Zur Abwechslung mal wieder der Tagesbericht von GATA/ Midas (Bill Murphy).
Es ist einfach das beste und gehaltvollste, was man überhaupt zum
Goldgeschehen jeden Tag lesen kann.
(ich schaue erst seit kurzem wieder öfters 'rein, hatte früher mal
ein Abo. Das Problem ist nur, dass man fast "süchtig" danach wird.
Man verbringt dann täglich verdammt viel (viel zu viel!) Zeit nur
mit dem Lesen dieser stories und das kann's auch nicht sein.
Aber trotzdem: immer wieder interessant.)
Goldlöwe
===============================================================
March 16 – Gold $652.20 up $5.90 - Silver $13.10 up 15 cents
Gold And Silver On The Move
If we move in mass, be it ever so circuitously, we shall attain our object; but if we break into squads, everyone pursuing the path he thinks most direct, we become an easy conquest to those who can now barely hold us in check." -- Thomas Jefferson to William Duane, 1811. ME 13:29
GO GATA!
Having traded, or been around, the futures markets for 30 years, I use whatever tools and input I can to try and figure out what is going on. Fundamental analysis is THE key to understanding the big picture, and comes first. Second, it is always important to understand the technical picture. And third it is essential to stay on top of day to day input to be on the watch for market developments which could change, or enhance, a developing scenario.
That said, I moan and groan about the technical picture for gold because it is a manipulated market. However, that doesn’t mean we throw the baby out with the bathwater. Where TA stinks is on gold strength … meaning just when gold ought to really accelerate and take off to the upside, it is almost inevitable The Gold Cartel will make their move to squash the price, after sucking in an excess amount of speculators and funds. Over the years there has been an exception here and there (like after Gold Rush 21), but they have been just that, exceptions. What is important to keep in mind is that for gold to what we expect it to do price-wise, the exceptions of the past will become the rule of the future.
As mentioned most of this week, the gold fundamentals are fabulous, off the charts. When it comes to its technicals, gold put in a 50% correction off its recent move to near $690 AND, for some strange reason, its open interest suddenly collapsed the other day (second largest drop since 1988). It certainly was not mainly due to spec liquidation because the silver open interest went up and the base metals were steady. Not once in 30 years has the gold open interest plummeted like that without the silver open interest going down a meaningful amount (much less going UP), if it were due to mostly to the specs running for the hills.
Something else occurred. No matter what it was, the gold open interest quickly was 40,000 contracts off its recent high. Perhaps the high open interest was not due to excessive spec long positions because, as noted for many weeks, the silver open interest was always diverging from gold and was nowhere near its old highs (20,000 contracts lower). Regardless, the drop greatly lessened concerns over more spec liquidation coming. Thus, the weird OI drop has become a technical plus.
Gold is now $14 off its correction low and has resumed its relentless trek higher:
April gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/47
My technical work is amateurish. Adrian’s is much more sophisticated. Last evening, with gold plus or minus, he sent the following to us:
Bill,
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
The Market Force Analysis for gold looks SUPER bullish. The market force indicator just dropped to the lower support line. This is a low risk entry point. This is unequivocally ALL SYSTEMS GO. There are no "ifs", "ands" or "buts". Gold is off to the races.
Cheers
Adrian
So far so good.
Gold was up $9 today on the Comex until the US stock market began to weaken sharply. The Gold Cartel is petrified of the gold barometer rising when the US stock market is under pressure with concern over increasing inflation, even as the US housing market is under severe pressure due to the subprime issues. Then, of course, you have the Bush Administration under siege with a new scandal showing up every other day.
What this panicky knee-jerk response by The Gold Cartel shows me lately is how DESPERATE they are becoming. They know they are gradually running out of central bank supply to bomb the market and to meet growing demand. Thus, they are doing all they can to diminish demand appetite by knocking gold down when it should be rising sharply. Should the general investing public finally think buying gold is a sound thing to do, in order to counter growing concern over US financial/economic markets, it is ALL OVER for the bums … and they know it!
Yesterday I mentioned the bottleneck in London over large silver bars used in industry. While it is to a much lesser extent, there appears to be a similar situation developing over large gold bars in Europe. A veteran of the metals industry (trade) called yesterday to say that the premium on those bars went to the highest he could remember this week before falling back. The kilobars went to $16 over spot before retreating. It bears watching.
The importance of silver taking out $13 to the upside is obvious:
<http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/57
As the day wore on in New York, silver held its own while gold was nudged down from its highs. With the way base metals are trading, silver is severely undervalued.
LONDON (AFX) – "Nickel and tin hit unprecedented highs as LME stocks fell again on the day."
All the base metals outside of zinc closed higher again in London. The base metals shorts are being routed.
May copper closed up 2.3cents at $3.011. That lurch to take out $3, mentioned in Wednesday’s MIDAS with copper at $2.82, did not take very long, to put it mildly.
Not only are the base metals on a tear, but the dollar is continuing its breakdown …closing down .44 to 82.93.
