Beiträge von Blue Horseshoe

@Edel Man charts in märkten die den kräften der naked short seller unterliegen sind für mich reine versuche der kaffeesatz leserei

bg bh

für den gut informierten nichts neues, sonst aber eine gute zusammenfassung...

Die Krise kommt: Florian Homm & Thorsten Schulte über Weltwirtschaft, Aktien, Gold und Silber!

bg bh

Auto Loan Delinquencies Spike To Great Recession Levels

Serious auto-loan delinquencies (those 90 days or more past due) jumped to 4.69% of outstanding auto loans and leases in the first quarter of 2019, according to New York Fed data. This put the auto-loan delinquency rate at the highest level since Q4 2010 and merely 58 basis points below the peak during the Great Recession in Q4 2010.
Delinquencies are at crisis levels, but the unemployment rate remains low. Perhaps people are simply buying cars they can’t afford.

Schwere Auto-Darlehens-Delinquenten (diese 90 Tage oder mehr überfällig) stiegen auf 4,69% der ausstehenden Auto-Darlehen und Leasingverträge im ersten Quartal 2019, nach Angaben der New York Fed. Damit lag die Autokredit-Delinquenzrate auf dem höchsten Niveau seit Q4 2010 und nur 58 Basispunkte unter dem Höchststand während der Großen Rezession im vierten Quartal 2010.

Die Ausfälle liegen auf Krisenniveau, aber die Arbeitslosenquote bleibt niedrig. Vielleicht kaufen die Leute einfach Autos, die sie sich nicht leisten können.

Übersetzt mit http://www.DeepL.com/Translator

[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.shtfplan.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/autodelinqent.png]

[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.shtfplan.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/carloandelinquent.png]

hängt natürlich nur "indirekt" zusammen, wenn unerwünscht einfach löschen.
bg bh

Aus dem Goldfaden hierhin verschoben
Edel

The Polar Silk Road Comes to Life as a New Epoch in History Begins

Speaking at China’s second Belt and Road conference in Beijing featuring 37 heads of state, Russia President Vladimir Putin unveiled the intention to unite Russia’s Northern Sea Route with China’s Maritime Silk Road. This announcement should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to the close strategic friendship between both countries since the 2015 announcement of an alliance between the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and Belt and Road Initiative. This extension of the Maritime Silk Road represents a powerful force to transform the last unexplored frontier on the Earth, converting the Arctic from a geopolitical zone of conflict towards a new paradigm of mutual cooperation and development.
Putin gave a speech at the BRI forum on April 26 stating:

“the Great Eurasian Partnership and Belt and Road concepts are both rooted in the principles and values that everyone understands: the natural aspiration of nations to live in peace and harmony, benefit from free access to the latest scientific achievements and innovative development, while preserving their culture and unique spiritual identity. In other words, we are united by our strategic, long-term interests.”

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Die Polarseidenstraße erwacht zum Leben als eine neue Epoche in der Geschichte beginnt.

Auf der zweiten Belt and Road-Konferenz Chinas in Peking mit 37 Staatschefs enthüllte Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin die Absicht, die Nordseeroute Russlands mit der Maritimen Seidenstraße Chinas zu verbinden. Diese Ankündigung sollte niemanden überraschen, der seit der Ankündigung eines Bündnisses zwischen der von Russland geführten eurasischen Wirtschaftsunion und der Belt and Road Initiative im Jahr 2015 auf die enge strategische Freundschaft zwischen beiden Ländern achtet. Diese Erweiterung der Seidenstraße stellt eine starke Kraft dar, um die letzte unerforschte Grenze auf der Erde zu verwandeln und die Arktis von einer geopolitischen Konfliktzone zu einem neuen Paradigma der gegenseitigen Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung zu machen.

Putin hielt eine Rede auf dem BRI-Forum am 26. April und erklärte:

"Die Konzepte der Großen Eurasischen Partnerschaft und des Gürtels und der Straße gründen sich beide auf die Prinzipien und Werte, die jeder versteht: das natürliche Bestreben der Nationen, in Frieden und Harmonie zu leben, freien Zugang zu den neuesten wissenschaftlichen Errungenschaften und innovativen Entwicklungen zu erhalten, während sie ihre Kultur und einzigartige spirituelle Identität bewahren. Mit anderen Worten, wir sind vereint durch unsere strategischen, langfristigen Interessen."

