Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

LUPO

Du verstehst es wohl nicht. Ein Archiv habe ich doch nicht wegen Dir aufgebaut. Das war bei W:O ganz einfach mit einigen klicks, in 3 Minuten möglich.Du bist Da nebst mir, wie jeder andere Poster auch drin, weil es immer wieder User gibt, die leider allzu gerne vergessen was sie früher öffentlich so alles geschrieben haben. Wenn dann ein "Fachmann" wie Du daher kommt, und den grossen adligen Gold Bug spielen will, und falsche Tatsachen zu meinen Drooy Aussagen verbreitet, kann man einem Schwätzer ohne Mühe belegen, was wirklich von wem geschrieben wurde, und was nicht. Mach bitte keine Aussagen zu anderen Usern die nicht zutreffend sind, und die Du nicht belegen kannst.

Dass Du die Aussagen der GATA seit Jahren, ohne je einmal seriös eine GATA Aussage konkret widerlegt zu haben, nur als komplete Idioten bezeichnest, macht Dich sicher nicht zum Gold Bug, und noch weniger zu einem Könner. Als Du den Lesern empfohlen hast die Kingsgate 2001 rauszuschmeisen, war das auch nicht eine richtige Entscheidung gewesen wie Du heute vorgibst. Es war eine katastrophale Fehlentscheidung von Dir gewesen, und nichts weiter!

Gruss

Thailand

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September 29 - Gold $412.60 up 30 cents – Silver $6.65 up 9 cents

Gold Up, Silver Pops, CRB Flies

Zitat

Some men see things as they are and say, "Why?" I dream of things that never were and say, "Why not?"...George Bernard Shaw (frequently attributed to Robert F. Kennedy, who used it in a speech which his brother, Edward F. Kennedy quoted at RFK's funeral)

GO GATA!!!

Loverly! The early market action was classically bullish with gold coming in pennies lower and VERY quiet. A meaningless second quarter US GDP number was revised upwards and all the financial markets yawned. However, gold quickly revealed pent-up strength and popped $1.50, not even making the slightest attempt to shoot for yesterday’s gap on the downside. The floor was more interested in gunning for stops right above $414.50.

The effort failed in the early going and gold sold off, as larger than expected builds in the crude oil inventories sent oil lower. Foreign currencies followed suit for some reason and gold sold off, going down a buck on the day. However, very firm support surfaced on the break and gold drifted right back up, looked at its highs for the session briefly, and then sold off once again on light volume.

Funds were buyers in this quiet session, while Gold Cartel forces were the sellers above $413.

The gold open interest only rose 1788 contracts yesterday to 266,565, which was less than expected.

Silver took off right after the opening, as soon as it filled its gap left on Tuesday. Yesterday I mentioned the odds were 50-1 silver would fill the gap. Should have been 100-1. Gap filled, silver turned around and went north very quickly. Even more impressive was when gold sold off, silver held like a rock.

The silver open interest fell 950 contracts to 83,896, which is very low. With the price of silver relatively elevated, it is surprising that not many specs are playing the silver spec game. The open interest is some 40,000 contracts off its highs earlier this year when the price shot up to $8.46. There is a lot of room for the specs to pile in here and take silver to new highs.

Update on the silver stocks:

Bill,

Although there was no change in the net silver stock today there was a shipment of 626,852 oz (125 contracts worth) that went from HSBC to Scotia Mocatta.

This is roughly the same size as the increase in stocks yesterday which brought the overall stock of its low of 108.5m oz. Could be a bit more flowing out soon - stocks in the eligible category are down below 9,500 contracts worth although they were lower in June.
Regards,

Tim Leleux (aka The Priest)
North Yorkshire, England

One of the main stories of the day was the strength of the CRB. It closed at 284.40, up 2.67, even with crude oil selling off. We are near multi-decade highs made on March 23rd. The CRB topped 285 that day, rising to 285.25 and closing at 285.08. Much of that was due to soaring soybean prices, which collapsed soon after. This move is much more broad based, making the price rise more significant.

Copper continues to fly, closing in new high ground. December rose 2.35 cents to $1.3930. Natural gas surged, while higher meat, grain, sugar, OJ, and coffee prices helped the CRB to its strong advance.

The dollar action was of little consequence, closing at 88.29, up .02. The euro advanced .03 to 123.23.

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The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.55 PM 7.45 with world gold at $411.90 and $410.95 Well above legal import point. Bad news for bears.

TOCOM volume fell 15% last night, to equal 29,251 Comex lots. The active contract rose 1 yen, but world gold was 65c below the NY close. Open interest slipped the equivalent of 171 Comex contacts. (NY yesterday traded 64,140 contracts, with open interest rising 1,788 lots.)

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Another "Hail Mary" rally late in the say propelled the DOW to a 59 point advance. The DOG was stellar all session long, rising 29 to 1894. All is Hunky Dorey as Bush sails into the big debate tomorrow evening.

The oil inventory numbers surprised everyone:

10:30 DOE reports crude oil inventories +3.4M barrels vs. expectations (3.7M) barrels
Gasoline inventories reported (900K) barrels vs. consensus (1.5M) barrels. Distillate inventories reported (1.3M) barrels vs. consensus (1.3M) barrels. November crude is trading lower to $49.80/barrel in reaction to the data.
* * * * *

10:33 API reports crude oil inventories +3.7M barrels
Gasoline inventories (848K) barrels, while distillate inventories (44K) barrels. Nov. WTI crude continues to trade lower on the DOE inventory build of 3.4M barrels, as shown in the DOE data.
* * * * *

Perhaps the real story:

Bill,

Here is my take on the oil.

Hope it is useful.

