Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Gold Drivers 2005 preview

Introduction

When I started working on an update of the Gold drivers 2004 report I quickly realized that the volume of the new report would make it unusable for an easy read. Therefore I’ve decided to publish each chapter one by one over an 6 week time-span which makes it easier to digest. So what to expect from the Gold drivers 2005 report ? Key drivers for Gold such as the US dollar, demand/supply, negative real rates etc.. will be discussed in each chapter separately. This preview will shine a light on each chapter and gives a good impression of things to come.In the end (mid December) the entire report will be available in pdf format. Readers can drop a mail in order to obtain the entire report.

Chapter I Gold & US$

Projections about a declining dollar due to an ever increasing twin deficit supported by many investment veterans (Buffet, Soros, Rogers,Templeton etc..) are met by much denial from as well politicians as well as from investors. Dick Cheney for example publicly said that deficits don’t matter and that the world is happy to continue investing (and thereby financing these deficits) in the US. Sure, as long as foreigners are willing to pour in the amount of $2 billion dollars every working day the dollar won’t crash. But if foreign confidence were to wane, the US dollar will be heading south. Already rumors are surfacing (source Financial Times) that China is selling US dollars and buying Asian currencies in readiness to switch the renminbi's dollar peg to a basket arrangement, something Chinese officials have increasingly hinted at. However some analysts argue that the mountain of US debt should work as a ‘synthetic short position’ in the dollar which would result in a sharp appreciation of the dollar. This chapter deals with these issues in detail and will show that no matter how you look at the US twin deficits and America’s future fiscal liabilities, this problem is huge and some painful adjustments not only seem to be necessary but unavoidable as well. It should be obvious that one of these major painful adjustments will be a massive devaluation of the US dollar. It seems that the idea of a dollar devaluation is gaining support from the FED when the president of the Dallas Fed, Robert McTeer recently said :

“over time, there is only one direction for the dollar to go – lower."

Former ECB president Wim Duisenberg quoted by Spanish Newspaper El Pais recently said :”A dollar devaluation seems inevitable due to the tremendous US Current Account deficit.” Furthermore he recently said on Dutch television that we can only hope and pray for a smooth economic transition in the US. END. Well, I can’t help but to think that he’s afraid of a dollar crash. Why is this so important ? Simple, the US dollar is the primary key driver for Gold, as the dollar goes, so will gold but in opposite direction, gold is the anti-dollar with a high inversed correlation to the dollar ! In the end, gold is still a monetary asset and trades like a currency.

Chapter II Gold & Inflation, Interest rates, negative real rates

Although official inflation statistics do suggest that inflation is well under control, the opposite seems to be true. Just ask people if they are happy with sky-rocketing food, energy and health care prices and you’ll get an idea. Hedonic adjusted Pentium IV processors won’t cure the pain felt in consumer pockets. Needless to say that over 90% of the American public don’t believe the official inflation statistics and neither does PIMCO’s managing director Bill Gross.

A dollar devaluation and future inflation seems to be inevitable coming years due to the astronomical fiscal liabilities of the US government. Peter Peterson, secretary of commerce during the Nixon administration and Prof. Laurence Kotlikof, senior economist at the President’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) during the first Reagan administration, published excellent books lately ( “Running on Empty” , “the coming Generational Storm” ) in which they explain in greatest detail why the US is heading towards bankruptcy. They project a fiscal liability of more than 50$ trillion which requires a budgetary resource that only inflation can provide. Sure, these topics weren’t discussed during last presidential debates and the brave ones dealing with this issue and willing to tell the truth are simply fired (O’Neill). O’Neill after his resignation :

"It’s all about sound bites, deluding the people, pandering to the lowest common denominator," he said. "I didn’t adjust (in Washington) and I’m not going to start now."

So a fiscal gap of $50 trillion+ is looming on the horizon but the sad truth is that this amount of money isn’t simply there. As Prof. Laurence Kotlikoff says, it requires a budgetary resource that only inflation can provide. Inflation leads to higher Gold prices. Will the FED follow the inflation curve by hiking short term rates as well ?

