Beiträge von Eldorado

Dau, ich habe mein eigenes Chartprogramm, ich gab dir mal ein paar links wo du nachschauen kannst.
Die Rally von der du redest kommt auch in 2007, warte mal ab was im Juli/ August passiert

Oil/Gold Ratio :

Historisch gesehen ist der Ratio bei 21.
Es war mal in Dezember 1998 sogar bei 30.
Der niedrigste war 6.5 Barrel pro Unze Gold in August 2005.
Zur Zeit steht er bei 9.3 und sieht aus als wollte der ansteigen.

HUI/OIL

August 2005 war der Ratio bei 3 der HUI unten im Keller.
Dezember 2003 war er bei 9.
Nun steht der bei 4.8 und nach Anstieg aus, IMO bald Luft bis 6.
Entweder faellt Oil um 15% oder Gold steigt um 15%.
Gold gehoert auf 730 USD, alles darunter ist Betrug und Manipulation von dem ich mich nicht beeindrucken lasse.

Ich kaufte PM Aktien und physisch, dieses Angebot schlage ich nicht aus.

Gruss

Eldo

Ich habe mir mal einige Daten ansgeschaut, ihr koennt nun selber mal ausrechnen wie es nun ausschaut.
So grob gerechnet mit den Bedarf der da ist sind noch fuer 45 Jahre Gold auf der Welt ohne neue Produktion.
Wenn ich annehme das die Zentralbanken nur mehr 20% physisch uebrig haben was sie sagen sind bereits 80% verkauft/verliehen worden an das Goldcartel.
Ein hoeherer Bedarf von 10% weltweit wird die 500t die sie im Jahr verkaufen wieder schlucken und die balance von 500 tonnen mehr Bedarf als Angebot ist dann nicht mehr von den ZB's gedeckt.
Das meiste Gold ist nun in privater Hand das weiter still und heimlich kauft.
Die Asiatischen Zentralbanken haben noch einiges zum kaufen um auf die allgemeine Deckung von 15% der gesamten Reserven zu kommen die anscheinend nun der Schnitt bei den Zentralbanken geworden ist.
Ich schaetze das ganze Fiatgeld ist nur mehr mit ca. 15% Gold gedeckt, die anderen 85% sind ein grosser Luftballon.
IMO haben die EZB nur mehr 20% Munition uebrig und 80% sind schon verschossen worden um den POG zu druecken.
In wenigen Jahren sind die fast ausverkauft bei dem Tempo, dann wird das Verhaeltnis Bedarf und Angebot noch groesser und der Preis steigt an.
Interessant ist z.Zt. die Chart Gold/Silber/HUI im Vergleich mit DJ und dem Oilpreis. IMO es sieht nach einem Anstieg nach oben aus.
Mohamed sagt kauft Gold und gib Oil. ..der Ratio sollte wieder auf die 15 gehen bis 2010.
Die Rechnung von Peter George stimmt dann bei 200 USD Oilpreis in einigen Jahren ist der POG dann min. bei 3000 USD innerhalb von 7 Jahren.
Ein Peak bis 100 USD bei Oil sollte in 2007/2008 kein Problem sein.

Gruss

XEX

Schablonski

Mit den 40% Gewinn von den Verkauf der Elefanten wie Rio Tinto komme ich auf ""theoretisch"" dann auf 392 USD beim letzten Kauf.
654-40% ist 392 USD...das meine ich damit.
Mein Durchschnitt pro Unze ist aber 520 USD was ich im Endeffekt bezahlt habe.
Ich schliesse nun den Tresor, ich bin fertig mit dem Einkauf von physischen Gold.
Ich schau jetzt mehr auf die PM Aktien, mehr physisches Gold brauche ich nicht mehr.
Ein drittel in physisch Gold sollte nun ausreichen, das wird vererbt und wird nur im Notfall verkauft, die Rente ist jedenfalls gesichert.
Ich schlafe jetzt auch besser...

Gruss

Eldo

@Edel

Mein Bauchgefuehl sagt das der HUI und POG sowie POS nicht viel abbekommt wenn der Crash beim Dow kommt, es kann sogar sein das dieser Markt gleich anspringt und bereits fuer den Crash vorbereitet bzw, korregiert wurde. Bei den Rohstoffaktien wie BHP etc. glaube ich das die mit dem Dow fallen werden.
Aber wie gesagt es ist nur eine Vermutung von mir, was wirklich passieren wird sehe ich spaeter.
Tatsache ist das Gold und Silber den Rohstoffen wie Kupfer und Zink sehr weit hinterher rennt, daher habe ich umgeschichtet.
Der Rohstoffboom geht sicherlich bis 2020 aber erstmal muessen gewisse Sachen korregiert werden, ebenso vergleichen wie weit der Bedarf im Fall einer Rezession sein wird.IMO wenn Panik und Hyper Inflation aufkommt kaufen die meisten erstmal Silber und Gold.

Ciao

XEX

Astrologe Merriman schrieb am 18.Juni:

Die rückläufige Merkurbewegung der nächsten drei Wochen könnte Trader in arge Bedrängnis bringen. Dies ist typischerweise eine Zeit von widersprüchlichen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Nachrichten. In solchen Zeiten fällt es Investoren schwer, zu bestimmen, ob sich der Markt in einer bullischen oder bearischen Phase befindet. Es ist in solchen Perioden nicht ungewöhnlich, kurze und zugleich heftige Ausschläge nach oben oder unten zu beobachten, wobei mit dem Fortschreiten der rückläufigen Merkurphase die Amplitude dieser Ausschläge zurückgeht. Dennoch nehmen Konfusion und Mangel an Klarheit damit nicht ab. Die Ausschläge gehen weiter, und die beobachtbaren Bewegungen senden vermischte Signale aus. Aus diesem Grunde eignen sich solche Zeiten für Ferien – wobei Sie auch in diesem Fall sicherstellen sollten, dass Ihre Reservationen bestätigt werden. Es ist nämlich Astrologen bekannt, dass während solchen Zeiten Missverständnisse und schlechte Kommunikation viele Probleme schaffen.

@Edel

Marc Faber, Paul van Eeden, Peter Grandich wer auch immer sagen das gewisse Rohstoffe wie Kupfer z.B. fallen koennten wenn der Dow faellt und eine Rezession beginnt. Grandich ist nicht happy mit GG die einen hohen Kupferanteil in ihrer Rechnung ""Cash Costs"" Gold mitberechnen und deshalb bei 230 USD sind. Faellt Kupfer dann steigen die Kosten wieder bei GG.

Paul van Eeden sagte man macht den Trick das man die Rohstoffe heimlich in andere unbekannte Lagerstaetten kurzfristig bringt, den Preis damit hochtreibt und spaeter zurueckholt in die offiziellen Lager die der Markt kennt und deren Inventories berechnet.
Wenn dann zu viel im Lager ist faellt der Preis wieder, so soll es angeblich ablaufen.

Ich habe deshalb vor zwei Tagen alle meine Elefanten wie RTP BHP FCX BVN TECK AAUK verkauft und in physisches Gold gesteckt sowie einige Schulden abgedeckt zur Sicherheit.
Ich denke mir wenn der Dow enorm faellt wird er diese Rohstoffaktien mitreissen. Ich hoffe ich kann sie spaeter guenstiger nachkaufen von den Gewinn spaeter bei den PM Aktien. Immerhin einen Gewinn von ca. 40% realisiert in 6 Monaten, ob der Zeitpunkt richtig war sehe ich noch.
Ich bin nun mehr als 100% in PM's und habe auch bei Oilaktien Gewinne abgezogen und in Gold und Silberaktien gesteckt die IMO preiswerter sind.

Ich bin long bei den PM sowie Uranaktien und nur mehr 6% in Oil und Gasaktien investiert, 33% in physischen Gold das obendrauf besser belehnbar ist im Fall es wird noch schlimmer als jetzt auf dem PM Markt. Sozusagen kaufte ich mit der Aktion Elefanten raus Gold bei 392 USD.
Ob es richtig war sehe ich spaeter.

Gruss

Eldo

germoney

Ich bin nur kurz da und muss nun andere Sachen erledigen.

gogh

Schoen das du dich zumindest gemeldet hast nach der Entsperrung.
Menschen machen Fehler, nobody is perfect, Emotions ain't easy.
Mache erstmal eine Pause und deine Reise so wie ich es mache in einer Woche.
Als Goldbug musst man einiges schlucken bis der Punkt kommt wo das meiste an einem abprallt und man das ganze viel lockerer sieht.
Erhole dich erstmal, zeige deine Toleranz und lasse dich wieder blicken.
Wer hier was verbockt hat weiss nun jeder,also Schwamm drueber and move on.

Kurze Frage wegen Intrepid ( IAU.TO) ...kaufen oder halten ?

Gruss

Eldo

Bezueglich Peter George:

Der Report von Peter George oben ist eine andere Moeglichkeit.
USD/Euro Range 1.26 - 1.38 bis Ende des Jahres ?
Fair value ist 1.32 sagt er, denke aber das innerhalb der naechsten drei Monate es Richtung 1.38 geht bevor man wieder aushilft wie gehabt.
Die 1.26 nur mit Frieden im nahen Osten, die Lage spitzt sich aber weiter zu also kann man die erstmal vergessen.
Bill Murphy von Gata stimmt Peter nicht zu wegen Bush und Irak/Iran.
Ob mit einem Luftangriff die Sache erledigt ist eine andere Frage.
Probleme in der Strasse von Hormuz wo 25% vom Oil weltweit durchgeht kann bei einem Angriff von den Amis den Oilpreiss auf 100 USD ansteigen lassen.
Mit einem Oilpreis von 100 USD ist der POG ca. 800 USD
IMO die 750 USD POG sollten wir bis Ende Jahr sehen sowie 17 USD POS.
In ca. zwei Wochen werden sie die Metallpreise wieder erholen,also fuellt Euch die Taschen wer es noch nicht gemacht hat.
Hier noch ein Report von Ken Gerbino der IMO wieder mal eine gute Analyse seit langen gemacht hat aber ohne einen Zeitfenster.
Ich beobachte seit Tagen zwei Goldminenaktien in Hongkong wo nun sehr hohes volumen ist die letzten Tage, viele Chinesen steigen langsam in den PM Aktienmarkt ein IMO.
Ich habe nur ein Problem, Gerbino sagt es kann bis 575 USD fallen.
Die finde ich uebertrieben und glaube 650 ist seit Tagen ein solider Boden und Silber mit 13 USD und HUI 333.
Ich habe gestern noch CEF und SLV nachgekauft, btw.

http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages…_for_6-22-2007_part_2.pdf

Here Gerbino:

... My gut feeling, after 34 years in the gold share markets, is that the vast majority of investors and institutions who believe in inflation and all those who believe in an economic and monetary collapse have already invested in gold and silver. That's it.

All the believers are already "in the pool". Until new investors show up, expect a sideways market possibly between $575 and $700 gold.

...All global markets including the metals/mining stocks are experiencing unusual volatility. This may continue for awhile longer. The mining stocks are currently oversold and undervalued versus the current price of gold and should have a strong 3rd and 4th quarter. There are just too many factors that are on the horizon for precious metals not to respond to higher levels.

The mining sector lead by the gold and silver mining companies should be the premier investment sector for the next decade.

Patient investors should be rewarded with above average returns while enjoying above average portfolio and monetary insurance as politicians globally ignore centuries old basic economic laws that clearly prove that printing money and creating high debt levels to solve short term political problems always ends up creating more economic problems.

Gold is the people's choice for safety and lasting value.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gerbino/gerbino062107.html

Have a nice weekend gold and silver surfer

PRESSURE MOUNTS ON ‘JUMPING JACK’

· Bush can win Iraq
· Dollar and Dow to strengthen
· Gold can dip to $630 – then up

Investment Indicators from Peter George
Friday, June 22, 2007

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1182527556.php

…The above long-drawn out analysis is like a game of chess that is reaching its end. Whereto for Iran? The implications for world markets are important. Most analysts have long-since written off America’s President Bush, the Dollar, a sustained recovery for the US economy, and any prospects American troops may have of bringing peace and prosperity to Iraq. This writer differs with these views across the board. In order to persuade his readers he has any prospect of being proven correct, it was necessary to be somewhat exhaustive, even long-winded. In a recent article explaining why Saudi Oil production was about to be significantly affected by rising ‘depletion levels’, the author sought to explain why his report became so lengthy:

“Given the importance of the subject, in a choice between being thorough and being brief, it seemed better to be thorough.”

The writer shares his sentiments and trusts his readers will eventually agree.

6.0 WHEN WAR SEEMS INEVITABLE…….ONLY THEN DOES PEACE BECOMES POSSIBLE

There is a well-known Latin tag which the writer quotes often. It well-encapsulates the gist of the above heading:

“PAX VOBIS PARE BELLUM”

It means: “If you want peace, prepare for war”

The past thirty odd pages of evidence and argument invite certain key conclusions to be drawn when dealing with ‘rogue states’. They spell victory when resort is had to the strategy of force or meaningful threat but continuing failure where reliance is placed on the soft options of ‘negotiation’ and ‘compromise’.

The clearest example when dealing with Iran followed President Ahmadinejad’s hot-headed act of aggression in abducting members of the British Royal Navy. The writer referred to it as:

LESSONS FROM AN IRANIAN ‘CLIMBDOWN’

Certain external interventions took place to make it possible. These were described as ‘PRESSURE JETS’ 1, 2 and 3. They were set out in detail on pages 10 to 13 above. The proof of the pudding was in the eating. Overwhelming pressure was the answer, particularly when the threat of military intervention was vividly spelt out by the Saudi King. In the case of North Korea and Iran, the strategy of holding a knife to the throats of their respective leaders must be sustained. Blair, Cheney and Bush were spot on. However long and drawn out, when dealing with rogue states, diplomacy is counter-productive. Whatever the economic costs of UN sanctions, Ahmadinejad will ride them out. High oil prices have helped him. Internal political pressure will only unseat him if the threat of military intervention becomes intense and imminent.

The threat worked with Libya. It will work with North Korea and Iran. The alternative, as Robert Joseph pointed out, is that Iran will follow in the footsteps of North Korea. She too will acquire her own nuclear arsenal and it will not take more than another few months. Time has run out.

6.1 CONCLUSION – IRAN WILL CAVE BY END 2007

After careful consideration the writer is persuaded that before the end of 2007, the Iranian crisis will pass boiling point. The US, Britain, France and Germany will likely form what the ‘Neo-Cons’ term a ‘Coalition of the willing’. Led by the US, they will convey an unmistakable message to the Iranian ‘elite’. Disband your nuclear enrichment and stop interfering in Iraq. Refusal will trigger war by way of a major strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. There will doubtless be collateral damage and insignificant US casualties but there is no alternative. Iran will finally be back in her box. President Ahmadinejad will retire into obscurity. The way will be open for a peaceful and democratic solution to the situation in Iraq. It could potentially serve as a model for the entire Middle East, defying current critics in the West and Islamic radicals in the East. America’s key western partners would then have reason to fund reconstruction of Iraq as a joint effort in coope ration.

7.0 POSTSCRIPT TO A ‘CLIMBDOWN’

If the Iran – US standoff pans out as projected, the implications for US international interests could on balance prove highly beneficial. They will separately impact the dollar, oil prices, popularity of the American President, and the strength of world markets and commodities.
· In the case of the dollar it may surprise by accentuating the strengthening trend already under way. This is explained below.
· It will similarly contribute to a reduction of tension in oil markets but way insufficient – in the opinion of the writer - to negate the growing impact of ‘Peak Oil’. Latest developments here could prove dramatic and are dealt with in the section on oil.
· Despite the political fortunes of Bush having reached a nadir, his term as President only ends in late 2009. If Iraq chaos subsides, he will confound the world of nay-sayers. Sentiment could swing in his favor. Reasons are given below.
· The next section will focus on world markets, specifically the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ. Contrary to sentiments of a year ago, the outlook here continues to improve. The first two have both made new highs, as have one or two key performers in the NASDAQ. The world’s most famous chartist has strong views concerning the way forward.
· A final section deals with commodities, with particular emphasis on the outlook for gold, at a time when the overwhelming majority of opinion is negative.

7.1 OUTLOOK FOR THE DOLLAR – 2007 TO 2008

No.77, headed: ‘Race to Win’, was published on September 21, 2006. The letter alluded to the Dollar’s ability, in the first 11 months of the preceding year, to spring surprising strength from a pit of extreme weakness. In under a year it had rallied from an all-time low of $1,36 against the EURO on December 31, 2004, to $1,16 on November 16, 2005. The slide of 2004 had been triggered by a series of disappointing economic data. From the end of 2004 onwards, thousands of speculators ‘shorted’ the dollar, expecting the slide to accelerate. Instead it swung right back round and bit them. Prominent victims were Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway - the world’s second richest man – and Bill Gross of PIMCO, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. They got whipsawed, covering in panic as the rally drew to a close. It happens in the best of circles. The Dollar recovery had been occasioned by a surprising improvement in economic data in face of rapidly rising interest rates. In vestors were attracted by US yields which made Dollar-denominated assets more profitable. The party didn’t last long.

Fifteen months later, the Dollar trend was swinging back into weakness. It propelled the EURO from $116 on November 16, 2005, to $1,31 by February 16, 2007, publication date of No.78. ‘Dollar Bears’ went into full cry. In his letter the writer inserted a six-page section on the US currency, suggesting it would most probably ‘range trade‘, between $126 and $136 and that predictions of runaway weakness were likely to prove far too pessimistic.

In the event the EURO re-tested its previous 31 December 2004 peak of $1,3642, beating it by a marginal 40 points. This occurred on 27 April 2007. Over a three-year period it had traced out a ‘DOUBLE TOP’. Once again the cause was a fear that the housing crash would trigger a widespread American recession.

Since the end of April 2007, the Dollar has begun began to show signs of wanting to rally, pulling the EURO down from $1,3682 to a recent low of $1,3380. Thomas Flury of UBS thinks this level represents strong short-term resistance and will prove a turning point. He projects a push up to $1,38 over the next three months in anticipation of two further ECB rate rises. This would bump the Bank’s discount rate from 3,75% to 4,25%. If it happens, he figures this would cause the EURO to target new highs. What can go wrong?

There are three possibilities. First, downward momentum in the EURO may yet have a way to go. Second, an implosion in the Spanish property market could spark ripple effects through Europe. This might persuade the ECB to place further rate increases on indefinite hold. Third, and most important, an Iranian ‘climb down’ could significantly boost long term prospects for both the dollar and America’s international standing. All three of the above are discussed below.

· Based on a ‘momentum tracker’ derived from an old-fashioned Indexia charting system, Dollar strength could persist for a while, dragging the rate from a current $1,3450, down to $1,3150. Potential drivers of Dollar strength are as usual indications from job figures that the US economy continues to grow faster than most have predicted. In May, 157,000 new jobs were created, higher than expected. In addition, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Michael Woolfolk at the Bank of New York conclude as follows:

“Connect the dots and we seem to be heading for a strong rebound in the manufacturing sector….We see $1,32 as FAIR VALUE against the EURO, and if these data keep surprising on the upside, this is a fait accompli.”

The housing slump has so far failed to generate the ‘knock-on’ feared by the likes of Greenspan. The need for rate cuts is therefore receding. Some suggest the compounding effect of rising oil and commodity prices in boosting costs, might even lead the Fed to consider RAISING rates. This could happen towards the end of the year or early next. The anticipation of such a possibility reflects in falling bond prices and gently rising long-term interest rates. In terms of yield attraction, Dollar debt therefore retains its edge over assets denominated in EUROs.

· What of the European economy itself? As Clinton would have said: “It’s the ‘Rain in Spain’, stupid!” Irrespective of general ECB optimism, certain members of the community face turbulent times. The US housing market fell off a cliff. A far worse fate could face property speculators in Spain. Why should this affect overall ECB interest rates? In the words of John Stepek in Moneyweek:

“Statistics on the Spanish property market make for terrifying reading. More than 800,000 homes were built last year – that’s more than Germany, France and Italy combined, leaving a glut of property hanging over the market. House prices have risen 270% in 10 years. Household debt has climbed from 75% of disposable income in 1995 to 133% now…Spain’s market is unusually vulnerable to rising interest rates and panicky speculators. In a country of 40m people, 4m foreigners own property…and a whopping 96% of mortgages are on floating rates. Since 2005 there have been seven hikes.”

Bernard Connolly of Banque AIG spoke to the London Daily Telegraph:

“Spain is going to face the direst of economic circumstances; a cycle of recession, deflation and widespread private sector default – a depression in fact. This stock market slide is not just a ‘correction’. It has a very long way to go.”

For the month of May, Euro zone retail sales fell for the first time in three months. Although Germany stands strong, the ECB may yet need to exercise caution, holding rates in check, particularly if the Spanish construction industry experiences a potential meltdown. The overall European climate is not a ‘slam dunk’ scenario for rising rates.

· A final boost to the Dollar could come from developments in the Middle East, the focus of this letter. An Iranian ‘climb down’ would overnight slash perceptions of a US trade deficit spiraling endlessly out of control, on the back of rising military outlays in Iraq. A Dollar rally would then not stop at $1,32 but could easily push back down to $1,26. Based on the Middle East scenario sketched above, the writer believes a Dollar rate of $1,26 could well be on the cards by end 2007. That would give Dollar Bears something to think about, wouldn’t it?

· As this letter was going to print the writer watched Victor Adair being interviewed. A well-known currency specialist from Man Financial, his forecast for the Dollar was a gut-wrenching $1,20. His reasons were simple. EURO rate rises are already ‘factored in’, whereas Dollar rates, US growth, and Domestic inflation, will all surprise to the upside. Seems good to the writer.

7.2 OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GASOLINE PRICES - 2007 to 2010

Two years ago the writer laid out a five-year forecast for the prices of oil and gold. Based on their respective 1980 highs of $40 a barrel for oil and $875 an ounce for gold, he projected a five-fold increase for oil to $200 a barrel by end 2010, and a mildly tamer four-fold increase in gold to $3,500. Supply problems would give oil the edge, enabling it to accelerate away from its multi-decade relationship with gold.

Having read Matt Simmons’ book, ‘Twilight in the Desert’ barely two years ago, the writer became an avid subscriber to the theory of ‘Peak Oil’. In essence it holds that easily obtainable oil resources are limited and that global production is set to decline. The theory specifically claims that Saudi Arabia’s main oil deposit, the Ghawar Field – and biggest in the world - is way past its ‘sell by’ date and set to experience a sharp fall-off in output. It suggests that for some years, Saudi production has been maintained at artificially high levels, allowing consumers to grow complacent.

Quite recently the writer’s attention was drawn to an independent source of information supporting Matt Simmons ‘Peak Oil’ theory to the tee. It was entitled ‘Depletion Levels in Ghawar’. The original article was posted on a website called ‘The Oil Drum’, on May 15th this year, by author Stuart Staniford. The report was quite technical and ran to 49 pages – effectively a ‘thesis’. Staniford then took the unusual step of inviting e-mail blogging by recognized experts. They have since contributed a further 81 pages of commentary, most of which was highly complementary.

The bottom line appears increasingly to be that Saudi production peaked at 9,5million barrels a day in 2005. It has since fallen to 9mb/d in 2006 and looks like sliding to 8mb/d for the year to December 2007. The report then infers production levels of 7.0mb/d, 6.0mb/d and 5.5mb/d for the years 2008, 2009, and 2010. One blogger made a strong case for the rate of decline accelerating down to 4mb/d before hitting a plateau!

The general consensus from both the author and his ‘bloggers’ was that oil prices would hit $100/barrel by end 2007, rising to a minimum of $200 by end 2010. Matt Simmons would probably agree with those estimates although in his book he postulated that under certain circumstances the price could appreciate substantially faster, ultimately reaching as high as $500 a barrel. All values are assumed to be in constant 2005 Dollars.

Using the conservative scenario of $100 by end 2007 underscores the attractions of most well-run energy stocks. Specific recommendations will follow in the section on stocks.

A heightened Iranian confrontation would give a short term boost to prices in the event that sunken ships were to block the Straits of Hormuz. However, if followed by a ‘climb down’ before the end of the year, the net effect on prices would ultimately be deflationary. A far greater measure of peace would return to Iraq. Production of oil could conceivably double from 2mb/d to 4m. In Iran itself, if a more moderate administration came to power, sanctions would be dropped. Over time the nation’s oil resources would once again receive proper attention by way of foreign technical expertise and fresh investment from offshore. This would make it possible for production to revive. Unfortunately none of these benefits would wholly offset the sharp fall off expected from Saudi Arabia. Nor could any increases be implemented as rapidly as the declines now predicted.

