Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    In der aktuellen Focus Money (Nr. 27, S.36) gibt es eine Chartanalyse zu Gold:


    Matter Abglanz


    Zum ersten Mal seit 2001 unterschritt der Goldpreis vor 8 Wochen seine 200-Tage-Linie. Tatsachen wie diese begeistern den einfachen Kurvendeuter. Experten aus dem feindlichen fundamentalen Lager halten solche Aussagen dagegen weitgehend für irrelevant. Die Männer mit Lineal und Bleistift allerdings wurden in den vergangenen Wochen zunehmend vorsichtig.


    Negative Indizien: Auch der Moving Average Convergence Divergence sendet negative Signale für den Goldpreis. Der Indikator bewegt sich im Bärenmarkt-Terrain. Die Kurvendeuter bauen jetzt auf die Unterstützung um 370 US-Dollar. Fällt diese, könnte Gold bis 330 Dollar fallen. Erst wenn das Edelmetall wieder mehr als 400 US-Dollar kostet, geben die Charttechniker Entwarnung. Dann wäre die 200-Tage-Linie erneut überwunden.


    Mein Kommentar: Manchmal geht es schneller aufwärts als man denkt !

    Das erste Interview des neuen Bundesbankchefs: Axel Weber über orthodoxe Geldpolitiker, Goldverkäufe und den Sparkurs der Regierung


    ...
    ZEIT: Die Bundesbank ist nicht bereit, dem Finanzminister mit Goldverkäufen aus der Klemme zu helfen?


    WEBER: Angesichts der großen Probleme des Bundeshaushaltes können die Goldverkäufe keinen nennenswerten Beitrag zur Konsolidierung liefern. Aber für die Bundesbank spielt Gold eine wichtige Rolle im Management der Währungsreserven. Es ist nämlich die natürliche Sicherung gegen starke Dollarschwankungen: Verluste bei den Dollarbeständen können teilweise durch Gewinne auf die Goldbestände ausgeglichen werden und umgekehrt.


    ZEIT: Die Bundesbank hat noch gar keine Goldverkäufe beschlossen?


    WEBER: Nein. Wir diskutieren im Eurosystem der Zentralbanken, welche Reserven die Zentralbanken insgesamt halten sollen. Vom Ergebnis wird es abhängen, ob wir Gold verkaufen. Wir werden im September entscheiden.


    ZEIT: Aber das Junktim Ihres Vorgängers Ernst Welteke, dass die Bundesbank nur Gold verkauft, wenn der Erlös in eine Stiftung fließt, gilt nicht mehr?


    WEBER: Für mich ist die Gesetzeslage ganz eindeutig: Der Bundesbankgewinn, woraus er auch immer erwirtschaftet wird, steht dem Bund zu.
    ...
    www.zeit.de

    Ein Tag, den Charttechniker wieder ganz schnell verdrängen werden.
    Entscheidend ist eben nicht eine krakelige Linie, die die Vergangenheit abbildet oder eine völlig willkürliche 200-Tagelinie (warum nicht 396-Tage?), sondern Angebot und Nachfrage der Gegenwart.
    Zum Dollar: Warum sollte die Zinsentscheidung relevant sein? In Japan liegen die Zinsen seit Jahren bei fast 0% und trotz intensiver Interventionen der BoJ zugunsten des Dollars ist der Yen stark.

    June 24 - Gold $402.60 up $8 – Silver $6.16 up 29 cents


    Gold And Silver Roar Higher


    When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph...Pierre Corneille


    GO GATA!!!


    Gold opened up above $400 and all the moving averages, spurted up a bit, and then was constrained within the $6 Rule parameters for the rest of session until the last half hour when it managed to pop up $8+ on the day. I’ll take it, however rather pathetic when you consider all that gold had going for it. As is, gold was only able to close $1 higher than where it traded in the first 15 minutes. Meanwhile silver made about 10 new highs, opening 8 cents higher and then moving gradually higher all day long.


    Except for The Gold Cartel, you couldn’t ask for a better fundamental and technical set-up for gold. It has completed a two month+ base below $400 and has broken out to the upside with few specs on board. I shudder to think what the open interest did today. The good news is the cabal is going to have their hands full and is going to have to go through a great deal of ammunition to keep gold from soaring. Even if the open interest rose 10,000 contracts, we have 80,000 more to go.


