Beiträge von Blue Horseshoe

    January 9, 2023
    Macro Update
    Mike Kozak Associate: Kate Nakagawa
    mike.kozak@cantor.com kate.nakagawa@cantor.com
    (416) 350-8152 (416) 849-5001
    Sales/Trading — Toronto: (416) 363-5757, (866) 442-4485
    See disclosure and a description of our recommendation structure at the end of this report.
    Equity Research
    URANIUM MACRO UPDATE
    2023 Uranium Outlook



    EVENT
    With U.S. conversion capacity set to come back on-
    line mid-year, in our view, this will create the
    dynamic of normalizing UF6 and SWU prices (both
    of which more than doubled last year) with the more
    substantial price gains finally cascading down the
    nuclear fuel cycle to mined uranium oxide (U3O8).
    BOTTOM LINE
    Positive – We expect the main uranium theme
    coming out of 2023 will be the transition from
    “underfeeding” to “overfeeding” at the enrichment
    level. By our estimation, this adds the equivalent of
    ~20 MMlb U3O8 in new demand at a minimum
    relative to a ~180 MMlb U3O8 steady-state market.
    FOCUS POINTS
    ▪ U3O8 Prices Set to Gain in 2023 – Conversion
    (UF6) was the bottleneck in the nuclear fuel
    cycle in 2022. With ConverDyn (Illinois) set to
    restart mid-year, the additional UF6 supply
    should then enable western-allied enrichment
    facilities to overfeed. We have already heard
    reports of new long-term enrichment contracts
    being signed by utilities with a higher specified
    tails assay, supportive of our thesis.
    ▪ Higher Prices May Come Fast – Against this
    positive backdrop (underfeeding → overfeeding
    enabled by new UF6 supply thereby driving
    greater U3O8 demand) we note the Sprott
    Physical Uranium Trust has regained its
    NAVPU premium. Spot market volumes
    remain exceedingly thin, and if/when U.U re-
    enters the market, we expect the U3O8 price
    action will likely be meaningfully higher and fast.
    ▪ Uranium Equities – The uranium equities
    underperformed the U3O8 price by ~35% in the
    last year. We believe this will revert in 2023,
    setting up an excellent “catch-up” trade.