It looks like a full press is on to keep a lid on oil prices as well as other commodities prior to the election.

Today's oil numbers are ... quite humorous.

An increase of 3 million barrels, ... seems quite improbable, ... near impossible.

There is only one place this oil could have come from if the numbers are correct.

From June 19 to Sept 3, the API weekly oil inventory has averaged a drawdown of 2.9 million barrels.

In July, the average weekly API drawdown was 1.75 million barrels.

In August, the average weekly API drawdown was 4.45 million barrels.

In other words, the drawdowns in August increased by more than 150% with oil prices moving higher.

Hurricanes didn't effect these numbers.

Hurricanes began effecting the oil numbers with Ivan.

Considering the substantial increases of the September drawdowns, if the hurricane effect is excluded, it appears that the size of the September drawdowns may have increased since August.

Basically, if oil the oil flow is just back to normal, which is doubtful (oil flow should be back to normal in another week or two), a drawdown of 4 to 7 million barrels should have occurred.

The market was expecting a 3 million barrel drawdown.

The fact that there wasn't a drawdown suggests another agent is at work.

I believe this oil could have only come from the SPR. (I wonder if there is even enough off-loading capacity for importing oil for inventories to catch-up and show an increase.)

It looks like a full court press will be put on oil from now until the election.

If so, drawdowns for the next few weeks would be unlikely.

This has the smell of intervention all over it.

As a result, this may be the beginning of an intervention induced short-term correction in energy stocks.

If there is a correction I would expect it to be less than 10% and to last no more than 2 weeks.

Considering many oil stocks have had major multi-year breakouts and the size of the oil sector, pushing these stocks lower will prove very very difficult.

It won't be like pushing gold stocks lower.

Furthermore, with these major breakouts, there will be strong hand buying on these pullbacks.

The long-term technicals and fundamentals continue to be bullish and look to remain so.

I believe opportunity is knocking on any sell-offs in oil, gold, silver, etc.

Thanks for your wonderful site,
All the best,
Raymond Green
RGreen@ilnk.com

Meanwhile, oil only closed off 35 cents at $49.55. Pretty impressive performance considering a truce was declared in Nigeria and the inventory numbers were such a bearish surprise. The market’s tepid response suggests it believes more in Raymond’s analysis than anything else.

Chuck checks in:

Bill:

It's amazing how the news is accumulating here for a buying panic in the metals. Today is a nice quiet reaction to the upward pressure. I suspect that will be the pattern for a little while. A good day followed by a mild, milktoast reaction in the shares. We should start to see some good pops in the juniors and exploration companies. (By the way, if you remove the downgrade by Morgan on Freeport, the XAU and HUI would probably be unchanged)

Chuck

Bond guru Bill Gross of Pimco came out with his October 2004 outlook and it created quite the stir. Titled "Haute Con Job" he sounds a bit like some of us in the GATA camp, except he just can’t bring himself to calling a "spade a spade":

"No I cannot sit quietly on this one, nor as I’ve mentioned, have other notables in the past few years. The CPI as calculated may not be a conspiracy but it’s definitely a con job foisted on an unwitting public by government officials who choose to look the other way or who convince themselves that they are fostering some logical adjustment in a New Age Economy dependent on the markets and not the marketplace for its survival. If the CPI is so low and therefore real wages in the black, tell me why U.S. consumers are resorting to hundreds of billions in home equity takeouts to keep consumption above the line. If real GDP growth is so high, tell me why this economy hasn’t created any jobs over the past four years. High productivity? Nonsense, in part – statistical, hedonically created nonsense. My sense is that the CPI is really 1% higher than official figures and that real GDP is 1% less. You are witnessing a "haute con job" and one day those gorgeous statistics just like those gorgeous models, will lose their makeup, add a few pounds and wind up resembling a middle-aged Mom in a cotton skirt with better things to do than to chase the latest fad or ephemeral fashion. If those Moms are holders of government bonds based upon a benign outlook for inflation, they had better cash some of them in, especially at today’s 4.0% yield for 10-year Treasuries."

For the entire piece:

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/L…y/IO/2004/IO_Oct_2004.htm

***

What has taken Bill Gross so long? What Mr. Gross has to say has been routine Café fare for a very long time.

This Aussie has no trouble with spades:

I am a qualified engineer (now retired) with more than 30 years experience in the field of mechanical engineering.

I spent many years working for GM (Holden Engine Works Australia), Toyota Australia and Victoria University of Technology.

My main area of work has been quality control, which involves high level statistical analysis.

One of my major achievements was writing the quality control manual for Smorgon Steel Australia.

As a consequence I am very alert to data analysis that points to a process that is "out of control".

Recently I have made an investment in gold - mainly because I saw a growing weakness in the US dollar and felt that I needed some sort of insurance to cover a decline in its value.

Having made this investment I then took an interest in the price of gold and the behaviour of the spot gold market.

My conclusion, like many others, is that this market is "out of control".

A dealer would say in layperson's terms that the market is being manipulated but the strict statistical term is "out of control".

I do not wish to get too complex so I will keep my observations simple.

One sign of "out of control" is six or seven consecutively decreasing price movements (say taking a reading every five minutes).

This happens quite often in the spot gold market.

Another sign of "out of control" is the development of an unusually shaped graph of the spot gold price.

For example, if you look at a graph of a normally traded share price you will find that it tends to follow a random pattern as well as a general trend. That is, the price jumps up and down over short time spans but over a longer period trends up or down.

What I commonly see in the graph of the spot gold market is partial parabolic curves (see NOTE at base of text). The chances of any engineering plot of normal process data following a parabolic curve is at least several million to one - I have never seen it in my lifetime as an engineer. In other words sometimes the spot gold market appears to be unbelievably tightly controlled by one participant. At times it loses all components of a free multi-agent market. (There is an irony here - an engineer would say that this process is "out of control" but in fact the market is totally under control - by one agent).

