Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Wist ihr manchmal sehe ich den Maund voll wie eine Kuh nach 10 Guiness im Dicken Hund hängen.

Nachher daheim schreibt er so wirres Zeug.....wie alle halt.

Alles was gedruckt ist.....purer Scheissdreck.

Wieso glauben die Leute dass Wahrsager in die Zukunft sehen können??????

cu DL....der seinen Kopf zum Denken hat

Das nächste Mal pisse ich ein Loch in Schnee und aus der fraktalen Struktur entnehme ich den Goldpreis im Jahr twenty five,twenty five....ein uralter Song

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Moin Eldo

Der 1.Link funzt nicht!

Grüsse

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north437.html

die beiden ".." weglassen

linar

Lupo macht auch Wahrsagerkurse draussen im Schnee fuer ein paar Obstler.

Nochmals Hamilton:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton021706.html

http://www.theresourceinvestor.com/RI-pdf/RI-1105.pdf

Beim letzten sind viele Minen beschrieben, auch die MFL :D.

Have a nice day

XEX

Sorry Guys, es geht nur ueber LMC (Website), aber hier ist der ganze Bericht (437) .... Linars Link geht nun, trotzdem......

I published my report on "Buy Silver or Gold?" on February 7. By the end of the week, long-time silver bull Franklin Sanders responded. On February 8, I published Sanders’ article and my paragraph-by-paragraph response.

You can read it here.

Unless you are invested in gold and/or silver, the details of this debate may not interest you enough to read a long debate. But you should at least know about its existence. It is a debate over this question:

Will above-ground supplies of silver run low before above-ground supplies of gold – gold actually available to the market – run low?

I answer in the negative. Sanders answers in the positive.

It is also a debate over this question:

In a time of an unexpected level of price inflation or after a terrorist attack, is the demand for silver likely to exceed the demand for gold?

I answer in the negative. Sanders answers in the positive.

Finally, it is a debate over this question:

During a recession, is silver’s price likely to fall by a greater percentage than gold’s price?

I answer in the positive. Sanders answers in the negative.

I think a recession is coming next year, and maybe late this year. This is not written in dry cement yet. Wet cement, yes.

HI, YO, SILVER!

Those of us who are old enough to remember Fred Foy’s introduction to every Lone Ranger episode remember that famous phrase. Yet in the history of silver, this phrase has applied only once: 1979. That momentous, incomparable opportunity to make potfuls of money ended with the worst bloodletting in modern commodity history. To understand what happened, take a look at the chart of silver’s prices, from 1792 to the present.

From 1792 to 1972, silver went essentially nowhere: 180 years of no profits for silver investors. Then silver began moving up. I began selling silver as an agent of a broker (Monex) in 1973. I did this for less than a year. Then I went into writing full-time.

In 1979, silver spiked upward by 10 to one. It hit $50/oz in January, 1980. There had never been anything like this before in silver’s history. Then, beginning in mid-January, 1980, it fell like a stone. It kept falling until 1991, when it bottomed at $3.60.

Search long and hard; you will not find anything to match the spike in silver’s chart.

What happened? Bunker Hunt happened. The multibillionaire oil man started buying silver futures contracts in 1973. He kept accumulating contracts, pyramiding them: using profits in his position to buy more contracts. He then started demanding delivery in 1979, when the price of silver was $5.

Demanding delivery of actual commodities is rarely done in the commodity futures market. Those who have gone long (buyers of future commodities) buy an offsetting short position and take delivery of their money. There are vastly more futures contracts promising to deliver any commodity than there are supplies of this commodity. Some of those speculators who were short silver saw a crisis looming: no silver to deliver. They sold their positions. They did this by buying "long" positions, which drove up the price. It was domino time for silver shorts all through 1979.

Hunt was trying to corner the market on silver. As a multibillionaire, he was feared. He might be able to do it, investors thought. They were wrong.

Two things happened to stop him. First, the FED reversed policy in October, 1979, from monetary inflation to monetary stability: tight money. Interest rates began to skyrocket. The end of double-digit price inflation was imminent. Second, the commodity exchange changed the rules. No one was allowed to buy "long" contracts except to cover existing "short" contracts. Demand for silver futures contracts died overnight.

This caused the peak price in January. Then down went silver. Hunt could not cover his pyramided long positions. The commodity exchange sued to collect. The FED intervened and provided a billion-dollar loan to Hunt to give him time to liquidate his oil holdings and meet his silver contracts’ obligations. He had to collateralize this loan with his oil holdings. Hunt and his brother soon went bankrupt. He had to liquidate everything except his home, which was protected by the Texas homestead law. All that remained was his famous quip regarding the billion-dollar loan: "A billion dollars just doesn’t go as far as it used to."

