Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Analysten gefallen die Expansionspläne des Produzenten

    Kanadische Barrick setzt auf den Ausbau der Goldproduktion

    Von Gerd Braune

    Die kanadische Barrick Gold Corporation ist bereits heute Kanadas größter Goldproduzent. Weltweit ist die Gesellschaft die Nummer drei. Und sie will weiter wachsen. Bis zum Jahr 2007 soll die Goldproduktion von 4,9 bis fünf Mill. Unzen in diesem Jahr auf 6,8 bis sieben Mill. Unzen steigen.


    OTTAWA. In dem Kurs der Aktie, die in Toronto, New York, London, Zürich und Paris notiert wird, haben sich die Expansionsabsichten noch nicht niedergeschlagen. Doch die Analysten bleiben optimistisch.


    Zu dem Wachstum sollen vier neue Goldminen beitragen, die in den nächsten zwei Jahren die Förderung aufnehmen werden. Nach Firmenangaben werden die Produktionskosten im Schnitt unter 200 US- Dollar pro Unze liegen. Zudem kündigte Barrick an, dass mit dem Pascua-Lama-Projekt im Grenzgebiet von Chile und Argentinien der Bau einer fünften Mine in Angriff genommen wird. Diese soll 2009 in Betrieb gehen. Die in Bau befindlichen Minen Veladero (Argentinien), Lagunas Norte (Peru), Cowal (Australien) und Tulawaka (Tansania) und die Entscheidung für Pascua-Lama „stellen ein völlig neues Kapitel in der Entwicklung von Barrick dar“, meinte Präsident Greg Wilkins. Das Tagebauprojekt Pascua-Lama hat laut Barrick bewiesene und wahrscheinliche Reserven von insgesamt 16,9 Mill. Unzen Gold und 635 Mill. Unzen Silber.


    Im zweiten Quartal erzielte die kanadische Gesellschaft einen Gewinn von 34 Mill. US-Dollar oder sechs Cents je Aktie. Dies war deutlich weniger als im zweiten Quartal 2003 mit 59 Mill. Dollar und elf Cents je Aktie. Niedrigere Goldverkäufe und höhere Kosten seien nur zum Teil durch höhere Goldpreise ausgeglichen worden, hieß es. Mit zu dem Gewinnrückgang beigetragen hat die Auflösungen von Hedge- Positionen (Vorabverkäufen), die eine Sonderbelastung von 26 Mill. Dollar zur Folge hatten. Auch die Produktion war mit 1,28 Mill. Unzen leicht rückläufig.


    Die Hedge-Positionen wurden im zweiten Quartal um 850 000 Unzen und im Gesamtjahr um 1,65 Mill. Unzen verringert. Die Hedge-Preise sind langfristig festgelegt. Sinkt der Marktpreis, gewinnt das Unternehmen, steigen die Preise, wie es beim Gold der Fall war, erzielt das Unternehmen geringere Gewinnspannen. Im zweiten Quartal, so berichtet Barrick, wurde auf Grund der Hedge- Verträge ein durchschnittlicher Preis von 372 Dollar pro Unze erzielt verglichen mit einem Spot- Markt-Preis von rund 393 Dollar. Bereits 2003 hat das Unternehmen daher beschlossen, kein Hedging mehr zu betreiben


    Trotzdem hält John Ing, Chef des Investmenthauses Maison Palcements Canada in Toronto, das Hedging für problematisch. Es sei sinnvoll, das Hedge-Book zu verringern, doch wirke sich dies belastend auf die Bilanz aus. Und trotz des bereits erfolgten Abbaus befänden sich noch Hedge-Verpflichtungen über 13,9 Mill. Unzen in den Büchern. Die größte Herausforderung läge allerdings in den schwindenden Goldreserven. Einige von Barricks Minen seien „sehr reif“, so Ing und die Pierina-Mine nähere sich ihrem Ende. „Barrick muss eine Menge Geld investieren, um die Reserven zu ersetzen“, sagt der Maison-Experte.


    „Wir haben Barrick weiter gern“, urteilt Barry Allan von Research Capital in Toronto. Er begründet dies mit den Niedrig-Kosten-Minen und dem „organischen Wachstum der Produktion“ durch Projekte, die schon im Besitz von Barrick sind. Allan rät daher zum Kauf und setzt ein Kursziel von 34 kanadischen Dollar (rund 25,5 US-Dollar) auf Jahressicht. Er erwartet, dass Barrick von 2004 bis 2006 weitere Hedge-Bestände abbauen wird.


