Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

The John Brimelow Report

India still buying; more curious Eichel remarks

Monday, December 27, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.73, PM $7.87, with world gold at $443 and $442.50. Ample for legal imports. On Friday the ex-duty premiums were: AM $7.92, PM $8.38, with world gold at $442.05 and $441.90. Also ample for legal imports.

The Bombay Stock Exchange closed at a record high today, as it did on Friday. Of course, there has been discussion of the possible effects on gold of the Indian Ocean earthquake wave disaster, with some in Japan envisaging some safe-haven buying as seems to happen there after natural disasters. In my view it is unlikely to have a distinct influence.

TOCOM traded the equivalent of 13, 137 Comex lots today, down 33% from Friday’s 19,370, which in turn was up from 9,807 Comex equivalent on Thursday. The active contract closed up 3 yen today; it was down 10 yen on Friday. This is mainly the consequence of FX rate fluctuations. World gold went out this morning at $442.75, $1 above Friday’s close and $2.25 Thursday’s last NY price. Open interest is static (up 302 Comex lots today, down 499 on Friday). NY on Thursday traded only an estimated 19,000 lots.

After a morning session tomorrow TOCOM is closed until Tuesday January 4th.

With the more civilized parts of the English-speaking world closed until Wednesday in continued observance of Christmas, the only significant news item seems to be the reiteration, by the German Finance in a radio interview, of his assertion that all other central banks bound by the second Washington Accord actually intend to sell:

Berlin, Dec 25 (Reuters) -

"German Finance Minister Hans Eichel…said the Bundesbank would have to explain why it is the only one of 15 central banks in the gold agreement that is not exercising its sale option. Eichel is quoted wondering why the Bundesbank is not planning to sell its full quota of 120 tonnes…Eichel told the radio network that in his view it is currently a favourable time to sell gold reserves because the market price is currently high and no one knows what will happen with those prices in the future."

The gold market has long since factored in full utilization of the WA2 sales quotas. One wonders what purpose is served by a purported aspiring beneficiary of higher gold prices repeatedly highlighting the only piece of news, short of an abandonment of the quotas, which could be seen a negative.

JB

For example, the most well known gold antagonist wasted no time:

Hi Bill,
I awakened in my hotel room this beautiful Christmas Eve morning, in the French Alps. Poured a cup of coffee, flipped on the TV on my way out on to the balcony to get some fresh alpine air and enjoy the view. In the background was an interview being given on CNBC's European franchise. A female announcer was interviewing a fellow with an annoyingly grating voice. She asked him about gold and he immediately downplayed it. This caught my attention and I walked back into the room to see a frizzy headed pencil necked geek doing everything in his power to talk about the glorious future for platinum and palladium, "metals that actually have a use," and switch the subject from gold.

The announcer kept at him on the gold issue, much to his angst. This interviewer was very aware that something big was happening in gold. He would not give an inch. Unabashed Cartel cheerleading.

The bottom line of the interview was; he stated that there was only another 5% left to the upside of gold, followed quickly by a 20% downside, with gold settling in the $350 range. The interviewee, whom I had never seen before, turned out to be Andy Smith.

The blatant propaganda function of this interview bothered me all the way home today. Has GATA got a spare stretcher for this fool?
Don Duca
Moissac, France

We will save one for Andy, Don.

Clearly, The Gold Cartel will press its case anytime the dollar strengthens. We know their game plan is to cap, cap, cap, then POUND gold on dollar strength. Soon this aspect of their price manipulation scheme will fall apart as investors take to gold for MANY other reasons than a falling dollar. When this happens, the cabal is kaput.

Gold is rallying towards the top of its uptrend channel:

February gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/25

The euro is soaring:

March euro
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/35

The gold open interest rose 74 contracts to 319,537. What hits me over the head is, despite the relatively weak gold action vis-à-vis the dollar, there is potential here for gold to explode in the weeks to come, which is JUST what ought to happen. The gold open interest is some 56,000 contracts off its high, while gold is less than $10 off its high.

