Der Rohöl Thread

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IMF to discuss world defiance of expensive oil

Paris, Sept 10: The "third oil shock", as some have dubbed the tripling of oil prices since 2002, has been remarkably well-absorbed by the world economy, analysts say.

Contrary to past experience, the sharp rise in prices has not sent the world tumbling into recession, revealing a number of key shifts in the past 40 years that explain the new-found resilience.

The subject of how growth has been sustained with the price of a barrel of oil hovering at about 70 dollars is to figure prominently at a meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Singapore on September 19-20.

With the world economy set to power into another year of high growth next year, .... a number of factors have been cited to explain its vitality. These include greater energy efficiency, lower dependency on oil as a power source.

The current round of high prices, although partly driven by supply fears linked to Iran, Iraq and Nigeria, also reflect growth in demand from China and the United States, as well as from other emerging countries such as India and Brazil.

"We are resisting basically because what is ramping up the price of oil is China -- and china is fundamentally a driver of the world economy," said an economist at French Investment Bank Credit Agricole, Jean-Paul Betbeze.

Betbeze's comments illustrate the difference between the current oil price spike, which has been driven partly by demand, and those of 1973 and 1979-80.

In 1973, the Yom Kippur war between Israel and Syria and Egypt prompted an oil embargo by oil-producing Arab nations, which sent prices spiralling. The second crisis in 1979-80 was sparked by the Iranian revolution.

Bureau Report

Jack's Oil Analyse:

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/chan/chan091106.html

Summary

When I first published the upside target of $80 on crude oil a few weeks ago, I received a few nasty emails from those who disagreed. They presented me with arguments on peak oil, the Mideast crisis, China, India, etc etc…..What these folks do not realize, or fail to accept, is the fact that the futures markets are the trading place where some of the most knowledgeable traders make their living, and many if not all of these “fundamental issues” have been taken into consideration and priced into the current markets. Price is the most effective and efficient indicator, and should not be ignored, regardless what the story of the week is.
Based on our current analysis and trading models, there are only two viable positions for traders and investors: cash or short.

09/11/2006

Jack Chan

Listen to this MP3 Download,sehr interessant !

http://usgi.audioblog.com/delu…6cb-d7fd-51dea0f8e72f.mp3

Sept. 13, 2006, 3:03PM

Oil Prices Up After Seven Days of Losses

NEW YORK — Oil prices rose Wednesday, reversing seven straight days of declines after the U.S. government reported a decrease in the nation's crude inventories.

Crude futures stayed under $64 a barrel, though, due to a large rise in heating oil inventories and the perception among traders that threats to supplies _ ranging from Atlantic hurricanes to Middle East politics _ have eased.

U.S. crude inventories fell 2.6 million barrels to 327.7 million barrels last week, according to the federal Energy Information Administration. They're still 5.6 percent above year-ago levels and above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Oil unlikely to fall below $40, IMF chief warns

By Carola Hoyos in Vienna

Published: September 13 2006 08:05 | Last updated: September 13 2006 08:05

Rodrigo Rato, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, on Tuesday warned that oil prices were unlikely to fall below $40 a barrel and that the risks of a global economic slowdown had grown in the past three months.

"I don't see a drop in oil prices"".

Oil is going to continue at high prices in comparison to the last two-three years," he said, meaning that prices would not drop below the $30-$40 a barrel average of 2003-04.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/368d44…da-ba9f-00000e2511c8.html

Oil Shortages?

It’s Happened Before. And It Will Happen Again.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/cooke/cooke091506.html

Conclusion :

There are four concepts that thread their way through all five of these oil shortages.

There was plenty of oil in the ground. These oil shortages had nothing to do with world oil reserves or potential production. They happened anyway.
All five oil shortages were related, or directly caused, by cultural conflict. A world war. Two regional wars. Cold war isolation. Internal political and labor strife. Above ground factors caused a decline in oil production.
All five oil shortages had a chaotic impact on the affected national economies. All had higher rates of inflation. With the exception of WW2, all produced higher rates of unemployment. Real GDP growth was erratic.
Government could not avert the economic or cultural impact of an oil shortage. People had to fend for themselves. Solve their own problems. Adjust their own lifestyles. We had to solve our personal transportation problems, find new jobs, scramble for food resources, learn to conserve fuels, improve energy efficiency, and so on. Government regulation and welfare could only provide a minimum of support.
On the other hand, we have to be impressed by the resiliency of the human spirit. In every case, we did adjust, we did innovate, we did take the initiative, and we did survive.

So. Here we are.

Syntroleum's Ultra-Clean Jet Fuel to be Tested in Landmark B-52 Flight Demo

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060915/20060915005325.html?.v=1

Friday September 15, 11:45 am ET

The FT aviation fuel will be blended with traditional JP-8 jet fuel for the flight test. Syntroleum's FT jet fuel stems from more than five years of considerable research and development efforts with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), focused on producing a high performance alternative fuel for military applications. The flight test is part of the DOD's Assured Fuels Initiative, an effort to develop secure domestic sources for the military's energy needs.

"This scheduled flight demonstration will be a significant and historical accomplishment for the company. We believe that successful testing of our fuel will provide the military with the experience necessary to consider long-term off-take agreements of fully tested FT fuels and we expect to meet the military's supply and quality needs. Through this program, we have clearly demonstrated that the military can depend on Syntroleum to meet its stringent fuel quality specifications under its Assured Fuels Initiative. Nobody else can make this statement," said Jack Holmes, president and CEO of Syntroleum.