    How General Soleimani kick-started the multipolar world




    By Pepe Escobar
    The consensus among future historians will be inevitable: the 2020s started with a diabolic murder.
    Baghdad airport, January 3, 2020, 00:52 a.m. local time. The assassination of Gen.QassemSoleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic RevolutionGuards Corps (IRGC), alongside Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha’abi, by laser-guided AGM-114 Hellfire missiles launched from two MQ-9 Reaper drones, was, in fact, murder as an act of war.
    This act of war set the tone for the new decade and inspired my book Raging Twenties: Great Power Politics Meets Techno-Feudalism, published in early 2021.
    The drone strikes at Baghdad airport, directly approved by the pop entertainer/entrepreneur then ruling the Hegemon, Donald Trump, constituted an imperial act engineered as a stark provocation, capable of engendering an Iranian reaction that would then be countered by, “self-defense”, packaged as “deterrence”.
    The proverbial narrative barrage spun to saturation, ruled it as a “targeted killing”: a pre-emptive op squashing Gen. Soleimani’s alleged planning of “imminent attacks” against US diplomats and troops.No evidence whatsoever was provided to support the claim.
    Everyone not only along the Axis of Resistance – Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Hezbollah – but across the Global South had been aware of how Gen. Soleimani led the fight against Daesh in Iraq from 2014 to 2015, and how he had been instrumental in retaking Tikrit in 2015.
    This was his real role – a true warrior of the war on terror, not the war of terror. For the Empire, to admit his aura glowed even across – vassalized - lands of Sunni Islam was anathema.
    It was up to then-Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, in front of Parliament in Baghdad, to offer the definitive context: Gen. Soleimani, on a diplomatic mission, had boarded a regular Cham Wings Airbus A320 flight from Damascus to Baghdad. He was involved in complex negotiations between Tehran and Riyadh, with the Iraqi Prime Minister as a mediator, and all that at the request of President Trump.
    So the imperial machine - following trademark, decades-long mockery of international law - assassinated a de-facto diplomatic envoy.
    In fact two, because al-Muhandis exhibited the same leadership qualities as Gen. Soleimani, actively promoting synergy between the battlefield and diplomacy, and was considered absolutely irreplaceable as a key political articulator in Iraq.
    Gen. Soleimani’s assassination had been “encouraged” since 2007 by a toxic mixture of Straussian neo-cons and neoliberal-cons -supremely ignorant of Southwest Asia’s history, culture, and politics – in tandem with the Israeli and Saudi lobbies in Washington.
    Trump, blissfully ignorant of international relations and foreign policy matters, could not possibly understand The Big Picture and its dire ramifications when he had only Israeli-firsters of the Jared“of Arabia” Kushner kind whispering in his ear.
    The King is now Naked
    But then everything went downhill.
    Tehran’s direct response to Gen.Soleimani’s assassination, in fact quite restrained considering the circumstances, was carefully measured to not unleash unrestrained imperial “deterrence”.
    It took the form of a series of precision missile strikes on the American-controlled Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq. The Pentagon, crucially, received an advance warning.
    And it was precisely that measured response that turned out to be the game-changer.
    Tehran’s message made it graphically clear – for the whole Global South to see - that the days of imperial impunity were over.
    Any exceptionalist with a working brain would not fail to get the message: we can hit your assets anywhere in the Persian Gulf - and beyond, at the time of our choosing.
    So this was the first instance in which Gen Soleimani, even after leaving his mortal coil, contributed to the birth of the multipolar world.
    Those precision missile strikes on the Ain al-Assad base told the story of a mid-ranked power, enfeebled by decades of sanctions, and facing a massive economic/financial crisis, responding to a unilateral attack by targeting imperial assets that are part of the sprawling 800-plus Empire of Bases.
    Historically, that was a global first –unheard of since the end of WWII.
    And that was clearly interpreted across Southwest Asia – as well as vast swathes of the Global South – for what it was: The King is now Naked.
    Surveying the shifting chessboard
    Three years after the actual murder, we may now see several other instances of Gen. Soleimani paving the way toward multipolarity.
    There was a regime change at the Hegemon – with Trumpism being replaced by a toxic neoliberal-con cabal, infiltrated by Straussian neo-cons, remote-controlling a senile warmongering entity barely qualified to read a teleprompter.
    This cabal’s foreign policy turned out to be supremely paranoid, antagonizing not only the Islamic Republic but also the Russia-China strategic partnership.
    These three actors happen to be the three top vectors in the ongoing process of Eurasia integration.
    Gen Soleimani may have foreseen, ahead of anyone else except Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, that the JCPOA – or Iran nuclear deal – was definitely six feet under, as the recent farce these past few months in Vienna made it clear.
    So he could have possibly foreseen that with a new administration under President EbrahimRaisi, Tehran would finally abandon any hope of being “accepted” by the collective West and wholeheartedly embrace its Eurasian destiny.
    Years before the assassination, Gen. Soleimanihad already envisaged a “normalization” between the Israeli regime and Persian Gulf monarchies.
    At the same time he was also very much aware of the Arab League 2002 position – shared, among others, by Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon: a “normalization” cannot even begin to be discussed without an independent – and viable - Palestinian state under 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as capital.
    Gen. Soleimani did see the Big Picture all across West Asia, from Cairo to Tehran and from the Bosphorus to the Bab-al-Mandeb. He certainly foresaw the inevitable “normalization” of Syria in the Arab world – and even with Turkey, now a work in progress.
    He arguably had imprinted in his brain the possible timeline followed by the Empire of Chaos to completely ditch Afghanistan – though certainly not the extent of the humiliating retreat – and how that would reconfigure all bets from West Asia to Central Asia.
    What he certainly didn’t know was that the Empire left Afghanistan to concentrate all its Divide and Rule/strategy of chaos bets on Ukraine, in a lethal proxy war against Russia.
    It’s easy to see Gen.Soleimani foreseeing Abu Dhabi’s Mohammad bin Zayed (MbZ), MbS’s mentor, placing his bets simultaneously on an Israel-Emirates free trade deal and a détente with Iran.
    He could have been part of the diplomatic team when MbZ’ssecurity advisor Sheikh Tahnoonmet with President Raisi in Tehran over a year ago, even discussing the war in Yemen.
    He could also have foreseen what took place this past weekend in Brasilia, on the sidelines of the dramatic return of Lula to the Brazilian presidency: Saudi and Iranian officials, in neutral territory, discussing their possible détente.
    As the whole chessboard across West Asia is being reconfigured at breakneck speed, perhaps the only developmentGen.Soleimani would not have foreseen is the petro-yuan displacing the petrodollar “in the space of three to five years”, as suggested by Chinese President Xi Jinping in his recent landmark summit with the GCC.
    I have a dream
    The profound reverence towards Gen. Soleimani expressed by every layer of Iranian society – from the grassroots to the leadership – has certainly translated into honoring his life’s work by finding Iran’s deserved place in multipolarity.
    Iran is now solidified as one of the key nodes of the New Silk Roads in Southwest Asia. The Iran-China strategic partnership, boosted by Tehran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)in 2002, is as strong geoeconomically and geopolitically as the interlocking partnerships with two other BRICS members, Russia and India. In 2023, Iran is set to become a member of BRICS+.
    In parallel, the Iran/Russia/China triad will be deeply involved in the reconstruction of Syria – complete with BRI projects ranging from the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Eastern Mediterranean railway to, in the near future, the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline, arguably the key factor that provoked the American proxy war against Damascus.
    Soleimaniis today revered at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, at the al-Aqsa mosque in Palestine, at the dazzling late baroque Duomo in Ragusa in southeast Sicily, at a stupa high in the Himalayas, or a mural in a street in Caracas.
    All across the Global South, there’s a feeling in the air: the new world being born – hopefully, more equal and fair - was somehow dreamed of by the victim of the murder that unleashed the Raging Twenties.
    Pepe Escobar is a Eurasia-wide geopolitical analyst and author. His latest book is Raging Twenties.


