Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Zitat

Original von gutso
(...)
Ich habe zwar einen grossen Teil meiner gelaufenen Werte umgeschichtet, in solche die meiner Meinung nach Potential haben. Das war ok, auch wenn ich Esel einen Monat später meist billiger weggekommen wäre.

Aber der eigentliche Fehler war, das aus den Gewinnmitnahmen freigewordene Cash nicht wenigstens teils in physischem Material zu horten. Und auf dem Niveau jetzt sehe ich das gar nicht ein, etwas von den Werten zu verkaufen, um mich wenigstens etwas physisch einzudecken.
Du & Kaufrausch, ihr macht das so, habe ich mitbekommen.
Ich bisher nicht.

Aber man lernt ja dazu.
(...)

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So,
& weil mir die Pink-Sheet-Nachkauferei jetzt endgültig auf die Nüsse gegangen ist (keiner rückt mehr was raus, in USA läuft praktisch kaum mehr was übern Counter, seit über einer Woche, - nicht mal überteuert), hab ich heute morgen mal ein bescheidenes physisches Fundament gelegt, mit dem Restgeld, das eigentlich fürs Bottom-Fishing gedacht war.

Bin ich gespannt!

Gruss,
gutso

Moin Edel,

ich denke auch, dass die Bodenbildung bei ~ 575 erreicht war. Es geht ja schon wieder hoch. Wenn irgend jemand, der bei hohen Kursen in den achtziger Jahren eingestiegen ist, seine Barren oder Münzen verkaufen wollte, dann hat der das jetzt getan. Durch diese relativ große Korrektur dürfte der Markt stark ausgewaschen sein. Weil nämlich alle, die keine Nerven haben, in solchen Momenten verkauft haben dürften. Möglicherweise war es genau das, was die großen Player wollten.

Zudem sehe ich aktuell keinen Anlass zu glauben, irgend welche gesetzten SLs würden bei leicht steigenden Kursen ausgelöst.

1 trollfreien Tag

wünscht KR

moin KR.

Stichler

Gold & Silver Accumulation Ramps Up

Gold started the year at $515 per ounce. Gold peaked at $725/oz on May 12th. The gold ETF (GLD) started the year with 8.5 million ounces in its vaults. On the day of gold's peak, GLD had 11.4 million ounces. Gold has since tumbled $145/oz in 6 weeks, but curiously the assets of GLD have been rising as of late. In fact, GLD yesterday reached a new record high of ounces in the trust with over 11.7 million ounces.

The same trend of "a declining metal price, but increased ETF assets" can be seen in the silver ETF (SLV). Silver started the year at $8.85/oz. It subsequently rose 70% to $15/oz, before correcting by $5.50 to near $9.50 an ounce. The silver ETF began life on April 28th with silver at $12.55/oz. The silver ETF reached a peak of 73 million ounces in its vaults around the time physical prices peaked. With the aforementioned sell-off, silver ETF assets declined to 67 million ounces, but have since begun heading back upwards to a near peak level of 72-73 million ounces in the trust.

The continued accumulation of gold and silver ounces in the ETFs likely means that savvy individual and institutional investors (who are driven by fundamentals) are eagerly accumulating the metals after their sharp pull back - a bullish sign. At the same time, the price has been weak in all likelihood because leveraged black-box technical types at CTAs and hedge funds are liquidating. One could argue that gold and silver prices declining in spite of the ETFs building up ounces is a bearish sign; we, however, believe that ETF asset accumulation is evidence that long-term fundamental investors are flocking back to the metals in anticipation of a continuation of their multi-year bull market resuming. When the black-box precious metal selling by funds is over, we should again see gold and silver moving higher as the U.S. Dollar is shunned by global investors who realize the Fed has exhausted its ability to raise rates given that the residential real estate market in the U.S. is rolling over.
(...nicht so richtig überzeugt von dieser Argumentation von Gold und Silber schon )

http://www.321gold.com/editori…dge/texashedge062306.html

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The Central Bank Gambit
....Gold took the brunt of the central banks’ attack. The price of gold is the outwardly public manifestation of
inflation. By bringing down gold it was hoped that other commodities would be taken down as well, thus easing
inflationary fears. But therein lies the Achilles Heel of the central banks, and what will ultimately prove their
gambit to be unsound. Under a fiat currency system, the central banks are the undisputed masters of paper…
but they are rather impotent when it comes to controlling the market for “real” things. As such, there is little they
can do to manipulate the markets for things like oil and copper – the markets for these commodities are just too
big. Oil, for example, trades to the tune of six billion dollars per day and is too large for central banks to have
any say over. The market for gold, on the other hand, is only 1/30th the size and the easiest commodity to
manipulate in the short term. Furthermore, the central banks still have some gold in their vaults as added
ammunition. So the game plan was simple: hammer gold and cause a selling panic in all commodities.
Although some kind of correction may have been expected in commodities given the magnitude of their
escalation in such a short period of time, the violence of it was orchestrated and in every which way intended
and cajoled by central bank action........

