Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    @ Skeptiker


    Noch was: Du hast ja in den letzten Beiträgen vor allem mit der Kursentwicklung argumentiert. M.E. kann können das zwar - was die Vergangenheit betrifft - gute Argumente sein. Als Investor bringen Dir diese Argumente aber herzlich wenig, da sie nichts über die Zukunft aussagen. Falls z.B. die Silberpreise plötzlich in die Höhe schiessen, kannst Du zwar mutmassen, dass die Chinesen das Produktionsdefizit nicht mehr ausgleichen - nur hast Du dann nicht viel mehr als diese Erkenntnis. Denn den guten Investitionszeitpunkt hast Du dann bereits verpasst (falls Du Deine Investitionsentscheide nur von der vergangenen Kursentwicklung abhängig machst).


    Gruss,
    Thom

    Thom
    Meine Argumentationskette ist folgende:
    Die vorherrschende Meinung hier ist, dass die Silberpreisexplosion infolge des Produktionsdefizits unmittelbar bevorsteht.
    Entscheidend ist der Moment, an dem die Chinesen aufhören, das Produktionsdefizit mit ihren Beständen auszugleichen. Die Chinesen äußern sich selten, nun haben sie sich geäußert, warum sollten sie für die Zukunft ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel setzen, wenn sie die zu erwartende Preisspirale mit verbalen Tricksereien ohnehin nicht aufhalten könnten? Die Kursentwicklung stützt zudem die These, dass der Moment der Preisexplosion nicht unmittelbar bevorsteht, denn im Moment der Verknappung sind die Futures von untergeordneter Bedeutung, bzw. explodieren ebenfalls.
    Zudem sehe ich einige in meinen Augen lukrativere Alternativen. Ich gehe dann lieber das Risiko ein, die ersten 20% nicht mitzunehmen ,als noch jahrelang zu warten. Mein Schwerpunkt war z.B. eher der schwächelnde Dollar (Leistungsbilanzdefizit, Schulden, Geldmenge usw.) Hätte ich stattdessen in Barren investiert, wären mir lange Zeit Gewinne entgangen. Es gibt eben nicht nur Ag und Au, sondern einen Kosmos von Anlagemöglichkeiten.
    Zum Öl:
    Klar wird Öl eines Tages substituiert werden müssen, aber überlege mal wo Erdöl z.Z. noch unersetzlich ist, oder eine sehr wichtige Rolle spielt (Heizen, Sprit, Kunststoffe, Medikamente usw.). Die Vorräte in der Erdkruste gehen tatsächlich zur Neige und jeder Liter Sprit, der verbrannt ist, ist unwiderruflich verloren.
    Jetzt vergleiche das mal mit Gold. Eine Ende der Vorräte (Lagerstätten) ist überhaupt nicht absehbar. Durch ihre chemischen Eigenschaften lassen sich Edelmetalle gut recyceln und welche Funktion ist lebenswichtiger, Heizen und Sprit oder Münzen und Schmuck? Wenn es bei Letzterem erforderlich wäre, könnte man es problemlos, sagen wir durch Glasperlen, substituieren.
    Was die praktischen Anlagemöglichkeiten betrifft, so gibt es z.B. von ABN Amro Endlos-Zertifikate, die schon sehr gut gelaufen sind. Bis zu den Wahlen in den USA wäre ich allerdings vorsichtig und diversifizieren kann ja nie schaden.
    Gruß, Skeptiker

    Zitat

    Die Chinesen äußern sich selten, nun haben sie sich geäußert, warum sollten sie für die Zukunft ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel setzen, wenn sie die zu erwartende Preisspirale mit verbalen Tricksereien ohnehin nicht aufhalten könnten?


    Die Chinesen haben ja nur eine Limite genannt, unter welcher sie in Zukunft nicht mehr verkaufen wollten. Sollten sie in Zukunft weniger als bisher verkaufen (und die Silber-Preise deswegen anziehen), setzen sie ja deswegen ihre Glaubwürdigkeit nicht aufs Spiel, sie haben ja nicht Preis- und Marktprognosen oder Absichten über zukünftige Verkaufsmengen abgegeben.


    Zitat

    Die Kursentwicklung stützt zudem die These, dass der Moment der Preisexplosion nicht unmittelbar bevorsteht, denn im Moment der Verknappung sind die Futures von untergeordneter Bedeutung, bzw. explodieren ebenfalls.


    Sicherlich zeigen die Silberpreise im Moment keine dramatische Verknappung an(über das wieso wollen wir jetzt mal nicht weiter diskutieren, da gehen die Meinungen auseinander), was sich auch darin zeigt, dass momentan viele Preisbewegungen vom Futures-Markt her ausgehen (wie Du zu Recht bemerkt hast, wäre das bei einer starken Verknappung viel weniger der Fall).
    Und ich persönlich gehe auch nicht von zweistelligen Silberpreisen schon nächste Woche aus. Da aber der Silbermarkt sehr volatil und eng ist, könnte es im Verhältnis zu anderen Märkten doch relativ schnell zu einer Preisexplosion kommen, sollte eine nachhaltige Verknappung eintreten. M.E. werden wir jedenfalls auch nicht mehr allzu lange warten müssen, bis die Silberpreise deutlich anziehen - wir werden sehen.


    Zum Erdöl: Ohne Zweifel ist es für uns nach wie vor sehr wichtig und ich glaube längerfristig durchaus auch an höhere Ölpreise. Auch die ABN-Zertifikate darauf sind mir bekannt, allerdings hat man da genau das von mir im letzten Beitrag erwähnte Emitenten-Risiko, da es sich um eine Schuldverschreibung handelt.


    Zitat

    Jetzt vergleiche das mal mit Gold. Eine Ende der Vorräte (Lagerstätten) ist überhaupt nicht absehbar


    Das stimmt so nicht, ein Zürcher Professor hat vor einiger Zeit berechnet, wieviel Gold insgesamt mit heutigen Methoden noch abgebaut werden kann.

    Hallo Thom und Skeptiker,


    ich möchte nur mal kurz meine Definition von Preisexplosion vorstellen:
    Eine Preisexplosion liegt dann vor, wenn der Preis vorher lange Zeit entweder wenig schwankte oder sich in einem nicht allzu großen Preisband (sagen wir mal +/- 15 bis 20 %) bewegte und nun plötzlich, ohne vorherige Anzeichen, extrem anzieht.
    Wir könnten also durchaus jederzeit bei Silber eine Preisexplosion erleben, und zwar auch innerhalb eines ansonsten ansteigenden oder fallenden Preisbandes. Man kann also auf moderat anziehende Preise aufgrund steigender Nachfrage spekulieren und dabei auch noch an eine Preisexplosion glauben, wenn man alle bekannten Fakten berücksichtigt.


    Grüße


    extrel

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]


    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1095269452.php


    The Federal Reserve - Its Origins, History & Current Strategy


    By: Wayne N. Krautkramer


    Few perceive the truth about the Federal Reserve. Rare are those who know its origins. It is right in front of us, but our relative ignorance of economics and history is their protection. A quick history lesson is in order.


    On October 14, 1066, AD., King William I (the Conqueror) founded the English monarchy. The Corporation was created by William in 1067 AD. to facilitate trade, and assure the continuation of the wealth of the monarchy. The City of London's legal name is The Corporation of the City of London. The City of London has unique political and economic privileges that do not apply to Greater London, or anywhere else in the British realm. The "City" even has its own police force that is sovereign.


