Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

# Hallo Schwabenpfeil,

Meine Ansicht ist die : " Die Amerikaner fürchten den Goldpreis wie der Teufel das Weihwasser?

Den Papier-Dollar können sie gut beeinflußen aber das Gold nicht, wenn dann nur kurzfistig.

gruß hpoth

Mein Vorschlag: die Zentralbanken verkaufen ihre Goldreserven, aber nur an Bürger des Staates, dem die Zentralbank angehört und nur an natürliche Personen.
Dann wandert das Gold, das sowieso uns gehört, auch in unsere Taschen und die Regierung hat dann nichts mehr, das als Hinterlegung der Zwangswährung Euro angesehen werden kann. Die Währungsreserve-Dollars muss die Zentralbank natürlich vorher in Gold "tauschen", damit auch nichts mehr von diesem fiat money rumliegen kann.
Mal sehen, was sich am Markt dann durchsetzen würde: wertlose Papierschnipsel oder Geld, das einen inneren Wert hat und als indirektes Tauschmittel verwendet werden kann (Gold oder Silber, die sind seit Jahrtausenden anerkannt).

cu

extrel

Der neue goldgedeckte ETF scheint mit durchschlagendem Erfolg in den USA gestartet zu sein. In den ersten drei Tagen wurden schon 1,3 Mrd $ umgesetzt.

Gold-backed ETF attracts $1.3 bln after three days
Mon Nov 29, 2004 09:20 AM ET

NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - A recently launched gold-backed exchange-traded fund attracted $1.3 billion in its first three days of trading, a research company said on Tuesday.

The ETF, called streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , attracted $589 million last Thursday, the first day it was offered to the public, and an additional $241 million on Friday, said Santa Rosa, California-based TrimTabs Investment Research.

Though the company said investment flows for ETFs in general turned negative on Monday, the gold-backed ETF gained another $419 million and its success guarantees the creation of more commodity-based ETFs, said Carl Wittnebert, director of research at TrimTabs.

"There's been nothing like it in the history of ETFs," he said in a statement.

Gold (GCZ4: Quote, Profile, Research) for December delivery hit just shy of $450 an ounce, a 16 1/4-year high, on the COMEX division of the NYMEX.

© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/finan…14-20-29_n29395903_newsml

Was sind das für Idioten,die in einen derartigen Fond investieren?Wie kann man nur so dämlich sein.Wenn in meiner Gegenwart ,ein Banker nur noch einmal das Word Fond in den Mund nimmt,könnte ich ihn dafür erschl....

Eine physische Auslieferung ist für Kleinanleger nicht möglich,erst ab eine Million Dollar Einlage.

Da ist wieder ein Fond gegründet worden mit dem die Hedgefonds hervoragend schieben,und den Goldpreis manipulieren können.

Keep your Hands off

Kalle

Der trügerische Glanz des gelben Metalls
Gold

Der Goldpreis steigt und steigt. Auch Privatanleger können an der Hausse teilhaben. Doch längst nicht jede Gold-Anlage zahlt sich aus.

Dollarschwäche belastet Goldfonds
Gold horten

Von Markus Zydra

Der Dollar fällt, der Goldpreis steigt. Auf diesen Nenner lässt sich die aktuelle Entwicklung bringen. Doch das ist nur die halbe Wahrheit. Denn ein Blick auf nebenstehenden Chart zeigt: Gold haussiert schon seit drei Jahren. Wer Ende 2001 einen Barren kaufte, der kann sich nun über gut 80 Prozent Wertzuwachs freuen. Der Unzenpreis kletterte von 255 Dollar auf über 440 Dollar. Und das könnte so weitergehen, meinen einige Experten.

«Ein Szenario von 600 oder 700 Dollar je Unze Gold sehen wir als durchaus realistisch an. Hintergrund sind inflationäre Tendenzen, die spürbar sind. So haben die Preise für Rohstoffe, Aktien und Anleihen enorm zugelegt. Mit einem Gold-Investment sichern sich die Anleger schon jetzt gegen die Inflation ab», sagt Eugen Weinberg, Analyst der BW-Bank, der noch eine technische Begründung für seinen Optimismus hat. «Es überrascht mich schon, wie leicht der Goldpreis über die 435 Dollar gesprungen ist – schliesslich wurde diese Marke 15 Jahre lang nicht erreicht. Eigentlich wäre eine Gegenreaktion zu erwarten gewesen, doch die blieb aus», ergänzt Weinberg.
Anstieg auf 490 Dollar

