Was komplett ausgestiegen bist du ?
Hat dich Goldy ueberzeugt das die Hausse vorbei ist.
Wir hatten vor ein paar Tagen den Boden beim POG und HUI und jetzt wo es raufgeht steigst du aus ??.....
Das verstehe ich nicht da ist fuer mich zu frueh.
Anyway, deine Entscheidung.
Sehe gerade es war der andere Aktienmarkt nicht die PM Aktien. 
Das hast du richtig gemacht IMO.
Gruss
XAX
ZitatOriginal von Vanescent
Richtig geraten, bin jetzt nur noch im PM Sektor (voll) investiert...
Hatte ich übrigens auch "mistverstanden".
Stimmt natürlich,daß bei einem Crash der übrigen Märkte die PM-Aktien auch leiden.
Um aber danach umso heftiger anzusteigen.
Bin iÜ.auch ausinvestiert.(Hört sich netter an,als voll ![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
)
Grüsse
ZitatOriginal von Edel Man
[quote]Original von Vanescent
Bin iÜ.auch ausinvestiert.(Hört sich netter an,als voll
Grüsse
War nicht klar ausgedrückt 
Das "ausinvestiert" ist natürlich, wie wahrscheinlich bei dir auch, relativ.
Für Schnäppchen ist da noch Geld übrig, sollte es zum Crash kommen und sich da die eine oder andere PM Aktie anbieten.
Auch im Kleinen ergreife ich jede sich bietende Gelegenheit.
So war heute mein Aufsteller des Tages ein Kauf von 3kg Silbergegenständen (alles 800 Silber) für 160 Euronen.
Darunter wahre Kunstwerke, die auch das Auge erfreuen 
Gruss
ZitatOriginal von Vanescent
Das "ausinvestiert" ist natürlich, wie wahrscheinlich bei dir auch, relativ.
Für Schnäppchen ist da noch Geld übrig, sollte es zum Crash kommen.....
So ist es!
Habe überdies vorhin einige Gewinnmitnahmen gemacht.
Vor einem Crash,der ja nicht blitzartig kommt,wird einiges überdacht.
Wenn man Werte erwirbt,die dazu noch das Auge erfreuen,ists doppelt schön.
Und wenn so preisgünstig,noch mehr.
Gilt auch für manche Goldmünzen..........
Grüsse
Sorry, Aladin,
habe es erst jetzt gelesen.
Der Grund für meine Absichten (15. bis 21.01.06) ist:
- saisonal wäre es der richtige Zeitpunkt.
- Open Interest bei den Futures/Optionen auf einigen Minen-Aktien
ist zur Zeit so gestaltet, dass wohl vorher noch einige
vor dem Vefallsdatum eindecken müssen, andere jedoch
vor/zu dem Zeitpunkt Kassen machen werden.
- es mag zwar sein, dass in der saisonal lauen Zeit, Februar bis
April/Mail es weiter leicht aufwärts geht, aber nach einem starken
Jahresschluss neigen die Minenaktien im 1./2. Quartal immer wieder
zur Schwäche.
- daher beabsichtige ich ganz einfach, auf Nummer sicher zu gehen,
was bei mir heisst, ich liste mir alle Argumente auf, die für
dass eine oder andere Szenario zählen, gewichte sie ( 1x bis 3x),
was dann am Ende - zahlenmässig- überwiegt, das mache ich.
- zuguterletzt, 70% heisst bei mir 70% bleiben drin. War in den
letzten 2 Jahren zeitweise schon auf 25% runtergegangen - hab es
auch nicht zu bereuen gehabt.
- ausserdem es muss doch noch 30% geben, die mit Tränen in den Augen,
die den 70% im Zug mit Tüchern in der winkenden Hand und Tränen in den
Augen ergriffen nachwinken.
Gruss
Germoney
Schon gut, Germoney ;)... machst schon richtig.
Es gibt wieder lesenswertes auf 321:
Gold Bull Stage Two 2
Adam Hamilton
Archives
Nov 18, 2005
It has been a heck of an awesome week for gold, certainly one of the most exciting in recent memory. Not only is the Ancient Metal of Kings closing in on the fabled $500 level in dollar terms, but the psychologically crucial €400 euro-gold level was finally overcome. Gold investors everywhere, including me, are rejoicing. :))
http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton111805.html
Gold Moon Rising
Alex Wallenwein
November 18, 2005
Yes, gold is being manipulated - but so what?
