Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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The John Brimelow Report

Bears getting worried?

Monday, September 13, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.44, PM $7.53, with world gold at $401.30 and $400.60. Very high; lavish for legal imports. The rupee reached a two-month high this afternoon, and the Bombay stock market closed at the highest level since the advent of the leftish Congress government in May. India is clearly lending powerful support to world gold at present prices.

The other Eastern physical markets seem supportive also. Dubai premiums (as derived from Standard London’s website) were on the high side today, and the various grades of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (if they are to be trusted) appear to be at $1+ premiums. (Shanghai updating has been erratic recently.)

TOCOM is not interested. Volume fell yet again, by 24% to the equivalent of only 10,090 Comex lots, the active contract closed down 3 yen, and world gold fell 55c from the NY close. Open interest fell the equivalent of 979 Comex lots to equal only 87,752 Comex. (In NY on Friday, gold traded 39,512 contracts; open interest fell 5,660 to 242,258 lots.)

While sufficient selling was forthcoming on Friday to hold gold down below the $401.60 spot 200-day moving average, several observers acknowledge robust physical off take. JP Morgan’s "Metals & Energy Strategist" has become sufficiently worried to cover half their short:

"The market saw follow-through selling to 395 on the break of 401/00, but has seen a strong bounce from there. Essentially we remain trapped in a 390 to 415 channel and a break of channel support is needed to confirm our bearish outlook for a move to 365/355."

The CFTC data indicates that the liquidation swing is well advanced. Open interest is down some 30,000 contracts since August 25 (93.3 tonnes), about half way between recent extremes. Friday’s appreciable open interest drop on a slightly firmer price might suggest shorts (beyond JP Morgan) have started to cover.

Saturday’s Dutch announcement of further gold sales, even when combined with the strong hint of Italian sales also, does not really comprise news: only if the Washington Accords are to be exceeded will the market be impressed. But it is interesting that the Dutch intend to carry over to WA2 50 tonnes they failed to sell in the previous phase of the Washington Accord: suggesting that at least the Portuguese disposals were not planned for, and may well have been the denouement of ill judged call sales.

Initiative is steadily passing out of the paws of the Bears; although Barclays is quite right to wonder if

"Friday’s rebound is sufficient to stave off recent selling pressure."

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Let’s hear it for a free press in Canada and in the US and for our democratic ways! What a joke! The Sprott Special Report on gold has been out for over 3 weeks. It was not covered responsibly by one financial journalist in either country.

The DOW ran out of steam, only gaining 3 to 10,316. The DOG rose again, climbing 16 to 1910.

14:01 Treasury budget ($41.1B) in August vs consensus of ($40.0B)
The deficit in August 2003 was ($76.6B).
* * * * *

From The King Report on the massaging of US economic data:

Few people believe the August PPI. It fell 0.2% due to a 5% drop in gasoline prices. The US government bean counters would have us believe that gasoline prices fell in both July and August. Gasoline futures closed on 6/30/04 at 109.25. They closed at 113.92 on 8/31/04. But the charade is even worse than that. On 8/20/04 gasoline futures hit 133.10. They then collapsed. Normally BLS samples for gasoline prices between the 10th and 14th of the month. But it’s uncanny how BLS appears to ‘sample’ on days when prices collapse. Furthermore, this type of analysis provides faulty cost data because it does not reveal where the volume of transactions trade. During the first three weeks on the month, there could’ve been 3x or more volume of trade than in the last week to week and a half. CPI and PPI, or cost of living data, should be calculated using a ‘Volume Weighted Average’ (i.e. VWAP) like daily stock prices.

PPI showed that pipeline inflationary pressures continue to appear as the core crude and core intermediate indices rose by 4.5% and 1.0%, respectively. However, due to some miracle, quarters of similar price pressure never manifest itself in PPI. Of course PPI could not be calculated two different times this year.

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $6 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today, September 13th 2004, an action that pushed the repo pool back up to $59.814 Billion and kept the pool's 30-day moving average turning higher. The pool's ma is setting new records since I began the series. The DOW seems to be slowly responding as its own 30-day ma is inching back up from the recent low.

The DOW is flat so far with gold dipping a bit and the dollar up a bit. A flat DIVG is apparently in the cards for the next few days affording more opportunity to acquire bullion.

