Der Rohöl Thread

Danke für den Artikel Eldorado !

Sehr gut recherchiert der Junge.

PS: ne Rado hab ich auch, mit Goldstege

The oil price: - is jumping now because the globe is heading irresistibly towards a situation where there will simply not be enough oil to go around, irrespective of the oil price, which is certain to go a great deal higher as those nations caught without sufficient oil bid up the price which looks like heading through $100 a barrel and higher.

The drive behind oil price rises in the seventies came from O.P.E.C. fed up with being paid inflated $ for their oil, but a whisper from Uncle Sam in their ear [primarily the Saudi government] about their future being reliant on U.S. backing had them towing the line and dropping prices.

The day when supply is just insufficient is likely to appear in 2007 or thereabouts, but could come considerably earlier, if Iran diverts its supply just to China, or supplies are damaged through a sectarian war among Muslim nations. It could come far earlier if we have another Hurricane Rita, hits the Gulf of Mexico, say, Houston? With global warming there could be more than one such hurricane hit.

China and India are likely to be able to maintain growth through such difficult days too so keeping demand for oil rising inexorably. Visions of national "Musical Chairs" around the oil price jump into ones mind with visions of rationing in the worst affected nations.

In the middle sit the Producers of oil, no longer dependent on the U.S. for their demand, but having a choice between East and West, each willing to pay the price. They are already signing deals with China to supply oil. In addition to the dangers to the oil price mentioned above, lies the growing threat of a conflagration in the Middle East between the two main branches of Islam, the Shi'ites and the Sunnis. Oil exports will no doubt be a prime target of both sides. Hence these prices cannot be dropped by political influence. Rather the reverse is true!

http://www.321gold.com/editori…llips/phillips051506.html

Hi Folks,

habe auch ein paar ÖlAktien.
ZB. CONOCO PHILIPS
die haben momentan ein KG von 6,8
Und es gibt doch in New York tatsächlich Leute die verkaufen.............

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
The oil price: - is jumping now because the globe is heading irresistibly towards a situation where there will simply not be enough oil to go around

- Für jeden Liter Öl, den wir heute verbrauchen, findet man nur noch 0,25 Lieter neue Vorkommen oder wir verbrauchen viermal so viel, wie neue Vorkommen gefunden werden.

- Gemessen an der historischen Entwicklung der Kaufkraft sind Ölpreise immer noch niedrig.

- Es sind keine Ölreserven mehr vorhanden, um etwaige politisch induzierte Produktionsausfälle auszugleichen. Dies ist besonders beunruhigend, da sich viele Ressourcen in Ländern befinden, die als politisch instabil gelten.

- Der Bau neuer Raffinerien zum Ausgleich der weiter steigenden Öl-Nachfrage nimmt Jahre in Anspruch.

- die Produktionsstätten zur Weiterverarbeitung befinden sich an der Auslastungsgrenze.

usw., usw......

nach Börsenschluss kam heute die Hammernachricht zu Admiral Bay (ADB.V):

Admiral Bay Announces Completion of US$40,000,000 Credit Facility

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/060516/200605160328195001.html?.v=1

Das erinnert mich doch ganz stark, an den Beginn des Höhenfluges bei Falcon Oil & Gas:

- die Kreditgebende Bank ist die australische Macquarie Bank (wie bei Falcon)
- MC Admiral 69 Mio. CAD, Kreditvergabe i.H. von 40 Mio. CAD
- sofort verfügbar 15 Mio. CAD zur Beschleunigung der Gasprojekte im Cherokee Basin (Kansas) und dem Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania (auf Abruf weitere 25 Mio.)
- Kredit wird durch die Assets von Admiral abgesichert (da muß ganz schön was schlummern, Banken geben nicht gern solche Riesenkredite)
- weiterhin erhält Macquarie einen non-transferable share purchase warrant, der es ihr erlaubt ca. 5 Mio. Admiral Bay Aktien zu 1,60 CAD bis zum 16. Mai 2008 zu erwerben - aktueller Kurs 0,96 CAD

Grüße

@........,
wie ich zum Beispiel, hab die Meldung auch gelesen.
Das ist ein Financing! Respekt.

Nicht vergessen soll man, dass sie eine hervorragende Silberproperty in Mexico haben, aber die vollkommen links liegen lassen.
Aber wurde 03 schon exploriert.
Edel hat neulich mal eine karte (glaub bei Silber Comp.) reingestellt, da war sie auch zu sehen.