The most simple explanation of a graph that might go parabolic is a graph of water flow as one turns off the tap one notch at a time over a period of minutes.

I now get into the realms of the definitely unbelievable. If I was to try to make the price of any commodity follow a parabolic path to arrive at a target price I doubt that I could ever do it. Say I was at the main city wholesale fruit market and I had unlimited truckloads of apples to sell and the current price was $1 per apple and I wanted to bring the price of apples down to 80 cents following a parabolic path - I could not do it. However with a computer programmed to tell me how many apples to sell at what price and how often to sell, I could do it.

The conclusion for the spot gold market is that not only is it being tightly manipulated at times but it is most likely controlled directly or indirectly by a computer program.

I find it has been somewhat amusing for me to watch the spot gold market and see the market periodically go into "parabolic mode". If I was a floor trader in gold I could exploit this phenomenon. Incidentally, sometimes a big agent does come in as a bidder apparently with a competing computer program, or else one player is just having a bit of fun. How else can I explain full parabolic shapes that sometimes become evident!

Feel free to send me e-mails on this topic. I find it very interesting.

robertkna@optusnet.com.au

NOTE: a parabola is the graph formed by the application of the equation Y=aX(squared)+ bX + c of which the simplest form of the parabola would be Y=X(squared). The shape formed by pointing a jet of water up at an angle of about 45 degrees is close to parabolic (not quite a parabola since it will be distorted by wind resistance).

Robert Knapp

Bill;

Just a follow up on a news item from a couple of days ago. Told you I would forward correspondence.

best,
Rob

From: Allister Heath
To: rob kirby
Sent: September 29, 2004 1:36 PM
Subject: RE: DJ UK PRESS: Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree Dlr Devaluation

apologies, just got your email now as i was in Brighton for the Labour Party conference. Probably far too late for you but here goes:

The headline was misleading, I'm afraid, but the story was real. This is the genesis of the story: a reliable Washington source told me that some senior US administration people- but not necessarily in the cabinet -- are convinced that the dollar needs to fall further. These people are trying to convince their colleagues, as well as people like the Treasury Secretary, to exert pressure on the G7. Unfortunately, I don't know whether "these people" include Greg Mankiw, members of the CEA or who exactly they are -- even more importantly, as I said in the piece, these people are "urging" and "trying to influence" the Treasury and/or the White House to accept the need for greater depreciation and tell the G7 -- they may not succeed and the offical US position may stay the same.

What is clear is that opinions are divided within the broader US administration and the only thing they care about right now is re-election. Some think a lower dollar, by boosting earnings expectations, would lead to a rebound in stock prices and hence help achieve re-election. Others believe it would be interpreted as a sign of weakness by the general public.

On balance, I suspect that the G7 comminique will be harder on Asia but otherwise the same - the point of the piece was just to highlight some internal US tension.

Hope this is of some use
regards
Allister

Allister Heath
Economics Editor
The Business
PA News Centre
292 Vauxhall Bridge Road
London SW1V 1SS
United Kingdom
+44 (0)20 7961 0041
aheath@thebusiness.press.net

Could not agree more with Peter R on this one:

Bill,

According to Barron's, Small Cap volume picked up a wee-bit last Wednesday and Thursday. This helped raise the week's volume up to 342,656,000 from 296,908,000 a week earlier. The year ago volume was 1,098,962,000, so year-over-year there were 69% fewer shares trading hands. It's been like this for a while now. I believe that this is an indication that the individual investor, whipsawed by 2004's range-bound stock market, has temporarily given up on putting their spare cash into stocks (at least you can watch a plasma screen!). That also means there is HUGE potential buying power out there to jump on any breakout — like the one coming in precious metals. The fireworks in gold and PM stocks that you have been predicting will be an awesome sight to see!

Best wishes,
Peter R.

There has been some discussion lately concerning the true status of Newmont’s hedge book. A fellow Café member has some feedback for us:

Bill

I spoke with Bruce Hansen, Newmont's CFO. They have 2.3 million ounces committed at about $375 on average. But these ounces are not counted as hedging according to GAAP. The reason is that these are sales contracts with a vendor, and therefore do not have to be accounted for as a hedge. Also, these contracts dates back to 1999 when Newmont panicked and did some put buying and call writing -- so these contracts were not acquired from Normandy (the Normandy hedge book has been eliminated). These sales contracts need to be filled over the next few years. NEM produces nearly 7 million ounces annually, so it's not a big amount compared to production, but at $475, their opportunity cost would be $200 million -- a big number. I didn't know that NEM had these contracts, but they are disclosed in their financials -- somehow I just missed them up until you forwarded the email below and I started to look closely at NEM financials.

****

Three years??? At $775 gold, this sales contract loss will really add up. The opportunity cost to Newmont shareholders will soar to $800 million, not exactly chump change and a heckuva footnote in their annual report. Newmont was conned into these "sales contracts" by the cabal and friends at the bottom of the gold market in 1999. The fees made by the "Hannibal Lecter" crowd were substantial and made bullish Newmont look foolish.

Bite the bullet Newmont and get out of these contracts, or buy call protection against them.