7.3 CAN BUSH BOUNCE BACK?

The political fortunes of George Bush junior long ago became the butt of jokes. His faith-based strategies gave rise to snide allegations regarding the President’s alleged lack of cranial capacity. However, before siding with mockers, one would be well-advised to take a tip from legendary stock trader Baron Rothschild.

‘The time to buy is when there’s blood in the street’.

Similar swings in and out of favour are frequently observed in the world of politics, but in the case of Bush there are other factors at work. For all his faults, the man is a ‘Committed Christian’. In deference to his stand the writer sought a scripture appropriate to his current dire circumstances but pregnant with potential for a ‘bounce-back’ based on God’s promises. These are generally attributable to any man of God who sticks ‘faithfully’ to whatever he believes God is asking him to do. He may of course have misheard, but, in Bush’s situation this is unlikely. Throughout his term he has been surrounded by ‘Godly advisors’, in particular people like Billy Graham’s son, Franklin, who prayed for him on the day of his inauguration. After September 11, Franklin Graham’s comments were bold and forthright:

“The God of Islam is not the same God of the Christian or the Judeo-Christian faith. It is a different God, and I believe a very evil and wicked religion.”

The writer’s arguments with regard to a Bush ‘bounce back’ may be presumptuous. Time will tell. The scripture chosen is found in the Old Testament Book of Lamentations, chapter 3, verse 16, 31, and 32. It fairly describes Bush’s predicament but carries promise of a change for the better:

"He has broken my teeth with gravel; he has trampled me in the dust.
I have been deprived of peace; I have forgotten what prosperity is…
but…men are not cast off from the Lord forever. Though he brings grief,
he will show compassion, so great is his unfailing love."

The Prophet Kim Clement felt the same way:

“I will not allow a Bush to be leaving the White House in shame. I will yet bring some honour to what has happened.”

Although it is fashionable to condemn the March 20, 2003 invasion of Iraq out of hand, one must still distinguish between the reasons given publicly at that time, and those which could, should and still can be given today. These arguments were fully addressed in section 3.0, entitled:

‘The Iraq War in Retrospect’

However convenient it may be to condemn the war and the reasons for launching it, dealing with the present situation is another matter entirely. It allows no scope for ‘beating around the Bush’. Everyone has to lay their strategy on the line.

.

Darf ich noch einen... :D..vielleicht hat meine email was geandert.

MAHENDRA IS BACK !

HISTORIC MOVEMENT OF NEW LOVE OR AFFAIR

With in few days or weeks GOLD AND DOLLAR will start walking on same path.

Why you are scared with US Dollar? Metal investors should also to take part in this historic walk and I am sure you will have great fun.

THIS WEEK’S PREDICTIONS FOR 18 TO 22 JUNE

GOLD

After so much struggle finally gold is entering is powerful bull Astro-cycle but same time many metal experts are skeptic at this stage for short term and medium term outlook. Metal advisors are nervous at this point because of the rising USD and the selling of gold by European banks. As predicted since the last one month, gold has been trading in uncertainty, thereby making metal traders uneasy. However, I am not nervous because the trend of gold will be a very exciting one in the coming days. At the same time, I see huge volatility on both sides.

This week I see gold prices trading positively, and they will try to walk with the US dollar, which will be a very surprising but exciting event for serious traders. A lot of metal investors are more concerned about the dollar’s rise and the current rise in the bond yield which is causing uncertainty in future interest rates, and those who are hedging gold against inflation.

Anyway, I am not giving importance to these micro-economic indicators, but I recommend that you buy gold on Monday as well as on Tuesday during any weakness you should accumulate.

This week gold will be trading positively and one should therefore buy gold during weakness. Current planetary movement shows a positive trend in gold and I am thus quite optimistic about it for the short as well as medium term. The trading range for gold will be from $648.80 to $665.80. If it breaks the upper side, then the next target will be $678.80. On the downside, I don’t see gold breaking last week lows, and this week will clearly be positive for gold. If gold remains positive this week, as a forecaster I shall be quite happy as

MY PREDICTION OF GOLD TOUCHING $800 WILL SOON BE FULFILLED.

SILVER

I see a sharp rising movement for silver during this week and I recommend partially booking a small profit on Thursday because time has come for gold and silver to hold for the medium term or till gold reaches $800 and silver $18.80.

Buy silver on Monday as well as during closing on Tuesday or during weakness on these days and expect around three percent rise in prices.

Once again, this week is very important for gold and silver and they should trade positively. I am confident that they will trade positively because I am suddenly turning positive on metals after a few months: if this period doesn’t help metals, then I don’t think that the coming period (thirty six months) will help them. Indeed, a lot of answers will unfold before Friday of this week and it will also be quite clear whether silver will move to $18 or not- and if gold will move to $800.

Nevertheless, I am very hopeful that they will soon do that, probably within four months, though there is a possibility that it could even happen next month.

STOCK MARKET

On Friday last week, some people in my health club were discussing the rise of the stock market, and they believe that the rise will be a very powerful coming time. As I listened to them, I thought about my prediction of a weak trend in the world equity market. Well, I don’t want to say that markets are being manipulated, but as an astrological analyst I clearly see a period of major volatility. A while back the market suddenly went down, but last week it abruptly went up, a sign that people want to get in when they see a buying opportunity. However, once they get stuck during the buying period, then there will be a second era of multiple downfalls like in 2000. Mars has just changed houses and if it cant inject fire to the bull market this week, then a bear market will definitely come.

This week is the most important week for the market trend because if the bull-run continues this week, then it could continue for another five weeks. If a bear trend however comes this week, then the trend will continue for six months.

The most important observation you should make during this week is about which region’s markets are going up or coming down. This should guide you quite well and should do wonders trading the market for the next six months. I believe that I have provided you with a master key because I do not want you to make decisions using my weekly trends since I have been off-track on markets. ....that's an apology !!

For instance, in the previous week I was very accurate on the market but wrong last week. I therefore want you to make the decision after watching this week’s market.

For the overall trend:

European Markets - I have been predicting a fall in European markets. I have been very confident of a 20 percent fall and though many might not believe it, I am now predicting a fall of more than 35 percent in all major European markets before the end of this year. One should therefore take a risk of just two to five percent of your portfolio to buy puts on the markets or sell the calls of December 2007 and I am sure you will reap what others have gained in orange juice.

