Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Oh ja,

und die Diamonds bei XAU & HUI funkeln nun auch recht hell.
Bin ich gespannt was die Elliott Wave Fuzzys jetzt zu zählen beginnen, falls das ein nachhaltiger Ausbruch ist.

Die "Z von 99".

Grüsse,
gutso

Moin Edel und gutso!

Ja, die EW-Fans.

Gold fällt heute bestimmt noch auf 450 USD.

Man beachte bitte meine Signatur.

Ich wünsche Euch nen netten Tag!

Euch auf gar keinen Fall einen netten Tag!
Das war ironisch gemeint!

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
(...)
Nun,am Ende liegen sie wohl irgendwie richtig, denn --Zitat aus einem langen Beitrag---:
An Elliott Wave count should not be viewed as if it were etched in stone. There must be some flexibility.
Aha,dann kann nix mehr schiefgehen....
(...)

Alles anzeigen

Das sind dann die Flummi-Wave Counts ...
Mit dem Satz ist dann zwar eine ganze Zunft entzaubert, aber, was solls. ...
Trendfolge, denke ich mir seit mehreren Jahren, mehr steckt dahinter eben nicht.
(Wobei Trendfolge natürlich schon eine super Sache ist. Unironisch! )

Boing-Boing-Boing!
gutso

Hai Ihr 2!

Meine guten Grüße sind IMMER ironisch gemeint. Dass ihr das noch nicht mitbekommen habt. Also sowas.

Danke für die Euren!

Dann mal ernsthaft: Hals und Beinbruch!

P.S.: Jungs, ich hab grad meine ironische Phase. Keine Sorge, das geht vorüber.

Das hab ich jetzt nicht verstanden ...

Also, Ironie hat doch mit Edelmetallen gar nichts zu tun?

... in diesem Forum sind alle iron-proofed

Heute werden aber andere abgebügelt

Gruss midas

It makes sense to me..... and you ??
Clever, isn't it ?

Why China? Why Silver?

Bill,

As I sat around the hotel jacuzzi this weekend, I couldn't help but overhear two fellow bathers discussing how a relative of theirs had invested 100K to spruce up his house. Now that this relation of theirs wants to sell it, no one will even look at it his property. In order to move this house in the current sales environment, the erstwhile seller would have to lower his asking price by so much that he would lose all the money invested in the fix-up. The result is that the house has been withdrawn from the market while the seller absorbs the reality that much of his savings is gone.

Assuming the American housing market slowdown continues and the consumer retrenches, there are likely to be many losers. This includes countries that are dependent on exports to the U.S. and its previously insatiable consumer market. For example, 40% of the growth in China is due to foreign investment* which has largely gone into building factories to manufacture export goods. Much of the country's domestically financed growth has probably been misdirected due to corruption. For instance, a poll of 3,000 Chinese bankers and brokers suggests that banks make real efforts to recover less than 15% of their bad loans.**

So how will Asian governments react to harder times in the world's biggest export market?

I'm sure that no one in Asia has forgotten the 1997 financial fiasco. Have any of the exporting countries developed a new strategy for coping with another crisis? If they have, there might be signs of it visible in the action of the financial markets.

I find it interesting that when China was caught in a copper market delivery squeeze last year, their defense was that they have the domestic supplies to cover the shortfall. In silver the short position is far greater, on a relative basis, than in copper, but once again China is suspected of being the big short seller (see Ted Butler's recent interview***).
It would not surprise me if the Chinese have used the same logic to convince the commodity exchanges to allow them to build their enormous short position in the white metal. That still leaves the big question: Why China? Why Silver?

Several months ago we had a discussion on Midas of the possibility that China is using the futures markets to depress the price of silver so that they can acquire an overwhelming physical position in the metal. While the price remains low they can buy physical bullion cheaply and ship it back home.

Ultimately, they will default on the contracts while holding onto the actual metal.

A cash settlement would eventually be made using some of the vast amounts of fiat paper they have collected from their trade surplus with the U.S.

If this is correct, what, then do they need so much silver for?

Could silver be the Chinese government's insurance policy for future monetary and political instability?

In response to a severe trade collapse and/or monetary crisis, might they use their silver hoard to issue a new, hard currency?

After all, the Chinese were the last country to give up (reluctantly) the silver standard. Re-monetizing silver would likely be very satisfying for the Chinese public and confer legitimacy on the government. While it would require quite lot of silver to implement, the Chinese have had at least a decade to quietly absorb whatever they could of the world's formerly enormous silver surplus.

