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The John Brimelow Report

Time to buy (Thanks, FT)

Friday, April 16, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $10.72, PM $10.66, with world gold at $399.60 and $399. Enormous; far above legal import point. So too are the premiums over world gold indicated by the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Perhaps these were the influences which enabled gold to push over $400 in the early hours of the morning NY time.

With the yen stabilizing the flurry of interest on TOCOM is dying down. Volume dropped 42% to equal only 21,915 Comex lots, and open interest was static (up 107 Comex equivalent). (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 63,000 lots.)

Some of the dealer-commentators are beginning to temper their confidence in a further slide. Mitsui-Sydney says of yesterday:

"Again last night gold was pressured to the downside, what was noticeable was a mixture of fund buying & selling. Some perhaps thinking we have found a floor…"

A thought amplified by their London colleagues:

"Heavy fund selling has been the feature of the week for gold and silver. We estimate one fund has liquidated close to 2mio ozs of gold over the past few sessions. The market is however holding key technical levels. 396 area basis June was the break out point on March 12, we have a long term trend line coming in at 394.70 and thereafter we have the 200 day moving average at 391.

There has been two-way activity noted at the lows from the funds and…Further support is coming from buoyant physical demand…."

A few of the technicians are also having second thoughts. Yesterday the JPMorgan Securities "Metals & Energy Technical Strategist" shorted gold:

"Short Gold at 397 risking 403 targeting 380"

Today they sound rueful:

"a move back through 401 would suggest a squeeze could develop towards 407/410 before renewed weakness sets in…We suggested selling at market yesterday just in case the trendline break saw a rush of selling, but I guess in hindsight we have seen a big move already."

Over the last couple of days, gold has been exhibiting the hall-mark signs of a large Predator short seller in position, with see-offs being seen after the London AM fix, before the Comex open, on the open, and particularly on the Comex close. Judging by the physical premiums, retreating from this short might be awkward.

Notably falling silent is a noted gold bear, who merely circulated this morning’s euphoric FT anti gold editorial. See:

http://news.ft.com/servlet/Con…420385759&p=1012571727126

I will not be publishing on Monday.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW plods along. It gained 55 to 10,452, while the DOG slipped below 2000 to 1996, down 6.

The US economic news was sub-par:

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.2 percent in March, the first decrease in 10 months, as factories made fewer cars and warm weather depressed utility output, a report from the Federal Reserve showed.

The drop in production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities was the first since May and followed a revised 0.8 percent increase in February, the Fed said in Washington. The proportion of industrial capacity in use fell to 76.5 percent in March from a revised 76.7 percent the month before.

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell this month as gasoline prices rose to a record and violence intensified in Iraq. The third-warmest March weather in 110 years depressed utility production and boosted housing starts to the biggest increase in almost a year.

The reports show the U.S. economy still has pockets of weakness that may keep the Federal Reserve from being quick to raise its benchmark interest rate, economists said. Policy-makers should wait for ``at least a little more confirmation of the apparent strength in the economy,'' said Alfred Broaddus, president of the Fed Bank of Richmond, in a speech this morning. –END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal reserve added $4.75 Billion in repos today April 16th 2004, an action that moved the repo pool back down a bit to $31.33 Billion and continued the sluggish up turn in its 30-day moving average. This pattern of choppy repo pool 30-day ma movements instills a feeling that the Fed is still worried about a runaway up surge in the DOW so they are being very cautious.

My DIVG prediction is shaping up as the two data points placed since it was made fall a bit below the 353 dwell level (349.50 and 350.7) and today's DIVG looks as if it will fall above yesterday's. I'm expecting it to cluster around 353 through next week.

IF my guess that the Fed is using cardinal dwell points in its retreat tactics is true, then the next move up should come late next week and the DIVG target for the up move is 383, an 8.5% move from 353.

I am also assuming that the Fed has cooked up some sort of method to keep the dollar from falling below 87 (MCDI). It has held there since November. Under this scenario gold will move up 8.5% from 398 where it was yesterday to a level of $431 per ounce or at the 383 DIVG dwell level. This new level for gold should hold for a while and the next down move in the DIVG should be to a cardinal level (363,373 ...).

