Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Gold hat noch Potenzial- aber die Dollarschwäche bleibt bestimmend!

Der auf kurze Sicht dominierende Faktor bleibt die Dollarschwäche..Eine schwächerer Währung käme der amerikanische Wirtschaft jetzt zugute, und der Greenback dürfte tatsächlich auch weiter nachgeben. Der Goldpreis wird dardurch gestärkt.Das nächste Kursziel sidn 450$ /Unze.Sollte die US Währung wieder erwarten zulegen, wird das Gold auf 442 und 438/Unze Unterstützung finden. Wegen des Liquiditäsmangels gegen Jahresende sind ausgeprägte Schwankungen zu erwarten.

gruß hpoth

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund_rotfl.gif]

Clive Maund
22 November, 2004

Aus der FTD vom 23.11.2004 http://www.ftd.de/zeise
Kolumne: Diplomatisches Meisterstück

Europa erlässt dem Irak Schulden und bekommt dafür wahre Aussagen über den Dollar.

Deutlicher kann man als Notenbanker nicht sein. Alan Greenspan hat am Freitag gesagt, dass der Dollar wegen des hohen Leistungsbilanzdefizits der USA weiter abwerten muss. Er hat außerdem klar gemacht, dass er die negativen Wirkungen des Dollar-Verfalls auf die Zinsen in den USA und die Finanzierbarkeit des Haushaltsdefizits in Washington kennt und dennoch nichts gegen diese Entwicklung zu tun gedenkt.

Das muss auch den Letzten überzeugen, dass die US-Regierung und ihre Notenbank sich mit dem Verfall des Dollar abgefunden haben. Die Hoffnungen der Europäer, den Amerikanern könne die Minderung der Rolle des Dollar als Reservewährung und damit die Verschlechterung ihres Standings so schmerzhaft erscheinen, dass sie sich lieber mit den Partnern auf eine Stabilisierung ihrer Währung einlassen, diese Hoffnungen haben getrogen.

Präsident George W. Bush, sein Finanzminister John Snow und Greenspan richten sich auf weniger freundliche Zeiten ein. Steigende Zinsen seien nun so lange und oft angekündigt worden, sagte Greenspan am vergangenen Freitag, dass "jeder, der bis jetzt seine Positionen nicht angemessen abgesichert hat, offensichtlich einfach Geld verlieren will".

Tatsächlich sind in der jüngsten Phase der Dollar-Schwäche die Marktzinsen in den USA gestiegen, während die Renditen der in Euro denominierten Bundesanleihen noch leicht zurückgegangen sind. Im Klartext heißt das, dass US-Regierung und Notenbank bereit sind, etwas schlechtere Finanzierungsbedingungen für Banken, Unternehmen und Verbraucher zuzulassen.

In den USA restriktiver

Das ist neu. Die Welt hatte sich daran gewöhnt, dass die US-Notenbank eine möglichst leichte, um nicht zu sagen stimulierende Geldpolitik verfolgt. Das, was Greenspan nun angekündigt hat, ist ein Politikschwenk. Es ist der Schwenk in eine Richtung, wie sie die europäischen Notenbanker und viele Politiker immer verlangt haben.

Zum Beispiel unser Bundeskanzler. Gerhard Schröder ließ sich anlässlich des G20-Treffens am Wochenende, bei dem er und Finanzminister Hans Eichel Gastgeber in Berlin waren, mit Ratschlägen an die amerikanische Adresse vernehmen. Der schwache Dollar sei "eindeutig" auf das hohe Defizit im Staatsetat und in der Leistungsbilanz zurückzuführen. Aus Schröders Mund klingt diese Analyse besonders eigenartig. Um zu überzeugen, müsste er zumindest andeuten, warum das ebenso hohe Defizit in den Staatshaushalten der großen EU-Länder wie Deutschland keinen schwachen Euro zur Folge hat.