    Auch Michael Jalonen von Merrill Lynch empfiehlt den Kauf der Aktie. Nach seiner Einschätzung hat Barrick „eine der stärksten Bilanzen“ im nordamerikanischen und weltweiten Goldbergbau. Für 2004 hat Merrill Lynch die Vorhersage für den Gewinn pro Aktie von 24 auf 21 US-Cents zurückgestuft, erwartet aber für 2005 auf Grund der steigenden Goldproduktion einen Gewinn von 35 Cents pro Aktie. Positiv bewerten die Analysten, dass Ende 2005 und in 2006 neue Minen in Betrieb gehen sollen. Für 2007 sieht Jalonen auf der Basis eines Goldpreises von dann 375 Dollar pro Unze einen Gewinn von 63 Cents pro Aktie.



    HANDELSBLATT, Montag, 02. August 2004, 07:02 Uhr

    Quelle: http://www.handelsblatt.com

    South Africa could lose top gold ranking
    By Barry FitzGerald
    Garimpeiro
    August 2, 2004



    The Springboks' defeat by the Wallabies made the South African miners who stayed on after the Diggers & Dealers bash wish they had not come.


    There was a big roll-up of South Africans at last week's Diggers & Dealers bash. They came in numbers to mix the business of the bash with the pleasure of getting to Subiaco Oval for the Tri-Nations Test between the Wallabies and the Springboks on Saturday night.


    But at the end of it all, they were wishing they had stayed home. Unlike the Australian mining sector, which is pumped, the South African sector is struggling to come to grips with the surge in the value of the rand. The Springboks' loss to the Wallabies just added to the misery, particularly as the winning try for Australia was scored by a former South African, Clyde Rathbone.


    Rugby is not the only thing the South Africans could be losing. There is a real chance Australia could grab its ranking as the world's biggest gold producer. The word from the mournful South African brigade at the Diggers & Dealers bash was that the unthinkable might actually happen.



    According to figures from Melbourne-based consultants Surbiton Associates, Australia overtook the US as the world's second-largest gold producer in 2003. At the bash, Surbiton's Sandra Close told Garimpeiro there was now a "fair chance" that the Aussies might knock off the South Africans within the next few years.


    You might be asking whether it matters, given that South African companies such as AngloGold and Gold Fields own a big chunk of the Australian industry as a result of a string of takeovers and acquisitions in recent years. It does matter for a number of very good reasons.


    Gold is plugged in to the China boom as much as any other metal, so any squeeze on new mine supplies has to have a price impact. But more important would be the effect of sliding South African production on the country's economic and social framework.


    Despite the upbeat mood in the Australian gold sector, more exploration is essential, as many new projects are simply recycled old mines.Gold production is a huge employer in South Africa, where the mines are deep and based on labor-intensive mining of narrow reefs. Throw tens of thousands of skilled miners out of work and it won't be long before things get nasty. That's why the world's central banks got together a few years back and signed the Washington accord at the urging of black US senators.


    The accord set out a controlled program for the sale of gold by the central banks. Such sales can be a major downer for the gold price because of the huge amount of gold that remains in central bank vaults around the world.


    The accord was struck when gold was testing $US250 an ounce and there were fears that if it fell further, the South African economy would be greatly weakened, creating huge social dislocation with implications for the entire African continent.


    That the accord worked is reflected in the fact that gold hasn't looked back since.


    The same cannot be said for the South African gold sector. Gold production has been trending down since the heady days of 1970 when production peaked at 1000 tonnes. Last year's output was 376 tonnes, from 395 tonnes in 2002.


    Close said the the strong rand, a function of South Africa's relatively high interest rates, was causing real grief among the higher-cost South African producers and putting pressure on companies such as Harmony to close some of their operations. In contrast, the near to medium-term outlook in Australia is much brighter. As highlighted at Diggers & Dealers, Australia has large projects such as Telfer and Boddington as well as a number of smaller projects in the pipeline.


    Always one to deliver a punch to both sides of politics, Close said that despite the upbeat mood in the Australian gold sector, the industry was still living on borrowed time and more exploration was essential. Many new projects are simply recycled old mines, and new greenfields discoveries have been few and far between.


