Beiträge von simpel

Zitat

Original von LuckyFriday
es gibt auch noch anderes im Leben als goldseiten lesen :D.

Wohl wahr, kämpf Dich trotzdem mal durch, es lohnt sich. Muß ja nicht heute abend sein...

Gruß

Hallo Lucky,

ich bin zwar nicht Edelman, erlaube mir aber dennoch zu antworten. On the long run, we´re all dead (stammt sogar von John M. Keynes, wenn ich mich nicht irre ;)), trifft heute, so gaube ich, nicht mehr zu. Die Welt verändert sich heute, durch Internet und die global vernetzten Handelssysteme, die auch großteils noch automatisiert funktionieren ("Blackboxes"), rasant. Ich glaube daß, sobald ein signifikantes Stellglied nicht mehr funktioniert, es zu einem nicht mehr beherrschbaren Tsunami kommt. Ob wir als Goldinvestoren danach besser stehen, weiß ich auch nicht. Zumindest ist die Chance besser als beim Papierinvestor. Meiner Meinung nach kann man diesen "perfect storm" geradezu fühlen, die Situation spitzt sich zu. Die unglaubliche weltweite Liquidität, nach keynesianischen Ideen geschaffen, wird dazu führen. Diese Bereinigung muß auch geschehen. Was danach passiert, wird man sehen, man muß auch immer die unfaßbare Dummheit der Politiker, sofern das überhaupt geht, einkalkulieren. Eine brilliante Idee, wie man das System revolutionieren könnte, habe ich hier gelesen:

Why the Global Financial System is About to Collapse

John Law meldet sich zurück...

Grüße vom Simpel

Report: Fannie Mae Manipulated Accounting
Tuesday May 23, 11:48 am ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Federal Report: Fannie Mae Manipulated Accounting, Deceived Investors

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employees at mortgage giant Fannie Mae manipulated accounting so that executives could collect millions in bonuses as senior management deceived investors and stonewalled regulators at a company whose prestigious image was phony, a federal agency charged Tuesday. [...]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060523/fannie_mae.html?.v=7

Wenn der größte Hypotheken-Rückversicherer ins Wanken gerät, könnte es heiß im Dow Jones hergehen.

Grüße
Simpel

Zitat

Posted On: Tuesday, May 23, 2006, 11:04:00 AM EST

The Commodity Market Bull Is Dead?

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs

The commodity market bull is dead? You have to be kidding. I think you are watching too much financial TV or the wrong stars.

I consider the recent market to have proven two concepts:

1. The volatility coming in gold is going to make history.
2. My estimate of $1650 being the high for gold is probably wrong. It will be higher.

The importance of .8050 on the USDX cannot be overstated. It is a 16 year slightly up trending support line that if broken, breaks the back of the Camel. The best action at that point for the short is a cover and reinstatement of the position on the break. Less than .85 has broken six years of support, opening up the probability of a test of the low. Let the present Fibonacci retracement line guide you as a trader.

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BTW: Fannie Mae vom Handel ausgesetzt 8o, da brodelte ja schon lange die Gerüchteküche!

Gruß

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
Jetzt noch einen Klodeckel aus Silber dazu, der Hygiene zuliebe.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bedbathlinen.com/images/products/med/dollarmed.jpg]

Stimmt, woraus sind sie Halter eigentlich... Nickel, Chrom, ...?

Könnte aber auch unter der unteren Rolle stehen...

edit: RS

Zitat

Posted On: Monday, May 22, 2006, 12:09:00 PM EST

In The News: Monday, May 22nd

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

Unless the dollar can be made bright, gold cannot lose it shine. Maybe the Bank of England will consider this.

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Klasse Statement !

Frei nach dem Motto: the only one who doesn´t know, that he´s dead, is the dollar himself...

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.freakingnews.com/entries/2500/2547cIKh_w.jpg]

Gruß vomSimpel

edit: RS

Zitat

Posted On: Friday, May 19, 2006, 8:06:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs

It is time for a review. For a generational bull market in gold to exist the following is required. What has amazed me is how well gold has acted with major pillars still not fully in place. The price of gold has hit the recovery high of 1980 at the $720 area. That is outstanding when you consider the axiom below.

I told you as gold is roaring up to:

1. Fasten your seat belts.
2. Gold may range $100 in short bursts.
3. Remove your entire margin on anything gold and silver.
4. This was the Big Kahuna.
5. Gold is heading for $1650 and I might well be conservative in my expectation.