Es steht Schröder nicht, wenn er den Amerikanern Tugenden predigt, die er selbst nicht beherzigt. Die offensichtliche Scheinheiligkeit solcher Äußerungen bestärkt des Bürgers Ahnung, dass ihm argumentativ Sand in die Augen gestreut werden soll. Tatsächlich wollen die Berliner Politiker vor allem vermeiden, dass amerikanische Forderungen nach mehr Wachstum oder Wachstum fördernden Maßnahmen in Europa erhoben werden. Beim Treffen der G20 haben sie das erreicht. Sie haben - ein diplomatisches Meisterstück! - es sogar fertig gebracht, dass die Forderung nach einem höheren Beitrag Europas zum Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft im Kommuniqué des Treffens nicht erscheint, ja von der US-Delegation gar nicht erst erhoben wurde.

Umgänglicher John Snow

US-Finanzminister John Snow sei überhaupt sehr umgänglich gewesen, fanden die Konferenzteilnehmer aus dem Berliner Finanzministerium. Sie meinten damit, dass Snow angenehm undeutlich geblieben sei, ganz anders als Greenspan, der sich so undiplomatisch und ehrlich über die trübe Zukunft des Dollar habe verbreiten müssen. Snow sei es eben wichtiger gewesen, ein schönes Verhandlungsergebnis zu den Irak-Schulden mit nach Hause nehmen zu können. Nachdem das gesichert war, habe er in den eher deklaratorischen Währungsfragen milde und nachgiebig agiert.

So hat offensichtlich jede Seite ihre Prioritäten. Die Amerikaner wollten vor allem die Schuldenlast ihres Protektorats im Zweistromland und damit die eigenen Kosten des Irak-Krieges verringert wissen. Sie haben das erreicht. Die Euro-Europäer, diesmal unter der kompetenten Führung der Deutschen, wollten erreichen, dass die USA den Dollar-Verfall als amerikanisches Problem anerkennen. Auch das wurde erreicht. Alan Greenspan, die ehrliche Haut, hat die hohe Verschuldung der USA im Ausland, die wiederum Folge der jahrelang kumulierten Defizite in der Leistungsbilanz ist, als Ursache für die Dollar-Schwäche anerkannt. Er hat auch auf die Konsequenzen für die USA hingewiesen und, weil er schon dabei war, klar gemacht, dass er von Interventionen zur Stützung der US-Währung nichts hält.

So hat die europäische Seite als Verhandlungsergebnis dieser G20-Runde zwei Dinge erhalten: erstens ein Stückchen der Wahrheit, die uns allen schon schwante. Der Dollar wird fallen. Amerika toleriert den Fall der eigenen Währung, ist sogar bereit, die negativen Konsequenzen in Form steigender Zinsen zu ertragen. Zweitens wurden die verantwortlichen Regierungen und ihre Notenbank EZB nicht mit Forderungen belästigt, die stagnative Konjunktur zu stimulieren. Forderungen dieser Art kommen wahrscheinlich ohnehin aus dem Inland noch auf sie zu, wenn der starke Euro den bisher schon kümmerlichen Aufschwung ganz abgewürgt hat.

Lucas Zeise ist Finanzkolumnist der FTD.
http://www.ftd.de/pw/in/1100939998707.html?nv=skyx

Ich finde es einen gewaltigen Skandal, was hier mit dem Schuldenerlaß vom Irak wieder passiert ist. Für mein Dafürhalten hätte man dem Irak auch die Schulden einstweilen für ein paar Jahre stunden können.

Man muß sich nur mal das Szenario in ein paar Jahren ansehen. Der Ölpreis steigt weiter, die Knappheit nimmt eher noch zu und im Irak kehrt wieder Normalität zurück, so dass das Öl wieder normal produziert wird. Dann sitzt Irak auf einer der größten Ölreserven, die es in der Welt momentan gibt und sie verdienen hervorragend.

Übrigens, Russland wollte/hat man doch auch die Schulden erlassen, oder ? Und jetzt schwimmen sie allmählich in Geld, bauen ihre Devisen-/Goldreserven immer weiter aus und denken daran, ihre Schulden vorzeitig zurückzuzahlen.