    Morgan Stanley once again was an aggressive early buyer. The funds came in all day long on the buy gold side. The seller? Who else, Goldman Sachs on behalf of The Gold Cartel was a massive seller all session long. On the close they were joined on the sell side by Rouse and some other cash firms.


    Veteran Café members have noted MIDAS sighting Goldman Sachs as the featured seller on almost all sharp rallies and when gold needs to be held back. You would think someone else out there would notice the same thing. Anyone who has ever traded commodities knows a house does not do the same thing over and over and over. This is how GATA began. I noticed Goldman Sachs capping the gold price after the LTCM fiasco. They are the designated hitter for the cabal and have made hundreds of millions picking your pocket. It is revolting.


    What a rarity! There were 6383 July $400 gold calls that expired today and did so nicely in the money.


    The gold open interest only rose 136 contracts to 219,660, while the silver open interest fell 2377 contracts to 88,125.


    The only time gold has closed up and outside the $6 rule parameters in the last few years, it was clocked the next day. Will Goldman and friends spank gold tomorrow for being so unruly?


    One fine looking August gold chart:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84


    There won’t be many days when gold has going for it what it had today:


    *Break out above all the moving averages
    *Break out above the key $400 psychological mark
    *Break out from a sizeable near term base
    *Lowest spec long position in eons
    *Five attacks in Iraq with 69 dead
    *Bomb blast in Turkey
    *Dollar weak


    All that and gold ends up tacking on less than a $1 from its opening surge. The Gold Cartel is not running for the hills yet. That is for sure. While gold did close outside of its $6 Rule parameters, it barely did so. Only if gold closes higher tomorrow will the $6 Rule truly have been broken.


    Gold positive: funds should pour in on all dips
    Gold negative: gold has left two sizeable gaps on the downside


    The funds covered shorts in silver and have yet to go long. A fine performance by silver, however, unlike gold it has not broken out yet. It must clear the early June highs of about $6.25.


    September silver
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/74

    The John Brimelow Report


    Bad hair day


    Thursday, June 24, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.58, PM $4.10, with world gold at $394.10 and $396.20. Slightly below import point. Encouraging, from the point of view of gold’s friends.


    Given the strong yen, TOCOM was of course unenthusiastic: volume fell 24% to the equivalent of 12,232 Comex lots, and the active contract closed down 10 yen. Open interest slipped 92 Comex equivalent. World gold was up $2 above the NY close at $396.50. Significantly, Mitsubishi remarks in their charming English:


    "A good dealers selling capped Loco Ldn gold. Despite of steady USD/Yen, one huge selling order (around 1 lac?) emerged into the market and down to the low by mid morning."


    In Japanese hours, it appears, gold is dominated by exogenous sellers. (Volume in NY yesterday is said to have been only 26,696 lots; open interest rose 136 lots.)


    According to Standard London’s website, kilo bar was at a $1.78/oz premium in Dubai this morning. This is high; and possibly the key element in the gold equation right now.


    But for those who prefer the US/Macro approach to gold, Bianco Associates Newsclips service provides sustenance:


    "Comment - Read the passage below three times! It exactly lays out the risk the Fed faces this cycle.


    Even if inflation appears manageable, one problem with a leisurely pace of rate increases is that the changes take 18 to 24 months to kick in, says Stephen Cecchetti, international economics and finance professor at Brandeis University in Waltham, Mass. If it takes the Fed a year and a half to push interest rates up to normal levels, "this means that inflation will continue to rise for the next three years," he wrote in a recent monthly inflation report.


    And –


    Conspiracy Theories


    Mises.org - CBOT is cutting Interest Rate Future Margins for the second time in as many months.
    The CBOT is slashing margins across the interest rate spectrum on 6/23/04.
    This is the second cut in interest rate future margin rates since May 27th of 2004.
    However, the CBOT is raising margins dramatically on Fed Fund Futures.
    Could this be an effort to calm the long end and squeeze the shorts on the Fed Fund Futures? If a rally in Fed Funds could appear before next week it would take pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
    JB


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The DOW fell back, closing at 10,444, down 36, while the DOG sank 5 to 2016. The dollar lost .70 to 89.03 and the euro gained .79 to 121.50. The yen continues to surge, rising to 107.09. Look out if it takes out 105.