The FED started raising interest rates from a 40 year low of 1.0% but still has a long way to go to catch up with more realistic inflation figures. As Long as the FED stays behind the inflation curve real rates will stay negative which have been according to its own history one of the strongest drivers for Gold. Furthermore this chapter will shine a light on rising rates and Gold. The mainstream argument that rising rates are the death for Gold (a rate-hike should strengthen the dollar and therefore be bearish for Gold) is simply a lie. Rising rates as a result of a dropping dollar is very Gold friendly. What does history say about rising rates and Gold ? Well, the chart below doesn’t need any further explanation :

Chapter III Gold & demand

Demand for Gold is growing these days. It comes from several sectors such as , producer dehedging, increase of investment demand, shift from CB selling into CB buying etc.

Just China itself will contribute considerably to the expected increase in demand for Gold.

Last year the Honk Kong edition of Friday’s China Daily quoted the Bank of China’s bullion guru saying : “local consumers could pour $36 billion into the metal, equivalent to around 2,950 tonnes, or more than one year of supply, at current prices.” Xi Jianhua, the Bank of China's gold business expert, is also quoted saying that it would be "safe and feasible" for China swap to some foreign exchange reserves for gold. Furthermore the World Gold Council reported that Chinese demand for Gold is expected to triple in next few years. Besides China, also the CB’s of Russia and Argentina are accumulating Gold. Regarding Producer dehedging expect this program to continue at the rate of at least 300 ton/year coming years. Hedging is dead and won’t be reinvented this decade. This should be obvious when the king of hedgers Barrick Gold announced earlier this year that they won’t do any hedging anymore for the next 10 years ! Furthermore issues such introduction of Gold ETF’s and industrial Gold demand will be covered.

Chapter IV Gold & Supply

The Gold industry is facing a decline in Gold production coming years. This is a direct consequence of a lack of Exploration during the 1997 – 2002 period. Exploration budgets have been cut by 67% during this period due to uneconomical prices of Gold. From 2002 onwards many Alarm Bells were being raised regarding future Gold production. Alex Davidson (Vice President Exploration Barrick Gold) said last year : "Big mining companies need to spend more on exploration, or else, at current annual production rates, reserves will be depleted in 10 years, he said. It can take six to eight years between making a discovery and starting mine production, and "we're not currently funding exploration at a level required to replace reserves," Davidson said." Well fortunately the Exploration sector attracted more investment capital again since 2003 but the sad truth is that it doesn’t matter how much money you’ll throw at Exploration, no matter what the Gold price is, it still takes 3 – 5 years from scratch before a big discovery will be made and after that it still takes 4 – 7 years before a mine can be opened in order to mine the new discovery. This year (2004) showed painfully clear that the miners do face a decline of Gold production indeed. Even a blind man can see the supply/demand gap widening sharply coming years which will fuel the primary uptrend in Gold.

Projected decline in Gold production see chart below :

Chapter V Gold & Manipulation

Although this topic won’t be discussed by most main-stream Gold analysts (because they don’t want to be associated with groups like GATA) it’s getting harder and harder for them to ignore the ever increasing amount of circumstantial evidence which they provide. This chapter will show the rapid increase of support for GATA’s manipulation claims and discusses the Blanchard case. (GATA predicted years ago that sooner or later JPMorgan and Barrick Gold would be sued due to their Gold manipulation scheme, how right they proved to be) Furthermore it will address key questions which GATA opponents always fail to answer, questions such as :

Why do enormous derivatives build ups in Gold among the big bullion dealers (commercials) always coincide with drastic declines in the price of Gold ?

How come that 4 standard deviation preemptive selling events pop up EXACTLY 6 months prior to 2,600 tonne gold deliveries in the UK according to Her Majesty's Customs records ?

How come that these repeated events would happen only once by chance in 1,538 years of COMEX trading.

How come that leading statistics professors have concluded intervention is real ?

Straight MA lines simply don’t exist in free traded markets. How come that they are clearly visible in the charts of the dollar index adjusted value of Gold ?

Why the commercial dealers NEVER run for cover when the speculators are piling in big time, they (the commercials) just keep selling and selling until the long specs are getting tired of failing breaking key-resistance levels and start bailing out en masse thereby giving the commercial dealers exactly what they want which is a possibility to cover their shorts at much more convenient (cheaper) levels. So the commercials NEVER lose, is this same pattern visible in other free-traded markets ?

How come that furious attacks on Gold always happen during COMEX sessions and without any downside limit ?

How come that during COMEX sessions the price of Gold NEVER appreciates more than $6 ? And when it does (less than 3 times a year) , why is it smashed down right away the very next day ?

The statements mentioned above are going against all common TA logic. The technical analysts do fail again and again because they consider two parties only in the game, those who are seeking profits and those who are fearing losses, but the truth is that there is a third player in the market as well and that’s the US government. Whatever their main reason is (protection of the dollar, keeping inflation expectations in check, avoiding a flee from equities into precious metals, etc..) , they don’t seem to be pleased with a sharp rise in the price of Gold.

Hallo Freunde der Metalle,

der Gata bericht von Gestern liest sich ja wirklich toll.

Was mich sehr überrascht hat, war der Wertverlust des USD im Verglsich zum Columbianischen Peso, dass Hartholzverkaüfer Ihre Kunden anrufen müssen um den Preis zu erhöhen.

Insgesamt zeigt das sich auch beim Euro - wir hatten gestern ja kurz die 1,30- Marke geknackt.

Wenn sich alles so weiterentwickelt, und auch die Asiaten mit dem Dollar-Verkauf anfangen, dann wird das noch ein heisses Jahresende

Ich hoffe dass beim Silber die COMEX-Lager bald unter 100 Mio Unzen fallen werden, und dann geht die Lucy richtig ab ;(.

Was auch sehr interessant ist bei diesem Gata-Bericht, die An-Verkauf-Marge ist bei Gold über 6 USD, was wirklich eine schöne entwicklung ist.

Ob Kollege/Kollegin SPICA recht hat dass ab dem 11.11. der Bär tanzt.
Oder ist das nur ein "Narren-Anfangszeit"-Scherz?

Ich dachte zuerst nur der Wahlausgang in USA wird ein Krimi, aber der Krimi ist jetzt immer noch voll am laufen, und wird wahrscheinlich die Spannungspunkte immer weiter aufbauen.

Chapter VI Gold & Monetary use

Since 1971 no currency with any kind of Gold backing does exist so many analysts do argue that Gold hasn’t any monetary status anymore. Well, nothing could be further from the truth. In 1971 president Nixon closed the Gold window. Critics of Gold back then argued that Gold had lost its monetary use and therefore would collapse below 35 US$ / ounce. They assumed that the paper dollar gave value to Gold, not the other way around, they did not know that Gold was money. So what happened ? Instead of falling below $35 it took off skyrocketing all the way up to its all time high of $850 US$ / ounce. Why ? Because investors lost their confidence in the US$. So where to go with your money when you lose your confidence in the world’s reserve currency ? Well, there is only one reliable alternative to the world’s reserve currency and that is Gold. It’s that simple, Alan Greenspan says : “Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.” When confidence in the world’s reserve currency is high there is no need to hold Gold and vice versa. Therefore Gold holds a tight inverse correlation to the dollar and is called the anti-dollar (see chapter I). The financial authorities these days admit that Gold still remains an important monetary asset.

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world." - Alan Greenspan, Testimony before US House Banking Committee, May 1999.

"Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves." - Statement by the European Central Bank, September 1999.

Some CB’s who want to diversify from their dollars are accumulating Gold. Recent examples are the CB’s of China, Russia and Argentina.

Furthermore some countries are investigating the possibility of launching the Gold Dinar which if they succeed in doing so will strengthen Gold’s monetary role only further.

Chapter VII Gold & Oil

This chapter will shine a light on previous oil shocks and their consequences. As we will see, previous oil shocks were a perfect call for higher inflation figures and recession. Will this time be any different ? According to Alan Greenspan yes, he says that higher oil prices won’t be much of a problem for the economy these days and inflation won’t pop up as during the seventies.

Well, energy experts such as Mathew Simmons and Colin Campbell do think otherwise.

They make a powerful case for the end of cheap energy. The nasty consequence of a lack of cheap energy is the end of economic growth. Will we ever come out of a recession again for a sustained period of time ? Well, Richard Heinberg author of “The Party is over – Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies” doesn’t think so. Matthew Simmons (energy advisor for Dick Cheney) just uses different words, he says : “ there is not one serious economist in this world who would say that you can have significant economic growth without the availability of cheap energy.” Simmons rules out the possibility of cheap energy coming decades. When asked if there is a solution to the impending energy crisis he said : “I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty.” END. We’ll have to get used to oil prices far exceeding the $100/barrel mark. This leads us to the Gold/Oil ratio which is at an historic low these days. Such imbalances won’t stay there for a long period of time so what gives ? Oil going down or Gold catching up ?

This chapter provides some background material explaining what Peak-Oil is all about and what its impact could be on the world economy.

Chapter VIII Gold & Investment opportunities in junior gold mining/exploration companies

Since the start of the current bull market in Gold in 2001 the Gold share index HUI appreciated by more than 600%. Still lot of denial does exist among fund managers regarding the strength of this current bull. It seems that the first phase of this bull market in Gold (which was characterized by denial) is in its latest stage and phase two (which will be characterized by acceptance) will be launched by slashing Gold’s 16 year high of $430. Expect some serious inflow of investment capital during this second phase of the bull market in Gold and watch out what will happen with the high quality junior mining firms. They can go ballistic but it requires a stomach of steel in order to keep them during severe corrections. They tend to rise faster as their senior brothers but also the opposite is true, they fall much harder during corrections, so investors should get used to increasing volatility among the junior shares. Is an investment in a junior mining firm extremely risky as some people want you to believe ? Well, Ian Gordon (vice president of Canacord Capital and editor of the long Wave Analyst) gave some presentations in Europe lately (sept 04) in order to promote the investment opportunities in junior mining firms.

His presentation was titled:

“Investing in Junior Gold Mining Shares. What risk? What reward?”

He clearly pointed out that an investment made today in a high quality junior mining firm should not be categorized as being a high risk investment. Why not ? Because you’ll buy them at historic low levels today thereby reducing the downside risk towards a minimum.

So what makes the juniors so special then ? Well, the reason is twofold. First of all the senior producers will go after them so why won’t you as an investor do the same ? Second is that Juniors tend to rise much faster in a Gold bull market as their senior brothers but as said before also the opposite is true, they’ll drop much faster during severe corrections. So why are the senior producers hunting for the better juniors ? Well, the Gold industry is facing a decline in Gold production coming years and the senior gold producers will be struggling in order to replace their dwindling gold reserves. How do you think major producers are going to replace their dwindling Gold reserves in short term ? The only way out for them is to go after the better junior companies with promising assets or on the verge of discovery. Remember that the juniors are responsible for 75% of all discoveries, so that makes it quite obvious why the senior producers are heading this way. Barrick already opened an office earlier this year in Vancouver in order to monitor Junior companies, AngloGold speaks pubicly about take overs of high quality junior mining companies, Goldfields invests in Juniors etc… The trend is obvious.

This chapter will show that junior mining companies should benefit more from a rise in the price of Gold as their senior brothers and should benefit tremendously from major discoveries because their senior brothers are watching them like a hawk !

END.

See you back next week with Chapter VIII “Gold & Investment opportunities in junior gold mining/exploration companies”

I won’t publish the chapters in chronicle sequence. I’m still working on all chapters right now and will publish whatever comes first. As said before readers who are interested in the entire report can drop a mail. I’ll send the report in pdf format somewhere around mid December.

Zitat

Original von silversurfer

Ich dachte zuerst nur der Wahlausgang in USA wird ein Krimi, aber der Krimi ist jetzt immer noch voll am laufen, und wird wahrscheinlich die Spannungspunkte immer weiter aufbauen.

Hallo silversurfer,

ja es ist richtig spannend momentan das Wirtschaftsgeschehen zu verfolgen. Besonders gespannt bin auch ich über die weitere Entwicklung der Lagerbestände von Silber.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Schwabenpfeil.

Hallo Schwabenpfeil.
da diese Seite nun recht lange offline war, könntest Du bitte so nett sein und die GAta Berichte von Montag und Dienstag bitte auch noch reinstellen, da anscheinend Mike Bolser, der die Berichte schreibt anscheinend vor einem kurzen heftigen Rücksetzer warnt.

Bin echt gespannt.

Grüssle,
Silversurfer

Na, das ist ja mal was, wenn sogar scon Merill bullish wird, könnte es sehr bald sein dass die "breitere" Öffentlichkeit immer "näher" zu den Edelmetallen herangeführt wird.

INTERVIEW: Gold Supply Under Pressure - Merrill Fund Mgr
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)-

-Merrill Lynch Investment Managers have a favorable outlook for gold, underpinned primarily by emerging pressures on supply, a leading member of the firm's London-based natural resources team said late Tuesday.

Amid "relatively static" demand, falling mine output over the coming years and the potential for a reduction in European central bank sales stand to prolong the rally in U.S. dollar gold prices, Merrill gold fund manager Evy Hambro explained during a visit to Sydney.

"We are definitely in a positive environment...and that's going to remain until the fundamentals deteriorate, and we don't see that changing," Hambro said on the sidelines of a presentation to financial advisers.

Spot gold reached a 16-year high of US$436.85 a troy ounce Tuesday. At 0700 GMT, it was quoted at US$433.88/oz.

Hambro's seven-member team is one of the world's largest managers of gold equity investments, overseeing about US$6.5 billion spread between several mining funds.

Strong currencies in many of the leading gold-producing countries are actually forcing production cuts, despite the high U.S. dollar gold price, Hambro explained.

"We've got a situation where the mined production of gold is going to be declining for the foreseeable future," he said.

According to London-based precious metals market consultant GFMS Ltd., global mine production in 2003 remained flat about 2,590 tons.

While there are pockets of new supply emerging in countries like Russia and China, Hambro said global output will inevitably suffer from a lack of exploration.

"One of the big changes in the mining sector as a whole has been a significant cut (in) exploration expenditure, which is obviously reducing the probability of finding new projects to exploit," he explained.

Thus, gold reserves are increasingly being mined at a faster rate than they are being replaced, Hambro said.

"For example, (Newmont Mining Corp.) has to find seven million ounces of gold a year just to stand still; in order to grow, they've got to (increase reserves) more than that," he said of the world's largest producer.

The same is true of other top producers, such as South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), Hambro said.

"You don't find seven million ounce gold mines every day," he said.

Prospect Of Falling Central Bank Sales "Very, Very Exciting"

A less certain, but nonetheless bullish, component of Hambro's views on gold supply is the uncertainty surrounding European central bank sales.

Early this year, 15 European central banks renewed their five-year-old gold sales accord, known as the Washington Agreement, for a further five years.

Under the terms of the original deal, which expired in September, the signatories agreed to limit aggregate sales to 400 tons a year, or a total of 2,000 tons over the life of the accord.

While the extension raised the annual cap to 500 tons,this is "still well within the amount the market can tolerate," Hambro said.

But the growing prospect that total sales will fall below the 2,500 ton five-year cap, possibly by a wide margin, represents significant upside potential for gold, he noted.

"The question mark surrounding this agreement is who is actually going to sell the gold, and this is what is posing the big opportunity in the market today," Hambro said.

Large sellers under the first deal, including the Swiss central bank and the Bank of England, are likely to all but stand aside this time, according to analysts.

"The original speculation focused on the Germans, the French and the Italians," Hambro said, referring to possible major sellers under the new agreement.

Initially, government officials from the aforementioned countries were widely believed to be in favor of liquidating large chunks of their bullion reserves to balance their budgets and retire debt.

But in recent months, disagreements between government officials and central bankers, surrounding the mechanics and legal aspects of deploying the proceeds from gold sales, have diminished the likelihood of large sales by France and Germany.

"And the Italians have come out... and said they're not going to sell their gold at all and have no plans to do so," Hambro said.

The market is thus currently trying to figure out who might actually sell bullion, and musing over the possibility that total sales might fall well short of the 2,500 ton limit, Hambro explained.

"If gold is not sold under this agreement, then the market will be very, very exciting for a number of years to come," he said. "The market could not tolerate an absence of supply to this degree without prices having to rise."

Ja, selbst J.P.Morgan hält nun 500$ für möglich. Möchte wissen, was Thaiguru dazu sagen würde.

Was war denn mit dem Forum los? Habe gestern und heute per Mail bei Goldseiten nachgefragt, ohne Antwort. Hätten wenigstens auf der Hauptseite einen Hinweis geben können.

Hiho!

Ist zwar nicht der gesuchte Mike Bolser-Text,dafür aber trotzdem interessant:

By Dow Jones News Service
Wednesday, November 10, 2004

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041110/15/3oel8.html

SYDNEY -- Merrill Lynch Investment Managers have a
favorable outlook for gold, underpinned primarily by
emerging pressures on supply, a leading member of
the firm's London-based natural resources team said
late Tuesday.

Amid "relatively static" demand, falling mine output
over the coming years and the potential for a reduction
in European central bank sales stand to prolong the
rally in U.S. dollar gold prices, Merrill gold fund
manager Evy Hambro explained during a visit to
Sydney.

"We are definitely in a positive environment ...
and that's going to remain until the fundamentals
deteriorate, and we don't see that changing,"
Hambro said on the sidelines of a presentation
to financial advisers.

Spot gold reached a 16-year high of US$436.85
a troy ounce Tuesday. At 0700 GMT, it was
quoted at US$433.88/oz.

Hambro's seven-member team is one of the world's
largest managers of gold equity investments,
overseeing about US$6.5 billion spread between
several mining funds.

Strong currencies in many of the leading
gold-producing countries are actually forcing
production cuts, despite the high U.S. dollar gold
price, Hambro explained.

"We've got a situation where the mined production of
gold is going to be declining for the foreseeable
future," he said.

According to London-based precious metals market
consultant GFMS Ltd., global mine production in
2003 remained flat about 2,590 tons.

While there are pockets of new supply emerging in
countries like Russia and China, Hambro said global
output will inevitably suffer from a lack of exploration.

"One of the big changes in the mining sector as a
whole has been a significant cut (in) exploration
expenditure, which is obviously reducing the
probability of finding new projects to exploit," he
explained.

Thus, gold reserves are increasingly being mined at
a faster rate than they are being replaced, Hambro
said.

"For example, (Newmont Mining Corp.) has to find
7 million ounces of gold a year just to stand still;
in order to grow, they've got to (increase reserves)
more than that," he said of the world's largest
producer.

The same is true of other top producers, such as
South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), Hambro
said.

"You don't find 7 million ounce gold mines every day,"
he said.

A less certain, but nonetheless bullish, component of
Hambro's views on gold supply is the uncertainty
surrounding European central bank sales.

Early this year, 15 European central banks renewed
their 5-year-old gold sales accord, known as the
Washington Agreement, for a further five years.

Under the terms of the original deal, which expired
in September, the signatories agreed to limit aggregate
sales to 400 tons a year, or a total of 2,000 tons over
the life of the accord.

While the extension raised the annual cap to 500 tons,
this is "still well within the amount the market can
tolerate," Hambro said.

But the growing prospect that total sales will fall
below the 2,500 ton five-year cap, possibly by a wide
margin, represents significant upside potential for gold,
he noted.

"The question mark surrounding this agreement is
who is actually going to sell the gold, and this is what
is posing the big opportunity in the market today,"
Hambro said.

Large sellers under the first deal, including the Swiss
central bank and the Bank of England, are likely to all
but stand aside this time, according to analysts.

"The original speculation focused on the Germans, the
French, and the Italians," Hambro said, referring to
possible major sellers under the new agreement.

Initially, government officials from the aforementioned
countries were widely believed to be in favor of liquidating
large chunks of their bullion reserves to balance their
budgets and retire debt.

But in recent months, disagreements between
government officials and central bankers, surrounding
the mechanics and legal aspects of deploying the
proceeds from gold sales, have diminished the
likelihood of large sales by France and Germany.

"And the Italians have come out ... and said they're
not going to sell their gold at all and have no plans to
do so," Hambro said.

The market is thus currently trying to figure out
who might actually sell bullion, and musing over the
possibility that total sales might fall well short of the
2,500-ton limit, Hambro explained.

"If gold is not sold under this agreement, then the
market will be very, very exciting for a number of
years to come," he said. "The market could not
tolerate an absence of supply to this degree without
prices having to rise."

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ohne Worte

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041110/15/3oel8.html

Wie gesagt, sehr schöner Artikel. Da macht es nichts, wenn er dreimal gepostet wird.

Zitat

Original von silversurfer
Schwabenpfeil.

Hallo Schwabenpfeil.
da diese Seite nun recht lange offline war, könntest Du bitte so nett sein und die GAta Berichte von Montag und Dienstag bitte auch noch reinstellen, da anscheinend Mike Bolser, der die Berichte schreibt anscheinend vor einem kurzen heftigen Rücksetzer warnt.

Bin echt gespannt.

Grüssle,
Silversurfer

Alles anzeigen

Hallo Silversurfer,
Rücksetzer würde ich jetzt auf jeden Fall aussitzen. Zu hoch das Risiko den abfahrenden Zug zu verpassen. Keine Schreckensfassade kann mich von meiner Überzeugung abbringen, mit diesem Zug abzufahren.

Smartie

Zitat

Original von Ulfur
Wie gesagt, sehr schöner Artikel. Da macht es nichts, wenn er dreimal gepostet wird.

upps... habe ich übersehen, sorry.

Smartie

Also ich beschloss ab jetzt immer ein kurzes summary der Gata Kacke zu machen.

Es ist so: kommt Regen....kommt Sonne oder auch andersrum .....wie auch immmer die bösen Buben sind an der Comix und die Comms sind üble Finger.Gold steigt und fällt nochmal.

Das könnt ihr jeden Tag so reinsetzen,...........das lese ich seit % jahren von diesen Gatafritzen.

Greets

Dottore Lupo

Zitat

Original von silversurfer

da diese Seite nun recht lange offline war, könntest Du bitte so nett sein und die GAta Berichte von Montag und Dienstag bitte auch noch reinstellen, da anscheinend Mike Bolser, der die Berichte schreibt anscheinend vor einem kurzen heftigen Rücksetzer warnt.

Hallo Silversurfer,

das war wirklich eine größere Panne hier im Forum ... Keine Angst, es wird alles "nachdokumentiert", braucht aber wegen der Fülle wahrscheinlich etwas Zeit

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Schwabenpfeil.

DANKE!!!

@alle.

Die Chinesen bereiten etwas vor.
Das könnte für die für die Freunde des Edelmetalls spassig werden.

=DJ CHINA WATCH:Yuan Talk Spreads Through Population
2004-11-11 01:39 (New York)