The specs were brutalized by GLD-induced massive $20 raid. Many have been loath to re-enter, especially at year-end. However, with the dollar falling apart and Iraq an unmitigated fiasco, the ramifications of which will not be able to be denied in the near future, the hedge funds are likely to pour into gold after the first of the year.

Silver acted well right off the bat and the fell apart near the close, as so often happens in the precious metals. The silver open interest rose a whopping 6 contracts to 98,024. Percentage wise it is further off its highs than gold is. It was 33% higher when silver rose to $8 a few weeks ago.

Perhaps of some interest this week will be the various economic and market predictions for 2005. As far as Wall Street is concerned, certainly most of the predictions for our stock market will be bullish and the price predictions for gold will be muted – or slightly bullish, to neutral, to bearish. Even more banal will be the Wall Street/bullion bank commentary that any gold rally will be completely linked to further falls in the dollar.

This has been a repetitive theme of late, but warrants mention once again:

*The significance of the manipulation of the price of gold could not be more apparent as gold goes into a mini-bear market in foreign currencies. These crooks and heinous cabal folks are desperate to continue their scheme in order to keep the dollar from collapsing. Thus, they will go to any lengths to further corrupt the system, as they are running out of simplistic/politically viable, economic, quick fix options; save dumping cheap Western gold – gold which the East is scooping up with glee.

*The dubiousness of GLD becomes more apparent by the week. Thus far we have seen it precipitate a $20 move DOWN in the price of gold for one. Two, its $100 million of supposed new demand for gold has proved to be a complete non-issue compared to the virulent selling by the cabal. Since GLD introduction to Wall Street, gold has lost ground in dollar terms and significantly so in foreign currency terms.

The World Gold Council should be disbanded, as it is the most useless and counterproductive industry organization in history.

Thus, a day like this one is encouraging in many regards, yet just as infuriating because of the capping of the gold price by The Gold Cartel in order to dampen gold fever in other markets. Yes, the dollar has fallen sharply of late, however, with gold going into a mini-bear market in foreign currencies, gold share prices have been comatose as a result. This is no accident. It is by CABAL design.

December 27 – Gold $445 up $3.50 – Silver $6.95 up 8 cents

Our Planet To Win Coming War Of The Worlds

There are two mistakes one can make along the road to truth -- not going all the way, and not starting...Buddha

GO GATA!!!

London and Canada were closed for Boxing Day. They have the day off tomorrow also.

The big economic news of this Monday was the continued mauling of the dollar and a corresponding modest reaction by the US bond and stock markets. About time. Thus far the US stock market and bond market have paid little attention to the disappearing greenback. Did the Wake Up Call finally START to register in the investment world as to what is going on here?

By the close today:

*The dollar fell .53 to 80.78.
*The euro took off to 136.28, up 1.34.
*The yen rose all the way up to 103.08.
*The pound gained 1.36 to 192.41.
*The 30-year March T bond lost 29/32 to 111 12/32, although way off its early 1 ½ point loss.
*The DOW fell 51, mostly late in the trading session, to 10,776, with the DOG dropping a meager 6 to 2154.

Gold which gained 70 cents on Friday, tagged along today too, putting on another $2.80. Still, the more the dollar falls, the further gold falls in terms of foreign currencies. The yoke of The Gold Cartel becomes more burdensome by the day/weeks in many regards. Our gold colleagues who correlate gold only to the action of the dollar are a bit off kilter here. While the euro has made new highs by a substantial margin, the euro gold price has fallen from its high of 344 to 326.43, a NEW LOW CLOSE for the move DOWN.

Hallo e,oba, Hallo mvd,

herzlichen dank für Eure netten aufmunternden Worte ... Ich wünsche Euch im voraus alles Gute für 2005 !

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Thursday December 23, 05:01 AM

U.S. faces worsening Iraq attacks

By Carol Giacomo, Diplomatic Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is facing increasingly deadly attacks in Iraq because, as in the Vietnam war, it failed to honestly assess facts on the ground, according to a new think tank report.