    The Iraq situation just gets worse and worse. What a nightmare!


    69 Said Dead in Attacks Across Iraq
    AP) - Insurgents launched coordinated attacks against police and government buildings across Iraq Thursday, less than a week before the handover of sovereignty. Sixty-nine people including three American soldiers were killed, and more than 270 people were wounded, Iraqi and U.S. officials said. The large number of attacks, mostly directed at Iraqi security services, was a clear sign of just how powerful the insurgency in Iraq remains — and could be the start of a new push to torpedo the June 30 transfer of sovereignty to an interim transitional government.


    Later reports upped the toll to 6 attacks and 100+ dead (and 320 wounded).


    -END-


    Happened to pass the tube and some Wall Street clown was on CNBC talking about Iraq and the stock market. With a straight face he actually said investors aren’t as concerned about Iraq as they were six months ago which is why the market isn’t selling off on this awful news. He hasn’t heard of the PPT. The biggest blunder in US history and no one cares? If not, we are in bigger financial trouble than I thought.


    The US economic news was not very good and sent the dollar lower.


    June 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. orders for durable goods unexpectedly dropped 1.6 percent in May, a second consecutive fall, paced by fewer bookings for autos, computers and machinery, a government report showed.
    Orders for items made to last at least three years decreased to $189.1 billion after falling 2.6 percent in April, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 0.7 percent following a 1.7 percent drop. –END-


    10:00 May Help Wanted Index reported 39 vs. consensus 39
    Prior reading was 38.
    * * * * *
    10:00 May New Home Sales reported 1.369M vs. consensus 1.125M
    Prior reading revised to 1.192M from 1.093M.
    * * * * *



    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    The Fed as expected, added $17.89 Billion in repos today, June 24th 2004. This consisted of $1.390 in permanent open market operations and $16.5 in temporary operations. The repo funds available throughout the day today will top $66.77 Billion, an amount easily able to steer the DOW futures markets.


    By looking ahead to the large expiration dates we can predict a strong DOW day since the intra-day pool totals will be very high since the expirations almost always are offset by new repos, thus raising the intra-day pool totals. The expiration takes place at the end of the trading day. Watch closely for any DOW moves near the end of the day today and this may tell us that the DOW is weaker than normal due to the loss of futures support with the return to the Fed's "Desk" of previously borrowed and expiring securities. If there is no weakness, then the Fed's primary dealers might be saving extra repos for a future event.


    To the above total today we see a relatively large pomo of $1.390 Billion. This sum stays in the market and becomes part of the borrowers portfolio of government securities, complete with payment "coupons" or interest payments back to the Fed. When "coupon passes" are sometimes issued for the listed securities, those payments are skipped. Because these permanent operations are durable, they carry a far larger impact on the portfolios of the Fed's primary dealers and as a direct result, on the futures markets. POMOs are like high-octane fuel to carry out the Fed's "monetary policy". A policy that appears to artificially support the leading financial indexes.


    After an 85 point rise yesterday, the DOW at this hour is taking a breather. Time will tell when the big DOW jump will arrive...but make no mistake, it will arrive, possibly as another "War Rally" to "support" the next invasion on the list or more likely to support the Fed's June 30th interest rate announcement.


    Mr. Greenspan has managed to stir the rate expectation pot to include everything from no increase to as high as a 100 basis point rise (Perhaps two closely spaced 50s). I'm looking at strong repo action less than a week ahead of the announcement and wondering why the Fed would need the "extra" support for a minor 25 basis point rise...unless the rise will be larger and the Fed is pre-loading the support mechanism. There are other indicators from competent sources that suggest the dollar is poised to break either way. However, with the PPI and trade deficits swooning it is hard to envision another do-nothing rate decision.


    Stay tuned and be ready for a good gold buying opportunity.
    Mike


    While I believe Bush 2 will go down as one of the worst Presidents in the history of the United States, to be fair and balanced MIDAS offers an opinion of the last President from Bill King:


    The King Report
    M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.


    You almost have to feel sorry for Slick when even liberals icons are slamming him and his book.