Speaking of Newmont, at least they have taken a baby step in the right direction:

From: Randy.Engel@Newmont.com [mailto:Randy.Engel@Newmont.com]
Sent: Tuesday, September 28, 2004 7:14 PM
To: wholt@holtshapard.com
Subject: RE: Wistar Holt @ Holt & Shapard Capital Management

Dear Mr. Holt

With respect to Jennifer Van Dinter's September 21st email regarding John Embry's report, "Not Free, Not Fair", we would like to clarify that Newmont’s response should not have referenced the September 14th Gartman Letter or referred to it as "objective." Just as it is Newmont’s policy not to comment on reports about gold such as "Not Free, Not Fair," nor is it our policy to recommend other’s views such Mr. Gartman’s. Rather, we suggest that people read "Not Free, Not Fair", and form their own views about the report's analysis and conclusions. We regret any misunderstanding that our September 21st email may have caused.

Sincerely,

Randy Engel
Newmont Mining Corporation

Golden Star Resources keeps coming up with the goods:

Golden Star Confirms New Surface Mineralization at Bondaye and Tuapim near Its Bogoso/Prestea Gold Mine

Tuesday September 28, 5:34 pm ET

…..Peter Bradford, President and CEO, commented: "The new deeper drilling is expected to result in an increase in the inferred mineral resource and, subject to technical and economic studies, is expected to provide sufficient continuity to allow the conversion of some of the inferred mineral resource into reserves. In the event that additional reserves are determined, these would provide additional feed for the proposed Bondaye processing plant that Golden Star expects to commence constructing once all environmental permits have been secured. Construction and commissioning of the Bondaye plant is expected to result in an increase in Golden Star's gold production rate to more than double to in excess of 350,000 ounces per annum from mid-2005. In addition to the open pit potential, several areas of high grade mineralization have been identified suggesting that a viable underground resource may exist in this new area." …..

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040928/286073_1.html

-END-

The gold shares took a breather today with the XAU dipping a bit to 99.39, down .39. However, the HUI came back late to actually close a tad higher at 293.98, up a scant .09.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Appendix

From Wexford Capital Management:

September 28, 2004:

Weird behavior in financial markets signal distress.

I am not convinced that the Powers That Are will be able to keep everything glued together prior to the Presidential Election, Plunge Protection Team, Exchange Stabilization Fund, Federal Open Market Committee or not. Just because Sir Alan and the very Democratic-spending-like Bush Administration have kept the economy afloat with still-very-low interest rates and a barrage of tax cuts does not mean that there are more rabbits left in the proverbial hat of government-created liquidity to pull out any more. We are dealing with global markets today, and most overseas exchanges don't give a hoot how many days it is before the American elections; plus, the currency and bond markets are so massive that there is not enough manipulative tea in China to affect prices for more than a few minutes during the 24-hour global trading day. Regardless of what happens during the upcoming debates, Bush will likely win re-election. Kerry is a man without a definitive cause (except to replace Bush) or a clear, consistent message. However, I just read a piece where the Democrats should consider themselves lucky that Kerry has run such an incompetent campaign, especially in light of significant American employment problems, surging Twin Deficits, the potential of a U.S. military draft, and an economy and stock market sputtering into November 2nd. The America that the next President inherits is faced with such massive geo-political, economic, and financial system problems that he who is left holding the bag when the UNAVOIDABLE IMPLOSION occurs will see his party banished for decades. Of course, us lowly citizens who must be lucky to get our shoes on the right foot each morning will be more disposed to throw all the bums out and start afresh with true structural reforms to the system, but don't tell the Pachyderms and the Jack-Asses!

Remember that I have sounded the warning cries like a Village Idiot for the last several years about the inherent dangers to the balance sheet explosions of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?!!

Not only are these gargantuan liquidity generators grossly undercapitalized with equity at a drop-in-the-bucket of 2% of Assets or less, but we are now beginning to see some of the bodies hidden in the Swamp of Creative Accounting float to the surface of regulatory and citizen scrutiny. I knew it, I knew it, I knew it. If an entity is forced to increase capitalization on the asset side of the ledger, how does it continue to package residential mortgages for secondary market sale at the current level of massive liquidity creation without proportionately ballooning the liability side of its balance sheet? Those GNMA notes that foreign central banks have been slurping down with their export-driven excess U.S. dollars, like they wouldn't be available the next day!, are going to have to be cut back if Fannie is going to build up its pure equity account of Retained Earnings. If volume of production is going to have to take a not insignificant hit to re-capitalize the company since floating more common stock in today's environment is not a likely alternative to generate the tens of $Billions needed for equity capital enhancement, then the spreads on GNMA paper over Treasuries are going to have to increase to maintain profitability. Liquidity in the former sea of mortgage finance is going to slacken at just the time when Home Affordability at the settlement table is having an effect on buyers in many residential markets around the country, aka Sticker Shock.

With 10-year Treasury rates taking an unexpected dip as of late due primarily, as far as I can figure out without implicating the Federal Reserve in systemic liquidity maintenance per prior pronouncements to buy Treasuries to affect intermediate rates, to foreign central bank Dollar recycling of an $500 Current Account Deficit, expect the best news on mortgage rates to now be behind us with the GSE sequential confessions. The marketplace has no choice but to demand a repricing of GSE paper due to a loss of confidence in the ability of the issuer to honestly and consistently report financial results and even to meet its obligations directly without Government Bailout during adverse market conditions (i.e., a sudden and/or rapid change in rates up or down). And the only way the U.S. Government can bail out any of the GSE's is to print more Dollars since the Federal piggie bank is basically broken, the value of which seems inevitably headed for another 20% devaluation in the shake of a G-8, G-9, or G-10 bureaucrat's tux tail. Beggar Thy Neighbor with U.S. Dollar Devaluation is one of the less painful ways out for the world's central banks, regardless of what it does to their local Euro or Yen balance sheets, since the American Growth Engine is sputtering badly and China's is progressively getting a speed governor installed. This is a prime example of the financial system distress I have been writing about for years. That mortgage-backed paper that you thought was so risk-free with an attractive yield doesn't look so attractive anymore, especially since they can only be converted into Dollars which aren't worth the paper they are printed on. Repricing GSE paper in the secondary market means repricing paper in the primary mortgage market for Joe and Josephine Six-Pack, particularly if Fannie Mae is forced to cut back on production volume to shrink its bloated balance sheet!