All this is informed speculation based upon the odd, man-made DIVG trading pattern and the conspicuous linear up move in the DIVG 200-day ma which can only be judges as a retreat in progress by the Fed.

As the Fed retreats in today's gold war we ought to see even more evidence like the Rothschild's LBMA departure come to the fore front.
Mike

From the well researched King Report last evening (Bill King is one sharp fella, as you all must know by now):

The March Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 36.05 (28.25 exp.) Prices paid rose to a record 56.2. But the Future Index fell to 48.9 from 53.

The Philly Fed (32.5) was better than expected (24.2) but the components contradicted the composite index. Both prices paid (-2.5) and prices received (an unfathomable 9.9 fall) signify weakness. Furthermore the employment index fell 0.1 and the workweek fell sharply to 10.4 from 17.9. One intractabull economist called the 0.1 decline in the employment index "consistent with growth in manufacturing employment."

-END-

But there is no inflation:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - H&R Block Inc., the largest U.S. tax preparer, on Friday said U.S. tax preparation and related fees rose 5.7 percent from a year earlier to $1.8 billion for the quarter ended March 31. –END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hi Bill:

Some comments on the Commitment of Traders data released this afternooon.

First point of notice is that the CFTC reports this week's release will only include the positions thru Monday, April 12, of this week instead of the usual Tuesday. Seems there was a problem with one of the major Futures Commission Merchants in reporting the data to CFTC. Regardless, we have one less day to work with to get a glimpse into the internals of the metals.

In all honesty, the COT data is really not of much use to us at this point due to the missing day since it is Tuesday of this week that witnessed the first huge sell off to hit the gold pit taking it down some 15.00 on the day before recovering slightly on the close. I would prefer to see what percentage of the fund longs bailed out and how many shorts the cartel lifted as of that day. I suspect it was a significant number since open interest data from the exchange showed a drop of some 10,000 contracts on the Tuesday sell off. Still, even with the missing day, we can see that the fund longs began to get out and take some money off the table (good for them as the power uptrend line was broken last week) ditching 1710 long positions.

What is really interesting to see is that the fund short category was busy increasing their positions by the tune of 3,847 new shorts. That same category actually was forced to cover their shorts the previous week as gold spiked the 433 level. Apparently however, they decided that they would try the short side once again. Those new fund shorts have been added between the 418 - 425 price level. That will bear close attention as these guys will run, unlike the cartel, on any subsequent price rallies thru that region if they fail to cover into this current bout of weakness. Those new shorts will only serve as fuel for the fire and I personally am glad to see them put on.

The cartel actually began reducing their obscene short position and covered 4,137 positions. It was the fund category then that was doing the bulk of the selling from last Tuesday, April 7 thru Monday of this week. I do not know if the cartel launched the initial raid that clocked gold on Tuesday and Wednesday - until we get the CFTC data next Friday we simply have no way of ascertaining this but I do think it is significant that the cartel actually reduced their short positions. If I were to guess, I would think that they have been covering more of those shorts into this recent sell off and that their overall number of shorts is therefore declining. There is no reason for them to change a previous strategy and methodology that has worked so well for them in the past. It could very well be that as they exited their shorts, the fund category came in and took their place albeit at a slower pace than the fund longs were exiting. Next week's release therefore will be very significant if it shows a continued build in the fund short category since those positions will have been added at these low price levels. Gold has a habit of punishing those who not only buy strength but who also sell weakness. This group will be forced out at a loss on any subsequent rally action especially if the funds foolishly added to their shorts on this recent sell off.

In regards to the total Open Interest figures since last week. Today's release by the exchange of the open interest totals thru Thursday show we are currently at 269,943 open positions in gold; down from last Thursday when total open interest was 306,643 and gold closed at 420.70. Yesterday's close at 398.30 is a whopping - $22.40 down from that level and the result of massive long liquidation that brings us back to the levels we were at on March 19 when gold closed at 413.70 before open interest began its upward surge sending the metal to the recent 433 peak.