Ein weiterer Grund für das gestiegene Interesse an Gold ist: Die Investoren sind verunsichert angesichts steigender Staatsschulden und Haushaltsdefizite in der westlichen Welt: «Viele Anleger trauen weder dem Dollar noch dem Euro. Der Schweizer Franken ist da auch nur der Einäugige unter den Blinden. Auf Grund dieser Unsicherheit wollen Investoren etwas Handfestes wie Gold besitzen», sagt Philipp Vorndran, Chief Strategist der Credit Suisse Asset Management. Hintergrund ist die Befürchtung, dass die hohe Staatsverschuldung über steigende Inflationsraten abgebaut werden soll. Vorndran sieht den Goldpreis in zwölf Monaten auf 490 Dollar pro Unze.
Fonds und Zertifikate

Für Privatanleger gibt es verschiedene Möglichkeiten, an der Gold-Hausse teilzuhaben: Aktienfonds, Zertifikate und der Goldbarrenkauf. Aktienfonds investieren weltweit in Goldminenkonzerne. Hier kommt es auf das Geschick des Fondsmanagers an, die richtige Auswahl zu treffen. Bei weitem nicht jede Mine arbeitet profitabel. Hinzu kommt das Währungsproblem. Gold wird in US-Dollar gehandelt: Wie die Ergebnisse der Fondsanalysegruppe Morningstar zeigen, warfen alle Gold-Aktienfonds in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten einen Verlust ab - in Schweizerfranken gerechnet. Grund ist die Dollarschwäche beziehungsweise die Stärke des Frankens.

«Ein Anleger muss sich immer fragen, ob er das Investmentrisiko mit Fremdwährungen eingehen will», sagt Peter Brändle, Fondsmanager des Swissca Gold Equity Fonds. Der Experte warnt vor einer Euphorie: «Der Goldpreis könnte noch leicht steigen, allerdings wird bei steigenden Zinsen der Goldkurs mittelfristig wieder nachgeben.» Gold-Aktienfonds blieben eine gute Ergänzung für das Portfolio, allerdings sei er, was die Performance angeht, nicht mehr so optimistisch wie bislang, sagt Brändle.

Eine weitere Möglichkeit bietet sich dem Privatanleger mit dem Kauf von Zertifikaten. Das hat Vorteile, da ihre Wertentwicklung direkt an den Preis des Rohstoffs geknüpft ist. Ein Investor umgeht also das Risiko, Geld in ein schlecht geführtes Goldminenunternehmen zu investieren.
Oder ein Kilo Gold kaufen?

So genannte Quanto-Zertifikate bieten zudem die Gelegenheit, die Wechselkursschwankungen abzusichern, was Sinn macht, weil der Goldpreis erfahrungsgemäss mit dem Dollarkurs negativ korreliert. Der Zertifikate-Markt ist vor allem in Deutschland enorm gewachsen. Die Bandbreite reicht von schlichten Indexprodukten bis hin zu hochspekulativen Hebelzertifikaten. Ausser Gold können auch viele andere Edelmetalle und Rohstoffe gehandelt werden. Die Produkte gibt es an der Stuttgarter Euwax, und auch die Schweizer Börse SWX hat angekündigt, das Handelssystem auf die Optionsschein- und Zertifikatenachfrage einzustellen.

So genannte Gold Bullion Securities, GBS, die seit gut einem Jahr in Grossbritannien, Australien und Deutschland handelbar sind, geben Anlegern ausserdem die Möglichkeit, Barrengold zu handeln. Ein GBS verbrieft das Recht auf eine Zehntel Unze Gold; das Papier ist durch reale Goldvorräte gedeckt und folgt dem Goldpreis. «Ich würde Privatanlegern empfehlen, physisches Gold zu kaufen. Ein Kilogramm kostet rund 16 500 Franken. Schliesslich sind Goldminen-Aktien und-Zertifikate auch nur Papiere, mit einem Barren hat man die ganze Sicherheit», sagt Eugen Weinberg.
[TA | 26.11.2004]

