Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Golden Globes & Drama Queens
    John Mackenzie
    jrmfl@adelphia.net
    April 29, 2004


    I tend to run, not walk, when the operatic din of Gold's Advisors' begins to crescendo. At times, some of the well-intentioned Gold Bull Advisors begin an intensely dramatic stampede towards the plateau, only to fall off the high bluff along with their communal herds.


    Rather than play the "Game," they are "Played."


    Let's be honest, brutally honest about what will break the paper markets control.

    It is very simple, Richard Russell and many of the sharper advisors suggest it daily. I tell my community to purchase the metal prior to buying a single share of gold mining equities.


    Buy the physical metal, the mining equities are paper promises and subject to the whims of the market and its interventionist policy. Purchase honest money!
    Any rationale individual comprehends what Gold represents, there's little need for drama and drama queens, but intelligent and honest discourse about what potential threats abound.


    If we in the Gold Community agree to agree that Gold represents a very real threat to the Fiat Currency Regime, then we should expect to be played by these masters of global banking.


    At present, here are my observations:


    The broad market internals are now very similar to September / October of 1987
    .
    SOX either gets it in gear here and now or the Nasdaq follows through to the downside
    .
    XAU leading DOW is not bullish for broad markets... not at all, this is very rare
    .
    HUI projecting 118 (+/- 7.5) this summer, July at latest
    .
    HGX appears to be breaking down quickly, a bounce is due, but it should begin a steep decline again soon
    .
    FOMC has had its foot to the floor on the Temporary Open Market Operations. They are clearly concerned and we will have to watch and see just how aggressive the Fed becomes
    .
    Gold, the metal will lag the miners on the downside, targets are from 272 to 376, with 368, 354, 342, 330, 308 my downside targets open, with 342 to 368 probable at this point, but it's early still, if we breach 376 this week, I would suggest a lowering of implied range is open
    .
    The Dollar can rally to an extreme high, 92/94 to 104 is now open
    .
    2004/2005 will see Gold increase in price to levels I would rather not predict, but well north
    of the previous high. It will merely "begin" to approach its VALUE. I fully expect the exact opposite in the bottoming process... it will not be a process, but an EVENT
    We will need to be observant of the Dollar, Bonds and Asia. The Federal Reserve is going to enter its own version of "panic" later this summer as the deflationary forces begin to take hold. They will do what they have always done: intervene, expand credit and monetize debt.


    Once the Fed begins to hyper-inflate we can rest assured gold will be heading far higher. We will need to remain open to several potential outcomes for mining equities, bull and bear.


    (GANZ GENAU SO VERHÄLT ES SICH WOHL ! - meint Spieler )


    April 29, 2004
    John Mackenzie
    jrmfl@adelphia.net

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Ha,ha, Google soll beim IPO mit 25 - 35 Milliarden Marktkapitalisierung bewertet werden. Das bei einem Jahresumsatz 2003 von etwa 900 Millionen $ und etwas über 100 Millionen Gewinn. Mitarbeiterzahl 2000.


    Dieses Schnäppchen sollte man sich doch nicht entgehen lassen. Ich sag nur: zeichnen. Am besten das überbewertete Gold dafür raushauen.
    Hoffentlich werd ich auch berücksichtigt. Der Weg zum Millionär kann so leicht sein.


    :D :D :D

    http://205.232.90.194/editorials/appel/appel043004.html


    (..)
    Earlier, during the great gold and commodities Bull Markets of the 1970's, there were numerous brief and a few extended price collapses that tested the mettle of those participants who were aligned with the gold bull. The most chilling set-back began from the peak at $200 on January 1, 1975, the day that gold again became legal for Americans to own. It terminated a year and a half later in the summer of 1976, when gold bottomed at $103. It was a grueling, nerve-wrenching period, but it was followed by gold's march to its ultimate $875 peak in February, 1980. Each time that the bears temporarily gained the upper hand, and prices sharply fell, it similarly sent chills and tremors through the hearts of the "gold bug" investors of that era. However, in the end, massive profits accrued to those who stayed the course and rode the Bull Markets to or near their conclusions.


    ---> Das haben wir ja gemeinsam oben schon festgestellt: Siehe bognairs tolle Charts

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://62.146.24.165/grafik/godmodetop.gif]


    29.04. 22:30
    Zinsängste lähmen US-Markt
    (©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)



    Die Furcht vor steigendem Zinsen und allmählich erwachende Inflationsängste lähmten den US-Aktienmarkt heute erneut. Das Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im letzten Quartal war mit 4,2 Prozent unterhalb der Erwartungen geblieben. Dagegen kletterte etwa die Arbeitskosten um deutliche 1,1 Prozent, was die meisten Ökonomen überrascht hatte. Einige enttäuschende Unternehmensdaten vom Vortag belasteten heute vor allem wieder den Hightech-Sektor.


    Der Dow Jones Index tauchte heute im Handelsverlauf bis auf 10.219 Punkte ab, bis er sich in den letzten Stunden wieder etwas erholte und schließlich mit einem Abschlag von 0,68 Prozent bei 10.272 Zählern zum Stehen kam. Der breitere S&P 500 verlor 0,76 Prozent auf 1113 Zähler, der Nasdaq Index fiel um 1,55 Prozent auf 1958 Stellen.


