Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

I have had the pleasure of dining with Jim Rogers twice over the past five years – obviously a very interesting man. However, his knowledge about gold is remarkably bereft. Both of us have presented at the NO conference for five years. He has pooh-poohed gold each time, extolling attendees to be long lead not gold. Gold is up $200 off its lows. To Jim’s credit, lead has been a winner, doubling in price over the last 3 years. However, gold has almost doubled too. The point is how many listeners to his talks went out and bought lead? Maybe 5, at best. Yet, his talking down the possibilities for the price of gold has probably kept thousands from being long all these years and doing well financially.

Spoke with my friend Mahendra this afternoon. He gets congrats again for nailing the coffee market. It took off today, rising 6 cents, and reached his 98 cent target.

He still is very bullish on gold and silver with $478 is near term target. Yes, somewhere in here we will get some corrections, but they will be short-lived. He sees much volatility next year. Two years ago he told me gold would be trading in $20 clips. That time is not far off according to this seer. Longer term he sees gold hitting $1600 and then being FIXED at $1,000 per ounce.

*Gold won’t see $400 again for 49 years.
*The US stock market could gap open lower one day, like 600 points, and then go down from there.
*Corn will be a great spec play in the next 3 to 6 months.

Speaking of astrology, I had dinner a few years ago with the highly regarded Arch Crawford, oft-seen on CNBC. He sent the following note about a Cafe member's comment in a past MIDAS, which is my pleasure to bring to your attention:

Bill,
I am writing you in answer to a piece sent out under your heading, comparing a Bearish opinion on GOLD by me to a Bullish one of Mahendra. I DO NOT want your clientele laboring under that Mis-Information!

This Consulting bulletin was sent to my Consulting clients on September 30 as shown below.

When I was interviewed on CNBC with Ron Insana, (On my website) he reminded me I said in previous letter dated Oct. 4 I wrote:

"OCT 22-28 = We expect an extreme run Up and TOP in Gold/Oil/CRB Index. Be LONG going IN & SHORT going OUT this period! My best guess for the TOP is Monday, the 25th."

GOLD and OIL both topped on October 25, OIL at 55.67 and GOLD at 432.00

These are SHORT-Term projections given by dates on the back of my newsletter.

Subsequently, GOLD pulled back and bottomed at 418.00 on November 2.

OIL pulled back to a 45.25 low on November 15. It broke out to the upside again on November 19.

I was considering getting out of some intermediate/longer term Gold positions for newsletter subscribers, but completing my technical and astro-analyses for my Oct. 4 CP newsletter, decided that GOLD was beginning a New Leg to 470+ immediately and put a chart with that notation on it on PAGE ONE of the 4 Oct letter.

In our CRAWFORD PERSPECTIVES newsletter, we have been LONG GOLD/OIL & CRB Index since April 4, 2001 at GOLD Price $258 and warning against US $ whose Index was 115 at that time.

We instituted a trade in the newsletter on the US$ Index to go SHORT in our May 3, 2004 letter at 91.02 (closed Fri 81.81).

I will bet that you do not have any clients or friends who took GOLD positions at a more opportune time, very close to the intermediate pullback low at 258 on 4 April 2001.

I apologize that I thought you were on our lists for the CP newsletter, and possibly for the consulting briefs.

Attached please find our October & November letters, as you can see that all I have said is true!

Hope you will correct any opinions to the contrary that were sent out under Metropole auspices.

Most Sincerely,
Arch Crawford
PS: Keep up the damn good work!!

The latest on the World Gold Council’s EFT:

Hi Bill,
This was written by a message board correspondent, "llccman" ... I am forwarding it with his permission.

(From yesterday)

The new gold ETF, (NYSE: GLD) has published its list of gold bars on account.

http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/inc/Barlist.pdf

6981 400-ounce bars totaling 2,799,570 ounces, or about 87 tonnes of gold is now held by the custodians of the fund and accounted for by make, weight, fineness and serial number on that list.

$1.45 billion has flowed into the fund since last Thursday, or 5 1/2 trading days.

