Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Aus dem Elliott-Forum - Kann das mal jemand erklären ? Hat dies, was Emerald hier anspricht, tatsächlich eine solche Indiz-Wirkung ?


    Seltsam! Obwohl Puts ausstehend für zehntausenden von Goldminen-Aktien[ Börse & Wirtschaft: Elliott-Wellen-Forum ]
    Geschrieben von Emerald am 29. April 2004 15:17:40:



    wurde bis jetzt, 15 Minuten vor Opening, keine einzige Aktie angedient.



    Entweder schlafen die Put-Käufer in Amerika oder dann werden die Minen-Aktien
    schnurstracks wieder hochlaufen.


    Ich bin am Einkaufen am Opening, weil es unverantwortlich wäre solche
    Gelegenheiten zu verpassen.


    Emerald.



    PS:
    Immer guter Dinge auch wenn's mal kräftig rumpelt in der Karton-Schachtel!


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Golden Globes & Drama Queens
    John Mackenzie
    jrmfl@adelphia.net
    April 29, 2004


    I tend to run, not walk, when the operatic din of Gold's Advisors' begins to crescendo. At times, some of the well-intentioned Gold Bull Advisors begin an intensely dramatic stampede towards the plateau, only to fall off the high bluff along with their communal herds.


    Rather than play the "Game," they are "Played."


    Let's be honest, brutally honest about what will break the paper markets control.

    It is very simple, Richard Russell and many of the sharper advisors suggest it daily. I tell my community to purchase the metal prior to buying a single share of gold mining equities.


    Buy the physical metal, the mining equities are paper promises and subject to the whims of the market and its interventionist policy. Purchase honest money!
    Any rationale individual comprehends what Gold represents, there's little need for drama and drama queens, but intelligent and honest discourse about what potential threats abound.


    If we in the Gold Community agree to agree that Gold represents a very real threat to the Fiat Currency Regime, then we should expect to be played by these masters of global banking.


    At present, here are my observations:


    The broad market internals are now very similar to September / October of 1987
    .
    SOX either gets it in gear here and now or the Nasdaq follows through to the downside
    .
    XAU leading DOW is not bullish for broad markets... not at all, this is very rare
    .
    HUI projecting 118 (+/- 7.5) this summer, July at latest
    .
    HGX appears to be breaking down quickly, a bounce is due, but it should begin a steep decline again soon
    .
    FOMC has had its foot to the floor on the Temporary Open Market Operations. They are clearly concerned and we will have to watch and see just how aggressive the Fed becomes
    .
    Gold, the metal will lag the miners on the downside, targets are from 272 to 376, with 368, 354, 342, 330, 308 my downside targets open, with 342 to 368 probable at this point, but it's early still, if we breach 376 this week, I would suggest a lowering of implied range is open
    .
    The Dollar can rally to an extreme high, 92/94 to 104 is now open
    .
    2004/2005 will see Gold increase in price to levels I would rather not predict, but well north
    of the previous high. It will merely "begin" to approach its VALUE. I fully expect the exact opposite in the bottoming process... it will not be a process, but an EVENT
    We will need to be observant of the Dollar, Bonds and Asia. The Federal Reserve is going to enter its own version of "panic" later this summer as the deflationary forces begin to take hold. They will do what they have always done: intervene, expand credit and monetize debt.


    Once the Fed begins to hyper-inflate we can rest assured gold will be heading far higher. We will need to remain open to several potential outcomes for mining equities, bull and bear.


    (GANZ GENAU SO VERHÄLT ES SICH WOHL ! - meint Spieler )


    April 29, 2004
    John Mackenzie
    jrmfl@adelphia.net

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Ha,ha, Google soll beim IPO mit 25 - 35 Milliarden Marktkapitalisierung bewertet werden. Das bei einem Jahresumsatz 2003 von etwa 900 Millionen $ und etwas über 100 Millionen Gewinn. Mitarbeiterzahl 2000.


    Dieses Schnäppchen sollte man sich doch nicht entgehen lassen. Ich sag nur: zeichnen. Am besten das überbewertete Gold dafür raushauen.
    Hoffentlich werd ich auch berücksichtigt. Der Weg zum Millionär kann so leicht sein.


