Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Wednesday Dec. 1, 2004 – Issue 3048 "Independent View of the News"

Fortune Magazine, like many other pundits and fin media types, avers that the declining dollar is good for US exporters. As we stated in yesterday’s missive, this nonsense has been spewed for over three decades. The dollar was worth 357 yen at the end of 1971. The decline to the current Y102.77, let alone the drop to 80 in 1995, did little to rectify the US trade problem. We distinctly recall Lee Iacocca, then Ford’s CEO, screaming in the mid-‘80s, ‘Give me a 150 yen and I can compete with the Japanese automakers.’ Not too long after Lee’s bluster the dollar fell to 120. And how did that work out for Ford?

The three decade plus dollar decline versus Japan and other first world currencies has been accompanied by steady erosion in the US trade position. You’d think that three decades of data would be enough to dispel the conventional wisdom that the US, or any nation, can devaluate its way to prosperity.

When the dollar hits the alarm phase of a decline, which is usually about two-three years into a pronounced decline, there are always those that try to mitigate the extent of the dollar’s decline by comparing the dollar’s plight to some other country’s plight and declining currency. Sure, versus the peso, the dollar looks great. So what?

Prior to the open, more negative Wal-Mart news chilled the markets and thwarted the expected rally for month end. The China Business Weekly’s Jiang Jingjing reports, "Wal-Mart’s China inventory to hit US$18B this year - The world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc, says its inventory of stock produced in China is expected to hit US$18 billion this year, keeping the annual growth rate of over 20 per cent consistent over two years." http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e…-11/29/content_395728.htm

Yesterday Merrill said people are too optimistic about Intel’s prospects. Intel’s mid-quarter update is due after today’s close, so operators and investors figure Merrill knows something. We mentioned last week that DRAM prices had declined below their August low. Spot DRAM prices fell 16% in November. But as we keep harping, investors and operators have been eschewing fundamentals and adhering to technical/seasonal trading…PS – Several brokers and pundits promoted Intel before Merrill’s warning, saying they expect Intel to raise their estimates in the update. What are these people looking at?

All one needs to know about yesterday’s GDP figure is that according to US government economic statisticians, the US in Q3 had the lowest core inflation since the ‘60s. Core personal consumption expenditures are listed at +0.7%. This is so absurd, it defies comment. Yet many on The Street will not only swallow this pap, they will make decisions and invest clients’ money on this and similar bogus data.

Just last week, we saw a disturbing chart in Jim Bianco’s research that shows intermediate producer prices, ex-food and energy, at almost +8% y/y are near the all-time high annual ROC (+8.2%)……….

-END-

A currency heads-up from Down Under:

Hi Bill,
An interesting snippet out of Copenhagen and Saxo bank. Word is that the small FX traders are shorting the Euro but the big boys are looking at 1.40 SHORT TERM. How well does that correlate with the COT data showing the small specs are short gold?
Best,
Malcolm

Bergsten is no dummy:

Economists say dollar only halfway through its decline

By Corbett B. Daly, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:43 PM ET Nov 30, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Despite the steady decline in the U.S. dollar, the greenback is still only halfway through its adjustment to the level where it belongs to avoid a global economic crisis, a group of leading economists said in a new book released Tuesday.

"The exchange rate of the dollar is going to fall, that's what we have been seeing over the last three years, that's what we are arguing here will continue and the only issue is the extent to which and the mode to which it happens," said C. Fred Bergsten, a former Treasury official and co-editor of "Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What?"

Bergsten and his colleagues at the Institute for International Economics, a leading Washington think tank on currency matters, argue that the dollar should continue its fall in an orderly fashion, particularly against Asian currencies that have not appreciated against the dollar as dramatically as the euro and other western currencies.

The dollar's dramatic decline against the euro has been "extremely lopsided," holding its value more than it should have against Asian currencies, according to the book.

The dollar probed a low against the euro before rebounding Tuesday, in the wake of interest-rate comments from a top European official and release of a U.S. report that showed American consumer sentiment soured.

The euro was worth as much as $1.3331, its richest dollar value ever, before falling back slightly. Late in U.S. trade Tuesday, the euro was quoted at $1.3291, a gain of 0.2 percent against its U.S. counterpart compared with late U.S. trading on Monday.

