Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Hmm, Edel Man,


    ich bin mir noch nicht vollkommen sicher, will noch den Freitag und Montag/Dienstag sehen.


    By the way, habe ich schonmal - betr.: Charting - SMSC erwähnt?


    http://stockcharts.com/def/ser…=public&cmd=show&disp=RED
    ... und dann den 4. auf der Liste, SMSC = Steven M. Swink, hat früher
    (bis 2003/04) häufig auf gold-eagle gepostet und editorials geliefert.
    gehörte dann - wie ich - zu den "Dissidenten", obwohl er im Nachhinein - recht
    hatte - der Markt gab ihm Recht. Er postet gelegentlich wieder, hat in den letzten Monaten auch bei den Editorials wieder etwas abgeliefert.


    Er hat ca 380++ Charts aus dem PM - Bereich (die ersten 30/40
    PM - index/marktbezogen, danach nur PM-Companies)


    Gruss


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von germoney ()

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Moin,gutso / germoney


    Schon Goethe wußte bei Faust:


    Gerettet ist das edle Glied/
    Der Geisterwelt vom Bösen:/
    Wer immer strebend sich bemüht,/
    Den können wir erlösen! :]


    Aber ganz sicher meinte er nicht unser Streben nach dem Besseren an der Börse. ;)


    Bei der Suche,irgendeinem Optimum nahe zu kommen,sind Charts sehr hilfreich.
    Jedoch eher für Trader,um Ein-und Ausstiegspunkte besser zu finden.


    Den Langfristinvestor kümmert das weniger primär,da ist der Weg das Ziel.


    Doch zur Verbesserung des Ergebnisses werden öfter irgendwo topnahe Gewinne gesichert und mal reinvestiert.


    Da sind solche Darstellungen, wie die folgende,hilfreich--danke für den interessanten Link,germoney.


    Grüsse
    Edel Man

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Frank E.Holmes,Chef von U.S.Global Investors,mit lesenswerten Überlegungen.



    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes062006.html


    "...Chasing performance or trying to guess tops and bottoms in share prices can be both emotionally and financially draining...." :]


    "....Investor psychology suggests that investors are more comfortable buying a stock after it has moved up and are more willing to sell when it declines sharply :). Many investors use the 200 day and the 50 day moving average to make their decisions, however, this simple process can be problematic when the sectors are more volatile. We believe it is wiser to use dollar-cost averaging and set limits on exposure to any asset class and rebalance annually to catch, not chase volatility."


    8)

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Auf die grandiosen Aden Sisters haben wir lange warten müssen.


    Für mich ein relativ sicheres Anzeichen,daß auf längere Sicht die Zitterpartie beim Gold vorbei ist. ;)


    Neben Sinclair mE. die unerschütterlichsten Goldoptimisten,mit stetem Blick auf den Langfristtrend.


    Immer eine echte Freude für Goldbugs. :]



    "....Most important, this is a major, mega trend and it’s going to take time, so don’t get discouraged or impatient. As long as this major bull market stays in force, plan to stay on board and we think you’ll be glad you did." :)



    http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1150988460.php



    Grüsse

    Wusste garnicht, dass es dieses Revolverblatt noch immer gibt.


    @Edel: Wie war das mit dem sehgeschwächten Geflügel? :D

    Grüße
    Silberfuchs


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "Stirbt ein Bediensteter während einer Dienstreise, so ist damit die Dienstreise beendet."
    (Kommentar zum Bundesreisekostengesetz)


    So,
    & weil mir die Pink-Sheet-Nachkauferei jetzt endgültig auf die Nüsse gegangen ist (keiner rückt mehr was raus, in USA läuft praktisch kaum mehr was übern Counter, seit über einer Woche, - nicht mal überteuert), hab ich heute morgen mal ein bescheidenes physisches Fundament gelegt, mit dem Restgeld, das eigentlich fürs Bottom-Fishing gedacht war.


    Bin ich gespannt!


    Gruss,
    gutso

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    "Einige Gedanken über die heftige Korrektur des Goldes."


    Doug Casey mit ruhigen Betrachtungen über die Gründe.
    Kritik über die unerfahrenen Hedgefundmanager, die 1970 noch "Männchen malten." :D


    Letztlich ist er überzeugt,daß der Fall vorbei ist.


    Grüsse
    Edel Man



    "...It's unwise to try picking tops and bottoms in the market. But, the way I see it, gold has made its bottom as you read this. The fundamentals haven't changed; there's only been a swing in traders' sentiments.


    As for the gold stocks. We're still in the "Wall of Worry" stage of the market. The larger public is not involved, and the thin slice that is, is just moving with the price of the metal. The downdraft has been aggravated by the weakness in the NY market. Remember, gold stocks do best when both gold and stocks are rising and worst when both are falling.