One thing stands out to me in looking at these numbers right away and there is no way to say it except to be blunt - a bunch of guys ended up buying gold on strength and selling it into weakness. Talk about a major blunder. COT picked their pockets clean. A significant number of those new long positions that were put on above that 413.70 level were covered yesterday below 400! Those positions were put on Monday, March 22, when gold gapped up hitting a high of 420 and closing just beneath that level. From that point on, open interest soared and unless those new longs learned to respect trendlines, they simply donated to the college fund of the kids whose parents make up the gang of professional thieves we now "fondly" refer to as the gold cartel. That is what I call a painful experience and why buying gold on strength can be hazardous to one's financial health and why trendline breaks must be respected.

I am constantly reminding those who write me to keep in mind that the gold market does not trade like other markets where buying price breakouts normally is a pretty safe bet. The reason - gold is a managed market and unless one knows what GATA knows, they are going to lose money at it every time. COT is just lurking there like the sharks that they are waiting to feed. We will beat them by refusing to play their game, selling some into strength and adding on into selloffs such as took place this week.

By the way, for those who follow the hourly charts, gold gave us a buy signal on that time frame with this morning's action. Now we need to see how the daily is going to shape up come next week. I look for some consolidation action and base building once again before gold resumes the next leg up; a range trade or chop between 396-405. We will need to see the daily chart turn the oscillators up from an oversold region to commence the next leg.
Dan Norcini

The way it is:

Bill, let me see if I got this right:

To save a decimated US economy, the Fed tries to pump it up by printing money. The printed money causes inflation but the Fed doesn’t want anybody to know about it so they suppress the gold price and lie about their data. But now the bubbles are not just bubbles, but affect all basic necessities -- prices for food, gas, housing, health care and education are exploding. Creating more lies and more resolve to keep control of the earth's oil supply.

As the article below on derivatives now argues, if inflation gets to the point where they have to raise interest rates that could trigger the interest rate derivative debt bomb that you've been talking about all along. Read the last four paragraphs.

I'm moving back to the farm. I'll keep an extra room for you if you need it.

Best,

Chuck

AP: Derivatives Dealers Warned On Exposure

Dealers warned on exposure

Source: FINANCIAL TIMES

When derivatives dealers from around the world gathered last week in Chicago for their annual meeting, the mood was mostly one of self- congratulation.

Conference attendees were told that risk exposure to derivatives was falling as transactions were increasingly secured with collateral, and that the US economy had benefited from the derivatives market.

"Hedging risk promotes economic growth," said Keith Bailey, the chairman of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

Still, some market observers have begun to worry that too much risk has become concentrated among too few dealers, who act as counter-parties on derivative transactions.

Patrick Parkinson, an associate director on the Federal Reserve Board's research and statistics division, said that he was concerned about the exposure of broker-dealers to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance providers that are among the world's biggest users of interest-rate derivatives.

If either Fannie or Freddie were to "fail", their collapse could also bring down one of the major dealers, he said.

Interest rate derivatives comprise the biggest segment of the derivatives market. Although growth has slowed over the past year, the market has continued to expand, with some $142,300bn of notional volume outstanding at the end of 2003, according to ISDA.

The mortgage finance providers buy protection from dealers to help manage their interest rate risk. Last year, Fannie Mae increased its outstanding notional balance of derivatives by $384bn to $1,041bn - about 5 per cent of the total market.

The finance providers' top-notch creditworthiness - they have "AAA" credit ratings - mean that dealers do not need to secure their exposure to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac with collateral.

Bankers said that dealers were cautious in their transactions with the finance providers.

"We monitor risk to the government-sponsored enterprises very, very closely," said Kaushik Amin, co-head of global interest rate products at Lehman Brothers and an ISDA board member.

Still, Mr Parkinson's concerns echo those of economists at Credit Suisse First Boston.

They argued, in a report last month, that the enormous size of the interest-rate options market, and its concentration among a small number of dealers, meant it had become "a prime target to host the next financial crisis."

Three banks - JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup - dominate the market. The dealers sell more protection than they buy, but typically hedge - or lay off - the risk they assume by taking positions in the debt markets.

CSFB argues that in spite of the dealers' hedging, they remain exposed to interest-rate volatility because they need to rebalance their hedge positions when market conditions change.