    Unter Druck kamen vor allem Chiptitel nach einer Abstufung des Sektors durch American Technology Research und dem gestrigen enttäuschenden Ausblick von LSI Logic. Intel gaben heute 0,83 Prozent auf 26,13 Dollar ab, Applied Material verloren 2,69 Prozent auf 2,69 Prozent auf Dollar, LSI Logic selbst rutschten um 10,1 Prozent nach unten auf 7,57 Dollar. Die Titel von Nokia verbilligten sich um 2,26 Prozent auf 14,27 Dollar, nachdem ein Marktforscher den sinkenden Marktanteil der Finnen im Handy-Geschäft dokumentiert hatte.


    Der Euro legte heute wieder um 1,15 Prozent auf 1,15 Dollar zu. Die Rendite 10jähriger Staatsanleihen stieg von 4,54 auf 4,5 Prozent. Juni-Rohöl verlor an der New York Mercantile Exchange 15 Cents auf 37,31 Dollar; der Gold-Juni-Future kletterte 1,20 auf 387,10 Dollar.

    @ Option


    Genau: Ich erinnere an den Bericht von ein paar Jahrem bei RTL Explosiv wo von einer Angestellten von Popnet berichtet wurde, die durch zeichnen der Aktien ihres Unternehmens richtig reich geworden ist.


    Kann ich nur empfehlen. Immerhin ist der aktuelle Kurs von Popnet dem Wert des Unternehmens angepaßt, nämlich....


    NULL


    Von daher ist Google natürlich sehr empfehlenswert. Immerhin ist Google die einzige Suchmaschine im riesigen Internet und sogar Yahoo hat sich von Ihr als Partner getrennt um eigene Wege zu gehen.


    Außerdem ist Google sehr beliebt bei Spamern, die es immer wieder schaffen, daß bei einfachen Suchaufträgen, die das kleine, unscheinbare Wort "kaufen" enthalten, die ersten Trefferseiten gleich in die Tonne gekloppt werden können.


    Also ein klares Strong Buy Google. Ups, mein Englisch ist nicht so gut, es muß wohl heißen:


    Good by Google

    Handelt es sich bei dieser Information um einen Witz, oder um eine weitere "Manipulation" und "Irreführung" der Anleger?


    Hätte da mal eine Frage


    Vor kurzer Zeit erst soll die Schweizerische Kreditanstalt "Kredit Swiss" eine Bilanz vorgelegt haben, bei der total überraschend ca. "4.5 Milliarden Gewinne" ausgewiesen worden seien. Die Aktienpreise sollen danach hochgerannt sein. Ist ja auch kein Wunder, wenn unerhofft solche Riesen-Gewinne von dieser Schweizer Bank publiziert werden. Soll in allen Zeitungen, und im Fernsehen gross aufgemacht veröffentlicht worden sein.


    Einige Zeit später, soll vor einigen Tagen gewesen sein, hätte die Bank jedoch kleinlaut bekanntgegeben, dass sie diese Zahlen korrigieren müssten, weil einerseits jetzt andere Kriterien zur Bilanzierung angewendet würden, und andererseits der Bank einige "kleinere Berechnungsfehler" unterlaufen seien. Dadurch sei der neue Gewinn jetzt nur noch ca." 700 Millionen" Franken. Nur jetzt sei bei den Schweizer Zeitungen nichts, oder nur ganz klein darüber berichtet worden.


    Kennt jemand diesen Sachverhalt genauer?

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imgfarm.com/images/money_subheadlogo3.gif]


    http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/n…&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw


    Stillwater Mining posts 1st-qtr profit

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://money.iwon.com/img/logo_reuters.gif] 

    Thursday April 29, 4:21 PM EDT


    NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC), the only U.S. producer of palladium and platinum, on Thursday said it posted a quarterly profit, versus a year-ago loss, helped by higher prices and higher demand for palladium.


    The Columbus, Montana company reported first-quarter net income of $15.8 million, or 17 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $1.8 million, or 4 cents a share, in the year-ago period.



    ©2004 Reuters Limited.

    Aus´m w:o Board vom 19.03.03:
    Hier wird Malik so zitiert (volle Text nicht mehr einsehbar):
    "Kursrally bedeutungslos


    - keine längere Erholung
    - Börsenfolklore


    Der Kursanstieg der letzten paar Tage ist meines Erachtens nicht, wie viele glauben, der Beginn einer längern Erholung. Er ist eher ein kurzes Zögern vor einem möglicherweise dramatischen Sturz. Nur eine Minderheit rechnet damit; nur wenige können es sich überhaupt vorstellen."


    Schätze, mit dieser Prognose lag er leicht daneben.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif]


    http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4962951&action=article


    Breaking news


    2004-04-29 19:21 GMT:

    Gold futures climb, close above $387


    SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- June gold closed at $387.10 an ounce, up $1.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following a more than $13 loss in the previous session. Earlier, prices fell to a six-month low of $380.50. July copper tacked on 1.4 percent to close at $1.1925 per pound, but July silver closed down 0.8 percent, July platinum fell 2 percent, and June palladium fell 3 percent. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.thestar.com/images/star/nav/star_banner.gif]


    Apr. 29, 2004. 09:09 AM


    Inmet Mining's Q1 profit soars to $23M


    FROM CANADIAN PRESS


    Inmet Mining Corp. more than tripled its net profits in the first quarter because of higher metal prices and the company's increasing copper operations.


    weiter....


    http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/…50072197&col=968705923364

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]


    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/319155.htm


    London Gold Fixing ritual to end


    By: Tim Wood


    Posted: '29-APR-04 11:52' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    NEW YORK (Mineweb.com) -- As expected, the London Gold Fixing has announced that it will in future rotate the chairmanship of the arrangement and end a tradition of meeting in person to set bellwether gold prices twice a day.


