Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Appendix

US Dlr Crisis Could Catapult Gold Over $600

By Jim Hawe

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The price of gold could surge to levels not seen since the early 1980s if a big chunk is taken out of the value of the U.S. dollar in coming years, one market insider says.

A further devaluation of the greenback by 20%-30% would make bullion more attractive as an alternative store of value and could propel the yellow meta over $600 a troy ounce, said Michael Kosares, founder and president of gold firm USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals Inc.

Kosares said crumbling confidence in the U.S. currency due to America's enormous budget and current-account deficits has left investors scampering for safe havens such as gold.

Phones at his Denver-based office have been ringing off the hook recently and there has been a sharp increase in requests for gold-investing information packets over his company's Internet site, he said.

"There has been increased buying by our regular customers, but also by a lot of first-time investors," said Kosares.

These investors have taken note that gold has been moving higher in a very tight inverse correlation to the drubbing of the U.S. dollar.

The author of "The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership" said the weak dollar trend will likely continue for the next four years with the Bush administration taking an almost benign stance toward the waning dollar.

"The euro bottomed against the dollar at 82 cents (October 2000) and has since peaked at around $1.30, an appreciation of 58%. In a similar manner, gold has risen 72% since its bottom," said Kosares. Gold hit a low of around $255 in April of 2001, but has been trading just under $440 in recent sessions.

The Wall Street Journal and Japan's Nikkei Financial Daily in recent days have both reported what currency traders have long suspected - that while the administration under President George W. Bush continues to say it favors a "strong dollar," it is happy to let the greenback fall. Barring increased U.S. saving or decreased consumption, a weaker dollar is one of the few remedies for the country's current-account gap.

The Nikkei report, in line with many economists' estimates, concluded the dollar would need to fall by 20%-30% to halve the ratio of the U.S. current account deficit to the gross domestic product - now near 6%.

This is the same 20%-30% devaluation Kosares said could kick gold over $600.

Dehedging - Backbone of Bull Market

In addition to the flagging U.S. currency, Kosares said market supply and demand fundamentals also offer some compelling reasons to get into gold.

One of the most promising developments has been the trend among mining companies to close out their hedge positions.

As gold prices fell during the 1990s, mining firms aggressively hedged some of their gold, essentially locking in fixed prices for a portion of their future production.

However, this strategy backfires when gold prices are on the rise as miners are still forced to sell the hedged portion at the promised prices.

However, this trend reversed from around 2001 as miners began actively dehedging, or buying back hedged gold, to give themselves greater exposure to the suddenly rising spot prices.

Kosares described the huge swing in hedging to dehedging as the "backbone of the current gold bull market."

And this trend is expected to continue. A GFMS report out last week stated that the global hedge book is still saddled with around 60.4 million ounces, or 1,877 tons, which is equivalent to 75% of annual mine production. Kosares said
this figure could actually be more than 2,000 tons.

Kosares said he believes miners will keep buying back their hedged gold in what he says will be like "having built-in market support for the next five years."

Going For The Gold Investment Advice

Looking ahead, Kosares said gold could be sitting in the $460s by the end of the year, with a move over $500 in 2005. A foray over $550 and even $600 is possible if the dollar loses another 20%-30%.

Gold opened Monday in Sydney at $437.20, compared with $437.85.

So just how much gold should investors be stuffing into their portfolios? Kosares said the commonly cited 5% weighting may be too small in light of the current environment and suggests placing 10% of one's portfolio in gold.

"Gold isn't so much an investment as it is a type of savings or insurance against currency devaluation," he said. "I think if you look at an investment pyramid you would have savings at the bottom and I think gold should be a part of that savings."

-By Jim Hawe, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2950; jim.hawe@dowjones.com

-Edited by Nick vonKlock

Schwabenpfeil

Du schreibst:

"klar fehlen uns die alten Fahrensmänner und Boardexperten. Irgendwie ist die Situation ja schon komisch: Die Häuptlinge fast isoliert bei Silberinfo; die Indianer bei Goldseiten"

Also ich ziehe so manchen Schwaben samt Pfeil so manchem Häuptling Big Mouth eindeutig vor
An dieser Stelle also mal wieder ein Dankeschön im Namen aller für Deine Arbeit.