Die Aktie wird aber schön gedrückt. Lustig!
Die kleinen rauskegeln.....

Grüße
tschonko

So mancher stolze Ölstaat hat seine besten Zeiten bereits hinter sich

Weltweit werden kaum noch neue Vorkommen des schwarzen Goldes gefunden - Die Aussagen über die restlichen Reserven sind unzuverlässig.....

http://www.stuttgarter-zeitung…59019?_suchtag=2006-05-15

Zweiter Artikel:

"Der Druck auf den Markt wird weiter zunehmen"

Die Aspo, eine Gruppe von Wissenschaftlern weltweit, warnt vor dem Ende des Ölzeitalters - Ein Gespräch mit dem Präsidenten....

http://www.stuttgarter-zeitung…59018?_suchtag=2006-05-15

Ölsande und andere KW-Stoffe sind halt kein Öl.

Da sind die Medien schon ganz pingelich.

Silber durch Gold ersetzen, daß geht schon, aber nur auf dem Konto.

Einen Schönen Tag !
OH

Gestern und heute stark zurückgekommen, hat sich bei 1,50 CAD gefangen. Spekulative Einsteigsmöglichkeit meiner Meinung nach.

Grüße

Yesterday, was an ugly day across the board. It didn’t matter
whether you were in the banking sector or the mining or the
oil and gas sector, it was universally ugly. Caught in the
down-draft was International Frontier Resources, a junior that we
follow because of their number of high profile, high reward,
high risk plays in the North Sea and also their joint ventures
with Husky, EOG Resources and Pacific Rodera up in the
Mackenzie Valley of northern Canada. Every winter drilling
up there tends to attract a little attention. Yesterday though,
the partners announce some of their drilling results and the
market was less than impressed. What the market heard was
that in two drill stem tests on the shallow primary objective,
yielded a combined flow rate of 5 million cubic feet per day of
sweet gas. A 5 million mcf/d well in Alberta or Texas or most
other places is a dream come true for many oil and gas companies,
but up in the high cost Mackenzie Valley where there
is also no pipelines, some people consider it disappointing.
What got missed in the news release was the fact that they
only tested between 13% and 33% of what could be a huge
hydrocarbon column which could as little 164 feet, but also
could be as large as 328 feet. In other words, there is a whole
bunch more testing to be done here and there is still lots of
upside. Then again, there is that ugly market.

Bobelle die IFR kaufte ich vor dem Fall jetzt (- 17%)
Schau dir die Enbridge an, die profitieren bei der Oilsand Hausse sicherlich. (ENB.TO)
Vieles rennt durch deren Pipelines in Kanada.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/pi20060519952692

Weiter gehts mit der Aufstockung der Positionen. Den zwischenzeitlichen Buchgewinn von 70% hats fast komplett zerbröselt, heute Position um 80% aufgestock. In Frankfurt gabs eben sehr günstige Stücke abzufischen.

Grüße

Bobelle, viel Spass beim Fischen !
Das ""rote Meer"" ist voll davon.

Wow das ist ja ein Brocken, hoffe ich hab eine gute Fangquote!

Hab zum Glück noch ca. 1/3 Cash und fange an nach und nach aufzustocken. Am Anfang hatte ich das Gefühl, ich hätte mich zu früh getrennt von einigen Aktien (hab auch einige Prozente liegen lassen), aber im Moment freut mich der Cashanteil sehr. Meine Strategie in solchen Marktsituationen ist, sich auf seine Kernaktien zu konzentrieren, die man wirklich gut kennt und bei einer Übertreibung nach unten, kräftig aufzustocken. Die Aktien, die ich nicht so gut kenne (egal ob im plus oder minus) fliegen sofort raus. Bei WEL bin ich mir sehr sicher, daß sich der Markt irrt und nicht ich.

Hoffe wir lassen uns alle nicht allzu sehr frustrieren.

Grüße

@Eldo, ich glaub Deinen Einstiegskurs hast Du bald wieder. Hoffe es sprudelt nächstes Jahr.