Übersetzt mit http://www.DeepL.com/Translator

orginal:
https://www.strategic-culture.…new-epoch-history-begins/

bg bh

erste us zahlen zu den pflanz quoten bei mais(corn)

According to the Department of Agriculture, over the past five years an average of 66 percent of all corn fields were already planted by now…

U.S. farmers seeded 30% of the U.S. 2019 corn crop by Sunday, the government said, lagging the five-year average of 66%. The soybean crop was 9% planted, behind the five-year average of 29%.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop progress reports, about 11% of Illinois corn has been planted and about 4% of soybeans. Last year at this time, 88% of corn and 56% of soybeans were in the ground.

generell finde ich wird der markt zunehmend interresant, einige agrarrohstoffe könnten weiter in ein angebotsdefizit laufen. auch die auswirkung der zölle könnten zusätzlich enorm sein.

bg bh

teilweise schon im minenthread, wenn unerwünscht bitte löschen.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Lowest-cost.jpg]

bg bh

Gold miners continue to cut costs, up production and finally – raise more money

Major gold producers’ global aggregated quarterly operating income followed the gold price and shrank by 44% during the year, from $2,500 million in Q1 to $1,400 million in Q3 and remained steady in Q4 2018 (Figure 1).While aggregated operating income is often considered a reliable indicator to measure operating efficiency and performance, we dug deeper in our Q4 2018 review of the gold mining industry. We looked at three further metrics: quarterly gold production, all-in sustaining costs, and capital raisings. The data indicates the following:
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mining.com/wp-conte…oads/2019/05/Figure-1.jpg]
...
For the Q4 ending December 31, 2018, global reported gold production totalled 16.8 Mozt. North America was the largest gold producer (4.3 Mozt), followed by Africa (3.5 Mozt), and Australia & Oceania (3.0 Mozt).
The three regions that drove the 2% quarter on quarter increase in global gold production were North America (+266 kozt, or up 7%), South America (+215 kozt, or up 10%), and Australia & Oceania (+148 kozt, or up 5% from Q3 2018). Production in Asia took a nosedive — dropping 32% due to significant decrease in gold output recorded at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mining.com/wp-conte…obal-gold-production-.jpg]
...
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mining.com/wp-conte…s/2019/05/Lowest-cost.jpg]
http://www.mining.com/gold-min…tion-finally-raise-money/

eventuell ein wenig off topic, aber die wirtschaft ists ja neben ua. der zentralbanken die noch alles hält:

Erst gestern meldeten wir vom Verband der deutschen Maschinenbauer schlechte Nachrichten. Die Auftragseingänge gehen stark zurück, alleine im März um 10% im Jahresvergleich. Heute folgt das Statistische Bundesamt mit Zahlen zu den Auftragseingängen für das Verarbeitende Gewerbe.
Im März sind die Auftragseingänge im Jahresvergleich um 6% gefallen.
Ein dramatischer Einbruch! Im Januar waren es im Jahresvergleich schon
-3,9%, und im Februar -8,4%.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/dra…-weiter-stark-ein-125600/

vg bh

The T-bill Lie: Even More Completely Full of It

When all this federal funds business started, the effective federal funds (EFF) rate was pretty well established at 16 bps above the RRP “floor.” It had been that way, consistently, all throughout Reflation #3, all throughout 2017. So consistent, that dependable spread was a very solid indication of reflation.
As of yesterday, EFF was…16 bps above RRP. It’s not at all the same, though. In between December 2017 and now, the Federal Reserve has instituted three “technical adjustments” to IOER. In other words, IOER has been reduced by 15 bps just to get EFF back to where it was when all this mess began.
This is no small thing.

[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.alhambrapartners.c…K-May-2019-IOER3-EFF2.png]
Nor is yesterday’s move. IOER was reduced 5 bps while EFF dropped only 4. That means EFF would still have been above where IOER was Wednesday, and it’s now 6 bps ahead of it. There’s an inexplicable upward pull, some tightness-like gravity which has latched onto the federal funds market of all things.

...

