X, rede in st petersburg von STANISLAV KRAPIVNIK. Militär geopolitischer Analyst
The war will last for a couple of decades. We need to learn to live with it.”
A powerful speech by the legendary intelligence officer and professional analyst Andrey Bezrukov at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. It resonates with what I usually say in response to the question: "When will all this end?" I reply: "Accept that war is our new normal."
Key theses - in quotes.
🔻 New type of war
"We are in a new war. Since it's pointless to seize territory anymore... this is a war of attrition and subversion." "Leaders, military, civilians, scientists" and "critical infrastructure on which the country depends" are being targeted. "This is the war we need to prepare for. It's happening, and it will continue."
🔻 West's strategy of 'boiling the frog'
"The West's strategy is very simple: to avoid a nuclear clash with us, from which they would emerge as losers. And so they need to 'boil the frog slowly' - gradually escalate tensions." "We're seeing this today. And they won't stop, because they have nowhere to retreat to. We're an existential threat to them."
🔻 First 'hill' of world war
"We're currently on the first hill of world war. There will be two hills, as in the First and Second World Wars... The rules of the game will be born after the next clash. It's likely to happen in Asia." What happened in Iran, he says, "proves that the hegemon is no longer the hegemon."
🔻 Strike on nuclear forces
The enemy's main task is to "avoid the nuclear threshold... and neutralize our nuclear forces": either by building a system in space to "prevent anything from taking off", or "like in Operation 'Spider Web', planting it here through their agents and striking our nuclear forces at a certain moment."
🔻 Destabilization and strike on infrastructure
"The plan is to overwhelm our decision-making system with complex attacks from all directions - ideological, physical, military." Already today, "a drone can fly into any region via Starlink and land in a precise location... Unfortunately, we weren't ready for it."
🔻 Threat of biowar
"All those labs around us... were making weapons of the future." Technology allows "an individual on individual equipment to create viruses that... could wipe us all out."
🔻 What to do
"We must admit that for the next... couple of decades we will be at war... We will have two generations that can practically be considered at war." The economy needs to be built in such a way that it "not only fulfills the task of development, but also the task of defense": deepen and protect critical infrastructure, create a "headquarters" for management, invest in protection against bioterrorism, and merge the army and society.
🔻 'Stop being good'
"We need to stop being good. We're too good for our enemies... They don't fear us because many red lines remain on paper." At the same time, Western Europe is dependent on imported gas, and "exploding a gas tanker is equivalent to a small nuclear explosion." The expert's conclusion: the country needs an "image of the future."