International Frontier Resources Corporation: North Sea Exploration Well Planned
Tuesday May 23, 8:00 am ET

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(CCNMatthews - May 23, 2006) - International Frontier Resources Corporation (TSX VENTURE:IFR - News) announces that letter agreements have been signed with Palace Exploration Company (E&P) Limited ("Palace"), Oilexco North Sea Limited ("Oilexco" TSX: OIL LSE- AIM: OIL), Gulf Shores Resources Ltd. ("Gulf Shores" GUL TSX-V) and Eternal Energy Corporation ("Eternal" EERG - OTC) under which Oilexco, Gulf Shores and Eternal will drill a test well to evaluate the Laurel Valley prospect located in Quad 14 in the Outer Moray Firth area of the UK North Sea. The Laurel Valley #1 well will evaluate two prospective Jurassic oil targets and the Lower Cretaceous section identified on a 255 square kilometer 3D seismic survey. Drilling costs will be funded by Oilexco 75%, Gulf Shores 12.50% and Eternal 12.50%.

Drilling operations, using the Sedco 712 rig currently under contract to Oilexco, will commence on or before December 31, 2006. After drilling, working interests in the blocks will be held Oilexco - 45.00% (operator), Palace & Challenger - 26.00%, International Frontier - 10.4375%, Eternal - 9.1875% and Gulf Shores - 9.3750%. The agreement is subject to approval of the UK Department of Trade and Industry and execution of formal farm-in agreements.

The Company also reported today that a seismic review - farm-in option letter agreement has been executed covering blocks 21/8, 21/14 and 21/15b located in the Central Graben area of the North Sea. Under the agreement International Frontier, Oilexco, Gulf Shores and Eternal have until July 15, 2006 to elect to drill a farm-in well on the Quad 21 acreage held by Palace and Challenger Minerals (North Sea) Limited.

Commenting on the agreements company President, Pat Boswell, said the company is pleased to partner with Oilexco who have gained the reputation of being one of the most innovative and aggressive exploration companies in the UK sector of the North Sea. Oilexco had the foresight to contract a drilling rig under a long term arrangement when demand for rigs in the North Sea has reached record levels. Having a rig under long term contract allows Oilexco to develop any exploration successes in a timely fashion.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/060523/200605230328771001.html?.v=1

It’s one thing we keep learning with those “little itty-bitty” junior
oil and gas company’s that come up with a big play that could
change fortunes overnight. We learn again and again, that nothing
ever seems to happen on time. But in this case with Gulf Shores and
bigger partner International Frontier, at least we know now that it is
going to happen.

Pat Boswell of IFR, is one of the key guys behind a very significant
play in the North Sea, which I am sure you are going to hear a lot
more of over the next few months, because of its size.
While there is a lot of exploration being done these days on the
small pools that were left by the biggies 20 and 30 years ago when
exploration in the North Sea was so exciting, this is one of those big
ones that was left that could cause major drooling over the results.
While Boswell suggests that his technical people give a target
between 300 and 600 million barrels, a half a billion seems to be a
even number that people are working with and that represents an
enormous target that you would be happy to find anywhere in the
world, particularly in a relatively safe domicile like Britain.
He also tells us that according to the announcement, Oilexco suggests
that drilling will commence before year end, but part of Oilexco’s
problem is with their new discovery of Disraeli and when they will
use their rig to do additional appraisal wells there.
The one important thing though, is that at least it is getting explored,
because many of the permits in the North Sea states that if
you don’t get a look at them by a certain date there is a risk that you
can lose your permit.

Clive Stockdale, the former oil & gas analyst at Pemberton, Dominion
and Loewen Ondaatje, comes up with many of our favorite
high risk/high reward oil & gas plays and this was a story that he
talked about to us way back when Gulf Shores was $0.20 a share.
He says today, “it’s going to be fun” and the only difference between
what we expected a while ago and now is of course the time
difference, and then all of a sudden three plays we own shares of are
involved in the same play.

IFR has an advantage, though, in that they have a carried interest,
but the question to be asked about a little guy like GUL is, what
would a punter pay for a lottery ticket that if this well hits and hits
big, could be worth $15 or $17 a share? Would he pay $1.00, could
he pay $1.50 or could he pay $2.00?
We would be very disappointed if GUL is anywhere near it’s current
price when this play is spudded.

Canacccord am 23.05.06 zur IFR-Meldung

Kugel: Oil stocks in play if storms strike

Stocks should recover because inflation and interest rate worries are overblown. So says Al Kugel at Atlantic Trust Stein Roe. He also tells John Wordock to watch oil stocks if hurricanes strike, calling them a 'better bet' than home retail chains.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvr…910A0F2249%7D&siteid=yhoo