Das neue Südafrika

Ja, wo ist nun der Boden

@eldo

das ist eine gute Frage. Ich hatte mir mal vor einem halben Jahr eine Kaufstrategie für Harmony zurechtgelegt. Habe unter anderem Nachkäufe bei 6, 5 und 4 EURO reingelegt. Die Nachkäufe für 6 und 5 Euro sind schon ausgeführt worden wobei ich ja evtl. mit 6 EURO gerechnet hatte aber 5 und 4 EURO für mich eigentlich nicht realistische waren. Habe mir das alles sorgfältig ausgerechnet gehabt. Denke dass es schlimmstenfalls noch bis 4 EURO runtergehen kann aber Garantie dafür gibt es natürlich nicht.

valueman

Ich habe gerade das gegenteil gemacht und call optionen GFI HMY fuer R 80 gekauft mit laufzeit 15.4 und 15.6. 2005. Das ging aber voll in die Hose !
Dachte der Rand stuerzt schon frueher ab, aber der ist nach wie vor zu stark.

Mit Put Optionsscheinen gehts dir jedoch ganz gut, gratuliere !

Gruss

Eldorado

hahaha ja eldo dein riecher war schon immer gut

Petzi

Schadenfreude ist auch eine Freude, die einzige die du im Leben hast !
Aber zum Glueck habe ich noch weitere 130 verschiedene Aktien die dann gewisse Verluste wieder ausgleichen.
Ich bin doch nicht bloed !
Zeig mir einen der noch nie verloren hat der in GM aktien investiert hat. Man hat erst verloren wenn man verkauft, der rest ist reiner verlust am papier. Bleod reden kann jeder, ich glaube du hast bis heute noch keine aktien und wirst auch niemals welche haben soweit ich dich bis jetzt kennengelern habe, Rookie !

@eldo

Calls auf SA-Goldminen Da hast du natürlich ziemlich mit Zitronen gehandelt. Aber einen Versuch war es wert, denke ich....wenn der Rand geschwächelt hätte wären alle SA-Minen ohnehin schon eine Call-Option....mit dem entsprechenden Scheinchen dazu hättest Du Dich ja fast zur Ruhe setzten können.

Die Idee war zwar riskant aber gut....nicht aufgegangen....pech gehabt....auf ein Neues.

Zu überlegen wäre ein Rand/US$ Put mit ausreichender Laufzeit. Etwas weniger Risiko wie bei GM und dass der Rand jetzt noch weiter deutlich gegenüber dem US$ gewinnt glaube ich nicht.

Grüsse

valueman

Mit Options und Warrants, Puts and Calls, habe ich nicht viel glueck.
So geht es mir auch in einen Spielcasino und es gefaellt mir nicht da ich mein eigenes Viva Las Vegas habe. Next time I get it right !

Pass auf der Rand kann nochmal fuer Ueberraschung sorgen und unter 6 R/$ marschieren. Ich weiss nur es ist eine der groessten manipulationen die 20 Jahre vorgeplant wurde um die Minen in bestimmte haende zu bekommen.

Gruss

Eldorado

SA belongs to all - Mbeki

27/04/2005 14:22

Durban - South Africa has steadily become a country that belongs to all, President Thabo Mbeki told the main Freedom Day gathering in Durban on Wednesday.
"Where there could have serious racial conflict because of our past, our people - particularly those who were oppressed - have ... forgiven those responsible for their untold suffering," he said.

Thousands of people packed the stands at the Absa Stadium to listen to Mbeki and join in festivities to celebrate the beginning of South Africa's second decade of democracy.

Mbeki said the challenges of the coming decade were numerous and daunting. Some believed it was the sole responsibility of the government to tackle these matters.

"These include those who don't take the initiative to do something about their circumstances but always complain that government is not doing anything for them," Mbeki said.

"These people, to whom South Africa also belongs, usually fold their arms when their compatriots engage in self-reliance programmes."

News24/SAPA

AnGold Ashanti digs for DRC gold

Apr 26 2005 03:25:22:817PM

Kinshasa - South African gold mining giant Anglogold Ashanti has entered into a partnership with the Democratic Republic of Congo to explore and mine the yellow metal in the mineral-rich country's northern Ituri region.
A source in the mines ministry late on Monday said the joint venture, Ashanti Gold Kilo, would be based in Mongwalu, near the gold-rich area of Kilo.

Ashanti Gold Kilo is sinking between $30m to $40m to explore and mine gold from an 8 000km² site, thought to contain gold reserves of up to 100 tonnes.