The report, prepared by Anthony Cordesman, senior fellow of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said administration spokesmen had appeared to live "in a fantasyland" when giving accounts of events in Iraq.

Cordesman, a former Pentagon official who has made several trips to Iraq, said Iraqi spies were a serious threat to U.S. operations and that there was no evidence insurgent numbers were declining despite vigorous U.S. and Iraqi counterattacks.

The report was updated after Tuesday's attack on a U.S. base in Mosul which killed 22 people. Defence officials said the explosion was apparently caused by a suicide bomber, underscoring the problem of infiltrators in U.S. operations.

After the 2003 invasion to oust Saddam Hussein, the United States "assumed that it was dealing with a limited number of insurgents that coalition forces would defeat well before the election" of a new Iraqi government, Cordesman asserted.

"It did not see the threat level that would emerge if it did not provide jobs or pensions for Iraqi career officers or co-opt them into the nation-building effort. ... It acted as if it had years to rebuild Iraq using its own plans, rather than months to shape the climate in which Iraqis could do it," he said.

Cordesman said in the first year of the U.S. occupation, Washington "failed to come to grips with the Iraqi insurgency ... in virtually every important dimension."

NO HONEST ASSESSMENT

Under the heading "Denial as a method of counter-insurgency warfare," the report accused the United States of minimizing the insurgent and criminal threat in Iraq and of exaggerating popular support for U.S. and coalition efforts.

Washington "in short ... failed to honestly assess the facts on the ground in a manner reminiscent of Vietnam," Cordesman wrote.

He said that as late as July 2004, administration spokesmen still lived "in a fantasyland in terms of their public announcements," including putting the core insurgent force at 5,000 individuals when experts in Iraq knew the correct number to be 12,000 to 16,000.

As in most insurgencies, including Vietnam, sympathizers within the Iraqi government and Iraqi forces, as well as Iraqis working for the coalition, media and non-governmental organizations, "often provided excellent human intelligence (about U.S. and coalition operations) without violently taking part in the insurgency," the report said.

Cordesman said U.S. attempts to vet these Iraqis cannot solve the problem because "it seems likely that family, clan and ethnic loyalties have made many supposedly loyal Iraqis become at least part-time sources."

Since early 2004, insurgents have suffered tactical defeats in Baghdad, Falluja and elsewhere. Still, "there is no evidence that the number of insurgents is declining as a result of coalition and Iraqi attacks to date," Cordesman said.

U.S. troops left Vietnam in 1973 after the war lost support at home. Many Americans became disenchanted with their government's failure to tell the truth about U.S. operations in Vietnam and about casualty levels.

Bill
This report below backs up your comments today on the very sad situation in Iraq, and comes from an authoritative US source.

But first it is interesting to try and analyse what effect the Iraq options still open to the US may have on the PM markets.

1) A pull out of Iraq on domestic public opinion pressure (as happened in Vietnam) would leave 3 or more competing fractions in Iraq in a power vaccuum. The resulting uncertainty and security problems in Iraq would probably lead to higher oil prices. The question mark as to the viability of the USA's role in the rest of the world, and the uncertain aftermath if they decided to pull out of other bases would put pressure on the $. Security of oil supply doubts would raise the oil price. All these factors would lead to rising gold prices.

2) If the USA decides to stay in Iraq the escalating costs will increase the deficits putting pressure on the $ and cause a rising gold price.

Conclusion : There is no Iraq scenario visible at the moment which can save the $ and hence it is a win win situation for Gold.
Very tragically it seems that it is much easier to go to war than to end the war with a just and peaceful conclusion and recreate geopolitical stability in the world.
It was easier to open Pandora's box than it is to close it.