"If interest rates change significantly - up or down - a prime candidate for amplifying the move will be interest-rate options, where the market has become huge [and] the risks concentrated," the CSFB economists said.

Copyright Financial Times Limited 2004.

Musings for the weekend:

Bill;

Being Friday, just wanted to share a portion of my laundry list of things I'm going to be thinking about all weekend. These are only the 'front burner thoughts'. Here she goes:

-Bundesbank head Weltke offers resignation - supposed scandal involving 'perks'

-IMF head Kohler's unexpected resignation (zero notice) days before crucial debt talks conclude with Argentina - to become German President

-Rothchilds exits gold business -makes me wonder if DeBeers will soon exit the diamond business and GM quit making cars

-American Barrick does an about face with regards to hedging when Blanchard case is sent to discovery stage

-V.P. of operations (Stuart Smith) at NYMEX has his office raided Jan 30 by Manhattan District Attorney Morgenthau (and immediately goes on paid administrative leave) and no details given as to why at all. NY Post atricle on the incident suggests that Smith is likely aiding in "some investigation" as opposed to being the subject of an investigation himself. This blows me away.

-Paul O'Neill (Treasury Secretary) fired - writes damning book on Bush administration and is a 'must read' by the way

-inflation becoming a major problem in every country in the world except it seems the good old USA

-highly questionable reporting of inflation data by official sources - has appearances of fraud

-unprecedented money creation by not only US but Japan as well

-US reclassifies gold reserves from "official reserves" to "custodial gold" and then to "deep gold"

-screwy book keeping in the SDR account of the US at the IMF - highly indicative of gold swaps

-Greenspan denies under oath the US/Fed even does gold swaps - could this be perjury?

-minutes released from Fed meeting where legal counsel is discussing "gold swaps"

-when questioned later legal counsel denies he said anything about gold swaps - claims it was a mistake

-elephant sized silver short at the COMEX

-Fed warns of systemic risk at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae due to their roughly 5 trillion combined derivatives books and what an adverse movement in interest rates could do to these books

-J P Morgan has a 37 trillion dollar but this is apparently ok?

Just wondering if anyone else out there thinks about these things like I do?

best

Rob

1. Teil

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Last night from MR on the Rothschilds affair:

Bill:

The more I have been thinking about the Rothschilds exiting the gold market, I am convinced that we are at a major turning point.

"In a world awash in debt and unsustainable fiat currencies subject to implosion, the power of gold and the preference of the Rothschilds to gold cannot be easily ignored. Could it be that the Rothschilds through their involvement in daily London gold trades are quietly amassing more of the precious metals in their private vaults, while the confidence game of the Central Banks tries desperately to avoid what Soros calls "unsustainable" fiat currency built on unsustainable debt? It was Mayer Amschel Rothschild who kept a secret subterranean vault full of gold beneath the House of Rothschild in Frankfurt in the 1770s "
(Morton, 1962)

My personal belief is that the Rothschilds are ducking out, prior to the currency-financial collapse so as not to be associated with it (I believe they are instrumental in causing it and have the most to gain). The Federal Reserve System has attacked gold relentlessly over the last several days resulting in an over $20 decrease on heavy volume. However, the open interest has not declined significantly. (Traders have not closed out long positions, but rather absorbed the short selling). This has been the case the last several times the FED has attacked gold trying to prevent a breakout of $430.

The very strong inflation numbers have made it imperative for the FED to maintain an appearance that gold's price is under control in the U.S. Most FED economists believe that the perception of inflation creates a cycle of more inflation as business and consumers attempt to acquire and hoard goods before their prices increase. This makes controlling perception the #1 priority. What a better way than to cap the gold price. Even the official massaged CPI number for March was an unexpectedly high 0.5% suggesting inflation of 6% per year. It is probably double digits in reality. The bond market is not as easily manipulated. It has declined precipitously, adding 60 basis points to the yield on the ten year in a very short span of time. Maybe the bond vigilantes are back! This has materially bumped up mortgage rates and will continue to be the trend.