The bar figures released Friday are evidently from data on Wednesday. There are now 32,300,000 shares of the ETF, so that means that the trust will have added earlier today at least an additional 430,000 ounces (13 tonnes or 1,075 more bars) to bring the fund in line with its 1/10 ounce per share mandate. According to the figures posted Friday, 11/26, the trust now holds 3,299,932 ounces or about 100 tonnes.

100 tonnes of the available stocks have been moved into this new trading vehicle in a very, very short time. Charles Biderman, who publishes Trim Tabs and follows flows into mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds, said that he has never seen anything like the rapid pace of funds flowing into the new gold exchange traded fund. He suspects that a new wave of commodity based ETF's will be spawned by the success of GLD.

To give this amount of gold some perspective:

For those who follow Crystallex, after one week the new ETF now holds about 1/4 of the known amount of p/p reserves that Crystallex plans to mine over 20 years at Las Cristinas.

In that short time, the fund has put away gold amounting to about 3% of total global production including scrap.

100 tonnes is equal to about 8.9% of all the 362,336 open interest contracts on the COMEX, both long and short, as of November 16.

-END-

What I still can’t get anyone to explain is if this ETF is responsible for so much buying why is gold trading NO DIFFERENTLY than it has for the past three months? That is a fact.

The GATA ARMY at work – some feed back from the SEC on this same gold ETF:

Hi Bill,
I got a phone call this morning from Mr. ROBERT T GREENE from the SEC in response to my continued email questioning of 'full disclosure' (see below). He admits that the perception of the financial press that this ETF 'GLD' could be misleading. However; he further acknowledges that he HAS NOT READ THE FILING HIMSELF! He suggested that I refine my request for information and he will pass it up the line to the appropriate party. He was curious why I felt there was not full disclosure. I explained that the entire basis of this fund was the physical holding of gold in a secure unhypothicated condition and any action by this fund which in any way differed from that concept needs to be listed in bold print on the cover page in order for the SEC to claim that they have fulfilled their 'full disclosure' obligation.
Herb

----- Original Message -----

From: Herb Yussim
To: SEC Help
Sent: Wednesday, November 24, 2004 11:44 AM
Subject: Re: SEC Response - File # HO1034465

Dear Mr. ROBERT T GREENE,
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(202)942-7221

My question was "My question is whether the SEC would authorize such an issue if it was not what it appeared or was purported to be. My assumption is that GLD has gold in their own vault under guard. If that is not the case, if it is anything different then that, please clarify."

You responded to my question with "The SEC does not technically "authorize" a registration statement so that the securities can trade. Instead, the SEC reviews registration statements and ensures the issuer has made full disclosure."

Perhaps we can eliminate the hair splitting by rephrasing my question:

My refined question: Has the SEC reviewed the registration statements and ensured that the issuer has made full disclosure? Does the issue in question hold gold bullion under its own absolute control; yes or no?

The issuer of GLD is street TRACKS GOLD TRUST (formerly EQUITY GOLD TRUST). The company's filings can be located on our EDGAR database at http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/bro…0001222333&owner=include.

If it is the job of the SEC is to promote transparency, and trust by the small retail investor, giving a hair splitting non answer to a simple question is unsatisfactory. By reading the company's filings and footnotes, I am not able to discern a clear answer; can you? The SEC has failed to do its job in this instance, to insure that the issuer has made full disclosure if you cannot answer a simple yes or no question. Why, what is the reason for non disclosure?

Herb Yussim
President
City Production, Ltd.
http://www.cityproduction.com

----- Original Message -----

From: "SEC Help" <help@sec.gov>

To: "Yussim, Herbert" <herb@cityproduction.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 24, 2004 7:45 AM
Subject: SEC Response - File # HO1034465

Dear Mr. Yussim:

The SEC does not technically "authorize" a registration statement so that the securities can trade. Instead, the SEC reviews registration statements and ensures the issuer has made full disclosure. This is done by the SEC making comments and the issuer filing amendments to the registration statement.