    She said it was hard to imagine South Africa losing the top spot, held for a century, but in the gold industry nothing can be taken for granted.


    Close is the Australian industry's resident expert on gold production. She tracked the boom in local output from the meagre 18 tonnes a year of the early '80s through to the 300 tonnes-plus levels of recent years.


    Close has put it all down in a useful tome, The Great Gold Renaissance. The Untold Story of The Modern Australian Gold Boom. It was selling well at Diggers & Dealers, which is no surprise given some entrepreneurial promotion. Gold coloured ads for the book were posted just about everywhere in Kalgoorlie, including in the Gents at the Palace Hotel, as well as at the Exchange Hotel across the road.
    http://www.theage.com.au/artic…73750.html?oneclick=true#

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    14:59 Mon 2 Aug 2004
    US Special: is America's cup half full or half empty?


    .....



    American foreign policy, however, is unlikely to decide the election by itself. The other key issue is the economy. Here the immediate future is clearer: the economy is recovering relatively strongly and will continue to do well this year. Gross domestic product growth was a healthy 4.4% in the first quarter. Forecasters suggest full-year growth for 2004 will come in at a similar level. Corporate profits have risen strongly. Historically low interest rates and massive tax cuts finally did the trick.



    The jobs market has roared into life too after a seemingly interminable delay. No less than 1.4 million jobs have been created since non-farm payrolls hit their low in August 2003. Some 947,000 of the increase occurred in March, April and May alone. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.6% from 6.4% in the summer last year. Wages have begun to tick up.


    The figures suggest the US economy is in a reasonable state. ‘We’ve seen employment growth pick up,’ says Gus Faucher, a senior economist at Economy.com. ‘It was the last piece of the puzzle. Assuming it continues to do so, I would agree the US economy is in relatively good shape.’ Sharon Stark, a strategist for Legg Mason Wood Walker, concurs. ‘The US economy does seem to be doing okay. The boost from tax cuts and accommodative Fed policy has been supportive. There has been an encouraging increase in corporate profits. Hopefully business investment will pick up too.’



    Yet, despite impressive official figures and the soothing words of economists, recent polls show Americans are gloomier about the economy. How to square their depressed sentiment with the data? One answer is to take a long rather than short view. It shows more jobs have been lost than created since Bush came to power in 2000, despite the recent burst of hiring. Altogether America has lost 1.2 million jobs since that date. The figure is higher if government jobs are excluded.


    Republican analysts expect voters’ mood to improve over the rest of the year as more people feel the effects of the healthier economy. The Democrats, on the other hand, concentrate on Bush’s long-term record since he came to office. Last month, for instance, Kerry argued the US economy was ‘not working for the average American’, adding: ‘You put in a week’s work, you ought to be able to take care of your family, you ought to be able to pay your bills.’ In reality, the economy is neither as bad as Democrats would contend nor as good as Bush and his team would argue – another reason to expect a close race for the top job at the White House.



    Sadly, neither candidate spends enough time on some of America’s longer-term economic issues, beyond unconvincing soundbites promising to make things better. One problem, for instance, stems from American’s relatively high personal debt levels. They could slow the economy since interest rates are going up. ‘Traditionally people cut down debt levels in a recession, but that didn’t happen last time around,’ Faucher explains. ‘So as rates go up, the lower and middle classes could cut back spending – the lower and middle classes are the ones likely to be most affected. They haven’t repaired balance sheets, rates are going up and tax cuts have run their course.’


    Other major concerns include the US’ twin $500 billion (£276 billion) trade and budget deficits, the question as to just how the country can afford to pay for the impending retirement of the baby boomer generation and rapidly spiralling healthcare costs. Over time, resolving all these problems could well lead to slower economic growth. But instead of worrying about how it can afford the future it wants, America leverages to grab all it can now. It is hardly surprising that neither Bush nor Kerry want to engage in a thorough discussion of this thorny problem.



    Nor, it seems, is Wall Street overly concerned. Last year’s strong rally has taken stock valuations to levels that look a little pricey. The S&P 500 index, for instance, sits on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 22, compared with a long-term average of 15.5. Since prices have been largely flat this year – the S&P 500 is up around 2% in dollar terms – investors seem comfortable with the overall economic situation. Upbeat investment professionals say the pause in the ‘price’ part of the price-to-earnings ratio actually makes the case for backing the stockmarket more compelling, since the economy is strong with corporate profits growing, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year.