    George Neumayr: "For the longest time the left denied that Bill Clinton was a liar and philanderer. The infidelity charges against him were "uncorroborated," "baloney," even "unbelievable," they said. Gennifer Flowers and all the other greedy connivers lied, they insisted. Clinton told the truth. Now his obfuscators openly admit he was a lying philanderer and disclose quite casually that they knew it all along. "Those particular weaknesses through the years that I've known him were pretty well known," says former Clinton flak Lanny Davis. Former Hillary Clinton flak Lisa Caputo says, "I knew he had demons." Candor only about 14 years too late." http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=6739


    CNSNews.com: "Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and two government advisors denied on Wednesday that Netanyahu - the former Israeli prime minister -- had ever agreed to give up the entire Golan Heights in exchange for peace with Syria, as former President Bill Clinton claims in his new book." http://www.cnsnews.com//ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=\ForeignBureaus\archive\200406\FOR20040623c.html


    The London Sun’s Treavor Kavanugh in ‘The lies of Slick Willy’: "The ex-President, known as Slick Willy, uses his 1,000-page autobiography to whitewash eight flawed years in power. Still, Clinton remains the hero of the sentimental Left. They condemn Republican George Bush for joining the National Guard rather than fighting in Vietnam. But for Clinton, his draft-dodging in that conflict is a badge of honour." http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,5-2004290413,00.html


    Slick has blamed the pressure of the presidency for this philandering and avers that the reason he lied was to keep the presidency. "Asked why he didn't immediately acknowledge the affair when stories about it broke in early 1998, Clinton said, ‘I didn't do it because there was so much hysteria and because I didn't know what Ken Starr was going to do to anybody…The American people almost always get it right if they're given enough time and enough information. There was just this madness. Everybody was saying Clinton's dead meat,’ he said. ;I will never know what would have happened, but I can only tell you this. I have not talked to a single person who was there then, who knew what was going on, who believes I would survived as president if I had said that. No one. Not anyone. Asked if he would have lost the presidency, he replied, ‘That's correct.’" http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1158507/posts


    The Washington Post’s Anne Applebaum: "Given that context, the book itself can only be described as disappointing, even bizarre…Apparently, Clinton dawdled over the book for several years, concentrating on his childhood, and wound up racing to finish the final, presidential chapters this spring…At the same time, he finds space not only for trivia but for emotional reactions to the trivia…Because there is no central argument, no clear explanation of what his presidency was about, one is left, in the end, with nothing other than an emotional reaction to the man himself -- as always."
    http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…washpost/a62094_2004jun22


    Dick Morris: "Bill Clinton has a unique form of ADD — he is disordered when he does not get enough attention…But now, in the twilight of his political career, he craves attention. He needs an audience. He has to have a mirror, to see himself in the eyes of others in order to understand who he is."
    http://www.frontpagemag.com/Ar…/ReadArticle.asp?ID=13907


    -END-

    Eagle eye Jessie notes:


    What planet is the NY Fed Monitoring? They have some nerve, I'll give them that.


    (Jessie’s comments in parentheses)


    http://www.ny.frb.org/research/epr/forthcoming/mccarthy.pdf


    "Our analysis of the U.S. housing market in recent years finds little evidence to support the existence of a national home price bubble. Rather, it appears that home prices have risen in line with increases in personal income and declines in nominal interest rates. Moreover, expectations of rapid price appreciation do not appear to be a major factor behind the strong housing market."


    "Moreover, weaker economic conditions are unlikely to trigger a severe drop in home prices. Historically, aggregate real home prices have fallen only moderately in periods of recession and high nominal interest rates." (Historically, the Great Depression only occurs infrequently, at times and conditions such as these).


    "While such conditions could lead to lower home prices in states along the east and west coasts—areas where an inelastic supply of housing has made home prices particularly sensitive to changes in demand—regional price declines in the past have not had devastating effects on the broader economy." (Inconsequential regions like the east and west coasts and every major city throughout the US, excepting West Virginia.)


    "Any home price series used to assess the existence of a bubble should attempt to control for location and changes in quality." (Housing Hedonics to the Rescue. Its well noted how much work homes sellers are putting into their shacks before unloading them at high multiple gains...NOT!)


    New York Post Online:


    June 20, 2004 -- Wall Street bankers and lawyers are a fiercely competitive lot — even when they're playing on the same team. Attorneys for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley took a few shots at each other last week as they both staved off a raft of opposing trial lawyers. All parties appeared in front of U.S. District Judge Shira A. Scheindlin, in a case where trial lawyers — including heavyweight Milberg Weiss — took Goldman, Morgan Stanley and 53 other banks to task for allegedly rigging the initial public offering marketplace.