The dollar hit fresh lows against the euro for four consecutive days last week after Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said foreigners might lose their appetite for dollar assets given the size of the U.S. current account deficit. Read more.

In the book, Bergsten and John Williamson argue that China, Japan and other Asian nations should stop intervening in exchange markets, limiting their participation in the adjustment process. Read more.

"East Asia must play a much bigger role, indeed we would say a dominant role, in the remaining second leg of the international adjustment of the dollar and the correction of the international imbalances," Bergsten said. The dollar hit its high against the euro in the summer of 2001.

The Bush administration has been publicly urging the Chinese government to move to a more flexible exchange rate regime. China has fixed its currency at roughly 8.3 yuan to the dollar since 1994. American manufacturers complain that the fixed Chinese exchange rate provides an unfair cost advantage to China's exports and is costing thousands of U.S. jobs.

The economists said the U.S. should drop its public insistence that the Chinese allow their currency to move toward a floating exchange rate and, instead, argue for a stronger, fixed yuan.

"Clearly we are not indifferent. We want it to go up," said Morris Goldstein, author of a chapter on China.

The Chinese should revalue their currency and institute a new peg at a higher value before moving to limited flexibility and then allowing the yuan to float freely on the currency markets.

"That's how most countries that have gone from a peg to a float without having a crisis as a part of the process have gone," Williamson said, adding that Colombia, Chile, Israel and Poland followed that pattern.

The problem, of course, is that a stronger yuan contradicts the so-called "strong dollar policy" espoused by Treasury Secretary John Snow and his spokesmen.

Jawboning the markets "is going to get a bad name and it may become ineffective in the future if the secretary of the Treasury continues to declare his support for a strong dollar, irrespective of the circumstances," Williamson said, adding "this is an instrument that also needs to be wielded with a certain amount of responsibility."

Michael Mussa, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said there had already been "enough" adjustment against the euro in the near-term.

"It would be useful as a matter of some urgency to get some movement in Asian exchange rates," Mussa said, adding that his former employer needs "to be substantially more active" in its oversight of exchange rate manipulation by member nations.

-END-

NEW YORK, N.Y., November 30, 2004 — The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., will begin holding an additional electronic trading session for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum futures on Fridays from 2 PM to 4:30 PM on December 3.

The current trading schedule is as follows:

Open outcry trading:
Gold futures: 8:20 AM to 1:30 PM
Silver futures: 8:25 AM to 1:25 PM
Copper futures: 8:10 AM to 1:00 PM
Aluminum futures: 7:50 AM to 1:15 PM

Electronic trading:
Gold, Silver, and Copper:
Sunday 7 PM to 8 AM
Monday through Thursday 2 PM to 8 AM
Aluminum:
Sunday 7 PM to 7:40 AM
Monday through Thursday 2 PM to 7:40 AM

-END-

On the lease rates:

Hi Bill:
There was a surge in silver lease rates of 20% in the near terms (from .20 to .25% in the near terms). Despite this, gold rates remain relatively high at only half of silver rates in the one and two month terms. Silver rates remain in incipient backwardation. Lease rates are still very low, as central banks attempt to encourage lease related selling but there are few takers, except those who wish to cap the price for monetary purposes and in silver, perhaps to use leased silver to satisfy delivery requirements on COMEX. With over 1000 contracts stopped, as much as 5 Moz is needed. I wish I could update this lease rate data more frequently, but Kitco source can go three or four days without updating their data.

Regards, Rhody.

The Wall Street crowd continues to serve me softballs to hit out of the park with their continuing, pathetic commentary on the gold market. Why are the gold shares doing so poorly? Here is one reason: Investors go to Citibank, Morgan Stanley and SocGen for advice like they do on GOOOOgle. This is another example of what the US investing public receives for feedback from a marcher in THE SENILE WALL STREET GOLD PARADE:

Gold to Average $410/oz This Year, $450 in 2005, SocGen Says

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices will average $410 an ounce this year, 13 percent higher than last year, and $450 in 2005, driven up by a weaker dollar, Societe Generale SA forecast.