All JMHO
Best
Alan

Just as the US stock market seems to go up every day, the gold shares sell off late. Today was no exception. With the euro screaming, the XAU could only tack on a pitiful .18 to 99.30. The HUI managed to rise early to 217.90, then fell off going into the close to 216.09, up 1.45. The HUI must take out 220 convingingly to come back to life.

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

The recent gold price action is beyond frustrating. However, the good news is The Gold Cartel has a ticking time bomb on their hands. They just don’t have enough available physical gold to keep the price from exploding next year.
What seems somewhat extraordinary to me is gold continues to go up year after year, yet so few people among the investing public are willing to do their homework to both understand and appreciate what is going on here….what the upside is and why. Participating in big moves such as these are rarely simplistic, which is the reason so few ever make the big money in them. The old adage that the biggest bulls (markets) shake off the most riders is so apropos. Take the gold shares for example. Last year was fabulous; this year was stinko with a few exceptions. As a result, many investors have lost focus and dropped by the wayside. Those who stay with the program will make fortunes.

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA stretcher-bearers please stand by; be prepared to go into action in 2005:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/morganstretcher.jpg]

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS

select:
Wednesday, December 22, 2004

12:30 PM ET
Market Call with Jim O'Connell
Canadian and U.S. Mining companies and precious metals
John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist, Sprott Asset Management

1:25 PM ET
Market Call with Jim O'Connell
John Embry's top picks
John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist, Sprott Asset Management

Best wishes for a very Merry Christmas and Golden New Year,
Preston

This email from a savvy European money manager expressed the mood and sentiments for many of us today:

Dear Bill,
Day after day I am reading your Midas comment with great interest. I have accommodated to the daily market rigging by the cartel pretty well. However, what is happening in the silver market over the last couple of days is absolutely sickening. Just look at the Euro today – again new highs – yet silver is capped, capped and capped at the 696 level in the March contract. Silver actually just lost 6 cps from its resistance high in a matter of seconds…..what a joke! I do hope that on the last trading day of December someone is asking for physical….and sends the silver price up through the roof during the first couple of trading days in 2005. I have been in business now for over 20 years and I haven’t witnessed anything like that so far. You need balls like an elephant! For sure, the inevitable is coming, but thinking about the close on dec. 31st…….if you were chairman of abx or any other cartel member and had the choice for $ 450 gold or $ 400….silver $ 10 or $6….which price would you like to have in your balance sheet based upon?.....i am long up to my eyeballs and continue to pull the position through over year-end….no matter what happens…..

Bill I wish you and all other readers a merry Christmas and a peaceful New Year. The battle hasn’t begun in earnest yet….

***

My friend up north can’t be a happy camper today either. John Embry’s handle on the gold market is second to none in the world. This email from a fellow Café member last night:

Hi Bill,
If you missed this, sorry I didn't send this sooner. The "grapefruit' comment is classic.

John Embry had a one hour interview on the Market Call segment with Jim O'Connell on ROB TV during lunch today. It was a dandy, talked about mining and precious metals companies in the U.S. and Canada. But the opening was the stunner, here is the opening question to the interview and a portion of John's reply.

*****************
Jim O'Connell: You thought gold would be $500.

John Embry: Yep

Jim: By the end of the year, it's not, what happen?

John: Well, I think the fundamentals probably would justify at least $500. But The guys on the other side are pretty effective and anybody that doesn't think there is manipulation in the gold price, probably hasn't got an IQ higher than a grapefruit, in my opinion. I mean, it is so blatant now. That it's..., it's laughable.