    https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/…rted-the-multipolar-world

    ich habe auch genug multi bagger, aber ja der gesamt sektor ist eigentlich primed für den run up.

    Ich zahle 170€ für den Raummeter Buche und das gibt warm

    brennholz ist bei uns in der familie aus.. und es rufen immer noch leute an wie nie zuvor... nur noch alte bestandskunden und bodenständige leute werden dieses jahr berücksichtigt.

    uran ansich sowie uec werden im forbes als mining favorites 2023 gelistet, einige fondsmanager/adviser werden dazu befragt, wie adrian day, peter krauth(silver stock investor, the great silver bull)


    der beitrag über uran und uec ist von gerado del real(adviser für hni, instis - resource stock digest, junior resource monthly und ich glaube junior resource trader)


    In the 14 years I’ve been investing in the resource space I've never seen such bullish fundamentals for uranium. Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) — a Top Pick for more conservative investors in 2023 — is the fastest-growing supplier of fuel for the green energy transition to a low-carbon future.
    It is the largest, diversified North American-focused uranium company, advancing the next generation of low-cost, environmentally friendly In-Situ Recovery (ISR) mining uranium projects in the United States and high-grade conventional projects in Canada.
    The company has two production-ready ISR hub and spoke platforms in South Texas and Wyoming, anchored by fully licensed and operational central processing plants. UEC also has seven U.S. ISR uranium projects with all their major permits in place.
    The company's operations are managed by professionals with decades of hands-on experience in the key facets of uranium exploration, development, and mining. It has no debt and $173 million of cash and liquid assets. In addition it employs a differentiated profile on the 100% unhedged strategy, but almost the third or fourth largest resource base in the world right now for any uranium company.
    2023 will be a breakout year for uranium and uranium equities. Geopolitical events coupled with the nest supply/demand fundamentals I’ve ever seen should propel best in class companies like UEC to new all-time highs making investors that position correctly a lot of money.