    :D :D :D

    http://205.232.90.194/editorials/appel/appel043004.html


    (..)
    Earlier, during the great gold and commodities Bull Markets of the 1970's, there were numerous brief and a few extended price collapses that tested the mettle of those participants who were aligned with the gold bull. The most chilling set-back began from the peak at $200 on January 1, 1975, the day that gold again became legal for Americans to own. It terminated a year and a half later in the summer of 1976, when gold bottomed at $103. It was a grueling, nerve-wrenching period, but it was followed by gold's march to its ultimate $875 peak in February, 1980. Each time that the bears temporarily gained the upper hand, and prices sharply fell, it similarly sent chills and tremors through the hearts of the "gold bug" investors of that era. However, in the end, massive profits accrued to those who stayed the course and rode the Bull Markets to or near their conclusions.


    ---> Das haben wir ja gemeinsam oben schon festgestellt: Siehe bognairs tolle Charts

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://62.146.24.165/grafik/godmodetop.gif]


    29.04. 22:30
    Zinsängste lähmen US-Markt
    (©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)



    Die Furcht vor steigendem Zinsen und allmählich erwachende Inflationsängste lähmten den US-Aktienmarkt heute erneut. Das Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im letzten Quartal war mit 4,2 Prozent unterhalb der Erwartungen geblieben. Dagegen kletterte etwa die Arbeitskosten um deutliche 1,1 Prozent, was die meisten Ökonomen überrascht hatte. Einige enttäuschende Unternehmensdaten vom Vortag belasteten heute vor allem wieder den Hightech-Sektor.


    Der Dow Jones Index tauchte heute im Handelsverlauf bis auf 10.219 Punkte ab, bis er sich in den letzten Stunden wieder etwas erholte und schließlich mit einem Abschlag von 0,68 Prozent bei 10.272 Zählern zum Stehen kam. Der breitere S&P 500 verlor 0,76 Prozent auf 1113 Zähler, der Nasdaq Index fiel um 1,55 Prozent auf 1958 Stellen.


    Unter Druck kamen vor allem Chiptitel nach einer Abstufung des Sektors durch American Technology Research und dem gestrigen enttäuschenden Ausblick von LSI Logic. Intel gaben heute 0,83 Prozent auf 26,13 Dollar ab, Applied Material verloren 2,69 Prozent auf 2,69 Prozent auf Dollar, LSI Logic selbst rutschten um 10,1 Prozent nach unten auf 7,57 Dollar. Die Titel von Nokia verbilligten sich um 2,26 Prozent auf 14,27 Dollar, nachdem ein Marktforscher den sinkenden Marktanteil der Finnen im Handy-Geschäft dokumentiert hatte.


    Der Euro legte heute wieder um 1,15 Prozent auf 1,15 Dollar zu. Die Rendite 10jähriger Staatsanleihen stieg von 4,54 auf 4,5 Prozent. Juni-Rohöl verlor an der New York Mercantile Exchange 15 Cents auf 37,31 Dollar; der Gold-Juni-Future kletterte 1,20 auf 387,10 Dollar.

    @ Option


    Genau: Ich erinnere an den Bericht von ein paar Jahrem bei RTL Explosiv wo von einer Angestellten von Popnet berichtet wurde, die durch zeichnen der Aktien ihres Unternehmens richtig reich geworden ist.


    Kann ich nur empfehlen. Immerhin ist der aktuelle Kurs von Popnet dem Wert des Unternehmens angepaßt, nämlich....


    NULL


    Von daher ist Google natürlich sehr empfehlenswert. Immerhin ist Google die einzige Suchmaschine im riesigen Internet und sogar Yahoo hat sich von Ihr als Partner getrennt um eigene Wege zu gehen.


    Außerdem ist Google sehr beliebt bei Spamern, die es immer wieder schaffen, daß bei einfachen Suchaufträgen, die das kleine, unscheinbare Wort "kaufen" enthalten, die ersten Trefferseiten gleich in die Tonne gekloppt werden können.


    Also ein klares Strong Buy Google. Ups, mein Englisch ist nicht so gut, es muß wohl heißen:


    Good by Google

    Handelt es sich bei dieser Information um einen Witz, oder um eine weitere "Manipulation" und "Irreführung" der Anleger?