Gold horten

Gold wird schon lange als ein Mittel gesehen, irdisches Gut vor Unsicherheiten wie Kaufkraftverlust oder Krieg zu schützen. Oft hat das gelbe Metall auch als Krisenpolster vor unerwartet schlechten Ernten gedient. Dahinter steht ein Sicherheitsbedürfnis des Menschen und sein Wunsch, Vermögen werterhaltend aufzubewahren. Ein Grossteil der Goldkäufe in der nicht westlichen Welt in Form von teurem Schmuck oder Barren dient darum heute noch dem Werterhalt. Vor allem in Indien und im Mittleren Osten hat die Goldhortung eine lange Tradition. (sig)

http://www.tagi.ch/dyn/geld/anlegen/440476.html

November 29 – Gold $453.40 up $1.70 – Silver $7.74 up 6 cents

Gold And Silver Longs Cleaning Up, Shorts Confused/CLASSIC Bull Market Action

You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one...John Wooden

GO GATA!!!

Both gold and silver came in on the downside, shooting to fill the gaps left from their Wednesday finish. This is a result from two up days in overseas trading while the Comex was closed. Before even an hour of trading was up, mission accomplished.

From there on it was CLASSIC bullish market action in both precious metals. Silver led the way, leaping 15 cents out of nowhere. It took out its overnight spike high of $7.75 basis the December contract made on the evening of November 17th. The floor views this bullishly as the "trapped" money who bought into that rally is now off the hook.

In very unusual action for gold, it ground its way back up after falling early. It made new high after new high in deliberate, calm trading. From a technical standpoint it is JUST the sort of market performance us bulls like to see. The gold bears and those out of the market have to have that nagging, squeamish feeling as to the way gold continues to trade. It bends only slightly here and there, but does not break, and then quietly makes new high after new high 16-year closes.

One of the main reasons why is the cash market is on fire and has been ALL THE WAY UP. This comment has been of a staple of the MIDASes for many months now, thanks to John Brimelow and our STALKER source input. Ironically, it is hardly mentioned anywhere else. Even if this critical piece of information is occasionally mentioned, it is only in passing. There is almost no emphasis on one of the most essential aspects of the entire market, that being the strength of the physical arena. Incredible!!

Seasonal input: the strongest gold seasonal part of the year kicks in the middle of November. So far so good. For silver it is the end of November. So far so good.

Received a call from our STALKER source who relayed this feedback from his London precious metals dealer friend:

*Have gone from a correction is coming, to 50-50 on that correction (this mentioned in recent MIDAS commentary) to one of significance not likely at all.

*Demand for physical gold "AMAZES" him.

*Greenspan’s comments a week ago Friday has people stirred up.

*General consensus of the dealers over there very positive, in complete contrast with the market pundits, especially the ones on this side of the ocean.

*Looking for $466 to $468 within two weeks. This dealer is known to be extremely conservative.

*Previous silver prediction of $8 to $8.50 by year-end still the same.

My friend Harvey Gordon of El Dorado gold in Phoenix continues to report of "generic" gold coins. Harvey says he has never seen it like this before.

The gold open interest fell 217 contracts to 352,421. The DEC dropped over 53,000 contracts to around 55,000. There was a good deal of switching today. Still, this is a large number.

Good news: a comeback in the gold euro price which fell all the way down to 338+ at one point. It has rallied back and closed at 341.80. It must take out 344 to kick the gold market into full bullish gear as far as the Europeans are concerned.

The euro itself closed at 132.76, down .17 with the dollar gaining .15 to 81.96.

The norm has been for the pundits to talk of the gold market as nothing more than a dollar bear market. In an overall big picture sense, this has been fairly true. However, if you go back a couple of years ago, when the dollar began its swan dive, you will find gold broke higher first, for weeks, BEFORE the dollar began to fall. Gold LED the dollar plunge, not vice-versa.

My point is many of the pundits cannot see the forest for the trees. Gold has risen mostly in dollar terms, especially this last part of the run, because The Gold Cartel has engineered it this way to dampen gold investment excitement in the rest of the world. By keeping gold in check in various currencies, it has also affected the profitability of many gold producers. Costs, relative to the dollar gold price have soared, and a number have not benefited from the dollar rise in the price. This has led to subdued interest in the gold shares, which has kept public interest in the sector at minimal levels, hence partly the reason for the mediocre Café Sentiment Indicator. All this while gold soars to one 16-year high after another, flying more than $20 above a key resistance level at $430.

