Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Laßt uns andere mal gelegentlich Eure Ergebnisse wissen.

Moin Edel,

ich hab gestern Zwiebelkrautsuppe gegessen. Willste des wirklich wissen?

Grüße retour

KR

Blaehungen ?

Ich hoffe es geht dir jetzt besser KR

Laesst du wieder einen Drachen steigen.

Die Luft ist hoffentlich raus, tief einatmen es geht weiter.

Hier ist die neuste Wettervorhersage:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/waltzek021806.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swink021906.html

Die Webseite ist spitze, da findet man fast alles was geposted wird auf einen Haufen.

http://www.golddrivers.com/

Le Metropole Members,

Served at The Hemingway Table:

ELLIOTT WAVE GOLD UPDATE IV

By Alf Field

"In August 2003 I published an Elliott Wave forecast for
gold which suggested that the target for the peak of the
first major wave of the new gold bull market was $630.
This target was affirmed in subsequent articles, the most
recent being "Elliott Wave Gold Update III" published 24
October 2004. Recent developments have necessitated a
revision of the wave count. There is now a possibility
that the target of $630 could be exceeded, possibly by a
wide margin, depending on price action over the next
few weeks."

Gold and silver technical analysis day at The Cafe.

SUMMARY

- The large increase in the magnitude of impulse waves in the gold market over the past 6 months has necessitated the revision of the price target for the peak of the first major up-wave in the new bull market.

- The old target of $630 has been abandoned and a new target of circa $768 has been estimated.

- There is a possibility that the market is about to start a “3rd of 3rd” wave, implying a strong up-move of at least $90 (to $630) without a significant correction. This level should be followed by a 4%-5% correction to $600.

- On the way to $768 there should only be the 4-5% correction just mentioned, an 8-9% correction and two further 4-5% corrections. After achieving the approximate $768 first major peak, the gold bull market should experience the first major correction, which should be in the range of 20%-25%.

- The above bullish expectations are predicated on the assumption that the recent correction from $572.1 (2 Feb) to $538.7 (16 Feb) is the minuette correction of about 4-5% expected at this time. The correction to date is 5.8%.

- If the current correction declines below $538.7 basis London PM Fixings by more than a few dollars, it would probably nullify the immediate bullish case and require a return to the drawing boards to reassess the situation.

- The correction from $572.1 to $538.7 is just $1.70 from an exact 38.2% correction of the prior $83.1 up-move, a classic Elliott relationship. Also the two minor down waves in the correction are almost the same size, another common relationship. These facts support the notion that the correction is complete and that the 3rd of 3rd strong up-wave should follow immediately.

- It is possible that there may be further sideways action in the correction (e.g. to form a “flat”), but the parameters remain the same. A significant decline below $538.7 sends us back to the drawing boards while a clear upside break above $572 would indicate an onset of the 3rd of 3rd strong up-move.

A typical correction reaches the low of the previous 4th wave correction which, in the above forecast is at $600, midway between the above two numbers, so $600 should be a reasonable target for the big correction to follow the $768 peak.

Alf Field

19 February 2006

February 20 – Gold $555.70 up $3.90 - Silver $9.52 up 12 cents

Gold And Silver Surge In Overseas Trading ... PapaOom Gold Cartel!

Do not go where the path may lead. Go instead where there is no path and leave a trail...

Ralph Waldo Emerson

GO GATA!!!

A quickie MIDAS for you on this US holiday with a bunch of goodie tidbits.

Both gold and silver followed through in textbook fashion of the perfect technical market readying itself for a romp to the heavens. Nervousness over the oil situation in Iran was a mitigating positive factor ... with gold and silver rallying more than oil itself.

The AM Fix was $556 and the PM Fix was $554.50.
The silver Fix was way up there at$9.54.

The platinum correction appears over too as it took off to the tune of $20 to $1024.

Guten Morgen

Ich schaetze mal man versucht heute wieder den PoG unter die 550 USD kurzfristig zu druecken. Asia hat nicht reagiert letzte Nacht, die Cabals hatten einen Feiertag. Heute sind sie jedoch wieder am Werk mit ihren schmutzigen tricks der manipulation.