The issuer of GLD is street TRACKS GOLD TRUST (formerly EQUITY GOLD TRUST). The company's filings can be located on our EDGAR database at http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/bro…0001222333&owner=include.

According to the S-1, the Trust is an investment trust whose purpose is to hold gold bullion. Each share represents a proportional interest, based on the total number of shares outstanding, in the gold and any cash held by the Trust, less the Trust's liabilities.

For more information, you may want to contact the issuer at (212) 317-3800. You also can speak to our experts in the Divison of Investment Management at (202) 942-0659 or imocc@sec.gov.

Sincerely,

ROBERT T GREENE
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(202)942-7221

QUESTION
---------------------------------------------------------
Submitted: 2004-11-23

INVESTOR INFORMATION
Name: Mr. Herbert M Yussim

QUESTION

There is a new ETF with the symbol GLD. I am very confused about whether I would be investing directly in real gold or some other form of 'paper gold' if I bought it. I have read various opinions on a few different gold investment web sites.

My question is whether the SEC would authorize such an issue if it was not what it appeared or was purported to be. My assumption is that GLD has gold in their own vault under guard. If that is not the case, if it is anything different then that, please clarify.

Thanks.

-END-

A plug for Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland, a sharp guy with a great mind:

Bill;
I have been a subscriber, GATA member, and admirer for a few years and the following market notice compelled me to write. Recently Ralph Goodale, our Minister of Finance, fought off enormous pressure to apply the Canadian Federal Government surplus to social programs, and instead used it to reduce Federal Debt. At the time I thought aha! this is meaningful. And then this from Doug Noland's excellent Credit Bubble Bulletin on Friday at http://www.prudentbear.com/ : November 26- Market News International (Courtney Tower): "Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said late Wednesday the huge accumulation of United States debt and massive buildup of Asian reserves from financing that debt is a problem that could lead to 'a big crash.' Dodge, appearing before the Banking Committee of the Canadian Senate, drew a picture of a looming crisis in what he called the 'international monetary order' The United States has been 'relatively slow in moving to correct its fiscal deficit' and has a 'very weak' savings record---Americans 'continue to consume more than they produce' Dodge said."

At the moment I'm somewhat proud (and relieved) to be a Canadian, and strongly recommend reading the last part of Noland's article entitled 'A Letter To The Dollar'. Is this the beginning of Richard Duncan's 'Dollar Crisis' scenario? Please keep up the Good Fight for truth and transparency. Yourself, and GATA, are contemporary heros. I wonder what Lemetropolecafe's membership will be a year from now? Thanks!
Bill Woodland, Owen Sound, Ontario, Canada.

Is The Gold Cartel in control or on the way out? From Adrian on Saturday:

Bill,
The quote in the Midas from Standard London got me thinking:

"There is a possibility of a short term correction from these higher levels ($455) on Monday when the U.S. markets return and MAY ATTEMPT TO RESUME CONTROL CLOSER TO TUESDAY'S LOWER CLOSE."

This is very significant. It was interpreted by the Café member as the Cartel will be making a counter-attack on Monday…perhaps the long expected "ambush". What I read into this is that the Cartel has LOST control. They are dead. The "Commercial Signal Failure" is here and now. We have long conditioned our thinking that the death of the Cartel would be the explosion of the market and the derivatives neutron bomb going off. I think that may not be the true symptoms of the death of the Cartel but the symptoms of the realization of market participants that the Cartel is dead.

