Das neue Südafrika

    Cut 'too late to save jobs'



    Apr 14 2005 05:13:03:050PM



    Johannesburg - The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) has welcomed the decision by the Reserve Bank to reduce the repo rate by 50 basis points, but it says far more vigorous action is needed to stem the tide of job losses in the mining and manufacturing sectors that have resulted largely from the overvaluation of the rand.
    "The decision to cut the repo rate demonstrates that the government has begun to recognise the distress that high real interest rates and the related overvaluation of the rand has caused our people.


    We would have preferred a deeper cut, as in real terms interest rates remain high, compared both to major economies overseas and to the historical situation in South Africa.


    Still, we hope this moderate reduction is a signal that the state is no longer willing to prop up the rand at unrealistic levels," it said.


    "The cut in the repo rate comes too late, however, to save the jobs of the thousands of workers on the mines and in manufacturing who have received retrenchment notices in the past few weeks.


    "Government should act immediately to encourage employers to reverse these decisions. Employers should reconsider their actions in light of the setback these job losses will impose on our people and our economy," it added.


    Cosatu said it was developing a plan of action on jobs and poverty to address the retrenchment issue. "We will discuss this programme at our Central Executive Committee next month," it said.

    Blacklisting 'to stop thieves'


    Apr 13 2005 01:38:59:230PM




    Pretoria - A new initiative to blacklist all stolen cellphones will remove one of the biggest incentives for theft, which often leaves the victim dead.
    It was announced on Wednesday that all cellphones reported stolen are to be blacklisted in future - rendering them immediately unusable, in terms of a new crime-prevention initiative announced by police and cellphone operators.


    National police commissioner Jackie Selebi said at a ceremony in Pretoria to witness the signing of an agreement to this effect that the initiative would remove the incentive for cellphone theft and robbery and prevent stolen cellphones being used to commit criminal acts.


    Selebi said: "I am glad we came together to say we need to limit the scope of criminals to use cellphones to further make this country look like a country that is not in control of itself."


    He quoted research indicating that cellphone theft was the sole motive for up to half of robberies in some areas - often leaving the victim dead. 8o 8o

    Gunned down for R10


    17/04/2005 08:19 - (SA)


    Sonia Molema



    Pretoria - The last time a Soshanguve teenager saw her father alive was on Monday night when he went to the local tuckshop to buy candles. A few minutes later he was lying in a pool of blood, dead.


    Peter Kekana, 48, was allegedly shot dead by tuckshop owner Hellen Malapile, 41, after a heated argument over his R10 change after buying candles and matches with a R20-note.


    Kekana died on the spot after being shot at close range with two bullets to the head.


    Back at home Stephina Kekana, 16, waited for her father to return with candles, unaware that the two gunshots she heard earlier had ended the life of her father.


    When residents ran to the tuckshop after hearing gunshots, she joined them, unaware that the person who lay dead was her father.


    "I pushed the crowd to have a clear view of the person who had been shot dead. I recognised my father by his blue sandals.


    "I came closer to the body and confirmed it was him. I called out his name but I got no response."


    Stephina said she cried and desperately tried to wake her father up.


    Her mother Rebecca, who was coming from work, also joined the crowd unaware that the person who was shot dead was her husband.


    'I thought I was dreaming'


    "It thought I was dreaming when I saw my husband's lifeless body on the ground," she said.


    An angry mob then went on a rampage and set Malapile's house and tuckshop alight. They also wanted to stone her but she was saved by the police.


    Malapile's assistant, Magdeline Moropola, told the police that an argument over R10 change led to Kekana's death.


    Apparently, Kekana bought a packet of candles and eight boxes of matches from her and claimed he had given her a R20-note.


    He argued that his change was supposed to be R10, but the assistant said she insisted that he had given her R10 and not R20.


    Moropola told the police that Kekana allegedly tried to take R10 out of the till. She then called her employer, Malapile, who after a lengthy argument with Kekana allegedly shot him at close range.


    Investigating officer Desmond Leemise said a murder case had been opened against Malapile, who appeared briefly at the Soshanguve magistrates' court on Friday. The court date was set for April 20 and Malapile was remanded.