    My guess is that now, after losing perhaps 25-30%, the big selling is over. :) The stocks will drift through summer, and the game will be on again come the fall. You should use this time to pick through the wreckage and put in stink bids on the issues likely to lead the market back...". :]


    ".... Meanwhile, patience, steady nerves and a focus on loading up on the best of the best at bargain prices will win the day."


    8)



    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey062306.html

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Kurz gehaltene Analyse der beiden Edelmetalle und über die Bodenbildung.



    http://www.goldcolony.com/viewarticle.asp?articleid=10103

    Moin Edel,


    ich denke auch, dass die Bodenbildung bei ~ 575 erreicht war. Es geht ja schon wieder hoch. Wenn irgend jemand, der bei hohen Kursen in den achtziger Jahren eingestiegen ist, seine Barren oder Münzen verkaufen wollte, dann hat der das jetzt getan. Durch diese relativ große Korrektur dürfte der Markt stark ausgewaschen sein. Weil nämlich alle, die keine Nerven haben, in solchen Momenten verkauft haben dürften. Möglicherweise war es genau das, was die großen Player wollten.


    Zudem sehe ich aktuell keinen Anlass zu glauben, irgend welche gesetzten SLs würden bei leicht steigenden Kursen ausgelöst.


    1 trollfreien Tag


    wünscht KR :]

    Zeit ist der Freund von wunderbaren Unternehmen und der Feind von mittelmäßigen Unternehmen. Warren Buffett

    moin KR.


    Stichler :D

    Grüße
    Silberfuchs


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "Stirbt ein Bediensteter während einer Dienstreise, so ist damit die Dienstreise beendet."
    (Kommentar zum Bundesreisekostengesetz)

    Gold & Silver Accumulation Ramps Up


    Gold started the year at $515 per ounce. Gold peaked at $725/oz on May 12th. The gold ETF (GLD) started the year with 8.5 million ounces in its vaults. On the day of gold's peak, GLD had 11.4 million ounces. Gold has since tumbled $145/oz in 6 weeks, but curiously the assets of GLD have been rising as of late. In fact, GLD yesterday reached a new record high of ounces in the trust with over 11.7 million ounces.


    The same trend of "a declining metal price, but increased ETF assets" can be seen in the silver ETF (SLV). Silver started the year at $8.85/oz. It subsequently rose 70% to $15/oz, before correcting by $5.50 to near $9.50 an ounce. The silver ETF began life on April 28th with silver at $12.55/oz. The silver ETF reached a peak of 73 million ounces in its vaults around the time physical prices peaked. With the aforementioned sell-off, silver ETF assets declined to 67 million ounces, but have since begun heading back upwards to a near peak level of 72-73 million ounces in the trust.


    The continued accumulation of gold and silver ounces in the ETFs likely means that savvy individual and institutional investors (who are driven by fundamentals) are eagerly accumulating the metals after their sharp pull back - a bullish sign. At the same time, the price has been weak in all likelihood because leveraged black-box technical types at CTAs and hedge funds are liquidating. One could argue that gold and silver prices declining in spite of the ETFs building up ounces is a bearish sign; we, however, believe that ETF asset accumulation is evidence that long-term fundamental investors are flocking back to the metals in anticipation of a continuation of their multi-year bull market resuming. When the black-box precious metal selling by funds is over, we should again see gold and silver moving higher as the U.S. Dollar is shunned by global investors who realize the Fed has exhausted its ability to raise rates given that the residential real estate market in the U.S. is rolling over.
    (...nicht so richtig überzeugt von dieser Argumentation:rolleyes: von Gold und Silber schon ;) )


    http://www.321gold.com/editori…dge/texashedge062306.html


    linar :)

    Es ist besser auf den Füssen zu sterben, als auf den Knien zu leben.

    The Central Bank Gambit
    ....Gold took the brunt of the central banks’ attack. The price of gold is the outwardly public manifestation of
    inflation. By bringing down gold it was hoped that other commodities would be taken down as well, thus easing
    inflationary fears. But therein lies the Achilles Heel of the central banks, and what will ultimately prove their
    gambit to be unsound. Under a fiat currency system, the central banks are the undisputed masters of paper…
    but they are rather impotent when it comes to controlling the market for “real” things.     As such, there is little they
    can do to manipulate the markets for things like oil and copper – the markets for these commodities are just too
    big. Oil, for example, trades to the tune of six billion dollars per day and is too large for central banks to have
    any say over. The market for gold, on the other hand, is only 1/30th the size and the easiest commodity to
    manipulate in the short term. Furthermore, the central banks still have some gold in their vaults as added
    ammunition. So the game plan was simple: hammer gold and cause a selling panic in all commodities.
    Although some kind of correction may have been expected in commodities given the magnitude of their
    escalation in such a short period of time, the violence of it was orchestrated and in every which way intended
    and cajoled by central bank action........