The jet fuel being tested was produced from a natural gas feedstock, but Syntroleum believes the fuel can also be produced from the vast domestic coal resources.
The military is searching for a coal-based fuel for aviation use which could put the United States on a path to a more secure energy future.

"Having access to adequate supplies of jet fuel is a national security issue, and with an assured source, price fluctuations are reduced which provides stable planning and budgeting," said Bill Harrison, a fuels expert with the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio.

Besides military applications, successful testing of Syntroleum's FT jet fuel could lead to opportunities with commercial airlines.

"In light of high energy prices, we believe that successful military testing of our fuel could motivate commercial airlines to vigorously pursue FT aviation products for use in their fleet operations. This B-52 flight test could give birth to a whole new way of providing ultra-clean fuel to the aviation industry," Holmes said.

Previous research and testing by the military on Syntroleum's FT fuels have shown superior performance characteristics compared to aviation fuels produced by refining crude oil. Particulate matter and soot emissions have shown a reduction of greater than 90 percent depending upon the turbine engine type. The reduced particulate matter and soot emissions significantly improve engine efficiency, performance and overall air quality.

Syntroleum has produced more than 400,000 gallons of ultra-clean fuels at its Port of Catoosa facility near Tulsa, Okla. Besides Syntroleum's work with the DOD, the company has successfully tested its fuel in U.S. National Park Service vehicles and metrobuses in Washington D.C. and Tulsa through the U.S. Department of Transportation's ultra clean fuels program.

hallo jungs,

hob mir heute die OMV zugelegt.
KGV irgendwo bei 8, Öl-, Gas-, Osteuropaphantasie.
Was will man mehr.

Da kannst auch gleich auf Wienerwald setzen

OMV ? Ist ja ein klasse Chart - fasst Du gern in fallende Messer ?

Wenn ich mir das so ansehe, ist nach unten alles offen. Sobald die unter 35 fällt, bremst bis 25 Euro erstmal nichts mehr. Trotzdem viel Glück. Ich rechne da eher mit fallenden Kursen. Stop loss bei ca. 32 Euro halt ich für empfehlenswert

wenn nicht, wird nachgekauft.

Weise Entscheidung Bis zum bitteren Ende verbilligen Wie zu Zeiten des neuen Marktes wird dem schlechten Geld gutes hinterhergeworfen Aber zumindest bist Du überzeugt von Deinem Investment - good luck

du ausreichend infos über diese firma, würdest du dein letztes posting wohl zurücknehmen.
aber mach dir keine sorgen, ich hab mein depot im griff.

ps:
bin mittlerweile ja auch zum jungspund aufgestiegen. also wiedersprich mir nicht!

http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/23/23633/1.html

Iranische Öl-Börse wird in Rial, nicht in Euro verrechnen
Rainer Sommer 27.09.2006

Mit den Neuigkeiten wird der Spekulation über einen möglichen Kriegsgrund der USA der Wind aus den Segeln genommen
Dieses Frühjahr hatte die Iranische Öl-Börse (IOB) für einiges Aufsehen gesorgt. Ihre für 22. März angekündigte Eröffnung wurde mit Spannung erwartet und die Spekulationen über die möglichen Folgen für die Weltwirtschaft fanden nicht nur in allen US-Mainstreem-Medien ihren Niederschlag, auch "Spiegel" und Telepolis widmeten sich dem Thema (Iranische Öl-Börse).

...gleichzeitig in Dollar und Euro abgerechnet werde ... Clever

Ich hab bereits vor Wochen geschrieben daß ich mit einem Ölpreis unter 50 Dollar rechne - offenbar hat mich mein Gefühl nicht getäuscht. Nach der heutigen Ankündigung der OPEC man werde die Fördermenge drosseln, bin ich davon überzeugter denn je Heute ging der Ölpreis kurz nach oben - in einigen Tagen dürfte sich bei den Händlern jedoch die Erkenntnis durchsetzen, daß das Zeug doch nicht soviel wert ist, wie es den Anschein hatte - die Lager sind randvoll, die Amis fördern auch wieder, in Nahost ändert sich seit Wochen nicht viel, kaum Hurrikans etc..... Warum also sollte Öl heute bei 60 Dollar günstig sein, wenn man es noch vor 5-6 Jahren für 20 Dollar kaufen konnte

Ich sehe den ölpreis bis Mitte nächsten Jahres eher bei 40 Dollar als bei 70

Klimaphänomen El Niño kommt zurück
http://www.spiegel.de/wissensc…aum/0,1518,441142,00.html

Wohl pünktlich zu Weihnachten gibts Bescherung

@Edel

Danke für diese interessanten Infos. Ich bin eigentlich recht tief im Thema. Dennoch kann ich bei all den Abkürzungen ohne verbale Zusatzinfos hier nicht folgen.
Gibt es dazu (von der Quelle) oder von Dir ( ) eine Kommentierung, was uns das Ganze jetzt sagt?

Natürlich irgendwie "the peak is near". Dennoch wäre wichtig:
- wer steht hinter den jeweiligen Prognosen
- was bedeuten die relevanten Abkürzungen hier und
- welches peak (bei wieviel mbpd bzw. in welchem Jahr) ist denn nun am wahrscheinlichsten.

MERCI, falls Du oder sonstjemand hier mal kommentieren könnte!