    Starting in May, each member bank will assume the chairmanship of the fixing for a one year period starting with ScotiaBank division ScotiaMocatta.


    "As of the same date, the Fixing will take place by telephone and the five member firms will no longer meet face-to-face as has previously been the case. As part of this change, it is intended that a web-based commentary of the Fixing will be introduced later this year", the Fixing said in a statement.


    The decision by N.M. Rothschild & Sons to quit the gold business leaves a vacancy at the Fixing. Ongoing members are Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Société Generale.


    Simon Weeks is the chairman-elect of the London Gold Fixing.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    April 29 - Gold $386.70 up $1.20 - Silver $5.80 down 7 cents


    Massive Panic Selling Sets Up Sharp Gold, Silver Price Recovery


    Zitat

    "Whoever has or is given the authority to create credit has the authority to extract wealth from the economy by that same mechanism." Vladimir Nuri, Fractional Reserve Banking as Economic Parasitism


    Zitat

    "The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debts." Henry Ford


    If today wasn’t rough enough, an electrical boom of some sort knocked out my commentary for the day, so here we go again.


    Yesterday’s savage and orchestrated assault on the precious metals by The Gold Cartel was felt all over the investment world. However, many of those investors in the Asian world were asleep. When they awoke, many of them panicked and began to dump their positions. The selling continued into the Comex opening. At one point last evening/this early morning, gold was down another $7+ and silver dropped another 32 cents lower.


    Gold and silver recovered somewhat from those drastic levels and then moved higher for most of the session. Trading was extremely choppy. Gold closed higher as the market appears to be very short, however, silver continued to liquidate. As evidence of this, the gold open interest went up 1213 contracts to 247,717, while the silver open interest fell 3639 contracts to 102,877 (see Dan Norcini below for analysis).


    How much evidence of massive gold/silver market intervention does anyone need to realize the mainstream central banking world is petrified of sharply rising precious metals prices at this time, or any time? Weeks ago there was the planted, unsigned FT story and repetitive newspaper commentary of French and German central bank gold sales. Who can forget the postponement of the PPI report on some flimsy excuse to keep the true inflation picture from the US public? Yesterday, a story surfaced about the Chinese pulling back on lending. The Gold Cartel let into gold and silver, realizing they could spook the hedge funds, which they did. Today, the Chinese debunked the story. This is not an isolated occurrence. Remember when a troubled US stock market needed a lift with gold on a roll and a story was floated that Osama bin Laden’s number two man was surrounded in the Afghan mountains. It turned out to be bogus also. What a sick crew we have manipulating these markets! The Chinese denial:


    BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - China's banking regulator and central bank denied on Thursday reports that they had issued a ban on new lending. "We have never asked them (banks) to stop making loans. We have never issued any document, internal or open," a spokesman for the China Banking Regulatory Commission said.


    The spokesman had been asked about Hong Kong media reports saying China's "Big Four" state banks had received an official directive to suspend new loans until May 1. Smaller commercial banks had also reportedly halted new lending in anticipation of a tighter loan policy from the government.


    A People's Bank of China spokesman also said it had not issued such an order. "We have never made a such a requirement. We have absolutely have not done that," the spokesman said. –END-


    Meanwhile, the news which should affect the price of gold continues to become more bullish, which is probably why The Gold Cartel has orchestrated this massive assault on the precious metals.


    The economic news continues to reveal far greater inflation than previously acknowledged (no surprise to Café members though):


    http://www.thestreet.com


    08:34 GDP deflator, ECI might add to inflation concerns;
    Taken together, the GDP and deflator numbers show that market expectations for nominal GDP were close to the market consensus. Yet the breakdown between real growth and inflation will be a disappointment, as real growth was 4.2% vs the expected 5%, and the deflator rose 2.5% instead of the expected 2.0%. Furthermore, the Employment Cost Index rose 1.1% in Q1, stronger than the 0.9% consensus and the 0.8% increase in Q4. Both of these reports will exacerbate the market's fears of inflation and Fed rate hikes. –END-


    Ten more dead US soldier in Iraq today. What a nightmare, one which has no end in sight. The economic and geopolitical ramifications of this blunder will have profound effects on US financial markets in the months to come. How can they not?


    The US leaders who got us into this continue to talk of a few rebels and minor skirmishes, but is that all it is? (See Appendix for Lawrence of Arabia comments on this sort of thing many years ago). How can so few kill so many of us? Alarm bells are quietly going off all over the place. RETIRED ARMY GENERAL WILLIAM ODOM, directed the National Security Agency under former President Reagan, and served on Carter's National Security Council staff, is urging an IMMEDIATE PULL-OUT FROM IRAQ. His words:


    It would be delusional, asserts Gen. Odom, to "stay the course" in Iraq; keeping troops in would increase hatred of the U.S., likely threatening to destabilize the region and jeopardizing international relations as the U.S. becomes more isolated.


    The U.S. should withdraw troops from Iraq as rapidly as possible, he says, for the sake of American security and economic interests.