A weakening dollar boosts the allure of dollar-denominated gold for investors looking to hedge against declines in U.S. assets and making gold cheaper to buy with other currencies. The metal has gained 12 percent over the past year as the euro has advanced 11 percent against the dollar.

``We expect the market to continue to be driven largely by non-physical investment demand, which may in turn continue to be dictated mainly by external factors, above all the direction of the U.S. dollar,'' the research unit of France's third-largest bank said in an e-mailed report.

The report also said silver will rise to average $6.70 an ounce this year, up from $4.89 in 2003, and $6.75 in 2005.

-END-

More DISINFORMATION. These people are an insult to real morons they are so inept!!!! The SocGen dunces ought to bring in John Brimelow as a consultant to prevent them from publishing this kind of garbage.

Some thoughts from Kangaroo country:

G'day Bill,
Yesterdays Market action was really odd.

Gold survived yet another "assignation job", to live another day. I do believe, however, that the "game" is not yet over.

The Markets are "running on empty", with only the Aussie one showing signs of life, but even that had a sell off yesterday and continues today.

The Gold price is now consolidating above US$450. The US$ Index is, however,
showing signs of real stress, and is trying to stay above the 80/81 level, trying to stay off an execution.

What I really astounding is that there is absolutely no sense of reality; what has value?

A couple of my Scots Mate who work in the Financial Markets are expecting a substantial rally in the US$ Index.

The US economy is riddled with credit and debt, and the longer this system tries to ward off real issues, the deeper it digs a hole for itself.

One must remember that China has mined Gold for at least 3,000 years, and currently produces the order of 3,000,000 million ounces per annum. They do not "export" Gold, so the simple question is - "Who has the Gold", and I would humbly suggest China!!!

In the recent Asean Conference in Chile, the Americans were reported to have
requested China to revalue their currency. The Chinese response was a polite but firm "No", and the Chinese were reported to have suggested that the Americans "sort out their mess".

The Americans do, however, continue to beieve that the world owes them a living?!

So where to from here?

Well, the article written by Ron Griess "Presenting a Positive Case for the Stock Market in 2005" at Goold Eagle:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/griess111004.html

And,

"Schwarzenegger Savages California, Aims at Presidency", at:

http://larouchepub.com/other/2004/3147arnie_for_pres.html

In 1980, when Reagan became President, and the Financial Markets were deregulated with the "Big Bang", this started 24 years of "you have never had it so good", the problem being that Credit and Debt were slowly but surely expanded, resulting the current mess.

Will 2005 to 2008, and beyond, be a mirror image of the Reagan years, with Schwarzenegger installed as President? Only time will tell.

This may be the shape of things to come. Where, but only in America, can "paper Dollars" be currency and an Austrian bid to become President???!!!

A sense of reality has surely become lost.

Yep, the "Loonies" are certainly running the Asylum. Talking about Loonies, I quote:

"I admired Hitler ... because he came from being a little man with almost no formal education, up to power. And I admire him for being such a good public speaker and for his way of getting to the people and so on...."—Arnold Schwarzenegger, in a 1977 interview with George Butler.

Perhaps Bill, you could compile all the GATA information, write a Screen Play, and get "old" Arnie to act in this movie, which would become a best seller, as it would have everything, including Arnie acting as "himself"!!!!

Hitler and Schwarzenegger do have one trait in common, they were/are both "Exterminators"; we certainly live in very strange times!!!???

Och aye,
Haggis

Turning to the San Fran gold show:

Bill,
I just left the IIC show in San Fran. I know these guys are your buds. (ha ha)

I took the opportunity to not only use our time there as a sponsor and speaker to educate Crowne Golds wares but also to try and educate the shareholders of the mines, and want to be mines, to STOP trading their dollars for shares of mine stocks, when the miners wont take the risk of holding some of their cash reserves in gold. Only fiat currencies are used for these mine company reserves. This does not support the gold industry nor does it support the shareholders and their hard earned investments.