Asian Markets – Japan and Singapore markets will remain much more positive then Australia, China, India or even Hong Kong. All other small stock markets in Asia will trade weakly, but the overall trend in the Asian markets will remain more positive than European markets.

American Market – I am very optimistic on the USA market and the trend will remain very positive overall. Once again I recommend that one hedge position by buying the USA market and selling the European market. Talk to me after three months and we’ll see where your balance sheet stands.

This week is a great opportunity to sell all the markets especially European, though they will be on a roller coaster up and down. However, remain firm and if your trading book figures show a profit, then keep selling the European market. A very strong recommendation is to buy alternative energy (long-term) stocks and metal stocks (short-term).

TREASURY BOND

This week, short-term and long-term bonds will trade sideways. Those who have sold can cover the short position, but do not buy at this stage because the weak trend is not yet over.

GRAINS

Since early this year I recommended buying grains in the month of May, but for the short-term period I don’t see a rise from here. That is why I recommended selling them on Friday. In recent days, grains have been trading very highly but the volume has been quite low. Those that have missed the opportunity to sell on Friday can take a short position on Monday because the astrological trend turned negative from Friday afternoon. If they do not trade weakly for the whole of this week, then my predictions may change because it means that Friday’s Astro negative cycle will not remain negative. I will therefore wait for this week to observe the trend in grains and I shall give my final decision. At this stage however, it looks as though grains will enter into a negative cycle especially wheat and soy oil.

OIL

Last week oil traded sideways and indeed crossed the important level of $67. If it remains above $67 on Monday, then a five percent rise cannot be ruled out as predicted last week. On Monday once you see oil holding above $67, then one can buy and sell around $69.80.

This week heating oil and RB gas may try to trade up with the trend of oil, but they may not be able to sustain the rise, and they may suddenly turn into negativity. Be careful therefore before you buy RB gas and heating oil as I don’t recommend any position in these two energy products after Wednesday. Natural gas will trade sideways.

CURRENCIES

The US Dollar has remained strong, and why not: it has all reasons to remain up since the Astro bull cycle wave has already entered in the dollar. It has been a tough period for me especially the month of March and April when I recommended buying the dollar and it failed to move up. Interestingly, this always happens with me for each commodity and market. I sometimes feel very frustrated and I get depressed since even after repeated study, the planets give me the same answer. In such cases I have no choice but to stick with my predictions.

The bull has been born and it will take the US dollar towards a high, therefore stick with your dollar and keep selling European currencies as well as commodity currencies. An interesting new diversion will take place, therefore don’t buy once you see commodities rising, thinking that commodities currencies will also rise (commodities currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars).

Last week I was very wrong on the Japanese yen as it never gained against any currency. I will therefore not write anything concerning the yen this week. However, those holding position in the Japanese yen should see better days from Wednesday this week. As for Monday and Tuesday, I am not sure what the yen will do.

This week European currencies should trade weakly especially the British Pound and the Euro which will fall around one percent.

The Australian and Canadian dollars have touched historic highs and from here they will be in a downwards trend. This may take a few days but it is certain that their downwards journey will start from here.

This week the USA dollar should touch a new high of four months and see a high of 2007 before the end of this month.

Important Note!!!

This week will be very interesting to watch the rising of gold with the dollar, and if they both shake hands, then gold will not take much time to reach $800. Indeed, I shall closely watch the situation and update you accordingly.

Trades for this week:

Ø Buy metals as soon we will see new high in gold and silver, gold is toward $800 and silver $18.80 before the end of third quarter 2007. I will announce new price target once these prices get fulfill.

Ø Buy coffee, cotton and sugar at Aldi

Ø Buy puts in European market and hedge the position by buying USA market.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra Sharma.

PS:

I think he is right with this prediction, guys.

Don't worry be happy !!!

Here what the Elliots say:

Data Updated to 15 June 2007.

The smaller a-b-c irregular correction is easily discernible. The b-wave peak at $697.4 is above the start of the a-wave at $693.7. The a-wave decline is 7.7% while the c-wave decline is 7.0% to date. These two declines are sufficiently close in magnitude to suggest that they are part of the same corrective formation, hence the smaller irregular correction analysis.

There is a possibility that the formation might turn into an irregular FLAT correction. That simply means that the c-wave may get down closer to the $639.9 low of the a-wave. In the gold PM fixings, a flat correction could result in the c-wave reaching the low point of the a-wave, which is $636.7.

If the gold price declines significantly below these low points for a flat correction, (say below $630) then we would have to consider the possibility of more serious downside corrective action.

If, however, the smaller irregular a-b-c corrective pattern is the correct analysis, then we should experience a very strong upside move, possibly a $100 upside catapult, commencing very soon.

The fact that the “fire alarm” has been ringing in the bond markets around the world suggests that the “Cash is Trash” and “Fiat currencies are headed for Oblivion” camp will prove to be correct. A new wave of “store of value” investment in gold and other tangibles should now gather momentum.

This might well be the trigger that gives rise to the sharp upward move in the precious metals that the Elliott Wave analysis suggests is imminent.

Alf Field

18 June 2007.

David, glei ruckmazamma !

verdammt eitel und inkonsequent sind wir ? ..halte dir mal einen Spiegel vor die Nase.

Cool, du warst ausser Haus, bleib weiter draussen, du brauchst einen langen Urlaub nach dem fuckup here.
Wenn du schon was verpasst hast dann haettest du den Kommentar von Gogh vergessen koennen..... Geh weida !

Zitat DMR:

""Plumpe Pauschalkritik am eigenen Umfeld ist wie ins eigene Bett nässen und abreisen, da bekommt man sogar im Hotel Hausverbot (hab ich mal von Kollegen gehört). Miesmacher dürfen ihr Glück gerne anderweitig suchen, haben wir hier nicht nötig."" ;(.....der Miesmacher bist du !!!

""Ich freue mich stets über konstruktive Einwürfe und meine auch kritikfähig zu sein. Von gogh kam es widerholt und unverändert eindimensional .. peinlich.""

Du und kritikfaehig ?..