Patience, my friend, patience. Don't you see what's happening? Gold is "manipulated" for sure, but that's a very broad term.
The US would generally like to keep it down, Europe wants it to rise, but slowly, very, very slowly. The Chinese like it cheap - and so do the Arabs. It allows them to buy more of it for less money.
In the end, what is really happening? Europe and the US are wasting their precious resources and general confidence-capital to try and keep its price under wraps, somewhat at least - and the Chinese and Arabs are the real beneficiaries. 
Moin Aladin
Zu Anlagestrategien im Allgemeinen und Deine Überlegungen
im Speziellen bin ich hier gestern morgen/11:05 eingegangen.
Die beiden Artikel hab ich auch gestern schon überflogen.
Den Hamilton aber ausgedruckt,um auch in Ruhe seine Grafiken zu verkosten.
Grüsse
Derart Merkwürdiges habe ich noch nie gesehen.
Und das bei Gold - Höchststand.
Ein Schelm, wer Cabal dabei denkt.
Grüsse
Hallo Edel,
schöne Grafik. Nur leider kann ich damit nichts anfangen. Würdest Du mir das mal 2 Sätzen auseinanderlegen?
Danke
Gruß CARLOS
Gday, Edel Man
Bezueglich der Strategie des Handels benutzte ich auch einige Umschichtungen sowie Fruehjahrsputz wenn ein hoch da ist.
Immer Mist Aktien die im Verlust sind zu entwerten,neulich bei PAL kaufte ich die vor dem grossen Sprung, als sie 9% wieder gefallen ist nach drei Tagen verkaufte ich diese was falsch war. So wie MGN da passiert das gleiche. Im uebrigen kostet es nur Geld mit dem rein und raus mit ca.2.4% Gebuehren. Das beste ist man laesst sie einfach laufen denn der Handel zwischendurch kann voller boese Ueberraschungen sein. Ich bastle an meinen Depot seit drei Jahren, siehe Junior thread am Anfang,nun sitze ich auf 166 Firmen was immer unueberschaubarer wird, aber beschaeftigt haelt.
Ich denke ich bin nun bei einer Stufe angekommen wo ich mich wegdrehen kann und mal abschalte was bald der Fall ist.
Ich hoffe ich sehe nie mehr einen HUI von 220 und Gold bei 465 USD.
Ich kann Euch auch die vielen Bilder nicht zumuten die in meinen postings sind, ich moechte Euch da nicht zu sehr belasten.
Schoenes Wochenende, bei uns sind es 30 grad mit strahlenden blauen Himmel ohne den stuermischen Wind der bis mitte Januar meistens blaest.
Der Pool ist auf 22 Grad, ich hupf jetzt rein.
XAX
Etwas komplex für 2 Sätze.
Bei grösserem Interesse die angehängte gute Erklärung, auch für andere Begriffe.
Hab sowas schon mal hier reingestellt.
Gold Lease Rates sind die Zinsen,die vzw.Zentralbanken für das Ausleihen von Goldbeständen erhalten
Was hier abnormal ist,daß die Zinsen für verschiedene Laufzeiten nahezu gleich,zT. invers sind,und zwar auf geringem Niveau.
Prinzipiell müssten sie deutlich auseinanderstreben.
Das alles deutet stark auf Eingriffe hin.
Grüsse
___________________________________________
Contango = Current cash interest rate - Gold lease rate
Because there is a huge tonnage of gold in Reserve Banks available for lending and because the lending is only done with highly reputable banks, the gold lease rate is usually lower than the prevailing cash interest rates.
Line Of Credit is a banking facility offered to the Miner by the hedging counterparty, in this case, the Dealer Bank. This banking facility is a contract that usually spells out the time period limits for the hedging and the maximum quantity that can be hedged and certain covenants/securities that are deal specific.
Hedge Book is a collective term for the total set of hedging contracts held by one entity.
Assumed Gold Lease Rate is often used in a line of credit contract. Most reserve banks will only lend gold for 12 months or less - possibly because national budgets are done annually and national economic conditions can change. But most gold miners hedge over several years (even up to 10 years in some cases) to maximise the gold contango effect which compounds over time and can increase the forward gold price by over $100 per ounce. For this reason, the counterparty dealer-banks have established a gold lease rate market that trades gold lease rates for up to 5 years.