Speaking of the Café Sentiment Indicator, I was stunned to return home from my Thanksgiving Day Holiday in San Diego to see it had sunk to a 4. The rise in the price of gold is creating no interest or excitement as far as the general public is concerned. Never seen anything like this in all my life. You won’t find any more bullish charts than these, yet few are paying attention:

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4

Gold Weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

What’s going on out there?

*As mentioned Friday, the so-called bullion dealer pros like Citigroup are neutral to bearish. If you went to them about whether to buy gold shares, you would run away as fast as possible after reading their analysis (inept), what with the likes of their prediction of an average gold price of $425 for next year. Citi, like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, is nothing but a disinformation machine.

*MOST of the long-term gold bulls are short-term bearish. Almost to a man and woman (the attractive Aden Sisters), they are looking for gold to be bopped anywhere from $18 to $75 before the gold bull gets on tracks. Meanwhile, gold is going almost straight up.

It has risen $17 to $20 since the New Orleans Investment Conference when speaker after speaker called for a correction. What confuses me is how few of the market pundits have respected the breakout out through $430, a talked about key resistance level for a very long time. This was a big deal and gold has rallied $23.40 since then, yet the higher the price goes up, the more the gold bulls yawn. Certainly they could not be paying attention to what gold did after taking out $330, another very key technical level.

*As oft-repeated in this column for years, there is almost NO understanding of what this gold market is really all about. Who out there talks of how the price was artificially suppressed for nearly a decade by the corrupt Gold Cartel? Who speaks of the monstrous 16,000 tonne short position? These are essential aspects of the gold market which are not even mentioned, much less discussed.

This is CRITICAL information for understanding gold. The gold price at $450 is an illusion. As mentioned by the Russian Central Bank, gold should be $750 JUST to have kept up with inflation since 1980. Gold is undervalued at the moment by $300 per ounce at a minimum. Gold in the $450’s is chump change stuff. This doesn’t mean gold explodes to $750 overnight. The Gold Cartel and "officialdom" are doing all they can to keep the price under "control." The problem for them is physical demand is soaring just as the gold supply is dwindling. Meanwhile, the dollar is a disaster, not just waiting to happen, but happening.

*Both stunning and unprecedented. For the FOURTH week in a row, the small specs went more short than long, according to the latest COT report released this afternoon - to the tune of another 2,000 contracts. Never seen anything like this. Normally, the little guy would be pouring into the long side with gold fever exuberance. Not this time. He is looking for a correction in the gold price along with MOST of the pundits. This is not the sort of company one would like to have in a market which is trending practically straight up.

Something else to cover here. There is little fear out there among the investing public as to what I believe is going to hit the US and world financial markets like a tidal wave. When our stock market is belted, the US interest rates soar, the US real estate market is shocked (or some combination thereof), FEAR will set in and set in BIG TIME. This will add an entire new dimension to gold/goldshare demand in the months to come.

Gold is going to explode. If not by the end of the year, then by early next year. There are too many reasons to own gold. Once the investing public around the world catches on to what we know, they will all want IN. Investment light bulbs are going to go off at the same time everywhere. The tiny gold market will not be able to handle the demand. There will be few offers in the gold share market and the shares will go berserk in a vacuum. This time is coming and few out there "get it.

This is why it is so important to stay in position. This is THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime. Time to be there.

New high silver close for the move:

December silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C4

The silver open interest fell 2746 contracts to 118,975. The DEC fell over 13,000 contracts to 22,000. Of interest is the silver open interest is 4,000 off its peak made earlier this year, while gold is 50,000 contracts over its 305,000 peak earlier this year. A LOT of room for silver specs to pile in on the long side.

Special note: Something is in the works for silver which should give the shorts a real jolt. Should know before the end of the year if it will come to pass. Am unable to elaborate any further except to say it will make those who refuse to understand gold and silver are money to take notice. Will be wake-up call time, a significant one!

All the gold and silver longs on the Comex are winners. All the shorts have losing positions.

John Brimelow Report

JB: India buying; US small specs shorting: Hmmmm

Monday, November 29, 2004

Contrary to conventional wisdom (but as anticipated here),World gold without Comex was buoyant on Thursday and Friday. The heavily-defended $450 level was overcome in early European trading on Thursday, running to $452; $455 was seen during the European morning on Friday and an attempt to close gold below $450 defeated.