    The Bank of England was granted a royal charter on July 27, 1694, by William III to regularize the monarchy's finances. This scheme was invented by a Scot promoter named William Paterson. The scheme was to create a bank with a "fund for perpetual interest". Fractional reserve banking was created, along with the radical monetary concept of a "monopoly" bank which would create money for loans that would never be repaid. A perpetual money machine for the monarchy was born. The permanent National Debt was born. The Bank of England would finance the emerging empire from its headquarters in the City of London. Never again would the lack of money, or liquidity, hamper the British empire under normal economic conditions. Conveniently, the monarchy also controls the City of London. This assures that the heart of the economic machine will always be protected.


    The United States fought a hard and expensive war against England in 1776 to achieve sovereignty. That included the right to have her own currency, control her own tax policies, and the avoidance of involvement in the affairs of other nations.


    HistoryCentral.com > > War of 1812> United States Declares War on Great Britain

    The United States declared War on Great Britain on June 12, 1812. The war was declared as a result of long simmering disputes with Great Britian. The central dispute surrounded the impressment of American soldiers by the British. The British had previously attacked the USS Chesapeake and nearly caused a war two year earlier. In addition, disputes continued with Great Britain over the Northwest Territories and the border with Canada. Finally, the attempts of Great Britain to impose a blockade on France during the Napoleonic Wars was a constant source of conflict with the United States.


    The US did everything in their power to remove British influence and control from this continent. Again and again we defeated all attempts to allow our money to be controlled by a National (Central) bank. When Central banks were established, we abolished them. Times changed, and Thomas Woodrow Wilson was elected. The intellectual who wanted the League of Nations (the progenitor of the United Nations) was elected. Under his leadership, we received the Federal Reserve, and the Sixteenth Amendment (Income Tax) shackling us into slavery to the British Crown forever. In 1917, Wilson made the world safe for democracy by plunging the US into World War I


    On December 23, 1913, the Federal Reserve Act, also known as the Glass-Owen Bill, was passed. The Republican controlled Senate rammed the bill through when many members of the US Congress were home for the holiday. The President, Dr. Thomas Woodrow Wilson, signed it into law one hour after being passed by the Congress! Somebody very powerful really wanted this law passed. The Federal Reserve System is an independent central bank. Although the President of the United States appoints the chairman of the Fed, and this appointment is approved by the United States Senate, the decisions of the Fed do not have to be ratified by the President, or anyone else in the executive branch of the United States government. Buried in the legislation was the granting of total power over the monetary policies of all US banks. A very curious statement is found in the original 1913 law. SEC. 30. The right to amend, alter, or repeal this Act is hereby expressly reserved. Reserved expressly to whom, or what? No definition is provided. This is the entire Section 30 statement! "Curiouser and curiouser, cried Alice".


    Stock not held by member banks shall not be entitled to voting power. This clause guarantees that no outsider can justify buying shares in the Federal Reserve. "But wait! There's more!"


    Sec. 341 Second. To have succession for a period of twenty years from its organization unless it is sooner dissolved by an Act of Congress, or unless its franchise becomes forfeited by some violation of law. The Federal Reserve was only given a corporate life of 20 years! Their time was up in 1933 Who was President at that time? Franklin. D. Roosevelt, of course. Somehow, the Federal Reserve's termination did not occur. Reader, do I have your attention yet?


    My research failed to find any reauthorization of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, other than the tacit approval given by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.


    No Senator or Representative in Congress shall be a member of the Federal Reserve Board or an officer or a director of a Federal reserve bank. No member of Congress is have access to the inner sanctum! Hello, what is this? Are they afraid that an American might come upon something untoward? 12 USC 3019 Federal reserve banks, including the capital stock and surplus therein, and the Income derived therefrom shall be exempt from Federal, State, and local taxation, except taxes upon real estate. People, I think we are a roll now.


    SEC. 25.Any national banking association possessing a capital and surplus of 1,000,000 dollars or more may file application with the Federal ReserveBoard, upon such conditions and under such regulations as may be prescribed by the said board, for the purpose of securing authority to establish branches in foreign countries or dependencies of theUnited States for the furtherance of the foreign commerce of the United States, and to act, if required to do so, as fiscal agents of the United States. Such application shall specify, in addition tothe name and capital of the banking association filing it, the place or places where the bankingoperations proposed are to be carried on, and the amount of capital set aside for the conduct of its foreign business. The Federal Reserve Board shall have power to approve or to reject such application if, in its judgment, the amount of capital proposed to be set aside for the conduct of foreign business is inadequate, or if for other reasons the granting of such application is deemed inexpedient. Wow, the US government has no formal control over the foreign operations of the Federal reserve banks! The Federal reserve banks are exempt from all taxation. These people are very independent. Independent of audits, independent of congressional supervision, and independent of the American voter.


    The Federal Reserve claims that nobody owns it – that it is an "independent entity within the government." The Federal Reserve is subject to laws such as the Freedom of Information Act and the Privacy Act which cover Federal agencies but not private corporations; yet Congress gave the Federal Reserve the autonomy to carry out its responsibilities insulated from political pressure. Each of the Fed's three parts – the Board of Governors, the regional Reserve banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee – operates independently of the federal government to carry out the Fed's core responsibilities. Once a member of the Board of Governors is appointed, he or she can be as independent as a U.S. Supreme Court judge, though the term is shorter. As the nation's central bank, the Federal Reserve derives its authority from the U.S. Congress. It is considered an independent central bank because its decisions do not have to be ratified by the President or anyone else in the executive or legislative branch of government, it does not receive funding appropriated by the Congress, and the terms of the members of the Board of Governors span multiple presidential and congressional terms. (The Fed's financial independence arises because it is hugely profitable due to its ownership of government bonds. (It gives the government billions of dollars each year.) However, the Federal Reserve is subject to oversight by the Congress, which periodically reviews its activities and can alter its responsibilities by statute. Also, the Federal Reserve must work within the framework of the overall objectives of economic and financial policy established by the government.


    The only statements of ownership made by the Federal Reserve Board is an allusion to the twelve Federal district banks. This circle puts us back at the beginning, for no information is provided regarding the ownership of the twelve Federal district banks. However, a 1976 government study commissioned by the Federal Reserve Directors revealed the following:


    OWNERSHIP OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE


    Most Americans, if they know anything at all about the Federal Reserve, believe it is an agency of the United States Government. This article charts the true nature of the "National Bank." Chart 1 Source: ** Federal Reserve Directors: A Study of Corporate and Banking Influence ** - - Published 1976 Chart 1 reveals the linear connection between the Rothschilds and the Bank of England, and the London banking houses which ultimately control the Federal Reserve Banks through their stockholdings of bank stock and their subsidiary firms in New York.


    The two principal Rothschild representatives in New York, J. P. Morgan Co., and Kuhn, Loeb & Co. were the firms which set up the Jekyll Island Conference at which the Federal Reserve Act was drafted, who directed the subsequent successful campaign to have the plan enacted into law by Congress, and who purchased the controlling amounts of stock in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1914.


    These firms had their principal officers appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Advisory Council in 1914. In 1914 a few families (blood or business related) owning controlling stock in existing banks (such as in New York City) caused those banks to purchase controlling shares in the Federal Reserve regional banks. Examination of the charts and text in the House Banking Committee Staff Report of August, 1976 and the current stockholders list of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks show this same family control.


