Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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The WSJ reports: U.S. trucking co's haul their highest prices in years -- WSJ : The WSJ reports many trucking co's are imposing their steepest price increases in years spurred by a strengthening economy and rising diesel-fuel prices. For example, Schneider National says customer demand exceeds its supply of 14,000 tractors and 40,000 trailers by as much as 10%.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $22.8 Billion in repos including another permanent Open Market Operation. Therepo pool actually fell to $40.68 Billion due to a very large expiration.

The pool's moving average continues up, signaling a steady increase in DOW support and the DOW's 30-day ma is also trending back up towards its linear track to 11,750 by Labor Day 2004.

With gold gyrating today, having touched $377 for a time, we much keep in mind that the dollar was tracking at 87 in past weeks and now is up over 91. Thus, gold ought to be down in absolute terms. This is the hard thing to appreciate when considering the DIVG.

In extremis, if the dollar index doubled to 180 gold would "plunge" to ONLY $192 per ounce! The issue most overlooked is that the "depressed gold price" actually buys the same amount of goods and services so nothing will have changed with gold at $192.

Last night's DIVG was 348.79, about where it has been (350) during this latest Fed-engineered down phase. The DIVG 200-day ma is still tracking up and THAT'S the most important issue to keep one's eye on. The DIVG 200-day ma is tracking up because the gold cartel has been forced to ordain it. Moreover, if the cartel were engaged in a simple trick to lure in unsuspecting gold bugs they would have set up a quick spike as they have in the past. This time it has been a steady four-month rise in the DIVG, which is the absolute value of gold expressed in terms of the major currencies.

A separate issue of concern are the gold share jitters as they can be shorted by the big Wall Street houses. Jim Sinclair has opined on this topic in the past urging holders to eliminate margin accounts so as to prevent others from shorting the very sector an investor wishes to protect. Indeed, some of the Fed's primary dealers downgraded Gold Corp last week. Did they have advance warning about the Fed's current gold attack? Draw your own conclusions.

Tonight's DIVG will tell a tale if this is a serious Fed policy change or just a brief counter-attack.

Mike

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hey Bill:

Volume looks pretty strong in gold today. Yesterday's was massive; over 100,000. Looks like we might come in somewhere near 75,000- 80,000 today when the count is finished. Will have to wait to the sesson's end to know for sure.

Open interest was another shocker in gold. It went up again! This is simply amazing.It would not surprise me a bit to learn that the goon squad, who clocked it yesterday with those big offers to get the ball rolling to the downside, covered in the mid 380's leaving the new fund and small spec shorts to take their place. I am expecting another sizeable reduction in COT's short position with the release of tomorrow's Commitments Data. Sadly, it will not contain what happened on Wednesday or today since the data is only inclusive thru Tuesday.

Either way, all the longs who bailed yesterday were replaced by new ones as well as new shorts, a lot of whom sold gold down near 384-386. As of the close today - they are sitting on losing postions (Smile here). The guys who sold the 377 level early today in London must be reeling by now. The move up from 380 during the first hour after the GDP was on strong volume. No doubt there was panic buying by those newcomers. Nice to see some fear and panic grip the other side for a change.

We have a nice bullish hammer formation on the daily charts with today's action on heavy volume which adds some credibility to the thought that we might be sold out for the time being. We will need to see a confirmation of that however as we will want to see if the market will hold above today's low. A successful retest of that level and a bounce back away from it, should do the trick.

About time our side gets some sort of moral victory.

check with you later, Dan

Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio on the big picture:

Good morning, Bill:

Well, this was the day we've been waiting for, I think. You recall my research that showed that each double-digit (10% or greater) decline in the gold price back in the late 70s gold bull resulted in AT LEAST a 27% increase in the price of gold over the following months. No exceptions. In fact, most of the increases were far greater.

So, today was the day. From the most recent peak on the first of this month at $427.25 (London fix), we've now fallen 10.41% to this morning's London fix of 382.75. If we get only the minimum increase from the 70s pattern, that takes gold to $486.09. Naturally, we know the price will likely go much higher than that in the months following the election. But for now, if we're near the bottom, we're headed to nearly five hundred bucks—minimum.

It's become clear to me that the gold crowd needs to begin thinking of these cycles in terms of several months rather than paying so much attention to the daily or even the hourly price fluctuations. Manipulations or not, big runups are followed by relatively big corrections, and I have the feeling that we'd better get used to more, rather than less, volatility. We need to remember, as I've shown from other research of the late 70s market, that volatility is, in the end, our greatest ally, for in a secular bull market it portends much higher prices ahead.