Hier mal etwas anderes, ist kein Wunder das viele Analysten davon reden das Gold auf 2000 USD steigen wird in wenigen Jahren.
Was man fuer 2000 USD dann bekommt ist eine andere Frage.

http://www.obsceneprophets.com/

Fear, the Mother of Violence

Rodney C. Cook, Ph.D.

The mother of violence walks amongst us. The first hint of fear in the financial markets could be seen last May. So I wrote our subscribers and reiterated my bullish position on gold for the first time in a year and a half. But this fear smells distinctively different and I feel compelled to bring forward a discussion of something truly obscene. After all, so much of what were mere expectations a few short years ago are now mainstream financial news. So my opinions had moved from obscene to downright respectable. But speaking about what I see for the next few short years will keep me lonely at cocktail parties once again:

A catastrophic burst in the global bubble in human capital. Perhaps I should take a lesson from the maestro and speak with obscurity: “While this offers a perspective from which the effervescent elixir of tiny financial bubbles can be better understood and leveraged to improve personal sovereignty, and to establish a position from which fear and passivity dissolve as action takes precedent, it does little to instill hope for the vast majority of the stakeholders in global society.” Yes, much better than: “Yer gonna die sukka.”

The immediate and instinctive reaction to fear in financial realms is denial. But this may be ending as the fear that is beginning to be reflected in gold appears visceral. Simply put, it may well be the collective fear of death. A simple graph of world population would reveal that the number of humans has gone parabolic. If you removed the labels, all breeds of financial technical analysts would concur. A crash is inevitable if not imminent. So is the bubble in human capital is about to burst? How could this be?

An extensive discussion of population dynamics and carrying capacity would reveal much but leave us with just a few important take home lessons. The intrinsic growth rate underlying the exponential increase in the human population is constant and most argue that we have been able to maintain this rate of growth because we have been able to increase the carrying capacity of our world through innovation. This innovation takes many forms: all to increase the sophistication that we as individuals and societies use to improve our lot. But nothing is more critical than innovative social organization. Simply put, without our global efficiencies many would die. But is innovation sufficient?

My expectation is that innovation will be increasingly insufficient for highly centralized systems. Perhaps this fear in the market reflects a growing concern of the collective that Malthus was right and worse case scenarios for peak oil will play out. In that case the number of individuals for which innovation will be sufficient will be considerably limited. So regardless of the mechanism, if the grim reaper’s shadow is cast, the collective mind should begin to exhibit fear proportional to the magnitude of the menace. This should be revealed first in the markets.

My past writings have been guided by Kondratieff. Those of us that have correctly used the long cycle to strategically manage our investments and our lives have done quite well. But the recent run up in precious metals has surprised most analysts and investors with uncharacteristic signs of strength. A few of the more astute have noticed subtle signs of strength that are excessive even for those expecting a violent return to honest money; signs that a parabolic forcing function perhaps a full order of magnitude stronger than the typical K wave has entered the market. If so, gold reaching parity with the Dow would be at the lower end of the range of probable outcomes. Nearly all scenarios for gold above this level include a significant role by the horsemen in reducing excess human capital.

This possibility has emerged from an effectively zero likelihood as we routinely continued to hone the quantitative discipline in our precious metals updates. Digging deeper to determine the best strategies for capitalizing on the primary trend, a consistency in ours and others’ observations led us to pose a series of testable hypothesis. While admittedly these tests were tenuously cast and have low statistical power, we have consistently failed to reject the hypothesis that the freaking wheels are gona come off this suckka way fast. If the bounce off the 50 dma these past few days holds, then we fail to reject once again. And while the likelihood would still remain very low, our concern would grow. Even a fairly dramatic and sustained pullback would not cause us return our expectation to zero.