Gold lease rates can be fixed on a daily basis, monthly basis, annual basis or several year basis. The short-term lease rates are usually below 2% (say averaging 1.5% over a long period) because they roughly reflect the actual low rates between the conterparty banks and the reserve banks. Beyond 12 months, the gold lease rates can climb to above 3.5% because the counterparty banks are bearing all the risk.
For this reason, many hedge contracts fix the spot gold price, fix the cash interest rate and the bank fees but leave the gold lease rate unfixed or floating. Most contracts will assume that an average lease rate applies so that the forward gold prices can be delivered plus or minus a few dollars per ounce. The most common assumed lease rate in hedge contracts is 1.5% but riskier players assume lower rates (and publish outrageously high forward price figures) and more conservative players assume higher rates in their hedge contracts. Note that there is some risk that the assumed gold lease rate cannot be achieved and some opportunity that better-than-assumed rates can be achieved - see below.
Kuriose Lease Rates ????
Derart Merkwürdiges habe ich noch nie gesehen
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold bei 500.40 USD ...... 
Silber 8.295 USD ....
Was ist da los ???
Ist nicht nur mir aufgefallen, Vanecent ebenso.
Schoen waers, ich schau spaeter nochmal nach.
Kann falscher Alarm sein.
http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi
Last trade 499.9 Change +14.62 (+3.01%)
Live mid-market rates as of 2005.11.19 23:12:28 UTC.
1.00 XAU
Gold Ounces = 500.400 USD
United States Dollars
1 XAU = 500.400 USD 1 USD = 0.00199840 XAU
Live mid-market rates as of 2005.11.19 23:14:28 UTC.
1.00 XAG
Silver Ounces = 8.29500 USD
United States Dollars
1 XAG = 8.29500 USD 1 USD = 0.120555 XAG
24-hour gold trading comes to Shanghai
Li Xinran
2005-11-18 Beijing Time
THE Bank of China Shanghai branch has begun to sell paper gold 24 hours a day, a notice on its Website said today.
"Huangjinbao" is the name of the paper gold trade that lets customers buy and sell gold at market prices. The gold price in China is the same as on the world market and fluctuates accordingly, the notice said.
The 24-hour service makes it possible for customers to trade gold from 8pm to 12pm, during which the price may change a lot, because it is the time trade in London ends and New York trade begins, the notice said.
Gold has performed better than stocks and bonds in the past four years, an expert from Shanghai branch told the Oriental Morning Post.
He said more and more people are investing in paper gold.
Gold continues to glitter in Vietnam
Vietnamese gold prices continued to track relentlessly rising international prices, reaching a 20-year high of over VND9 million (US$..) per tael Friday.
Saigon Jewelry Holding Co. (SJC) raised its selling price by VND50,000-60,000 ($3.2-3.8) per tael Friday to VND 9.02-9.04 mil (over $570).
Global prices rose Friday by $4.85 an ounce to $488.1, an 18-year high. In the last couple of days, they have gained $15.35 an ounce.
“News about the Russian Central Bank expanding its gold reserve is just a temporary cause,” Huynh Trung Khanh, director of consultancy V.G.C and former chief representative of the World Gold Council (WGC) in Vietnam, said. The real cause was the imbalance between supply and demand, he explained.
The WGC said global demand in the third quarter this year was 838 tons, up 7 percent over last year’s same period. The demand is expected to be even higher in the last quarter.
Vietnam is expected to consume some 70 tons this year, up around five tons over last year.
The current Vietnamese prices were, however, still some VND400,000 ($25.3) per tael lower than global prices, Khanh added.
He predicted that on the international market, the price would go past $500 an ounce by next week, pushing the domestic price to VND 9.6 mil ($608).
Vietnam uses the “tael” as a weight measurement for gold, with 0.75 tael being equivalent to one ounce. One US dollar Friday was worth almost VND16,000.
The Daily Reckoning
Baltimore, Maryland
November 19-20, 2005
by Kate Incontrera
MARKET REVIEW: DREAMING OF A GOLD CHRISTMAS
Good news, goldbugs - your favorite precious metal reached its highest
level in nearly 18 years this past Thursday.