Don't stop laying it all on the table, Bill. Sooner or later, "the fundamental things apply... as time goes by."

Trying to hang on for the requisite eight seconds,

Derek

The view from Australia:

All the wheels fell off the markets last night - all at the same time. Stocks and bonds, commodities, the euro and the major currencies, gold, silver, palladium, platinum - all were given a savage beating by "investors''. Markets are said to run on two emotions, fear and greed, and it was the former that reigned last night, but why? If you listen to the talking heads on CNBC you'd have to think that the US is booming. The Q1 earnings reports have been almost universally above expectations, Big Al tells us the inflation genie is still firmly stoppered in its bottle, the jobs picture is a beauty, and even Japan is going gangbusters. Surely a piddling 25 bp rate hike couldn't do much harm to such a robust recovery. So what's all the panic about?

The Chinese premier announced that changes to financing business expenditure will be introduced to put a damper on a dangerously overheated economy. Sounds like a wise move to me, and one that should have been applauded by the markets. A lot of commentators have been saying that China's economy is about to implode because of unrestrained credit growth and rising inflation. Making a pre-emptive strike against mounting pressures might stave off disaster and mean that China can grow at a sustainable rate for the foreseeable future, which is to everyone's advantage - especially Japan's which relies heavily on exports to the Middle Kingdom. But base metals were hammered, with copper and nickel suffering particularly badly. Nickel has now fallen 40% since hitting a multi-year high in January.

While the fundamentals for precious metals have been at their best in decades, the funds and the major trading banks took the opportunity to trash gold and silver along with just about everything else. As long as Big Al and the Fed keep mouthing their ludicrous assertions that inflation is low and not a problem, gold and silver will have to be kept in check. It's the accepted mantra that gold is a barometer of impending inflation, so Al and the boys would look pretty damn silly if they said there's no inflation while gold was soaring. The fly in their increasingly sticky oinment on this scam is that the physical demand from China, India, and the Middle East is very strong, so it's taking increasing quantities of Fed gold dumped on the market to keep the price down. Someday soon they'll run out, and then...........................If you want to get the lowdown on precious metals and how we are still in a bull market despite all the shenanigans, drop Bill Murphy a line at LePatron@leMetropolecafe.com and get a free two week trial of his daily newsletter on gold and the markets. And yes, I know I said last week that it was a great time to buy gold and gold shares, and it still is. There is really no way of knowing when the bottom of this brutal correction will be reached, but make no mistake, this is just a correction in a long, long bull market. Buying now will ensure you don't miss the boat when the reversal comes. And that is likely to be a sudden and very strong reversal.

If you accept the mainstream view that the US is undergoing a sustained and strong economic boom, ask yourself a couple of questions:- if tomorrow's GDP figure comes in at around 5% or more for the 1st quarter as expected, and consumers' balance sheets are "in good shape" as Big Al said a few weeks ago, then why are rates at a pitiful 1%, and why are personal bankruptcies at an all time high? Why is Greenspan in no hurry to raise rates as he should? And IF he does (not a foregone conclusion by any means) what will happen to that bankruptcy rate then? If, for arguments sake, you are paying 4% on your mortgage, and rates were to rise by a modest 1% over 12 months, your interest bill would rise by 25%! If you're in debt up to your eyeballs, and your wages haven't risen - and they're unlikely to while there is high unemployment and excess business capacity - how will you be able to pay such an impost?

The answer is you won't, and Greenspan knows it. And deep, deep, deep down, the markets know it too. That's why there was mayhem on Wall Street last night, and it's my bet that the bear market rally is just about over. The spectre of the Iraqi quagmire is looming ever larger, and it seems only Bush and Blair have any confidence in a successful conclusion. Mobs of British and American ex-diplomats have written to their respective leaders saying their policies on Iraq and Palestine will lead to disaster, and Kofi Annan and special envoy to the UN Brahimi have said that the US actions in Fallujah will lead to very serious ramifications. All that's needed now is a revolution in Saudi Arabia and we'll see oil at $90 a barrel. Notice how there's been major civil disturbances in Syria, Jordan, and Thailand in the past few days, all the work of Islamic fundamentalists. That's just a small measure of how much hatred is being directed at the US and its allies, and how many more moderate Muslims are going over to the fundamentalists' camp.