    https://www.forbes.com/sites/moneyshow/2023/01/04/mining-favorites-for-2023-gold-silver-uranium--lithium/

    es ist in der momentanen situation völlig egal ob sich öl abiotisch bildet oder nicht.
    wie ich schon öfter schrieb, selbst wenn es sich so verhalten würde, entnehmen wir viel zu schnell & in viel zu hoher quantität. es ist schlicht nicht genug billiges öl vorhanden um den gewohnten lebensstandard für die goldene milliarde an menschen zu gewährleisten(geschweige denn für das gleiche wohlstandsniveau für den rest der welt).
    das öl so schnell nicht ausgeht steht ja nicht zu debatte, aber öl welches den gewohnten westlichen lebensstandard garaniert eben sehr wohl.

    ich bin ja schon einmal auf die entwicklung in den wasserärmeren regionen chinas eingegangen.
    ich vermute nach wie vor stark das sie in diesen regionen in zukunft bedarf auch über tmsr abdecken werden.
    zb der tsmr-lf1 benötigt kein kühlwasser!




    Chinese molten-salt reactor cleared for start up

    The Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics (SINAP) - part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) - has been given approval by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment to commission an experimental thorium-powered molten-salt reactor, construction of which started in Wuwei city, Gansu province, in September 2018.




    In January 2011, CAS launched a CNY3 billion (USD444 million) R&D programme on liquid fluoride thorium reactors (LFTRs), known there as the thorium-breeding molten-salt reactor (Th-MSR or TMSR), and claimed to have the world's largest national effort on it, hoping to obtain full intellectual property rights on the technology. This is also known as the fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR). The TMSR Centre at SINAP at Jiading, Shanghai, is responsible.
    Construction of the 2 MWt TMSR-LF1 reactor began in September 2018 and was reportedly completed in August 2021. The prototype was scheduled to be completed in 2024, but work was accelerated.
    "According to the relevant provisions of the Nuclear Safety Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Safety Supervision and Administration of Civilian Nuclear Facilities, our bureau has conducted a technical review of the application documents you submitted, and believes that your 2 MWt liquid fuel thorium-based molten salt experimental reactor commissioning plan (Version V1.3) is acceptable and is hereby approved," the Ministry of Ecology and Environment told SINAP on 2 August.
    It added: "During the commissioning process of your 2 MWt liquid fuel thorium-based molten salt experimental reactor, you should strictly implement this plan to ensure the effectiveness of the implementation of the plan and ensure the safety and quality of debugging. If any major abnormality occurs during the commissioning process, it should be reported to our bureau and the Northwest Nuclear and Radiation Safety Supervision Station in time."
    The TMSR-LF1 will use fuel enriched to under 20% U-235, have a thorium inventory of about 50 kg and conversion ratio of about 0.1. A fertile blanket of lithium-beryllium fluoride (FLiBe) with 99.95% Li-7 will be used, and fuel as UF4.
    The project is expected to start on a batch basis with some online refuelling and removal of gaseous fission products, but discharging all fuel salt after 5-8 years for reprocessing and separation of fission products and minor actinides for storage. It will proceed to a continuous process of recycling salt, uranium and thorium, with online separation of fission products and minor actinides. The reactor will work up from about 20% thorium fission to about 80%.
    If the TMSR-LF1 proves successful, China plans to build a reactor with a capacity of 373 MWt by 2030.
    As this type of reactor does not require water for cooling, it will be able to operate in desert regions. The Chinese government has plans to build more across the sparsely populated deserts and plains of western China, complementing wind and solar plants and reducing China's reliance on coal-fired power stations. The reactor may also be built outside China in Belt and Road Initiative nations.


    https://www.world-nuclear-news…ctor-cleared-for-start-up


    bg bh

    Dass lässt sich nur nachhaltiger Veränderung im Supply- oder Demand-Bereich erklären. Industrielle Abwanderung/Produktionsverlagerung sind hier das Thema.

    hm dachte ich bin ganz allein der bezahlte schlipstragende verschwörungstheoretiker 8o [smilie_happy]

    Die großen Entdeckungen wurden immer von Praktikern gemacht.

    so? echt jetzt? naturwissenschaftliche definitionen und errungenschaften nur von "praktikern"? .
    emc2 :hae: - apropos h-bomb oder f=m*a :tired: etc... oder auch alles rund um nikola tesla? seltsame definition von praktikern?...

    china hat den "5" jahres plan mit einem update versehen, geplant sind nun 120GW bis 2030 und nicht mehr 100gw.