""Ich halte dahe die Sperre für einen beiderseitig gangbaren Weg. ...... sehr diplomatisch !

Ich möchte, dass dies Forum hier ein Ort ist, wo sich die Mitglieder gern aushalten :D, wo die Anonymität nicht für beleidigungen oder Beschimpfungen sondern zum unkomplizierten und kostenneutralen Informations- und Gedankenaustausch verwendet werden kann.""" ;(... ach wie grosskotzig, da brauchst aber die richtigen Leute dazu.

Mache erstmal das was du hier schreibst, von mir aus schreibst jetzt was du willst.

Du hast Dir damit selber ins Bett gepisst.

Adios 8).... FREE GOGH !

Aber selbst wenn er frei ist denke ich mir er hat soviel Stolz das er denkt......L-M-A-A David. :D...... I don't need you in my life.

Oder hoab mi gern du Zipfel soagt ma in Bayern.

You are such a big shot ........expect the unexpected.

You are so proud and can't even say sorry guys, ...it was a mistake..

That's what's me pissing off -- Amigos.

Der Rechtsanwalt verabschieded sich nun, keep on talking.

The brain goes on holiday. :]..lets the new guys talk, it might be interesting or funny to watch those new Gold/Silber Cowboys in the Rodeo to 1000 USD,make it a round fugure.

Welcome to the ""new organized"" Goldseiten Forum.

========================================================

So habe ich dich von unserem Telefonat nicht in Erinnerung. Ich hoffe deine gerichtliche Auseinandersetzung verläuft zu deiner Zufriedenheit und wünsche dir alles Gute bei der Neuorganisation deiner Wohnsituation. Ich bemühe mich hier der möglichst guten Organisation des Forums und freue mich über alle die den Weg - auch zu besserem Ton - mittragen. MbG DMR

Lucky

Du hast in gewissen Dingen recht aber das ganze ist nun ein stand off.
Ich habe DRW schon mal angeboten einfach die unblock taste zu druecken ohne Kommentar damit er sein Gesicht nicht verliert.
Mehr Luft bekommt er nicht, ein erwachsener Mensch braucht nicht mehr als drei Naechte um einen Entschluss zu fassen, die hatte er.
Es geht hier ums Prinzip und Gerechtigkeit.
Einem Kind laesst man mehr Zeit, gebt DRW von mir aus mehr Zeit wenn ihr wollt aber seinen Dickschaedel und Sturheit wird er nicht aendern so wie ich ihn kenne. Der braucht mal eine auf den Deckel, das einzige das wirkt ist ein Rueffel von seinen Boss.
Welche Rueckendeckung er von dem bekommt in der Sache ist eine andere Frage.
Mir ist das aber nun ehrlich gesagt nun Wurst, im Gedanken bin ich schon im Urlaub. Dann werden die Gedanken geordnet und irgendwas ergibt sich schon. Sortiert mal das ganze ohne mich aus, ich habe genug gemacht in der Sache und habe Gogh meine Solidaritaet bewiesen.
Ich habe nun wichtigere Dinge zu tun als hier unter diesen Umstaenden/Stimmung im Forum weiter zu schreiben.

Vielleicht das ?

http://www.clipfish.de/player.…YwfDY5NjUwMg%3D%3D&cat=16

Herzlichen Gruss, viel Glueck sowie Gesundheit wuenscht Euch allen:

Eldo

Ps:

"Make new friends, but keep the old; those are silver, these are gold.
New-made friendships, like new wine, Age will mellow and refine.
Friendships that have stood the test-Time and change-are surely best;
Brow may wrinkle, hair grow gray; Friendship never knows decay.
For 'mid old friends, tried and true, Once more we our youth renew.
But old friends, alas! may die; New friends must their place supply.
Cherish friendship in your breast-New is good, but old is best;
Make new friends, but keep the old; Those are silver, these are gold."

Author Unknown

Ganz kurz, frueher wurden diverse postings von den Moods geloescht oder Karten wie am Fussballplatz verteilt.
Wenn es rot gab dann haben sich die Suender unter einen neuen Namen angemeldet und waren wieder im Forum bis sie wieder aufgefallen sind.
Es brachte also nichts ausser Unruhe wie jetzt bei Gogh.
Der Umstand das sich DMR nicht einmal Stellung dazu nimmt zeigt wie zensiert das Forum nun ist mit der Aktion von Mooderator DMR.
DMR zusammen mit einer Empfangsdame z.B. Uschim sollte sich eher an die Eingangstuer des Forum stellen und besser neue Mitglieder begruessen als hier Leute zu sperren die nicht verbrochen haben.

Wer nicht sieht was hier los ist den kann ich auch nicht helfen.
Unter diesen Umstaenden macht es fuer mich keinen Spass mehr.
Mal schaun wer hier wen braucht in der Zukunft, auf zu anderen Ufern wuerde ich sagen, nun ist alles klar auf der Adrea Doria.

@DMR

Da du nicht einmal Stellung hier nimmst oder versuchst Frieden zu schaffen zeigt mir welcher ""Coward"" du bist in der Angelegenheit. Wenn du lieber die letzten Mohikaner rausjagen willst anstatt die unblock taste bei Gogh zu druecken dann wundere dich nicht wenn das Forum weniger besucht wird und an Qualitaet verliert.

Dummheit und falscher Stolz sind aus einem Holz.
Shame on you, die Verantwortung was nun wird aus dem Forum traegst du alleine mit deiner Handlung und Reaktion die ich nicht verstehen kann.

Bitte stellt nun alle Fragen an DRW, sorry but I'm out of here.

Take care

XEX

@Tompel....ja es scheint bergab zu gehen. :(..Schade !

Ca. 80% der langjaehrigen Mitglieder auf der Liste unten sind ausgeschieden oder nicht mehr vertreten in diesen Forum.
Viele sind umgezogen in andere Foren oder haben keine Lust mehr jeden Rookie der hier erscheint alles wieder zu erklaeren anstatt man den erstmal lesen lasst bevor er Fragen stellt. Auch ein Grund fuer mich wenn die letzten Mohikaner hier verschwinden auszusteigen, irgendein anderer kann dann Guru ""whoever"" weiter vertreten.