Subtle clues give this fear a likely time frame by consistently offering premiums to gold shares with particular profiles. Our investigations into established and emerging strategies for share selection have offered provisional evidence that is additionally disturbing. Shares with significant low cost production and short term potential for significant production have been uncharacteristically strong while participation by junior explorers has been sporadic with money flows easily explained by the attention offered by the established gold community. So is big new money is the scared money? This is interesting, as the gold community has more than its fair share of the paranoid. But it seems that the market is not as comfortable as it should be with risk. Again the data are weak as this could just be the normal rotation, but my concern will grow if ounces that will not be out of the ground in a fairly short time period are discounted as if they may never see the light of day.

So the action in precious metals may become more important as a prophet of obscene events than for the realization of obscene profits. Much is being revealed and it will be prudent for us all to adjust our strategies for life accordingly.
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Hier ist ein Beitrag der Silberinfo:

GOLD AND SILVER EXPLOSION AHEAD:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/silberinfo022006.html

Hi Edel

Klar es geht im Zick-Zack weiter nach oben.
Skeptisch sind immer einige Leute, der Markt ist einfach zu volotile.
Wer schlau war hat seine Chips schon vorher gesetzt.
Es ist noch nicht zu spaet auf den Rohstoffboom Zug einzusteigen.
Konsolidierungen sollten ausgenutzt werden um entweder aufzustocken oder Profite in physisches Gold und Silber umzutauschen.
Dann hat man es zumindest im Safe, der Rest liegt noch im Boden bei den PM Aktien. Was man hat ,das hat man !.

Ich wuensche Euch einen guten Handelstag, egal wie der nun heute ausgehen wird.
Es wird sicher so kommen wie wir es vermuten, die Finanzblasen werden platzen. Waere ja noch schoener wenn jeder seine Probleme einfach wegdrucken $$$$ kann.
Viele haben es versucht, jeder ist gescheitert.
Das geht bestimmt nicht gut, es kommt wieder alles als Inflation zurueck.
Wie sich Inflation auf den PoG/PoS auswirken wird wissen wir ja.

Sichert Euch ab, ...Go for Gold und Silver.

MfG

Eldo

Ps. So einen Esel koennen wir sicher alle gebrauchen.
Der andere ist Ben Bernanke, da kommt nur Klopapier oder Confetti raus.

Ich denke, wir werden ein paar Wochen im Zickzack seitwärts laufen und es wird einen zähen Kampf zwischen PM-Bullen und dem Kabal geben.

Was uns gelassen bleiben lässt: Jeden Tag wird das physische Material ein wenig knapper.

Eine echte Explosion nach oben würde die Ag-ETF-Zulassung auslösen.

...vielleicht interessiert sich jemand für Short Positions in Canada-Aktien

http://www.canada.com/national…data/short_positions.html

linar

Linar das ist eine interessante Tabelle, thanx !
Was du alles so findest.

... sagt heute Stephan Bogner:

Stephan Bogner...

Der schönste Satz von ihm:

Zitat

Fasten your seat-belts, the silver rocket is on its way to the moon (home) now.

Lustig ist Bognair mit ... ""wo das Reiseziel vom PoG und PoS ist"".

Seines ist Dubai

Mal schaun obs zutrifft , wenn ja dann kauf ich einen drink fuer ihn .

Thanks Bognair

Cheers

XEX

Auf zum Mond, bitte alle einsteigen !

Silver Stock Report
February 21, 2006
by Jason Hommel

http://www.silverstockreport.c…_avoid_pump_and_dump.html

...wen's interessiert - wurde ja schon öfters über ihn geschrieben

linar

Der Jason muss ja was heiliges sagen zu ""pump and dump"".

It wasn't me.....

Hier was anderes zu den Thema:

Here are a couple of suggestions, we are in no way stating that these suggestions encompass everything one needs to know about trading but they can seriously help you on your way to becoming a better trader/investor.

All popular magazines, news articles and TV stations should be used only for getting information on what you should not do, in other words if they tell you its time to buy technology its time to get ready to sell. If they tell you the market looks like they are going to crash, we are probably close to a bottom etc

Spend time learning the basics of TA and the almighty time-tested principle of Trend analysis.