We know that longtime DR sufferers aren't surprised; they've been advised in these pages to drop the dollar and buy gold for years now. After all, gold is the anti-paper, and despite recent dollar strength, investors areincreasingly exploring alternatives to U.S. and European currencies, aswell as stocks and bonds.
"Strength in the dollar is more a reflection of trouble for the euro and
the yen," Addison Wiggin tells us. "Gold is the only investment
alternative not susceptible to what ails the dollar."
And gold has proved to be a better measurement of wealth (and a better way to hold onto that wealth) over paper money time and time again. Bill
Bonner has called gold "nature's money" - and for good reason. You can't
turn on a printing press or create it out of thin air; this naturally
limits the "money supply," generally keeping it in line with the economy
itself
And last Thursday, gold for December delivery rose $7.80, or 1.6 percent,
to $486.90 an ounce, the highest close since January of 1988. Some
analysts say that the gold market may been supported by comments from
Russian and South African central banks, who hinted that they may want to beef up their gold reserves. Other experts contend that strong physical
demand from countries like China and India are driving the rally. And you
can't forget about those who buy gold as a hedge against inflation.
Whatever the reason for this rally, it all looks very good for those smart
investors who hold the yellow metal...and many believe that it'll just
keep getting better from here.
"Gold is going to (hit) $500 by Christmas and everything that happens is a step in that direction," said Peter Hillyard, head of metal sales, Europe,at ANZ Investment Bank.
"The funds want to diversify portfolios and they are buying commodities
because they are seen as being potential for better returns."
Kate Incontrera
The Daily Reckoning
P.S. Gold's jump this past week echoes the prediction Bill and Addison
make in their new book, Empire of Debt. "Gold is what people buy when they
begin to lose confidence in the economy, the government and its money,"
they write. "We expect they will begin to wonder more and more."
For a sneak peek from Empire of Debt, see "The Power of Gold", below...or
The Most Feared Book in Washington
http://www1.youreletters.com/t/189053/1390100/781252/0/
Fekete hat einen guten Bericht bei LMC:
This is not to say that Bernanke's helicopters cannot
frighten the speculators. They certainly can. If and when
they do, speculators will dump bonds, currency, and all.
Mr. Bernanke is confident that he can cure deflation
through hyper-inflation. He cannot. Under hyper-inflation
the currency is losing value faster than can be replaced by printing more of it. That is precisely the difference
between inflation and hyper-inflation. It spells further
decline of demand and vanishing pricing power, that is,
more deflation, not less."
Live mid-market rates as of 2005.11.20 08:01:28 UTC.
1.00 XAU
Gold Ounces = 485.650 USD
United States Dollars
1 XAU = 485.650 USD 1 USD = 0.00205910 XAU
Listen to Lou Paquette
Equally impressive last week was the performance of Gold, which soared to its highest level since December 1987 – close to a new 18-year high. In fact, Gold soared upwards in all currencies, and not just in the Dollar, which is most remarkable, and makes one wonder what is really going on. Usually if the Dollar rises, Gold goes down. But the Dollar is also posting new yearly highs, so there is another explanation for this. Think “Ben Bernanke,” the Sagittarian with Sun in exact opposition to Jupiter, and new soon-to-be Federal Reserve Board Chairman, and the perception that his monetary policies will be inflationary. I will cover this matter in great detail in the forthcoming Forecasts for 2006 book, which goes to the printer next week. Sagittarius and Jupiter represent “expansive” dynamics, and Bernanke is on record for speaking out about the evils of deflation, implying that he will do anything to avoid it, including printing more money. And in a related incident, my dear friend and Gold coin dealer Howard Weinberger stated in a letter to his clients that, “The Fed last week announced that they would be ending the regular reporting of M-3, which is the broadest measure of the U.S. money supply. Why would they do this? I expect that the incredible increases in the money supply are going to continue to be so huge so why advertise to everyone how diluted the currency will become. Just take away the ability to measure it.” I will have more to say about Howard’s services in future columns.
Diese Betrachtung von Hamilton paßt dazu:
Both gold and dollar prices are driven by investors and speculators buying and selling. For four years almost without exception gold prices were slaved to the inverse of the dollar's fortunes. Traders are now used to naturally expecting gold to rally on dollar weakness and slide on dollar strength. In trading well-worn habits create a lot of inertia and die hard. Many traders will still be operating on a Stage One paradigm for some time to come yet until they finally realize that the gold market has fundamentally changed for the better.