Newcomers to the silver market may not remember what has gone before. Silver is approaching $10 now, up from $3.60 in 1991. That is a nice move upward. It began before gold’s move in April, 2001. The two metals have moved up in tandem since then.

The question is: Will this continue?

I think it will, but not in lock-step. If we get a recession, the upward move could easily reverse. With the inverted yield curve almost here, a recession looks likely for 2007. Only the FED can lower this risk by inflating, which it is now doing.

http://www.garynorth.com/public/department29.cfm

ALL THAT SILVER IS ALMOST GONE!

There is a story that the U.S. government at one time owned 1.5 billion ounces of silver. It no longer does, or so the story goes. It is not clear exactly when it was sold, or how, or to whom. You get different stories from different silver bulls.

There should be only one story: The government sold it into the market at particular times at particular prices in specific quantities. There must be public records. If there are, then we know when it was sold. If there aren’t, then all we have is a really good sales brochure story.

The standard account is provided by the Silver Users Association. In 1970, the government authorized the sale of its remaining silver hoard, which was converted into commemorative coins. By the early 1980s, the government had sold off all but 139 million ounces of its silver. This was finally sold by 2000. By the end of 2000, silver's price was down to a little over $4.50. The following December, it bottomed at $4.10. It began its upward move, one month after the retroactive official end of the 2001 recession. It ended 2002 at $4.75. Silver users could buy all they wanted from above-ground supplies, just as they had been able to do since 1980.

It is always the same story among silver bulls: "Next year, silver will be in short supply." I ask: Why was this story wrong for over two decades?

When Hunt began buying, the price of silver responded rapidly. By late 1979, people were selling their silverware to silver users, who were melting down these spoons and forks. If there was any silver in the world to sell, people were selling it to commercial silver users.

This is why the familiar story of the hundreds of supposed hundreds of millions of ounces of silver serving as an overhang, 1968–2001, is not credible, apart from specific evidence that it was being sold into the market by the government, in dribbles and drabbles, all the way up and all the way down.

If a specific quantity of any commodity is available for sale, then it is in people’s inventories. It is therefore in the market. It can have no future effect on price until it gets sold off and used up to make things that leave behind no scrap.

It costs money to hold silver in inventory. You lose any interest on the money you did not invest. You pay for storage and insurance. Why would anyone in his right mind have held silver in inventory after 1980? Only for short-term reasons. If speculators held 1.5 million ounces of silver inventory throughout the 1980s, they were dumber than Congress.

My point is simple: Only economic ignorance or the fear of an imminent cataclysm kept silver bullion hoarders from selling their silver to silver users, 1980–2003. If we are now facing an imminent depletion of above-ground silver supplies, then the reason has to be that the poor dumb clucks who held silver bullion are at last dying off, and their heirs are selling silver to users. But this has been going on for years. What is new?

When any commodity is sold to final users, the inventory shifts from speculators to the final users. If silver is used in jewelry, it is still in buyers’ personal inventories. If it is used for most industrial products, it is still available as scrap. Only as the old products are junked and buried in landfill does silver cease to be in someone’s available inventory. It may not be in bar form. It may have to be melted down and poured into bars. But it is still in someone’s inventory.

We saw this form-transformation process in action in 1979. Silver came out of personal inventories all over the world. Bunker Hunt had no possibility of ever cornering the silver market, even if the exchange’s rules had not been changed. Either at $60 or $80 or $100, he would have faced the reality of the silver market: Demand calls forth newly available supplies, which keeps prices from rising. When that day arrives, those who are "long" are trapped.

We are told that the COMEX used to have 1.5 million ounces in reserve. If true, this means that silver was in an easily accessed form: labeled bars. But the fact that these bars have been bought by silver users and converted into new forms of silver is not proof of a major decline in the quantity of above-ground silver. It only means that silver will be more expensive to purchase. It means that converting scrap silver to bars of silver will have to be paid for.

This will mean a rising price for silver if demand continues to rise, but not necessarily a spectacular increase. It is not that purchased silver has disappeared. It is only that it has moved from owners who hold it for commercial purposes to owners who use it for decoration.

Silver users are not fools. They have more incentive to monitor statistics relating to silver than almost anyone else does. Yes, they have bid up the price of silver since April, 2003, when it bottomed for the year at $4.37. Silver has had a nice move upward. But let us not mistake a move that was preceded by gold’s move by two years as some sort of alarm bell on an imminent shortage of silver.