    Warum rechnen wir heute nicht mehr in Sklaven?

    wenn du deine blechtrommel aus der hand legst, kommst du selber drauf.



    Warum eigentlich glaubst du felsenfest daran das alle blöd sind außer dir?

    ist mal eben einfach so ne unterstellung deinerseits aber ok, von dir weiß ich allerdings nun - von dem thema hast du nicht viel ahnung.


    grüße bh

    Alles auf den Eroi zu reduzieren bringt es auch nicht. Und bei den nackten Zahlen darf man die Inflation (oder Teuerung) nicht vergessen.

    irgendwie hast du den eroei nicht verstanden? dieser hat rein gar nichts mit inflation oder teuerung zu tun.
    eroei= energy return on energy invested | eroi energy return on invested - und hat nichts mit kapital-input zu tun
    sondern rein mit dem energetischem aufwand. teuerung in folge von inflation ist ein effekt der preissteigerungen bei öl, ein anderer ebenso elementarer ist aber eben der fallende erntefaktor.


    und der erntefaktor/eroei (nicht nur von öl) ist die basis sämtlicher ökonomischer, staatlicher & privater aktivität,
    die input kosten bestimmen wesentlich mit. damit ist eben der eroei sehr wohl die basis.



    Du hast zu wenig Vertrauen in die Menschheit mit den Bedingungen klar zu kommen und sich anzupassen.

    warum hast du dann in gold und silber investiert.... und warum verzichtest du nicht freiwillig auf einen teil deines wohlstandes und passt dich zb. indischem durchschnittsniveau an.

    Die interessante Frage ist doch, bei welchem Eroei bzw. Aufwand pro bbl wird Mineralöl als Energieträger uninteressant. Die Antwort hängt von den Rahmenbedingungen ab und ist z.T. auch politisch.

    darüber habe ich oft genug geschrieben. inklusive dem economic treshold und andere rahmenbedingungen(fiat money/geldsystem).


    @Beowulf weiterhin schrieb ich "missionieren" in ""!! - damit habe ich lediglich aussagen wollen eine weitere diskussion zum thema hatte ich nicht vor und jeder kann denken was er möchte und ich werde darauf nicht weiter eingehene im sinne eines überzeugungsversuches.


    viele verstehen noch nicht einmal warum sogenannte regenerative(wind, solar) nicht als grundversorgung funktionieren können.


    Bereits der DFR könnte diesen Schritt bringen, weil damit der Eroei der Kernenergie etwa um den Faktor 10 steigt und noch dazu der bisherige Abfall als Brennstoff verfügbar wird.

    der kleinste dfr hat rechnerisch einen eroei von ca 1000, das wäre dein faktor 10 zu aktueller kkw technik. allerdings hat der dfr "in groß" - DFR1500 einen eroei von 1:5000. also faktor 40-50.
    2,1 us-cent kw/h!


    Auch nicht vergessen werden sollte die Frage, ob Erdöl/-gas überhaupt biologischen Ursprung sind.

    du liest meine beiträge gar nicht richtig ?
    darauf bin ich schon vor jahren eingegangen und habe es auch in der aktuellen diskussion verlinkt.
    fakt ist, der lebensstandard der goldenen milliarde benötigt in etwa einen erntefaktor von 1:30.
    was ist mit den anderen ca 6,5 mrd menschen, streben die nicht auch nach "mehr" ?
    wie ich weiter vorne in der diskussion schon schrieb:
    aber selbst wenn öl abiotisch wäre, entnehmen wir mehr als nachkommt da der eroei auch in den konventionellen feldern nicht steigt, nicht konstant bleibt, sondern weiter fällt.
    Klimawahn...


    bg bh