THE LIQUIDITY CRUNCH IS HERE!

Actually, it took extensive governmental audits to uncover the goo-covered fraudulent GSE accounting, and most whistle-blowers were given the internal brush off which cements any conscious investors' viewpoint that the corporate structure is still rife with corruption and self-serving actions on a scale that will make the Enron elite look like choirboys. Please take note that hedge position losses have been hidden on the books to prevent a loss of confidence in Fannie Mae as the March swing in interest rates must have caught these smug derivatives traders with their pants down. There have been several times over the last 3 years that debt market prices and, hence, yields have swung dramatically in one direction or the other, and I can bet you Raines' next slush fund bonus (Webster's needs to redefine the terms, "THEFT, THIEF, CON ARTIST, etc."!!!) that major, major derivatives losses were generated but did not flow to the quarterly bottom lines. Hey, how are corporate officers going to live like kings if they are held accountable like the rest of us commoners?!! The executives and Board members should all be fired before their next bloated paychecks, but we will see if government overseers and regulators have gotten true religion in cleaning up corporate governance.

The 10-year Treasury is also signaling the next recession that will be upon us before the snow melts in the Rockies in 2005. The Fed will get to 2% Fed Funds by year-end, and may consider increasing the interest rate buffer before March of next year so it can try to save the day again by cutting rates in the summer of 2005. But of course, my bet is that it will be an exercise in futility by mid-2005 since the Debt Accumulation Wall (DAW!) has already been hit by the American Consumer and the derivatives web is beginning to come unraveled as we all knew it would. I doubt seriously if we will ever get to an inverted yield curve prior to the upcoming 2005 Recession, since Sir Alan has one foot onto the retirement gold course; that would require another 8 Fed tightenings of 25 basis points at today's intermediate rates around 4%. Oil gushing past $50 per barrel on its way to $60 or $70 is going to greatly assist in the process during a winter that may be as unkind as the past summer/fall has been to Floridians. Any economist that thinks the rebuilding of Florida, which will see an exodus of inhabitants over the coming years due to the staggering 2004 loss of property, lives, and livelihoods, will stimulate national GDP had better reread Economics 101 on the price elasticity of demand. Even the BLS will admit that as prices of a good or service rise significantly, the consumers attempt substitutions or curtail their purchases/usages of same. The tragic events in Florida over the last 2 months are going to cause the prices of every building component, not to mention foodstuffs no longer available for harvest, to climb steadily in the months ahead. Building materials prices were already setting records in 2004, partially due to Chinese competition for supplies, and now an outright shortage in plywood, insulation, cement, and dimensional lumber is probably inevitable. I will wager that homeowner's insurance premiums in Florida (AND elsewhere) will skyrocket, as many insurers experience record losses that cannot be mollified by investment portfolio gains in stocks and bonds; I will also bet that insurers have derivatives losses from bond market volatility in 2004 that have yet to come to light, and that one or two major carriers are going to become insolvent/bankrupt. Not a certainty, but a high probability. Financial system distress is like a virus that can spread to many sectors rapidly.

As the yield curve flattens due to Current Account recycling AND Sir Alan FOMC treasury purchases just before the election (which I am convinced of upon further reflection and another cup of coffee), the Spread Game of Borrowing Short & Lending Long is getting squeezed like a retired Texas Air National Guard officer. As the spread or differential between short-term interest rates and intermediate rates narrows, the risk to the Carry Trade in virtually every asset class that could be leveraged in the last decade increases exponentially. Since extreme leverage of 20 to 1 has been employed in these up-until-now no-brainer positions, unexpected market moves in the Dollar, interest rates, or the stock market can put the equity capital of the hedgers at substantial risk in a matter of hours. With rising oil prices hitting new nominal highs, who would have thought that 10-year interest rates could have declined in this environment?!! This weird behavior in the financial markets is abnormal, and likely to catch many derivatives positions on the wrong side of these unusual markets. With niggardly interest rate increases in the U.S. at a time when more prudent central banks in England, New Zealand, Canada, and Australia are attempting to reign in inflation expectations by pre-emptively raising rates and tempering excessive speculation in various local asset markets, the Dollar is currently more resilient than one would expect given the fundamentals. Half-Trillion Dollar Federal Deficit and Current Account Deficit Twins, 1.75% short-term interest rates, under-reported inflation, epidemic financial corruption, stagnating economic growth, unpopular international policies, and an American Consumer and Governments laden with history-setting debt burdens should not be supporting the Greenback. However, this is another example of weird behavior in the markets that is destined to fool even the most accomplished of traders. Success breeds smugness, and smugness breeds imprudence.

What does this have to do with the price potential in gold and silver?

EVERYTHING.

As I have said until even I am sick of hearing it, the precious metals have consolidated since April, and are poised to break-out in one direction or the other. Given the above developments of weird behavior in the current financial markets and about 20 unlisted reasons, I believe we are at the cusp of the next major UPmove in gold and silver. Once gold breaks $430 per ounce and silver nudges $7 per ounce, you will be able to hear the screams of pain coming from the trading pits at the Comex. Markets do not operate by the calendar. They operate by the influences of the day and the minute, and the hour is drawing near when the bull markets in all of the precious metals will be reconfirmed for all but the most-diehard bears to recognize. Something big is in the wind. Keep a strong cup of java handy so you don't blink.