Wie bescheuert müssen denn unsere regierenden Politiker sein, wenn sie nicht einmal einfachste Zusammenhänge erkennen ?

Gruß

Silbertaler

de eichel hat ja vor ein paar monaten noch gesagt man würde dem irak die schulden nicht erlassen und hat dabei das beispiel russland angeführt. damals haben auch alle gesagt, ach die russen können das niemals zurückzahlen, und jetzt siehts anders aus.
mich wundert nur dass die amis unsern eichel weichgekloppt haben.
vielleicht rechnet von denen niemand mehr mit einer echten befriedung des irak?

mfg kevincito

Ich denke, Eichel ist ein Hanswurst, der nichts mehr zu sagen hat. Hinter dem Schuldenerlaß steckt Schröder, der sich Liebkind bei den Amis machen möchte.

--------------
Nachdem die Franzosen Goldbestände verkaufen, vermute ich, daß sich die Buba anschließen wird. Der Finanzminister braucht die Erlöse dringend, wie sich an seinen unseriösen Haushaltsvorschlägen erkennen läßt.

Dow Jones/vwd
Buba/Weber: Entscheidung über Gold-Verkaufsoption bis Ende 2004
Montag 22. November 2004, 16:28 Uhr

BERLIN (Dow Jones-VWD)--Die Deutsche Bundesbank hat bisher noch nicht darüber entschieden, ob sie ihre Option für den Verkauf von Gold ausüben wird. Diese Entscheidung solle allerdings bis zum Ende des Jahres 2004 getroffen werden, sagte der Präsident der Deutschen Bundesbank, Axel Weber, dem Verein der ausländischen Presse (VAP) am Montag. "Wir haben über die Ausübung dieser Option noch nicht entschieden, werden dies aber bis zum Ende des Jahres tun", sagte er. Die Bundesbank verfügt über rund 3.500 t Gold. Mit Rücksicht auf den Goldmarkt hatte sie sich mit 14 weiteren europäischen Zentralbanken dazu verpflichtet, über einen Zeitraum von fünf Jahren nicht mehr als 500 t pro Jahr zu verkaufen. (ENDE) Dow Jones Newswires/22.11.2004/ms/hab

oder sie ahnen, dass der aufschwung am seidenen faden hängt und sie wissen um eine unbedingte entlastung des amerikanischen haushaltes.
durch den schuldenerlass ist der zusammenbruch des auf dollar gestützten westlichen finanzsystems vielleicht um ein paar monate hinausgezögert worden, wenns schnell geht vielleicht von 2006 auf 2007.
bis 2010 ist der kuchen jedenfalls gegessen. dann steht gold bei 3000 dollar und für eine flasche bier zahlt man 10 euro.

November 22 – Gold $448.50 up $2.10 – Silver $7.55 down 2 cents

Gold Grinds Its Way To New 16-Year Highs

"The public have an insatiable curiosity to know everything, except what is worth knowing. Journalism, conscious of this, and having tradesman-like habits, supplies their demands." Oscar Wilde

A whole lot of important material to cover today as we head into this US holiday shortened week.

The most significant was the astonishing recaps of the G-20 meeting this weekend. Can’t recall a more blunt and troubling assessment coming from the official sector as far as the financial markets are concerned – an extremely dollar bearish assessment with extraordinary ramifications. What is stunning to me is to read the analysis of the meeting after what Fed Chairman Greenspan said on Friday. Back to back commentary as this should have sent the dollar into the toilet and gold soaring today.

Yet, the initial response Sunday evening and early Monday was as muted as could be. The only explanation I can figure is the central banks were fully prepared for what was to come out and put the dollar/gold market in a short-term lockdown. The US wants to keep market participants guessing and keep any sort of dollar dumping panic from developing.

No need to repeat the statements and pundit comments as they are in the two Reuters columns at the Hemingway Table. The bottom line is the dollar is going much lower and gold much higher. It is only a matter of time.