......Be that as it may, investors in “real” things can take heart in the chart on the top of the next page:
(siehe Dateianhang)

In our opinion, this chart epitomizes the futility of the Central Bank Gambit. Merely looking at the upper black
line, much has been made of the equity market turnaround in the past three years. It appears to be up 50%
from the bottom; albeit, still down 18% from its 2000 peak. Nonetheless, it would seem that copious amounts of
Fed liquidity have successfully reversed the ill-effects of the stock market crash of 2000. Chalk one up for
monetary policy!
The blue line, on the other hand, tells an altogether different story. This line measures the performance of the
S&P 500 in inflation-adjusted Euros. Here the comeback has been much less impressive. In fact, there has
hardly been a comeback at all. This is the performance that a foreign investor might see. A US equity market
that is still flailing along the bottom, and down 42.5% from its peak to boot.
Using gold as the “base currency” (appropriately, the gold line in the above chart), the performance of the US
stock market has been even more dismal. The S&P still looks like it’s in freefall! Perhaps even more
interestingly, the recent drubbing of gold in the past month (resulting in an ever so slight uptick in the S&P
relative to gold) has hardly changed the picture at all. The S&P is still down almost 60% from its peak relative
to gold...........

........In spite of recent feather pluming on inflation, we do not believe that central
bankers are serious about pulling the reins on inflation at any cost. They may talk the talk, but when push
comes to shove they won’t be able to walk the walk. Historically, central bankers have been chronic debasers
of money over time. They are addicted to money-induced asset bubbles. Although the central banks don’t
mind seeing gold and commodity prices crash, history shows that they have a soft spot for equity and housing
markets. Nary has a crash ever occurred in these areas without the central banks turning on the spigots. We
highly doubt it will be any different this time......

One thing that central bank maneuvers have caused is a crash in global equity markets. If a financial crisis
were to ensue as a result, we believe gold will once again shine.

full story: http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/06-2006.pdf

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http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/06-2006.pdf

Market Intervention
Laying Off Risk - Derivatives Of Hell
Douglas V. Gnazzo
Jun 26, 2006

...............The market is a law unto itself and it will not be denied. The longer and harder that the primary trend of the market is manipulated by intervention, the larger and more powerful will the adjustment be when the market returns to its mean........;)

long full story: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html

....hab es tatsächlich durchgelesen - von A bis Z, es lohnt sich, auch wenn "wir" schon (fast) alles wussten/wissen

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Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Ein bemerkenswerter Artikel von Monty Guild.

Immerhin einer der einflußreichsten Vermögensverwalter und -Berater.
Bitte den Verteiler am Schluß beachten,eindrucksvoll.

Eng befreundet mit Superbull Sinclair,deshalb auch sehr in meiner "Gunst".

Stelle ohne Kommentar den 1.Absatz herein:

"In our last memo we mentioned that oil and gold were in a normal corrective period, which would lead to a buying opportunity. At the time we expected the buying opportunity to come within a few weeks. We still believe that the decline in gold and oil has pretty much run its course. The ultimate bottom for gold may have been reached :)and oil continues to stabilize in the high $60’s per barrel. There are many reasons why prices for both could rise dramatically in coming months...".

[URL]http://www.guildinvestment.com/commentary/[/url]

Grüsse
Edel Man

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Ich finde den Kommentar auch sehr lesenswert!

Äußerst selten verfolgt jemand den Gedankengang, daß wegen der Veränderungen der letzten Jahre in einer Reihe von Volkswirtschaften (vor allem in Asien) mit sehr hohem Wachstum die US-Wirtschaft nicht mehr der alleinige Nabel der Welt sei. Mainstream ist nachwie vor: "Schnupfen für USA = Lungenentzündung für den Rest der Welt"

Die positiven Einschätzungen über die Fähigkeiten der Zenralbanker kann ich zwar so nicht teilen, aber die zentralen Schlußfolgerungen in dem Artikel sind me. E. schon schlüssig.

UTI MF to launch gold fund
Source: IRIS (24 June 2006)

UTI Mutual Fund is launching a gold exchange traded fund. The fund house has filed a draft offer document for the same with the SEBI.

UTI Gold-ETF is an open-ended fund listed on one or more stock exchanges in the form of an exchange traded fund (ETF) tracking gold. The fund will be a passively managed one, designed to track the performance and yield of gold prices or gold-related instruments.

Each UTI Goldshare unit represents units of fractional undivided beneficial interest in the ownership of the underlying assets (i.e. gold) of the scheme.

The allotment price will be on the basis of the closing value of the gold price on the closure of new fund offer period. Subsequently, the authorised participants can deposit cash for creation of units or they can redeem units.

The prices of gold considered for the purchase of creation of units will be the prices on the day on which the bank is able to acquire gold from the market. Gold prices taken for redemption of units will be the prices on the next working day of redemption date.

In the beginning, each unit of UTI Goldshare will be equal to the price of one gram of the value of gold. Once the scheme reopens, issue and redemption of units will be linked to the prevailing net asset value.
http://www.myiris.com/newsCent…/24&secID=mf&code1=&code=

http://www.utimf.com/Investor_services/service_guide.asp
http://www.utimf.com/Aboutus/fund_manager.asp

...wird langsam etwas voll

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Fundamental (Geldmengen, Schulden Defizite) ist ohnehin klar, wohin die Reise geht.

Wofür dann noch Wellentheorien und Analystengeschwafel?.

Was geschehen soll, das wird auch geschehen.

Ein klein wenig Geduld muss man dennoch mitbringen.

Und seine GIER im Zaume halten

Wobei wir bei den zwei größten Problemen wären.

Und auch da helfen Wellentheorien und Analystengeschwafel nicht.

Edel Man

Sollte das Kursziel von Sinclair mit 1650US$/Oz. zu niedrig angesetzt sein, neige ich dazu Ihm das zu verzeihen glaube ich

Gruss

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseitenforum.de/images/avatars/avatar-731.jpg] [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/images/smilies/supi.gif]

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