A new silver currency could instantly turn around financial perceptions of the country (and help the world forget about all those bad loans) and potentially make Chinese money the world's most desirable. It would be quite an end game to the silver price suppression we have suffered with for so long.

Just food for thought.

Best wishes,

Peter R.

Respected MEMBERS,

I would like to dedicate this newsletter to one of my well-wishers, Bill Murphy, a tireless fighter who never believes in losing.

I would also like to dedicate it to Mr. James Sinclair, a unique personality whom I respect, though we are walking on separate paths in a journey that has the same final destination.

With the exception of metals, a general look over the commodity market shows that nothing looks good because some commodities trade slowly and sideway for long periods. Sometimes they are closely manipulated as well and rendered quite difficult to make money out of.
However, the same doesn’t apply for the metal market, particularly gold and silver.

History amply demonstrates that there has always been high demand for precious metals from the common man and as a matter fact, the last few hundred years have proved it with people having to fight to acquire these precious metals.

For the last two years I have been saying something which is making sense today; and that is the fact that due to growing physical demand, as well as faith and awareness of the real value, metals can’t be kept at low prices by hedging. Indeed, there has been an ever-increasing growth as millions join in to trade or accumulate it from China, India, Middle East as well as European countries. Looking back to 2001/2002, I constantly said, “Gold/silver would attract millions of new investors, and to watch that race”. This is what we are seeing today, and it will therefore be quite difficult for major mining corporations and central banks to successfully manipulate gold prices. Indeed, attempts to do this will become increasingly dangerous and such companies will be risking closure, while for the central banks, it will be tantamount to mortgaging the country.

It is therefore very important to carefully consider in which gold company you invest because in the future, I don’t see hedging being such a great strategy. This is because a bull run will be for quite a long period. One should exercise caution and simply not be content to follow big names without first looking into their hedging books. Therefore, my recommendation is that one should invest in a company that does not risk their neck too much by hedging. As a matter of fact, one can hold or buy in mining companies that hold large deposit areas even though no mining activity may be going on currently. I see a windfall in future as such companies are almost certainly sitting on treasure.

We are definitely approaching a great period for metals and this is not my personal feeling. My work is based on planetary movements and I therefore don’t have a personal interest in supporting gold. When I saw a long-term wave coming in metals back in 2001, I advised my close associates and followers to invest in metals at a time when I in fact didn’t know a single gold bug or anyone from the gold community. My predictions are based on what I see according to planetary movements, and the messages that I get from the wave. I have to be very faithful to my subject even though it sometimes can be painful, like the early part of this year when market activity showed that there was buying power in gold. My theory however showed reason for skepticism for gold, at least for the medium term period between October 2005 and August 2006. Yes, it was a distressing period for me, which saw a roller coaster rise and fall in gold in the last eight months. It is however now time to look ahead.

I once again state that gold is going toward $1000, then to $1200, while silver is going toward $18.80, then to $28.80 by the end of 2007.

This is what I stated in a German TV interview in September last year when gold was trading at $445 and silver was at $7.05. Of course this looks like a dream to many metal investors but one better start believing it as it will be reality and astrological planetary movements support it.

AFTER A FEW MONTHS, IT WILL BE SUICIDAL TO SHORT GOLD AND SILVER AND ONE WILL NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL WHEN TRADING IN A MARKET THAT WILL BE VERY HOT.

Another important feature to note is that “THE DOLLAR AND GOLD WILL WALK TOGETHER HOLDING EACH OTHERS HANDS”, just like I had predicted a while back.

The last hidden point that I have mentioned many times and in my books as well is to watch as the “USA GOVERNMENT WOULD ACQUIRE GOLD”. I believed when I saw this, and I still believe that it will happen, but it is up to you to either believe it or not - I JUST PREDICT WHAT I SEE.

Let me end this section by saying that when gold was trading under $300, only a handful of people were in the market to give faith to metal investors to put their money in it. Of course they were not using astrology and had their own systems of belief, but these were the ones that I first knew: Bill Murphy http://www.lemetropolecafe.com, James Sinclair http://www.jsmineset.com, Bob http://www.321gold.com and David Morgan http://www.silver-investor.com.

Hundreds of other websites are now bullish on gold and silver with some trying to sell, but where were all these new people and why didn’t they advise buying when gold was struggling at $270 and silver at $4.45? My point is that in my view, I think that such people as the ones I have mentioned and others who advised putting money in metals during that period deserve much more respect from metal investors.