Oh, here’s the reason for the market’s muted response to the extraordinarily bearish dollar commentary – Charlie McCarthy’s cousin spoke out:

Bush Committed to `Strong Dollar,' Cutting Deficit

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush said he is committed to a ``strong dollar'' and cutting the U.S. government budget deficit.

``My nation is committed to a strong dollar,'' Bush said after a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at the start of a two-day economic summit of Pacific Rim nations in Santiago, Chile. ``I assured him that in the context of working with Congress we will reduce our short-term and long-term deficit.''

-END-

This sort of rhetoric is beyond mind-boggling, beyond any sort of rationality. The dollar is plummeting, Greenspan bashes it and nothing was presented at the visible G-20 meeting in France to counter the bearishness. Yet, the President feebly talks about favoring a strong dollar. Sure, this is for public consumption. However, whatever happened to the notion credibility is an important quality in leadership?

Oh well, if investors want to be sucked in, let them be.

The PM Fix was $447.80, a new 16-year high, signifying strong physical market demand.

What I also find incredibly striking is the growing lack of gold bullish sentiment as the price continues to rise. MIDAS has documented this for weeks, even months. The amount of short-term bearishness at the New Orleans Investment Conference was pronounced with short-term bears far outnumbering bulls. Gold has rallied $12/$14 since then.

Those fleeing the long side of the gold market continues to increase. John Brimelow points out the following from Dennis Gartman:

"With the dollar now rather extended in one direction following Mr. Greenspan's comments of last Friday, we think once again that the room is getting rather crowded and far too one sided for our liking. We think it is reasonable again to cut our exposure to gold, and we shall again suggest writing calls against the gold shares we own, sufficiently large enough to cut our exposure by half. We shall recommend doing so as soon as is practicable after receipt of this commentary."

There may be a lot of company in the dollar bear camp, however, not so in gold AT ALL.

They are bolting from gold like fleas:

The Daily Reckoning Weekend Edition
November 20-21, 2004
Baltimore, Maryland
By Addison Wiggin and Tom Dyson

,,,and traders agreed. Your Baltimore-based junior editor did not...

On Friday, we started buying dollars in the futures markets, and selling gold.

-END-

The gold open interest rose 4178 contracts to 365,154 with the DEC falling 13,537 to 213,380. What is left in December is enormous; however, today there is a great deal of rollover switching going on.

The silver open interest fell 371 contracts to 125,494 with the DEC contract losing 6436 to 71,619. Silver continues to act poorly. Have no clue why.

DEC options go off the board tomorrow after the close. How will the DEC 450s end up? If we gap open tomorrow, this could produce some fireworks during the Comex trading session. Heaven knows how large the DEC 450 call positions are in the over the counter market.

One of the Morgan Stanley offices in the Southwest fears a dollar collapse, a stock market meltdown and is looking for $500 gold. They have exited their stock positions in the general market.

Gold is breaking out in foreign currency terms. Gold in euros reached 343.60 in August and 343.80 in February. It closed today around 344, taking out its double top to the upside. This is bad news for the heinous Gold Cartel. Gold fever should start kicking in all over the world.

The chart pattern still suggests an acceleration ahead:

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4

Just heard from my STALKER source. Three points to bring to your attention:

*The bullion market is quite hot now in the US.
*His London bullion dealer was looking for a $15 to $18 price correction last week, then off to the races. Sort of like most everyone else. Not so sure about the correction anymore. Odds dropped to 50-50 according to this English source.
*Talk in the gold world in Europe is that Greenspan might be bailing out some day relatively soon – doesn’t want to preside over the inevitable dollar debacle.

For the second day in a row the new gold ETF closed at a premium to spot at 44.97. $450 gold beckons.

Gold should have exploded today. Instead we ended up with one of the quietest sessions in some time. Quiet before the storm? I think so. Something dramatic ought to take gold sharply higher in the very near future.

John Brimelow Report

India buys. Important J Turk questions

Monday, November 22, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.45, PM $8.06 Lavish for legal imports. This is basis Bombay, but the other importing cities display similar results. The rupee hit a 5 ½ month high today. Forcing world gold down from here will require delivering to the world’s largest consumer of physical a great deal of metal.