The geopolitical situation spins seemingly out of all sense of control. As the stories below indicate, our allies in the "War on Terror", Turkey and The Russian Federation are angry at US actions. And today brings the stark news that a nuke-sized explosion has occurred in Northern North Korea. The mushroom cloud was reported to be 3.5 to 4 kilometers in diameter. While denying it was a nuke, the US authorities failed to indicate what kind of explosion could deliver such a massive cloud. Moreover, the reported twin concussions are a characteristic signature of efficient nuclear detonations according to Theodore Taylor, the grandfather of the miniaturization of the bomb (The Curve of Binding Energy, John McPhee 1975).

The latest gaffe by the US in Iraq:

Turkey reacts with fury to massive US assault on northern Iraqi city

By Patrick Cockburn in Baghdad

12 September 2004

http://news.independent.co.uk/…st/story.jsp?story=560815

The US military assault on Tal Afar, an ethnically Turkmen city in northern Iraq, has provoked a furious reaction from the Turkish government which is demanding the US call off the attack.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As reported last week the events surrounding the Beslan atrocity have profound implications. Vladimir Putin is very angry at the US for harboring a rebel Chechen minister and at Tony Blair for giving asylum to a Chechen terrorist envoy. He calls it what it is...a double standard in Bush's "War on Terror":

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/040911/ap/d851ja1o0.html

"The differences in assessing the Beslan events could lead to the most serious estrangement between Russia and the West since the Soviet times," said Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine.
++++++++++++++

And more about China's growing SPR petroleum project:

China to start filling oil reserves next year

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/def...004_pg5_27

SYDNEY: China, the world¹s second-biggest oil consumer, may begin filling a strategic oil stockpile in the next year as demand at home surges and concerns mount over global supply disruptions, a senior government official said on Monday.
Zhou Dadi, director general of the Energy Research Institute, said China would initially store enough oil to meet demand for 20 days before increasing the stockpile further. ³We are building storage facilities right now ... Within the next year could be a starting point to fill the storage step by step,² Zhou told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Energy
Congress in Sydney.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

And a snap shot of the Sudan/Darfur/oil link:

UN Darfur vote turns scramble for Sudan's oil

http://www.afrol.com/articles/13921?

afrol News, 10 September -

As the UN Security Council is debating a US draft resolution on the Sudan crisis, based on colliding views whether a genocide is or is not happening in Darfur, the issue of Sudan's oil is becoming a key factor. If an oil export embargo is approved, China and India would lose their influence over Sudan's vast oil reserves and a Khartoum regime change would open up these resources to the West. The US is in favour of sanctions, China is against.

The population of Darfur is presently, as the UN puts it, suffering from "the world's worst humanitarian crisis." It is well documented that the Khartoum government bares much of the responsibility for this immense suffering, which the UN calls "ethnic cleansing" and the US yesterday called "genocide". It is however also well documented that the US through its closest African allies, helped train the SLA and JEM Darfuri rebels that initiated Khartoum's violent reaction, as afrol News reported on Tuesday.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Required reading about the number TWO strategic commodity:

Blood and Oil, Klare
Oil: Anatomy of an Industry, Yeomans
And the lucid SFGate.com review:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…004/09/12/RVG488IK0Q1.DTL

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I follow these geopolitical and energy developments because they are a window into the Gold War cooperation status of the involved sovereigns. Any one of a number of unhappy nations (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, France) can decide to break the US gold position by bidding for all the remaining warehouse bullion. This is the event that the Fed dreads for it will trigger their draconian response...to halt trading of gold in order to preserve what little remains. Richard Nixon faced a similar decision in 1971 when he was forced to remove the dollar's gold guarantee and commit the largest default in financial history.

It is only a matter of time.

Mike

It is not only the smaller gold stocks who are receiving scant attention from the investing public:

Bill,

If I can recap what I noticed today, compared to a year ago, weekly NYSE volume (as reported in Barron's) is down by an insignificant 5.8%. Small Cap volume, however, has plunged 73.9%!!! The amazing disconnect between reality and what is reported continues as Reuters has just released an article titled, "Small Stocks Lead the Way on Wall Street."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/
20040911/bs_nm/stocks_week_dc.

It seems to me that the Fed/Administration cannot tolerate a plunging small cap market any more than they can allow a soaring gold price before the election. How many repos would it take to support the Russell 2000 or Wilshire 5000 index to keep it from plunging?