*******************

John Embyr interviews at ROB Tv on Market Call, in two segments at this archive.

http://www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv

Then there are the clueless and corrupt. As mentioned often, the bullion dealers in New York and around the world have been neutral to bearish all the way up and have completely ignored the true fundamentals of the market. Their clients have been shortchanged to a stunning extent. We will begin to see various 2005 price predictions for gold and silver from the establishment in the days ahead. Here is one of them:

INDUSTRY: CIBC Ups '04 & '05 Gold and Silver Price Estimates.. 2004/12/22 09:03:58

Ridgeland, MS, DEC 22, 2004 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- CIBC noted that spot gold recently set a new 16-year high with its move above $450 per ounce. Firm expects continued strength looking out to 2005 as fundamentals remain positive, although currency-driven. The firm upped their 2004 and 2005 per ounce ests to $410 and $475 from $400 and $425, respectively. They also maintained their outlook for continued strength in silver and raised their 2004 and 2005 per ounce ests to $6.65 and $7.00 from $6.50 and $6.50, respectively…

-END-

It’s hard to know from this report whether CIBC is talking about high prices, or an average price. However, you get the drift. Very uninspiring, as always, with calls for a modest rise in the price of gold and for silver to remain flat and modestly retreat. My guess is if we went back over the last four years of CIBC yearly price predictions, they would average neutral to bearish over the entire bull move so far.

There are those who know the gold market and those who are clueless. John Ing, who attended the GATA reception in Toronto this past spring, is one who gets it:

Bullish Ing Calls $700/oz Gold for Late 2005

By Tim Wood
22 Dec 2004 at 01:18 PM EST

NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) -- John Ing, president and chief executive officer of Maison Placements Canada, has never been a shy gold bull, and confirmed his reputation with his latest call for the metal to strike $700 per ounce late next year.

Before that, Ing is eyeing $510/oz as the next important step. He made the price calls in a note circulated to clients….

-END-

This continuing Russian development is rather staggering and could have major implications for the world geopolitical scene in the years to come:

RUSSIA TURNS INTO NET CREDITOR

MOSCOW, December 23 (RIA Novosti) - President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference at the Kremlin that Russia's gold and currency reserves had reached the record figure of $120 billion.

"The gold and foreign currency reserves have grown nearly 70% and are approaching the figure of $120 billion," said Mr. Putin.

This is a record high figure in the history of the Russian Federation, as well as of the former Soviet Union.

"This means Russia has become a net creditor nation," said the president.

"GDP is expected to grow about 6.8%. This approximately corresponds to the average economic growth rate over the past five years," said the president.

Per capita GDP rate is about $4,000, which is twice as much than in 2000 and nearly threefold more than in 1999, according to the president.

Mr. Putin noted the country's record trade surplus in 2004, which reached almost $80 billion.

"Russia's trade surplus has reached nearly $80 billion that is a record high indicator over the past few years, which is the result of exports exceeding imports almost two-fold," said the president.

Mr. Putin said the cost, as well as the amount of exports, had increased.

President Putin cited some other figures, among them investment in fixed capital, which had risen by 10% this years, while imports had risen by around 25%. Mr. Putin confirmed that the minimum pay would increase to 1,100 roubles by May 2006.

"Thus, this sphere will grow by some 83% in the next 18 months," said the president.

Beginning from January 1, 2005, the minimum pay will go up 20%, i.e. from 600 to 720 roubles, while beginning from October 1, 2005 - by another 11% (to 800 roubles).

Thus, in nominal terms, public sector employee's pays will rise by one third within 2005, while inflation will be 8.5% and in real terms - by 22.9%.

-END-

So, while the US goes deeper and deeper into debt, Russia strengthens its financial situation on a monthly basis. Watch out after the US financial markets are battered in the months and years ahead. Russia might flex its muscles and we won’t be able to do much about it, already stretched too thin militarily because of Iraq and greatly weakened as a nation because of US Government fiscal irresponsibility.

Here is what is going on behind the scenes:

What Paul Volker had to say regarding the rise in the gold price in 1980:

"…..Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

"Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar."

***

Here is what is presented for public consumption:

Emily Church, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:42 AM ET Dec. 23, 2004

..The dollar, however, was seeing gains from Wednesday erode. Cautionary comments from European political figures on damage done by the dollar's recent declines continued to focus markets on the European predicament.

French Finance Minister Herve Gaymard told reporters that the U.S. "absolutely" had to understand at a G-7 meeting of finance ministers in February that "coordinated" international management was needed, AFX News reported.