With Comex closed on Thursday and Friday, dealers will have the interesting problem of accommodating ongoing Indian retail demand without the offsetting presence of what has probably been the major source of liquidity and supply in the bullion world. Conventional wisdom calls of quiet weakness at the end of this week: the reverse is more likely.

Japan is closed tomorrow and TOCOM was comatose today. Only the equivalent of 11,100 Comex lots traded (-5%), with world gold up 10c from NY and the active contract up 2 yen. Open interest was static (+32 Comex). Although a firm $US gold price is helpful, the muscularity of the yen at present discourages yen gold futures buying. Perhaps the different physical market is displaying another pattern. (NY on Friday traded 112,608 lots, with open interest rising 4,179 (13 tonnes) contracts to a new record of 365,155.

While the advent of the ETF makes analyzing the Comex data a new business, it is clear that substantial demand is present in NY – being met by substantial supply. As usual.

The CFTC data surprised some by not showing a towering new spec long (although it was a record). This was because of the expansion of a considerable spec short position. Opinion is divided as to how positive this is – UBS feels the short may have been curtailed after the Tuesday reporting cut off – but it is fair to say that this aspect of the gold market is more Bull-friendly than most expected.

James Turk’s incisive argument to the effect that the operators of the ETF have been favored by the SEC and are not absolutely bound to back the instrument with bullion is posted at

http://news.goldseek.com/JamesTurk/1101100282.php.

It is imperative reading for all serious students of the gold market. An effective refutation by the proprietors is essential. Threats of a lawsuit, the tactic amazingly tried during the first iteration of this vehicle, do not count.

While much of the demand for the ETF is thought to have been incremental, the stage is set for much disappointment if ostensible heavy buying does not cause much price response. So their questions are highly relevant.

With charming symmetry after the French stories of Friday, the Bundesbank started muttering about selling gold this morning. As before, only the news that sales will not be in accord with Washington Accord #2 would mean anything, but it seems incontrovertible that gold has got the attention of the Central Banking fraternity.

Dennis Garman of The Gartman Letter, in his role as a Wall Street echo chamber, proposes to reduce his model portfolio gold exposure, moaning about the trade being "crowded". This of course reflects the sluggishness of the gold shares on Friday, and probably means some more days of frustration for those friends of gold who focus on the equities.

JB

The end of Bretton Woods II is near
Commentary: The problem is China, not the dollar

By John Brimelow
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov. 22, 2004

Editor's note: John Brimelow follows gold and international equities for Aegis Capital Corporation in New York. He is the brother of Peter Brimelow, a CBS MarketWatch columnist.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The bad news: the world is drifting into a major currency crisis like the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement and the subsequent inflationary upheavals of the 1970s. The good news: it can be handled -- if the market is allowed to work.

According to the deluge of commentary on the dollar, America has a balance of payments problem and the world has a dollar problem: a major dollar decline will have to be accommodated.

This is quite wrong. What everyone has is a massive Chinese undervaluation problem. Any exchange rate discussion that fails to start with this fact is fatuous.

In 1993, China fixed its currency, the yuan, at $1 = Y8.28.

Since then, capital and technology have poured into China. It has built up foreign exchange reserves more than ten-fold, to almost $500 billion, an expansion almost unmatched in history.

Yet the decline of the dollar in the past two years has effectively dragged down the pegged yuan another 35 percent against the major currencies -- exactly the reverse of what should have happened, given China's exporting success.

"Economic Miracles" like China's are actually not unprecedented. Germany had one in the 1950s. But accommodating "Economic Miracles" in a fixed exchange rate system invariably causes problems. This is what eventually destroyed the Bretton Woods system of fixed rates, negotiated after World War II that lasted almost 30 years.

China has been allowed to operate on a covert Bretton Woods system since 1993. By keeping its currency artificially low, it has been practicing "exchange rate mercantilism" -- concentrating productive capacity in its own hands to the detriment of the world economy (and ultimately its own consumers).

It is time to recognize that this must be ended.