    The judge drilled both sides to decide whether the case will be awarded class-action status and asked how different clients would be affected.


    Superlawyer Gandolfo V. DiBlasi, representing underwriters who work with Goldman Sachs, explained how the case applied to rich people ("high net worth" in Wall Street parlance), who represent Goldman's clientele. Morgan Stanley lawyer Andrew Clubok piped in, joking that he represented Morgan Stanley,…


    -END-


    More on the coming stock market scandal. A posting by Vronsky at Gold-Eagle for John Mackenzie


    Yesterday I discussed the possibility of a rogue trader being behind the action in the S&P Emini’s with a large trader of these contracts. He confirmed what I had been told by a number of sources both on and off the floor: "Igor" had been making a fortune collaring the market since November of 2003.


    This trader accounts for 20% of the volume in the S&P Emini’s. Many traders I have spoken with believe this trader, now a group of three to four traders have somehow figured out the interventionist's game plan and are actively trading in lock step with it.


    Others believe this "rogue" trader is the market, I can assure you, that is not the case.


    Although the trading pattern suggests collusion on the part of the CME and large institutions that make up the balance of the volume, no one has seen fit to address the illegality of this activity, other than to suggest it is currently "under investigation".


    Many traders have suggested there is an active "linked bid" with very large order depth behind this trader to support their ongoing activity. This is confirmed by both sides of the order queue whereby orders placed are moved throughout queue and re-assigned placement. The depth of bid/offer is very large.


    Large Institutional trading Firms, such as ABN Ambro, given an opportunity to blow this trader up, could do so in short order, Yet the attempt is never made. An exogenous event would send this trader into in excess of a $500,000,000.00 loss in short order.


    Collusion is apparent as trades continue to cross daily:
    _______________________________


    Message From: GLOBEX Control Center:


    Effect Date: Wed May 19, 2004 07:40 am CST


    Message: Recently, questions have been raised about the rules which apply when individuals trade opposite their own orders on the GLOBEX(R) system.


    CME Rule 432.G. ("Major Offenses") states that it shall be a major offense "to act as both buyer and seller in the same transaction." With respect to GLOBEX trading, this rule prohibits any person entering orders into the system from intentionally trading opposite their own bids or offers. Similarly, the rule prohibits any account owner from directing that bids or offers for his or her account be entered into GLOBEX with the intent of trading opposite one another. However, this restriction does not apply to individuals entering independently initiated orders on opposite sides of the market for different beneficial account owners that did not involve pre-execution discussions.


    In electronic trading, it may occur that an individual trades opposite his or her own order by accident. If this happens more than occasionally, it is recommended that the situation be reported to Market Regulation, along with an explanation of the reasons for the transactions. Generally, unintentional cross trades of this type will not be considered violations of Rule 432.G.


    However, if such trades occur frequently without explanation, or if they cause price or volume aberrations, other rule violations may be involved.


    Traders who engage in frequent changing of bids and offers are encouraged to use front-end functionality which automatically cancels orders at a price when the market maker enters new orders on the opposite side of the market at that price that could potentially be matched with the their own order.


    Should you have any questions, please contact Jim Moran at 312.930.8520, Eric Wolff at 312.930.3255, or Bob Sniegowski at 312.648.5493.
    ________________________________________


    One of the more telling conversations I had this morning was a trader who had his limits raised to call 990 on their manipulation and was instantly handed their head and $750,000.00 in losses.


    I have discussed the scope and depth of pockets required to maintain this ongoing manipulation and traders believe there is massive collusion between the exchange and certain member firms masking trades for the ESF/Working Group on Financial Markets.


    The CME has set about making phone calls to traders who have commented on this matter, suggesting it would be very bad for business were this allowed increase in din. After having no comment on the matter, the matter is under investigation and has the attention of compliance.


    I suspect, as I have said all along, the malfeasance will simply spread far and wide. The actual level of liquidity is this intervention and transitory in nature. The market is far too large to allow one trader accounting for 20% of the volume to corner the S&P Eminis.