None of this does anything but bode badly for the American budget deficit which may actually reach $700 billion this year (after the social security fund has been raided to keep the 'frontline' number within the bounds of decency) and with the greenback climbing, be it temporarily, the current account deficit is also likely to keep growing. More debt to add the ocean in which America swims.

One day, all the effort of fighting the tide will become too much. You can guess what will happen next.

The Idle Fellow.

Some sound technical analysis follows which should be very useful:

Dear Bill,

At the risk of embarrassing myself on the subject of Technical Analysis, when you have the greats in the business are reading your work, just the same, I thought I would enclose a chart of the XAU that I sent to clients during one of the many corrections, we have had along the way. This chart shows the correction in early 2003. Many people were frightened and some called me a kook, but Gold and the XAU recovered and went on to new highs, as we all know.

This massive accumulation bottom, called a head and shoulder pattern, is why I have invested in gold, and the neckline was give or take around 80 with some spikes a little higher, which we all know now, we broke out from there.

As I have told you in the past I started in the brokerage business in 1980 and in the late summer of 1982 when the Dow broke 1000, I went to all my clients and stated that the stock market landscape had changed and we made a new all time ever new high.

Armed with charts and graphs I took from the best of the day (stole them I guess as I was learning, still am) and Mr. Yale Hirsch's chart famous long term chart, but much to my surprise few bought. Soon after when the Dow was at 1500 investors started to put their toes in the water. The Dow promptly corrected back to the neckline and investors bailed then it was ready to start the famous Bull Market.

I view this market in much the same way. You break resistance, like a plane going through the sound barrier with a bang, and then you get the hush of no resistance. Like the Dow in 1980 and the XAU at 80ish they were powerful breakouts. We have pulled back to powerful support. Will it hold, I think it will given the fundamentals behind the initial move, but then as you have stated, these guys are powerful. This is not a short term prediction, but longer term view, what has changed except the shares prices and as Mr. Hamilton stated last week (assuming nothing changed in his work) Gold Shares and Gold are well priced at these levels. Someone sold 3M in 1982 and missed a bull market that lasted along time. Investors today could be selling the Gold at bargain prices today, when we look in the rearview mirror 5 years from now.

This move is a blow no doubt especially, when I was already to send some unrealized gains on a new stereo, but the longer term still could hold a lot of promise for the long term Gold Bull.

Kindest Regards

John C. Newell - Investment Advisor
First Associates Investments Limited
Bentall V, 5th Floor, 550 Burrard St.
Vancouver, BC. V6C-2B5
T:604-640-0318
http: http://www. firstassociates.com

Then from my brother Tim:

Brother Bill, Gold took out its one year uptrend line at 395 and the breakdown was confirmed when it took out the double bottom at 390. The breakdown of the one year uptrend channel and the double top at 430 gives gold a price objective of 353-358. This price objective coincides with the three year uptrend line at 355.

The good news is gold showed hints of a reversal today. Gold above 390, especially if it happens quickly, would indicate a sold out market. Gold above 400 would indicate a complete reversal with the possibility of taking out 430 quickly. Today's 'reversal' brings us to the moment of truth. If gold starts drifting back to today’s lows, we have
problems. If gold works its way higher from today’s close, we have the potential for a massive rally. I haven't gotten the usual angry phone calls from several old girlfriends who are long gold stocks and have a knack for calling me at the bottom, but my guess is gold is sold out and will start working its way higher from here. Brother Tim

Tim Murphy
Swiss America Trading Corp
800-289-2646 x1019
trmurphy@swissamerica.com

More evidence gold supply is on the wane even as gold demand is rising:

Shine taken off AngloGold Ashanti results April 29, 2004

London - The newly merged South African gold giant AngloGold Ashanti reported Thursday a fall in quarterly profits at its core AngloGold business as weaker production offset a strong gold price….

The company said gold production fell by 11 percent to 1.235 million ounces because of a slow production start to the first quarter in South Africa and marked decreases in output at the Geita, Morila and Cerro Vanguardia mines. –END-

A Heads Up from Sargendra:

Did you happen to notice the following:

5 APR – HUI down 7 points

then trades sideways for the next 4 days at 230.

Then down 15 points on 13 APR

then trades sideways for the next 4 days at 210.