    "We have failed," he declares.


    -END-


    If all of those items were not bullish enough, the dollar was hit hard today and fell to 90.80, down .63, while the euro rose sharply to 119.68, up 1.47, moving solidly back above its 200-day moving average.


    Based on all the news, the US stock and bond markets are doing just what they should be doing under the circumstances. The DOW closed down 70 to 10,272 even after one of its patented Hail Mary rallies. The DOG was smashed again, down 31 to 1959. The US bond market continues to reel as investors react to increasing awareness of US inflation and to the ramifications of US fiscal and Fed policies. The June 30-year closed at 106 21/32, down 22/32.


    Growing inflation numbers are rightfully scaring the fixed income world. But, there is no inflation, the June bond chart


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/64


    This week has been a brutal one for the gold/silver investor world. Certainly, it was not forecasted in my commentary, but understanding the heinous Gold Cartel as I do, nothing surprises me anymore. They will do whatever it takes to protect their interests and that includes lying, cheating and stealing. They are very consistent.


    Many in our camp believed The Gold Cartel was setting up a price trashing the past few weeks because of the gold related news items hitting the mainstream press. Few of us thought they would take it this far. More and more it appears they needed to take out $390 gold to turn more specs short. This last breakdown has demoralized millions of gold/silver investors. Gold and silver took out their last vestiges of technical support. Gold had held $390 on a closing basis so often, most of us thought it would do so again. The last two days shook up confident long-term bulls who are now not so sure of themselves anymore.


    No change the way I see it. This too shall pass. This is why it is so important to keep in mind we are dealing with a rigged market. It has been this way for many years. What is changing is the crooks are running out of physical gold to continue to play their scheme. They still have enough firepower and paper market capability to win battles, but they are on their way to losing the war. I am surprised they pulled this one off to this extent, but will be more surprised if gold and silver don’t turn right around and go right back up in the weeks to come. On that note, the Comex floor gives an immediate V-bottom rebound a zero possibility. Not one person down there believes this will occur. NOT ONE!


    Silver finally filled its breakaway gap right below $5.80.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    Open interest data confirms large scale short selling


    Thursday, April 29, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $12.32, PM $15.26, with world gold at $383.40 and $377.65. Enormous: far above legal import point. In fact the latter is the highest I can remember seeing. It was no doubt distorted by the 3 hour V-shaped nose dive with world gold greeted the approach of the NY opening: on the other hand, it is basis Bombay: Madras, based on Reuters data, was $2.10 higher.


    An interesting insight into India’s gold appetite appeared yesterday in the "Times of India" newspaper. Two parliamentary candidates for a particular constituency disclosed their financial data. One man and his wife reported owning 71 ozs of gold jewelry; the other couple and their children owned 497 ozs. Only the latter could be described as actually rich. See


    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/645209.cms .


    Japan was closed today. The Shanghai Gold Exchange did report higher premiums over world gold, but only by less than $1, and on low volume. Since world gold was down over $13, this was a feeble response. However, given the financial news from China, perhaps it was understandable – maybe even lending some credibility to this far from proven source.


    Yesterday in NY was amongst the most alarming gold has seen in some years. Mitsui-Sydney responded sensibly:


    Zitat

    "…the metals took a pasting overnight…(seeing) gold break through the 200 day moving average &…closing on the lows with knowledge that Tocom is closed for the start of Golden week, so the normal buying support wont be around. There has been good physical demand on the way down, but not enough to narrow the exit door for the speculators. The question now is, are we just seeing long liquidation or are shorts being established? Technically gold looks like it’s on its knees…However what these volatile markets have taught me of late, as when it looks terrible, buy it."


    UBS is also up beat:


    Zitat

    "Metals were hit by wide-spread speculative selling yesterday after the Chinese credit control scare… weakness of FX carry-trades also indicates that there is probably an interest rate element to the sell-off in metals…Our commodities and mining equity analysts believe… the move lower represents a buying opportunity"


    adding, quite reasonably:


    Zitat

    "Although there is no fundamental reason why slowing demand for base metals from China should affect gold, liquidation of basket products have kept gold on the back foot. We are looking for opportunities to buy gold retain our one-month forecast of $390/oz and $410 in three months"


    Perhaps the calmness of these dealer commentators reflects trading desk assessments of the type of selling seen yesterday. This morning’s open interest and volume data appear to validate this view: Open interest actually rose 1,213 contracts (to 247,717) on a heavier than estimated 103,393 lot volume. Since there must have been considerable stop loss liquidation on such a big and technically significant fall, the implication was that there was a lot of fresh short selling. At the expense of repeating oneself, with these kind of physical premiums this is not wise.


    JB

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The WSJ reports: U.S. trucking co's haul their highest prices in years -- WSJ : The WSJ reports many trucking co's are imposing their steepest price increases in years spurred by a strengthening economy and rising diesel-fuel prices. For example, Schneider National says customer demand exceeds its supply of 14,000 tractors and 40,000 trailers by as much as 10%.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $22.8 Billion in repos including another permanent Open Market Operation. Therepo pool actually fell to $40.68 Billion due to a very large expiration.


    The pool's moving average continues up, signaling a steady increase in DOW support and the DOW's 30-day ma is also trending back up towards its linear track to 11,750 by Labor Day 2004.