The South African company had started prospecting in the area in May last year but stopped soon after due to the lack of security in the turbulent region.

Since 1999, inter-ethnic violence and attacks by various militia have claimed more than 60 000 lives in Ituri, according to humanitarian sources.

A spurt in violence between December 2004 and April saw some 100 000 people fleeing their homes.

However, the return of UN peacekeepers abut 11 days ago have served to calm investors in an area boasting one of the richest gold reserves in central Africa.

AnGold Ashanti fails to shine

Apr 29 2005 05:44:30:687PM

Johannesburg - World number two gold miner AngloGold Ashanti has reported a 63% decline in headline earnings per share for its March 2005 quarter to 39 cents from 104 cents in the December 2004 quarter.

Analysts had expected a marginal increase in headline earnings per share to 68 cents, with forecasts ranging from 55 cents to 78 cents.

AngloGold Ashanti gold output fell 5% to 1.569 million troy ounces in the March quarter

Following its long planned closure, the group's Ergo mine in South Africa was being treated as a discontinued operation and the December 2004 quarter's numbers had been restated to exclude Ergo.

The group also attributed the decline in production to lower South African production and usually strong performances during the December 2004 quarter at its 40% held Morila mine in Mali and Cerro Vanguardia in Argentina, in which AngloGold Ashanti has a 92.5% stake.

The group's gold price received rose 7% to R82 152/kg from R76,691/kg or US$424/oz from $395/oz. The increase in the price was attributed to the restructure of the group's hedge announced in January 2005.

The restructuring of the hedge announced in January had "delivered the intended positive impact on our received price more closely matching the average spot price for the quarter", AngloGold Ashanti Chief Executive Officer Bobby Godsell said.

AngloGold Ashanti's total cash costs rose 2.8% to R54 778/kg from R53 299/kg or $284/oz from $274/oz.

The group's total net delta of its hedge position rose to 10.72 million oz at the end of March from 10.49 million oz at the end of December 2004.

As at Tuesday this week, AngloGold Ashanti's marked-to-market value of its hedge book stood at a negative $1.046bn based on a gold price of $432/oz, the group said.

Ashanti assets
In respect of the former Ashanti assets, Godsell said that the March quarter had seen improvements in many areas.

After five quarters of decline, gold production at the Obuasi mine increased by 2% to 92 000 oz, with tonnage treated up 10% on the previous quarter.

"I'm pleased to say that during April, underground grades at Obuasi have improved by one gram per ton and management expects production to show progressive increases in each of this year's remaining quarters," Godsell said.

While production at Siguiri in Guinea, 85% held by AngloGold Ashanti, was constant quarter-on-quarter, total cash costs improved 9%.

At Iduapriem in Ghana, in which the group has an 85% stake, production improved 10% with cash costs down 19%.

Similarly, Geita in Tanzania, wholly owned by the group, saw production up slightly with total cash costs down 19%.

"These improving trends across the Ashanti assets are important and give me much encouragement about what these assets can contribute to this company as the year progresses," Godsell said.

Margins

Referring to margins, he observed that it was undoubtedly a great frustration for investors that as the gold price had risen over the past year, margins in gold companies had shrunk.

One of the drivers of the higher gold price was the weaker US dollar, which in turn meant stronger operating currencies in almost all of AngloGold Ashanti's producing regions including Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Namibia and South Africa.

Added to this, significantly higher oil prices and the growth demands of China had translated into price inflation in many of the company's consumables such as cement, tyres and steel.

Quantum increases in the cost of contract mining were also being seen, AngloGold Ashanti said.

"The net impact for this company is higher total cash costs expressed in US dollar terms and reduced margins. This is the challenge that we have to take head on as we seek to improve our returns to investors," Godsell said.

"This year we have budgeted for a further $50 million in cost savings, following the $50 million in savings we achieved last year. In light of the continuous cost pressure evident this quarter, additional measures are being implemented to ensure that the company reaches its published total cash cost target for the year of $273/oz," he added.

Cops 'forget' to fetch accused

29/04/2005 22:18 - (SA)

Middelburg - Two men suspected of murdering a 15-year-old girl during a satanic ritual failed to appear in the magistrate's court as scheduled on Friday.

This happened after police forgot to collect one suspect, Selwin Jacobs, 20, from a psychiatric hospital in Grahamstown.

Jacobs and Leonardo Brown, 19, have been charged with murder after Melanie Esau's decomposed body was found on January 15.

At the time of the discovery, there were rumours that Melanie's heart had been removed and that parts of her body had been cut off and eaten by her killers.