Indian buying did not falter. Thursday ex-duty premiums: AM $7.01, PM $6.90, with world gold at $449.15 and $451.65. Ample for legal imports. Bombay bullion and FX markets were closed on Friday, but Monday’s ex-duty premiums are: AM $8.22, PM $8.46, with world gold at $450.25 and $450.65. Lavish for legal imports.

India’s ability to bid for world gold began to receive some help on Monday from the rupee. The Reserve Bank stood back and allowed the currency to breach $1 = R45 this afternoon: it closed at a 7 month high of 44.835 today and has subsequently firmed further. From a purely mechanical point of view, it is difficult to see world gold selling off, except fleetingly, with the world’s largest buyer, India, in the market right now and certain to step up purchases on any weakness.

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus attained 80% on Wednesday, a level not seen since November 1. High – but it spent virtually all October in the 80s, cresting at 85% on October 25. Similarly Mark Hulbert’s Gold Newsletter Sentiment Indicator has reached a new recent high of 78.57, which however is well below historic peaks. See

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/new…E884%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

TOCOM continues apparently very quiet and non-committal. Today volume was only equal to 14,067 Comex lots (down 23% from Friday). Open interest did rise the equivalent of 527 Comex contracts, and according to Mitsubishi the public added 4 ¼ tonnes to its long, bringing it to the equivalent of 28,213 Comex lots. The active contract slipped 1 yen and world gold stood at $451 at the close. (NY traded 210,108 lots on Wednesday, or about 50,000 lots net of switches. Open interest slipped 217 lots to 352,421, having plummeted a startling 18,148 on Tuesday.)

Somewhat disappointing to gold’s friends were the Japanese October gold import data: only 4.26 tonnes, down 31% from September and 28% from the year before. This suggests the divergence between physical buying and futures liquidation in Japan remains quite modest. More encouragingly, a series of stories from China indicate that a small offering of bullion coins (priced at an unkindly $30 premium above spot) have sold out quickly. The most encouraging aspect of these stories is their underlining how difficult it still is for the Chinese public to access reasonably priced bullion. This may possibly be a part of the reason for the sluggish growth in gold consumption there over the past decade. See

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e…-11/27/content_395351.htm

Far from being a respite, the last few days have been tough for the Bears: macro economic tides seem set against them, and the main physical buyer appears to be receiving special help. They have some discouraging company too: according to this afternoon’s CFTC data small specs increased their net short position for the 4th straight week, by 1,912 lots to 38,198 (118.8 tonnes).

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW swooned early, but came back to close off only 45 to 10,476. The DOG rose again – this time to 2107, up 5.

Bonds hit a vacuum this morning and tanked. However, as has been the case for so long when it comes to the US financial markets, they hit a brick wall of buying and held their ground for the rest of the day. The 30-year finished at 111 ½, down 1 5/32.

What is going on here with the bonds, which have paid little attention to the sinking dollar to-date? My bet is the answer lies in is this comment from a recently circulated article by GATA’s Chris Powell:

"That remains to be seen. According to the most recent Treasury data, the biggest source of growth in securities came not from China, Japan or Europe but from Caribbean banking centers."

Caribbean banking centers? How about the Fed pulling a coy fast-one and propping up the bonds and doing what they can to make it look like the propping isn’t coming from our own US printing press?

A break of 111 would case some serious technical deterioration in the US bond market:

December bonds
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C4

Speaking of bonds, for the latest Bill Gross market comment, go to:

Click here: PIMCO Bonds - IO December 2004

US shopping news reports were mixed. Wal-Mart jolted Wall Street bulls, yet other reports were more positive:

Wal-Mart Sales Stoke Recovery Fears

By James Politi in New York
and Chris Giles in London
Financial Times, London
Sunday, November 28, 2004

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/40804…d9-9dd8-00000e2511c8.html

Worries about the sustainability of the US economic recovery were stoked on Sunday after the stores group Wal-Mart, seen as a bellwether for the country's retail sector, announced that sales had grown by only 0.7 percent in the year to November -- a much lower rate than the 2-4 percent increase Wal-Mart had estimated just 10 days ago.

The world's largest retailer revised its estimates down on Saturday evening after disappointing sales on "Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving and traditionally one of the biggest shopping days in the US.

The retailer reported that sales had fallen "below plan" in the last week of November and sales growth was down on the 2.8 percent annual rate it had reported for October.