    Not everyone shares that view however. Take Gordon Grender, manager of the GAM North American Growth fund, who holds a AAA-rating for his top fund management skills. Grender says: ‘The factors that seem to be of most concern to investors at present are the outlook for employment and the oil price. The trends for both are reasonably favourable. The oil price has fallen significantly from its recent high while the economy has continued to add jobs, although we have concerns that investors are becoming too optimistic about recent figures showing strong payroll growth.



    'While the headline unemployment rate is 5.6%, the all-inclusive unemployment rate of 9.7% compares with a rate of 10.1% a year ago – a good, but not great, improvement. We remain cautious about the outlook for US stocks in general, owing to what seem to us to be high valuation levels but, as always, we continue to seek reasonably priced investment opportunities.’



    Meanwhile Jonathan Asante, the chief economist at Framlington and manager of its International Growth fund, also strikes a note of a caution. He says: ‘We believe that the stockmarket still underestimates the extent of interest rate rises. Our view for some time is that short rates should be around 3% at this stage in the cycle, yet consensus expectations are for just 2.4% by the end of the year and 3.3% by the middle of 2005. Based on our views rising US bond yields will pose a threat to equity indices and will have a particularly negative impact on riskier assets.’



    The stockmarket is another issue both Republicans and Democrats say will work in their favour come the election. Again, they can do so because of the contrast between short- and longer-term performance. The S&P 500, for instance, rose 26.4% last year and almost double that from its low point in March 2003. This is good news for supporters of the Grand Old Party. Yet the index’s annual average performance since Bush took office is a fall of around 2%, according to research by US firm Northern Trust Investments. That plays into the Democrat’s hands. Massive numbers of Americans have some of their wealth tied up in the stockmarket. How will its performance affect their thinking at the ballot box? Hard to say – like Iraq and the economy, it’s just too close to call.



    * This article first appeared in the July edition of Citywire Funds Insider magazine.
    http://www.citywire.co.uk/part…t.asp?section=0&vid=67069


    Die tatsächliche Arbeitslosigkeit liegt trotz aller Flexibilität, Deregulierung und kaum vorhandenem Sozialnetz fast bei 10%. Kein erfolgreiches Vorbild. Die bei uns gemeldete 10-11% Arbeitslosigkeit ist allerdings auch nur "Headline" Arbeitslosigkeit. Am Freitag wird´s wieder spannend, wenn die neuesten Headline Unemployment Ziffern gemeldet werden.


    Der Begriff "headline" erinnert mich an die headline earnings von Droopy, die, wenn man sich das Zahlenwerk genauer anschaute, sich in Verluste verwandelten.

    Vermutlich hat der plötzliche Goldpreisanstieg etwas mit der Meldung über die schlechter als erwarteten Verbraucherausgaben im Juni zu tun.


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    U.S. June Consumer Spending Falls 0.7%; Incomes Up



    Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Spending by U.S. consumers fell in June for the first time in nine months as auto sales declined and income growth slowed, the government reported.


    Expenditures on goods and services dropped 0.7 percent during the month after rising 1 percent in May ,the Commerce Department said in Washington. Incomes rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.6 percent. The decline in spending was the first since September 2003 and the largest since September 2001.


    The numbers suggest that gasoline prices in excess of $2 a gallon, 30-year mortgage rates higher than 6 percent and the end of tax refunds held down spending. The number of jobs added in June fell to less than half the increase in May, which held back income growth. A rebound in hiring is likely to push up incomes and spending for the rest of 2004, economists said.


    ``The economy hit a pothole in June,'' said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompson in Chicago. ``The question is whether the economy will rebound. I believe it will, and I don't believe this is the beginning of a major slowdown.''


    The larger-than-expected drop in spending pushed up the price of Treasury securities. The 4 3/4 percent note maturing in 2014 gained 1/32, pulling the yield down 1 basis point to 4.44 percent as of 8:33 p.m. in New York. The yield had risen to 4.48 percent earlier in the day.


    Incomes


    The gain in incomes in June was the smallest since September, when they fell. The government said manufacturing payrolls were unchanged after increasing $5.1 billion in May. Payrolls in services industries fell $3.2 billion after increasing $27.3 billion. All wages and salaries fell $2.7 billion after rising $35 billion.