There are five elements that must be in place in order to have a generational bull market in gold.

1. We certainly have a recognized top in the US dollar but gold had rallied into a contra-trend dollar move.
2. We have not had a recognized top in US Treasury instruments yet the rise in the gold price has been spectacular. A recognized top in long term treasuries means a break down in the very long term up trend line which has not yet occurred, but is threatening now to occur. Even without this pillar in place gold has been spectacular in its ability to reach the 1980 recovery high.
3. There is no question we had and will continue to have a bull market in general commodities. That alone cannot be given credit for the ability of gold to rise so far to the 1980 recovery high.
4. The Triple Deficits are firmly in place.
5. Distrust in US paper Assets has not been reflected in US equities, yet gold rallied from the $248 into the high of the 1980 gold recovery at the $720 level.

It is spectacular that gold has been so strong with only Pillars #3 and #4 firmly in place.

Can you imagine what level the gold price will accomplish when all of “The Five Golden Pillars” are in place simultaneously? Consider what the price of gold will be when the long term trend line on the 30 Year US Treasury bond breaks down, when US equities are not so popular and the US dollar is below USDX .8050. My answer is a gold price of at least $887.50.

Please do not let the nature of the gold price changes get you emotionally distraught. They are ferocious and will get even more manic. It is going to range $100 a day soon. You will be slaughtered if you panic on the down and turn into a true believer on the up. You will be slaughtered if you use ANY margin at all. That is only for the pros. Many of them will be ground beef before 2006 is over.

You will prosper if you get a grip and hold it tight. My grip is that we are in a generational bull market that has outperformed even until today. It has done what no one would believe even three months ago. It is acting like a major bull market now in its volatility and volume. The gold price which I expect is now looking too low for the reasons stated above.

I am more bullish on gold today than I have ever been in my 46 years of experience. The following was presented to you in 2003 when the goal of $480 then presented as a market target was consider totally LOCO.

“The Five Golden Pillars”

1. A recognized top in the U. S. Dollar.
2. A recognized top in the U. S. Treasury Long Bond.
3. A bullish phase within general commodity markets:
4. Triple Deficits of U. S. Budget, Current Account and Trade firmly in place.
5. Trust in Paper Assets must be declining.

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Mal sehen, ob es wirklich die "big Kahuna" war. Auf jeden Fall müssen noch viele, die von den Top-Callers aus dem Markt "beraten" wurden, wieder einsteigen. Von allen anderen ganz zu schweigen...

Grüsse vom Simpel

Edit: RS

Hallo in die Runde,

die Lage scheint für die LME mehr als ernst:

Zitat

Posted On: Thursday, May 18, 2006, 3:49:00 PM EST

The "Operations" Continued...

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

It is a fact this gold market is NOT about gold, but rather copper, zinc and nickel.

The geniuses that trade differences rather than take outright positions (basically the hedge fund geeks) who made so much money over many years trading enormous positions have gone badly wrong on the LME in copper, zinc and nickel. The geeks have once again put a system into financial malfunction and cried to their central bank and treasury to rescue them.

The hedge funds have been the favored borrowers of international and especially British banks. This is due to their supposedly low-risk spread trades and thereupon OTC derivatives. These have gone so badly the LME itself fears the worst. The Exchange Chairman would inform the central bank and the British Treasury of the impending problem, seeking assistance. It is not only the LME that has the problem but all the banks that have lent huge amounts of money to these hedge fund geeks and their “Carry Trade.”

If I were the Chancellor of the Exchequer or the President of the Bank of England it would be much easier to attempt to break the market than put both the LME and the lending banks back together for hedge fund geeks not in the hottest of hot financial water.

What is at risk here is the hedge fund geeks, the exchange, lending banks and the reputation of Great Britain as a financial center.

Now what do we do?

The main item that opposes this tactic is the level of the US dollar. In order to keep the price of gold cold you need to make the dollar hot, not simply wiggle it on the upside. The Fib line the dollar has been rotating around is now acting as a support line and becomes a critical measure. Should it fail to hold the dollar up gold will move up and the BOE will, as they always have, pull out. The gold market can eat any central bank today. Just look at the gold ETFs that are now bigger in gold holdings than the majority of all central banks.