LUPO

Also gut, Du bist ein grosser Stratege Lupo!

Soviel Hass in gerade mal vier Postings von Dir unterzubringen, dazu bedarf es wirklich einer Strategie.

Das muss zu Beginn 2002 eine ganz tolle Strategienbestie gewesen sein?

"heute fliegen die letzten (australischen) OZ Minen raus".

Dann hast Du Deine Leser ja brühwarm angeschwindelt Lupo, wenn es nun plötzlich nur noch die Hälfte gewesen sein soll!

"Und zu KCN...das war eine Strategie....die Hälfte vom Tisch zu nehmen...dann ist der Rest umsonst."

Ob nun die Hälfte, oder alle Aktien wie Du damals geschrieben hast, ist nicht einmal so wichtig. Wichtig ist nur, dass es entgegen Deiner "Strategen" Meinung ein riesen Fehler war, KingsGate, zu verkaufen.

Die KCN hat, wie Du sicher weisst, sich danach in nur 1 Jahr vervierfacht!!!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/k/kcn.ax.gif]

[Am 7. Februar 2002, hast Du in einem Posting bei W:O geschrieben:

"Heute werden die Kaffern geschmissen,sind eh in der Steuer!!! Und ich bin schneller wieder drin wie eine Maus ein Loch hat"

http://www.wallstreet-online.d…tore+Lupo&timeframe=-3650

(Kaffern=Lupos rassistische Bezeichnung für Südafrikanische Minen)

Danach sind die Südafrikanischen Minen, allen voran die DROOY, Harmony, und Gold Fields nur so hochgeschossen, und haben hunderte von Prozenten zugelegt.

Auch wenn ich mir gut vorstellen kann, dass Du jetzt wieder schreiben wirst, Du hättest entgegen Deiner geposteten Aussage, auch nur die Hälfte der SA Minen verkauft, und es sei alles nur eine Strategie von Dir gewesen, ändert sich nichts daran dass auch in diesem Fall Deine strategischen Analysen bezüglich SA Minen nur ein weiterer Schuss in den Ofen waren, und Du den riesigen Preisanstieg damals bei den SA Minen völlig verpasst hast. Der User "Gold Only" hatte Dich noch eindringlich vor Deiner Entscheidung gewarnt. Nachdem Du jedoch gesehen hattest, dass Du Deinen Lesern im Thread einen Bärendienst erwiesen hattest, war danach wie üblich bei Dir in solchen Fällen, Funkstille im Thread. Keine Silbe mehr davon, dass Du wieder Südafrikanische Minen zurückgekauft hättest!

Im Jahre 2002 war es extrem einfach hunderte von Prozenten mit Gold Minen zu verdienen, wenn man 100%ig investiert geblieben ist. Das haben diejenigen Gold Bugs voll erleben dürfen, die von Gold 100%ig überzeugt waren. Lupo hat weder damals noch heute dazu gehört.

Lupo Du bist dafür aber ein ganz grosser Stratege!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.atlasmining.com/img/g_botm_mtn.jpg]
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.atlasmining.com/img/logo_main2.gif]

Risikoinvestment!

Ein alter Favorit von mir, den ich bereits dreimal als Langzeitanlage zum Kaufen empfohlen habe. Das erste Mal vor mehr als 2 Jahren bei W:O, damals bei ca. 10 Cents, das zweite mal hier in diesem Thread bei ca.21 Cents, und kürzlich zum dritten mal hier im Thread bei ca.23 Cents.

Schlusskurs von gestern 29 Cents pro Aktie

Mein persönliches Preisziel: 2.- Dollar - Zeitraum: 2-3 Jahre

Bei einer evtl. möglichen Wiederaufnahme der Silber Produktion, und Exploration, die ich bei einem nachhaltigen Silberpreis von 12.- Dollar pro Unze, für realistisch halte, würde sich ein Preispotenzial erschliessen, dass noch bedeutend über 2 Dollar pro Aktie liegen könnte.

ALMI scheint langsam aber sicher richtig zu erwachen.

Diese Meldung scheint der Hauptgrund für den gestrigen Preisanstieg von mehr als 20% gewesen zu sein. Die Umsätze sind gestern massiv auf 2 Millionen Aktien angestigen.

Heute dürfte es sich zeigen, ob ALMI den gestrigen 20%igen Ausbruch bestätigen, und vielleicht schon heute sogar noch ausbauen kann. Falls die Umsätze auch heute weiter ansteigen, glaube ich, dass nächstens nach den jetzigen Käufern, danach die Analysten diese alte Silber Minen Gesellschaft ebenfalls wiederentdecken werden, die glücklicherweise auf Halloysite Clay gestossen ist, das ALMI jetzt anfängt abzubauen.

Wenn alles wie angekündigt klappen sollte mit der Produktion, und sich die einzigartige Qualität dieses Rohstoffes bestätigt, dürfte endlich wieder ein Cash Flow bei Almi entstehen, der diesen Namen auch verdient, und Almi helfen sich aus eigener Kraft aus der Versenkung zu ziehen.

Die jetzt neu gegründete Tochter Gesellschaft für den Vertrieb dieses Halloysite Clays für Abnehmer in der Microtubular Medizin, und der Nano Technologie Branche, ist nur ein weiterer Schritt in Richtung Vermarktung dieser nach Angaben von Atlas Mining, weltweit einzigartigen Qualitäts Clays.

Bereits jetzt schon, hat auch die Produktion von Halloysite Clay als Rohstoff in der Porzelan Industrie begonnen.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/a/almi.ob.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/fi/main4.gif]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040929/cnw005_1.html

Press Release Source: Atlas Mining Company

Atlas Mining Announces Formation of Wholly Owned Subsidiary Nano Clay and Technologies Inc.