    George Bush presided over a minor change in the Federal Reserve Act. The Sarbanes-OxleyAct was passed in 2002. The American Congress failed again to deal with the Federal Reserve. Bush managed to keep all discussion and changes confined to some reporting requirements for financial institutions. Bush knows very well who he serves, and he really serves his master well. It's amazing how few grasped the significance of Alan Greenspan being knighted by the Queen of England! Greenspan was knighted on September 26, 2002. An obvious reward for preventing any real discussion, or change, of the Federal Reserve during the Sarbanes-Oxley Act debates. Had an American President been knighted, serious questions would have arisen. It was so each easier to reward her manager, Alan! Do you still believe that Alan Greenspan has the power of Dearth Vader? He is only a little man, faithfully serving his queen.


    The British Crown, or the British monarchy is the owner of the Federal Reserve. This is their real secret. The strategy of the Federal Reserve is their other secret. Again, it is right of front of us, but no one sees the obvious. The strategy of the Federal Reserve is to accumulate all the wealth through the very slow, but effective, technique of currency debasement. The monarchs of old used to shave or clip the coins as they passed through their treasuries. Now the process is more sanitary (no more clipping and scraping all those dirty coins). John Maynard Keynes clearly stated that at there is no more effective method of destroying a society than through currency debasement.


    The primary reason for its success is the inability of most people to understand that more is not necessarily better. A recent conversation highlighted Kenyes's observation. There is some agitation to raise the minimum wage in my state. I listened to a proponent of a higher minimum wage. I attempted to point out that an increase in a large number of people's income would only result in prices going up, along with the obvious tax increases. "What was I talking about?" was the response. I explained that some percentage of people might wind up dealing with tax bracket creep (increases), and all will have with the obligatory tax increases that follow from any price increase. If nothing else, the sales tax must go up because the prices have gone up. I was immediately informed that I was the most negative person they had ever talked to.


    The Federal Reserve will always debase the currency to take its cut, and guarantee that the government has a tax base available to feed its bureaucratic family. The government is a total slave of the Federal Reserve. For example, analyze the latest real estate boom. There will be a major boost in property taxes based on the new valuations. Many people will be surprised when they receive their new tax bill. This will guarantee more money for the government coffers. They know that people will do almost anything to keep their homes. What's another job or two per family? Besides, the extra job will provide more tax revenue for the government. This will require more day care, or baby-sitting services for many families, which create more income for the government. This will cause more meals to be eaten out, which creates more revenue for the government Meanwhile, prices will continue to go up, which creates more sales tax revenue for the government. Are you getting the point yet? Deflation is end of the government. The local, state, and federal government will all fail!


    This is the strategy of the Federal Reserve. The majority of the people will always believe that more is better. Knowing that, and now having a democracy ensconced in the US, it was time to feed and breed. Prices always go up, and everything is "Wunnerful, Wunnerful" Bring on the Champagne Lady. Alan runs the bubble machine. The illusion of money has destroyed most people since society (goverment) developed socialism. Democracy feeds on the illusion of something for nothing. As each demagogue promises more than his competition, the tax burden becomes oppressive. The monetary illusion serves to conceal the costs through currency debasement. This assures the complete destruction of the society that embraces this perversion. Any attempt to introduce logic into a dialogue will be defeated by claiming you're an elitist devoid of compassion. Envy, hate, and manipulated passions are the hallmark of democracies. While all this destruction is occurring, money diverted by the mechanism of currency debasement is constantly being transferred to the British Crown in the City of London.


    Any questions, gang?


    Free Markets For Free Men


    Wayne N. Krautkramer

    More commentary at http://onlypill.tripod.com/



    The Corporation of the City of London:http://www.fact-index.com/c/ci/city_of_london.html
    The Bank of England:http://www.fact-index.com/b/ba/bank_of_england.html#History
    The Sixteenth Amendment:http://www.lovetolearnplace.com/SpecialDays/IncomeTax/
    Federal Reserve Act of 1913:http://aor.cat4.net/federalreserveact1913/
    Federal Reserve: 2002 Amendment:http://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/federalreserveact.html
    Federal Reserve ownership:http://land.netonecom.net/tlp/ref/federal_reserve.shtml



    -- Posted Wednesday, September 15 2004

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    September 15 - Gold $405.50 down 90 cents – Silver $6.24 up 5 cents


    Gold And Silver Show Independent Strength From Stronger Dollar


    Zitat

    Civilization can only revive when there shall come into being in a number of individuals a new tone of mind independent of the one prevalent among the crowd and in opposition to it. A new public opinion must be created privately and unobtrusively. The existing one is maintained by the press, by propaganda, by organization, and by financial influences which are at its disposal. The unnatural way of spreading ideas must be opposed by the natural one, which goes from man to man and relies solely on the truth of the thoughts and the hearer's receptiveness of new truth...Albert Schweitzer


    GO GATA!!!


    With the dollar a bit on the stronger side this morning, gold came in around $1.50 lower. Then some economic news came out which was certainly not dollar bullish. Yet, from there on in the dollar surged for no apparent reason. We have seen this over and over again the past few months. The dollar gets very weak for a period of time, then miraculously turns right around on a dime and almost always on days when the US stock market is under pressure. Coincidence? I doubt it.


    The DOW closed down 86 to 10,231 (making new lows for the day going into the close), while the DOG fell 19 to 1896.


    The dollar rose .68 to 89.40, while the euro fell 1.02 to 121.47.


    Gold fell nearly $3 early as the euro was being trampled, however, HUGE buy orders below the market cushioned the setback, eventually firming the market up as the day wore on. By the end of the Comex trading period, gold was on its highs of the day. It regained a good portion of its early losses even though the dollar remained resolutely positive.


    Early on JP Morgan Chase was pressuring gold in behalf of the cabal along with specs trading on the euro weakness. As the day wore on, those specs and the locals were forced to cover going into the close. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley were significant buyers between $1.50 and $2 lower on the day.


    The gold open interest only rose 1723 contracts to 249,885, which was much less than I expected and should be construed as mildly constructive.


    Silver was steady right after the opening, spent most of the day higher, and then showed some late strength as it moved up going into the close. Days ago silver appeared to me to be sold out and looks much more that way as of tonight’s close. The silver open interest rose 385 contracts to 82,028.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    IMPORTANT! Advantage India


    Wednesday, September 15, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.26, PM $7.23, with world gold at $404.80 and $404.70. Huge: lavish for legal imports. This reflects the continuing surge of the rupee, which finished at the highest level since July 12.


    Short term, this is probably the most important element in the gold market right now. The world’s biggest buyer of physical is, in effect, being given a special deal. To put this in perspective, were the rupee to return to the April high (a 5.1% move), the Indians would in effect be faced with world gold at $384. Any follower of this work will realize that this would cause a buying stampede.


    The Bears got a break in the early summer because the damage done to confidence in India by the election of the leftist Congress government reversed the appreciation of the rupee, and muted Indian gold demand. That seems now to have gone away, just in time for the strongest buying season. Shippers of bullion are going to be busy.


    This is probably the most important event from outside the conventional North Atlantic price- determining arena since the Japanese bullion-buying binge of early 2002.