    Hätte da mal eine Frage


    Vor kurzer Zeit erst soll die Schweizerische Kreditanstalt "Kredit Swiss" eine Bilanz vorgelegt haben, bei der total überraschend ca. "4.5 Milliarden Gewinne" ausgewiesen worden seien. Die Aktienpreise sollen danach hochgerannt sein. Ist ja auch kein Wunder, wenn unerhofft solche Riesen-Gewinne von dieser Schweizer Bank publiziert werden. Soll in allen Zeitungen, und im Fernsehen gross aufgemacht veröffentlicht worden sein.


    Einige Zeit später, soll vor einigen Tagen gewesen sein, hätte die Bank jedoch kleinlaut bekanntgegeben, dass sie diese Zahlen korrigieren müssten, weil einerseits jetzt andere Kriterien zur Bilanzierung angewendet würden, und andererseits der Bank einige "kleinere Berechnungsfehler" unterlaufen seien. Dadurch sei der neue Gewinn jetzt nur noch ca." 700 Millionen" Franken. Nur jetzt sei bei den Schweizer Zeitungen nichts, oder nur ganz klein darüber berichtet worden.


    Kennt jemand diesen Sachverhalt genauer?

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imgfarm.com/images/money_subheadlogo3.gif]


    http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/n…&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw


    Stillwater Mining posts 1st-qtr profit

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://money.iwon.com/img/logo_reuters.gif] 

    Thursday April 29, 4:21 PM EDT


    NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC), the only U.S. producer of palladium and platinum, on Thursday said it posted a quarterly profit, versus a year-ago loss, helped by higher prices and higher demand for palladium.


    The Columbus, Montana company reported first-quarter net income of $15.8 million, or 17 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $1.8 million, or 4 cents a share, in the year-ago period.



    ©2004 Reuters Limited.

    Aus´m w:o Board vom 19.03.03:
    Hier wird Malik so zitiert (volle Text nicht mehr einsehbar):
    "Kursrally bedeutungslos


    - keine längere Erholung
    - Börsenfolklore


    Der Kursanstieg der letzten paar Tage ist meines Erachtens nicht, wie viele glauben, der Beginn einer längern Erholung. Er ist eher ein kurzes Zögern vor einem möglicherweise dramatischen Sturz. Nur eine Minderheit rechnet damit; nur wenige können es sich überhaupt vorstellen."


    Schätze, mit dieser Prognose lag er leicht daneben.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif]


    http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4962951&action=article


    Breaking news


    2004-04-29 19:21 GMT:

    Gold futures climb, close above $387


    SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- June gold closed at $387.10 an ounce, up $1.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following a more than $13 loss in the previous session. Earlier, prices fell to a six-month low of $380.50. July copper tacked on 1.4 percent to close at $1.1925 per pound, but July silver closed down 0.8 percent, July platinum fell 2 percent, and June palladium fell 3 percent. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.thestar.com/images/star/nav/star_banner.gif]


    Apr. 29, 2004. 09:09 AM


    Inmet Mining's Q1 profit soars to $23M


    FROM CANADIAN PRESS


    Inmet Mining Corp. more than tripled its net profits in the first quarter because of higher metal prices and the company's increasing copper operations.


    weiter....


    http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/…50072197&col=968705923364

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]


    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/319155.htm


    London Gold Fixing ritual to end


    By: Tim Wood


    Posted: '29-APR-04 11:52' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    NEW YORK (Mineweb.com) -- As expected, the London Gold Fixing has announced that it will in future rotate the chairmanship of the arrangement and end a tradition of meeting in person to set bellwether gold prices twice a day.


    Starting in May, each member bank will assume the chairmanship of the fixing for a one year period starting with ScotiaBank division ScotiaMocatta.


    "As of the same date, the Fixing will take place by telephone and the five member firms will no longer meet face-to-face as has previously been the case. As part of this change, it is intended that a web-based commentary of the Fixing will be introduced later this year", the Fixing said in a statement.


    The decision by N.M. Rothschild & Sons to quit the gold business leaves a vacancy at the Fixing. Ongoing members are Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Société Generale.


    Simon Weeks is the chairman-elect of the London Gold Fixing.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    April 29 - Gold $386.70 up $1.20 - Silver $5.80 down 7 cents


    Massive Panic Selling Sets Up Sharp Gold, Silver Price Recovery


    Zitat

    "Whoever has or is given the authority to create credit has the authority to extract wealth from the economy by that same mechanism." Vladimir Nuri, Fractional Reserve Banking as Economic Parasitism


    Zitat

    "The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debts." Henry Ford


    If today wasn’t rough enough, an electrical boom of some sort knocked out my commentary for the day, so here we go again.