The weakness suffered by Wal-Mart, if reflected elsewhere, would add to concerns about the durability of the economic upturn. Any widespread reluctance by consumers to maintain their free and easy spending habits would slow the economy sharply…..

-END-

The commentary coming out on the dollar from all over the world is astoundingly ugly as far as the prospects for the dollar are concerned. You have to wonder what the surprise is? What could have been more obvious for so long than where the dollar was headed? The reason for articles such as these is simple:

PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY!

Greenback slide a 'time bomb'
November 28, 2004

Asian banks have racked up huge debt propping the $US, writes Richard Webb.

The plunging US dollar is potentially the most explosive situation seen on world financial markets since the technology bubble at the turn of the decade, economists have warned. It is developing into a $US1 trillion ($A1.3 trillion) time bomb.

That's the value of US debt Asian central banks hold after propping the greenback over the past two years. They have accumulated the debt by effectively lending money to the US to enable it to buy Asian imports and in doing so have funded more than 90 per cent of the US's ballooning trade deficit.

ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake says they have been running "the greatest vendor financing scheme the world has seen".

The problem is that the Bush Administration now appears intent on letting the greenback fall to solve the US's trade and budget deficit problems, as this is a far easier solution than the alternative of reducing budgets and lifting tax rates. The US wants Asia and Europe to take on the economic burden of its budget and trade problems through a higher euro and yen. But as the $US falls, the capital losses on this $US1 trillion of US debt held by the Asian central banks mount and at some stage these banks are likely to stop buying US debt and start selling. And none of them will want to be the last one out.

"At some point, the Asian central banks, who have almost single-handedly financed the massive US external deficit and propped up the $US, will get tired of doing so," Mr Eslake said. "The risk is that they are holding over $US1 trillion, and if the $US starts to fall they will suffer capital losses."

There were signs of this on Friday night when the euro hit a record high against the $US on a report that a Chinese central bank official had said his country had trimmed its holdings of US treasuries. This report was later denied but the $US finished 2.1 per cent lower for the week against the euro and 0.5 per cent down against the yen.

Bank of England chief economist Charles Bean warned on Friday night that international investors were unlikely to keep buying US assets indefinitely, resulting in a "possible substantial" drop in the $US, echoing similar comments from Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan a week earlier. Currency traders predicted the $US selling will accelerate this week.

"What we are seeing now is far more than just speculation - these are real fundamental shifts in portfolio allocations from official and private entities, and that could continue and see the dollar selling accelerate," said Derek Halpenny, a currency strategist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.

-END-

More evidence of the lack of understanding what gold is all about as far as the US investing public is concerned. This is no accident. It is Gold Cartel related and leads credence to the notion of how little understanding there is.

Gold is on a tear, but where are investors?

Fri Nov 26, 7:14 AM ET

By John Waggoner, USA TODAY

Gold is having a party, but investors aren't coming.

Gold closed at $449 an ounce Wednesday, up 76% from its February 2001 low of $255. The yellow metal has gained 8% this year, vs. 6.3% for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. And gold funds, which invest mainly in gold-mining stocks, have been the top-performing mutual fund category the past five years, jumping 154%, vs. 11% for the average stock fund.

But investors have yawned.

• The U.S. Mint has sold 465,500 ounces of gold Eagle bullion coins this year, vs. 484,500 ounces last year.

• Investors have put just $396 million into gold mutual funds this year, less than 1% of the $139 billion that has poured into stock funds. New money into U.S. Global World Precious Metals, the top-performing stock mutual fund the past three years, has been "modest," says Frank Holmes, the fund's manager.

• Subscriptions to Gold Newsletter, among the oldest gold advisory publications, are about where they've been for 10 years, editor Brien Lundin says.

Gold prices have been pushed up by the dramatic fall in the dollar. Investors often view gold as a currency of last resort, a commodity that retains its worth even when paper money falls in value. The dollar hit a new low against the euro Wednesday, trading at $1.32 per euro.

But investors have been more interested in buying foreign currencies than gold. International income funds, which invest in foreign bonds, have raked in an estimated $2.4 billion this year. "We haven't seen broad public interest in gold yet," Lundin says.

Why not? Gold bullion can be cumbersome to store, and it pays no dividends or interest, as stocks and bonds do. Few corporate retirement plans offer gold funds, whose year-to-date returns are unimpressive: The average gold fund has lost about 2%.