    The 0.5% interest rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank caught every economist on the wrong side of the track. To a man (or woman) they all forecast no rate cut. The Rand immediately collapsed from R6.10 to R6.30 against the dollar. I believe it is immaterial whether this rate cut was introduced for economic reasons in view of falling manufacturing output or large current account deficit, as an aid to exporters or for political reasons related to union pressure.


    What really matters is the effect on the South African market and economy. First reactions are that as mortgage rates have also dropped by 0.5% the housing boom will continue unabated. In addition consumer spending and borrowing are expected to increase. But the main effect as far as I am concerned is on the currency. This rate cut, with the distinct probability of more to follow in the coming months, will dramatically reduce the interest rate differential between offshore borrowing rates and local bond rates making it far less attractive to deposit money in the South African financial markets. This is likely to be further influenced by rising offshore borrowing rates. The bottom line is that a capital outflow of all the funk money that poured into the country during the period of the strong Rand is likely as it repatriates to the offshore havens. As a strong currency play and interest rate differential market, South Africa is finished.


    This can only be good for the economy as investment in capital goods and industry is what is required, not funk money that will desert at the drop on an interest rate.


    The bounce in the Rand from R6.10 to touch R6.32 is a perfect signal to buy resource stocks as their export revenues will rise. The real analysis of the JSE now lies with an analysis of the Rand. Some schools of thought expect a gentle slide back to R6.70 at which point they anticipate a return to strength. Most economic observers are indicating a Rand back to at least R8 to the dollar. There are even some analysts believing that the Rand has seen its ultimate lows and will now revert back to test the previous weak lows of R14 to the $. I have consistently looked for a weaker Rand to move back to around R6.70 in the short term. After that I have to review the position but the data tends to indicate that further weakness is likely.


    Read more:


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey041705.html

    In den vergangenen Handelstagen verlor der südafrikanische Rand gegenüber dem Dollar deutlich an Boden. Dies wird vor allem Aktionäre von Goldminen am Kap freuen. Der Goldpreis in Rand ist aus unserer Sicht auch ein wichtiger Indikator für den Gesamtmarkt. Die Charttechnik gibt derzeit ein positives Signal. Eine so genannte Schulter-Kopf-Schulter Formation steht kurz vor der Vollendung. Dies sind in der Regel nachhaltige und verlässliche Formationen für eine Trendumkehr. Wir werden Ihnen zu gegebener Zeit mehr zu diesem Thema berichten.


    Aus:
    http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…berichte.php?storyid=1022

    Rand lifts head on strong euro



    Apr 19 2005 09:32:01:923AM
    By: Helmo Preuss



    Johannesburg - The rand opened firmer against major currencies in early trade on Tuesday morning.
    Currency traders said the recovery in the US equity market had eased concerns about global growth prospects, so there had been steady offshore dollar sales overnight, which prompted exporters to sell dollars on Tuesday morning.


    In addition, the euro had moved back above $1.30 late on Monday.


    At 08:45, the rand was quoted at R6.2500/US$r from Monday's close of R6.2726. It was quoted at R8.1384/€ from a previous R8.1309 and at R11.9030/£ from a close of R11.9400.


    The euro was quoted at $1.3026 from $1.3026 late on Monday and $1.2917 late on Friday, while gold was quoted at $427.70 a troy ounce from a previous $426.90/oz.


    "The rand is looking strong on the US equity recovery, as well as the stronger euro. I think we can get to R6.20 per dollar today," a currency trader said.


    He added that he expected the rand to trade in a R6.20 to R6.27 range, with the euro being the main source of direction.


    AFX reports that the US dollar was weaker late on Monday, particularly against the euro, reflecting expectations of slowing domestic economic growth and the implications of the G7's resistance to pressuring China on exchange-rate policy.


    Late in the session the euro was 1.3% higher at $1.3013 and the dollar down 0.2% at ¥107.55.


    Boosting the euro, the Group of Seven finance ministers over the weekend declined to step up pressure on China to switch over to a flexible exchange rate, said Bill Hoerter, a foreign-exchange analyst at Alaron FX.