Otherwise, any decline in the U.S. dollar simply gives further advantages to Chinese exports. This is now causing serious problems for other countries, particularly in the Third World.

Under the various types of gold standard, of course, this distortion could not have happened. The huge inflow of resources would have inflated the Chinese economy and eroded its competitive advantage.

Under Bretton Woods, distortion didn't happen either. When a "fundamental disequilibrium" developed, vigilant statesmen in the other counties took action to force adjustment.

Why this has not happened this time in the case of China is an interesting question.

Partly, it is because most economic theory in the English-speaking world developed under fixed rates. Furthermore, the English speaking countries did not generally practice predatory currency policies.

Some countries did, of course -- Japan spectacularly undervalued its way out of the 1930s slump. But they were minor cases, not on the policy radar screen.

My pet conspiracy theory: the Chinese have been extremely successful in co-opting elements of the American economic establishment.

The Treasury likes a reliable buyer of U.S. paper. So does Wall Street. Importers of Chinese goods are happy. American businessmen with plants in China resist change. Buyers of Chinese consumer goods do not complain. American diplomats dislike offending this powerful and notoriously touchy country.

But now, China's policy is harming countries, in Europe and elsewhere, where the leadership really cares about the overall national interest.

These foreign leaders will provide the political will that U.S. leaders have not. The Chinese perpetual motion machine will be confronted and contained.

The beneficiaries of the Chinese undervaluation free lunch had better prepare for change. That means importers and distributors of Chinese goods (think Wal-Mart (WMT: news, chart, profile)), sellers of paper (think U.S. Treasury) and anyone who likes stability (relative prices will shift -- possibly triggering inflation, depending on the Fed's reaction.)

The collapse of the Second Bretton Woods system will be sweeping and disruptive.

But ultimately it will be beneficial for the world at large -- and U.S. manufacturers in particular.

-END-

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

One would have thought with Greenspan predicting much higher US interest rates and the world predicting a much lower dollar, the US stock market would suffer somewhat. NOPE. The DOW rose 32 to 10,492, while the DOG gained 15 to 2085. Has me scratching my head.

The bond market makes no sense either. It closed at 113 11/32, up 20/32.

The euro only rose .21 to 130.46 and the dollar only dropped .09 to 83.23.

Speaking of Dennis Gartman, his comments on Iraq are astonishing. From his latest DGL:

"Our bet is that when the election is held, within weeks, the fighting will stop; the news will subside; Iraq will move from the front pages of the world's newspapers to the back pages; life in Baghdad will return to far more normal times and peace will break out all over."

???? What does he see that I don’t? We both must read different news reports of what is going on over there.

How many times have I commented gold is the worst reported on market in history and the least understood, in good part because of the disinformation put out by the bullion banks in The Gold Cartel. A gold article in the New Yorker which does not even make it to the drivel level:
http://newyorker.com/talk/content/?041129ta_talk_surowiecki

On the French gold sale announcement.... Will this be a new gold sale or does it represent gold already gone from the French central bank via past gold leases?

One Café member sees it this way:

Hi Bill:
There is no question that the French gold has already been leased when they announced their initial intention on May 2.04. That was when this tranche of gold entered. With a structural deficit of 1500-2000 tonnes of gold per year that gold has now been dissipated. The Dutch gold has also been leased as it came onto the market probably Sept-Nov 5 or so.

The announcement by the French was supposed to neutralize the devastating effects of Greenspan's speech concerning the plight of the dollar, the rise in long term interest rates and the huge structural problems facing the usa with their twin deficits. To the shock of Bush et al.. it failed and gold rose and paid no attention to the French announcement. They are burning the midnight oil this weekend!!!
Harvey

Rhody views the central bank gold issue like this:

You wondered if the Bank of England received Usds for its gold sales. Absoutely, the BOE sold it's gold to buy US dollars, and did so when gold was well under $300 and at a time when the US dollar was 30% bigger than it is now. They bought Treasuries that yielded 4% per year. Their "loss" is 32% on the decline of the dollar and about $150 per oz on the gold. Their gain is they held back the present gold bull by two years.