    With gold gyrating today, having touched $377 for a time, we much keep in mind that the dollar was tracking at 87 in past weeks and now is up over 91. Thus, gold ought to be down in absolute terms. This is the hard thing to appreciate when considering the DIVG.


    In extremis, if the dollar index doubled to 180 gold would "plunge" to ONLY $192 per ounce! The issue most overlooked is that the "depressed gold price" actually buys the same amount of goods and services so nothing will have changed with gold at $192.


    Last night's DIVG was 348.79, about where it has been (350) during this latest Fed-engineered down phase. The DIVG 200-day ma is still tracking up and THAT'S the most important issue to keep one's eye on. The DIVG 200-day ma is tracking up because the gold cartel has been forced to ordain it. Moreover, if the cartel were engaged in a simple trick to lure in unsuspecting gold bugs they would have set up a quick spike as they have in the past. This time it has been a steady four-month rise in the DIVG, which is the absolute value of gold expressed in terms of the major currencies.


    A separate issue of concern are the gold share jitters as they can be shorted by the big Wall Street houses. Jim Sinclair has opined on this topic in the past urging holders to eliminate margin accounts so as to prevent others from shorting the very sector an investor wishes to protect. Indeed, some of the Fed's primary dealers downgraded Gold Corp last week. Did they have advance warning about the Fed's current gold attack? Draw your own conclusions.


    Tonight's DIVG will tell a tale if this is a serious Fed policy change or just a brief counter-attack.


    Mike


    Houston’s Dan Norcini:


    Hey Bill:

    Volume looks pretty strong in gold today. Yesterday's was massive; over 100,000. Looks like we might come in somewhere near 75,000- 80,000 today when the count is finished. Will have to wait to the sesson's end to know for sure.


    Open interest was another shocker in gold. It went up again! This is simply amazing.It would not surprise me a bit to learn that the goon squad, who clocked it yesterday with those big offers to get the ball rolling to the downside, covered in the mid 380's leaving the new fund and small spec shorts to take their place. I am expecting another sizeable reduction in COT's short position with the release of tomorrow's Commitments Data. Sadly, it will not contain what happened on Wednesday or today since the data is only inclusive thru Tuesday.


    Either way, all the longs who bailed yesterday were replaced by new ones as well as new shorts, a lot of whom sold gold down near 384-386. As of the close today - they are sitting on losing postions (Smile here). The guys who sold the 377 level early today in London must be reeling by now. The move up from 380 during the first hour after the GDP was on strong volume. No doubt there was panic buying by those newcomers. Nice to see some fear and panic grip the other side for a change.


    We have a nice bullish hammer formation on the daily charts with today's action on heavy volume which adds some credibility to the thought that we might be sold out for the time being. We will need to see a confirmation of that however as we will want to see if the market will hold above today's low. A successful retest of that level and a bounce back away from it, should do the trick.


    About time our side gets some sort of moral victory.


    check with you later, Dan

    Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio on the big picture:


    Good morning, Bill:


    Well, this was the day we've been waiting for, I think. You recall my research that showed that each double-digit (10% or greater) decline in the gold price back in the late 70s gold bull resulted in AT LEAST a 27% increase in the price of gold over the following months. No exceptions. In fact, most of the increases were far greater.


    So, today was the day. From the most recent peak on the first of this month at $427.25 (London fix), we've now fallen 10.41% to this morning's London fix of 382.75. If we get only the minimum increase from the 70s pattern, that takes gold to $486.09. Naturally, we know the price will likely go much higher than that in the months following the election. But for now, if we're near the bottom, we're headed to nearly five hundred bucks—minimum.


    It's become clear to me that the gold crowd needs to begin thinking of these cycles in terms of several months rather than paying so much attention to the daily or even the hourly price fluctuations. Manipulations or not, big runups are followed by relatively big corrections, and I have the feeling that we'd better get used to more, rather than less, volatility. We need to remember, as I've shown from other research of the late 70s market, that volatility is, in the end, our greatest ally, for in a secular bull market it portends much higher prices ahead.


    Don't stop laying it all on the table, Bill. Sooner or later, "the fundamental things apply... as time goes by."


    Trying to hang on for the requisite eight seconds,


    Derek


    The view from Australia:


    All the wheels fell off the markets last night - all at the same time. Stocks and bonds, commodities, the euro and the major currencies, gold, silver, palladium, platinum - all were given a savage beating by "investors''. Markets are said to run on two emotions, fear and greed, and it was the former that reigned last night, but why? If you listen to the talking heads on CNBC you'd have to think that the US is booming. The Q1 earnings reports have been almost universally above expectations, Big Al tells us the inflation genie is still firmly stoppered in its bottle, the jobs picture is a beauty, and even Japan is going gangbusters. Surely a piddling 25 bp rate hike couldn't do much harm to such a robust recovery. So what's all the panic about?


    The Chinese premier announced that changes to financing business expenditure will be introduced to put a damper on a dangerously overheated economy. Sounds like a wise move to me, and one that should have been applauded by the markets. A lot of commentators have been saying that China's economy is about to implode because of unrestrained credit growth and rising inflation. Making a pre-emptive strike against mounting pressures might stave off disaster and mean that China can grow at a sustainable rate for the foreseeable future, which is to everyone's advantage - especially Japan's which relies heavily on exports to the Middle Kingdom. But base metals were hammered, with copper and nickel suffering particularly badly. Nickel has now fallen 40% since hitting a multi-year high in January.