    Mein Freund aus Deutschland der hier viele Jahre bis 2000 hier gelebt hat und ansich ein Fuchs ist, kam auf Besuch. Wir sprachen darueber wie es hier ausschaut und hatte andere Ansichten. Er sagte, schau mal wie hier alles boomed, und wie gebaut wird !!! 8o


    Naja, ...heute schickte er mir eine email und schrieb folgendes.


    Mein cellphone wurde gestohlen bei einer Ampel als zwei schwarze mit schusswaffen mich bedrohten sonst haette es BOOOM gemacht.
    Glueck hatte er das der wagen den er fuhr nicht highjacked wurde.


    Ich schrieb ihm nur, Ja Hans, es boomed hier, das verbrechen am meisten. ..... Welcome to the New RSA !


    Bogota is much safer ! :D



    mfg


    XEX

    Rand boosted by rise in gold price and global equities


    April 20, 2005


    By Lukanyo Mnyanda


    The rand gained against the dollar yesterday as the price of gold rose for the third consecutive day.


    "The rand cannot ignore what is happening in international markets," said Chris du Bois, the chief trader at Master Currency, a Cape Town-based chain of money changers. "Gold has held above that crucial $420 [an ounce] level."


    Gold, which makes up 13 percent of South Africa's exports, climbed to $432.13 (R2 669) an ounce in late European trade yesterday, from $425.75 on Monday. Platinum, the second-biggest export, gained as much as 0.5 percent to $865.50 an ounce.


    Against the dollar, the rand rose to R6.1775 at the close in Johannesburg from R6.2375 on Monday. It was at R8.0518 to the euro, from R8.1169. The local unit might climb as high as R6.10 to the dollar this week, Du Bois said.


    The rand usually rises against the dollar when the price of gold increases, with a correlation between the currency and the gold price over the last year of 0.79. A reading of 1 would mean they move in lock step.


    Demand for the rand also rose as global stock markets gained, easing concern investors would shun emerging market assets.


    Brazil's real, Mexico's peso and South Korea's won advanced versus the dollar. European stocks gained for the first day in four, with the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index rising. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average and the US's Standard & Poor's 500 index also rose.


    Foreign investors bought a net R307 million of South African shares on Monday, after selling reached a two-week high on Friday, JSE Securities Exchange data showed. The FTSE/JSE Africa all share index rose for the first day in three yesterday.


    The difference in yield, or spread, between South Africa's 10-year bond and the US treasury note of similar maturity was about 3.9 percentage points yesterday. The spread was as high as 4.3 percentage points on April 5, the highest this year, and has averaged about 4.96 percent in the past two years.


    The Reserve Bank unexpectedly reduced the repo rate by 50 basis points to 7 percent on April 14, reducing the gap with the US, where the Federal Reserve's target rate is 2.75 percent.


    The yield on the R194 weakened 3.5 basis points to 7.32 percent at the close yesterday, while the R153 bond's yield ended the day 0.5 basis points weaker at 7.68 percent.

    Die Tage des staken Rands sind gezählt. Ich denke wer jetzt noch nicht in SA investiert ist kann vorsichtig erste Positionen aufbauen. Ich bin (leider schon drin (Harmony), werde aber jetzt konsequent ein mal pro Monat nachkaufen.

    @eldo


    Boris war aber in London drin und Harmony oder Gold fields sind keine Besenkammer :D :D :D Boris hat auch eher nachgeschossen und nicht nachgekauft :P Finanzielle Aspekte interessierten Ihn dabei glaube ich nur am RAND(e). ;) ;) ;)

    @eldo


    Auf den Zeitpunkt möchte ich mich nicht festlegen, aber ich denke die Tage des starken Rand sind jetzt auch langsam gezählt, fundamentale Gründe gibts für den derzeitigen Kurs eh nicht. Werde mich daher entsprechend rechtzeitig positionieren. Werde wie angekündigt monatlich meine SA Positionen (Harmony und Aquarius Platinum) aufstocken. Ich befürchte, zwar einen weiterhin schwachen Dollar, aber der Rand wird noch stärker verlieren und so gegenüber dem US$ fallen.

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