    Right now, Japan is not interested. TOCOM volume fell 28% to the equivalent of 15,907 Comex lots, prices were little changed – active contract up 3 yen, world gold 5c below the NY close. Open interest slipped further, down the equivalent of 505 Comex to equal only 86,132 Comex lots. Japanese liquidation/disinterest has definitely been a drag on the gold price recently – open interest is down to levels of the spring price nadir. An optimist would dream about them getting back in. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 55,000 contracts.)


    Today Reuters estimated volume at 22,000 by 10 am, e.g. huge. One seriously doubts that the sellers realize what they are up against.


    JB

    Ok Thom,
    zum Thema "Glaubwürdigkeit der Chinesen", du hattest in einem früheren Posting vermutet, die Chinesen könnten den Silberpreis nach unten treiben, weil sie demnächst auf der Käuferseite stehen werden.
    Aber ich denke, wir sollten unsere Diskussion jetzt zurückstellen, in einzelnen Punkten haben wir uns angenähert, bei einigen wird die Zukunft zeigen, wessen Interpretation näher an der Wirklichkeit war, aber insgesamt beginnen wir unsere eigenen Argumente zu wiederholen-wir können ja weiterdiskutieren, wenn neue Fakten auf dem Tisch liegen.


    Zu dem neuen Thema Öl oder Gold möchte ich aber noch anmerken,
    dass du zweifelsohne Recht hast, auch die Goldvorräte sind nicht unendlich. Trotzdem ist die aktuelle Situation beim Öl im Hinblick auf die Vorräte, die Recyclingmöglichkeiten und die volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung einiges brisanter als beim Gold.
    Zum Emittenten-Risiko: das ist vorhanden, nichtsdestotrotz konnte man bei fundamental vorhersehbaren Entwicklungen (Dollarverfall, Zusammenbruch des Neuen Marktes usw.) mit den entsprechenden Derivaten eine Menge Geld verdienen (und es anschließend teilweise auch in Edelmetallen anlegen)
    Ich wünsche dir viel Erfolg, ich werde mich zunächst beim Posten wieder etwas zurückhalten, aber ich steige ja nicht völlig aus,
    Skeptiker

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH


    GATA’s evidence of gold price manipulation is overwhelming and conclusive. My assessment that US financial markets are in lockdown/prop up mode is only a hunch. Why the hunch:


    *Every time the dollar is about to break down, it rallies mysteriously for no apparent reason.


    *Every time the US stock market is about to be really trashed, it rallies for no apparent reason.


    *US interest rate vehicles keep flipping and flopping.


    *Gold has not been allowed to take out the $410 area all summer.


    My analysis tells me The Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) has instructions to keep the markets quiet and copacetic until the election is over. Of course, they would like the DOW to soar, but that is easier said (wished for) than done.


    The US economic news of the day, which was anything but robust:


    08:30 September Empire Manufacturing reported 28.3 vs. consensus 20
    Prior reading revised to 13.22 from 12.57.
    * * * * *
    08:30 July Business Inventories reported 0.9% vs. consensus 0.8%
    Prior reading revised to 1.1% from 0.9%.
    * * * * *


    09:15 Aug. Industrial Production reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.5%; Cap. Utilization 77.3% vs. consensus 77.4%
    Prior Indus. Production revised to 0.6% from 0.4%; prior Capacity Utilization revised to 77.3% from 77.1%.
    * * * * *


    10:31 API reports crude oil inventories (2.3M) barrels
    Distillate inventories (136K) barrels, while gasoline inventories rose 685K barrels. Oct. WTI crude at $44.90.
    * * * * *



    10:30 DOE reports crude oil inventories (7.1M) barrels vs. expectations (1.5M) barrels Gasoline inventories reported (1.6M) barrels vs. consensus (1.0M) barrels. Distillate inventories reported +1.7M barrels vs. consensus +1.0M barrels.
    * * * * *


    The oil inventory numbers were a big surprise. Between Ivan the Terrible and the sizeable inventory drops, oil bears were sent scurrying early but came back with a vengeance later on. Sort of weird, I must say, considering what the hurricane might stir up. Crude closed at $43.58 after trading as high as $45.15 per barrel.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $7 Billion in repos today September 15th 2004, an action that kept the repo pool extremely high and rising at $60.814 billion. The pool's red line moving average is turning even higher and slowly dragging the DOW up with it. Note the DOW data points ABOVE its green ma line. If there are more than 30 of them the ma will turn farther up with each new point above the line and than condition is what we are beginning to see, albeit slowly.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/repos0915.gif]


    Tomorrow will bring a huge $26.5 Billion expiration in repos and IF the Fed adds a load more to off set then expiration the primary dealers will have an intra-day bonus of funds that could top $80 Billion. Look for some fireworks either in the DOW or some other strategic commodity.


    The brilliant Dennis Gartmen's "review" of John Embry and Andrew Hepburn's summary report failed to mention my work. I am crestfallen! My work must be so toxic to the gold cartel that they tell their attack dog du jour to ignore I altogether. And I went to the trouble of ordering a special autograph pen made just for Dennis's copy. Oh well, maybe next time.


    DIVG


    Numerical guidance suggests that the preferred path is slightly up during this transition phase. There is good agreement between my pma models and a very low probability of any meaningful down turn in the near future. The fed has spent a load of bullion whipsawing the market since May17th with an absolute low being set on August 17th. We are now on the rebound but at a mini plateau, appearing perhaps, to be a stair step.


    Certain moving averages of the DIVG show the absence of randomness to an undeniable magnitude. It is this fact alone that demolishes gold cartel denials of intervention.. We know it is important because the Fed altered their historical MCDI data in a feeble attempt to hide the relationships in the DIVG. Oh yes...one more thing. The 93 years (1878-1971) of formal gold standard price fixing...perhaps Mr. Gartman forgot? And what about the $3.9 Billion in annual US cotton subsidies? Gartman's street genius would posit that $3.9 Billion isn't market intervention either. And then the lumber tariff...and so on. None of it is market intervention, according to the "logic" of Dennis Gartman.


    The WA looms and the Fed continues to be under interest rate pressure so the powder is loaded for some action going into the election.


    Banca D'Italia's last official gold reserve report was their 2003 Annual Report and on page 309 we see their gold tonnage was listed as 2,452 tonnes. Of that amount, we have no reliable method to determine how much has already been lent away as a "gold receivable" and is therefore, effectively unrecoverable. Time will tell if they truly opt out of the gold cartel's terminal selling frenzy.


    As mentioned yesterday the mainstream press has been silent on the obvious hurricane economic damage. Today the UK's Independent finally chimed in:


    Hurricane onslaught may blow hole in US economy


    By David Usborne in New York
    15 September 2004
    http://news.independent.co.uk/…tory=561787&host=3&dir=70


    As hurricane Ivan roared northwards yesterday through the Gulf of Mexico towards landfall in the US as early as this evening, Wall Street analysts warned that the damage could extend into the wider economy.


    It has been 40 years since three serious hurricanes struck the US in a season and the economic impact on this occasion could be marked. Most experts predict a storm-related drop-off in GDP figures in the third and fourth quarters.


    After increasing by $1.40 a barrel on Monday, oil prices were again rising yesterday, in part because of interrupted production. About a quarter of US oil and natural gas production is in the Gulf of Mexico. Most rigs and platforms have been evacuated.