Here is my main point: I have heard this same argument about silver’s imminent shortage ever since 1973, when I sold silver for a living. All through the early 1980s, silver guru (emeritus) Jerome Smith told people in a series of books that $50 silver was only the tip of the iceberg, that silver would be at $100 an ounce by 1986, and on and on. It was all nonsense. Silver was headed for $3.60.

When a wise man hears the same argument used over and over, decade after decade, to buy silver, yet the price only once has moved far out of a trading range of a few dollars, then he grows suspicious every time he hears the argument.

GOLD IS A SAFER BET THAN SILVER

I am a gold bug. This means that I believe that the dollar price of gold will eventually rise, because the purchasing power of the dollar will decline by a much greater percentage than is presently expected by conventional investors.

Price inflation alone will not drive up the price of gold or silver, as we can see in the prices of both metals after January, 1980. There was steady price inflation and also a price collapse of both metals for two decades. Unexpected price inflation is the deciding factor.

I think the economy is getting closer to a recession. So, I think silver – an industrial metal – is more vulnerable to a decline in price than gold is, which retains its status as money for central banks.

I warn everyone not to accept as proven the assertion that the alleged decline of inventories of silver in bar form is the same as a decline in the above-ground supply of silver. There is a transfer of silver going on: from professional speculators (few) to users (many). There are also inventories held in bar form by silver users.

Decade after decade, part-time silver speculators (readers of newsletters) have been assured that silver is running, out that a shortage will soon emerge, and prices will go up.

From 1792 to 1972, this was not a problem. Bunker Hunt came and went. Then silver’s price collapsed back to the level it had traded in since 1792.

Don’t get your hopes up for a killing. Some profits, yes, but not until after the next recession. Is it better than owning fiat money? A few thousand dollar’s worth, yes. You have probably heard that Warren Buffett supposedly owns all that silver that he bought in 1997: 139 million ounces. But, as a percentage of his wealth, this is peanuts. It is worth noting that this investment performed poorly for five years after he bought it – one of the most well-publicized clunkers in his career. Finally, he probably leased out 50 million ounces.

I have seen it all and heard it all since 1962, and I even participated in 1973 as a silver salesman. Silver is always running out. A new generation of part-time silver speculators is always lining up.

CONCLUSION

Easy Street is not paved with silver, contrary to William Jennings Bryan in 1896, 1900, and 1908; Bunker Hunt, 1973–80; and Jerome Smith, 1982–198?, who has long since disappeared. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. When recessions loom ahead, it is best to sit on the sidelines unless the FED is pumping hard (as it is today), or unless a major terrorist attack occurs in the United States, or unless some nation bombs Iran. None of this has much to do with an alleged imminent shortage of silver.

February 15, 2006

Moin guys,

ich nehm immer meine Fürze als Orakel. je lauter desto größer wird der POG.

Wenn Dragon Mining im HUI wäre, dann würd der HUI gerade durch die Decke gehn. Sieht ja aber auch so schon ganz gut aus. Und LNUX geht auch wieder ab, aber des is nix für Goldbugs.

Eine nette Woche

wünscht KR

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Laßt uns andere mal gelegentlich Eure Ergebnisse wissen.

Moin Edel,

ich hab gestern Zwiebelkrautsuppe gegessen. Willste des wirklich wissen?

Grüße retour

KR

Blaehungen ?

Ich hoffe es geht dir jetzt besser KR

Laesst du wieder einen Drachen steigen.

Die Luft ist hoffentlich raus, tief einatmen es geht weiter.

Hier ist die neuste Wettervorhersage:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/waltzek021806.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swink021906.html

Die Webseite ist spitze, da findet man fast alles was geposted wird auf einen Haufen.

http://www.golddrivers.com/

Le Metropole Members,

Served at The Hemingway Table:

ELLIOTT WAVE GOLD UPDATE IV

By Alf Field

"In August 2003 I published an Elliott Wave forecast for
gold which suggested that the target for the peak of the
first major wave of the new gold bull market was $630.
This target was affirmed in subsequent articles, the most
recent being "Elliott Wave Gold Update III" published 24
October 2004. Recent developments have necessitated a
revision of the wave count. There is now a possibility
that the target of $630 could be exceeded, possibly by a
wide margin, depending on price action over the next
few weeks."

Gold and silver technical analysis day at The Cafe.

SUMMARY

- The large increase in the magnitude of impulse waves in the gold market over the past 6 months has necessitated the revision of the price target for the peak of the first major up-wave in the new bull market.

- The old target of $630 has been abandoned and a new target of circa $768 has been estimated.