I thought I would go "Murphy" on the management of Strat gold when they tried the bullcrap line on me that their investors did NOT want them to hold gold as a portion of their reserves. Huh? They were to ignorant to just say they did not know why they did not do this. I truly believe today’s gold miner is nothing more than a wall street paper whore who does not know how to mine for gold. They mine for paper in the form of debt instrument notes, notes with the faces of Presidents who would have shot the central bank establishment for treason against our once great land.

Shareholders should demand that the mines they are invested in hold gold instead of currencies no matter what currency. Shareholders should also demand that mines look seriously at using GOLD as a currency instead of politically issued fiat currency. This mentality of miners would be like an automakers executive management BOYCOTTING driving cars because the risk is to great for
After my speaking slot, many people visited our booth, looking to be proactive to diversify their money into Crowne Gold which can be used as money. The ignorance level of the American people is profound. The quote from Hitler stands true, "Leaders are fortunate the masses don’t think."

Keep up the good work. We will have our day to say I told you so. It will be gleefully enjoyable. Until then we must keep planting the seeds so we can sow the harvest.

Sean Trainor
Crowne Gold, the worlds
Easiest way to buy, sell,
store,and exchange gold and silver
http://www.crowne-gold.com
centcom@crowne-gold.com
0115076752730

Interesting input on ECU Silver:

Hi Bill:
I just checked ECU's short position as shown at stockwatch.com. Downloading all Venture Exchange companies' short position one gets 27 pages ordered by short position size. ECU is easy to find: it is on page 1 and is the 14th largest short position on the whole exchange. On October 15th, when ECU began its current private placement (PP) rounds, ECU had no shorts, zero, zip none. By the end of October the short position had gone to 227,500. By November 15th the short position had increased to 643,700, by far the largest short position for ECU since forever (2001).

Really looks stinky to me as it must have something to do with the Investment Bank (IB) arranging the PPs. I made an apology for the IB's the other day in a note to you but take it back. The three largest players in the stock have been TD Suckurities, Ntl. Bonk Fin. and WD LaLatimer. Often TD and NBF trade between themselves or cross with themselves. Refco came in this morning buying 60,000 right on the opening and pushing ECU to 34.5, mostly stopped by TD, if I recall correctly. At 11:51 Refco bought another 23,000 shares...from TD again and another 2,000 shares from...WD LaLatimer.

I do not pretend to know exactly what is going on, but it sure looks as though some IB's shorted the stock to squeeze ECU on its most recent attempt to deploy up to 12 million units. Selling shares into the market in order to participate in a private placement is one thing, but shorting them to record historical levels in order to squeeze a client (ECU) in need, certainly cannot be very kosher.

The flip side is when someone comes in to buy 200,000 shares at the market and catches the shorts off guard (the maximum offer on the books I have seen showing is 195,000 or so recently), the stock will catch fire.

Grrrrr.
All the best,
David.

My prediction is ECU Silver (34.5 cents Cdn) is a TEN BAGGER next year. That’s right. I predict it will up ten times by December 2005.

"Amazing disconnects"

Obviously, something out of the ordinary here. Shares vs. the metal and oil vs. gold. Still seeing a lot of put buying vs. calls on the option futures, especially in silver from Monday. It looks exponential. All of the short-term calls for a correction might prove to be the fuel here for it.

I don't know what it will take to get the shares moving, probably a move in gold vs. the stronger currencies. We've had perhaps three or four good closes in about a month and a half. Patience. Chuck

How about them gold shares! Yep, we live on a different planet. Gold and silver are in the process of one of the grandest moves in market history and:

*Long term gold bulls are mostly all short-term bearish. Had you asked them this weekend whether gold would continue to go a good deal higher or put in a substantial correction, 90% would have gone with the correction.

*Investors can’t wait to sell their gold and silver shares. Each day gold and silver go up they sell more not wanting to get caught in the INEVITABLE correction.

*There is almost no understanding in the gold world, much less the general public, of what this gold move is all about, aside from the fact gold is going up because the dollar is going down.

*Almost every firm on Wall Street has been neutral to bearish on gold for the entire $200 move up. They remain that way. UNBELIEVABLE how clueless, and or corrupt, the lot of them are.