Another measure of how this strategy is working for the BOE will be how the spread between near cash and far copper, zinc and nickel acts. To benefit, the geek hedge funds need the spread difference between near and far to collapse, which is a bearish indicator for copper. If the spread stalls the strategy is in trouble. If the spread moves out then the strategy of pounding gold to avoid an LME crisis fails.

The key to gold’s future is not necessarily gold itself but the action of the US dollar and the spread between near and far on copper, zinc and nickel in London.

We are in a major bull market in gold, copper, zinc and copper which is far from over. The BOE “Save the Bacon” strategy will fail and they will have to liquefy the system, arranging loans to bail out the perps.

The BOE has tried this before and never succeeded as a market manipulator. That is because the BOE has never learned how a consistently successful manipulator works. You can only manipulate a market in the direction it wishes to go. In gold, copper, zinc and nickel that is up, not down.

Gold is going to $1650.

Margin is a financial death wish.

Courage lies in understanding.

Your emotions are always WRONG in gold.

Get a grip and hold that grip

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Meltdown in London? Nach dem Sell-off aller Metalle am Montag und den korrespondierenden Währungsschwankungen muß eigentlich auch dem Ungläubigsten bewußt geworden sein, daß massiv manipuliert wird...

Simple Grüße

Hallo,

mich läßt das seltsame Gefühl nicht los, daß wir genau an dem Punkt sind, auf den wir Goldbugs schon lange warten. Die Börsen im Sinkflug, extreme Volatilität bei den Währungen und den Edelmetallen, seltsame konzertierte Aktionen und aufkommende Panik. Der Kampf Fiatmoneysystem gegen Gold. Jetzt werden alle Register gezogen, ich kann mich natürlich irren, es bleibt zumindest spannend...

Nicht so simpel

Alle Indikatoren auf Crash-Modus?

[...]

Now, as far as this correction goes, my gut says it will not be deep, nor long. In fact, once the HUI has broken through angled overhead resistance in the 400 area- the HUI will rocket off like Gold did once it broke through the $450, then $550 areas. IMO, the HUI through 400 in an appreciable way will give us 740 over the 6 to 8 months following the break- though the usual corrections will occur in steps.

Think about the above. How many people have you seen who seem ready to puke their guts out? There was no run-away move higher in the HUI, it has corrected all along the way.....so far. Right now, investors are looking at the PM stocks take a dive, and they are saying to themselves, "Oh, I was right to lighten up, my favorite top-caller was right-even if he called a top 4 times before we got one, I am so glad I am only 30% in PM stocks. Wrong! This PM stock market is loaded with gunpowder and ready to go off at any time. [And it will when the big boys are loaded and ready....in fact, I think the market makers were probably out of inventory.] After scanning dozens of charts, there are many PM stocks that have broken through the moving averages and now are only retesting those MA's before going into lift-off mode, IMO. Look at the chart that Mr. Bug showed, today, of LNXGF. Most look much like it does. It may take some weeks to get the moving averages back in line, but it won't take a lot.

[...]

ganzer Artikel: http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/goldrunner051606.html

Gruß
Simpel

Danke fürs Willkommen

keine Angst, Sinclair lese ich seit den Anfängen seiner Website, früher auch die alten Threads bei WO (Danke nochmal an Sovereign, der mir die Augen geöffnet hat) und seit es läuft, natürlich auch hier. Nervös wird man an den Tagen, wie letzten drei, natürlich doch schon mal.

Gruß
Simpel

PS: noch etwas Balsam für die geschundenen Seelen der Longs:
Stay focused on the golden ring

laut Jim Sinclair:

"Dear CIGAs,

The punch the markets took yesterday has participants in a mood akin to a person sitting on a razor blade, terrified to do anything.

I recommend for those that did not read all of yesterday's postings to revert to the item that concerned a near financial failure of the entire carry trade, not copper alone. A failure of such magnitude on the catangos (the difference in spread between cash and futures) due to the bull move might have threatened the financial structure of the historic London Metals Exchange. This would certainly require a central bank rescue.

The drubbing of gold took overnight in the US was the catalyst to send the entire commodity market into panic mode. This was an orchestrated hatchet job via the British Central Bank making a loan of gold to an entity that sold with abandon to create the result. That was the decision anyone in charge might have made.

The $682 magnet functioned yesterday. The dollar stinks and the commodity world is like a boxer that took an upper cut with a glass chin, wobbling in the corner and attempting to get its focus back. "

Wenn das stimmt...