[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.alhambrapartners.c…ue-OI-UST-Bond-Recent.png]
....
https://www.alhambrapartners.c…re-completely-full-of-it/

ja danke, hatte ich mir gleich nach dem post gebookmarkt
jetzt muss ichs nur noch umsetzen

bg bh

@Edel Man vllt. nichts neues aber eben gut zusammengefasst. freut mich wenn es anklang findet. ans übersetzen denke ich "noch" nicht

Zitat von Edel Man

Hinter "bestes Miltär" möchte ich aber ein Fragezeichen setzten, eher "teuerster Militärapparat"....

absolut korrekt, wenn man bedenkt wie ineffizient so manche technik ist.

bg bh

Third Time’s The Charm, Or Is It Strike 3?

They will have to be forced into it. There is no voluntary rate cut and there never has been. This idea, however, is what’s being offered today in the wake of another stubborn line in the sand.
Central bankers are always, always the last to figure things out. Jay Powell was still talking about inflation and more aggressive monetary policy in the middle of December. He wasn’t thinking about any sort of “pause” back then, just a few months ago. He had his mind changed for him.
This new dovishness wasn’t his idea. It’s a stepped process.
At his press conference today, the Federal Reserve’s Chair (no more “man”) reiterated his new redline. Inflation is down again, unexpectedly, but it will surely pop right back up. What’s holding it back are some new “transitory” factors (mentioning airline tickets and financial services) that have, unexpectedly, replaced the old set of transitory factors (Verizon).
You may have noticed how there has been an almost continuous string of transitory factors that strung together add up to this persisting undershoot. Powell even had the nerve to use a form of that very word:
If we did see inflation running persistently below, that is something the committee would be concerned about and something we would take into account when setting policy.
[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.alhambrapartners.c…-PCE-Deflator2-Fed-BS.png]
....
[/quote]He has no idea what he is doing. Kicking and screaming. Don’t fight the Fed? The Fed always fights…reality.
[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.alhambrapartners.c…conomists-EFF-GC-Repo.png]
kompletter artikel unter:
https://www.alhambrapartners.c…-charm-or-is-it-strike-3/

China and Russia: Whoopin' Uncle Sam at His Own Game

Your Geopolitical Quiz for the Day:
Two countries are embroiled in a ferocious rivalry. One country’s meteoric growth has put it on a path to become the world’s biggest economic superpower while the other country appears to be slipping into irreversible decline. Which country will lead the world into the future?
Country A builds factories and plants, it employees zillions of people who manufacture things, it launches massive infrastructure programs, paves millions of miles of highways and roads, opens new sea lanes, vastly expands its high-speed rail network, and pumps profits back into productive operations that turbo-charge its economy and bolster its stature among the nations of the world.
Country B has the finest military in the world, it has more than 800 bases scattered across the planet, and spends more on weapons systems and war-making than all the other nations combined. Country B has gutted its industrial core, hollowed out its factory base, allowed its vital infrastructure to crumble, outsourced millions of jobs, off-shored thousands of businesses, plunged the center of the country into permanent recession, delivered control of its economy to the Central Bank, and recycled 96 percent of its corporate and financial profits into a stock buyback scam that sucks critical capital out of the economy and into the pockets of corrupt Wall Street plutocrats whose voracious greed is pushing the world towards another catastrophic meltdown.
....
http://www.unz.com/mwhitney/ch…ncle-sam-at-his-own-game/