Dollarwise, probably not much. This also satisfies the many owners of Mutual Funds (which I consider a variety of derivative since they derive their NAV from listed stock prices or index values, even if hardly any trades actually take place), who are presumably primed to vote Bush.

In any case, for some reason liquidity has seriously dried up in the small cap sector, and that includes resource stocks.

Best wishes,

Peter R.

On the lighter side:

Anglo-Saxon gold penny could sell for £150,000

By Tim Walker
The Independent, London
Saturday, September 11, 2004

http://news.independent.co.uk/…in/story.jsp?story=560543

A man walking his dog has discovered an Anglo-Saxon gold penny worth up to £150,000. The coin was struck during the reign of King Coenwulf between 796 and 821, on the banks of the river Ivel in Bedfordshire.

The find is likely to provoke keen bidding when it is auctioned in London next month. Though many similar examples survive from the period, the heyday of the Anglo-Saxon kingdom of Mercia, the Ivel coin is the first gold penny found with Coenwulf's portrait.

The dog-walker, and the landowner on whose property the coin was found, are being kept secret. Richard Bishop, a coin specialist at Spink, the London auction house, said: "Even if it were silver, the penny would be very exciting due to its good condition and the quality of the portrait. In gold, it's just unbelievable."

The record price tag for a British gold penny is £149,500 in 1996, for a coin from the reign of Henry III.

-END-

Feedback about The Las Vegas Gold Show from a staunch GATA supporter:

Good evening Bill -

I just got back from the Las Vegas Gold Conference, having left disappointed and frustrated. I thought that the Sprott Report would have made an enormous impact on the gold-bugs in attendance as well as (especially, in fact) the guest speakers.

Turns out, of all the lectures I attended, only Jay Taylor spoke of the Sprott Report, GATA, the suppression of the POG. No attendees spoke of Sprott, at least none that I encountered. No one complained about gold being held back.

The speakers were by and large underinformed. All of them said not to look for a great surge forward in metals for a couple of years. (In Pam Aden's defense, I missed her talk so she may have been an exception. And of course Jay Taylor was an exception, being leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of those monkeys)….

I was thinking to myself at dinner what a waste of money the trip to this conference was, and that I wished I could express my thoughts to someone in charge. This will knock your socks off: in the elevator, a well-dressed gentleman regarded my name badge and said, "You attended the conference; good for you."

And I answered: "Yes, well I'm very disappointed. No one even mentioned the Sprott Report and how it lent credence to GATA claims. What idiots."

"Well," he said, "I know the price of gold has been suppressed."

"You do? No kidding! Good for you!"

"We organized this conference," he added, not expounding who 'we' were.

"Ah, no wonder you're informed. So tell me, what could be more important to a room full of gold-bugs than the suppression of the price of gold?" By this time I was holding the elevator door open, as we'd stopped at his floor. "Tell those speakers for me that they're a bunch of lamebrains, except for Jay Taylor."

"I like Jay Taylor, too," he said. And he exited the elevator. I couldn't believe my luck. Sort of in line with 'ask and you will receive.' I had the chance to vent my anger, and I believe I made an impact on the man, who spoke with a British accent and was quite gentlemanly.

All best,

Marilyn A. Guinnane

To those of you who have contacted your gold companies, thanks so much and well done. For those who have done nothing, well, go ahead let life go by.

Following is a response from a mid-tier gold producer which will give you some idea how pitiful these gold companies are about tackling the most important issue in their industry and why the price of gold is where it is as we go into the fall of 2004.

Hello Bill. After two weeks of trying, the only response I received back regarding Embry report was from this gold company:

I am answering your letter on behalf of our President and Chief Executive Officer. We at xyz gold corporation have known Mr. Embry personally for many years and hold him in the highest esteem. If you read his paper, you will see that he does not really accuse anyone of a conspiracy but does contend that central banks will use any means necessary to control the gold price. Although this not in the best interests of gold producers, it is entirely within their mandate. The prime function of central banks is to regulate their respective currencies. We as gold producers may not like it, but we are probably going to experience some attempts at manipulation for the foreseeable future. It is our belief, however, that the underlying fundamentals of the gold market are so strong that they are unlikely to succeed.

