Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The New Golden Bull: Ready to Charge or Ready for Pasture?

Here’s a brief update on my view of the metals market from a historical perspective. This is the first such update in about a year, but until recently there hasn't been much to write about.

This past week seems significant for several reasons. First, the London PM (Gold Cartel-adjusted) fix on the gold price Friday was $525.50. That was the highest fix since April 6, 1981 and thus a 24-year high. Also, silver's Friday London PM fix was $8.97, the highest close since May 22, 1987—an 18-year high. Additionally, the HUI "Gold Bugs" index closed in new high ground on Thursday at 264.86 and closed just a few points under that on Friday.

Obviously something big is happening. Ironically, there's little to no excitement in the mainstream world, nor apparently the least concern by Joe Sixpack about the stability (much less the likely endurance) of the world's fiat currencies. It seems the clueless market analysts are tripping over themselves to call a top in the metals.

But is it likely the metals have topped out? Of course, some of us laugh at the idea, but many others seem to be in a serious quandary about it. Here are some facts about the Great Gold Bull market of the late seventies and early eighties that might be of interest, as well as their modern-day counterparts. I think they'll help put things in perspective...

First, it’s important to realize that serious bull markets nearly always end with big-time price volatility. Case in point: The average monthly fluctuation in the price of gold during its great advance from August 1976 to January 1980 was 7.56%. The average for the final six months was 17.33%. The average for the final three months (during the blowoff stage) was 20.4%, and the last month, January 1980, the price fluctuated an incredible 52% (even more if you count intra-day peaks). Now, that's what you call volatility!

So how do we compare in our modern-day gold bull? Well, to continue the analogy, our bull is still a calf; it hasn't even found its legs yet. Our average monthly price fluctuation to date (starting from the commencement of this gold bull in April 2001) has been a mild 5.04%.

But here's what's even more amazing: since April 2004 when gold topped out on the London PM fix at $427.25 and then fell to a low of $375.00 in May, our average monthly volatility has been a puny 4.66%, which is well below even the overall average since this bull began.

To me, it's downright astounding that gold could be making multi-decade highs while logging some of the lowest volatility in recent years. Does this sound like a market that's topping out? Hardly. In fact, it sounds like a market that hasn't even gotten out of first gear.

Here's another bit of evidence that things are just now heating up. In the 42 months of the Great Gold Bull of the seventies, the average monthly gain in the gold price was 3.01%, which is impressive by just about any standard (except perhaps Hillary Clinton's masterful play of the cattle futures market some years back; but that’s another story). However, since this modern gold bull's inception, the average monthly gain has been only 1.31%.

That kind of return is respectable, especially when compared with deposits in CDs (AKA certificates of depreciation), but it’s paltry by comparison to the bull of the late seventies. Along these lines, this month has been notable for gold in another respect. With Wednesday's London fix of $515.40, those who purchased the barbarous relic at its lows in April 2001 have now officially doubled their money. We could compute the last 56 months' difference between returns on CDs and returns on gold, which "pays no interest," but I'm afraid it would embarrass the bankers among you. By comparison, though, it would be clear which of the two investment vehicles is the real loser.

I continue to be amazed by the advisor contingent and its constant readiness to proclaim a "top" in the metals markets. As Bill Murphy has pointed out many times, where were these bozos when the NASDAQ was making new high after new high? Where were they at Nazzie 3000, 4000 or at least—"It's a new era!"—at NASDAQ 5000!!???

In conclusion, here’s a bit of free holiday advice for those of you who still pay for gold advisory services that continually declare tops in the metals: drop your subscriptions immediately—they obviously pay no interest...

Derek K. Van Artsdalen
San Antonio, Texas

Bombing The Bears

Harry Schultz GCRU snippet
Dec 12, 2005

http://www.321gold.com/editori…z/schultz121205_gcru.html

Gold: 536.50 US$.... Ueber 10$ im Plus...

Das ist doch mal ein schoener Montagmorgen. Die Japaner kaufen ganz offensichtlich weiter - mal sehen, wie die Europaer und Amis nachher drauf reagieren.

Guten Start in den Arbeitstag!

ghost_god

imho ist dieser Anstieg vorallem der Unsicherheit bez. dieser Explosion bei euch zu zuschreiben.
Solange nicht Hieb- und Stichfest feststeht, dass es kein Anschlag war, wird dies preistreibend wirken.

Gruss
PS: Was hast du davon mitbekommen?

GOLD UP $5 IN TOKYO - MIDAS TECHNICAL ALERT

The Feb Comex gold contract, which is the nearby pivotal
one now on the continuation charts, has taken out its high
of 1981 of $535 on a quarterly basis. This breakthrough is
of big picture importance. What is of note is the next significant resistance for gold on a quarterly basis on the continuation charts is all the way up to $612.

Frank Veneroso confirmed tonight what MIDAS and GATA have
been saying for some time. The Gold Cartel has lost control
of the gold market. This was also confirmed to us the other
day by one of the members who sat on the Board of one of
the 12 Fed banks. This Board member has loaded his own boat
(big numbers) with physical gold and expects the price to
reach $900 to $1,000 within 3 years. This, from a
conservative banker.