I would like to clarify that I have written their names without their knowledge or permission, hence no further meaning should be construed. It is just that I felt I should express it.

Let us now go to my weekly newsletter and see how the week will be as well as the longer term.

Financial Newsletter for this week:

PREDICTIONS FOR 4 TO 8 SEPTEMBER:

GOLD

I believe I have said enough about gold and you just need to meditate on the points I have mentioned. This week gold will trade with a bit of volatility and the trading range will be $634.80 to $614.10. Breaking either level will push prices higher or lower in that specific direction.

The USA market will be closed on Monday for holiday and I am therefore not taking the day into account. On Tuesday Gold should touch $628.80 and if it trades above this magical figure, then buy it. Last week gold was unable to break the “Mars red line figure of $628.80”. Once this level is broken, gold will give profit in buying trades.

My outlook for the long term is very optimistic, but for the short term we shall wait for gold to trade above $628.80. If it trades above this figure for more than twenty fours, it will be confirmation to BUY GOLD.

We will all watch the magic figure of $628.80 and then decide buying gold but till then, watch the price action.

Expect an update from me around New York opening on Tuesday.

SILVER

This week looks interesting and silver may play a supporting or leading role for gold during the week. All I know is that we talking of double prices for silver and if you are trading the futures market then you know how much money one can make, as it has big leverage.

This week’s trading range for silver will $13.18 to $12.72 and if any of these prices are broken for twenty fours hours, it will bring price action in that direction.

We should buy silver on Tuesday evening as it could sharply move up from Wednesday to Friday. However, one should still wait for my update.

COPPER/PLATINUM/PALLADIUM

Though I see a great period for gold and silver, these commodities will not perform too well in the longer term expect copper. There will be short-term uncertainty in copper but if prices remain up in November, this will confirm that copper will go towards $500 or above. However for the time being we should avoid trading copper as I see a sharp downward trend which is pending for copper.

This week industrial commodities will not perform that well so avoid buying them. Copper should move down on Tuesday and Wednesday and we’ll therefore watch the price action as prices can fall around four percent.

Platinum and Palladium will trade sideway so avoid trading them. However, sell both if metals don’t act strong as they could sharply fall from here. I am still waiting for some more time before there is a great turn around.

IMPORTANT NOTE:

The US dollar is neither falling nor rising from the current level but what is however sure is that there will be a historic bull market for the US Dollar. It may take a while, maybe a few weeks before gold joins hands together with the dollar. I would like to watch that moment, as it will be a historic one.

The first few days are always difficult for a newly adopted dog to play with a cat. However, there are no problems once they become closer and accustomed to each other. For the first time, they are most likely to fight and have to be separated. Last year as well as early this year, Gold and the dollar tried it but it may take some time before they walk and play together.

OIL

A few weeks back oil almost touched $80, which was my call for the upside. I recommended selling and warned that the oil bull market was nearing its end. This is still the case and indeed the oil bull market is very near to its end.

This week oil will trade differently and I recommend buying crude on Tuesday as oil should move up from Wednesday. However if it FAILS AND DOESN’T MOVE UP FOR TWO DAYS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY), THIS WILL CONFIRM A SHARP FALL IN CRUDE.

Heating oil and unleaded gas will also fall if oil does, but natural gas will do the opposite as I see a rising movement in natural gas from Tuesday.

Please wait for my update on oil.

TREASURY BOND

From this week bond prices should fall sharply therefore watch your trades. May this year and early July was the right time to buy and indeed I recommended that and all credit should go to planetary movements.

Prices moved up from 106 to 110.24 and 111 should be high. For the short-term, it is time to sell the thirty years bond and there is therefore no need to wait. Sell on Tuesday opening and wait till prices drop to 108, and that will be the right time to buy once again.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The Bond will rise with the dollar, and this is another new relationship being born. There will be a new relationship and fresh path for the next two and half years in the world financial market. It will therefore be advisable not to bank too much on historical trading patterns and trends.

CURRENCIES

Any new trend takes sometime before it is born and when a child is conceived, there is a ninety percent possibility that the child will be delivered, while there is a two percent possibility of a miscarriage. My advice is that one should count on the dollar’s rise for sure.

This week the dollar should start rising from Tuesday and we will see it gaining strength during the week. Furthermore, I still don’t see it trading below $84.85.

Buy the Dollar index on Tuesday as well as December contract. Tuesday’s rally will stop at 86.35 in six trading days.