Mike

Vice President, Investor Relations

XYZ Gold Corporation

Repeated attempts to reach WHT, GSS, AEM, EGO, CBJ have been ignored. Keep up the good work……

I'm even more disappointed that the only other response was from WHT saying Ian will be forwarded my message. They're all running scared for some reason. There's got to be more to it. I'm going to resend my message to them daily and become a pain in their ass!

Just started asking them about World Gold Council involvement.

Steve Heggy

Some thoughts:

That is pathetic. Central banks (plural) using any means to control the price is not a conspiracy? Is this guy who responded to Steve retarded? These central banks are going through bullion banks that have knowledge of the price manipulation which the general public does not. That is against American anti-trust laws as The Gold Cartel forces made hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars over the years on inside information the rest of us were not privy too.

There is NO MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE to gold shareholders than what the price of gold is. What is the matter with these deadbeats? All the gold industry has to do is to START TALKING about these issues with the press; start asking for answers to the many questions posed by Sprott and GATA, and The Gold Cartel would begin to squirm big time. The pressure needs to be put on the cabal and it is the gold producers who must do it. Certainly all World Gold Council gold producer members should answer the devastating charges made against the WGC by GATA about their disingenuous presentation of the BIS numbers vis-à-vis the gold producer hedge reductions.

Oh good grief, here is another pathetic response from a mid-tier gold producer sent to us by Steve Heggy.

There is no comment to your question at this time Steve. Those who analyze the industry clearly have many views. ZXY Gold Corporation believes we are in a period of rising gold prices continuing into next year.
Thank you,

Manager, Investor Relations

ZXY Gold Corporation

Think of all the work GATA has done in an attempt to help these people over the years, and of all the work the Sprott people put in to make their case, and THIS is the best a gold company can come up with?? It is revolting.

I would hope every Café member who is a Golden Star Resources shareholder has, or will contact GSS management about all of these issues presented by the Sprott/GATA camp. Whatever GSS eventually does is their business, however, we all should demand reasoned answers to our questions and requests for information. To say nothing, or respond like the twits did above, is completely unacceptable.

Golden Star contacts:

CFO Alan Marter at Amarter@gsr.com

Alan or CEO Peter Bradford at 1 800 553 8435

More evidence gold mine supply will wane next year even as world gold demand picks up:

TORONTO, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Gold miner Cambior Inc. (CBJ.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it expects gold production will decrease over the next four years and said it will cut 130 jobs as part of a reorganization at its Doyon mine in Quebec.

The Quebec-based miner, which also has operations in South America, said total production would decrease from 705,000 ounces this year to 663,000 ounces in 2005.

In 2006, Cambior projected gold production would dip further to 570,000 ounces before picking up again in 2007 and 2008 to an estimated 660,000 ounces each of those years.

-END-

Some additional dirt on the Daughters of Gwalia fiasco:

Bill,

i said i would try and find out something about Sons of Gwalia through a local source. The source belongs to a large contracting family which is involved in alot of open cut and mine operations in W. Aust. His suggestion is that S.O.G. realised they were low on large cheaply accessable gold reserves a couple of years ago and in a rash decision paid far too much for the gold assets of a company called Pacmin. S.O.G. appears not to have followed due diligence in the decision and got very expensive to access gold assets, the cost of producing it being far greater than the $600/oz revenue they were receiving. –END-

Before I close this MIDAS. I would like to emphasize that if The Gold Cartel was a defendant in a cirumstantial capital murder case as charged by GATA, a jury of their peers would condemn them to death by virtue of their guilt by beyond a reasonable doubt. However this one particular piece of evidence goes beyond the cirumstantial category:
*(From the Sprott Report, page 25) "For the fourth quarter of 2001, GFMS (Gold Fields Mineral Services) reported that the delta-adjusted hedge book stood at 2924 tonnes. At this point, the notional value of gold derivatives reported to the BIS was $231 billion. However, as of December 31, 2003, the BIS reports gold derivatives of $344 billion. Producer hedging, meanwhile, declined from 2001 to reach 2166 tonnes at year-end 2003. ***

Those FACTS reveal black and white evidence which disclosed the clandestine activities of The Gold Cartel behind the scenes. Every gold financial market reporter or gold producer CEO worth their salt should want to know how this can be? Every gold shareholder should demand that their respective CEO's answer that question!!!