Have a plan. Don't be a fool and sit there wishing for that one huge win; those that do so, always catch a falling dagger.

The plan should include profit targets on each and every trade, plus and this very important, an exit plan, in case the trade does not work out.

more....
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/tacinv022006.html

Ich wollte mich nur bei KR und Eldorado für ihre letzten Beiträge, in dem sie auf meinen letzten Beitrag eingegangen sind, bedanken.

Ich erspare es euch, im Detail darauf einzugehen ... nur zwei Dinge:

Ich kann mich nicht erinnern, dass ich den Goldmarkt gleich dem ex-NM gesetzt habe ... mir sind nur einige "Parallelen" im "Verhalten" usw. zu dem damaligen Hype aufgefallen. Ich habe auch keinen besonderen "NM- oder Internethype-Schaden" erlitten ... mein "Lehrgeld" hatte ich schon ca. 10 Jahre zuvor gezahlt ...

Das Barometer-Projekt finde ich schon sehr interessant ... ich hatte irgendwo ("Neuronale Netze"??) ja angemerkt, dass ich den Thread gelesen habe ... und aufgrund dessen dort auch einen "Vermerk" (bzgl. Erbengeneration etc.) "hinterlassen" ...
Das ich mich dort zu einer "Mitarbeit" aufdringen hätte müssen/sollen, war mir nicht bewusst ... ist auch nicht meine Art

Und ihr wolltet noch ein "Argument" nachgeliefert haben:
Ich hatte ja schon mehrfach erwähnt, dass ein (durchaus glaubwürdiger) Experte erwähnt hatte, dass der "exorbitante" Anstieg des POG im November 2005 bis Ende Dezember 2005 von nur 2 japanischen Handelshäusern "initiiert" wurden war (Ringhandel??) ...
Und weiter, dass mir immer noch niemand sagen kann, wie ein (Spot-)Goldkurs in die Charts von z.B. Kitco gerät ... wo doch kein "Handelssystem" (börsenähnlich) existiert und Kurse (Schlüsse) ähnlich dem Telefonhandel ganz "unöffentlich" und nur bilateral zw. Käufer und Verkäufer zustandekommen ... trotzdem bieten Reuters und nochwer "Kurse" (???) oder "Preise" (???) an ... von denen nix und niemand anscheinend weiss, was "dahinter steckt" ... oder kann mir mal einer den "Weg" eines solchen (angeblichen) "Kurses" en detail erklären ... ?

Sicher gibt es (halbwegs) "authentische" Daten von den Terminmärkten etc. ... aber mich interessiert die "Basis" ("Klumpengold") und was an diesem Markt los ist ...

Grüsse
Quentchen

Zitat

Original von Quentchen
Ich wollte mich nur bei KR und Eldorado für ihre letzten Beiträge, in dem sie auf meinen letzten Beitrag eingegangen sind, bedanken.

Hallo Quentchen,

also bei mir gibts da nix zu danken! Immerhin hast Du es ziemlich gut aufgenommen.

Zitat

Das Barometer-Projekt finde ich schon sehr interessant ... ich hatte irgendwo ("Neuronale Netze"??) ja angemerkt, dass ich den Thread gelesen habe ... und aufgrund dessen dort auch einen "Vermerk" (bzgl. Erbengeneration etc.) "hinterlassen" ...
Das ich mich dort zu einer "Mitarbeit" aufdringen hätte müssen/sollen, war mir nicht bewusst ... ist auch nicht meine Art

Da kann jeder mitmachen, und ich habe Dir auch für Deinen Beitrag gedankt. Es muss aber niemand mitmachen und ich hoffe, Du kannst meine unerhebliche Meinung mit etwas Abstand betrachten. Wenn Du mitmachen willst, gerne!

Zitat

Und ihr wolltet noch ein "Argument" nachgeliefert haben:

Dazu iss für mich heute schon zu spät. "Watt" raffe ich noch, selbst im Schlaf, aber der POG ...

Zitat

"Klumpengold"

Grüße retour

vom KR