"If we stay in the current situation, it's possible to imagine a catastrophic situation at world level, for the Europeans who have an over-valued currency, for the Asians who hold assets in dollars and for the Americans because long-term interest rates will rise," he said.

-END-

Some things never change, even when we think they are:

"Remember all that outrage at Enron and other corporate executives suspected of fraudulent accounting? FNM’s board fired CEO Howell Raines, who made $20m last year in total compensation and was granted a guaranteed pension of $1m/year for life. And this is against the backdrop of an investigation into FNM’s accounting practices over the past few years. Where’s the outrage now?" King Report

Goodies from Jesse:

It is hard not to conclude that the current SP 500 rally is fueled by a reflationay effort from the Federal Reserve with sustained injections of repo 'hot money.' How long can they keep it up, and will the market revert to some 'mean' of value when they stop?

This sort of monetary tinkering does not produce anything useful, but does serve to placate the public with panem et circenses, bread and circuses, the tool generally used by empires when they wish to distract the mob from something they do not wish it to observe too closely. Iraq? Fannie Mae? Iran? Housing bubble? Unemployment?

So many disasters in the making, so many parties to attend.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/RepoSP500.gif

-END-

Durable Goods Orders Up Strongly

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S.-made goods rose a sharper-than-expected 1.6 percent in November, pointing to a healthy pace of activity in the nation's factory sector as the year headed to a close, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.

Last month's orders increase was a bounce back from a revised 0.9 percent decline in October that was originally reported as a larger 1.1 percent drop. The November orders pickup was the strongest in four months, since a 1.9 percent increase in July and handily outstripped Wall Street economists' forecasts for a 0.6 percent gain.

The biggest gain in November orders was for transportation goods, up 8.2 percent following a slim 0.3 percent rise a month earlier. It was the strongest rise in transportation orders since an 11 percent surge last February.

Transportation accounts for more than a quarter of overall durable goods, so any pickup in these orders has a significant impact on the overall total.

Excluding transportation, durables orders in November were down 0.8 percent after a 1.3 percent October decrease.

-END-

09:47 Dec. Final Univ. of Michigan Sentiment reported 97.1 vs. consensus 95.7
* * * * *

10:00 Nov. New Home Sales reported 1.125M vs. consensus 1.2M
Prior revised to 1.278M from 1.226M
* * * * *

10:30 EIA reports natural gas inventories (123)bcf vs. consensus (113)bcf
For reference, year-ago data was (151)bcf. Prior week's data was (61)bcf. Jan. nat'l gas futures move higher in initial reaction.
* * * * *

10:28 Dollar/euro weakens to $1.35 for first time
Trades up to the $1.3505 level before retreating back to current quote of $1.3495.
* * * * *

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Like it does almost every day, the US stock market went higher. The DOW gained 11 to 10,827, while the DOG rose another 4 to 2160.

US Economic news:

08:30 November durable goods orders +1.6% vs consensus +0.6%
Ex-transportation orders (0.8%) vs consensus +0.8%. October orders revised to (0.9%) from (1.1%).
* * * * *

08:30 Nov. Personal Income reported 0.3% vs. consensus +0.2%; Spending 0.2% vs. consensus 0.3%
Prior Income unrevised at 0.6%; prior Spending revised to 0.8% from 0.7%.
* * * * *

08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 12/18 reported 333K vs. consensus 335K
Prior week revised to 316K from 317K.
* * * * *

MIDAS note:

How interesting. The Mitsui technical analyst sees huge potential on the upside, while the noted bullion dealer bear sees dramatic downside potential. This noted bear is typical of the bullion dealer crowd. Their fundamental analysis as a group has been neutral to bearish all the way up the past few years. AND WRONG! That’s because it is based on obnoxious lies and disinformation. It is also based on their short side bullion books, as well as to placate the more significant departments (in terms of revenue) of these banking/investment firms, who abhor a rising price of gold.