    David Kotok, the chief investment adviser at Cumberland Advisors, said that if Florida was hit by a third storm it would be felt across the US. Florida is the fourth-biggest state in terms of population and economic production. "In 2004, we are going to pay for the shock," he said. Agriculture, tourism and property development were predicted to be worst hit.


    Hurricanes Charley and Frances caused up to $14bn (£8m) in insured property damage in Florida. Uninsured costs could be more than $20bn.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    The pressure is building, the markets are in lockdown mode (as Bill has accurately reported) and perceptive investors will take a bullion opportunity when it is presented.


    Mike


    Chuck checks in:


    I like very much what I see here both in the stock market and in gold. Most of the opinions from even the bears are not looking for a downside in the market with many anticipating a healthy rally as the election approaches. But the market still has a very heavy feel to it and given the ongoing deterioration in almost all of the economic measures, it is going to require an even greater feat of magic to keep this market afloat. To me that means an ever increasing money pump or many more fingers in the dike. But given the times in which we are living all things are possible. But if that occurs it can only spell good things for gold.


    We are pressing against all sorts of resistance and channel levels here, and yet the gold shares are retaining their pattern of gapping down rather than anticipating the breakout. This tells me that the market participants are yet nervous and unconvinced about an upward move. Today’s relative strength in gold, in spite of a strong dollar, is also very encouraging. I believe that the big surprise will be that gold and the shares will go up against the backdrop of a firm dollar, and this will keep the bears alive and many of the bulls puzzled and lukewarm. Given the next week or so bordered by the Jewish Days of Awe, we might have a very quiet market, but the tilt should be positive for gold and down for stocks. As Bill has pointed out the fundamentals are staring us in the face. Many of the exploration have been so beaten down that they will rise strictly from the relief of the relentless selling of the past 9 months or so. When gold starts to breakout, there is going to be a lot of competition to take positions or get back in. There is not going to be a public announcement that it’s okay to get back into the water. Finally, if you can look at the announcement by IMA Exploration today. This property might very well end up being the largest silver find in history. Chuck


    Craig Harris of http://www.harriscapitalmanagement.com puts out superb commentary. He sounded like our camp last evening:


    Citigroup was in the news today. They don't often get nailed for this sort of thing....but it's a great illustration of how they actually "make money". They sold 11 billion euros worth of euro debt in the space of 2 minutes and then proceeded to buy it all back slowly later making a profit. I suspect this is how they operate in the gold market as well. The thing is that futures are a zero sum game. So....if you hit a market hard with a big sell order....it creates havoc and a very sharp quick selloff because you overwhelm the counterparties and cause the stops to run. You can then buy back what you sold slowly without creating the same disruption in the market. In other words, you might be able to hit it for $10 on the downside, and then buy back the whole position slowly at that new lower price.


    If you look at the big picture...it's a bank. It used to even say so in the name. As in the article I linked last week, central banks and their agents (Citigroup would be one of the agents of the US central bank) are acting less and less like banks and more and more like hedge funds (except that they are huge hedge funds that can have their way in just about any market).


    Citigroup regrets Aug euro govt bond sale-memo


    The UK's market watchdog the Financial Services Authority launched an investigation into the transaction last month and other European regulators have been looking into the trade. The inquiry centres around Citigroup's sale of around 11 billion euros worth of euro-denominated government debt in the space of minutes on Aug. 2.

    http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…e=topNews&storyID=6228374


    When history is written, I think the reasons for the inevitable crisis will seem obvious in retrospect. Banks should be for the storage and maintenance of wealth. That's supposedly why they exist. What they have become is speculative entities and cohorts of a private corporation called the Federal Reserve operating with 95% leverage.


    -END-


    Citigroup was a defendant in Reg Howe’s lawsuit against The Gold Cartel in Boston Federal Court.


    The pot and the kettle:


    WASHINGTON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday accused Saudi Arabia of severe violations of religious freedom in a rare official rebuke of a close ally and key oil supplier that potentially could lead to sanctions.


    "Freedom of religion does not exist" in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. State Department said in an annual report on religious freedom around the world that included the kingdom for the first time among a small list of countries "of particular concern."


    –END-


    OK, so Saudi Arabia violates religious freedoms. The US financial press violates our freedom of the press (views such as GATA’s are not allowed serious coverage is an obvious example). We then go around the world and preach democracy and free markets. Meanwhile, in clandestine fashion we rig our markets to benefit our Wall Street banking elitists. Some call that economic fascism. The US has become the most hypocritical nation in the world. Unfortunately, people all over the world have come to understand this. It is why we are hated and held in such low esteem (world-wide polls about the US continue to worsen in this regard). Back at the ranch, most Americans continue to watch one reality TV show after another, following the party line, blissfully rah-rahing on etc., with no idea about what is to hit them over the head in the years to come.


    From Rhody (lease rates can be viewed at:


    http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html


    Hi Bill:


    As you can see from the included data, gold and silver lease rates in the near terms are still rising. Silver's near term rates are rising faster than gold, reflecting the higher costs of capping this metal that is in shorted supply than gold. The overall pattern is of silver being four times as expensive to lease as gold, except in the near terms where silver is two and one half to three times more expensive. But rates in the near terms are rising while those in the long terms are falling. This means that capping is increasing in intensity but hedging by mines is probably declining, both in silver and gold.


    Rhody


    Jesse brings GATA City, capital of LeMetropolis, our hangout of the future to our attention:


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/worldofgold.jpg]


    Canada’s Wendell Leythem has done a wonderful job contacting gold and silver firms in which he is a shareholder. Here is some dialogue from three of them.


    Dear Wheaton River,


    I am a shareholder in your company. I have invested in your company because I believe in the productivity of you company and because of integrity of management. As a shareholder, one of my desires is to make sure that you are being responsible with the money I have entrusted to you.


    I have 2 questions I would like to ask:


    What is your opinion about the Sprott Report, "Not Free, not Fair---The Long Term Manipulation of the Gold Price". Have you read it in full? Do you plan to promote it and even make it part of your website. Samex has done this and I applaud them for this.

    What do you believe about the World Gold Council? The WGC is a joke! Is Wheaton River a part of the World Gold Council? I believe that the WGC would do more for the cause of gold and gold companies by closing their doors rather than continue their ridiculous promotion of gold jewelry. If you are a part of the WGC, I am opposed to any continuation of the wasteful support of this hopelessly incompetent organization by our Company. Disbanding the WGC would be one of the best things that every happened for our company and it can only happen when we choose to cease supporting it.

    I do anticipate that you will reply to this email. May you have a good day.


    Sincerely,


    Wendell Leytham


    Wheaton River responds:


    From: Julia Hasiwar jhasiwar@wheatonriver.com]
    Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2004 1:03 AM
    To: Wendell Leytham
    Subject: RE: questions from a shareholder


    Wheaton does not provide third party market analysis on its website and is not a member of the World Gold Council. Thank you for your interest in Wheaton River Minerals.


    ***


    Wendell hits the nail on the head and sends a message to Ian Telfer he should hear from every single Wheaton shareholder:



    Thanks, Julia, for the reply. I'm glad to hear that Wheaton is not part of the WGC. Regarding the "third party" stuff, I assume you are referring to John Embry's report (I think). John Embry's report does Wheaton and all Precious Metals companies a GREAT service. I find it quite disappointing that few gold companies have the courage even to mention the name of it let alone make it available to their shareholders. You must be concerned that it would do some harm for Wheaton to post this in an objective way. Ian Telfer was talking about a $500 gold price by the end of this year. He mentioned this last November. If he and the Board of Wheaton would like to see this sooner rather than later, it would benefit Wheaton and your shareholders to do a little to help stop the manipulation taking place to suppress the gold price. It's costing you and me and all your shareholders a fortune.