Jacobs was sent for psychiatric observation while a district surgeon found there was nothing wrong with Brown. The two suspects will appear in court on May 3.

Edited by Iaine Harper

Traffic-fines chaos for CT

29/04/2005 22:18 - (SA)

Theuns van der Westhuizen

Cape Town - Attempts to collect about R405m in outstanding traffic fines in the Cape metropole area have ended in chaos - again.

This time, a computer problem has resulted in thousands of suspected traffic offenders receiving invalid tickets sent out by Labat Traffic Solutions - the company appointed by the Cape Town council to oversee the collection of fines.

Attempts to collect the money were delayed initially after data had to be gathered from seven municipalities and then entered into a single system.

After this, those who had to serve summonses complained last year that Labat was not giving them enough work.

Rudi Wolter, spokesperson for the office of the mayoral committee for safety and security, said the latest problem was discussed on Friday morning with Labat and senior officials.

They were asked to investigate the technical and legal aspects of the problem and to submit a report by Tuesday.

Details of the findings and how the issue will be dealt with will be released on Wednesday.

Traffic tickets were not sent out

Wolter explained that, at this stage, it appeared as if details pertaining to offences caught on traffic cameras in January and February were entered into Labat's data system.

But, the actual tickets were not issued or sent out to offenders.

As a result, offenders were not issued with their first warnings within 30 days of committing the offence.

The computer was programmed to issue a second ticket - or reminder - at a specific time. This was done.

Steps have been taken to prevent similar problems from happening in future.

Wolter said the city council and its traffic department were not focused on making money from traffic fines.

"Our purpose is to make roads and streets safer for everyone. Offenders must be brought to book, even if it is long after the offence took place."

Edited by Iaine Harper

Police warn of bogus cops

29/04/2005 16:05 - (SA)

Related Articles :

Bogus cops rape woman

Bogus cops arrest, rob man

Bogus cops hijack man's car

Bogus cops hijack truck

Bogus cops dupe police

Johannesburg - Bogus police have been robbing people on the East Rand, ordering their victims to go with them and holding them up at gunpoint if they disobey, police warned on Friday.

In the most-recent incident, on Thursday, four men and a woman "apprehended" a 54-year-old man in Boksburg.

"When the man became suspicious and tried to flee, one of the men threatened him with a firearm," said superintendent Andy Pieke.

"They took R2 500 and fled."

Earlier this month, also in Boksburg, three men questioned a 33-year-old woman in connection with a "stolen bag".

"A while later they threatened the woman with a firearm and took R4 000 cash she had on her and fled.

Pieke said people should be especially wary after withdrawing large amounts of cash and ensure they were not followed or distracted.

He advised that if they feared something was wrong, they should return to the bank or go somewhere where there was a security presence.

Edited by Iaine Harper

Posted to the web on: 29 April 2005
Decline in SA’s gold output ’hard to reverse’

John Fraser

LAST year saw the sharpest fall in global gold output since 1943, with SA, Indonesia and Australia being worst affected, according to a new survey by London-based consultancy GFMS.

The survey said that the decline in SA’s output would be difficult to reverse.

“Mine suspensions and shaft closures featured heavily (in SA) last year, principally as a consequence of the rand-dollar exchange rate,” GFMS said.

Meanwhile, South African mines faced a 15% jump in cash costs in dollar terms, due to the strong rand as well as hefty price rises for fuel, water and energy.

The report said global prospects for this year “appear to be somewhat brighter” with a projected 4% rise in gold output.

The GFMS survey was upbeat on the prospects for the gold price, saying there was “considerable scope over the next year for an event-driven spike in the gold price towards the $500 (an ounce) mark.”

It said a new wave of investment demand in the second half of this year “will drive gold prices to well above last year’s high of $454/oz”.

“Political tensions, having arguably declined somewhat this year to date, are set to grow in the second half, perhaps significantly so,” the report said.

“In particular, the situation in the Middle East remains highly volatile, especially against the backdrop of record nominal oil prices,” it said.

It also said global jewellery fabrication rose 5% last year, a rise which was “particularly noteworthy given that dollar gold prices rose almost 13% last year”.

Gold miners tossed about in March quarter

May 1, 2005

By Nicky Smith

Johannesburg - The March quarter lived up to its reputation as the worst for gold companies as all the local producers reported lower volumes and higher costs.

The four majors - DRDGold, Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti - are all very different companies, but all were affected by the weak US dollar. Margins were eroded as the currencies in which they pay expenses appreciated against the dollar.