    ......Be that as it may, investors in “real” things can take heart in the chart on the top of the next page:
    (siehe Dateianhang)


    In our opinion, this chart epitomizes the futility of the Central Bank Gambit. Merely looking at the upper black
    line, much has been made of the equity market turnaround in the past three years. It appears to be up 50%
    from the bottom; albeit, still down 18% from its 2000 peak. Nonetheless, it would seem that copious amounts of
    Fed liquidity have successfully reversed the ill-effects of the stock market crash of 2000. Chalk one up for
    monetary policy!
    The blue line, on the other hand, tells an altogether different story. This line measures the performance of the
    S&P 500 in inflation-adjusted Euros. Here the comeback has been much less impressive. In fact, there has
    hardly been a comeback at all. This is the performance that a foreign investor might see. A US equity market
    that is still flailing along the bottom, and down 42.5% from its peak to boot.
    Using gold as the “base currency” (appropriately, the gold line in the above chart), the performance of the US
    stock market has been even more dismal. The S&P still looks like it’s in freefall! Perhaps even more
    interestingly, the recent drubbing of gold in the past month (resulting in an ever so slight uptick in the S&P
    relative to gold) has hardly changed the picture at all. The S&P is still down almost 60% from its peak relative
    to gold...........


    ........In spite of recent feather pluming on inflation, we do not believe that central
    bankers are serious about pulling the reins on inflation at any cost. They may talk the talk, but when push
    comes to shove they won’t be able to walk the walk. Historically, central bankers have been chronic debasers
    of money over time. They are addicted to money-induced asset bubbles. Although the central banks don’t
    mind seeing gold and commodity prices crash, history shows that they have a soft spot for equity and housing
    markets. Nary has a crash ever occurred in these areas without the central banks turning on the spigots. We
    highly doubt it will be any different this time......


    One thing that central bank maneuvers have caused is a crash in global equity markets. If a financial crisis
    were to ensue as a result, we believe gold will once again shine.


    full story: http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/06-2006.pdf


    linar :)




    http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/06-2006.pdf

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Allmählich werden die Analysten mutig. Aber,denke schon,zu Recht:



    Gold Stocks Turn the Corner!


    By Mike Swanson
    June 22, 2006
    wallstreetwindow.com


    Finally we turned the corner in gold stocks. The trend is now UP ;)! The XAU and HUI closed above their resistance downtrend lines yesterday and, more importantly, both the XAU/gld and HUI/gld ratios did too. Over the past few years, more than anything else, the changes in the trend of THESE two indicators have been the most reliable signal of trend changes in the overall gold market.


    The last time we saw downtrends in the XAU and HUI reverse their course, both the XAU/gld and HUI/gld ratios snapped back. This was back in March after the March bottom. History is now repeating itself right in front of our eyes and that means we can expect to see gold stocks march higher over the next few weeks. The next resistance point on the XAU is in the 145-155 area. We'll likely get there sometime during July, then consolidate for a few weeks, before breaking out again at some point in August to launch the next big bull run.


    Yesterday's action was what I was looking for back in May. If you can remember, the XAU and HUI consolidated and began to trade in a very narrow range. It looked like it was going to break out. Instead both touched their resistance points and then fell straight down. BUT, this time we finally got the key breakout. And not only that, it has come after last week's bottom.


    When we look back at all of this action a year from now we'll be able to point to June the fourteenth as a key day for gold stocks. The day before, gold stocks and the metal closed on lows. Then on the fourteenth both gapped up on the open. Gold then plunged around 40 points while the XAU held up and finished strong going in to the close. That was the type of positive action you see at major bottoms for gold stocks. Knowing that this happened last week makes the downside very limited for getting in now or continuing to hold.

    Market Intervention
    Laying Off Risk - Derivatives Of Hell
    Douglas V. Gnazzo
    Jun 26, 2006


    ...............The market is a law unto itself and it will not be denied. The longer and harder that the primary trend of the market is manipulated by intervention, the larger and more powerful will the adjustment be when the market returns to its mean........;)


    long full story: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html


    ....hab es tatsächlich durchgelesen - von A bis Z, es lohnt sich, auch wenn "wir" schon (fast) alles wussten/wissen :D


    linar :)

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Ein bemerkenswerter Artikel von Monty Guild.


    Immerhin einer der einflußreichsten Vermögensverwalter und -Berater.
    Bitte den Verteiler am Schluß beachten,eindrucksvoll.


    Eng befreundet mit Superbull Sinclair,deshalb auch sehr in meiner "Gunst". :D


    Stelle ohne Kommentar den 1.Absatz herein:



    "In our last memo we mentioned that oil and gold were in a normal corrective period, which would lead to a buying opportunity. At the time we expected the buying opportunity to come within a few weeks. We still believe that the decline in gold and oil has pretty much run its course. The ultimate bottom for gold may have been reached :)and oil continues to stabilize in the high $60’s per barrel. There are many reasons why prices for both could rise dramatically in coming months...".


    http://www.guildinvestment.com/commentary/



    :]Grüsse
    Edel Man

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A