The Modus Operandi of the Cartel is not to control the market themselves but to work on the margins of the market and stampede the sheep. So what happens when the Cartel is defeated? The bulls gingerly buy expecting to be bushwhacked. They buy more still expecting to be bushwhacked. The Cartel Groupies sell short because they "know" what always happens…but yet it doesn’t. The market keeps advancing slowly because both sides are not fully convinced. This looks like the market is being "capped" which reinforces the notion that the Cartel are still controlling the market, but they are not! We are now at $22 above the $430 line in the sand. $22 above the breakout of the beautiful 10 year cup and handle formation. The analysts are all expecting a correction. I don’t think they are so much expecting one as hoping for one. The dollar closed on Friday at 0.8181 on the USDX…that was below the very, very important 1995 low and the dollar has broken below the neckline of a huge head and shoulders formation. Do the Gold bears still think the Cavalry is coming???!!!!!! Greenspan’s speech last week prompted me to write "Something Big is about to happen" at the Little Bear Table. Greenspan said very clearly "the cavalry is not coming" but only a few were listening. Andy Smith’s comments that gold was like snake oil, could certainly be expected from a soldier of the besieged Bear regiment…the Indians are all around, there is no ammo left and the cavalry still hasn’t come. As the water runs out, delirium from heat exposure sets in and incoherent mutterings are made.

I think what we are seeing is the immediate aftermath of the death of the Cartel. The explosion of the gold price will happen when the non-Cartel Bears realize the Cartel is dead and that the Cavalry is not on its way. I think we may see the obituary of the Cartel in the market next week.

R.I.P. Gold Cartel.
Adrian

-END-

The gold shares continue to stink up the place. The higher gold goes, the more investors want to dump their shares, figuring the rally cannot last. The XAU only went up .14 to 110.01, while the pitiful HUI lost .46 to 242.93. It can’t wait to take out 240 on the downside again.

The lack of interest in the gold/silver shares will prove to be inane in the months to come. The gold and silver producers are cleaning up this quarter due to the metals’ high prices. The explorations are going to take off as the investment world realizes the need to find gold and silver in the ground AND FAST!!!

To win in the end you:

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Nov 29, 2004

Morgan Stanley:

<>Global: The World?s Biggest Excess

Stephen Roach (New York)

Global rebalancing has quickly turned into the global blame game. "It’s the other guy," exclaim Asians, Europeans, and Americans, when the issue of responsibility comes up. America’s Bush Administration views the rest of the world as suffering from a growth deficiency, largely brought about by under-consumption and excess saving. Conversely, Asians and Europeans view the United States as suffering from a saving deficiency brought about by over-consumption and government budget deficits. Who’s got it right?

The truth is, they probably all do. There can be no mistaking the extraordinary disparities in the global consumption dynamic in recent years. Over the 1996 to 2004 period, annual growth in US personal consumption expenditures averaged 3.9% -- nearly double the 2.2% pace recorded elsewhere in the so-called advanced world. Americans, for their part, have spent well beyond their means -- as those means are delineated by the US economy’s internal income generating capacity. Over the 1996 to 2004 period, annual growth in real disposable personal income averaged 3.4% -- fully 0.5 percentage point slower than average growth in consumer demand. As a result, the personal saving rate plunged from an already-depressed 4.6% level in 1995 to just 0.2% in September 2004. At the same time, the consumption share of US GDP surged to a record 71% by mid-2002 -- an extraordinary breakout from the 67% share that prevailed, on average, over the 25 years from 1975 to 2000. Never before has an advanced economy taken consumerism to such excess.

There’s no deep secret as to how the American consumer pulled it off. It’s all about the emerging power of the asset economy -- namely, how US consumers have turned increasingly from income generation to wealth creation in order to sustain current consumption. At work since 1995 has been the strongest and most sustained surge of above-trend growth in real household sector net worth of the modern-day, post-World War II era. American consumers were quick to make use of this windfall as an increasingly important supplemental source of purchasing power.

Moreover, there has been an important shift in the asset economy that took the US consumption dynamic to excess in recent years. The first wave came from the stock market, as household equity holdings surged from about 13% of total assets in 1991 to 35% at the peak in 2000. During the final stages of the equity bubble, individual stock portfolios supplanted real estate as the US household sector’s most important asset. By early 2000, residential property had fallen to less than 25% of total household sector assets, more than ten percentage points below the equity portion. It was only after the equity bubble popped that the asset economy took its most extraordinary twist. The increasingly wealth-dependent American consumer never skipped a beat. In large part, that was because the equity bubble immediately morphed into an even more powerful strain of asset appreciation -- a sustained burst of US house price appreciation that has continued to this very day. As a result, the real-estate share of total household assets rose back to 30% -- recapturing its role as the consumer’s leading asset class. According to Alan Greenspan, American households currently own some $14 trillion in real estate -- almost double their total equity holdings (see his February 23, 2004 speech, "Understanding Household Debt Obligations," at the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C.).