Ich für meinen Teil vermisse keine Häuptlinge...
Und man sieht sehr schön, wie sehr vom Hungertod bedroht ein Rudel
Häuptlinge ist

Nachfolgend einer meiner Lieblingsautoren:

Viele Grüße
Spieler

Let the second phase begin
Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
November 16, 2004

Extracted from the Nov 15th, 2004 edition of Richard's Remarks

Today it isn't a question of how much paper money there is in the world or how much gold is being mined. The question is how much distrust there is in the dollar and in paper money in general -- the real question is how willing are knowledgeable investors and US creditors to hold dollars? Call it "escape from the dollar," call it "diversification," call it anything you want, but money is starting to flow into gold.

I'm going to revise my thinking on the phase gold is in. I've stated that gold is still in its first psychological phase. I've revised my thinking on that. Often the first and second phase of a bull market is divided by a severe correction. I believe that the July 2004 correction was the correction that ended the first psychological phase of gold, and that we are now in the second psychological phase.

The second phase of a bull market is usually the longest (in duration) phase. It's in the second phase that the public begins to be interested in an item. And it's in the second phase that the funds start to take their initial positions in an item. I believe we're at the start of the second phase in gold. The sharp July correction followed by a second correction in August -- these two corrections, served, I believe, to knock out late-comers and "in-and-out traders" and solidify the technical position in gold. Only the "believers" held on, and in many cases bought more.

All of which takes us to the second psychological phase of gold.

Let the second phase begin.

more follows for subscribers . . .

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
© Copyright 2004 Dow Theory Letters, Inc.

Richard Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business

# All,

Wußtet Ihr

daß die "stabilste Währung der Welt". die Deutsche Mark ( 1949/50)
zum Zeitpunkt ihrer Ablösung durch den Euro und er Politik ( Kohl) nur noch 5% ihrer ursprünglichen Kaufkraft hatte?

daß es im 20 Jahrhundert 25 Hyperinflationen ( mit Inflationsraten von mehr als 50% im Monat) gegeben hat?

daß die deutschen Staatsschulden rund 8 Millionen Euro Zinsen in der Stunde verursachen?

daß die Gesamtschulden der USA mit 36 Billionen Dollar ( Anfang 2004) höher als das gesamte Welt-Sozialprodukt in Höhe von rund 32 Billionen Dollar?

daß die amerikanischen Staatsschulden um fast zwei Milliarden Dollar (= zweitausend Millionen Dollar) täglich anwächst?

daß der Dollar seit 1971 ( Nixons Aufhebung Gold- zum Dollar) also das Goldfenster schloß 80% seiner kaufkraft verloren hat?

daß alleine die Neuverschuldung der USA ( 2004) 70% derWeltersparnisse auffrißt?

daß in Deutschland im Inflationsjahr 1924 ein Laib Brot eine Billion Mark gekostet hat
(eine Billion= eine Million Millionen)?

daß sich das Volumen der Güterproduktion der Industrieländer den letzten 30 Jahren vervierfachte- das Geld und Kreditvoloumen aber
vervierzigfachte?

Wenn man dies liest sollte man so wie Thaiguru immer schrieb

GOLD und SILBER STRONG BUY in Hinblick auf Reserven fürs Alter!
Denn nur Gold ist Geld!!!
gruß hpoth

hpopth
der text aus deinem beitrag kommt mir sehr bekannt vor...
na, haste dir wohl auch das neue buch besorgt??
"geld, gold, gottspieler - am vorabend einer weltwirtschaftskrise"
tolles buch, endlich mal wieder ein wirtschaftskrimi bei dem einem ein kalter schauer über den rücken läuft...

mfg kevincito

# Kevincito,

Natürlich, hatte das Buch schon einmal hier erwähnt, kenne ihn persönlich, ist super ähnlich wie F.Lips mit seinem Goldverschwörung.
Aber man soll nicht nur darüber nachdenken sondern auch handeln, ganz besonders für später, nur Gold ist Geld wie Lips sagt!!!

gruß hpoth

PS: habe das Buch von Herrn Bandulet geschenkt bekommen heute!!!