    The S&P Emini is being collared and moved in lock step daily by several parties through linkages in the order queue, the ongoing pattern is the same every day. the market is being controlled and those with winning hands on the short side are losing when asserting their positions. This activity is clearly draining liquidity from the market, yet support exists on the long side.


    We have not seen a 2% down day in the S&P in 276 trading days, this is unparalelled.


    Posted on behalf of
    JOHN MACKENZIE


    My guess is there are plenty of gold traders out there in lockstep with The Gold Cartel too!


    A follow-up from one of the most savvy fund managers out there:


    Bill,
    I got a chuckle out of last night’s Midas when your subscriber Derek attacked the article in Reuters about "Inflation Fears Overblown." I too received a copy of it from a client and here is what I told him (below our disclaimer).
    Wistar W. Holt
    http://www.holtshapard.com


    Subject: RE: Yahoo! Finance Story - Inflation fears overblown as Wall St stays calm


    Larry,
    Let me tell you, of all of the "bullish" arguments by Wall Street sources I have read, this is one of the most pathetic. Please allow me to take it apart piece by piece:


    1,Keep in mind that Wall Street sources like Morgan Stanley, institutional money managers like Stone Ridge Investment Partners, or Rutherford, Brown, and Catherwood, and media sources like Reuters (where Wall Street firms supply the advertising dollars)…..HATE GOLD! Gold competes with the overvalued stocks and bonds that they want you to buy. If gold rises, it raises questions about the kinds of investments Wall Street wants you to own. They refer to themselves as "smart money." I refer to them and those they cater to as "cattle", as in a herd.


    2. I love the line, "...the Federal Reserve is going to stop inflation." Not with 1% fed funds they are not!! No, in actuality the Fed is desperately trying to inflate everything in order to fight off deflation in the economy. Actions speak louder than words. Greenspan wants everyone to believe there is no inflation. However, food, oil, natural gas, sporting event tickets, lumber, steel, copper, and many other items are up sharply in the past year. Even the USA TODAY raised its prices 50% today!! Notice how there is nothing mentioned about the mysterious delay of the PPI number. It later was reported at a 10% annual rate. The true number was probably twice that high before the fed "adjusted" it.


    3. Doesn’t it seem silly that these sources are desperately trying to criticize the decline in gold this year without admitting that gold was the number 1 performing sector for the past 3 years! Talk about ignorance, or denial.


    4. You and I know that much of the reason for gold’s weakness this year is attributed to manipulation by the Bullion Banks in collusion with the federal government. Otherwise, gold would in all likelihood be hitting new highs daily. Wall Street firms like Morgan Stanley are part of that gold "cartel." Naturally, they would avoid discussing this conspiracy which is well documented and involves a major lawsuit against JP Morgan and Barricks. The defendants are desperately trying to avoid the "discovery" process. I wonder why???


    5. When they say, "investors are not racing to buy gold stocks." My response is they have been since 2001 and will continue to again soon.


    6. Morgan Stanley’s economist Richard Bernstein says, "Appropriate Fed action will nip this inflation in the bud." Yes, "appropriate" action like raising fed funds rate to 4% or higher (which is considered the neutral level) would slow inflation because it will kill the economy! Greenspan knows this and that is why all the attention is on only a ¼% increase to 1 ¼%. That is a long way from 4%! This is how Wall Street "spins" a statement without looking wrong. Bernstein knows that Greenspan isn’t going to raise rates to an "appropriate" level. By phrasing it this way, Bernstein deflects any potential criticism when the markets turn down due to rising inflation.


    Larry, I could go on and on but I think you probably get the message. Most of the talk out of Wall Street is "spin", lies, and denial. Otherwise they would not encourage their clients to stay in the market when NASDAQ hits 5200, only to fall 83% to 1000 three years later.


    Thanks for bringing this to my attention. It’s always interesting to hear what comes out of their mouths next.


    Regards,
    Wistar W. Holt


    My interview at Joe Martin’s gold conference can be found here:


    The SmartststoxOn-Line Talk Show from Vancouver


    http://www.smartstox.com/interviews/gata3.html


    Derek VanArtsdalen from San Antonio:


    Hi Bill,
    Without wasting any time, here's an update on the big breakout today in the HUI. Here's the chart as of 10:30 a.m. Central time:






    The upside breakout from the symmetrical triangle is a powerful one (green circle). It looks like the breakout took place at about 189 or so, making the measured move on the HUI about 266. That's extremely important, I think, because it means that if the price objective is indeed attained, we would be well beyond the double-top resistance that was formed in December and January. If that happens, look out above. By the way, the internal indicators (circled in red) are both looking beautiful for a big run-up if one is in the works...