The gold open interest fell another 2323 contracts to 365,653 and the silver open interest dropped 1564 contracts to 111,516. The silver OI is more than 30,000 contracts off its highs of the last year. It is set up to move SHARPLY higher and probably so in the near future.
The gold COT report showed the large specs decreasing longs by 7,343 contracts and decreasing shorts by 1987 contracts. It revealed the commercials increasing longs by 15,508 contracts and also increasing shorts by 9,113 contracts. All of this occurred before the dramatic OI drop on Wednesday.
The euro finished up .29 to 133.09.
Crude oil fell 44 cents to $57.11 per barrel.
A surprise: I did not see one comment anywhere, or hear from anyone, re Greenspan’s comment that a rising price of gold would not be an indication of inflationary pressures in the US.
More gold goodies:
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.41, PM 4c, with world gold at $646.55 and $651.35. Quite adequate, and too thin, for legal imports. This is basis Delhi: other Indian importing cities remained positive in the afternoon. The rupee firmed to a three-week high but the stock market fizzled, losing early gains to finish down 0.9%.
TOCOM was mildly positive. On volume equivalent to 22,114 lots (+3.9%) open interest edged up 2.54 tonnes (818 Comex equivalent); the active contact closed up 10 yen and world gold went out $1.15 above the NY close.
Thursday’s up $4.60 day saw 57,915 lots trading on Comex and the combined equivalent of 32,007 NY lots in Chicago. Open interest lost 2,323 contacts in NY and the combined equivalent of 439 NY lots on the CBOT: a total of 8.59 tonnes. A clear pattern over the past week of rising open interest on weak days and declining on up days demonstrates that short selling was indeed the dominant influence recently.
On Friday around 4am NY time the $US abruptly weakened. Interestingly, gold responded far more than a mere FX rate reflection: Euro gold rose some E5. Unsurprisingly gold ran into selling around the $655 point which was also the obstacle on either side of last weekend. The regular close was up $6.80 with about 33,000 NY lots in combined equivalent trade in Chicago and just under 50,000 in NY.
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The DOW fell 49 to 12,110 and the DOG gave up 6 to 2372.
22:01 Japan's Ministry of Finance Watanabe says only some short-term carry trades have been unwound -- Reuters
That makes sense … the yen has not really moved that much yet.
What no one outside the GATA camp talks about is the huge amount of GOLD CARRY TRADES that are out there. The interest rate charged on gold is not that much higher than that of the yen, very close. The gold borrowers have the same problem as the yen borrowers … when it becomes a good deal more expensive, a cheap loan becomes a very expensive one. Their big picture protection is to buy calls of some sort.
US economic news:
08:30 Feb CPI reported 0.4% vs. consensus 0.3%; ex-Food & Energy 0.2% vs. consensus 0.2%
Prior CPI unrevised from 0.2%; ex-Food & Energy unrevised from 0.3%.
* * * * *
Feb consumer prices rise on energy cost bounce
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices climbed more than expected in February as energy costs bounced back from a January drop and food prices climbed at the steepest rate in nearly two years, a Labor Department report on Friday showed.
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent January rise, while core prices that exclude food and energy items were up 0.2 percent following a 0.3 percent January gain.
Wall Street analysts had forecast a more moderate rise of 0.3 percent in overall consumer prices although the core price rise was in line with forecasts.
On a year-over-year basis, core prices were up 2.7 percent, likely enough to keep Federal Reserve policy-makers wary about potential inflation when they hold a two-day policy-setting meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday where they are expected to again keep interest rates on hold….
Food prices continued to rise sharply, up 0.8 percent in February after a 0.7 percent January increase. It was the largest rise in overall food prices since a matching increase in April 2005…
-END-
09:15 Industrial Production 1% vs. consensus 0.3%; Capacity Utilization 82% vs. consensus 81.3%
Prior Industrial Production revised to (0.3%) from (0.5%); prior Capacity Utilization revised to 81.4% from 81.2%.
* * * * *
10:00 Mar Univ. of Michigan Confidence reported 88.8 vs. consensus 89
Prior reading 91.3.
* * * * *
OIL:
IEA Is Disappointed by OPEC's Decision, Warns on Inventories
2007-03-15 11:48 (New York)
March 15 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 nations, expressed disappointment over OPEC's decision to maintain its output targets today, warning that inventories could fall rapidly.
``We would have liked to have seen greater reassurance that OPEC will ensure markets are amply supplied,'' said Lawrence Eagles, the lead author of the IEA's monthly report. `` It doesn't take long for stockpiles to fall from five-year averagelevels.''
Earlier this week, the IEA said that stockpiles in industrialized countries were headed for their biggest first-quarter decline in 10 years because of OPEC supply cuts and cold February weather.
-END-
This one takes the cake:
SEC Allows Auction-Rate Manipulators When They Disclose Intent
By Darrell Preston
March 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission, after sanctioning Wall Street's biggest financial institutions for misdeeds in the $260 billion auction-rate market, now lets the same firms manipulate investor purchases as long as they disclose their intentions.
Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and 13 more investment banks get inside knowledge of bids when they run auctions to set the interest rates on the securities. They can use the information to put in their own bids and influence the outcome, even after paying a $13 million fine to settle SEC claims about the practices last May.
The difference now is banks have to tell investors that they use inside information with a notice like this one by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.: ''When we submit an order for our own account, we are likely to have an advantage over other bidders because we will have knowledge of some or all of the other orders placed through us.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…d=amVIyWQRrnkI&refer=news
-END-
This is exactly what MIDAS has been reporting on re Goldman Sachs for eons, especially when it comes to gold and they know what their customer the US Government is doing, or wants them to do.
A sophisticated Café member noted, "From a GATA point of view the significant thing is that having found malpractice, the SEC averted its eyes. These big Investment banks are essentially unregulated: they own the government."
TOCOM:
Ladies and Gentlemen:
During the March 15th TOCOM sessions the seven big gold shorts increased their net short position by 2,050 contracts to 113,269 contracts.
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html
In silver the same dealers increased their net short position by 303 contracts to 4,007 contracts.
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/silver/torikumi.html
Have a nice weekend,
Scott
Bill,
In the March 15 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs INCREASED their naked short position by 913 short contracts to bring their naked short position to 32,613 contracts. Since Goldman Sachs put out a bullish call on gold on March 13 they have increased their short position by a staggering 4,067 contracts. May be they take THEIR OWN analysts calls as a contrarian indicator!!! GS is clearly trying to resist a move higher. I believe they will be extraordinarily unsuccessful.
Cheers
Adrian
China to Relax Gold Shipment Rules, Central Bank Says
2007-03-16 04:16 (New York)
March 16 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's fastest growing major economy, will gradually relax restrictions on the import and export of gold as the country deregulates the precious metals market, the nation's central bank said.
The country wants to involve overseas investors, including banks, in gold trading, the People's Bank of China said in its annual report on the nation's financial market, which was posted on its Web site today. The central bank gave no timetable.
China is the world's fourth-largest gold miner. The nation raised production by 6.3 percent to 238 metric tons last year,bucking a global drop of 2.2 percent, London- based research company GFMS Ltd. said in January.
The country ``aims to create a more relaxed environment for the development of the gold market,'' the report from People's Bank of China said.
-END-
Barrick, having failed to acquire Nova Gold in order to shore up its deeply underwater hedge book, is on the prowl for unencumbered gold reserves in the ground:
NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile , Research), the world's biggest gold miner, may bid for No. 2 Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile , Research), BusinessWeek reported in its March 26 edition.
Citing "some pros," the magazine said Barrick would go after Newmont for its proven and probable reserves of about 95 million ounces of gold.
A deal would likely value Newmont in the "mid 50s," BusinessWeek said, citing pros.
-END-
Alex:
Is this not the most bullish signal for GOLD?
With their hedgebook (Barricks) and their connections to Washington , I would think they know the price is about to skyrocket.. otherwise why not buy Newmont a year from now if gold was going down?
Alex
More from Alex:
Bill
Out of my great collection of Books.. your Goldrush 21 DVD (top right) Trumps all the others.
What is going on makes all the others almost bogus. The most powerful of my Collection is GOLDRUSH21 !
That says a lot
Alex
If you are a new Cafe member and wish to know more about Gold Rush 21, go to:
http://www.goldrush21.com
GATA get-togethers growing:
Hi Bill,
Picking up on the idea of the GATA gang down under getting together for lunch, I would like to try to organize same here in Houston. Any ideas on how I might be able to identify/contact GATA members in the Houston area?
Thanks!
Spence
The new resistance point for the HUI is around 334, where it was thrown back again today. It closed up only .93 to 327.01, 7 off its highs. The XAU gained .75 to 133.29.
The way it is (This followed two irate phone calls from fellow Cafe members):
Hi Bill,
I realize that you can't always view my one minute chart attachments, but today's share action is so egregious, that I am sending a chart of AEM as a representative of so many others, and hope you can see the graphic story that it tells (MIDAS: could not view). This trashing of a major producer on a day with strong bullion performance is inexplicable, unless of course you realize that there is a cartel of bullion banks manipulating the gold market.
Today, the cartel was unable to negatively impact the bullion price, so they unmercifully concentrated their efforts on the shares, starting at about 10:50 e.s.t. Each time the shares attempted a recovery, they were sold off again. Clearly, the cartel of bullion banks, who were already majority share holders, have now increased their holdings through leasing, and can pummel the shares into a correction at will. All of these funds which leased their precious metals shares should be sued for their conflict of interest and failure to represent their shareholders interests.
What other explanation is there for today's disastrous share performance while bullion remained strong? Once again significant gains were stolen by a criminal escapade that operates with impunity and the blessing of the U.S. Treasury.
Rich C.
For more on "short selling" and WHO DONE IT:
YouTube - Naked Short Stock Sales - Part 1
.. Teil 2 folgt
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