    Economists expected spending to fall 0.1 percent, according to the median of 63 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. They had also expected a 0.3 percent increase in incomes after a 0.6 percent rise.


    Inflation Index


    The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation tied to the report, increased 0.2 percent in June after rising 0.4 percent in May.


    The index increased 2.5 percent from June 2003 after rising the same from May to May. Prices excluding food and energy prices, a less-volatile gauge tracked by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other policy makers, rose 0.1 percent from May to June this year and were up 1.5 percent from June 2003, a sign that inflation has tamed.


    Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.5 percent. Wages and salaries were unchanged after rising 0.6 percent.


    The personal savings rate was 2 percent in June, compared with 1.2 percent in May. The indicator weighs current income from wages, salaries, businesses and government payments against spending. It doesn't account for borrowed money, income from investments, or withdrawals from prior savings.


    Adjusted for the increase in prices, spending fell 0.9 percent in June after rising 0.6 percent in May.


    Spending on durable goods such as autos, furniture, and other long-lasting items fell 5.8 percent, adjusted for inflation, after rising 3.7 percent.


    Autos


    .....


    July Rebound


    A rebound may have occurred in July. J.C. Penney Co., the largest owner of department stores in the U.S. after Sears, Roebuck, & Co., reported yesterday that sales increased last month, helping drive up profits. Sales in July were 8.1 percent higher than a year earlier at stores open at least a year, the Dallas-based company reported.


    Federal reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee on July 20 that the surge in energy prices may not hold.


    ``Those higher prices, by eroding households' disposable income, have accounted for at least some of the observed softness in consumer spending of late, a softness which should prove short- lived,'' Greenspan said.


    The economy is expected to grow 4.5 percent this year, the fastest rate since 1999, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from June 25 to July 6.


    Rising Crude Oil


    Still, prices of crude oil rose to a record last week on concern that supplies would be inadequate in the face of rising demand.


    ``There's been a dramatic withdrawal of cash from consumers over the past few months'' because of high energy prices, William Zadrozny, president and chief executive officer of Siemens Financial Services, the Iselin, New Jersey, lending unit of Siemens AG, said in an interview Friday. ``If oil prices get under control, we're going to see a very optimistic outlook going into 2005.''


    Economists said more people need to have jobs for consumer spending to improve. July payrolls may have risen to 241,000 from 112,00 in June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department reports Friday on payrolls.
    Improved Confidence


    The prospect of a rebound in job growth has buoyed consumer optimism, which economists said may herald increased spending. U.S. consumer sentiment improved for a second straight month in July, a survey by the University of Michigan found.


    ``Confidence surveys suggest that the slowdown in consumer spending may prove temporary,'' Bill Dudley, chief U.S. economist at Goldman, Sachs in New York, said.


    A Bloomberg survey of economists showed that U.S auto sales probably rebounded in July, as General Motors and Ford Motor Co. offered discounts to clear dealer lots before new models are introduced. Vehicles probably sold at an annual rate of 16.8 million vehicles, according to the median forecast.


    ....
    http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…b9Dty2g&refer=news_index#


    Für Freitag werden also die neu geschaffenen Stellen mit 241.000 erwartet. Ist wieder eine Überraschung drin?

    Silver Market Waiting For Funds To Return -


    August 04 2004 Australien Investment review



    Consumers worldwide are rapidly warming to digital photography and that is having its impact on silver demand, with around 20% of global usage of the metal still in traditional photography.
    The bad news doesn’t stop there, as digital x-rays are expected to take over from photographic x-rays sometime soon. Although the technology is still expensive, digital x-rays have many advantages over traditional x-rays, according to industry watchers.
    The digital x-ray is available immediately as it does not have to be developed, it can be sent over the internet for a quick second opinion and it can be stored and recalled more efficiently.


    Canadian headquartered metal traders ScotiaMocatta suggest that demand for silver may fall to weaker than expected levels during the northern hemisphere summer period, also pointing to the current weak demand from India where the end of the wedding season and the start of the monsoons have dampened retail buying.

    Also, it has now become apparent that speculative funds have deserted the silver market, with the latest data showing net long fund positions as having fallen to 25,448 contracts, down from April’s highs of 56,091 contracts.
    Enough for ScotiaMocatta to conclude that, under these circumstances, it is difficult to see silver prices regaining the high ground around US$7/oz to US$8/oz anytime soon.