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Expectations for a revaluation of China's yuan are
spreading from the financial markets into the population at large, as ordinary
Chinese scramble to exchange their holdings of U.S. dollars.
In recent months, global currency markets have increasingly bet China will
soon loosen its de facto peg of the yuan to the dollar, allowing the local
currency to rise. The offshore market in non-deliverable yuan forwards now
shows expectations that the dollar will fall to CNY7.937 in 12 months - a yuan
rise of 4.3% from the "peg" rate of CNY8.2770.
In the past few weeks, masses of Chinese individuals have begun joining the
bet as small businessmen, housewives, retirees and others with U.S. dollar
savings flock to banks or underground money changers.
That marks a big change of outlook in China, where U.S. dollars have
traditionally been held in bank accounts or under matresses as a safe hedge
against volatility in the domestic economy.
"People around me have been telling me that the yuan will soon appreciate and
that the U.S. dollar is at risk of depreciating, so in the end I decided to
change all the U.S. dollars I have," said a Shanghai housewife in her 40s who
asked only to be identified as Wang.
Every month Wang receives a remittance of U.S. dollars from her son, who
lives abroad after going overseas to study. Though currency regulations may
make it hard to obtain large amounts of U.S. dollars if she needs them in
future, "at a minimum one can be sure the yuan won't depreciate while talk of
the dollar depreciating is growing, and safety is the main thing for me," Wang
said.
That reasoning appears to be taking hold in China's urban centers.
Conversions of U.S. dollars into yuan by individual customers at the Shanghai
branch of Bank of China, one of the country's big four commercial banks, surged
17% in September from US$180 million in August, and ballooned a further 34% in
October, according to a commercial banker.
Local media have reported similar strong interest in selling U.S. dollars at
commercial bank branches in the eastern Chinese cities of Nanjing, Suzhou and
Hangzhou over the past couple of weeks.
If this pattern is being duplicated nationwide, U.S. dollar sales by Chinese
individuals may have increased by many hundreds of millions of dollars per
month over the past two months.
Although data on Chinese individuals' total holdings of U.S. dollars aren't
regularly provided, their foreign currency deposits totaled US$88.5 billion in
late 2002, according to a report by the official Xinhua News Agency.
According to some banking sources, some bank branches have in recent months
imposed a limit of US$10,000 on the amount of U.S. dollars that an individual
can exchange each day, in an effort to prevent the scramble from overwhelming
them.
Small and medium-sized Chinese businesses are part of the trend. According to
figures from the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission's branch in the rich
eastern province of Jiangsu, corporate deposits of U.S. dollars in the province
increased by US$1.17 billion in the first 10 months of this year - but in the
last month of that period they increased by only a few million dollars,
representing a dramatic slowdown in growth.
The currency black market is also caught up in the scramble. Among the
illicit currency traders who loiter near the doors of commercial bank branches
in Shanghai's Bund district, there's talk that an increasing number have
actually been entering the branches to dump their U.S. dollar holdings.
The black market appears to be handling a significant amount of the increased
U.S. dollar sales; the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued
repeated warnings that it will crack down on illegal currency traders, and this
week it said investigations had exposed an underground bank in Fujian province
illegally shifting large amounts of foreign currency.
Fourteen people were arrested and 22 bank accounts with combined deposits of
CNY10 million (US$1.2 million) were seized. Three commercial bank employees who
introduced customers to illegal operation were netted in the swoop; those
employees were using legitimate bank accounts to carry out the illegal
transactions, making it difficult for investigators to follow the money trail.
Two recent events in particular have spurred Chinese individuals to dump U.S.
dollars. One was China's first interest rate hike in a decade, which was
announced on Oct. 28 and raised the return on yuan deposits; many people view
it as part of a macroeconomic package which will include a yuan revaluation.
The other event was the U.S. presidential election; many Chinese think that
with George W. Bush re-elected, China will be able to adjust its currency
without fear of it becoming a political issue.
In an effort to curb speculation, Chinese officials have continued to insist
no yuan revaluation is imminent; for example Vice Finance Minister Lou Jiwei
was quoted as saying by state media Thursday that a large move in the yuan was
unlikely in the near term.
Other officials, however, have continued to refer to the need for eventual
currency reform and flexibility in the currency system. Last weekend, central
bankers, commercial bankers and government officials held a closed-door meeting
in Shanghai to exchange views on currency policy; no policy decision was made,
but the meeting was widely interpreted as one step in preparing for revaluation
down the road.
So for many ordinary Chinese like Wang, selling U.S. dollars will probably
continue to seem the safest course. Wang noted that as late as the early part
of October, comments by Chinese officials still suggested an interest rate hike
wasn't imminent, even though it was.
"Many currency speculators have told me that if expectations of yuan
appreciation continue building, there could very well be a move this year. In
any case, I think there will be some kind of move in the first half of next
year," she said.

-With George Chen, Dow Jones Newswires; 8621 6218-3268;

Kurz noch in deutsch:
-Privatleute in China verkaufen USD gegen Yuan
-Yuan könnte an Wert zulegen
-Regierung könnte Yuan-USD Bindung aufheben, was den Experten zu folge den Yuan um bis zu 20% an Wert (in USD) anheben könnte.
möglicherweise bereits zum Jahresende.