Zitat

Original von hpopth

daß alleine die Neuverschuldung der USA ( 2004) 70% derWeltersparnisse auffrißt?

Das ist ja heftig.
WEnn gilt S=I, dann können die anderen Länder ja nur noch 30% der Weltersparnisse investieren, oder habe ich da nen Denkfehler?

# silber 13

hier das Gewünschte: ISBN 3-935197-30-6
Verlag Resch
Autor Roland Baader
Geld, Gold und Gottspiler
Am Vorabend der nächsten Weltwirtschaftskrise

good luck

#LordExcalibur,

Nein Du machst keinen Fehler! Leider fressen die Amis alles und am Ende macht uns der Dollar alle platt.Die Asiaten merken das schon solangsam, sind eben etwas klüger als die Wessis im doppelten Sinn.

gruß hpoth

Auszug:

Die physische Nachfrage [nach Gold] hat sich gestern deutlich belebt und bescherte pro aurum eines der höchsten Umsatzvolumina der noch jungen Unternehmensgeschichte. Gesucht waren vor allem Goldmünzen 1 Unze Krügerrand und Maple Leaf. Umsatzrenner bei den Goldbarren waren die Gewichtseinheiten 50 Gramm und 100 Gramm.

Dem Silber erging es nicht besser als dem Gold. Nachdem in Europa am frühen Morgen noch Preise über 7,60 US$ pro Feinunze bezahlt wurden, schwächte sich das weiße Metall im Tagesverlauf deutlich ab. Die Gründe hierbei waren die gleichen, die auch für den Preisrückgang bei Gold verantwortlich waren. Zudem zeigt die neue Statistik der offenen Kontrakte an der Futuresbörse Comex, wie „fondsgetrieben“ die Kursbewegungen der vergangenen Wochen waren. So legte die Longposition der spekulativ orientierten Fonds in der Woche zum 9.November nochmals um 6.974 auf nunmehr 68.107 Kontrakte zu. Somit sitzen die Fonds auf über 340 Mio. Unzen oder umgerechnet 10.592 Tonnen Silber. Nicht auszudenken was passiert, wenn einige Fondsmanager die Nerven verlieren und auf den Verkaufsknopf drücken! Wir haben unsere Bestände angesichts dieser Zahlen weiter abgebaut und beobachten den Markt intensiv. Das Interesse unserer Kunden beschränkte sich auf Silberbarren 1000 Gramm und 5000 Gramm. Der Optimismus der Privatanleger ist nach wie vor ungebrochen. Langfristig sind wir ebenfalls von einer „goldenen Zukunft“ dieses Metalls überzeugt. Kurskorrekturen Richtung 7 US$ pro Feinunze nutzen wir daher zu Rückkäufen.

Ist die Verdummung schon überall???????????

Pro Aurum......welch ein Euphemismus..........vertickert Gold an Idioten und wartet im gleichen Absatz auf tiefere Kurse zum Einstieg...........das nenne ich perfekte Verarsche.

Also, wenn ich das richtig lese, bezog sich das Warten auf tiefere Kurse auf das Silber.

Davon mal abgesehen: Grundsätzlich ist es ja begrüßenswert, daß es mit Pro Aurum ein Unternehmen gibt, das dem interessierten Privatanleger die Möglichkeit des phys. Kaufs offeriert und damit eine Alternative zu Banken darstellt.
Die Kommentare zum Geschehen an den Märkten würde ich aber nicht überbewerten. Denke, man möchte sich hier betont professionell geben.

Pro Aurum ist ein ganz "normaler" Händler, der von der Spanne zwischen ihrem Einkaufspreis und dem später realisierten Verkaufspreis lebt und sich, wie jeder Kaufmann, immer fragen muß, wieviel Ware er sich auf Lager legt. Wo ist das Problem ???
Im Prinzip kann es Pro Aurum ganz egal sein, wo der PReis von Gold
und Silber steht, solange es a) Käufer gibt und b) die Gewinnspanne
ausreichend groß ist...