- There is a possibility that the market is about to start a “3rd of 3rd” wave, implying a strong up-move of at least $90 (to $630) without a significant correction. This level should be followed by a 4%-5% correction to $600.

- On the way to $768 there should only be the 4-5% correction just mentioned, an 8-9% correction and two further 4-5% corrections. After achieving the approximate $768 first major peak, the gold bull market should experience the first major correction, which should be in the range of 20%-25%.

- The above bullish expectations are predicated on the assumption that the recent correction from $572.1 (2 Feb) to $538.7 (16 Feb) is the minuette correction of about 4-5% expected at this time. The correction to date is 5.8%.

- If the current correction declines below $538.7 basis London PM Fixings by more than a few dollars, it would probably nullify the immediate bullish case and require a return to the drawing boards to reassess the situation.

- The correction from $572.1 to $538.7 is just $1.70 from an exact 38.2% correction of the prior $83.1 up-move, a classic Elliott relationship. Also the two minor down waves in the correction are almost the same size, another common relationship. These facts support the notion that the correction is complete and that the 3rd of 3rd strong up-wave should follow immediately.

- It is possible that there may be further sideways action in the correction (e.g. to form a “flat”), but the parameters remain the same. A significant decline below $538.7 sends us back to the drawing boards while a clear upside break above $572 would indicate an onset of the 3rd of 3rd strong up-move.

A typical correction reaches the low of the previous 4th wave correction which, in the above forecast is at $600, midway between the above two numbers, so $600 should be a reasonable target for the big correction to follow the $768 peak.

Alf Field

19 February 2006

February 20 – Gold $555.70 up $3.90 - Silver $9.52 up 12 cents

Gold And Silver Surge In Overseas Trading ... PapaOom Gold Cartel!

Do not go where the path may lead. Go instead where there is no path and leave a trail...

Ralph Waldo Emerson

GO GATA!!!

A quickie MIDAS for you on this US holiday with a bunch of goodie tidbits.

Both gold and silver followed through in textbook fashion of the perfect technical market readying itself for a romp to the heavens. Nervousness over the oil situation in Iran was a mitigating positive factor ... with gold and silver rallying more than oil itself.

The AM Fix was $556 and the PM Fix was $554.50.
The silver Fix was way up there at$9.54.

The platinum correction appears over too as it took off to the tune of $20 to $1024.

Guten Morgen

Ich schaetze mal man versucht heute wieder den PoG unter die 550 USD kurzfristig zu druecken. Asia hat nicht reagiert letzte Nacht, die Cabals hatten einen Feiertag. Heute sind sie jedoch wieder am Werk mit ihren schmutzigen tricks der manipulation.

Hier mal etwas anderes, ist kein Wunder das viele Analysten davon reden das Gold auf 2000 USD steigen wird in wenigen Jahren.
Was man fuer 2000 USD dann bekommt ist eine andere Frage.

http://www.obsceneprophets.com/

Fear, the Mother of Violence

Rodney C. Cook, Ph.D.

The mother of violence walks amongst us. The first hint of fear in the financial markets could be seen last May. So I wrote our subscribers and reiterated my bullish position on gold for the first time in a year and a half. But this fear smells distinctively different and I feel compelled to bring forward a discussion of something truly obscene. After all, so much of what were mere expectations a few short years ago are now mainstream financial news. So my opinions had moved from obscene to downright respectable. But speaking about what I see for the next few short years will keep me lonely at cocktail parties once again:

A catastrophic burst in the global bubble in human capital. Perhaps I should take a lesson from the maestro and speak with obscurity: “While this offers a perspective from which the effervescent elixir of tiny financial bubbles can be better understood and leveraged to improve personal sovereignty, and to establish a position from which fear and passivity dissolve as action takes precedent, it does little to instill hope for the vast majority of the stakeholders in global society.” Yes, much better than: “Yer gonna die sukka.”

The immediate and instinctive reaction to fear in financial realms is denial. But this may be ending as the fear that is beginning to be reflected in gold appears visceral. Simply put, it may well be the collective fear of death. A simple graph of world population would reveal that the number of humans has gone parabolic. If you removed the labels, all breeds of financial technical analysts would concur. A crash is inevitable if not imminent. So is the bubble in human capital is about to burst? How could this be?

An extensive discussion of population dynamics and carrying capacity would reveal much but leave us with just a few important take home lessons. The intrinsic growth rate underlying the exponential increase in the human population is constant and most argue that we have been able to maintain this rate of growth because we have been able to increase the carrying capacity of our world through innovation. This innovation takes many forms: all to increase the sophistication that we as individuals and societies use to improve our lot. But nothing is more critical than innovative social organization. Simply put, without our global efficiencies many would die. But is innovation sufficient?