This week the Japanese yen will remain positive, while one should take a short position in the Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and Canadian dollar and hold position for the longer term.

In addition, the Swiss Franc and the Euro will trade weaker during this week, while the British pound will remain sideway.

My daily update will guide you more about buying and selling of currencies.

BEFORE YOU TRADE, REMEMBER;

The Dollar’s rise will occur anytime and would like to see its impact on metals. I am leaving the decision to trade metals up to you and while I wouldn’t do anything in a hurry, I would very closely watch since we are only a few weeks away from a major turn-around in metals.

GOLD SHOULD TRADE ABOVE $628.80 FOR TWO DAYS.

Other commodities will trade sideway – Trade grains and coffee.

I wish you good luck in this week’s trading.

Thanks & God Bless

Sharma Mahendra

Zitat

Original von Mahendra
(...)
PREDICTIONS FOR 4 TO 8 SEPTEMBER:
(...)
COPPER/PLATINUM/PALLADIUM

Though I see a great period for gold and silver, these commodities will not perform too well in the longer term expect copper. There will be short-term uncertainty in copper but if prices remain up in November, this will confirm that copper will go towards $500 or above. However for the time being we should avoid trading copper as I see a sharp downward trend which is pending for copper.
(...)
Platinum and Palladium will trade sideway so avoid trading them. However, sell both if metals don’t act strong as they could sharply fall from here. I am still waiting for some more time before there is a great turn around.
(...)

Alles anzeigen

Guten Morgen Eldo,

wenn er wirklich ein guter Kotraindilkator ist, ist also Palladium weiter ein Kauf.
Trotz fast erreichter Widerstandszonen ... .

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pd0060lnb.gif]
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pd1825nyb.gif]

Grüsse,
gutso

Moin, moin guto,

Pd ist einfach spottbillig. Und irgendwie steht noch die Antwort auf die Frage aus, wie China und Indien ihre ganzen Kats aus dem teuren Platin bauen wollen.

Chart, Ew, Gurus und mein Magen hin oder her.

Es grüßet,

der Seher (alias KR)

Dear Members,

Gold, silver, platinum, copper and all other base metals have started trading weak. This is the reason that for the last one month I have been saying that though the metal’s bull market is very near, there was one more fall pending, and that gold could break $600 or may even touch $580.

Evidently, time has proven this right and metals are falling sharply and the $628.80 FIGURE HAS PROVED TO BE QUITE AN IMPORTANT ONE.

Let me reiterate that gold will touch $1000 but before the start of the bull journey, it may first go to $580 or even lower, therefore trade accordingly.

Today all metals should remain weak, as gold has broken the important Jupiter level of $614 and therefore no new buying is recommended.

Wait to buy at $581.

Silver is trading weak as well and it will break $12.00.
The next buying time will come after two weeks.

Platinum is going down quite rapidly and will move down some more.

I always talk of the spot price, because some members asked me to. Currently gold is trading at $612.80 while silver is at $12.12. Gold will test $604 and silver $11.92. We will watch the movements, but there is no hurry.

There are two important points:

As indicated by Jupiter, the rise of the dollar rise has been proving right and I must therefore thank Jupiter for this. Jupiter has brought a unique wave in the US Dollar and metals will still not walk together with the dollar till I see some negative news for metals. THE DOLLAR’S RISE IS A KEY FACTOR IN WEAK METALS AND WE SEE IT CURRENTLY.

As I have been mentioning, there are still a few weeks or even months pending before the metals’ bull market can gain strength.

AS FAR AS OIL IS CONCERNED, IT SHOULD MOVE UP SHARPLY FROM $67.50.

The stock market should move up and therefore buying is recommended during opening, while those who short on my recommendation can cut short on opening.

For the moment I don’t want to say much about the dollar, but one should hold position or add more as the dollar has entered into a historic bull market.

IN THIS WEEK NEWSLETTER I MENTIONED:

BEFORE YOU TRADE, REMEMBER;

The Dollar’s rise will occur anytime and would like to see its impact on metals. I am leaving the decision to trade metals up to you and while I wouldn’t do anything in a hurry, I would very closely watch since we are only a few weeks away from a major turn-around in metals.

GOLD SHOULD TRADE ABOVE $628.80 FOR TWO DAYS.

This week gold will trade with a bit of volatility and the trading range will be $634.80 to $614.10. Breaking either level will push prices higher or lower in that specific direction. (We have to see two day trading below $614 to confirm bear market).