The Rothschilds do not walk away from 261 years of history and domination of the gold market for no reason. Their official statement is absurd. As you are aware, the London Bullion Market which they chaired prior to yesterday's announcement is the largest physical gold market in the world exchanging 42 million ounces a day (168 billion dollars a day). They received a percentage of every transaction. Major changes are at hand and GATA is at the forefront!

Best Regards,

Marcus Rodriguez

Friday April 16, 4:57 PM

China to Reduce Gold Import Tariff

BEIJING, April 16 Asia Pulse - China is to adjust downward the tariffs on the import of gold, according to the Shanghai Non-Ferrous Metals Network.

The move is expected to further stimulate the consumption of gold in the country.

According to Zhang Yongtao, secretary-general of the China Gold Association, there will be a big reduction to the current 38 per cent tariff in order to attract foreign name-brand products to China. But he did not specify the amount of the tariff reduction.

Gold consumption has continued to rise in China, with that in 2003 reaching 207 tons. Although China has now become the fourth largest gold consuming country, the gold consumption level is still not high, Zhang said.

-END-

From a GoldEditor.com Interview with Fund Manager Ken Gerbino, who runs a money management firm based in Beverly Hills. Gerbino was the Founder and Chairman of the American Economic Council, the lobbying group established in 1979 and credited for the passage of the Gold Coin Act of 1984, which brought the American Gold Eagle Coin into being.

"The U.S. and Europe consume 11 grams of gold per capita annually…about a third of an ounce...and most of that is jewelry. When China catches up on a per capita basis it will be equal to 5 times the global mine production of gold annually! Even a 10 % demand increase over annual mine supply is huge in terms of the gold market…this will be 50 times that…and these numbers are mostly just for jewelry. This is what is coming. The Chinese currency was wiped out in the late 40's…so they know the value of gold as a currency also. The investment demand from China coupled with jewelry demand will change the gold equation for decades to come. Now lets be very logical here. The mining companies have to replace 84 million ounces of production from reserves each year. That's the equivalent of finding 17, five million ounce deposits a year. This is impossible. I've seen maybe one five million oz discovery in the last two years. So from a longer-term supply viewpoint a squeeze is developing as well."

-END-

London’s Peter Hambro has been a quiet GATA supporter for a long time. Great to see him receive this kind of press. He is a sharp guy and a class act. Good for him:

Investment Column: Gold's lure as safe haven makes Hambro a buy
Edited by Stephen Foley
16 April 2004

http://news.independent.co.uk/…nt/story.jsp?story=511912

-END-
On the FT gold article:

Hi Bill and Chris

I got this article from the Financial Times courtesy of Nick Laird of Sharefin Fame:

http://www.sharelynx.com/index2.php

"For private investors to hold gold on this basis is their own foolish affair. For central banks and governments to hold it as a reserve asset is a betrayal of the public on whose behalf they are acting."

-Financial Times 16 April 2004

So there you have it, it is now official: only the traitorous central bankers would hold on to their gold; real central bankers, those central bankers with a sense of fiduciary responsibility to their country, will get rid of their gold as fast as they can and buy other centrals bankers paper with the proceeds, or so said the FT on 16 April 2004. I'm glad they are on the record. The press does leave a paper trail a mile wide, and if one should investigate their past recommendations, they have marked many significant turns for markets.

This shrill FT article reminds me of the Barron's "Annual Round Table" headline in early January of 1973, which by the way included the wisdom of George Soros. It read in 1973, and I quote: "Not a Bear Among Them." That week was THE top in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), using my weekly Friday closing price data. Every Barron's Round Table expert had it wrong.

Not one of them saw what was coming their way, the second worse bear market since 1920! What the head line should have said was "Not a Bear Among Them-Yet!" Starting the very next week (on a weekly closing price basis) the DJIA went from 1,047.49 on 05 January 1973 to 577.6 on 06 November 1974, a decline of -44.85%. A similar decline from today's closing price 10,397.46 would place the Dow at 5,734.20.