The gold shares continue to meander around. The XAU only gained .27 to 93.02, while the HUI backed off of trendline resistance once more to finish up a modest .96 to 204.03.

Gold and silver share investments remain THE historic investments of a lifetime and few seem to notice or care.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

schuldenblase

Das Du Dich auch wieder einmal zu Wort meldest finde ich schön.

Fakten und Tatsachen zu Ignorieren die gerade jetzt ganz dringend und zwingend für ein physisches Investieren in Gold, und ebenso in physisches Silber sprechen, dafür werden sich diejenigen Leser hier im Thread, die "Warnungen" zur Vorsicht zum Anlass nehmen sollten mit physischen Investitionen in Edelmetallen zurückzuhalten, schon bald mit weit höheren Preisen bezahlen als heute.

Die aufgeschlossenen Leser hier im Thread können sehr gut selbst entscheiden was Fakten, und Tatsachen sind, die für oder gegen ein Engagement in Gold, und Silber sprechen, welche Vorsicht beim Erwerb von Edelmetallen angebracht ist, und was nur Propaganda Argumente von Edelmetall Gegnern, aus der Schublade ihrer "Fiat Money" Nomenclatur darstellen.

Schlussendlich spielt es keine wichtige Rolle mehr wer wann, und zu welchem Preis, dem von vor einem Jahr, oder dem von heute physisch Gold, und Silber als Langzeitanlage gekauft hat. Nur noch, dass man überhaupt Gold, und Silber physisch gekauft hat und auch wirklich real besitzt.

Zu diesem Zeitpunkt werden Warner vor Gold, und Silber wohl nicht mehr unter dem jetzigen User Namen posten?

Gruss

Thaiguru

Silbertaler

Ich denke Du hast völlig Recht, dass wir an einem Kreuzweg stehen.

Die Fakten, Belege, und die Fundamentaldaten sprechen für eine solche Preis Entwicklung nach oben. Ob das Gold Kartell bereits jetzt schon am Ende ihrer Manipulations Möglichkeiten angelangt ist, kann ich noch nicht sicher erkennen. Was sich aber ganz klar abzeichnet ist dass es dem Gold Kartell nicht gelungen ist Gold wieder nachhaltig unter die 400.- Dollar zu drücken. Zudem scheint es dem Kartell immer mehr Probleme zu bereiten, die nötigen Mengen an physischen Edelmetallen verfügbar zu machen, die unbedingt benötigt werden das bestehende riesige jährliche physische Gold und Silber Produktions-Defizit von ca. 1500 Tonnen Gold, und ca. 270 Millionen Unzen Silber pro Jahr ausgleichen zu können. Da nun nach Frankreich, anscheinend, nach neuesten Zeitungsberichten (von der GATA heute gemeldet), auch Italien nichts von Gold Verkäufen wissen will, dürften das sogenannte kürzlich verlängerte Washingthoner Agreement über angekündigte Verkäufe der wichtigsten Zentralbanken, im Umfange von angeblich 500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr, verteilt über eine Laufzeit von 5 Jahren, also total 2500 Tonnen Gold, zur totalen Farce und Gold Preis Manipulation verkommen sein.

Die Zentralbanken wie es scheint, scheinen nicht einmal mehr in der Lage zu sein, die mit einem riesigen, in seinen Auswirkungen damals extrem goldpreisdrückenden "Werbe-Aufwand" angekündigten Gold Verkäufe zustande zu bringen.

Damit steht als weitere Preis Etappe nach oben, mindestens die Tür beim Gold, und Silber ganz weit offen .

Wenn die Gold, und Silber Preise von der FED, und ihren Primary Dealer Banken, etc. nicht mehr kontrolliert werden können, wird alles sehr schnell gehen. Diesen Tag sehe ich dann gegeben, wenn entweder der Gold, oder Silber Handel an der Comex, oder LBMA wegen eines konkreten Liefer Vertragsbruches, oder ganz allgemein wegen mangelder physischer Reserven eingestellt werden muss, oder die Preise beim Gold mehr als 10%, oder 20% beim Silber an einem Handels Tag ansteigen werden.

Darum ist es so wichtig jetzt schon langfristig investiert zu sein, und nicht erst dann, wenn es schon zu spät ist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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Central Banks to announce Gold sales - The 2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - Authenticmoney.com

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weiter......

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