Und was ist daran schlimm, wenn jemand , der Gold+Silber verkauft,
offen auch einmal schreibt, daß er persönlich zB kurzfristig mit
Rückschlägen rechnet ?

Das ist mir 1000mal lieber als ein Weigl, der nichts anderes kann, als
bullish für Silber zu sein, um sein Papiersilber an den Mann oder die
Frau zu bringen.

Spieler

PS: "vertickert Gold an Idioten" ? Da möchte ich gerne mal nachhaken :
Physischer Goldkauf ? - Nur für Idioten ?
Ausnahmsweise schade, daß Thaiguru hier nicht mitliest, das wäre
sicherlich wieder ein ganz wunderbarer "Dialog" geworden - lol...

ein interessanter Artikel (mit den bekannten Argumenten), warum der Silberkurs sich um ein mehrfaches besser als der Goldkurs entwickeln wird:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/stein111604.html

November 16 – Gold $439.80 up $3.30 – Silver $7.55 up 2 cents

Likelihood Of Gold/Silver Commercial Signal Failure Continues To Increase

"For the average American, freedom of speech is simply the freedom to repeat what everyone else is saying, and no more." - Gore Vidal

Gold showed early strength, then sold off when the dollar caught some bids. However, when the euro stopped going down, gold turned right around and shot back up. As the euro gained ground, it then propelled gold even higher. Buying by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley took out staunch resistance at $440.

A new 16-year high London Fix of $439.40 is an indication of how firm the spot market is (see JB below again on this one).

If there ever was a day for gold to rocket, it was today – what with an astoundingly high US Producer Price Index, the Fannie Mae scandal growing and Iraq a mess.

Gold huffed and puffed. The Gold Cartel made sure it didn't finish above $440 on the bell, taking it down with some tape painting.

The gold open interest fell 414 contracts to 346,795 and the silver open interest dropped 173 contracts to 122,865. What is remarkable is how sizeable the December contracts are in both precious metals. For gold the DEC is 245,173, down only 2734 contracts. For silver it is 84,525, down 1630 contracts. The big silver shorts are rolling their positions into FEB with the biggest of all, Morgan Stanley, continuing to sell as the price rises.

It is extraordinary how gold and silver could trade like they have for months and fail to generate market excitement out of investors in the public sector:

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4

December silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C4

The Café Sentiment Indicator is a 5 at best.

Gold is grinding its way up. The Gold Cartel is hard at work doing what they can to contain the market and keep upside volatility to a minimum. It was that stunning price rise after the Washington Agreement was announced on September 26, 1999 which almost did in a number of the dealers. The volatility numbers blew out to the upside, wreaking havoc with the black box option models. Margin calls went through the roof. This was the reason the $6 Rule was implemented by the crooks.

The question is, “What is this leading to?” For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. So what will the reaction be to this cabal containment policy? My bet is that it is leading to a price explosion in which they lose control of the gold market, at least temporarily.

How can this occur with such powerful people doing so much to stop it from happening? THE CASH MARKET does them in, that’s what. More and more of the big players around the world are competing for cheap gold. This is why the Indian premiums have been so firm all the way up. Demand is so stout in India, the local dealers must go into the international market to satisfy that demand.

Gold is trading as if something grandiose is in the works. When a market continues to make 16-year highs like gold has, we should be seeing it trade in a volatile fashion with wide daily trading swings. Not happening yet because of the capping. However, big money around the world may have set a trap for The Gold Cartel.

We have a DEC option expiry a week from today. There are 12,000 440 calls outstanding and 18,000 450 calls outstanding. Add the enormous December gold open interest to the calls numbers and you have the potential for some serious fireworks on the upside as we sail towards the month of December – especially with so many traders short-term bearish. Our STALKER source said even his London sources are short-term bearish.

On that note our Comex floor sources said the specs were piling in today and the open interest could rise another 5,000 contracts tomorrow and even the DEC contract could go up. Once again, this would be HIGHLY unusual so late in the contract trading period.