    While the fundamentals for precious metals have been at their best in decades, the funds and the major trading banks took the opportunity to trash gold and silver along with just about everything else. As long as Big Al and the Fed keep mouthing their ludicrous assertions that inflation is low and not a problem, gold and silver will have to be kept in check. It's the accepted mantra that gold is a barometer of impending inflation, so Al and the boys would look pretty damn silly if they said there's no inflation while gold was soaring. The fly in their increasingly sticky oinment on this scam is that the physical demand from China, India, and the Middle East is very strong, so it's taking increasing quantities of Fed gold dumped on the market to keep the price down. Someday soon they'll run out, and then...........................If you want to get the lowdown on precious metals and how we are still in a bull market despite all the shenanigans, drop Bill Murphy a line at LePatron@leMetropolecafe.com and get a free two week trial of his daily newsletter on gold and the markets. And yes, I know I said last week that it was a great time to buy gold and gold shares, and it still is. There is really no way of knowing when the bottom of this brutal correction will be reached, but make no mistake, this is just a correction in a long, long bull market. Buying now will ensure you don't miss the boat when the reversal comes. And that is likely to be a sudden and very strong reversal.


    If you accept the mainstream view that the US is undergoing a sustained and strong economic boom, ask yourself a couple of questions:- if tomorrow's GDP figure comes in at around 5% or more for the 1st quarter as expected, and consumers' balance sheets are "in good shape" as Big Al said a few weeks ago, then why are rates at a pitiful 1%, and why are personal bankruptcies at an all time high? Why is Greenspan in no hurry to raise rates as he should? And IF he does (not a foregone conclusion by any means) what will happen to that bankruptcy rate then? If, for arguments sake, you are paying 4% on your mortgage, and rates were to rise by a modest 1% over 12 months, your interest bill would rise by 25%! If you're in debt up to your eyeballs, and your wages haven't risen - and they're unlikely to while there is high unemployment and excess business capacity - how will you be able to pay such an impost?


    The answer is you won't, and Greenspan knows it. And deep, deep, deep down, the markets know it too. That's why there was mayhem on Wall Street last night, and it's my bet that the bear market rally is just about over. The spectre of the Iraqi quagmire is looming ever larger, and it seems only Bush and Blair have any confidence in a successful conclusion. Mobs of British and American ex-diplomats have written to their respective leaders saying their policies on Iraq and Palestine will lead to disaster, and Kofi Annan and special envoy to the UN Brahimi have said that the US actions in Fallujah will lead to very serious ramifications. All that's needed now is a revolution in Saudi Arabia and we'll see oil at $90 a barrel. Notice how there's been major civil disturbances in Syria, Jordan, and Thailand in the past few days, all the work of Islamic fundamentalists. That's just a small measure of how much hatred is being directed at the US and its allies, and how many more moderate Muslims are going over to the fundamentalists' camp.


    None of this does anything but bode badly for the American budget deficit which may actually reach $700 billion this year (after the social security fund has been raided to keep the 'frontline' number within the bounds of decency) and with the greenback climbing, be it temporarily, the current account deficit is also likely to keep growing. More debt to add the ocean in which America swims.


    One day, all the effort of fighting the tide will become too much. You can guess what will happen next.


    The Idle Fellow.


    Some sound technical analysis follows which should be very useful:


    Dear Bill,

    At the risk of embarrassing myself on the subject of Technical Analysis, when you have the greats in the business are reading your work, just the same, I thought I would enclose a chart of the XAU that I sent to clients during one of the many corrections, we have had along the way. This chart shows the correction in early 2003. Many people were frightened and some called me a kook, but Gold and the XAU recovered and went on to new highs, as we all know.


    This massive accumulation bottom, called a head and shoulder pattern, is why I have invested in gold, and the neckline was give or take around 80 with some spikes a little higher, which we all know now, we broke out from there.


    As I have told you in the past I started in the brokerage business in 1980 and in the late summer of 1982 when the Dow broke 1000, I went to all my clients and stated that the stock market landscape had changed and we made a new all time ever new high.


    Armed with charts and graphs I took from the best of the day (stole them I guess as I was learning, still am) and Mr. Yale Hirsch's chart famous long term chart, but much to my surprise few bought. Soon after when the Dow was at 1500 investors started to put their toes in the water. The Dow promptly corrected back to the neckline and investors bailed then it was ready to start the famous Bull Market.


    I view this market in much the same way. You break resistance, like a plane going through the sound barrier with a bang, and then you get the hush of no resistance. Like the Dow in 1980 and the XAU at 80ish they were powerful breakouts. We have pulled back to powerful support. Will it hold, I think it will given the fundamentals behind the initial move, but then as you have stated, these guys are powerful. This is not a short term prediction, but longer term view, what has changed except the shares prices and as Mr. Hamilton stated last week (assuming nothing changed in his work) Gold Shares and Gold are well priced at these levels. Someone sold 3M in 1982 and missed a bull market that lasted along time. Investors today could be selling the Gold at bargain prices today, when we look in the rearview mirror 5 years from now.


    This move is a blow no doubt especially, when I was already to send some unrealized gains on a new stereo, but the longer term still could hold a lot of promise for the long term Gold Bull.