    Your response to me indicates that Wheaton is content to do nothing in this regard. My opinion is by having this attitude, you are supporting the gold price manipulation by default. This is just the way I see it. I hope you become bombarded with emails and calls by your shareholders as to why you are taking this course.


    Sincerely,
    Wendell Leytham


    Southwestern Gold responds to the same email from Wendell:


    From: John Paterson [mailto:jpaterson@swgold.com]
    Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2004 12:40 PM
    To: wendelll@gfa.org
    Subject: (no subject)


    Southwestern is not a member of the world gold council.with respect to john embrys report on gold manipulation this is nothing new. lots of analysts believe the gold market is being manipulated but pretty hard to prove.


    ***


    Wendell aptly notes:


    I wrote back to them basically saying that you don't need to see someone commit the crime if all the evidence says that they did it. I encouraged them to reconsider and put the report on their website.


    Wendell Leytham


    Compare those sort of pale responses, surely from lightweights who most likely failed to even read the report, to this one from ECU Silver:


    From: ECU Silver Mining Inc. info@ecu.ca
    Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2004 2:36 PM
    To: wendelll@gfa.org
    Subject: RE: questions from a shareholder


    Hi Wendell,


    I've just read the report. I think there are a lot of valuable points to be taken and I will probably use some of these points on the web-site.

    We are not part of the WGC. I don't foresee being part of it in the foreseeable future. That's all I'll say about that for now.


    best regards
    Richard J. Hamelin
    ECU Silver Mining Inc.


    Nice effort Wendell, just as so many others of you have made. I would hope every Café member would spend a little time contacting their gold firms and demand they let you know what executive at the company read the Sprott Special Report and if they disagreed with its contents and conclusions to give detailed responses why.


    Speaking of the Sprott Report, a veteran Cafe member who has been in the mining side of the business for many years sent the Sprott Report to various analysts all over the world. Here is only one visible reward for his efforts - from OZEQUITIES NEWSLETTER IN AUSTRALIA:


    GoldPriceManipulation.doc


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/goldpriceman.doc

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH


    The gold shares have been trading like many of the other markets. Each time they are in position to break out, they go the other way. The XAU fell 1.25 to 93.45 and the HUI lost 2.99 to 205.35.


    There are just so many times I can point out the gold fundamentals are "10+++++." Only the increasingly desperate antics of The Gold Cartel have kept gold and silver from really taking off. Our sources told us the physical market would be very firm this week because of the buying they knew was going to hit the market. This is just what we have seen. We are getting to the point where both gold and silver should finally come in sharply higher one morning and then run!


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS


    Appendix


    Bill,


    Its time to vent, a healthy exercise I’m told!


    D Gartman’s sly effort to diffuse interest in Mr Embry’s (et al) fine work is simply disingenuous. In my opinion its the type of stuff that ends up on the bottom of a birdcage by the next day. His attempt to disqualify the reports conclusions by focusing the reader on words like "conspiracy" and "monitoring", while evading the responsibility of objectively evaluating the presented evidence is to embrace mediocrity as one would the return of a prodigal son!


    His supplication that we should accept his written excrement as sufficient to render the report impotent is also pathetic;


    "We've not the time to go on this morning, and although our case is perhaps not made with the same sheer volume that the Sprott report has weighed in with, we trust it is made.


    Conspiracies rarely exist, and when they do, they are far more often than not exposed."


    If Mr Gartman doesn’t have the time to do a professional job, well then, just don’t do it. John Embry et al deserve much better than this! As far as conspiracies rarely existing, he must have really bit his tongue to get that one out. 5000 years of monetary history is replete with conspiracies to dislodge the most basic human freedoms of "honest weights and measures". To quote a wise man; "there is nothing new under the sun".


    What about the tobacco industry’s debacle? Which, after much travail became the focus of billions of dollars of legal settlements etc. Finally one lone scientist came forward, risking his life, to reveal that the industries long standing agenda had been to craft an evermore addicting "nicotine delivery unit" to increase/enhance addictions and expand company profits! All to the detriment of millions of unsuspecting consumers.


    I do agree with Mr Gartman that these "hidden agendas" are eventually exposed. Sometimes it just takes awhile for enough people to risk vacating their comfort zone to apply the pressures necessary to germinate changes. John Embry and GATA have been pushing the wagon (of truth) up the hill (of media negligence/wall street complicity) for years and I believe that they will succeed in exposing one of the longest most comprehensive efforts to "frock-up fiat" as true wealth as the world has ever seen.


    Ok I feel a little better now.


    Before I go, just one more thing relating to the IR responding exploration CEO. Another industry giant, John Hathaway wrote an excellent essay several years ago entitled; "Investment case for Gold". In which he argued strongly that exploring for gold was basically, all things considered, an unprofitable economic exercise if gold continued south of $400 per ounce. The inherent industry risks associated with gold exploration demand a greater reward (price north of $425, if I remember correctly) in order to justify and attract the savvy investor. I would think that this would be a reasonable concern/issue for all exploration entrepreneurs. No one wants to waste their supporter’s capital savings on fruitless endeavours, do they?


    Wow, I’ve preached myself happy!
    Chow,
    Buena Fe


    Sept. 15/04


    Open Letter to Mr. Dennis Gartman;


    Rereading your commentary last night left me a little more than saddened. There was I time when I actually had quite a bit of respect for you. Given your comments about conspiracies, I thought it would be only fitting for you to offer your two cents worth on this - should be right up your alley. Since you to cite what you describe as a lack of "credible" references, please do tell us all if Harvard University is credible enough for you. Harvard Watch, in case you don’t know, is a group of academics who were formed ostensibly to be the conscience of the ultra secretive Harvard Corporation (whose 7 members just happen to include Lawrence Summers, Robert Rubin and up until recently Pug Winokur). If you know all this Dennis, you can skip this part but excuse me, I’m just going to include the details for those who haven’t yet found the time to read up on it.


    You see, the Harvard Corporation administers the not for profit 21 billion dollar Harvard Endowment Fund. The largest such pool of capital this side of the Roman Catholic Church. This fund has been intimately linked to such financial fiascos as Bush/Harken Energy and Enron/California energy debacle. When the Harvard Watch did their own investigations, here are a few snippets of what they found. In addition to giving guidance (such as choosing outside money managers) to Harvard’s 21 billion dollar Endowment fund, Pug Winokur was the Chairman of Enron’s audit committee. At the same time one of the Endowment Fund’s biggest outside money managers happens to be Highfields Capital. This is basically a hedge fund run by John Jacobson – a former member of the seven-man Harvard Corp. He left the Corp. in 1996 with 500 million of Harvard money to start his own financial advisory/absolute return fund. According to Harvard University 1999 tax returns Highfields topped the pay list of advisories at 30 million in management fees for the year. In fact Highfields did so well making money for Harvard, the Harv[/B]ard Magazine was crowing about the job they did and they reportedly handle 2 billion or more of their funds now.


    Now Mr. Gartman, I know you don’t think too much about the existence of conspiracies, but you better get a clothes pin and plug your nose cause this story starts to stink a whole lot more. I’ll bet you will never guess how Highfields made their astonishing returns for Harvard? This long/short fund only had 3 equity shorts (put options). Enron just happened to be the biggest – and the Enron short was 47 times the size of the next biggest short. Now Mr. Gartman, revelation of facts like this by a concerned group of Harvard academic folks - scholarly reporting the actions of their University’s own money managers (who answer to nobody) probably wouldn’t make you bat an eyelash. No guilt was ever found implicating Mr. Winokur or Highfields Mr. Gartman. Highfields 5000 foot homerun simply gets chalked up to "pure brilliance".


    Also Mr. Gartman, in case you were not aware; Enron funded research centers at Harvard. This (allegedly objective) research was instrumental in legitimating energy deregulation and defending energy industry monoliths against assertions of price manipulation. Nothing stinky here eh Dennis?


    It does appear, however Dennis, that Mr. Winokur sufficiently spread an aroma about the doings of Harvard that his presence was no longer required and he resigned his post to make room for none other than Mr. Robert Rubin. Here’s a snippet of the statement the Harvard Watch published regarding the changing of the guard.


    "Winokur's departure from the Corporation, however, represents only a first step in cutting Harvard's ties to Enron. There remain multiple Harvard research initiatives funded by and effectively functioning for Enron and its executives. Notable examples include the Harvard Electric Policy Group, the Belfer Center, and the Winokur Public Policy Fund. Moreover, the Harvard Corporation's remaining members include several Enron insiders. D. Ronald Daniel, for instance, was Jeffrey Skilling's boss at McKinsey during the 1980s, when Skilling consulted with Enron to design the energy giant's unsustainable business model. Because of the work of Daniel and Skilling, McKinsey is now a defendant in the largest suit against Enron. Moreover, it is remarkably telling that just as the university prepares to bid farewell to one of the Enron club, it has already announced the entry of another one. Robert Rubin, the Corporation's latest addition, is a director of Citigroup, Enron's largest creditor. Rubin attempted to obtain a Federal bailout for Enron as it approached collapse-while its top executives cashed in on Enron's falling stock and drained the pension funds of thousands of their employees"


    So I guess, in the end, you are probably right Mr. Gartman. The notion that there "may" be improprieties occurring and the fact that there "are/is" improprieties occurring are two completely different matters. We can all rest assured knowing that there are people like you out there always ready and willing to bring acts of malfeasance and wrong doings to our attention Dennis. I’m certain Harvard Watch’s academic research is sorely lacking just like John Embry’s and Andrew Hepburn’s doesn’t meet your high standard Mr. Gartman. We certainly know that Enron, like the Fed - watched, monitored and studied the markets they operated in Mr. Gartman. If you understood the relevance and importance of scholarly research, you would have already reported all of this to us in good faith. Too bad you didn’t.


    best,
    Rob Kirby

    Hallo Thai,


    ich habe zwei Bitten:


    1. Wo bekomme ich den Sprott Report her, von dem Wendell Leytham in seinen Mails spricht? Wenn man an die Unternehmen Mails schreiben soll bzgl. dieses Reports, sollte man ihn vorher wenigstens gelesen haben.


    2. Du postest immer so ewig lange Berichte, die auch noch in Englisch verfasst sind. Nicht, dass mein Englisch nicht ausreichen würde (ohne jetzt angeben zu wollen, möchte ich behaupten, mein Englisch ist sehr gut), aber ich habe einfach nicht die Zeit, das alles zu lesen.
    Du verwendest ja immer verschiedene Schriftgrößen und -farben. Ich nehme an, die sollen die wichtigen Passagen hervorheben; dann würde ich mir aber wünschen, dass du nur noch die wichtigsten Passagen in rot und fett hervorhebst, und die must reads zusätzlich in einer größeren Schriftgröße. Ich denke, dass so mehr Leute bei den von dir eingestellten Artikel zumindest die Stellen, auf die es ankommt, lesen. Ich habe die Vermutung, dass vieles von dem, was du hier postest, ungelesen bleibt. Falls dem nicht so ist, bitte korrigiert mich, Forumsmitglieder.


    Grüße


    extrel

    @ Skeptiker


    Zitat

    zum Thema "Glaubwürdigkeit der Chinesen", du hattest in einem früheren Posting vermutet, die Chinesen könnten den Silberpreis nach unten treiben, weil sie demnächst auf der Käuferseite stehen werden.


    Den von Dir erwähnten Gedanken äusserte ich, um zu zeigen, dass Aussagen über Verkaufslimiten dem Verkäufer eigentlich nichts bringen, rsp. sogar dessen Position schwächen und deswegen kontraproduktiv sind. Man kann sich dann überlegen, in welchem Falle diese Aussagen für die Chinesen trotzdem Sinn machen - und eine (theoretische) Möglichkeit wäre das erwähnte Szenario.


    Ich habe aber ja auch andere Gedanken geäussert (man könnte sich noch einige mehr machen...) und bis jetzt nicht gesagt, welche ich am plausibelsten halte.
    Deswegen: Ich denke nicht, dass die Chinesen kurzfrisig auf die Käuferseite wechseln, eher dass sie sich allenfalls mit den Verkäufen etwas zurückhalten und ev. weniger als früher verkaufen, da ihr Eigenbedarf im Moment stark am ansteigen ist (wegen) Wirtschaftswachstum und Industrialisierung). Aber auch das kann schon positiv auf den Silberpreis wirken.
    Und langfristig könnte ich mir ein Stopp der Verkäufe oder gar ein Wechseln ins Käuferlager schon vorstellen, wenn der chinesische Silberbedarf weiterhin in gleich hohem Tempo anwächst! Denn jedes Lager ist einmal erschöpft...


    Aber einverstanden - lass uns ev. später weiterdiskutieren - die Zukunft (und die zukünftigen Silberpreise) wird wohl die eine oder andere Position bestätigen...


    Zitat

    Zum Emittenten-Risiko: das ist vorhanden, nichtsdestotrotz konnte man bei fundamental vorhersehbaren Entwicklungen (Dollarverfall, Zusammenbruch des Neuen Marktes usw.) mit den entsprechenden Derivaten eine Menge Geld verdienen (und es anschließend teilweise auch in Edelmetallen anlegen)


    Klar, ich habe persönlich auch nichts gegen den Einsatz von Zertifikaten und Derivaten auszusetzen (ich setze diese sogar manchmal auch ein). Man muss sich einfach des Risikos bewusst sein und sich z.B. mit einem Goldzertifikat keine Illusionen der Sicherheit machen (z.B. indem man denkt, die Bank würde dann die entsprechende Menge an Gold physisch bevorraten...).
    Aber das vorausgesetzt können einem Zertifikate und Derivate sehr nützlich sein.


    Grüsse,
    Thom

    extrel,


    wenn Du seine Postings wirklich gelesen hättest,wärest Du vielfach darüber gestolpert,wäre auch nicht schlecht,das derartige Berichte archiviert würden,versuchs mal da bitte


    http://www.sprott.com/


    wenn Du über sehr gute Englisch Kenntnisse verfügst,was für ein Problem,hast Du mit seinen GATA Berichten,ist doch gut so,dass die hier im orginal und ünverfälscht erscheinen.Leid tun mir die,die der Sprache nicht mächtig,und auch nicht entsprechende Übersetzungsprogramme handhaben können.Vielleicht solltest Du Dir ein wenig mehr Zeit nehmen.


    Grüsse


    Kalle

    Thai,


    gestern konnte ich im EW - Forum verfolgen,wie sich ein Nick,namens spieler mit der Boardmoderatorin ( Küssner? ) auseinandersetzte,auch dort wurde ,die EW - Theorie teilweise in Frage gestellt.Einige scheinen doch mächtig nervös zu werden.


    Mir persönlich wäre es auch lieber,unser interlektueller Boardadel,würde Deine Berichte generell mal komentieren,und nicht ständig versuchen zu provozieren,und damit Unsicherheit unter die hier anwesenden Leser zu streuen,auch dahinter könnte man System vermuten.


    Gerade,in einem Deiner letzten Postings,geht es um die Zugehörigkeit der Fed,zur englischen Krone,und ich frage mich,warum wird das hier nicht diskutiert,aus angst vor altem Kolonial denken?Aus Angst,als Antisemit abgestempelt zu werden?
    Wer war Laurenz von Arabien,warum gibt es keine Königshäuser mehr in Russland,Frankreich,Österreich und Deutschland mehr,warum?


    Fragen über Fragen



    Kalle

    Zitat

    Du postest immer so ewig lange Berichte, die auch noch in Englisch verfasst sind.


    Die Berichte von Le Metropole Cafe sind nunmal lang und auf Englisch. Ich bin froh, daß Thaiguru die Berichte uns ungekürzt zur Verfügung stellt. Mir wäre es auch lieber, die Sachen auf Deutsch zu lesen - diese Möglichkeit ist aber nicht vorhanden. Die Übersetzungsprogramme, soweit ich sie kenne, produzieren nur unlesbaren Mist.


    MIt den unterschiedlichen Schriftformen, so wie Thaiguru sie verwendet, bin ich sehr zufrieden. Mir hilft es beim Lesen.

    Thom


    .......Aber das vorausgesetzt können einem Zertifikate und Derivate sehr nützlich sein.


    Das mag wohl auf Dich, und einige wenige andere Kenner der Materie, mit Glück, oder mit speziellem Richer zutreffend sein, denn allermeisten Zokkis jedoch ziehts jedoch in der Regel den Riemen rein.



    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

    Hallo Thai


    es kommt natürlich auch auf die Art der Derivate an (z.B. einfach Zertifikate, welche den Marktpreis wiedergeben, oder gehebelte Produkte).
    Aber wie ich erwähnte, man muss sich des Risikos bewusst sein, zumal gerade mit Letzteren auch heftige Verluste gemacht werden können.


    Gruss,
    Thom

    Gerade z.B. für Öl können Zertifikate, welche den Marktpreis wiedergeben, sicher dem einen oder anderen nützlich sein.
    Was Gold betrifft, so sind wir uns sicher einig, dass die physische Ware ungehebelten Zertifikaten vorzuziehen ist, zumindest wenn man eine längere Haltedauer beabsichtigt.

    Wiso nicht gleich das physische Palladium zum Kauf empfehlen, ohne Stop Loss Risiko, und ohne Laufzeitbeschränkung, und vor allem mit bedeutend weniger Verlust Risiko


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://80.239.136.196/user/wkn/logopur.png]


    http://80.239.136.196/news/columns/view.m?news_id=960885


    Palladium - das vergessene Edelmetall?

    10:16 16.09.04


    Palladium – das vergessene Edelmetall?


    Palladium ist ein Edelmetall, das sehr oft in einem Atemzug mit dem
    bekannteren Platin genannt wird. Aktuell führt es bezogen auf die
    Kursperformance der letzten Monate eher ein Schattendasein. Doch dies könnte sich schon sehr bald wieder ändern. Besonders interessant in diesem Zusammenhang sind aktuelle Berichte über die vermuteten Palladium-Bestände des russischen Edelmetallgiganten Norilsk Nickel (ISIN US46626D1081/ WKN 676683) , der auch als einer der größten Produzenten weltweit aufgeführt wird.


    Nach Kalkulationen des renommierten russischen Researchunternehmens RENAISSANCE CAPITAL dürfte Norilsk Nickel aktuell knapp 3 Millionen Feinunzen Palladium als jährliche eigene Produktion hervorbringen. Aktuelle inoffizielle Schätzungen gehen außerdem von Gesamtreserven des Unternehmens von 163 Millionen Feinunzen Palladium aus. Dagegen liegen weiterhin die noch
    vorhandenen Lagerbestände im Dunkeln. Gerüchten zufolge könnten noch bis zu 270 Millionen Feinunzen Palladium zum Jahresende 2003 im Eigentum des russischen Metallgiganten gewesen sein. Ein Unternehmenssprecher behauptet hingegen, dass die Gesellschaft keine Lagerbestände mehr besitzen würde.


    Sollte diese Aussage sich bestätigen, dürften Spekulanten erneut das lange vernachlässigte Edelmetall neu entdecken. Aufgrund der Marktenge wäre eine Kursexplosion wie vor ca. 5 Jahren denkbar. Damals erreichte Palladium einen Höchststand von weit über 1.000 US$ je Feinunze.


    Auch aus technischer Sicht befindet sich Palladium vor einem möglichen
    Ausbruch. Nachdem wir in den letzten Wochen mehrmals Intraday die 200 US$ Marke nach unten getestet haben, sollte schon sehr bald ein Sprung über die wichtige Marke bei 220 US$ unternommen werden. Mehrere technische Indikatoren befinden sich zusätzlich im überverkauften Bereich. Wir erwarten daher eine deutliche Kursbewegung innerhalb der nächsten zwei Wochen.


    Aufgrund der aufgeführten fundamentalen und technischen Gründe bietet sich ein Engagement im Palladium an.


    Als Aktie dürfte North American Palladium (ISIN CA6569121024/ WKN 858 071), der größte unabhängige nordamerikanische Palladiumproduzent in den Blickpunkt der Investoren geraten. Insgesamt steht hier aber eine sehr kleine Produktion hohen finanziellen Risiken gegenüber. Somit dürfte die Aktie, die durchaus eine gewisse Übernahmephantasie aufweist, nur für Anleger mit guten Nerven geeignet sein. Als Alternative dazu kann auch die Aktie von Norilsk Nickel als solide Depotbeimischung ausgewählt werden. Zu beachten ist hierbei, dass der Anleger in ein Konglomerat mit diversen Investments und Produktionsbereichen im Gold-, Palladium- und Nickelbereich
    investiert.


    Völlig andere Möglichkeiten eröffnen die Zertifikate und Call-
    Optionsscheine von ABN Amro die mit unterschiedlichen Basispreisen und Laufzeiten ausgestattet sind. Ein Beispiel hierzu wäre die deutsche WKN 198200. Es handelt sich hierbei um ein MINI LONG Zertifikat. Der Basispreis von 174 und die Stop-Loss Marke von 192 lassen klar auf ein
    Spekulationspapier mit sehr hohem Risiko aber auch einem fast fünffachen Hebel auf die Preisentwicklung des eher matten Edelmetalls schließen.


    Genauere Informationen finden Sie im Internet unter http://www.abn-zertifikate.de.


    Redaktion GOLDINVEST.de daily
    ......................................


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