    Here's one more view of the same chart, but this time with the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages:





    The main thing to absorb here is that the HUI has dramatically smashed upward through its 50-day moving average, which has acted as resistance on and off since January. Now the stage may be set for an imminent attack on the 200-day average in the days/weeks ahead.


    That's it for today, my friend. We'll just keep things simple and hope for some serious follow-through action over the next several trading sessions...
    Derek


    Jim Sinclair has a shot to get his $480 gold in August.


    Mahendra did it again. Said gold and silver would rise this week and they have. He was especially keen on silver, however, I think his upside was reached today for the near term. Unless he has changed his mind, he said last week to take some profits tomorrow.


    Auckland Ed notes:


    Bill last December when we crossed over $400 the HUI was much higher.
    < Nov 28 Gold price $397.50 HUI index was 248.43
    Dec 5th Gold price $406.10 HUI index was 252.60
    June 24th Gold is $402.30 HUI as I write 193.83


    When the Gold price hits $475 the HUI index will be around 400. A lot of juniors will triple from here. A lot of Gold bugs are still in cash (trash).
    Remember this from Ayn Rand:
    "Paper money is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist."
    Cheers from Auckland, Ed


    Sarge notes:


    Gold closes up $8. But 5 minutes before gold closes someone starts selling the HUI. And the selling has yet to stop. Relentless, but quiet selling.
    I have seen this one before.


    The gold shares continued to sell off with the XAU ending up 1.91 to 88.56, while the HUI dropped well off its highs to finish the day at 193.88, up 5.17. The HUI took out its downtrend nicely, yet showed no oomph at all.


    HUI
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    Talk about the lousy sentiment out there in the financial world re gold (which I have brought to your attention for weeks now). I received some feedback last night from my contact at the investment firm who was going to sponsor a GATA gold presentation today (since cancelled) – the same firm which attracted a standing room only crowd to hear Dave Lewis’ presentation on the dollar and the financial markets. Dave attracted mangers who invest $100 billion in toto. GATA attracted zip. Here is the email I received last night after I queried my contact further:


    I speak to money managers in Boston & NY everyday and I promise you that there is ZERO interest in the gold stocks right now,
    RJ


    As a contrarian, you have to love to read that sort of comment. This will give you some idea why the gold shares have been so lethargic. It also tells you why they are going to ballistic down the road as many of these money managers pile in to the tiny gold sector.


    Tomorrow will be a very interesting day. Should gold close higher, which it should, it will break The Gold Cartel pattern. After breakouts such as we had today in most markets, there is usually some sort of follow through. Because the cabal sits on gold after breakouts, gold almost never does. However, this time the funds might just overpower the bad guys. Regardless, if gold runs tomorrow or not, the bums sitting all over this market are on their way out.


    Gold, silver and the precious metals shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/ima…g/MKTW/large_blk_logo.gif]


    Gold atop $400 for 1st time since April
    Analysts see chance for $500, but mining shares lag gains

    SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures climbed above $400 an ounce Thursday to close at their highest level in more than two months as weakness in the U.S. dollar and uncertainty overseas spurred investment demand for the metals.

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    Veteran fund managers see overvalued stocks, bonds

    "The environment for gold hasn't been this good in 20 years," said Peter Grandich, editor of newsletter The Grandich Letter, pointing out that turmoil in the Middle East has affected daily trading and has given the market "a strong underpinning."


    Moreover, "the fact that inflation is now back on the radar of even the 'Don't Worry, Be Happy' crowd on Wall Street, has laid the foundation for my $500 target on gold to be hit," he said. 8)


    On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery traded as high as $404 an ounce before closing at $403.50, up $8. The contract hasn't closed at a level this high since April 13. See the latest futures prices.


    Weakness in the dollar also helped spur investment demand for gold Thursday.


    The greenback was sharply weaker against the yen after the Japanese government released data showing that Japan's latest tertiary index came in stronger than expected. The index measures activity in wholesale and retail sales, transport and financial services. See Currencies.