Wednesday September 29, 8:31 am ET

New Company To Focus On Sales and Marketing and Exploitation Of Microtubular Technologies

OSBURN, Idaho, Sept. 29 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Atlas Mining Company (OTC Bulletin Board: ALMI - News), a rapidly growing natural resource and mining company, announced today it has formed a subsidiary company, Nano Clay and Technology, Inc., to become the company's sales and marketing division focusing on specific markets. Atlas Mining will still focus on bulk sales of clay, contract mining, and other traditional mining opportunities.

Atlas Mining CEO said ''We have been meeting with a number of interested parties on traditional uses for Halloysite, but what has been amazing is the race with alternative technologies. Our current distribution channels are geared for the traditional end users. But after seeing some of the advantages of our unique quality halloysite as introduced by Dr. Ron Price and the US Naval Research Lab involving microtubular technology, we feel this is a market that merits our direct attention. If we don't pursue these types of opportunities we are not doing our job. The Halloysite clay used in some technology applications can yield upwards of $1,000.00 a ton, so our interest is obvious. We currently have commitments for about 15,000 tons of clay per year from our traditional markets, but feel if we work the technology side we can triple the demand and potentially increase our margins.''

Nano Clay and Technology, Inc. will immediately be led by Jacobson, but the plan is to staff the new company with seasoned, industry relevant sales and marketing executives.

''In recent months,'' continued Jacobson, ''we have had several high level discussions with companies looking for a solution to carry the nanotechnologies on which they are working. We realized we have only touched the tip of this iceberg with our halloysite. Our focus will not be in developing nanotechnologies. We are a nano-materials supplier interested in introducing our clay as the carrier agent to as many potential end users as possible.''

The Dragon Mine is a rich cache of the mineral ''halloysite''. Historically, halloysite has been used in the manufacturing of bone china, fine china, and porcelain products. However, internal and other chemists and scientists have discovered new uses for the processed mineral. The Dragon Mine halloysite also has a unique tubular quality, not unlike a grain of rice, only considerably smaller and hollow. The halloysite microtubules can act as a time-release capsule, dissolving over time, and can be filled with such things as antifouling paint, antiscalants, herbicides, pest repellents, and other agents which could benefit from a controlled release.

Jacobson continued, ''These types of sales cycles are a little longer to bring to fruition and it's important for all of us to have a very seasoned and professional sales and marketing company leading these efforts. Most of us at Atlas Mining are professional miners. We know mining, and the business of mining. We know how to mine, and process and even sell our core products into traditional markets. This is where we need to focus.

''These new and emerging markets for our products need expert attention from sales and marketing experts who understand this area. Through this approach we'll make this company successful from all angles. This new subsidiary has been formed to separate the core business of mining from the great potential in the technology sector,'' concluded Jacobson.

About Atlas Mining Company

Atlas Mining Company is a diversified natural resource company with its primary focus on the development of the Dragon Mine in Juab County, Utah, the only known commercial source of halloysite clay outside of New Zealand. The unique purity and quality of the Dragon mine halloysite is unmatched anywhere in the world and has spawned considerable research into new and exciting applications for this product. Atlas also holds mining and timber interests in Northern Idaho, and operates an underground mining contracting business. Atlas stock trades on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol "ALMI". More information about Atlas Mining Company can be found at http://www.atlasmining.com .

Safe Harbor Statement

As a cautionary note to investors, certain matters discussed in this press release may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such matters involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including the following: changes in economic conditions; general competitive factors; the Company's ability to execute its business model and strategic plans; and the risks described from time to time in the Company's SEC filings.

For more information, please contact:

John Roskelley, President,
First Global Media
Tel: +1-480-219-0886

Nun das war wohl für viele Leser hier doch wohl eine grosse Ueberraschung!

Den Wiederstand bei 415.- Dollar wie Butter durchstossen!

Das war erst der Anfang des Beginns!

Aber Achtung, um die 430.-$ rum wird sich das Cabal spätestens wieder neu eingegraben haben!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif]

Der heutige Silberpreis Chart, zeigt ganz klar, dass sich heute Silber wiederum vom Gold absetzen konnte, und zeitweise den prozentualen Anstieg des Goldes um den Faktor drei überbot!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif]

Heute alle 3 Indizes schön im Plus!

GOLD/SILVER INDX (XPH:^XAU)

Index Value: 101.63
Trade Time: 11:06AM ET
Change: 2.24 (2.25%)
Prev Close: 99.39
Open: 100.10
Day's Range: 100.10 - 101.72
52wk Range: 76.79 - 113.41


GOLD BUGS NDX (AMEX:^HUI)

Index Value: 230.14
Trade Time: 11:06AM ET
Change: 6.16 (2.75%)
Prev Close: 223.98
Open: 223.98
Day's Range: 223.97 - 230.24
52wk Range: 163.81 - 258.60


GOLD INDEX (WCB:^GOX)

Index Value: 91.93
Trade Time: 10:46AM ET
Change: 1.89 (2.10%)
Prev Close: 90.04
Open: 90.04
Day's Range: 90.03 - 92.12
52wk Range: 66.33 - 95.43

Russische Zentralbank kündigt weitere zunahme der Gold, und Devisenreserven an!