The local gold industry's battle with the strong rand is well documented. Perhaps the most dramatic evidence of just how much the rand has been hurting it was the partial implosion of DRDGold's Northwest Operations.

Mark Wellesley-Wood, the chief executive, said it had felt as though the company had been visited by the seven plagues of Egypt. Earthquakes, fires, technical failures and unseasonally high rainfall - never forgetting the lower rand gold price - forced DRD to make the controversial decision to liquidate its Northwest Operations, which account for about a third of the company's production.

The move puts about 6 000 jobs on the line if the liquidators are not able to find a firm to buy it.

But, as ever, Wellesley-Wood was upbeat about the new-look DRD, describing the March quarter "as the storm before the calm".

And a little ray of sunshine fell on its Blyvoor mine, which broke even during the quarter.

Next to report was Harmony, which has been restructuring to deal with the stronger rand.

The company reported an awesome R1.7 billion loss for the quarter, and in the days that followed the share price dropped to lows last seen four years ago.

Harmony was forced to write down the value of some of its mines, which accounted for about R1.5 billion of the loss.

Efforts to outpace the rand were destroyed by a two-week strike at the Free State operations.

In the past year, the company has retrenched about 8 000 people. The last of the large retrenchments of 4 900 workers from the Free State is under way.

Chief executive Bernard Swanepoel said the costs of Harmony's bid for Gold Fields had totalled R150 million to date.

Gold Fields' earnings for the quarter plunged 86 percent to R11.2 million despite solid cost control. Costs associated with defending itself from Harmony's unsolicited advances were responsible for a large chunk of the disappointing earnings performance. Gold Fields has to date spent about R170 million on the bid.

At least 20 percent of the group's South African production is loss making, and while it valiantly managed to keep its costs flat it was the operations in Ghana and Australia that gave the performance a pinch of pep.

AngloGold Ashanti reported on Friday that the restructuring of its hedge book had started to pay off as the company was able to get better prices for its gold than it had in the past.

Chief executive Bobby Godsell indicated on Friday that AngloGold had revised its estimates of how quickly the assets it had inherited in its merger with Ashanti a year ago could be turned around.

AngloGold reported earnings of R76 million versus R253 million in the December quarter.

Robbers play cops in Kimberley

30/04/2005 18:18 - (SA)

Johannesburg - An ex-policeman and four others have appeared in court in Pretoria following their arrest for a robbery in Kimberley in which they allegedly masqueraded as police, Northern Cape police said.

Police found police uniforms, bulletproof vests, date stamps, blue police lights and two unlicenced firearms at some of group's homes, Captain Tony Modise told reporters.

At their hearing on Friday, the case was postponed to May 3, when they will appear in the Kimberley magistrate's court.

They were Jack Pos, 33, of Leondale, Alberton; Oupa Abel Mawela, 47, of Mamelodi in Tshwane; Sifiso Sammy Mkhonto, 25, Johannes Mokatseng, 48, of Galeshewe, Kimberley and former Mamelodi policeman Simon Sello Mahlakoana, 44.

The five were arrested in Kimberley with the assistance of the police dog unit from Gauteng :D, in an operation that ended on Thursday, Modise said.

Crime Statistics RSA :
http://www.saps.gov.za/statist…s/rsa_totals03_04_new.pdf

90 inmates share one toilet

01/05/2005 16:27

Johannesburg - Conditions at the Johannesburg Prison were "totally unacceptable," correctional services portfolio committee chair Dennis Bloem has said.
Speaking after an inspection visit to the jail on Sunday, Bloem said the facility's infrastructure was "suffering" as a result of overcrowding.

"In the awaiting-trial prisoners section which I visited, there were 7 000 inmates, three times more than what that area can accommodate.

"The one prisoner I spoke to said he has been awaiting for his trial for seven years now, which is unfair.

"What will happen to him should he be tried and found not guilty after such a long time behind bars?"

Bloem said in one cell, 90 inmates had to share one toilet and shower.

"The sewage system there is suffering and toilets are blocked and everything. The conditions are really appalling," he said.

Bloem said Johannesburg Prison was designed to accommodate about 6 000 prisoners but currently housed 14 000.

He said there needed to be an investigation into why courts were taking so long to have prisoners tried.

"This is why we support the Minister's (Ngconde Balfour's) decision to have some prisoners - arrested for petty crimes - released," Bloem said.

He said the government was currently in the process of building prisons in Kimberley, Leeuwkop, Klerksdorp and Nelspruit which were expected to be completed during the current financial year.