Most important, many investors remember the last big increase in gold prices. Gold peaked at $850 an ounce in 1980 and is still well below those levels now. Anyone who bought gold as an inflation hedge in the 1980s is sitting on losses.

The past 15 years, gold funds have averaged just 2.7%, vs. 2.8% for inflation, according to Morningstar.

Such muted enthusiasm could mean that the bull market in gold is in its early stages, says James DiGeorgia, editor of Gold & Energy Advisor.

DiGeorgia thinks the weak dollar and soaring deficits could drive gold to $1,000 an ounce. "We're at the fulcrum of very interesting times," he says.

-END-

James DiGeorgia does "get it." Good for him.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, demand for gold is surging:

Gold Bars Welcomed by Chinese consumers

China Daily, Beijing
Saturday, November 27, 2004

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e…-11/27/content_395351.htm

With more cash in their wallets, many Chinese are looking for ways to diversify their investments to guarantee the security of assets and to even seek a profit.

For many, gold seems to be the favored choice. The second batch of 2005 New Years Celebration Gold Bars have just gone on sale in Beijing and being warmly received by potential consumers.

Ranging from 50 to 1,000 grams, the gold bars are selling at 128 Yuan per gram, an increase of 3 Yuan compared with the first batch of bars that sold out quickly just a week ago.

Wang Chunli, general manager of Beijing Caibai Department Store, said, "The main reason for the increase in price is because the international gold price rose. Our price will move closely with the Chinese benchmark."

The international gold price has been on a up-trend recently. On November 25, the international gold price hit almost a 16-year high of 452.75 US dollars per ounce. But this small increase has not frightened consumers away.

Wang said, "The first 300 kilograms of gold bars sold out very quickly. The second batch is only 200 kilograms, but we've received orders of more than 1,000 kilograms. If it is possible, we will try every means to provide a big enough third batch to meet the demand, maybe another 300 kilograms."

The bullish price reflects a strong market demand. The enthusiastic public response is obviously very good news for gold producers. One industry organization profits for the year.

According to statistics of the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2004, profits from its 300 member gold producers totaled more than 2 billion Yuan, or US$245 million, a jump of 35 percent year on year.

Gold output amounted to some 149 tons during this period, an increase of 7 percent. Total gold demand in 2004 is expected to rise to 220 tons from 207 last years.

-END-

Same theme in a different story:

Gold frenzy set to hit again 29/11/2004 7:53

Shanghai Daily news

China's heaviest gold coins are due to go on sale on December 6 and the issuer is confident the Chinese passion for the metal will ensure the 27 pieces worth more than 1.8 million yuan (US$216,867) each will be sold, especially after 1.985 tons of gold bullion were sold out within a week.
"We will hold a press conference in Beijing to unveil our heavy 10-kilogram gold coins on December 6," Chen Kui, general manager of Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Co Ltd, told Shanghai Daily. "Investors have already booked 16 coins and we are confident of selling the remaining 11 since we received numerous inquiries for them."
The company sold out the gold bullions that were issued to mark the coming 'Year of Rooster' which falls on February 9, 2005.
The 10-kg coins, which are 99.99 percent pure, have a diameter of 18 centimeters. The dragon, a traditional Chinese symbol that represents power and royalty in the country, are the main pattern on the coins.
The high gold prices seem not to have dampened investors' or collectors' enthusiasm for the coins as an initial batch of 300 kilograms of the 'Year of Rooster' bullion, which started selling in Beijing first on November 19, were sold out on its debut, earlier media reports said.
The reaction in Shanghai among buyers was just as warm when 100 kilograms of the bullion earmarked for the city were sold out after they were released to the market last Monday.
"Most of the bullions were reserved before the official sale," Chen said. "As the issuer, we sold out all the 2 tons of the bullions in the country up to November 25 and I am not worried about the retailers' sales performance."
The bullions, each of which has a mark of the rooster to indicate the coming animal year according to the Chinese lunar calendar, were sold in 50, 100, 200 and 500 gram pieces, and 100 pieces of 1 kilogram bars.
The bullions, which can be sold back to the issuer, were seen as an investment alternative on account of the bearish stock market, high property prices, and low bank deposit rates.
Gold prices have gained by 9 percent so far this year to hit 120.75 yuan a gram on Shanghai Gold Exchange, the country's sole gold bourse, on Friday.
Buyers of the bullions may cash them in at any time they want. The buy-back prices of the bullions will be based on the gold prices in local and international markets with a 2 percent commission added.
"The Chinese have a passion for gold and the current high property prices and bearish stock market will help gold glimmer even more as a safe haven to hedge against inflation," said Sun Changyan, a trader with Shanghai Lao Miao Jewelry Co Ltd.
The government will also allow individuals to trade the metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said earlier this year in Shanghai.