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/…30/pdf/444nl3c8sy0vw2.pdf

30 APRIL 2019ASX ANNOUNCEMENTSalt Lake Potash Limited|ASX/AIMSO4|Ground Floor, 239 Adelaide Terrace, Perth WA 6000, AustraliaTel. +61 8 6559 5800 |Email: info@so4.com.au | so4.com.au| ABN 98 117 085 748MARCH 2019QUARTERLY REPORTThe Board of Salt Lake PotashLimited (the Companyor Salt Lake Potash) is pleased to present its Quarterly Report for the period ending 31 March 2019.
The Company is focussed on rapidly progressing the development ofits Lake WayProject, intended to be the first salt-lake brine Sulphate of Potash (SOP)production operation in Australia. Highlights for the quarter and subsequently include:
Significant Increase in the high-grade SOP resource at Lake Way
Mineral Resource Estimate for the whole of Lake Way contains 73million tonnes (Mt) of SOP using Total Porosity and 8.2Mtof SOPcalculated using DrainablePorosity, including:oMeasured–Lake Way Playa–6.9Mt (total porosity)&1.8Mt(drainable porosity)@ 15.4kg/m3oMeasured–Williamson Pit 32Kt (drainable porosity) @ 25.5kg/m3oIndicated–Paleochannel 3.7Mt (total porosity) & 1.4Mt (drainable porosity) @ 13.6kg/m3oInferred –Lake Way Playa & Paleovalley Sediment 62.2Mt (total porosity) & 5.0Mt (drainable porosity) @ 15.2kg/m3Lake Way confirmed as very high-grade with consistent brine chemistry both laterally and at depth, with an average grade of 14.5kg of SOP per cubic metre of brine across the LakeWay tenements (Measured and Indicated)The Company has successfully delineated a Paleochannel in excess of 30km in length along the eastern boundary of Lake Way, which supports the ability and optionality to produce brine from two separate sources (lake playa and paleochannel) The Mineral Resource Estimate for the ‘whole of lake’ will enable the Company to progress technical studies for a larger production scenario with an anticipated release date towards the end of Q2 2019

wieder einmal gute news

http://www.minaurum.com/s/News…Four-New-Vein-Zones-and-S...

guten morgen,

einen auszug des artikels habe ich bereits im verfall des hegemons geposted, allerdings finde ich passt diese grafik hier rein.

die grafik verdeutlicht sehr gut die aufschuldung, um den lebenstandard zu halten.

[Blockierte Grafik: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Struggle-Maintain-Living-Standard-Debt-Gap-040817.png]

falls unerwünscht bitte einfach löschen.

vg bh.

Boomers Are Facing A Financial Crisis

There is a “crisis” brewing in America which will affect more Americans than the subprime crisis in 2008.
What is it?
It’s the pension and retirement crisis.
According to a recent report from the National Retirement Planning Week the three “legs” of the retirement “stool” are Social Security, private pensions and personal savings. None are in great shape.

-The average Social Security check is $14,000 a year, hardly a cushy retirement.
-23% of boomers ages 56-61 expect to receive income from a private company pension plan; and,
-38% of older boomers expect a pension.
-45% of boomers have ZERO savings for retirement.
...
The chart below shows a compounded return rate of at 4-8% with $5000 annual dollar cost averaging (DCA) contributions made monthly (as noted above 10% of $50,000 which is roughly the median wage), and using variable rates of return from current valuation levels. (Chart assumes 35 years of age to start saving and expiring at 85)

[Blockierte Grafik: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Problem-W-Compounding.png]

...

A new report by Forbes states that 23% (nearly one in four) Americans are saving not even one penny from their paychecks.
As part of its 2019 Savings Survey, First National Bank of Omaha examined Americans’ habits, behaviors, and priorities when it comes to saving, monthly spending, and retirement planning. The findings showed that nearly 80% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.
The 2018 Planning & Progress Study gathered data in an online survey from over 2000 Americans over the age of 18. In that survey, they found:

- 78% said they were “extremely” or “somewhat” concerned about affording a comfortable retirement.
- 66% said there was some likelihood of outliving retirement savings.
- 21% have no retirement savings at all
- 33% of baby boomers have between $0 and $25,000 of retirement savings
- 75% of Americans reported a lack of confidence in receiving Social Security benefits and,
- 46% admitted to taking no steps to prepare for the likelihood they could outlive their retirement
...
https://realinvestmentadvice.c…acing-a-financial-crisis/

wie ich finde ausserordentlich schöne news:

auszug:
Tabakoroni Resource Update 1 million ounces of gold grading 5g/tMineralisation strike length now 1.8km with high-grade coherent zones Ongoing diamond drilling expected to further expand resourceMaiden Underground Resource provides strong support for futureunderground mine at Tabakoron

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/…29/pdf/444ljznj021rk7.pdf

"China lobbies ASEAN on yuan use, cracking dollar dominance
Beijing proposes Asian currencies, including yen, be added to emergency pool

SINGAPORE -- ASEAN and its East Asian partners are considering adding the yen and the yuan to their $240 billion currency swap safety net, a move that would reduce the framework's overreliance on the dollar while increasing China's economic clout."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Busine…cracking-dollar-dominance

Auryn Resources: An In-Depth Examination Of Its Sombrero Project, Peru

https://seekingalpha.com/artic…ion-sombrero-project-peru