This multi-bubble syndrome was largely an outgrowth of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive post-equity-bubble damage containment tactics -- some 550 bp of monetary easing from early 2001 through mid-2003. Housing markets benefited handsomely from the support of 45-year lows in interest rates. And consumers, who had first discovered the joys of asset-driven wealth effects during the stock market bubble of the late 1990s, quickly put their newfound skills to work in reaping the gains of the housing bubble. Not only did they benefit from the psychology of feeling wealthier, but US homeowners were aggressive in taking advantage of breakthroughs in the technology of home mortgage refinancing. It wasn’t just the reduction in interest expenses, but the so-called cash-outs from rapidly appreciating housing assets enabled consumers to uncover a new and important source of incremental purchasing power. Freddie Mac puts the peak rate of equity extraction and second mortgages from residential property at $224 billion in 2003 -- almost 3% of the total value of home equity investments. Over the 2001-04, annual cash-outs appeared to average around 2% of aggregate home equity -- suggesting that households may have liquidated as much as 8% of their equity in real estate in order to fund current consumption. For an aging US society that needs to build saving in order to fund the not-so-distant retirement of some 77 million baby-boomers, even this partial liquidation of asset-based saving is disturbing, to say the least.

The asset economy does not just have its origins in America. It is very much a by-product of support from global investors and policy makers. One of the outgrowths of an increasingly asset-dependent economy is a shortfall in income-based national saving. America has taken this shortfall to an unprecedented extreme. The net national saving rate -- the combined saving of consumers, businesses, and the government sector after deducting for the depreciation of worn-out capacity -- fell to a record low in the 1-2% range in 2003-04. Lacking in domestic saving, American has had to import foreign saving from abroad -- and run massive current account deficits to attract that capital.

This is where the global enablers enter the equation. First, it was private investors seeking to share in the returns of the world’s greatest productivity story. Then, when doubts surfaced on that front, foreign central banks rushed in to fill the void. Over the 12 months ending September 2004, the "official sector" accounted for 28% of total purchases of long-term US securities -- nearly double the 15% share over the prior 12 months and about four times the portion during the 2000-02 period. This was only the latest chapter in a foreign-inspired dollar-support campaign. Dollar-denominated official foreign exchange reserves surged from $1.1 trillion to $2.1 trillion over the 1998 to 2003 period (as estimated by the BIS at constant exchange rates). That left dollar-based assets with approximately a 70% weight in official reserve portfolios -- more than double America’s 30% share in the world economy and, quite possibly, the biggest overweight in world financial markets today.

Nor is it difficult to discern the motive behind this foreign dollar-buying binge. It’s all about the lack of internal demand in Asia and Europe and the related need to draw support from export-oriented growth strategies. And, of course, central to such growth tactics are cheap currencies that underwrite export competitiveness. Asia has led the way in that regard -- with hard currency pegs in China, Hong Kong, and Malaysia and soft currency pegs in Japan, Korea, India, Taiwan, Thailand, and Indonesia. Asia’s official foreign exchange reserves surged to $2.2 trillion by mid-2004 -- more than double the holdings of early 2000. With the bulk of that incremental surge going into dollars, Americans enjoy a subsidy to domestic interest rates that is very much made in Asia. It’s hard to quantify the exact magnitude of that subsidy but my guess is anywhere from 100 to 150 bp at the intermediate and long portions of the yield curve. That means, in the absence of this foreign support campaign, yields on 10-year Treasuries would have been in the 5 to 5.5% zone -- implying a rate structure that would have been far more problematic in providing valuation support to US asset markets and concomitant wealth-driven support to America’s asset-dependent consumer. With the dollar appreciating over most of the past decade, this was a win-win strategy for Asia -- providing the region with competitive currencies, as well as portfolio gains on dollar holdings. Now that the dollar is going the other way, that calculus suddenly looks very problematic.