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Chuck checked in this morning:

I can't believe how many more gold "experts" are still calling for a correction and caution here. I noticed Schultz, Adens and Hulbert with no new ones added this weekend. Good to see relative strength with the dollar rebounding today. Keep your eye on GSS here. It might be ready.

Here's another observation. In almost every instance, the metal has been moving ahead of the shares. It's happening again. Chuck

From the Telegraph in London. Full story emailed out over the weekend:

Brown's gold sale 'cost the UK £1.5bn'
By Tony Freinberg
(Filed: 28/11/2004)

Gordon Brown has cost the British taxpayer almost £1.5 billion by selling off half of Britain's bullion reserves just before the gold price soared.

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It was the contrived British sale of gold in May of 1999 which converted many to the GATA camp, even our stalwarts like Reg Howe and Frank Veneroso. The announcement came with gold finally beginning to surge and an attempt to get the IMF to sell gold having failed miserably. There were all kinds of mutterings in England after the announcement, which raised a stink behind the scenes, in front of the scene too like in the British Parliament.

There was an uproar because it could not have been more obvious the announcement was made to squash the price rise. No one would announce a 400 tonne sale of gold in advance in auction form, with the winners of the auctions going to the lowest bidders, unless there was a different agenda other than obtaining the highest price for the citizens of England’s gold.

The "poodle-like" nature of the Blair Government towards the US is costing Britain dearly. First, it was the ignominious sale of more than half of their gold stock at the bottom of the market, one made to facilitate the gold fraud. Then, it was Britain’s support of the US’s ill-planned venture into Iraq.

As far as rebuke is concerned when it comes to dumping cheap central bank gold, wait until the gold scandal breaks. Whether the 16,000 tonnes of gold loans have to be paid back or not, the central bank gold IS GONE! One of these days the banks will have to reveal this to the citizens. Who knows how much gold the US really has left? Wait until the Fed and Treasury are FORCED to allow an independent audit to come in and find out what is there. About time. Has not been one since the Eisenhower Administration.

Harmony’s bid to take over Gold Fields has created quite a flap. Whether you are for the deal or against it, there is one guaranteed positive should the deal go through. Bernard Swanepoel, the CEO of Harmony, will end the relationship with The World Gold Council, an organization which has done less than nothing to expose the manipulation of the gold price and gone out of its way to hinder GATA’s efforts.

Harmony victory could harm promotion
By Kevin Morrison in London
Published: November 26 2004 02:00 | Last updated: November 26 2004 02:00

If Harmony's takeover bid for rival South African gold miner Gold Fields succeeds, it could affect future promotion efforts by the World Gold Council.

Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony chief executive, has said he would end Gold Fields' membership of the WGC, saving about $7m a year or about 11 per cent of the council's annual budget, which is mainly spent on the promotion of gold.

The threat to the council's budget comes after a round of belt-tightening early this year when the council cut staff numbers at its international offices, and moved its London headquarters from its premium Pall Mall address in London's West End to a cheaper office in the City of London.

Harmony is not a member of the council, nor are the bulk of gold miners. The miners that contribute account for only 30 per cent of global production. They pay $1.75 on each ounce of gold they produce to the council, giving it an annual income of $60m.

The issue of paying council duties has split the gold sector, with the contributors AngloGold Ashanti, Newmont, Placer Dome, Barrick and Gold Fields complaining that the non-paying members are benefiting from the promotional efforts of the council….

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The title of this Reuters article is a misnomer as far as gold is concerned.

Investor Rogers says commodities best bet

Mon Nov 29, 2004 02:47 AM ET TOKYO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Coffee, sugar and other commodities, which are enjoying a prolonged bull run, offer the best potential for big returns, well-known investor Jim Rogers said on Monday. So much so that even his baby daughter owns some

http://yahoo.reuters.com/finan…9_07-47-03_t137971_newsml

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