    Kindest Regards


    John C. Newell - Investment Advisor
    First Associates Investments Limited
    Bentall V, 5th Floor, 550 Burrard St.
    Vancouver, BC. V6C-2B5
    T:604-640-0318
    http: http://www. firstassociates.com


    Then from my brother Tim:


    Brother Bill, Gold took out its one year uptrend line at 395 and the breakdown was confirmed when it took out the double bottom at 390. The breakdown of the one year uptrend channel and the double top at 430 gives gold a price objective of 353-358. This price objective coincides with the three year uptrend line at 355.


    The good news is gold showed hints of a reversal today. Gold above 390, especially if it happens quickly, would indicate a sold out market. Gold above 400 would indicate a complete reversal with the possibility of taking out 430 quickly. Today's 'reversal' brings us to the moment of truth. If gold starts drifting back to today’s lows, we have
    problems. If gold works its way higher from today’s close, we have the potential for a massive rally. I haven't gotten the usual angry phone calls from several old girlfriends who are long gold stocks and have a knack for calling me at the bottom, but my guess is gold is sold out and will start working its way higher from here. Brother Tim


    Tim Murphy
    Swiss America Trading Corp
    800-289-2646 x1019
    trmurphy@swissamerica.com


    More evidence gold supply is on the wane even as gold demand is rising:


    Shine taken off AngloGold Ashanti results April 29, 2004


    London - The newly merged South African gold giant AngloGold Ashanti reported Thursday a fall in quarterly profits at its core AngloGold business as weaker production offset a strong gold price….


    The company said gold production fell by 11 percent to 1.235 million ounces because of a slow production start to the first quarter in South Africa and marked decreases in output at the Geita, Morila and Cerro Vanguardia mines. –END-


    A Heads Up from Sargendra:


    Did you happen to notice the following:


    5 APR – HUI down 7 points


    then trades sideways for the next 4 days at 230.


    Then down 15 points on 13 APR


    then trades sideways for the next 4 days at 210.


    Then down 14 points on 20 APR


    then trades sideways for the next 5 day at 195.


    Then down 16 points on 28 APR.


    What happens next? Sideways for another 3 days then down another 15 points??


    This is called systematic bait-and-clobber. Take the market down, let the people think it’s OK to jump back in the pool with 4 days of sideways "bottom-like" trading, then toss another shark in the pool.


    Then do it again. Then do it again. . .


    Any bets they do it again next week?


    This is what "ROLLO TAPE" (aka Richard Wyckoff) described in his 1910 book called "Studies In Tape Reading." This is known as a CAMPAIGN. Yes he used those exact words. NEM has gone from 47 to 37. Campaigns on Fall Street are usually a minimum $10 move. It isn’t worth it to the big-money boys to play a 1 or 2 dollar move. It’s 10 or nothing.


    This is a professional "mark-down" according to ROLLO TAPE. It isn’t free-market trading. Well, maybe it is. If you have enough money to do this, then I guess you are free to do whatever you want with the market.


    It will be over soon. They are almost done with this campaign. Couple more days to go. . .


    Sheesh.


    The gold shares were mostly on the plus side after their horrendous beating of late.


    The XAU rose .86 to 82.06, while the HUI gained 2.10 to 178.79. Both closed well off their highs after coming out of the gait strongly. The notable exception was Golden Star Resources, which was battered falling to $4.44, down 29 cents. Most of the selling was due to Golden Star falling below $5, which means it is not marginable at many major Wall Street firms anymore. This is my number one holding and many Café members have picked it up along the way. One is the astute Eric Hommelberg who was kind enough to put out the following:


    Hi Bill,


    For those gold investors who are panicking, maybe this review of the July 2002 sell-off will help.


    I think this example of Golden Star says it all !


    Golden Star broke its 200 dma support (like so many others) of $5.31 and fell like a stone to less than $4.60 . Investors fear that the current bull-run in Gold shares is over ! Panic selling is the tune of the day !


    Just take a look at this chart of Golden Star below, does it look familiar ?


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH1.gif]


    What do we see ? Well. Golden Star breaking its 200 dma and crashing like hell !


    Like I said, panic selling, but does a break of the 200 dma automatically means the end of a bull-market ? Well, panicking investors do think so, I don’t ! Why not ? Well, because the fundamentals simply tell us otherwise (CA deficit, $ decline, negative interest rates, decreasing gold supply, increase of investor demand etc..). Again, take a look at the chart above. This is Golden Star crashing through it’s 200 dma ! End of Bull run? This was July 2002. Many investors threw in the towel because they didn’t believe in the Gold bull anymore. Yes, in July 2002 investors were so desperate that they sold Golden Star at 73 cents ! (see chart below)


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH2.gif]

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    Teil II


    This crash was painful for many indeed but those brave investors who simply had the courage to buy during these extremely oversold conditions had a buy of a life time. Don’t believe me ? Well, just take a look at the chart below, it will tell you exactly what happened next !


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH3.gif]


    So what happened ? Golden Star shares doubled in just 6 weeks ! Why ? Simple ! The Gold Bull hadn’t ended yet and just shook out all weak hands before resuming its upward trend !


    Today we see a very similar pattern as in July 2002. Golden Star crashing through its 200 dma and lots of panicking investors who wants to get out because they fear that the bull-run in gold is over, ! Déjà vu again ! Just take a look at GSS today :


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH4.gif]


    As I said, a very similar pattern as we saw in July 2002 !