Good grief, both the XAU and HUI closed lower with gold making 16-year highs. The XAU lost .04 to 106.71 and the HUI gave up .42 to 236.52. The nightmare continues. No way could I dream the shares acting this way with gold and silver taking off like they are.

Is there hanky-panky going on? Don’t know. Many Café members think so. A common feeling is The Gold Cartel is losing control of the physical market so they are sitting on the gold shares to dampen gold fever excitement. I am told that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been dressing down the Canadian gold shares, selling a 100 lot here and there on the closes.

Whatever is going on it has given impetus to growing depression among the gold and silver shareholders. All day long I was asked why these shares are stinking up the place. My take:

*Most of the gold camp is calling for a correction. Share buyers are waiting until we get one to step up to the plate.

*Most on Wall Street are neutral to bearish on gold. Why buy the shares at all? Based on their analyses, the gold and silver shares are better shorts than buys.

*Constant dissemination of gold disinformation (which is usually negative) by the US financial press has cooled investor interest.

*A number of hedge funds are long bullion and short the shares.

*The crummy price action is sending investors away in droves. The thinking is if the shares won’t go up when the prices of gold and silver are taking off, what will the shares do when both precious metals go through a normal correction?

*Probably some shorting by The Gold Cartel camp to gain this achieved effect.

*Who wants to be in the gold shares and miss out on the big DOW and DOG moves?

You are not alone either:

Hi Bill,
Just a note to let you know that you are not alone in your bewilderment. As I write this at 1240 PM e.s.t. silver is screaming up $00.35 and gold is up $3.80. However, the shares have been flushed to the sewer. Insanity! Me thinks the cartel has locked down the tiny share market through their many mutual fund holdings as retaliation for bullion breaking free of their grasp. These are horrible humans obsessed with power and getting their way. As the metals continue their rise, it won't take long for the shares to explode as even the cartel's efforts and a media obsessed with positive wall street spin can't overpower greed when it enters what remains of a free market.

The elitists have deceived the dumbed down masses so far, but when they wake up from this delusion and pursue the purchase of mining shares, it will be a sight to behold... Speaking of delusion, just turned off CNBC after about three minutes, which is all I can take, and heard that the DOW is rejoicing the lower oil price (up 126). What crap! The DOW only hears the good news and has a remarkable ability to ignore things such as auto sales down more than 7%, dismal holiday retail figures, dollar decline, etc, etc. Don't worry, be happy continues as the wall street mantra. Having been badly wounded with the decline in GSS because of their past quarter's loss, I continue to be amazed at the extreme over value of GOOG, SIRI, TASR, etc. Pundits report upon the mining shares being over valued, gold is always ready to correct, but the wall street darlings continue to soar with P/E's in the stratosphere. No one remembers the tech wreck of the recent past. Shame on them. This one is so over due it promises to be astronomical! I won't despair because I know the PMs will not be ignored, in spite of wall streets efforts to deceive, and when the metals right this wrong, it will be profoundly rewarding. Glad I found GATA, and know the truth, which is the most priceless commodity of all. All the Best Ten Horns!
Rich

Don’t know when this extraordinary apathy towards the gold shares will end. What I do know is it will and the resulting move will be nothing less than sensational. Gold producers are raking in the dough and the need to find gold and silver in the ground in a grand way will spur the explorations to great heights.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Yesterday I cut off part of the stock commentary sent to us by Chris Harris because it was so long. Here is some follow up:

Bill,
DTC is the Depository Trust Corporation, the clearing house for all the equity trades of broker-dealers in the industry. These are the guys we all entrust with clearing our stock transactions and delivering real stock from the seller when we buy equities. What the article means is that you may get real stock for your purchases, or you may get a counterfeit manufactured by the DTC. Since all the transactions are all electronic you have no way of knowing which is true, and your broker or custodial agent ain't about to tell you.

This is like getting a receipt that physical gold is on deposit in your account when it is not. Imagine if the Comex could with impunity inflate their warehouse stocks by electronic entry (you don't think they would ever do anything like that, would they? I would be shocked... shocked!) Your custodian is supposed be holding gold bars in your name... instead they have a piece of paper which they say is a gold bar.