    Silver often trades alongside gold as a safe haven alternative to the US dollar, but contrary to gold, silver can fall back on strong industrial demand, which is, despite gradual declining use in photography, still expected to climb over the coming years.


    The experts at ScotiaMocatta believe that, as an industrial metal, silver is set to benefit from a pick up in the electronics market and from greater jewellery demand as platinum jewellery becomes out priced and white gold, which uses silver, and silver jewellery gain market share.
    Over the past thirteen years there has been a supply deficit in silver, which has averaged some 80 Moz per year, or 10% of global demand.
    On balance, earlier this year the metal broker forecast that silver would trade in a range between US$5.00/oz and US$7.00/oz throughout calendar 2004 with prices averaging US$6.25/oz but with the risk biased to the upside.


    One of the factors that could cause a surprise to the upside is stronger than expected silver demand for monetary use. But for the silver price to regain its former strength, the funds will have to return first, the experts state.

    „Die Menschen sind so einfältig und hängen so sehr vom Eindruck des Augenblickes ab, dass einer, der sie täuschen will, stets jemanden findet, der sich täuschen lässt.“ (Niccolò Machiavelli)

    Zitat

    Also, it has now become apparent that speculative funds have deserted the silver market, with the latest data showing net long fund positions as having fallen to 25,448 contracts, down from April’s highs of 56,091 contracts.
    Enough for ScotiaMocatta to conclude that, under these circumstances, it is difficult to see silver prices regaining the high ground around US$7/oz to US$8/oz anytime soon.


    ... sehr logisch. :rolleyes:
    M.E. wir hier aus der richtigen Meldung der falsche Schluss gezogen. Sorgen um den (kurzfristigen) Silberpreis würde ich mir machen, wenn es umgekehrt wäre und grosse spekulative Positionen bei den (Hedge-)Fonds in den Büchern stehen, da diese Fonds ziemlich leicht zu einem Abverkauf dieser Positionen gebracht werden können (siehe Anfangs April...).
    So hingegen bedeutet obige Meldung m.E., dass das Risiko eines starken Preisrückganges im Moment relativ klein ist, hingegen gute Möglichkeiten auf Preissteigerungen bestehen, wegen physischer Nachfrage und/oder falls diese Fonds wieder Silberpositionen eingehen (und das kann sehr schnell passieren...)

    at goldbugs


    Kannst du mir mal weiterhelfen. Verkauft fanny may ihre Schulden? hab ich das richtig verstanden. Bei diesem Verein, steht doch ein Grossteil der amerikanischen Häuslebauer in der Kreide, oder? Und jetzt verticken die die Schuldbriefe? Wer kauft die denn? Weisst du mehr darüber?

    at alle


    Ich hab zufällig ein paar newcrest. Was würdet ihr mir als echte Cracks denn nun empfehlen. Weiter warten, jetzt verkaufen oder gar nichts machen? Ich hab da nicht so die Ahnung? Was wäre wohl der normale Gang der Dinge.


    Besten Dank für allfällige Tipps

    Im Focus Money (Nr. 33/5.8.04/S.47) wird OceanaGold empfohlen:


    Erstmals rückte im vergangenen Monat OceanaGold in das Blickfeld eines Bankanalysten von ABN Amro. Ergebnis seiner Betrachtung: Die Aktie ist ein Kauf. Der Goldförderer betreibt mit Marcraes Goldfield, Reefton Goldfield und Sams Creek drei Minen in Neuseeland.


    Zielstrebig baut die in Australien beheimatete Gesellschaft ihre Förderung aus. Die Produktion lag 2002 noch bei 162000 Unzen. In diesem Jahr sollen 183000 Unzen und bis 2007 zwischen 350000 und 400000 Unzen gefördert werden. Die Gesamtkosten der Förderung dürften 2004 bei rund 430 australischen Dollar (301 US-Dollar) pro Unze liegen.


    Der Minenwert verfügt über nachgewiesene Reserven in Höhe von 6,7 Mio. Unzen Gold. Eine Goldförderung über die kommenden 10 Jahre hinaus ist damit gesichert. Der Gewinn pro Aktie dürfte von 2005 bis 2006 von 5,3 auf 8,4 Cent (4,87 Euro-Cent) steigen. Dies entspricht einem Plus von 56 Prozent.