One of the most critical dynamics of the gold market at
the moment confirms what GATA has said all along ... and
what no one in the gold mainstream gold world will even
admit exists. There is a MASSIVE Gold Cartel short position,
one they cannot get out of. The bums are trapped. These
white-collar thugs, who have violated US anti-trust laws
for so many years, have cooked their own goose.

I sent the following today to Ted David of CNBC, which
is like dropping an email into a black hole, but we
(GATA ARMY) have to keep up the good ole college try. I
included the Russian/GR 21 stuff I have been pounding
away on for weeks ... and these notes (facts):

*Since Gold Rush 21 gold rose $95 - YET, the dollar rose
from 87 to 91 and oil fell from $68 to $60 per barrel.
Almost no one thought that possible a year ago. The key
to the gold market is surging physical market buying
overtaking the Gold Cartel's ability to suppress the price.

*For years GATA stated the price of gold could rally $100
and the dollar do nothing as The Gold Cartel lost control
of their price rigging scheme. Few, if anyone else, thought
that possible. (It has done that.)

*The Central banks have less than half the gold they say
they have. Over the last decade they have surreptitiously
lent out this missing gold in order to suppress the price.
This calculation is based on studies by three GATA
consultants.

*One of the major factors in the gold market today is the
gold short position ... more than 10,000 tonnes in a market
with a 1500 tonne yearly supply/demand deficit and only
2500 tonnes per year coming out of the mines. The shorts
are trapped. Cannot get out. There are mega-derivatives
tied to those shorts. GATA knows this because of the
Bank For International Settlement derivatives numbers.

*A Gold derivatives neutron bomb will go off. Could happen at any time.
*Price prediction: Adam Fleming, former Chairman of Harmony
Gold and now Chairman of Wits Gold, said at Gold Rush 21
that he is looking for $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce. I concur.

Zitat Ghost:

Guten Start in den Arbeitstag !

Selten mit einem solchen Grinsen ins Office gegangen..

Und dabei geht's mir gar nicht primaer um das verdiente Geld, sondern vielmehr um den historisch wichtigen Tag fuer Gold & Silber. +14$ in Japan koennte man als harte Kost fuer die Amis bezeichnen. Let's see, how they'll react..

Ich habe allerdings vorerst meine Futureposition geschlossen. 40$ in einer Woche kann man schonmal mitnehmen - Hoffe auf leichte Korrektur an der Comex.

mfG

Die Minen ziehen aber nicht so wirklich richtig nach. Entweder gehts diese Woche wieder runter oder die Minen werden nach oben explodieren. Siegel schreibt das in seinem heutigen kommentar auch....bin nicht immer seiner Meinung aber was das betrifft schon.

Grüsse

Bei Minenaktien bleibt das Risiko der schlechten Geschaeftsfuehrung, der manipulativen Buchfuehrung, etc. natuerlich bestehen. Wuerde Futures, Options und physisches Gold jederzeit einer Minenaktie vorziehen - vielleicht denken z.Z. mehr und mehr Anleger aehnlich.

mfG

ghost_god

klar und die kleveren Anleger denken das Gold kommt im Moment von der Börse und nicht aus den Minen

Wenn´s erstmal an der Börse (am Futures Markt) genauso ausgeht wie bei EMTV oder Enron dann wird die Meute sich über die Minen stürtzen, auch wenn sie nur Ackerland statt Goldadern haben.

Deshalb kaufe ich JETZT Mienen, weil sie schlecht laufen

Gruß Osterhase

jedem das Seine.. good luck!

In meinem Depot ist von jedem was dabei.
Die Mischung macht´s und immer mal wieder rühern nicht vergessen.
Die Zeiten ändern sich ständig.
Z.Zt. ist ja jede Woche eine andere Welt.

Gruß und Good Luck too!

Zitat

Osterhase

Wenn´s erstmal an der Börse (am Futures Markt) genauso ausgeht wie bei EMTV oder Enron dann wird die Meute sich über die Minen stürtzen, auch wenn sie nur Ackerland statt Goldadern haben.

Ich denke auch mit guten Minen sichert man sich den Anteil den die Minen noch im Boden haben.

mit Derivaten auf Gold und Silber habe ich auch so meine Bauchschmerzen, diese können mit einem einfachen Federstrich abgewertet werden, wie auch das ganze Papiergeld.

Silberwolf

Sollte rein theoretisch der Goldpreis jetzt Richtung 600, 700$
wandern wird Johann Saiger der absolute SuperGoldGuru werden

Silberwolf

Absolut richtig.
Die "Bodenware" ist günstig im Preis und relativ sicher.
Gauner gibt es in jeder Branche.
Das im Boden liegende AU und AG in Prozenten kann man nicht so schnell verschieben wie Optionen.
Gauner suchen das schnelle Geld und treffen sich in der Wallstrasse.
Die Graben nach Geld und nicht nach Metallen, daß ist denen viel zu streßig.
Die Umständlichkeit eines Minenbetriebes gibt auch immer etwas Sicherheit vor Raubrittern aller Art.

Wie bei allen anderen Sachen: Nicht alles auf eine Karte setzen!
Es sollten schon 10-20 Minenwerte sein.
Wenn dann 2-3 Platt machen, was solls, die Gesammtperformence macht das Rennen.

Good Luck !

Herr Saiger hat eine echte Goldnase.
Er richt die Bewegungen des Marktes Jahre im Voraus bis auf die Kommastellen, da ist er sich nicht ganz so sicher