Well here we have stock certificates that aren't stock certificates. So while their members and their members elite customers can use this bogus DTC stock to force down the price of any equity without limit, never having to produce real stock or even buy in their failure to deliver, when your brokerage firm fails in a crisis, the stock you "own" may turn out not to even be real stock! Meanwhile the DTC executives make out for producing extra revenues... that is, the fees for creating bogus stock. Heads you lose, tails they win. That's trillions with a T. And by the way there is an industry proposal afoot to eliminate all delivery of physical stock certificates to customers.
Here's there own self-description from their website:

http://www.dtcc.com/AboutUs/affiliates.htm

http://www.dtc.org

The Depository Trust Company (DTC) is a member of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, a limited-purpose trust company under New York State banking law and a registered clearing agency with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The depository brings efficiency to the securities industry by retaining custody of some 2 million securities issues, effectively "dematerializing" most of them so that they exist only as electronic files rather than as countless pieces of paper. The depository also provides the services necessary for the maintenance of the securities it has in custody.

National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC) is the oldest and, in terms of the transaction volumes it processes, by far the largest of the clearing corporations. NSCC provides clearing and settlement, risk management, central counterparty services and a guarantee of completion for trades involving equities, corporate and municipal debt, money market instruments, American depositary receipts, exchange-traded funds, unit investment trusts, mutual funds, insurance products and other securities. NSCC also nets trades and payments among its participants, reducing the volume and securities and payment that need to be exchanged by an average of 97% each day. NSCC generally clears and settles trades on a T+3 basis.

By the way Bill, check out the DTC Board. Talk about rounding up the usual suspects.

Bradley Abelow, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs (GS); Jonathan E. Beyman, Chief Information Officer, Lehman Brothers (LEH); Frank J. Bisignano, Chief Administrative Officer and Senior Executive Vice President, Citigroup / Solomon Smith Barney's Corporate Investment Bank (C); Michael C. Bodson, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley (MWD); Gary Bullock, Global Head of Logistics, Infrastructure, UBS Investment Bank (UBS); Stephen P. Casper, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer, Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc.; Jill M. Considine,Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC);

Also, Paul F. Costello, President, Business Services Group, Wachovia Securities (WB); John W. Cummings, Senior Vice President & Head of Global Technology & Services, Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER); Donald F. Donahue, Chief
Operating Officer, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC); Norman Eaker, General Partner, Edward Jones; George Hrabovsky, President, Alliance Global Investors Service; Catherine R. Kinney, President and Co-Chief Operating Officer, New York Stock Exchange; Thomas J. McCrossan, Executive Vice President, State Street Corporation (STT); Eileen K. Murray, Managing Director, Credit Suisse First Boston (CSR); James P. Palermo, Vice Chairman, Mellon Financial Corporation (MEL); Thomas J. Perna, Senior Executive Vice President, Financial Companies Services Sector of The Bank of New York (BNY); Ronald Purpora, Chief Executive Officer, Garban LLC; Douglas Shulman, President, Regulatory Services and Operations, NASD; and Thompson M. Swayne, Executive Vice President, JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

Regards,
Çhris

link to analysis of SEC proposal to outlaw ownership of physical stock certificates
http://www.investigatethesec.com/FW9.html

Genau!

Arnold Schwarzenegger als nächster Präsident der USA. Das wird uns wohl ins Haus stehen. Da bin ich fast sicher.

Gruß
mvd

ein Schauspieler als Präsident?
Wer kann sich das schon vorstellen?

Zitat

Original von midas
at ageka

Merci, entscheidest Du nach Deinen Charts?

Gruss midas, z.Z. Brüssel

Da ich glaube das dies ein bullmarket ist verkaufe ich ein drittel wie
Jim Sinclair vorschlagt wann die charts mir das sagen
(ist mir bisher gut gelungen)
Aber bisher habe ich immer zu schnell zuruckgekauft

Zitat

Original von mvd
Genau!

Arnold Schwarzenegger als nächster Präsident der USA. Das wird uns wohl ins Haus stehen. Da bin ich fast sicher.