    Fazit: Basierend auf den nachgewiesenen Reserven ist die Aktie um rund 10 Prozent unterbewertet. Die hohen Ressourcen, die im Boden vermutet werden, sind im Kurs nicht eingepreist.


    KGV 04/05: 15,7 / 15,7
    Gewinn je Aktie 04/05 (geschätzt): 0,03 / 0,03

    Auch die Zahlen für die Vormonate wurde um 61.000 gesenkt:


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    U.S. July Payrolls Rise 32,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 5.5%


    Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 32,000 workers to payrolls in July, just an eighth of the number forecast and adding to evidence that a slowdown in economic growth may extend into the third quarter. [b]


    [b]Job gains also were revised lower for the preceding two months, to 78,000 for June and 208,000 in May, or 61,000 less than originally stated, the Labor Department said in Washington. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent, the lowest since October 2001, from 5.6 percent as a separate survey of households showed a gain in employment.


    ``We are stuck in a soft patch and it may not be as transitory as some of us thought,'' Sung Won-Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said before the report.


    The weaker-than-expected job gains may not keep the Federal Reserve from raising its target interest rate Tuesday yet may make them more likely to delay future increases, economists said. The weakest jobs report this year also may fuel criticism President George W. Bush faces from Democratic challenger John F. Kerry, who says Bush has not done enough to help the economy. No economist a Bloomberg News survey expected fewer than 170,000 jobs in July.
    ....


    Jobs and Politics


    Economists predicted payrolls would rise by 240,000 last month, the median of 74 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, following a previously reported 112,000 increase in June. They projected the unemployment rate would hold at 5.6 percent. Estimates ranged from 170,000 to 350,000.


    Employment in service-producing industries, including retailers, banks and government agencies, rose 14,0000 last month, the fewest since August, after a 76,000 gain in June, according to the Labor Department. Professional and business services and education and health services were the only categories that increased.


    Manufacturers gained 10,000 jobs last month, resuming growth after a revised decline of 1,000 in June.


    The U.S. now has added 1.2 million jobs this year.


    ....


    The economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the slowest in more than year, as rising energy prices cut into consumer spending, the government said last week. The pace of growth may pick up this quarter and average 4.5 percent this year, the most since 1999, according to the median survey in a separate Bloomberg News survey.


    ``We have had great productivity increases running at 7 percent, 8 percent the last two years,'' Dieter Zetsche, chief executive of DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler division, said in an interview Wednesday. ``You need considerably more volume to offset that before you can hire people. Flat employment is what we expect to happen based on considerable growth for us and ongoing productivity gains.''
    .....
    http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…=a73girUfUKP4&refer=home#

    Kalle,
    nichts Neues von Mahendra, hält sich in letzter Zeit mit Veröffentlichungen zurück.


    Sein (wahrscheinlich nicht mehr erreichbares Kursziel) bis Mitte nächster Woche war 416 $/Unze



    DAX


    Wieland Staud in einer Chartanalyse von Ende Juli ("Wertpapier"):
    Die gute Botschaft vorneweg: Trotz der empfindlichen Einbußen, die sich der Dax in der ersten Julihälfte geleistet hat, bleibt es bei unserem Kursziel von 4400 bis 4500 Punkten. ...
    Sollte der Dax trotz allem und ganz klar entgegen unserer bestehenden Einschätzung unter das analytische Stop-Loss von 3726 (Schlusskurs-Jahrestief 2004 ) fallen, übernehmen die Bären das Ruder.


    Dax jetzt bei 3733.

    Gerade bei Reuters veröffentlicht:


    http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=560653&section=news
    http://de.biz.yahoo.com/040806/71/45kst.html


    http://reuters.de/newsPackageA…oryID=560681&section=news
    http://reuters.de/newsPackageA…oryID=560663&section=news


    Diese vier Nachrichten sollen als grober Überblick über diesen, von der
    Berichtsseite her "positiv zu wertenden" Freitag genügen. Wer angesichts
    solcher enttäuschender Zahlen noch glauben mag, dass es einen
    "Aufschwung" gibt, dem kann man wohl nicht mehr helfen.
    Ich sage es ja öfter, aber der Spruch passt:
    "In der Spekulationsblase, die angeblich im Jahre 2000 geplatzt ist,
    steckt immer noch genügend Luft". Die Frage bleibt: Wann kommt das
    nächste Platzen?


    Gruss


    Warren

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