Alexey nun sog uns Gold Bugs doch endlich einmal genau, um wieviele Kilos, oder Tonnen nun genau die physischen Gold Bestände der russischen Zentralbank angestiegen sind, und vermische doch nicht immer Gold mit Fiat Dollars, und anderem Konfetti!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://pics.rbc.ru/img/ver99/newsonline_eng.gif]

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20040930165608.shtml

Gold and currency reserves forecasted to rise

RBC, 30.09.2004, Moscow 16:56:08.The gold and currency reserves of the Russian Central Bank may reach $95bn by September 30, 2004, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukayev told journalists. Gold and currency reserves grew to $94.3bn in the week ending September 24 from $92.6 in the week ending September 17. Ulyukayev also said that the gold and currency reserves of the Russian Central Bank could amount to $100bn by the end of this year.

Denver Gold Forum - eine erste Bilanz

17:03 30.09.04

Denver Gold Forum - eine erste Bilanz

Drei Tage lang versammelten sich hunderte Goldminen-Vertreter, Analysten und Investoren in Denver, Colorado. Das Denver Gold-Forum ist eine der wichtigsten Veranstaltungen in der Goldminen-Szene. Kaum irgendwo anders
bekommen Investoren mehr hochkarätige Branchenvertreter zu sehen, hören und diskutieren.

Dabei ist es für die Goldschürfer besonders wichtig, sich positiv zu
präsentieren. Die Qualität muss zudem stimmen, da das Auditorium mit guten Kennern der Branche besetzt ist.

Keine Überraschungen brachten die Vorstellungen der Großen, Barrick Gold und Placer Dome. Barrick will 2004 knapp fünf Millionen Unzen fördern. Die durchschnittlichen Abbaukosten (cash costs) werden bei rund 210 US-Dollar je Unze liegen. Im Jahr 2007 soll die Förderung auf knapp sieben Millionen Unzen anwachsen.

Auf den neuen Placer Dome-Chef Peter Tomsett waren viele gespannt. Der souveräne Auftritt dürfte überzeugt haben. Placer will 2004 rund 3,6
Millionen Unzen zu Kosten von 230 US-Dollar erreichen. Von den beiden großen dürfte Placer kurzfristig das größere Kurspotenzial besitzen.

Aus der zweiten Reihe stach Goldcorp-CEO Rob McEwen mit seinen Aussagen heraus: Der US-Dollar würde zusammenbrechen, Chinas Finanzsystem dürfte den Weg der USA Ende der 20er Jahre einschlagen. Gold sei daher das Nonplusultra. Goldcorp hält derzeit 30 Prozent seiner Förderung zurück, um von zukünftigen höheren Goldpreisen zu profitieren.

Zitat

„Wäre Goldcorp keine Aktiengesellschaft würde ich 100 Prozent der Produktion zurückhalten,“ so McEwen selbstbewusst.

Ob Goldcorp nach solchen exzentrischen Aussagen in das Depot eines jeden Anlegers passt, ist mehr als fraglich. Vorsichtige sollten von Goldcorp etwa in Wheaton River umschichten.
Ian Telfer von Wheaton gab einen aussichtsreichen Ausblick. Die Produktion dürfte 900.000 Unzen im Jahr erreichen bei nur 100 US-Dollar reinen Abbaukosten pro Unze. Nachdem der Übernahmeversuch durch Coeur d’Alene fehlgeschlagen ist, besitzt Wheaton nun wieder Phanatsie.

Auch Glamis Gold gab eine überzeugende Präsentation. Die Projekte (El
Sauzal, La Hamaca, Marigold) laufen gut. Ressourcen dürften in den kommenden Jahren zunehmen.

Meridian Gold will bis 2008 in den Reigen der Eine-Million-Unzen-Produzenten aufsteigen. Die Präsentation konnte jedoch nicht ganz überzeugen.

Ein interessantes Unternehmen ist dagegen Miramar Mining. Die guten
Möglichkeiten bei den Projekte konnte CEO Tony Walsh gut rüberbringen. Geht die Entwicklung wie geplant weiter, wäre die Aktie zu billig. Dies deutet auf zwei Möglichkeiten hin: Entweder es kommt in den nächsten Wochen zu einer Neubewertung oder ein Konkurrent könnte einen Übernahmeversuch starten.

Redaktion GOLDINVEST.de daily
......................................

info@goldinvest.de
http://www.goldinvest.de

Hinweis: ARIVA.DE veröffentlicht in dieser Rubrik Analysen, Kolumnen und Nachrichten aus verschiedenen Quellen. Verantwortlich für den Inhalt ist allein der jeweilige Autor.

*******************************************************************************
Wer die Hintergründe kennt, bitte Finger weg von Barrick Gold!!!!

Es laufen in den USA diverse Prozesse/Sammelklagen gegen Barrick Gold wegen Gold Preis Manipulation, mit unklarem Ausgang vor allem wegen den riesigen Schadenersatz Forderungen die im Raum stehen. Zudem ist Barrick immer noch so unverantwortlich hoch mit Gold Vorwärtsverkäufen belastet, dass Barrick ein weiter steigender Gold Preis, mehr schaden als nützten wird. GATA sprach kürzlich von einem Milliarden US Dollar Betrag, die die Hedgebücher belasten würden.

Placer Dom ist ebenso immer noch ein sehr starker Gold Hedger, mit den bekannten Risiken die sich daraus ergeben könnten!

Besser ungehedgte Minen kaufen, die von einem Preisanstieg beim Gold uneingeschränkt profitieren können.

Was nützt den Gold Hedgern ein hoher Goldpreis, wenn sie Gold zu tieferen Preisen bereits verkauft haben, die zum Teil massiv unter den gehandelten Preisen liegen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Market Regulation Services - Trading Halt - Desert Sun Mining..

2004/09/30 09:38:28

Issuer Name: Desert Sun Mining Corp. TSX Ticker Symbol: DSM Time of Halt: 9:24 EST Reason for Halt: Pending News