Gruß
mvd

Soviel ich weiß, ist das aber nicht möglich, weil Arnie doch gar kein Ami ist, oder?
Aber möglicherweise wird dann die Verfassung geändert, wenn's den Herren hinter den Kulissen in den Kram passt.
Ein Österreicher an der Macht - wow, das hatten wir im alten Europa schon mal.

Grüße

extrel

# option63,

hatten wir doch schon einaml denke doch an Roland Regan!!

gruß hpoth

hpoth,
das war Ironie.
(Hab auch schon einen seiner schlechten Western gesehen)

#Hallo option 63,

habe ich auch so verstanden,seine schlechte Western habe ich auch gesehen.Aber erst der Rambo Scharzenegger der ist ja noch schlimmer.

gruß hpoth

Trichet sieht Inflationsrisiken und betont Wachsamkeit der EZB
Donnerstag 2 Dezember, 2004 15:09 CET

Frankfurt (Reuters) - Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat zwar noch immer keinen grundlegenden Inflationsdruck in der Euro-Zone ausgemacht, bleibt aber höchst wachsam über Gefahren für die Preisstabilität.

Kurzfristig sei die Aussicht für die Preisstabilität bedenklich, sagte EZB-Präsident Jean-Claude Trichet am Donnerstag vor der Presse in Frankfurt. Die Ölpreise ließen die Jahresteuerung noch eine Weile über zwei Prozent verharren, im Lauf des nächsten Jahres sei aber ein Rückgang unter diese Schwelle zu erwarten. Dennoch werde die EZB die Risiken für die Preisstabilität weiter wachsam beobachten. Trichet wies zudem auf die Abschwächung des Wachstums im zweiten Halbjahr hin, gab sich aber zuversichtlich, dass die schrittweise Konjunkturerholung anhalten werde.

Die EZB ließ den Leitzins in der Euro-Zone wie erwartet angesichts wachsender Unsicherheit über die Konjunkturaussichten und des begrenzten Preisauftriebs erneut unverändert bei 2,00 Prozent. Die meisten Volkswirte rechnen frühestens im zweiten Halbjahr 2005 mit einer ersten Zinserhöhung. Noch vor einem Monat hatten viele auf das erste Halbjahr getippt. Seither sind jedoch einige Konjunkturdaten schwach ausgefallen, und der erneute starke Anstieg des Euro auf Rekordkurse über 1,33 Dollar könnte die Exportwirtschaft belasten. Auch der hohe Ölpreis bremst die Wirtschaft, auch wenn er sich gegenüber seinem Rekordhoch inzwischen um rund zehn auf 41 Dollar je Barrel verbilligt hat. Im dritten Quartal war die Wirtschaft im Euro-Raum nur noch um 0,3 Prozent gewachsen nach 0,7 und 0,5 Prozent in den beiden Vorquartalen.

http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=631759&section=news

A Shock
Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
December 2, 2004

Extracted from the December 1st, 2004 edition of Richard's Remarks

Martin Wolf in today's Financial Times heads his always brilliant column, "Why America is Switching to a Weak Dollar Policy." Sub-title -- "The present path is unsustainable, since both the current account deficit and external liabilities are on an explosive upwards trajectory." And I quote from Wolf's column, "How far might the dollar fall? By as much as 50% from its peak, in trade-weighted nominal terms, suggest two distinguished international economists, Maurice Obstfeld of Cal Berkeley and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard. Up to now, the fall has just been 17% on a broad trade-weighted basis. More, it seems, is on the way."

The Wolf column ends, "To bring about a substantial reduction in the external debt without a deep recession, the US needs a huge change in internal relative prices. If the financing of the deficit is indeed in doubt, a weak dollar is a certainty. Hard currency enthusiasts may want the US to choose a depression instead, or hope the deficit can grow without limit. Neither position is sensible. Big adjustments in the dollar's real value are a certainty. The only questions are when how, and how much."

Russell Comment -- Above is the hard-core, totally realistic view of the situation. Either the US takes a severe recession (which will result in a major reduction in spending) or the dollar must take the fall. At this point, it appears almost certain, to me, that the Fed and the Administration are willing to let the dollar take the fall. This will mean ultimately higher interest rates, and then the question is whether higher rates will bring on a recession anyway. In the meantime, US consumers continue to spend while their saving rate drops to almost zero. It's a barrel of fun while it lasts!