My expectation is that innovation will be increasingly insufficient for highly centralized systems. Perhaps this fear in the market reflects a growing concern of the collective that Malthus was right and worse case scenarios for peak oil will play out. In that case the number of individuals for which innovation will be sufficient will be considerably limited. So regardless of the mechanism, if the grim reaper’s shadow is cast, the collective mind should begin to exhibit fear proportional to the magnitude of the menace. This should be revealed first in the markets.

My past writings have been guided by Kondratieff. Those of us that have correctly used the long cycle to strategically manage our investments and our lives have done quite well. But the recent run up in precious metals has surprised most analysts and investors with uncharacteristic signs of strength. A few of the more astute have noticed subtle signs of strength that are excessive even for those expecting a violent return to honest money; signs that a parabolic forcing function perhaps a full order of magnitude stronger than the typical K wave has entered the market. If so, gold reaching parity with the Dow would be at the lower end of the range of probable outcomes. Nearly all scenarios for gold above this level include a significant role by the horsemen in reducing excess human capital.

This possibility has emerged from an effectively zero likelihood as we routinely continued to hone the quantitative discipline in our precious metals updates. Digging deeper to determine the best strategies for capitalizing on the primary trend, a consistency in ours and others’ observations led us to pose a series of testable hypothesis. While admittedly these tests were tenuously cast and have low statistical power, we have consistently failed to reject the hypothesis that the freaking wheels are gona come off this suckka way fast. If the bounce off the 50 dma these past few days holds, then we fail to reject once again. And while the likelihood would still remain very low, our concern would grow. Even a fairly dramatic and sustained pullback would not cause us return our expectation to zero.

Subtle clues give this fear a likely time frame by consistently offering premiums to gold shares with particular profiles. Our investigations into established and emerging strategies for share selection have offered provisional evidence that is additionally disturbing. Shares with significant low cost production and short term potential for significant production have been uncharacteristically strong while participation by junior explorers has been sporadic with money flows easily explained by the attention offered by the established gold community. So is big new money is the scared money? This is interesting, as the gold community has more than its fair share of the paranoid. But it seems that the market is not as comfortable as it should be with risk. Again the data are weak as this could just be the normal rotation, but my concern will grow if ounces that will not be out of the ground in a fairly short time period are discounted as if they may never see the light of day.

So the action in precious metals may become more important as a prophet of obscene events than for the realization of obscene profits. Much is being revealed and it will be prudent for us all to adjust our strategies for life accordingly.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hier ist ein Beitrag der Silberinfo:

GOLD AND SILVER EXPLOSION AHEAD:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/silberinfo022006.html

Hi Edel

Klar es geht im Zick-Zack weiter nach oben.
Skeptisch sind immer einige Leute, der Markt ist einfach zu volotile.
Wer schlau war hat seine Chips schon vorher gesetzt.
Es ist noch nicht zu spaet auf den Rohstoffboom Zug einzusteigen.
Konsolidierungen sollten ausgenutzt werden um entweder aufzustocken oder Profite in physisches Gold und Silber umzutauschen.
Dann hat man es zumindest im Safe, der Rest liegt noch im Boden bei den PM Aktien. Was man hat ,das hat man !.

Ich wuensche Euch einen guten Handelstag, egal wie der nun heute ausgehen wird.
Es wird sicher so kommen wie wir es vermuten, die Finanzblasen werden platzen. Waere ja noch schoener wenn jeder seine Probleme einfach wegdrucken $$$$ kann.
Viele haben es versucht, jeder ist gescheitert.
Das geht bestimmt nicht gut, es kommt wieder alles als Inflation zurueck.
Wie sich Inflation auf den PoG/PoS auswirken wird wissen wir ja.

Sichert Euch ab, ...Go for Gold und Silver.

MfG

Eldo

Ps. So einen Esel koennen wir sicher alle gebrauchen.
Der andere ist Ben Bernanke, da kommt nur Klopapier oder Confetti raus.

Ich denke, wir werden ein paar Wochen im Zickzack seitwärts laufen und es wird einen zähen Kampf zwischen PM-Bullen und dem Kabal geben.

Was uns gelassen bleiben lässt: Jeden Tag wird das physische Material ein wenig knapper.

Eine echte Explosion nach oben würde die Ag-ETF-Zulassung auslösen.

...vielleicht interessiert sich jemand für Short Positions in Canada-Aktien

http://www.canada.com/national…data/short_positions.html

linar