    Yesterday’s savage and orchestrated assault on the precious metals by The Gold Cartel was felt all over the investment world. However, many of those investors in the Asian world were asleep. When they awoke, many of them panicked and began to dump their positions. The selling continued into the Comex opening. At one point last evening/this early morning, gold was down another $7+ and silver dropped another 32 cents lower.


    Gold and silver recovered somewhat from those drastic levels and then moved higher for most of the session. Trading was extremely choppy. Gold closed higher as the market appears to be very short, however, silver continued to liquidate. As evidence of this, the gold open interest went up 1213 contracts to 247,717, while the silver open interest fell 3639 contracts to 102,877 (see Dan Norcini below for analysis).


    How much evidence of massive gold/silver market intervention does anyone need to realize the mainstream central banking world is petrified of sharply rising precious metals prices at this time, or any time? Weeks ago there was the planted, unsigned FT story and repetitive newspaper commentary of French and German central bank gold sales. Who can forget the postponement of the PPI report on some flimsy excuse to keep the true inflation picture from the US public? Yesterday, a story surfaced about the Chinese pulling back on lending. The Gold Cartel let into gold and silver, realizing they could spook the hedge funds, which they did. Today, the Chinese debunked the story. This is not an isolated occurrence. Remember when a troubled US stock market needed a lift with gold on a roll and a story was floated that Osama bin Laden’s number two man was surrounded in the Afghan mountains. It turned out to be bogus also. What a sick crew we have manipulating these markets! The Chinese denial:


    BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - China's banking regulator and central bank denied on Thursday reports that they had issued a ban on new lending. "We have never asked them (banks) to stop making loans. We have never issued any document, internal or open," a spokesman for the China Banking Regulatory Commission said.


    The spokesman had been asked about Hong Kong media reports saying China's "Big Four" state banks had received an official directive to suspend new loans until May 1. Smaller commercial banks had also reportedly halted new lending in anticipation of a tighter loan policy from the government.


    A People's Bank of China spokesman also said it had not issued such an order. "We have never made a such a requirement. We have absolutely have not done that," the spokesman said. –END-


    Meanwhile, the news which should affect the price of gold continues to become more bullish, which is probably why The Gold Cartel has orchestrated this massive assault on the precious metals.


    The economic news continues to reveal far greater inflation than previously acknowledged (no surprise to Café members though):


    http://www.thestreet.com


    08:34 GDP deflator, ECI might add to inflation concerns;
    Taken together, the GDP and deflator numbers show that market expectations for nominal GDP were close to the market consensus. Yet the breakdown between real growth and inflation will be a disappointment, as real growth was 4.2% vs the expected 5%, and the deflator rose 2.5% instead of the expected 2.0%. Furthermore, the Employment Cost Index rose 1.1% in Q1, stronger than the 0.9% consensus and the 0.8% increase in Q4. Both of these reports will exacerbate the market's fears of inflation and Fed rate hikes. –END-


    Ten more dead US soldier in Iraq today. What a nightmare, one which has no end in sight. The economic and geopolitical ramifications of this blunder will have profound effects on US financial markets in the months to come. How can they not?


    The US leaders who got us into this continue to talk of a few rebels and minor skirmishes, but is that all it is? (See Appendix for Lawrence of Arabia comments on this sort of thing many years ago). How can so few kill so many of us? Alarm bells are quietly going off all over the place. RETIRED ARMY GENERAL WILLIAM ODOM, directed the National Security Agency under former President Reagan, and served on Carter's National Security Council staff, is urging an IMMEDIATE PULL-OUT FROM IRAQ. His words:


    It would be delusional, asserts Gen. Odom, to "stay the course" in Iraq; keeping troops in would increase hatred of the U.S., likely threatening to destabilize the region and jeopardizing international relations as the U.S. becomes more isolated.


    The U.S. should withdraw troops from Iraq as rapidly as possible, he says, for the sake of American security and economic interests.


    "We have failed," he declares.


    -END-


    If all of those items were not bullish enough, the dollar was hit hard today and fell to 90.80, down .63, while the euro rose sharply to 119.68, up 1.47, moving solidly back above its 200-day moving average.


    Based on all the news, the US stock and bond markets are doing just what they should be doing under the circumstances. The DOW closed down 70 to 10,272 even after one of its patented Hail Mary rallies. The DOG was smashed again, down 31 to 1959. The US bond market continues to reel as investors react to increasing awareness of US inflation and to the ramifications of US fiscal and Fed policies. The June 30-year closed at 106 21/32, down 22/32.


    Growing inflation numbers are rightfully scaring the fixed income world. But, there is no inflation, the June bond chart


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/64


    This week has been a brutal one for the gold/silver investor world. Certainly, it was not forecasted in my commentary, but understanding the heinous Gold Cartel as I do, nothing surprises me anymore. They will do whatever it takes to protect their interests and that includes lying, cheating and stealing. They are very consistent.


    Many in our camp believed The Gold Cartel was setting up a price trashing the past few weeks because of the gold related news items hitting the mainstream press. Few of us thought they would take it this far. More and more it appears they needed to take out $390 gold to turn more specs short. This last breakdown has demoralized millions of gold/silver investors. Gold and silver took out their last vestiges of technical support. Gold had held $390 on a closing basis so often, most of us thought it would do so again. The last two days shook up confident long-term bulls who are now not so sure of themselves anymore.


    No change the way I see it. This too shall pass. This is why it is so important to keep in mind we are dealing with a rigged market. It has been this way for many years. What is changing is the crooks are running out of physical gold to continue to play their scheme. They still have enough firepower and paper market capability to win battles, but they are on their way to losing the war. I am surprised they pulled this one off to this extent, but will be more surprised if gold and silver don’t turn right around and go right back up in the weeks to come. On that note, the Comex floor gives an immediate V-bottom rebound a zero possibility. Not one person down there believes this will occur. NOT ONE!


    Silver finally filled its breakaway gap right below $5.80.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    Open interest data confirms large scale short selling


    Thursday, April 29, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $12.32, PM $15.26, with world gold at $383.40 and $377.65. Enormous: far above legal import point. In fact the latter is the highest I can remember seeing. It was no doubt distorted by the 3 hour V-shaped nose dive with world gold greeted the approach of the NY opening: on the other hand, it is basis Bombay: Madras, based on Reuters data, was $2.10 higher.


    An interesting insight into India’s gold appetite appeared yesterday in the "Times of India" newspaper. Two parliamentary candidates for a particular constituency disclosed their financial data. One man and his wife reported owning 71 ozs of gold jewelry; the other couple and their children owned 497 ozs. Only the latter could be described as actually rich. See


    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/645209.cms .


    Japan was closed today. The Shanghai Gold Exchange did report higher premiums over world gold, but only by less than $1, and on low volume. Since world gold was down over $13, this was a feeble response. However, given the financial news from China, perhaps it was understandable – maybe even lending some credibility to this far from proven source.


    Yesterday in NY was amongst the most alarming gold has seen in some years. Mitsui-Sydney responded sensibly:


    Zitat

    "…the metals took a pasting overnight…(seeing) gold break through the 200 day moving average &…closing on the lows with knowledge that Tocom is closed for the start of Golden week, so the normal buying support wont be around. There has been good physical demand on the way down, but not enough to narrow the exit door for the speculators. The question now is, are we just seeing long liquidation or are shorts being established? Technically gold looks like it’s on its knees…However what these volatile markets have taught me of late, as when it looks terrible, buy it."


    UBS is also up beat:


    Zitat

    "Metals were hit by wide-spread speculative selling yesterday after the Chinese credit control scare… weakness of FX carry-trades also indicates that there is probably an interest rate element to the sell-off in metals…Our commodities and mining equity analysts believe… the move lower represents a buying opportunity"


    adding, quite reasonably:


    Zitat

    "Although there is no fundamental reason why slowing demand for base metals from China should affect gold, liquidation of basket products have kept gold on the back foot. We are looking for opportunities to buy gold retain our one-month forecast of $390/oz and $410 in three months"


    Perhaps the calmness of these dealer commentators reflects trading desk assessments of the type of selling seen yesterday. This morning’s open interest and volume data appear to validate this view: Open interest actually rose 1,213 contracts (to 247,717) on a heavier than estimated 103,393 lot volume. Since there must have been considerable stop loss liquidation on such a big and technically significant fall, the implication was that there was a lot of fresh short selling. At the expense of repeating oneself, with these kind of physical premiums this is not wise.


    JB

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