What does it mean for you and me when the dollar falls on a trend basis? It means that on an international or global basis, you and I are getting poorer. You don't believe it? Take a trip overseas and see what your dollars buy today, compared with what they bought a year or so ago.

What about stocks? Right now stocks are considered assets -- and the market is saying, "Buy anything, buy gold, buy silver, buy a house, buy stocks, buy diamonds, buy a Picasso -- buy any damn thing but get out of dollars!"

But what about declining stock profits? The hell with that -- just get out of dollars, and stocks are assets.

Amazing. It's come almost as a shock. "What, the Fed and the Administration are giving their blessing to a collapse in the dollar's international value! How can they do that? How could it happen? And me, sitting here with cash. Quick, tell me where to spend it. What should I buy?"

It's as if suddenly, the unconscious of investors and the markets recognize what I've said above. Now there's a panic for non-dollar assets. When you get this kind of situation, and they're rare, emotions take over and technical analysis or any other kind of serious analysis becomes almost useless. This market has turned very emotional, and emotional markets are the most treacherous. They can turn on a dime, or they can keep going. They "force you," they "beckon to you" to run with the crowd. That's what we've got now. Enjoy it or avoid it. It's here.

Gold/Silver -- The chart below shows the ratio of silver to gold. When the ratio rises, it means that silver is outperforming gold. Some pros play this ratio. They'd now be buying silver futures and shorting gold futures. I don't play this game -- too tough. Since June 3, 2004, silver has been outperforming gold. On one level, this is an indication of rising speculation in the metals. Silver is often referred to as "the poor man's gold."

One difference is that the US government's stock of silver is gone. Silver, unlike gold, is actually used up in manufacturing. There's now a net shortage of silver. On the other hand, in a bear market silver can be viewed as an industrial metal, which is never the case with gold.

Personally I like both metals and I like platinum and uranium.

But you can't be everywhere, so I still go to gold.
more follows for subscribers . . .

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
© Copyright 2004 Dow Theory Letters, Inc.

December 2 – Gold $449.90 down $3.50 – Silver $7.90 down 11 cents

Five O'clock Charlie

It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." - Samuel Adams

Too good to be true. That’s what I thought to myself last night as gold took out $456 to the upside. Excitement was starting to build and that is a no-no as far as the heinous Gold Cartel is concerned. It didn’t take long for that concern to be reflected in the gold price.

What gets me is how obvious this charade of a free market is and none of the dolts who report on the gold market ever discuss the reality about what keeps happening. The modus operandi of the gold terrorists is plain as day. Once again the bums attacked after the PM Fix, after the physical buyers around the world had priced their orders.

AM: $454.35
PM: $454.20

You would think someone in the mainstream gold world would notice this frequent and consistent pattern. Nope, not a chance. Either that, or they have been told to keep quiet. Another example of our wonderful free press in the West.

What a tale of two worlds we have here. I’m referring to the gold share market versus the physical market. You would think gold just took out $400 on the downside by watching the share action. Depression and disbelief is everywhere. How can it not be? Yet, what can anyone expect? Almost every pundit out there is calling for a correction. No way the gold shares can go up with long-term gold bull commentators mostly short-term bearish and with the general public clueless thanks to the analysis coming from the gold bullion dealer pros on Wall Street. They are not only short-term bearish, but neutral to bearish for all of next year.

Meanwhile, the cash market is on fire (see JB again). AND a quick perusal of the gold chart reveals a market going straight up without any serious correction as of yet. All dips have been brief and shallow. Those who are long gold futures and gold coins have been cleaning up for months, with long positions established months ago not close to being threatened.

What does all this mean? Very little as far as the big picture is concerned. Mob psychology can do strange things to markets. Think back to the late 1990’s when the DOG made like the Energizer Bunny and kept going and going and going – finally taking out 5,000. For months and months my colleagues and I muttered to each other that it made no sense. It didn’t of course and the DOG collapsed to 1300 and change.

This is what we have going on with the gold and silver shares. This lousy action is completely irrational, yet there it is. Bottom line: patience is called for. Fortunes will be made next year.