Then down 14 points on 20 APR

then trades sideways for the next 5 day at 195.

Then down 16 points on 28 APR.

What happens next? Sideways for another 3 days then down another 15 points??

This is called systematic bait-and-clobber. Take the market down, let the people think it’s OK to jump back in the pool with 4 days of sideways "bottom-like" trading, then toss another shark in the pool.

Then do it again. Then do it again. . .

Any bets they do it again next week?

This is what "ROLLO TAPE" (aka Richard Wyckoff) described in his 1910 book called "Studies In Tape Reading." This is known as a CAMPAIGN. Yes he used those exact words. NEM has gone from 47 to 37. Campaigns on Fall Street are usually a minimum $10 move. It isn’t worth it to the big-money boys to play a 1 or 2 dollar move. It’s 10 or nothing.

This is a professional "mark-down" according to ROLLO TAPE. It isn’t free-market trading. Well, maybe it is. If you have enough money to do this, then I guess you are free to do whatever you want with the market.

It will be over soon. They are almost done with this campaign. Couple more days to go. . .

Sheesh.

The gold shares were mostly on the plus side after their horrendous beating of late.

The XAU rose .86 to 82.06, while the HUI gained 2.10 to 178.79. Both closed well off their highs after coming out of the gait strongly. The notable exception was Golden Star Resources, which was battered falling to $4.44, down 29 cents. Most of the selling was due to Golden Star falling below $5, which means it is not marginable at many major Wall Street firms anymore. This is my number one holding and many Café members have picked it up along the way. One is the astute Eric Hommelberg who was kind enough to put out the following:

Hi Bill,

For those gold investors who are panicking, maybe this review of the July 2002 sell-off will help.

I think this example of Golden Star says it all !

Golden Star broke its 200 dma support (like so many others) of $5.31 and fell like a stone to less than $4.60 . Investors fear that the current bull-run in Gold shares is over ! Panic selling is the tune of the day !

Just take a look at this chart of Golden Star below, does it look familiar ?

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH1.gif]

What do we see ? Well. Golden Star breaking its 200 dma and crashing like hell !

Like I said, panic selling, but does a break of the 200 dma automatically means the end of a bull-market ? Well, panicking investors do think so, I don’t ! Why not ? Well, because the fundamentals simply tell us otherwise (CA deficit, $ decline, negative interest rates, decreasing gold supply, increase of investor demand etc..). Again, take a look at the chart above. This is Golden Star crashing through it’s 200 dma ! End of Bull run? This was July 2002. Many investors threw in the towel because they didn’t believe in the Gold bull anymore. Yes, in July 2002 investors were so desperate that they sold Golden Star at 73 cents ! (see chart below)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH2.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

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Teil II

This crash was painful for many indeed but those brave investors who simply had the courage to buy during these extremely oversold conditions had a buy of a life time. Don’t believe me ? Well, just take a look at the chart below, it will tell you exactly what happened next !

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH3.gif]

So what happened ? Golden Star shares doubled in just 6 weeks ! Why ? Simple ! The Gold Bull hadn’t ended yet and just shook out all weak hands before resuming its upward trend !

Today we see a very similar pattern as in July 2002. Golden Star crashing through its 200 dma and lots of panicking investors who wants to get out because they fear that the bull-run in gold is over, ! Déjà vu again ! Just take a look at GSS today :

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/EH4.gif]

As I said, a very similar pattern as we saw in July 2002 !

So the question remains, is the current bull run in Gold over yet ? Or has it hardly begun ?

Fundamentals (CA deficit, $ decline, negative real interest rates, declining gold supply, increase of investor demand etc..) tell us that this bull market in gold is very well alive !

Therefore I would suggest that it isn’t very likely that this extreme oversold condition in Gold shares is going to hold much longer. If the July 2002 pattern repeats itself, we could witness a spectacular run in Gold shares within the next two month. Again, those brave investors who had the courage to invest in Golden Star at 73 cents when everyone else was panicking were rewarded tremendously ! Now’s your chance to do the same !

Best,

Eric

The gold shares selling has been extraordinary. We should have seen the worst of it.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

Appendix

The following was written by Lawrence of Arabia circa 1919 and appeared in The Times in London. It is about the British Occupation of Iraq (then called Mesopotamia) after WW I.

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!

This comment by Lawrence, presumably about 1919, is truly spectacular, given current events...

A Report on Mesopotamia by T.E. Lawrence

Sunday Times

Mr. Lawrence, whose organization and direction of the Hedjaz against the Turks was one of the outstanding romances of the war, has written this article at our request in order that the public may be fully informed of our Mesopotamian commitments.

The people of England have been led in Mesopotamia into a trap from which it will be hard to escape with dignity and honour. They have been tricked into it by a steady withholding of information. The Baghdad communiques are belated, insincere, incomplete. Things have been far worse than we have been told, our administration more bloody and inefficient than the public knows. It is a disgrace to our imperial record, and may soon be too inflamed for any ordinary cure. We are to-day not far from a disaster. The sins of commission are those of the British civil authorities in Mesopotamia (especially of three 'colonels') who were given a free hand by London. They are controlled from no Department of State, but from the empty space which divides the Foreign Office from te India Office. They availed themselves of the necessary discretion of war-time to carry over their dangerous independence into times of peace. They contest every suggestion of real self-government sent them from home. A recent proclamation about autonomy circulated with unction from Baghdad was drafted and published out there in a hurry, to forestall a more liberal statement in preparation in London, 'Self-determination papers' favourable to England were extorted in Mesopotamia in 1919 by official pressure, by aeroplane demonstrations, by deportations to India. The Cabinet cannot disclaim all responsibility. They receive little more news than the public: they should have insisted on more, and better. They have sent draft after draft of reinforcements, without enquiry. When conditions became too bad to endure longer, they decided to send out as High commissioner the original author of the present system, with a conciliatory message to the Arabs that his heart and policy have completely changed.

Yet our published policy has not changed, and does not need changing. It is that there has been a deplorable contrast between our profession and our practice. We said we went to Mesopotamia to defeat Turkey. We said we stayed to deliver the Arabs from the oppression of the Turkish Government, and to make available for the world its resources of corn and oil. We spent nearly a million men and nearly a thousand million of money to these ends. This year we are spending ninety-two thousand men and fifty millions of money on the same objects. Our government is worse than the old Turkish system. They kept fourteen thousand local conscripts embodied, and killed a yearly average of two hundred Arabs in maintaining peace. We keep ninety thousand men, with aeroplanes, armoured cars, gunboats, and armoured trains. We have killed about ten thousand Arabs in this rising this summer. We cannot hope to maintain such an average: it is a poor country, sparsely peopled; but Abd el Hamid would applaud his masters, if he saw us working. We are told the object of the rising was political, we are not told what the local people want. It may be what the Cabinet has promised them. A Minister in the House of Lords said that we must have so many troops because the local people will not enlist.

On Friday the Government announced the death of some local levies defending their British officers, and say that the services of these men have not yet been sufficiently recognized because they are too few (adding the characteristic Baghdad touch that they are men of bad character). There are seven thousand of them, just half the old Turkish force of occupation. Properly officered and distributed, they would relieve half our army there. Cromer controlled Egypt's six million people with five thousand British troops; Colonel Wilson fails to control Mesopotamia's three million people with ninety thousand troops. We have not reached the limit of our military commitments. Four weeks ago the staff in Mesopotamia drew up a memorandum asking for four more divisions. I believe it was forwarded to the War Office, which has now sent three brigades from India. If the North-West Frontier cannot be further denuded, where is the balance to come from? Meanwhile, our unfortunate troops, Indian and British, under hard conditions of climate and supply, are policing an immense area, paying dearly every day in lives for the willfully wrong policy of the civil administration in Baghdad. General Dyer was relieved of his command in India for a much smaller error, but the responsibility in this case is not on the Army, which has acted only at the request of the civil authorities. The War Office has made every effort to reduce our forces, but the decisions of the Cabinet have been against them. The Government in Baghdad have been hanging Arabs in that town for political offences, which they call rebellion. The Arabs are not at war with us. Are these illegal executions to provoke the Arabs to reprisals on the three hundred British prisoners they hold? And, if so, is it that their punishment may be more severe, or is it to persuade our other troops to fight to the last? We say we are in Mesopotamia to develop it for the benefit of the world. All experts say that the labour supply is the ruling factor in its development. How far will the killing of ten thousand villagers and townspeople this summer hinder the production of wheat, cotton, and oil? How long will we permit millions of pounds, thousands of Imperial troops, and tens of thousands of Arabs to be sacrificed on behalf of colonial administration which can benefit nobody but its administrators?

-END-