Business week has that famous cover picture with a tombstone saying Wall Street RIP in the spring of 1982 just 2 or 3 months before the most significant bull market in the 20th century in stock started. I also believe it was Business Week that had a big story on what an excellent and profitable future biotech was going to have around 1991 or 92. They were wrong, or at least wrong if some one had a year or two horizon. So, if someone didn't mind losing over 50% of their capital or didn't find it annoying to wait 7 or 8 years for their investment in biotech to start paying off, Business Week hit this market right on the nose!

But as I recall the FT has been the expert on calling the turn in gold in the past. If I am not mistaken, and I don't think I am, it was the FT that had a very bearish article on gold in 1993, just before the last significant upturn in gold before this one. I am not saying that the FT is not an excellent publication, it is. What I am saying is that articles like this hysterical shrilling call to central banks to sell their gold tend to mark significant turns in a market, in the direction opposite to what fine publications like Barron's, Business Week and The Financial Times would have their readers believe. On the basis of this article alone, a true contrarian investor should feel comfortable about the precious metals for the next few years. Time will tell if the FT was right on the money yet again in the gold market.
Mark Lundeen

No confirmation on this, but word has it Fidelity is dumping loads of gold shares. Is that a major reason why the gold share action continues to stink up the place? Like always, they sold off late in the day. The HUI could only put in a gain of .68 to 212.56, while the HUI climbed .29 to 95.37.

Chuck checked in and put it best about the gold share action:

I am still puzzled how the gold stocks can close every day and especially on Fridays such as they did today. Who would panic in the last 30 minutes? Never see this in the stock market.
You wonder who is left in the gold camp? Chuck

You also have to wonder about the strange goings-on in the gold world. Ernst Welteke, the anti-gold leader of the Bundesbank, resigns under pressure from a Mickey Mouse scandal over a hotel bill. Rothchilds pulls out of the gold business. The French talk about gold sales. GFMS, the bullion dealer apologist gold company, comes out with a modestly bullish gold forecast, etc.

My take on it all is we are seeing the first signs of stress in the gold arena by those who know what was done to bullion all these years. The central bankers know how much more gold they really have left in their vaults via swaps/loans and how this information has been kept under wraps. With gold demand some 1500 to 1700 tonnes greater than mine and scrap supply, they know The Gold Cartel and other bullion dealers are going to hit the wall in the months/years ahead. They just won’t have enough physical to keep the gold price from exploding. They know the recent silver spike was no fluke because they have ALREADY hit the wall in silver. This will become apparent when silver makes new highs in the weeks/months ahead.

How the major gold and silver shorts are going to cover their positions without creating huge price spikes is anybody’s guess.

Glad this week is over. Better times ahead.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Appropriate letter to MSNBC:

Dear Editor:

So Mr. Greenspan wants the corporations to re-establish trust in the markets ("Greenspan Urges Restoration of Trust to Protect US Financial Market", April 16) by straightening out their ethics, and bookkeeping. Well what wonderful role models corporations have in Mr. Greenspan and the FED, and the US Federal Government (especially the Treasury). These institutions and their chief executives have for years been actively involved in 'influencing, supporting, making orderly' and in recent years flat out FIXING the markets. Through their departments and practices they interfere with the major stock indexes at key junctures, cap the precious metals markets, run the printing presses at prodigious rates, cancel 30 year government bonds, make extended and excessive rate cuts to manipulate interest rates, manage the financial news, mount astounding levels of debt, and constantly 'adjust' the official inflation and employment indicators to downplay any less than positive news. These unethical and unwise tactics remove the warning canaries from the economy, create bubbles in stocks, bonds, credit, housing, debt, the US dollar and substitute their personal views and goals for the discipline of the market. And then Greenspan has the audacity to tell corporations to clean up their act! Yes, we've been poorly served by many of our major corporations but the standard has been set by our federal government and the Federal Bank. The US public has been duped and misguided in the most important and fundamental ways by the latter, not the former.

Sincerely,
P. Ogden

Gold is not simply going to $480, it is heading into the final phase of this generational gold bull market to prices in excess of $1,500. I take no pride in saying what I know will come to pass because that is NOT good news for anyone. It is the failure of the world to come to terms with the varying perspectives that motivate great numbers of the inhabitants of this planet.

Jim Sinclair

http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp