Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

November 1 – Gold $426.90 down $1.30 – Silver $7.30 up 1 cent

Cartel Fails To Knock Gold Down Much

History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again...Maya Angelou

GO GATA!!!!

Not much to bring to your attention today. Following its strong weekly and monthly close on Friday, gold came out of the box swinging, even though the dollar was higher. It took off for $430, trading at $430.20, and then The Gold Cartel said, "No Way Jose." That was all she wrote and all need be said. The good news is The Gold Cartel’s assault didn’t get them very far.

The gold open interest rose to another record and now stands at 322,614, up 2116 contracts.

Silver was a Steady Eddie. The bears have to be looking at themselves this afternoon.

The silver open interest gained 243 contracts to 117,328.

Chuck noted the following over the weekend:

I just picked up the Investors Daily for Monday and noticed that there remains a lot of put buying on the gold options. Very bullish. Throw that into the pot. Chuck.

Our London gold source remains very bullish and is looking for $450 to $460 gold by year end.

The best news of the day is how firm the gold physical market is - brought to your attention by John B:

The John Brimelow Report

India buying, also Turkey: specs less extended than thought.

Monday, November 01, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums $7.84, PM $7.88, with world gold at $429.05 and $427.95. Ample for legal imports. This is basis Bombay: the other Indian reporting points are similar.

India is showing no signs of faltering in gold purchases despite the world price. Helped by the rupee’s firmness, this ultimately is a wealth effect: the world’s largest gold consumer is booming. For example, Maruti, the biggest Indian car manufacturer, reported a 27.6% increase in sales in October versus 2003. This constitutes a major obstacle for the Bears.

Turkish gold imports for October fell 33% to 14.85 tonnes. Although according to the Istanbul Gold Exchange the weighted average Turkish Lira price was 2.8% higher, the real problem was that gold moved in a limited range last month compared to September: there were no Bargain Basement sales days: gold’s low for the month was $14 above the September low.

Nevertheless, imports so far this year are within a tonne of the total for the entire year 2003, itself a stand-out record. Imports in late 2003 were slow; an increase of 10-15% this year seems quite likely (unless world gold rises).

Despite meeting this morning a world gold price allegedly boosted by month-end activity in NY on Friday, Asia was quite tolerant. Gold spent much of the morning trying to scale $430. TOCOM, indeed, seems to have been a modest buyer. Although volume fell 33% to equal only 16,474 Comex contracts, open interest edged up the equivalent of 519 Comex lots, and the Mitsubishi data implies the "general public" long rose by 3.1 tonnes, or 997 Comex lots. The active contract went out up 15 yen and world gold was $1.25 above the NY close at the end. (On Friday, NY traded 47,113 contracts; open interest rose 2,116 lots to a new record level of 323,654 contracts.)

UBS found the CFTC spec long increase modest:

"The COTR report for gold…showed an increase in the net long position to 20.83Moz, up nearly a million ounces…somewhat less than we were expecting because some brave traders have entered into new speculative short positions…The net long position increased by 0.91Moz to 20.83Moz, still shy of the all-time high of 22.65Moz from 6 April."

Another, particularly shrewd observer notes that the combined NY/Tokyo net long is only 570 tonnes compared to 715 at the April peak.

With the main physical buyer still active (unlike April) and the speculative futures crowd not in fact fully committed, the Bears are in the tightest corner they have experienced for many years.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

A picture perfect day for the PPT. The US stock market sails on going into the election. Oil was trashed to $50.13 (down $1.64), the dollar rose .36 to 85.34 and gold was taken down.

The DOW gained another 26 to 10,054, while the DOG rose 5 to 1980.

The euro lost .38 to 127.49.

The US economic news was nothing to write home about:

Prior Income report revised to 0.3% from 0.4%; prior Spending revised to (0.1%) from 0.0%.
* * * * *

10:00 Oct. ISM Prices Paid reported 78.5 vs. consensus 79
Prior reading was 76.
* * * * *

10:00 October ISM Manufacturing reported 56.8 vs. consensus 58.5
Prior reading was 58.5.
* * * * *

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of U.S. manufacturing fell last month to the lowest in more than a year, incomes lagged spending in September and home construction declined in the final economic reports before tomorrow's presidential election.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index dropped for a third month, to 56.8 from 58.5 in September. Americans spent more than they earned in September, with personal income rising 0.2 percent, a third of the gain in spending, the Commerce Department said. Spending on construction projects was unchanged, restrained by a storm-related drop in homebuilding.

10:00 Sept. Construction Spending reported 0.0% vs. consensus 0.4%
Prior reading revised to 0.9% from 0.8%.
* * * * *

Gold buyers out there:

01.11 / 16:04 | 68 National Bank: gold exchange reserves keep on growing

Astana. November 1. KAZINFORM. Comparing to the state in late October the volume of gold exchange reserves of the country has increased by 44 percent up to USD 7.2 billion. This became possible due to substantial exceed of currency supply over demand. Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Anvar Saidenov informed of this today addressing the joint session of Parliament houses. This volume of gold exchange reserves reimburses about 5 months of goods and services import. According to the predictions of macroeconomic indexes for 2005 gold exchange reserves are expected to grow by 11-12 percent.
During 9 months of the current year the monetary base in Kazakhstan has increased by 27 percent (up to 400 billion KZT); monetary supply – by 25 percent (up to 1.312 billion KZT); cash volume – by 31 percent (up to 312 billion KZT). In general, by the end of the year monetary growth in the republic will amount to 25.8 percent. Analogous indexes of the previous year were 21 percent.

In 2005 the forecast growth of monetary supply by 23-24 will conform to the tempos of economic development of the country, said the banker. –END-

An update on leasing:

Good morning Bill:
"They" started leasing gold and silver heavily last Friday, gold more than silver. It is not the absolute values that are telling so much as the ratios between gold and silver. Usually, silver rates are three to five time that of gold from near terms to long terms. On Friday, gold lease rates rose to less than half of silver's, even though silver rates climbed too and have been climbing slowly for weeks. I don't know what happened to rates this morning, but I can guess they continued to rise. They will trash both metals before the American election, and do it with both leased metal and paper.

I expect the US dollar will show an miraculous recovery today and the DOW will explode. The only thing that might topple the above scenario is the simple fact that the smart money knows what is coming and might turn this into bear trap for the CABAL. It is after all the, leased gold that is finding its way east, so rising lease rates express the pain of the drain on Western central banks reserves.
Regards, Rhody.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/W

On the PPT:

Dear Bill,
Eric Hommelberg's letter makes reference to me with regard to the Plunge Protection Team. I wrote about the Plunge Protection Team in BEURSBEDROG (The Stock Market Sting), Arbeiderspers, Amsterdam, 2003. At the time I did not know where the Plunge Protection Team got the money to manipulate the markets. Now I think I do--the pension funds of Pentagon and other federal contractors. This is explained in a paper I gave at a conference in Barcelona this past June. The paper can be found on my website at Brooklyn College, where I am the Chairman of the Economics Department:

http://depthome.brooklyn.cuny.…elonaStockmarketPaper.htm

All the best, Robert Bell

Nice GATA exposure:

Bill,
I posted the Mozhaiskov transcript to Mises.org BLOG: http://www.mises.org/blog/archives/002648.asp#more.
Robert Blumen

Mises.org, believe it or not, is the #1-most-trafficed economics web site in their world, even ahead of WSJ, the economist, fed.gov, etc. and it is the #1 most trafficked policy site.
Robert

China Lays Into 'Bush Doctrine' Ahead of U.S. Poll

BEIJING (Reuters) - On the eve of the U.S. election, China laid into what it called the "Bush doctrine," said the Iraq war has destroyed the global anti-terror coalition and blamed arrogance for the problems dogging the United States worldwide.

The searing article was as close to a position on the U.S. presidential election as China has come, but it made no mention of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the Democratic Party's challenger to President Bush in Tuesday's presidential contest.

The United States was dreaming if it thought the 21st century was the American century, wrote Qian Qichen, one of the main architects of China's foreign policy, in a commentary in the English-language China Daily newspaper.

"The current U.S. predicament in Iraq serves as another example that when a country's superiority psychology inflates beyond its real capability, a lot of trouble can be caused," Qian wrote.

"But the troubles and disasters the United States has met do not stem from the threats by others, but from its own cocksureness and arrogance."

Qian is a former foreign minister credited with breaking China out of diplomatic isolation after the crackdown on the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

The invasion of Iraq "has made the United States even more unpopular in the international community than its war in Vietnam," he said.

"The Iraq war has also destroyed the hard-won global anti-terror coalition," Qian added, saying it had caused a rise in terrorist activity around the globe and widened a rift between the United States and Europe.

"END OF EMPIRE"

The U.S. strategy of pre-emptive strikes would bring insecurity and ultimately the demise of the "American empire," Qian said.

Analysts have said China has a slight preference for the incumbent in the U.S. election, realising that U.S. policy toward China has changed little from administration to administration.

But China, growing in economic and political influence on the world stage, has expressed its aversion to Bush's unilateralist tendencies and sided with France and Germany in opposition to the Iraq war.

"It is now time to give up the illusion that Europeans and Americans are living in the same world, as some Europeans would like to believe," Qian said.

The United States had not changed its Cold War mentality, Qian said.

"The 21st century is not the 'American century'. That does not mean that the United States does not want the dream. Rather it is incapable of realizing the goal," he said.

After the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, the "Bush doctrine" created "axes of evil" and pre-emptive strategies.

"It linked counter-terrorism and the prevention of proliferation of so-called rogue states and failed states ... It all testifies that Washington's anti-terror campaign has already gone beyond the scope of self-defense."

-END-

Nick Laird was kind enough to send us these charts from Australia:
Bill
Here's a few charts for you that I believe are important at the moment.

The 8 year cycle has now been broken by Friday's close - this 3 up & 5 down cycle has been resident for quite some time.

Samex Mining ($.70, down 8 cents), my second largest holding, was clobbered for the second day in a row. Eric Hommelberg’s perspective:

Hi Bill,
The SAMEX sell off today is pathetic. The stock sank like a stone from 92 cents to 60 cents in just 5 trading days. Volume is hugh, so someone is desperately trying to get rid of the stock as quick as they can thereby taking losses exceeding 30%. Clever deal !

Why sell at this level ? Because most so called gold-advisors are calling in a top on Gold ? Gold won’t slash the $430 barrier ? Taking profits now ? The problem is that small juniors simply can’t absorb a large quantity of sell-orders. Therefore we are witnessing a crazy situation here whereby the entire junior sector is heading towards their lows of this year while the price of Gold is at a 16 year high ! Well, it seems to me that fear is doing the killing over here. Selling just attracts more selling and as said before the smaller juniors simply can’t absorb such a large quantity of sell-orders. It happened several times in the past and again I want to stress that these sell-offs have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company but just fear only. Therefore a panic sell-off such as this one provides an excellent buying opportunity. Just see the graph below and see what happened after the latest panic sell-off in June this year.

As you can see, during the June panic sell-off the shares dropped all the way down to 46 cents and then blasted to 89 cents in just 5 trading sessions. So from a technical point of view it makes sense to buy right now. But there are other reasons as well. The main reason to invest in Junior mining companies is to profit from major discoveries. How and why Junior mining companies can benefit tremendously from discoveries is explained in detail in my piece "Declining Gold reserves benefit Juniors" which can be found at :

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_04/hommelberg091904.html

This piece shows that companies making discoveries are doing very well, no matter what the gold price does. Companies jumping +50% on good results are no exception. So if you are a SAMEX shareholder and you know they started a phase I drill program on their Los Zoros property in July this year and you know they can come out anytime now with the first drill results, why for good sake would you sell right now ? I can’t help but to think that most investors are simply not aware of this or don’t realize the true nature of the Los Zoros fields. Michael Bolser send out the following to his subscribers on Oct 18 : (published with permission)

Michael Bolser – Interventional Analysis, Newsletter Oct 18

Current investment recommendation

My current investment recommendation is to build a core bullion position, supplement that with small natural gas debt free firms and finally with small debt-free exploration gold mining firms. The two that I own and like are Canada Southern Petroleum, Ltd. [CSPLF] and SAMEX mining [SMXMF.OB]. Each has a large upside resource potential and one is trading at a very large discount to its net asset value (CSPLF). In addition, SAMEX is in an announced drill core program at their Los Zorros property in mining-friendly Chile. They have reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine ($12 Billion) 50 km to the North.

END.

Just repeat the latest sentence here:

They have reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine ($12 Billion) 50 km to the North.

For me as an investor, this is the primary reason to invest in companies such as SAMEX. If they are able to find a multi-billion gold/copper deposit, guess what its share price will do ? You can do the math yourself.

Of course some investors would argue to wait for the early drill results first and see if they confirm the reported surface geology, but then again as an investor you would be too late. As said before, companies showing good drill results may jump >50% overnight. So therefore you have to be positioned well in order to profit from a potential discovery.

Best, Eric

Panic sell-off provides great buying opportunity.Last panic sell-off in June was followed by a 93% increase in just 5 trading days.
SAMEX is three month underway in an announced drill core program at their Los Zoros property. The first drill results can come out anytime soon.
SAMEX reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine.
Investors can wait to dump their gold share positions. The XAU lost 1.47 to 101.95, while the HUI gave up 4.20 to 229.40.

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

The key to gold is the physical market. As long as it holds, and it appears it will, The Gold Cartel is going to have their hands full. I will be very surprised if gold doesn’t bolt through $430 this week. Silver should be streaking for $8.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Global: The Day after Tomorrow
Stephen Roach (New York)

http://www.morganstanley.com/G…igests/latest-digest.html

Excerpt:

…There are no quick fixes for America. Yet political campaigns are designed to give voters just such an impression. The day after tomorrow, this charade should come to an end. And just in time, I might add. In my view, 2005 could well be a year when many of America’s imbalances reach their tipping point. A failure to act would be the greatest tragedy of all. Looking at America’s problems through the lens of subpar saving suggests that deficit reduction and a weaker dollar should be at the top of the list of potential remedies -- remedies that, by the way, will have critical implications for world financial markets. Certainly, more can be done. But I can’t think of a better place to start.

On a personal note, I have to add that I have found this election campaign deeply disturbing. The tone of the debate is what troubles me the most. It has fanned a polarization in America and around the world that is right out of some of the darkest pages of history. It didn’t have to be that way. Out of the devastating tragedy of September 11 came a remarkable spirit of bipartisan solidarity. America was united and the world came together -- not just in grief and sorrow but also in hope for collective renewal. I remember being stuck in Europe in the days immediately after the attack on America, unable to return home at a time when I wanted nothing more. I was warmly embraced by our long steadfast allies, with a compassion and sincerity that deeply touched me. Their hearts were open and caring. Their home was my home.

That spirit has been squandered. Americans are at odds with one another, with a deep and worrisome intensity. And the world sees us in a stark, adversarial light. The cynics say this is just politics -- that such divisiveness is the norm, especially during times of war. I beg to differ. Today, polarization is playing on the character of America -- in the end, any nation’s most precious asset. Sadly, that character is now at risk, both at home and abroad. As dawn breaks the day after tomorrow, that will be the first thing on my mind.

http://www.financialsense.com/…ls/schmidt/2004/1031.html

Hier ein netter Link zu Silber.
Ich denke wir sollten da noch ein bisschen mehr Momentum sehen.

PS.:
Kann mir jemand erklären wie man biler in die Postings reinbekommt?

Zitat

Original von silversurfer
[
PS.:
Kann mir jemand erklären wie man biler in die Postings reinbekommt?

Sieh mal unter FAQ Was sind Dateianhänge nach. Sollte Dir weiterhelfen.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Bei Onvista(http://www.onvista.de) gibts eine neue Rohstoffseite
http://rohstoffe.onvista.de/
Was mir auffiel: ein Analyste hat Jubilee auf Verkaufen gesetzt. Warum?

silversurfer

Bilder lassen sich mit dem IMG Befehl ins Posting setzen.

Wenn jedoch die Grafikadresse ein Fragezeichen enthält , scheint dies im Goldseitenforum nicht mehr zu klappen. Im w:o Forum ist das jedoch kein Problem.

In solchen Fällen gibt´s nur die Möglichkeit, über den Dateianhang das Bild zu laden.

Zitat

Original von schuldenblase
Die Meldung hat mich auch irritiert.

Welchen Sinn macht es für einen Verkäufer, durch die Vor-Ankündigung einer Mengenausweitung seiner Lieferungen unweigerlich den Preis seine Verkaufgutes nach unten zu drücken?

Würdest Du das tun? Dir dein eigenes Geschäft vermasseln?

Das ist doch schizophren...

Alles anzeigen

Hallo Schuldenblase,

nur mal eine Frage. Stell dir vor, du bist in großer, hungriger Wolf, der vor sich eine Herde Schafe sieht. Würdest du den Schafen sagen "ich bin sooo hungrig, ich könnte euch alle auffressen," oder würdest du eher sagen "ich bin pappsatt, ich brauch nix mehr." Im ersten Fall würden sicherlich alle Schafe sofort abhauen. Im zweiten Fall dagegen würden sie stehen bleiben - bis sich der Wolf ein fettes Schaf ausgesucht und es gerissen hat. Und weil die Schafe alle etwas leichtgläubig sind, wird dieser Trick wieder und wieder funktionieren.

Wie wir gesehen haben, hat sich der Silberkurs nach seinem sell-off schon wieder recht gut erholt. Wenn die Chinesen spekulieren, dass sich der Kurs wegen ihrer Nachricht erst mal wieder nach Süden bewegt, können Sie Silber für ihre Industrienachfrage günstiger einkaufen und später einen Teil ihrer Bestände teurer verkaufen.

Grüße

extrel

Hier ein Bericht den ich jeden Tag gerne lese um über die nächsten stops bei den Edelmetallen informiert zu sein.
Grüssle,
Silversurfer

Tuesday Nov 02
OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 3:45 AM:

London Gold Fix $425.10 -$3.00

LME COPPER STOCKS 77,125 metric tons -800 tons

COMEX Gold stocks 5.334 ml Unchanged

COMEX Silver stocks 104.6 ml Unchanged

OVERNIGHT ACTION: Japanese buyers failed to discourage generally weak gold action.

GOLD: The gold market already appears to be in a liquidation mode ahead of the US election but that attitude could change quickly if it appears that the race is going to remain a dead heat. The weakness in energy prices is contributing to the slide in gold prices and that may project a slide down to $422.7 basis the December contract. Keep in mind, that the fund and small spec long is massive and that with each passing chart failure, the odds of a more significant washout increase. With the Dollar showing signs of testing the top of the recent consolidation, the gold is also seeing some initial pressure from the currency sector. However, in order for the Dollar to really put the pressure on gold, the December Dollar will have to climb above a critical pivot point of 85.62. While there would seem to be a high probability of a prolonged legal joust following the election today, we suspect that anxiety will be less significant than was seen in 2000, simply because the country has the experience of the 2000 election behind it. We think that longs should stay long but longs should consider securing some put protection just to dampen the negative impact of a temporary post election let down.

SILVER: Trend line support today in December silver comes in at $7.15 but slightly lower support might easily be tested down at $7.06. In the near term, silver will be mostly influenced by gold and with energy prices soft and the Dollar mostly higher, we can understand silver being under a slight bit of pressure during the session today. We think fresh longs need to wait for a correction down to $7.00 before getting long, especially over the coming 24 hour period.

METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 11/2/2004

SILVER (DEC) 11/02/2004: The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside objective is 745.8. The next area of resistance is around 740.0 and 745.8, while 1st support hits today at 726.1 and below there at 717.8.

GOLD (DEC) 11/02/2004: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is 433.2. The next area of resistance is around 430.4 and 433.2, while 1st support hits today at 426.0 and below there at 424.3.

[quote]Original von silversurfer

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/
Ist die webpage bei der man sich für ein 2 Wöchiges Testabo für die GATA-Berichte rebistrieren lassen kann.
Es ist völlig unverbindlich.

quote]

@ silversurfer: Habe meine Registrierung für das 2 wöchige Testabo nun abgeschlossen. Kommen die Berichte nun per Email ? Ab wann soll ich das posten übernehmen bzw. wann läuft Dein Testabo nun aus ???

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von Ulfur

Bilder lassen sich mit dem IMG Befehl ins Posting setzen.

Hallo Ulfur,

Hmm. Könntest Du das für die Uneingeweihten noch etwas ausführlicher erläutern ??? Danke im voraus !

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Vielleicht ist die aktuelle Analyse von Smartinvestor weekly ja von allgemeinem Interesse.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Dollar und Gold

Die labile bzw. unsichere Situation im Zuge der Präsidentschaftswahl könnte vielen Beobachtern zufolge zu einer weiteren Schwäche des Dollars und respektive zu einer weiteren Stärke des Goldes führen. Wie bereits in den letzten Wochen angedeutet, haben wir hier eine anderen Meinung. Der Pessimismus für den Dollar (z.B. gegen Euro) bzw. der Optimismus für das Gold macht uns skeptisch, daß die Erwartungen der Mehrheit so eintreffen werden. Am Beispiel des Goldes wollen wir dies verdeutlichen (sh. Chart). Es ist zu erkennen, das sich der Goldpreis seit dem Tief vom Mai in einer Art Keil nach oben arbeitet. Unserer Ansicht nach ist hier die Gefahr groß, daß der Goldpreis an der Marke von 430 US-$ hängenbleiben wird und - sobald die untere rote Linie durchbrochen ist - in sich zusammenfällt (im krassesten Fall bis auf 370 US-$). Wenn Gold in den vergangenen Wochen deshalb gestiegen ist, weil der Wahlausgang so unsicher ist, und Gold nun einmal von Unsicherheit profitiert, was wäre dann zu erwarten, wenn die Wahl kurz und schmerzlos, sagen wir mit einem Sieger namens Bush, über die Bühne geht? Nun konsequenterweise müßte Gold deutlich nachgeben und respektive der Dollar zulegen. Genau dieses Szenario vermuten wir während der kommenden Wochen und im Zuge dessen eben mit anziehenden Aktienkursen. Wohlgemerkt: Schwache Gold- bzw. Rohstoffpreise erwarten wir zwar auf kurzfristige Sicht (bis zu vier bis acht Wochen), darüber hinaus, also mittel- und langfristig, sind wir aber weiterhin sehr bullish für Rohstoffe.

Zitat

Original von Schwabenpfeil

was wäre dann zu erwarten, wenn die Wahl kurz und schmerzlos, sagen wir mit einem Sieger namens Bush, über die Bühne geht? Nun konsequenterweise müßte Gold deutlich nachgeben

der heutige goldpreis lässt schlimmstes (bush) befürchten........

Schwabenpfeil.

Leider musst Du immer zu Lemetropolecafe auf die Webseite gehen um dann den Bericht in der James Joyce Table zu öfffnen.
Ich denke ab morgen darfst Du das übernehmen.
Das ist ja ein perfektes Timing!!

Die Analyse zu Gold muss ja einfach bearisch aussehen, da Gold es noch nicht wirklich über dei 430 Marke geschafft hat.
Ich denke das sollte sich recht bald haben.
Mann bin ich auf den Wahlausgang gespannt.
Ich hoffe wirklich stark dass es Kerry schafft.

@alle
weiss irgend jemand ob die 911 Fahrenheit reportage von Michel Moore (was gestern auf Pro7 lief) irgend wann wiederholt wird.
Leider habe ich es komplett verpasst.

Alles Gute,

Silversurfer

Heute SAT 1 um 23Uhr 20

In den letzten zwei Jahren hätten die Zentralbankgoldvorräte um 3,2% abgenommen. Dabei haben die Schweiz, Portugal, Großbritannien, Kanada, Niederlande und Griechenland Gold verkauft, während China, Venezuela und Argentinien Gold gekauft haben. Die USA halten mehr als 25% der Weltgoldreserven.

World Central Bank gold holdings decline 3.2% since November 2002

Tuesday, November 02, 2004 12:03:18 PM ET
Prudential Financial

NEW YORK, November 2 (newratings.com) – Analyst John C Tumazos of Prudential Financial mentions that the World Central Bank’s gold holdings have declined by 3.2% since November 2002.

In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the US continues to hold more than 25% of the global gold reserves, despite a decline in its individual reserves in the period since November 2002. The gold reserves of China, Venezuela and Argentina have increased during the two-year period, while Switzerland, Portugal, United Kingdom, Canada, Netherlands and Greece have sold off a part of their holdings, the analyst adds.
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_503696.html

F 9/11 gibts auch in der Videothek.

Morgen,

jetzt hab ich mir die halbe nacht um die Ohren geschlagen und die Trottel da drüben sind immer noch nicht weiter.
Wenn man schaut, was da wieder schief ging, (Stromausfälle; in manchen Computern waren angeblich schon vor der Eröffnung tausende Stimmen gespeichert; im Ausland lebenden Amerikanern wurde gesagt, dass sie keine Möglichkeit zur Briefwahl hätten; Doppelwähler sind wohl auch sehr wahrscheinlich...)
dann sollte es mich wundern, wenn heute der Präsident offiziell ausgerufen werden kann.

Was mich aber dennoch an den Amerikanern beeindruckt (im Gegensatz zu uns in Deutschland mit jeder Menge geistigem Wohlstandsspeck) ist der Wille zu wählen bzw. seiner politischen Meinung Ausdruck zu verleihen.
Stundenlanges, geduldiges warten in langen Schlangen vor den Wahllokalen. Vom organisatorischen Durcheinander diesbezüglich abgesehen, - wer kann sich da seine "freundliche" Karstadtverkäuferin in solch einer Schlange vorstellen?
In Deutschland würde man nach Hause gehen, über eine Unmöglichkeit des langen Wartens klagen und nach dem Wahlausgang jahrelang über die Regierung jammern.

ps, schade habe Fahrenheit 911 auch verpasst.

Hi option63,

mich wundert es, dass es Leute hier in Deutschland gibt, die wegen der US-Wahl die Nacht zum Tag machen. Ist doch eh egal wer gewinnt und das Ergebnis werden wir bald erfahren - wenn die vielen Prozesse vorüber sind, die wegen Wahlmanipulationen geführt werden.

Bzgl. deiner Aussage
"Was mich aber dennoch an den Amerikanern beeindruckt (im Gegensatz zu uns in Deutschland mit jeder Menge geistigem Wohlstandsspeck) ist der Wille zu wählen bzw. seiner politischen Meinung Ausdruck zu verleihen. Stundenlanges, geduldiges warten in langen Schlangen vor den Wahllokalen."
kann ich nur sagen, dass es mich wundert, so etwas von dir zu hören. Ich habe gehört, die Wahlbeteiligung habe auf einem Rekordniveau von etwas über 60 % gelegen. 60 % Wahlbeteiligung bei einer für Amis so wichtigen Wahl! Ein Witz. Das kommt aber wohl daher, dass man sich sozusagen zuerst anmelden muss, damit man wählen darf. Da lob ich mir das unsrige System, bei dem du angeschrieben wirst, wann und wo du wählen kannst. OK, wie hoch die Wahlbeteiligung bei unseren letzten Bundestagswahl war, weiß ich nicht, aber bei der Politikverdrossenheit denke ich, dass sie auch nicht recht viel höher lag al bei den Amis. Es geht mir hier eher ums Prinizp "erst anmelden, dann wählen".

Zu Fahrenheit 9/11: Der Film ist wirklich sehr gut gemacht, so richtig nach der Art von Hollywood. Was Moore allerdings meiner Meinung nach noch genauer hätte rausarbeiten müssen ist die Tatsache, dass die scheinbaren Täter nur Sündenböcke sind und wir Westler auf einen Kampf gegen den Islam eingeschworen werden sollen. Der Ostblock ist tot, es lebe der Islam - als neues Feindbild.
Dennoch werde ich mir den Film wahrscheinlich sogar kaufen.

Grüße

extrel

Zitat

Original von silversurfer

Leider musst Du immer zu Lemetropolecafe auf die Webseite gehen um dann den Bericht in der James Joyce Table zu öfffnen.
Ich denke ab morgen darfst Du das übernehmen.
Das ist ja ein perfektes Timing!!

Hallo silversurfer,

danke für die präzisen Instruktionen Unsere Zusammenarbeit klappt wirklich gut

Ausser diesem GATA Bericht für die nächste Zeit habe ich also hier keine Pflichten ?

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Here we are !

November 2 – Gold $419.70 down $7.20 – Silver $6.99 down 31 cents

Gold Cartel Proves Mike Bolser And GATA Right/Cabal Takes Out Insurance Policy

Cautious, careful people, always casting about to preserve their reputation and social standing, never can bring about a reform. Those who are really in earnest must be willing to be anything or nothing in the world's estimation, and publicly and privately, in season and out, avow their sympathy with despised and persecuted ideas and their advocates, and bear the consequences...Susan B Anthony

GO GATA!!!

"Fast funds" were early buyers, while some of the longer-term moving funds were sellers. Yesterday’s predictable failure to take out $430 ushered in predictable selling today. Early euro weakness didn’t help either. Although, there was little movement in the dollar as the pound and yen remained on plus side all day.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes in the over the counter market, The Gold Cartel lay in waiting to launch a major assault on the price, one predicted by GATA’s Mike Bolser. With gold making 16-year monthly highs Mike put out the following on Friday:

DIVG Update: Ambush Warning on HIGH

Dear Readers:
Today's data fit exactly where they have been aiming for weeks and without a scintilla of deviation. The long-awaited ambush is virtually upon us and the degree to which the Fed has attempted to disguise things (By holding the MCDI low, now for exactly five data points at an extreme) tells me that this one will be severe….

The time for patience and preparedness is NOW. The fact that my indicators culminate at an election is ominous as they can ONLY be steered by the highest levels of government. One can speculate as to the reason but this is a drain of energy.

Better to sit back and calmly wait for the inevitable action to begin and then enter the fray at the safest moment.

I may regret this confidence in simple numbers but this acid test will stand
or it will fall very soon.
Mike

Later that day:

This time around we see an extraordinary Fed effort to disguise intentions even going so far as to let an options expiry pass (Tuesday) with not much action. This move, coupled with other markers, suggests the Fed ambush will be highly coordinated and fierce. Readers should expect anything….. ***

Yesterday from Mike:

Gold tracks unchanged at $427 or thereabouts as we wait patiently for the final Fed move into the open with their ambush. For some time the metrics have pointed to the election….

***

For the short-term Mike has proved me wrong and GATA/himself right. I didn’t think The Cartel could pull this off for the zillionth time and would be so blatant at this sensitive point in time. Mike’s proprietary work said The Gold Cartel would attack and exhibit no shame in doing so. Hat’s off to him.

If you are as disgusted as I am at this fraud, call up your gold company CEO’s and raise a stink. Demand to know what they are doing to end this nightmare. What is the point in investing in these firms if they are going to be vandalized by a corrupt bunch of bankers in New York in cahoots with an Orwellian political establishment? At least demand they read Sprott Asset Management’s publication, "Not Free, Not Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price" and ask for commentary. Shame on you if you take this latest egregious insult without doing what you can to do something about it.

Maybe today’s gold rout will wake up the brain dead out there in the gold world who, incredibly enough, won’t accept the fact the gold market is rigged, and has been for many, many years. Yesterday’s gold open interest rose 4232 contracts to a new high of 327,886. This is more than 20,000 contracts higher than the previous high when gold ran up to $430 earlier this year and leaves the market vulnerable to a short-term bloodbath. Only a SURGING cash market can save the day and keep more funds from bailing out.

ONCE AGAIN, we see how the crooks cap, cap, cap gold and then wait for their chance to turn the specs into sellers. Contrary to what most of the pundits believe, The Gold Cartel uses the dollar to manipulate the gold price. It is the reverse of the common thinking the gold rally is due to dollar weakness. The cabal uses the dollar weakness to lure in specs, using $430 as a ceiling, and then attacks when they believe the time is right. This is blatant fraud because it is orchestrated and violates the US anti-trust laws. No legal expert am I, but it probably violates the racketeering laws also. What other explanation can there be for today’s bombing? The dollar closed at 85.57, up only .23 near its multi-year low. The euro only fell .16 to 127.27. Dollar strength? The pound rose .72 to 183.47 and the yen gained .24 to 106.11. The gold strength/dollar weakness correlation completely fell apart today and bolsters GATA’s claims the market is officially managed.

As further evidence of the gold price manipulation on the Comex, gold was pounded AFTER the London PM Fix, for the umpteenth time. The AM Fix was $425.10 and the PM Fix came in at $424.20. If gold were a randomly traded free market, gold would rally as many times after the PM Fix as it does fall. This is not the case by an impossibly wide statistical margin. The number of times gold has been clobbered following the Fix compared to rallying sharply, is probably 20 to 1, or more.

With the dollar doing little, this was The Gold Cartel’s move to take gold out of the danger area. When gold broke below $422, the funds began to bail in earnest. JP Morgan Chase and Republic Bank actually showed up on the buy side to slow the decline for a brief period of time.

Why did The Gold Cartel attack so ferociously today? My guess is they are petrified of a stalemate election and some ensuing chaos and decided to take out an insurance policy in case the worst case scenario ensues. I understand Republican hack Tucker Carlson was on TV predicting riots if the election isn’t decided tonight. This sort of thinking must have petrified The Gold Cartel with gold so close to $430 and their derivatives positions so exposed to a neutron bomb-like catastrophe in the event of a dramatic price rise above that level. Thus, they must have decided to take no chances and move gold out of the danger area, in the event the dollar is battered tomorrow and breaks down. With the technicals turning bearish, many funds will mechanically sell bullion tomorrow even if the dollar is clobbered. Therefore, a very weak dollar might only effect a small gold rally and make a move above $430 very unlikely. After all, we have a $6 Rule in the US.

What will the outcome of the US Presidential election mean for gold? You got me. Both candidates are Yale Skull & Bonesers and backed by the same big money on Wall Street. Both Clinton and Bush have favored the rigging of the gold price. Can’t see any difference in either Kerry or Bush as far as bullion is concerned. Why do I think times are changing regardless of who wins? It won’t be up to them in the years to come. It is up to the world market and to what extent foreigners gobble up gold at these cheap prices. If it is as I think it is, the bad guys in Washington/New York will soon be overpowered as the cabal’s available gold supply dwindles to the point of no return. As you have heard from me for many years, the gold price will only explode when the corrupt Gold Cartel is blown up, thoroughly defeated.

For reference to this line of thinking, we only need to turn to the new Washington Agreement. All year long we heard it emphasized the signatories would renew the agreement with a 500 tonne per year sales limit. It was the 500 tonnes which was constantly bandied about all year long. The renewal date was September 26, 2004.

So what happened? Prior to the renewal date UBS came out with a report they didn’t believe Europeans could come up with 500 tonnes per year to sell. Since then we haven’t heard a peep out of those in the gold establishment world about the amount of selling. The Washington Agreement was signed without the slightest of fanfare. This is anecdotal proof to me The Gold Cartel is in serious trouble over supply and won’t be able to stave off defeat in the coming months.

Silver was slaughtered as a number of specs ran for the hills. The silver open interest fell 526 contracts to 116,721. A bit of good news after the close. The silver warehouse stocks fell a sizeable 865,060 ounces to 103,759,089. If they break the psychologically important 100 million mark, look out.

A friend queried how silver could break with the stocks disappearing like this? My response: this market is an illusion. One day, when the crooks are beaten, the silver market dynamics will change overnight and the price will go berserk - and not until then.

The John Brimelow Report

At least the Indians are happy

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.77, PM $7.61, with world gold at $425.90 and $425.15. High; comfortably above legal import duty.

Precious metals were soft in Japan, where sentiment towards them is apparently being influenced by oil price movements. The equivalent of 26,005 Comex lots traded (+58%), the active contract fell 11 yen and world gold was $1.75 below the NY close at the end. Open interest did rise the equivalent of 858 Comex lots, but according to Mitsubishi the "general public" added less than 200 Comex contracts to their long. (Platinum open interest actually fell.) (NY yesterday traded 48,140 contracts; open interest jumped by 4,232 contracts to a new record of 327,886.)

Interestingly, the discounts to world gold shown at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which were around $3 yesterday with world gold at $428.85, narrowed sharply today to around $1, with world gold at $424.24. Recently $425 seems to be an extremely sensitive level in Shanghai. Reuters reports kilo bars have slipped to a 20c discount in Hong Kong from flat last week. From the vantage point of physical price differentials, the only clear influence of China on world gold is negative, on the highs.

If Standard London’s web site is meaningful, however, bullion premiums in the Gulf are robust.

The ECB reported another c. 1.6 tonne sale by a subordinate Central Bank. This seems to be a regular weekly event now.

Yesterday, of course, gold followed a strong Asian day with another serious attempt on $430 in NY. Standard London says:

"The metal reached a brief high of 430.30/430.80 where dealer selling capped the price rise."

Some are alarmed by the consequent technical pattern. HSBC:

"Not only is this potentially a "double-top" so beloved by the chartists, but this was also the high seen in January and in the immediate aftermath of the Madrid bombings in March."

This is sensibly assessed by gold’s new friend, Dennis Gartman:

"what more need we say other than to note yet again that the $428-431 level, which proved so formidable late last year and earlier this has proven formidable yet again. Materially weak energy prices, coupled with a dollar that is at least holding its own, are sufficient to draw sellers into the gold market... if not from longs willing to reduce their positions, then from new shorts willing to sell ahead of whoever it is that has put a lid on prices at these current levels of resistance."

Given the substantial (13 tonne) increase in open interest on a down $1.20 day, Gartman might be right about shorting yesterday.

While in the emotionally-overwrought conditions around election time could produce well produce volatility, any effort to drive gold down significantly is going to need substantial bullion deliveries to grateful Indians (and also, quite possibly, aggrieved Arabs).

JB

Later on from John:

35,000 contracts traded between 11-12! Gold only fell from $423 to $419. Bears need to do better than this…

JB