One other point to be aware of which could send the gold price soaring very soon. Many of those calls at $440 and $450 are delta hedged and were put on at FAR lower prices, say at $400 or less. Delta hedged means that the seller of the calls might only cover 5% of his exposure when the call was written. As the price rises, the option sellers need to buy more and more gold in case their trades go in the money. Should we start moving any higher from here, the sellers of the $450 calls will be there aggressively on the buy side, which will increase the upside momentum and the pressure on the shorts to cover.

We have the potential for some serious fireworks to the upside for both gold and silver in the days and weeks ahead. Each session gold trades like it has been leads me to believe our precious metals Commercial Signal Failure is right around the corner.

After the close, we learned the Comex warehouse silver stocks fell 604,760 ounces to make a new low of 101,577,955. Silver struggled today. However, with these stocks dropping like they are, the nervousness of the shorts has to be on the rise. We are due for the day when silver streaks to the upside.

The dollar dropped .18 to 83.87. The euro gained .15 to 129.58, while the yen closed at 105.39 and very close to the psychologically important 105 level.

Crude oil fell 76 cents to $46.11.

The John Brimelow Report

$500 by Christmas?

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.76, PM $6.77, with world gold at $436.15 and $437.55. Ample, and adequate, for legal imports. The rupee closed at a 5-month high, despite being forced down at the close by Central Bank intervention. Intraday, it traded appreciably more strongly than the levels used in these calculations. India returned as a solid buyer of world gold today, with the rupee buoyed by relief over oil’s decline, and heavy inflows of foreign portfolio investment funds – the Bombay stock exchange closed at a nine-month high this afternoon. There seems no immediate reason for this pattern to change.

The fact that the world’s largest buyer of bullion is a ready importer at the current world price is of course more important than how much more gold it would have bought if prices were lower - which tends to be what Indian sources like to discuss. Nevertheless, it is true that if the much-heralded decline in world gold does occur, the Indians will be there to stop it.

TOCOM gold continued quiet, trading only the equivalent of 14,958 Comex (+2%), in dollar volume some 25% less than platinum. But apparently the "general public" was a modest buyer: the Mitsubishi data implies an accumulation of 2.6 tonnes, about 835 Comex lots. The active contract closed down 4 yen, and world gold went out 45c below NY. (NY yesterday traded 58,372 contracts, once again exceeding the Comex estimate by a startling proportion, in this case 36%. Open interest was static – down 283 lots.)

An ECB captive Central Bank apparently sold about 1.6 tonnes of gold last week – the previous week’s 14.5 tonne sale has not started a pattern so far. Interestingly, the Shanghai Gold Exchange discounts have contracted to only 75c to $1 or so compared to three times that level when gold was $4 lower last week.

With most of the world’s key physical buying markets closed yesterday, gold’s liveliness early in the day was somewhat surprising: the response in NY was not. UBS says:

"Gold traded to a fresh 16-year high of $440/oz during European hours yesterday but could not make further gains in US trading. The metal opened at its US session highs of $439.40 / 80 under pressure from early speculative selling. Noted selling around the $438.50 level from one European bank, together with US bank selling on the Comex floor pushed the market lower and gold fell to $436.10 / 60 where decent two-way flows were seen."

(ScotiaMocatta refers to "good support from overseas sources" at the low.)

As the Comex volume estimate "mistake" indicates, this capping effort had to be quite forceful: and the same has continued today, with gold trading sideway from 10am just above $440, and volume heavy at an estimated 75,000 for the day.

Meantime, the news channels are crowded with stories predicting an imminent gold price relapse: Dow Jones carried two quite different ones:

DJ Asia Precious Metals: Gold Correction Likely, Desirable
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)
And

DJ FOCUS: Spot Gold May Fall Toward $430 If NY Gold Fund Fails

Both laying heavy emphasis on the possibility of an undertow after the NY gold ETF launches. This appears to be the main hope of the bears – or at least, the bearish analysts.