Bloem said he would be visiting more prisons around the country this week.

News24/SAPA

Bürokratie stoppt Südafrikas weitere Entwicklung in der Bergbaubranche

02.05.2005 cs - GOLDINVEST.de Daily

Wie kommt es, das Tansania für Bergbauinvestitionen viel attraktiver geworden ist als das benachbarte, besser entwickelte Südafrika? Dies ist für Südafrikas Politik eine unangenehme, aber unbestreitbare Tatsache. Tansania verfügt über eine sprießende Goldbergbaubranche und Explorationen werden intensiv betrieben.

Seit rund einem Jahrzehnt haben sich die Regelungen auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent für den Bergbau langsam durch die Erfahrungen mit der Weltbank und dem International Monetary Fund über ihre Interaktionen mit den souveränen Staaten des Kontinents entwickelt:

In Tansania ist beispielsweise der Steuersatz für Gewinn aus dem Bergbau 25 % und die Regierung erhält eine Lizenzgebühr von 1,5 % des Verkaufserlöses der Rohstoffe. In der Demokratischen Republik Kongo wurde die Lizenzgebühr auf 2 % und der Steuersatz auf 25 % festgelegt. In Südafrika hingegen gilt ein Steuersatz von 29 % bei einer Lizenzgebühr zwischen 2 % und 8 %. Dies ist ungewöhnlich hoch im Vergleich zu den anderen afrikanischen Staaten.

In Südafrika kam es in den letzten 20 Jahren auch zu keinen nennenswerten Explorationen. Grund hierfür ist wahrscheinlich wiederum die Regelung zur Besteuerung von Bergbauunternehmen: Die Kosten der Explorationsaktivitäten schmälern nicht das zu versteuernde Einkommen der Unternehmen. Eine Regelung, die in anderen Staaten ganz anders gehandhabt wird: Dort mindern natürlich Explorationskosten den zu versteuernden Gewinn. So z.B. in den USA, wo diese Regelung wohl einen Teil zur Prosperität im 20. Jahrhundert beigetragen hat.

Weiterhin scheint die südafrikanische Bürokratie unfähig zu sein neue Explorationslizenzen zu vergeben. Ein Beispiel für die Auswirkungen dieses Problems: Letzten Monat packte die australische Bergbaugesellschaft Argosy ihre Zelte und verließ das Land. Das Unternehmen hatte bis dahin bereits einen Explorations-Vertrag mit einer inländischen Gesellschaft geschlossen und auch die „Gesellschaft zur Beteiligung von Schwarzen an der Wirtschaft“ Umnotho mit einem Anteil von 15 % an den Explorationsvorhaben beteiligt. Für das Projekt sind die Explorationslizenzen im März letzten Jahres ausgelaufen und, obwohl bereits die Verlängerung frühzeitig vor deren Auslaufen beantragt wurde, sind diese bis heute nicht verlängert worden.

Darüber hinaus haben die Behörden inzwischen weiterhin bestimmt, dass mindestens 51 % an neuen Explorationsprojekten von „Gesellschaft zur Beteiligung von Schwarzen an der Wirtschaft“ gehalten werden müssen. Die australische Explorationsgesellschaft erklärte, dass sie außerstande sei, diese Regelung umzusetzen. Also verließ es Südafrika.

Derweilen warten weitere 3.000 Explorationslizenzen bei den Behörden auf Ihre Genehmigung.

In einem anderen Fall, der fehlgeschlagenen Übernahme von Gold Fields durch Harmony (beide in Südafrika), beklagte nun Hamonys Chef Bernard Swanepoel die bürokratischen Hemmnisse in dem Land: Die ganzen Verfahren erlauben den Beamten zu große Ermessensspielräume. Im vorliegenden Fall waren zwei unterschiedliche Behörden nicht imstande sich über den zeitlichen Ablauf des Verfahrens zu einigen.

Ob Harmonys Übernahmeversuch dann geglückt wäre ist ein anderes Thema.

Südafrikas Rahmenbedingungen für den Bergbau mögen der Wunschtraum vieler Bürokraten sein, aber er ist der Alptraum aller Unternehmer.

Let’s Get Ready to Rumble

http://news.goldseek.com/SilberInfo/1115301603.php

@Eldo,

was steht denn eigentlich drin in dem Aufsatz von der Silberinfo-Konkurrenz?

Ich habe nach dem Lesen eines Drittels aufgegeben und nur noch den Schluß gelesen. Dort scheint mir zu stehen, der Rand kann entweder hoch oder runter gehen. Hast Du mehr entnommen?