Frau Guru..... von mir aus

Da waren, oder da sind noch an Mitglieder uebrig :

http://goldseitenforum.de/memberslist.php?sid=

Warum ??...... z.B. auch weil ein Moderator wie David nichts anders zu tun hat als diese Mitglieder zu sperren nach Lust und Laune und lieber bei dem Videothread seine Mega Lacher posted die nicht mal funktionieren, anstatt hier einmal Stellung zu nehmen !

So jetzt wieder auf meinen Streikposten, kauft ihm am besten eine Sony Playstation damit er sich richtig austoben kann und weiter Leute abschiessen kann die ihm persoenlich nicht gefallen wenn sie ihn kritisieren. Vielleicht laesst er uns dann in Ruhe.

Und Edelman wird von jetzt an bezahlt fuer seine Arbeit hier sonst kommt der naechste Streik.
David wird wahrscheinlich obendrauf noch bezahlt fuer das er Gogh gesperrt hat.

Das ganze war IMO ein persoenlicher Racheakt denn auf Gogh hatte er schon immer ein Auge geworfen der hier seine ehrliche Meinung sagte und keine Regel gebrochen hat.

Von mir aus sperre mich nun auch David , ich kann darueber nur lachen wie albern es ist wie du hier mit wertvollen und erwachsenen Mitglieder umgehst die sogar aelter sind als du und sich von Dir bestimmt nicht anpfurzen lassen.

You must be kidding !

Live and let live !!

MfG

XEX

Trolls und Krawalltanten sollten sich hier raushalten !!

Traurig, keinerlei Stellungsnahme bezueglich der Sperre von Gogh finde ich wieder typisch wenn man sich dazu stellen sollte.

Falls David Schaeuble II. Master of destruction unsere Beschwerde gelesen hat ist er feige in meine Augen nicht einmal dazu Stellung zu nehmen.

Er sollte dann dekradiert werden und Edelman hat das sagen wer hier von nun an gesperrt wird.

Interessant wie Davd M. Reymann hier das Forum umorganisiert.

David ist bekannt das er die falschen Mitglieder sperrt, siehe damals bei Goldy wo er sich schon einmal in die Brennessel gesetzt hat.

Soll er sich doch fuer immer verkriechen wenn er will, mir ist das recht.
Wenn David hier das letzte Gehirn aus dem Forum rausjagen will dann soll er es gleich sagen.

Am besten er tut sich mich Uschim zusammen und macht ein eigenes Forum auf wo er Bundekanzler spielen kann.

Eines ist klar ,wenn wir hier nicht solidarisch sind zerlegt man jeden einzelnen wie Gogh und macht ihn Mundtod mit einer ungerechtfertigten Sperre die enormen Schaden anrichten wird.

Ich stimme hier voll Goldmund zu und schliesse mich nun an da alle Kommentare von uns leider nichts brachten und Gogh immer noch gesperrt ist.
Einfach ignorieren, munter weiter machen und so tun als sei nichts passiert kann ich nicht.

Ich habe hier fast 10.000 postings und mir eine menge Arbeit gemacht, aber das lasse ich mir nicht gefallen von David.

One for all, all for one !

Darum:

Es wäre wirklich an der Zeit, dass sich noch mehr hier anschließen und keine Beiträge mehr schreiben , bis diese unsägliche und nicht nachvollziehbare Entscheidung der Sperre , plus einer Entschuldigung, aufgehoben wird.

FREE GOGH ! FREE POG !

Die beiden noch dann reichts fuer heute....

http://youtube.com/watch?v=KDDcuK3sM7c&watch_response

http://youtube.com/watch?v=AFEO7EPZpgE&mode=related&search=

Just ignore Condi here guys, she can do her show somewhere else.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=C0f2dHJ6A18

http://youtube.com/watch?v=lDtGioyfVlU&mode=related&search=

http://youtube.com/watch?v=U6j0iK-hOxo&mode=related&search=

http://youtube.com/watch?v=CShiqSs_8xc&mode=related&search=

http://youtube.com/watch?v=JhTFEXxqxYw&mode=related&search=

http://youtube.com/watch?v=0qbXe6pl5PI&mode=related&search=

Here is some good ones

http://politicalhumor.about.co…m/watch%3Fv%3DtTzs9G-VOZ4

http://politicalhumor.about.co…m/watch%3Fv%3DFrEdjaJt9iY

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Fws4RxWtnOg&mode=related&search=

http://youtube.com/watch?v=d_vv12NSSZ4&mode=related&search=

http://youtube.com/watch?v=pgPShicCCTA&mode=related&search=

http://youtube.com/watch?v=nupdcGwIG-g&mode=related&search=

@Mesodor

Die Aden sisters schreiben dazu:

MONEY-MONEY-MONEY...

Spending, money and inflation are the other three big factors we’ve often discussed and they are equally important. In fact, that’s really what this long-term bull market in gold is all about and it’s the essence of the perfect storm.

The U.S. is the world’s largest debtor nation. It keeps spending money in amounts so large it’s difficult to put it into perspective, but we’ll try… For example, at $5 million per day, it would take nearly 40,000 years to pay off the U.S. debt and liabilities.

The Iraq war alone is going to cost the same amount as all of the gold that’s ever been produced in the world since the time of Christ... and on and on.

It’s all truly mind boggling but it’s happening and it’s going to intensify. How do we know?

The baby boomers are approaching retirement and their numbers are huge at 26% of the total U.S. population. The bottom line is that 20,000,000 of the retiring boomers do not have enough money to retire on. They’ll have to rely on Social Security and Medicare over the next 20 to 30 years. In addition to the majority of retired Americans who already depend on Social Security, this is going to zap an already badly strained system.

Not to be gloom and doomers but these are the facts. Very simply, the boomer effect is going to exacerbate the debt problem.

@ Uschim

Guten Morgen, bist schon wieder da ?

Mein Selbstbewußtsein ist von Eurer Anerkennung völlig unabhängig.
""Die Anerkennung in Beruf und Partnerschaft ist höchst primär.""

Und die stimmt ?

By Jack Chan

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1182092520.php

Summary

Our last buy signals in the gold ETFs failed and we took a small loss on a conservative allocation. Both gold and silver have now fallen back to the 200ema support, where in the past six years, have acted as a springboard for all rallies, and three times as a launching pad for an impulsive phase to new highs. A special tutorial with a buying strategy for the gold sector in anticipation of the next impulsive phase has been posted for subscribers.