[quote]Original von Goldesel
Sie werden allerdings nichts Physisches mehr bekommen. Deshalb glaube ich, daß dann auf Aktien und Aktienfonds ausgewichen wird. HURRA.
[quote]Original von Goldesel
Auch das "Ausweichen" in die Aktien wird wohl in Wellen verlaufen. Vorsicht ist geboten bei Deposits, deren Erschliessungkosten aufgrund fehlender Infrastruktur und überbordender Energiekosten aus dem Ruder laufen werden. Diese Überlegungen haben in den vergangenen Jahren bei den Juniors eine noch kleinere Rolle gespielt. Nicht wenige Kleinanleger werden sich dann Moosteppiche in der Tundra andrehen lasen:
"The number of junior mining companies that have good deposits and a reasonable number of shares are shrinking, so this will be the initial driver in the coming wave III of the HUI.
As many of the small junior companies are bought out, the public will start to jump on board and then the speculation begins. Most of the above information will only be realized when the public has been fleeced, so many will be lured into buying sections of moose pasture. Once the speculative phase begins, there will be a lot of money moving into emerging producers to try and bring things online to meet demand, but the present environment has yet another twist.
Skyrocketing costs are going to be prohibitive for projects that are in remote areas and have little to no infrastructure.
Areas with little to no infrastructure would be locations such as Noront's discovery and NovaGold's Galore Creek. Failure for the Galore Creek to be developed automatically resulted in termination of a transmission line that could have boosted power to many other companies looking to set up shop. There is a feed back loop that often goes deeper than is initially perceived.
The next 5 years will see bull markets in energy (oil sand stocks and Uranium stocks) even though most in these two areas have been absolutely hammered.
Wave V speculation should start at some point in mid to late 2010 and it simply will not matter what someone owns... as long as it has the word "gold" in it.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/petch/petch020608.html
grüsse
goldcore