As the world now grapples with the imperatives of rebalancing, it is important that all parties understand the roles they have played -- both in creating the problem and in forging the solution. Asset-dependent Americans truly have an excess consumption problem. It is still astonishing to me that the bursting of the equity bubble didn’t spawn a culture of prudence that weaned US consumers from the perils of an all too fickle wealth effect. With US house price inflation now at a 25-year high of 8.8% and with 15 states now experiencing double-digit house price inflation, this voracious appetite for risk is all the more

Neues Allzeithoch:

@ Schwabenpfeil

Gratuliere! Vor zwei Tagen hat du es geschafft 49 Beiträge in Englisch in ca. einer Stunde zu posten. Das dürfte einmalig sein im Deutschsprachigen Web. Heute sind es nur 26, aber der Tag ist ja noch lang. Bei soviel Kompetenz und Engagement schlage ich dich als Moderator vor!

Hallo Spancer,

danke für Deine Glückwünsche ! Versuchst wohl weiter mit Gewalt Zwietracht hier im Board zu schüren ???

Ich denke es ist besser, wenn ich mich eines persönlichen Kommentares enthalte. Dein Verhalten spricht für sich selber ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Hallo Spancer !

Kann mich dir nur anschließen.

Gruß Jürgen

Schwabenpfeil, wie du auf Kritik reagierst ist doch schon kindisch.
Vor kurzem das gleiche. Auf meinen Einwand: "Masse statt Klasse" kamen zig Re-Postings, Zitate-wer, was, wann gesagt hat usw. Auch alte Postings, welche Wochen alt sind, wurden hervorgekramt, ob sich nicht noch was gegen die bösen Kritiker verwenden lässt. Als noch eine kritische Stmme kam, wurde sogar mit völligem zurückziehen vom Forum "gedroht", vom rausekeln (o.ä.) usw.
Das ganze hast du auch noch vernünftiges ausdiskutieren genannt.

Jetzt wird sicher gleich wieder dein Zitate-button ins glühen kommen.

Was soll das Stänkern denn nun bringen,hört damit doch bitte auf,ihr habt doch eine Scroll Taste,oder?Wenn das Niveau hier wieder steigen soll,sollten wir auch alle Postings wenigstens akzeptieren,lasst gut sein.

Spancer freu mich, das Du überhaupt mal postest,mit Deinem Wissen könntest Du uns sicherlich wesentlich mehr Infos zur Verfügung stellen,musst du aber nicht.( F.H. ? )

Hier steckt soviel Potenzial,viele sind nur verunsichert,auf Grund von Niglichkeiten,mus dat Wirklich sein? Wir sind doch alle mal klein angefangen,lasst es uns einfach gemeinsam versuchen.Läuft doch teilweise sehr gut hier,Meine Herren.

Grüsse

Kalle

Heute im Spiegel:

Unser Währungssystem ist verkommen ?????

Interview mit Mundell

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/01518,330187,00.html

[quote]Original von midas
danke ageka,
verrätst Du, wo der Chart herkommt ?

Hallo Midas

Ich habe ein pc program lezte version ist Vision 2000
Ich habe auch ein fernsehe karte in pc
Jeden abend leest die karte fernsehe teletext und macht das program von alle daten die charts
Fur gold ist das London closing prices ( 18 00 hrs )
Ich brauche nur die linien zu ziehen understutsung und wiederstand
Habe da etwa 20 indicatoren die ich wahlen kann
Ich habe Anglo, Echo, Harmony,Goldfields , Durban , gold und dollar die aktiv analysiert sind
In principe habe ich alle Euronext charts aber die guecke ich nicht an
Habe nur goldminien am moment
Gruss
August

# All,
Unterstütze den Vorschlag Schwabenpfeil als Moderator, ist ernst gemeint und nicht ironisch.

gruß hpoth

Schließe mich meinem Vorredner bzgl der Moderator-Frage an !
Viele Grüße
Spieler0815

Ebenso!