    An unexpected decline in U.S. durable goods orders and a rise in initial jobless claims also put pressure on the dollar, prompting investors to seek out a safer bet in the metals market. See Economic Reports.


    Other metals futures headed higher on Nymex as well, with silver leading the gains.


    The July silver contract closed at $6.175 per ounce, up 30 cents, or 5.1 percent. July copper added another 2.85 cents to close at $1.2235 per pound.


    September palladium closed up $6.40 at $229.90 an ounce, while July platinum climbed $3.60 to end at $813 an ounce.


    Copper supplies were down 2,084 short tons at 103,256 short tons as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were down 9,984 troy ounces at 117.7 million troy ounces. Gold inventories stood at 4.21 million troy ounces, down 182,818 troy ounces from the previous day.


    $500 gold?


    Where gold may be headed next is anyone's guess, but more analysts are favoring the potential for higher prices -- even as high as $500 an ounce.


    "$500 is now a realistic target in the fairly near term," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International. "With all the uncertainty over interest rates and the greenback, gold is setting up nicely to take out these key resistance levels," he said. Read more of his latest comments.


    All in all, the biggest reasons that gold's likely to climb are "large federal deficits, expanding monetary supply, increased global demand, and the fact that both India and China are expanding into a capitalistic entrepreneurial mode," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.


    He said prices will trade at around $475 at the year's end. See more of comments.


    The risk for higher gold prices is significantly greater than that for the downside, said Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, in an interview.


    "I still think there's a $25 risk on the downside, and there's $75 on the upside -- so you have a 3 to 1 risk ratio," he said.


    The dollar will continue to be the biggest driver for gold prices, he said. "What makes a weak dollar is deficit spending over 5 percent of GDP -- we're pushing 10 percent, and real interest rates -- the CPI minus the fed funds rate is still negative and even if rates rise, they will still be negative," he explained.


    Mehr

    „Die Menschen sind so einfältig und hängen so sehr vom Eindruck des Augenblickes ab, dass einer, der sie täuschen will, stets jemanden findet, der sich täuschen lässt.“ (Niccolò Machiavelli)

    bei allem optimismus, wir haben ein problem mit dem Rand.
    sollte die dicke dicke rosarote marke mittels dem dreieck durchbrechen werden koennen, gibts neue dickedicke dunkelrote unterstuetzung.


    3eck vorher nicht ganz sauber gezeichnet. 0,14 war die spitze. dennoch, hoffemer dass dies ein FAKE-breakout war. ansonsten hallamanacht!

    der randgoldpreis muesste sich trotz des unsauberen gezeichneten charts hier (keine zeit nachzuzeichnen, dieser schon mehrere monate alt, jetzt wo es um die spitze geht,muesste man mal genauer zeichnen wo man weiss wie es hier an der spitze aussieht. auf jeden fall mitten drin, entweder hopp oder topp. gold is ja ganz nett, aber was fuer ein nervenkostuem braucht man fuer den rand???? das is doch das jahr der SA MInen!!!! glaube immernoch daran: ende des jahres haben alle SA minen alle anderen laender ueberholt.


    mein tip: der rand packts nicht ueber diese 0,16! wenn dann minimal mal kurz schnuppern und ab wieder runter. schlimmsten fall ein kl. entscheidungsdreieck mitten auf der 0,16, aber eigentlich hat der randgoldpreischart kein platz mehr, oder kann man die zpitze noch irgendwie verlaengern??? schaunmer mal. alles is moeglich -....

    ja sicher, praesidentschaftszyklus und so, die boersen sind jetzt am steigen bis november, dimi speck, sicher, aber erstmal muessend ie es schaffemn GEGEN die 4.welle innerhalb dieses massiven dreiecks anzukaempfen!! und die 4.welle muss runter!!! erst dann koennte es rauf gehen! sicherlich kann man schaffen jetzt den kurs ueberhalb der oberen schenkel zu platzieren und zu halten aber ein gewaltiger ausbruch nach oben auf zB die 11.000 schon jetzt? ich bezweifle es stark! vielleicht auf 10.500-10.900. aber 11.000 als unterstuetzung??????? wenn es tough werden sollte wie gesagt, dann koennte ein anschlaegchen das ganze treiben hinfaellig machen und der ESF wuerde weichen...

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