    So the question remains, is the current bull run in Gold over yet ? Or has it hardly begun ?


    Fundamentals (CA deficit, $ decline, negative real interest rates, declining gold supply, increase of investor demand etc..) tell us that this bull market in gold is very well alive !


    Therefore I would suggest that it isn’t very likely that this extreme oversold condition in Gold shares is going to hold much longer. If the July 2002 pattern repeats itself, we could witness a spectacular run in Gold shares within the next two month. Again, those brave investors who had the courage to invest in Golden Star at 73 cents when everyone else was panicking were rewarded tremendously ! Now’s your chance to do the same !


    Best,


    Eric


    The gold shares selling has been extraordinary. We should have seen the worst of it.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    Appendix


    The following was written by Lawrence of Arabia circa 1919 and appeared in The Times in London. It is about the British Occupation of Iraq (then called Mesopotamia) after WW I.


    Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!


    This comment by Lawrence, presumably about 1919, is truly spectacular, given current events...


    A Report on Mesopotamia by T.E. Lawrence


    Sunday Times


    Mr. Lawrence, whose organization and direction of the Hedjaz against the Turks was one of the outstanding romances of the war, has written this article at our request in order that the public may be fully informed of our Mesopotamian commitments.


    The people of England have been led in Mesopotamia into a trap from which it will be hard to escape with dignity and honour. They have been tricked into it by a steady withholding of information. The Baghdad communiques are belated, insincere, incomplete. Things have been far worse than we have been told, our administration more bloody and inefficient than the public knows. It is a disgrace to our imperial record, and may soon be too inflamed for any ordinary cure. We are to-day not far from a disaster. The sins of commission are those of the British civil authorities in Mesopotamia (especially of three 'colonels') who were given a free hand by London. They are controlled from no Department of State, but from the empty space which divides the Foreign Office from te India Office. They availed themselves of the necessary discretion of war-time to carry over their dangerous independence into times of peace. They contest every suggestion of real self-government sent them from home. A recent proclamation about autonomy circulated with unction from Baghdad was drafted and published out there in a hurry, to forestall a more liberal statement in preparation in London, 'Self-determination papers' favourable to England were extorted in Mesopotamia in 1919 by official pressure, by aeroplane demonstrations, by deportations to India. The Cabinet cannot disclaim all responsibility. They receive little more news than the public: they should have insisted on more, and better. They have sent draft after draft of reinforcements, without enquiry. When conditions became too bad to endure longer, they decided to send out as High commissioner the original author of the present system, with a conciliatory message to the Arabs that his heart and policy have completely changed.


    Yet our published policy has not changed, and does not need changing. It is that there has been a deplorable contrast between our profession and our practice. We said we went to Mesopotamia to defeat Turkey. We said we stayed to deliver the Arabs from the oppression of the Turkish Government, and to make available for the world its resources of corn and oil. We spent nearly a million men and nearly a thousand million of money to these ends. This year we are spending ninety-two thousand men and fifty millions of money on the same objects. Our government is worse than the old Turkish system. They kept fourteen thousand local conscripts embodied, and killed a yearly average of two hundred Arabs in maintaining peace. We keep ninety thousand men, with aeroplanes, armoured cars, gunboats, and armoured trains. We have killed about ten thousand Arabs in this rising this summer. We cannot hope to maintain such an average: it is a poor country, sparsely peopled; but Abd el Hamid would applaud his masters, if he saw us working. We are told the object of the rising was political, we are not told what the local people want. It may be what the Cabinet has promised them. A Minister in the House of Lords said that we must have so many troops because the local people will not enlist.


    On Friday the Government announced the death of some local levies defending their British officers, and say that the services of these men have not yet been sufficiently recognized because they are too few (adding the characteristic Baghdad touch that they are men of bad character). There are seven thousand of them, just half the old Turkish force of occupation. Properly officered and distributed, they would relieve half our army there. Cromer controlled Egypt's six million people with five thousand British troops; Colonel Wilson fails to control Mesopotamia's three million people with ninety thousand troops. We have not reached the limit of our military commitments. Four weeks ago the staff in Mesopotamia drew up a memorandum asking for four more divisions. I believe it was forwarded to the War Office, which has now sent three brigades from India. If the North-West Frontier cannot be further denuded, where is the balance to come from? Meanwhile, our unfortunate troops, Indian and British, under hard conditions of climate and supply, are policing an immense area, paying dearly every day in lives for the willfully wrong policy of the civil administration in Baghdad. General Dyer was relieved of his command in India for a much smaller error, but the responsibility in this case is not on the Army, which has acted only at the request of the civil authorities. The War Office has made every effort to reduce our forces, but the decisions of the Cabinet have been against them. The Government in Baghdad have been hanging Arabs in that town for political offences, which they call rebellion. The Arabs are not at war with us. Are these illegal executions to provoke the Arabs to reprisals on the three hundred British prisoners they hold? And, if so, is it that their punishment may be more severe, or is it to persuade our other troops to fight to the last? We say we are in Mesopotamia to develop it for the benefit of the world. All experts say that the labour supply is the ruling factor in its development. How far will the killing of ten thousand villagers and townspeople this summer hinder the production of wheat, cotton, and oil? How long will we permit millions of pounds, thousands of Imperial troops, and tens of thousands of Arabs to be sacrificed on behalf of colonial administration which can benefit nobody but its administrators?


    -END-

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