Gradually investors and speculators will begin understanding the new Stage Two dynamics. Over time the number of traders with Stage One mindsets will shrink while the Stage Two crowd will grow. Stage Two will only be fully here when the vast majority of market participants accepts that gold has decoupled from the dollar to rise or fall on its own fundamental merits and they trade accordingly. No one knows how long this will take.
Und noch ne weitere Betrachtung von Bill Cara:
ZitatAlles anzeigenA funny thing happened on our voyage along the Yellow Brick Road, months ago when I was telling you that gold had stopped tracking the USD, there must have been a policy change in Washington. The authorities must have known that inflation was coming and that interest rates would have to be cranked up as a limiter, but were worried about what that would do to the economy. So they decided to reflate, which is where the Treasury cranks up the printing press.
So while the Americans and the Europeans were fighting over how long the Europeans could hold off their own interest rate hikes, which led to a remarkable burst in the USD price, the Americans were reflating, and so oil and now the metals zoomed in price. Even though each of these asset classes is priced in USD, a temporarily inflated USD price (caused by the European Bank) could not hold down these particular commodity prices. That’s the result of reflation.
So there are two main factors in commodity pricing (apart from forex considerations); one is industrial (economic) demand and the other is investment (speculative) demand. And guess what happened? The Kudlow & Company friends were telling you that there was no inflation, but huge economic demand, which was really piling the manure high, but the speculators were trading off increases in the U.S. M3 with bigger long positions in the commodities.
And you were wondering why oil stocks were not going to the moon when Crude Oil was at $70? And you wanted to know why I sold my XOM at $56.84 on May 28 with crude priced like that? It's almost like I knew that XOM would be trading for the same price six months later.
Well to make a long story short, it’s simply because Metal Man in Zug Switzerland told me on or about May 16 that he was going to make another fortune in metals. I couldn’t resist, so I published two headline articles: “BUY GOLD” AND “BUY OIL” on that day.
That was a Monday, and you were blind sided with a bear trap on commodities set by Metal Man on the previous week.
Everything went perfect. He even had China’s Mr. Joe in on the action. Unfortunately – and this might be a big mistake – he suckered Mr. Joe into selling copper (short) and swinging into gold, platinum and palladium. Now that copper contracts have run from 150 to 200, Mr. Joe is being asked to step onto the world stage and tell us all just what he intends to do about that massive problem.
...
Nachtrag:
Ganz oben (zumindest im Moment) auf der gleichen Seite:
ZitatAlles anzeigenTomorrow morning the gold and silver stocks will run to the upside.
Unequivocally.
As I write these words, I am looking passed the monitor on my desk top, out across the shimmering waters of Lake Ontario on a perfect Fall day, and between me and the water less than 100 feet away, a flock of maybe 50 Canadian geese fly by in slow motion, right at eye level, and I feel I can almost reach out and touch them. I marvel at the law of nature, and I am sensitive to it, because like the capital market, and the rest of life, it is all around me.
I sit back in my chair and I ponder the reason why I do this.
You don’t know me, and I don’t know you. So why do I write lines like the first one above?
I know it’s partly because I care about people, and do this as a public service, but that cannot be the only reason. I don’t know why I sat down at 5:00 am this morning and started answering mal, and researching, and writing. After all, this is my day off, and surely I did enough yesterday and the five days before that to deserve time to myself.
I don’t have the full answer, but partly I think it’s because I have so isolated myself from the noise in life that I can see things happening that most others cannot. I looked right into the faces of those geese as they floated by, and I felt a connection to life.
I look at the squiggly lines on a monitor, and I don’t see a stock chart, I see a data series that is connected to life. It is pulsating. Because I am totally color-blind, I am hypersensitive to movement; I see meaning, when others see data.
I see meaning in the actions of others, yet I cannot in my own.
In any event, I see silver moving. I saw it back at the end of June, when I wrote about it.
And back then, on that last weekend in June, I also saw pain and death, which I too described in these pages.
....
Tomorrow morning the gold and silver stocks will run to the upside.
(Siehe mein letzter Beitrag)
Könnte morgen ein spannender Tag werden 