Let me be as clear about this as I can. Central banks do not hold gold as an investment but as ammunition to be used to sell down gold. Remember gold up means paper down. Since these entities exist to maintain the paper money system, gold is the "enemy" of the fiat money system. They hate it.

If a central bank is not actively selling gold, they may accumulate it, not as an investment, but as a future threat to sell. Heard that before haven't you? How often have we heard of central bank plans to sell gold as the price rises?

The answer is every time. The latest threat is from the French Central Bank. The US Treasury supposedly holds 261 Moz of gold. They say they will not sell it. Whether they still have it or not, this gold sits as a potent threat against any nation that tried to reconnect their currency system to gold by going back on the gold standard. While the US still has that gold, no nation would dare to do this because the US would dump its gold reserves and thereby trash the newly gold-linked currency. In this way, gold is a financial sector weapon of mass destruction and as with all such weapons, is most effective as a threat. When the US does use its gold weapon, we will be very close to the end of the world financial system.

The big question is, has the US already used up its gold weapon?
Regards Rhody.

Houston’s Dan Norcini on the weird bond action:

Hey Bill:
The bonds are beginning to trade more and more like gold only in the inverse Bill. Watching these things for as long as I have, there is rarely, if ever, any follow through on the downside in bonds just as there is rarely, if any, follow through on the upside in gold.

Huge up days in gold are never followed by another strong up day such as we normally see in freely traded markets like soybeans or cattle or hogs for instance - instead we see grinding action that only recently has slowly continued to the upside. In bonds, the downside is immediately thwarted and the price action then grinds slowly back to the upside.

Given the amazing bluntness and rare candor by Greenspan last Friday in regards to interest rates, to witness no follow through to the downside after the big sell off is very unusual from where I sit; especially given the continued weakness in the dollar and Grenspan's remarks that demand for Dollar paper assets would wane. Overnight bonds opened lower as could have been expected only to come into New York and move back up. I cannot tell whether bond traders are still conditioned like Pavlov's dogs to expect the BOJ to come in and pull the rug from under the yen and are doing the buying or the Fed is active along the long end of the yield curve.

All of this is very strange.

Jesse and I are both tracking the custodial accounts and they continue to increase to the point where they are currently sitting at $1.32 Trillion up from $1.29 Trillion only a month ago. That is an increase of some $30.45 Billion. That is one helluva lot of Treasury paper being purchased for foreign Central Banks.
The game continues........
Dan

The Belkhayate Letter on "The nuclear explosion of GOLD":

Hi Bill
The price of gold has surged 75% since July 1999, up from $254/oz to $446/pz. How come that this hike has gone unnoticed by the majority of operators on international markets especially heads of enterprises? Because this rise has been deliberately kept secret by the financial authorities I have talked about in my latest papers. This hide-and-seek is coming to an end: the dollar is definitely losing in front of the king of metals. In 2005, we will see a real nuclear explosion of gold.
more : http://www.belkhayate.ma/ang/lettre.php

The latest from Randolph Buss in Berlin:

Remark 18 Nov.pdf

Chuck notes:

Bill:
I looked cursorily at the Times, Investors Daily, Barrons and Business Week and there was not a word regarding gold and very little even about Greenspan's revelation. Absolutely clueless and unreal! Good encouragement by Mike Hoy. He has a good spirit. Chuck

Spoke with my good friend John Anderson today in Vancouver. Of interest, he arranged for Steve Kay of International Minerals in Toronto (IMZ) to meet with some of the heavyweight money managers in Europe, especially Switzerland. The feedback is the BIG MONEY over there is coming out of the woodwork to buy gold equities and bullion. The main catalyst for the burgeoning interest is the big players see the gold price moving in other currencies besides the dollar. As oft-expressed in this column, this is The Gold Cartel’s worst nightmare and what they have fought so hard to suppress.

From what John tells me (and he knows his stuff extremely well) IMG has some important discoveries. For anyone who would like to know more about them, John can be reached at 604 682 7577.