Disconcertingly for this community, the CFTC data gave them less encouragement than expected. UBS is not even sure subsequent developments created a record long:

"Net long position stood at 21.2Moz as of last Tuesday, up 1.8Moz after gross longs increased by 1.95Moz and gross shorts were up 0.2Moz. We estimate that the net long position has increased by a further 1-3 million ounces since then to stand at about 22-24Moz now and close to or at the all-time high." (JB emphasis)

Rothschild identifies the reason:

"the short position which rose by half a million ounces to a little under 7 million ounces. The size of the short position is a clear indication that not everyone is convinced that gold will continue to rise. The short position is now as large as it was in April 2001 when gold was at US$257."
(JB emphasis – April 2001 was the second double bottom.)

In other words the CFTC data is much more bull-friendly than anticipated.

In every bull move since the spring 2001 bottom, the Indians have eventually backed out, usually $20-$30 before the ultimate peak. That they have not this time strongly suggests there is further to go.

But what really suggests there is further to go is the appointment of Condoleeza Rice as Secretary of State. Rightly or wrongly, this is certain to be seen by much of the world, particularly the Arabs, as the installation of a neoconservative puppet and a guarantee of more extensive US/Muslim conflict. Those with the stomach should read

http://www.antiwar.com/lobe/?articleid=3986

It was the injection of geopolitical stress into an already favourable situation which triggered the memorable late ’79 market.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW finally gave up some ground, dropping 63 to 10,488, while the DOG lost 15 to 2079.

A heads-up from Jessie on the DOW:

I have a friend who believes that the big banks are 'signaling' to each other their intended price support levels for the major equity indices. He thinks he caught a signal that there is a 'put' under the Dow at 10,500 as of yesterday. Companies do signal pricing policy changes to each other, this I know first hand. Would the banks do something similar? It would be easy, and now that they are punters it might make sense to keep each other 'informed.'

Well, we dropped to 10,500 on the session lows. Let see what happens. This market is SO overbought and overdue for a 6 percent correction that I would be a believer that this is a conscious reflation involving the banks and not such a liquidity policy mistake if it holds up today.

Personally I think it was a 'mistake' (error on the side of recklessness) based on what I have written already, but I am keeping an open mind.

-END-

08:30 Oct. PPI reported 1.7% vs. consensus 0.6%; ex-Food & Energy reported 0.3% vs. consensus 0.1%
Prior total PPI unrevisedat 0.1%; ex-Food & Energy unrevised at 0.3%.
* * * * *

WASHINGTON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices shot up 1.7 percent last month, the biggest gain in nearly 15 years and well above expectations, as energy costs skyrocketed and food prices surged, a government report showed on Tuesday.

Even outside of food and energy, producer prices climbed a relatively swift 0.3 percent in October, the Labor Department said, well ahead of the 0.1 percent gain Wall Street had expected.

The increase in the overall Producer Price Index, a gauge of prices received by farms, factories and refineries, was the largest since January 1990 and easily outstripped expectations for a 0.5 percent gain….

09:00 Foreigners' Sept. U.S.-asset holdings reported $63.4B
Prior reading revised to $59.9B from $59B.

– END-

US net capital inflows $63.4 bln, above forecasts

WASHINGTON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Foreign investment in U.S. assets edged higher in September and was ample to cover the monthly current account deficit, according to a Treasury Department report on Tuesday.

Net inflows of capital totaled $63.4 billion in September, after an upwardly revised $59.9 billion in August, the Treasury's International Capital report said.

Purchases of net domestic securities, a narrower measure that excludes transactions between U.S. residents and foreigners in foreign stocks and bonds, also rose to $61.0 billion in September from $60.2 billion in August.

Foreigners were net sellers of U.S. stocks in September for a second straight month, according to the report. They sold a net $3.8 billion in equities in September after selling a net $2.1 billion in August.

Foreign appetite for U.S. government bonds and notes increased in the month. Foreigners bought a net $19.2 billion in September, up from $14.6 billion in August.

The report, informally known as the TIC data series, showed a higher-than-forecast level of foreign interest in U.S. assets. Analysts had expected the September data to show foreign inflows in the range of $50 billion to $60 billion, though some forecasts were half that.

Market participants watch the TIC data as a measure of foreigners' appetite for U.S. assets, and is of interest to the currency market amid concerns about the American current account deficit. The September U.S. trade gap was $51.6 billion.

-END-