Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Five O'clock Charlie

From MIDAS commentary on November 10 with gold at $433.70:

5 o'clock Charlie

I wonder how many of your subscribers remember "5 o'clock Charlie", the North Korean pilot, flying an old, misfiring, piston engined fighter in the MASH tv series. In one episode, he showed up regularly at 5 o'clock to try and bomb an ammo dump next to the MASH. He always missed!

Watching the gold cartel at work is just like watching 5 o'clock Charlie now

Good afternoon Bill
He's still flying, though despite oil trading at (only) $44.00 a barrel as I write, it would seem he can't afford a full tank these days.

Those who follow your work know that there are consistent and hard efforts to depress/cap the $gold price, especially after the London pm fix.

With gold dropping nearly $4 in the last 20 minutes after the pm fix, you don't have to be Dick Tracy to work out that Charlie is still flying. If you want proof that similar activity takes place in the gold stocks look at the attached one minute chart of Gold Fields. Did someone make a few 'phone calls?

On a different issue. Rick Santelli (one of the few decent commentators on CNBC) said that the WSJ would be carrying an article in tomorrow's issue on why the US trade deficit was important for Europe and it would be well worth reading. The anchorperson, Liz Klamen, said she wouldn't read it because she would be too busy Christmas shopping. Why do I get the strong feeling that the one and only qualification for a CNBC presenter is the ability to read a teleprompter?
Keep up the good work
Ian

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/SharpChartv05.jpg]

Chuck checks in:

Bill:
I am just running out but I felt I should comment on the continuing weakness in the shares. To those who are very concerned about the underwhelming performance of the share market, I just want to refer you to a longer term view of the HUI. Please note that back in 2002 we had a large almost 14 month correction in the shares after they had had a fairly spectacular run. We had a series of sell offs before the HUI moved up almost 100%. The pattern of the past year has followed the other one very closely, which is a little unusual. Please look at this chart closely and notice the similarity.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/big.jpg]

We are obviously in some kind of shift here, most likely a shift to a stabilizing or perhaps even a rising dollar. The weakness of the dollar recently has not really benefited the gold shares because if they are Canadian or South African, the price in their currencies have not risen. One day, gold will rise against every currency as the pressure to depreciate all currencies to survive the disaster coming down the pike increases. This will probably be the backdrop of the next and most spectacular move in gold and the shares.

Please try to remember your feelings last year and back in 2002 as the shares swooned, and sometimes without having gold weakening. The same may be true right now. This too will pass. We are in the very infancy of a great cyclical bull market in precious metals, and as I believe, in an exponential or parabolic rate. Also, sooner or later we will have the benefit of a crash in all other assets, especially the stock market and the real estate sector. Unlike back in the early 1970's we have not seen this. But this also is certain. This require patience and understanding of the monetary mess and how markets behave. That is why so few people make money in the stock market. Chuck

The next gold ETF:

SEC REGISTRATION - Barclays Files with SEC New Gold ETF IPO on the AMEX ("iShares COMEX(R) Gold Trust") Symbol: IAU - "Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public: As soon as practicable after this Registration Statement becomes effective"

***

Some musings from the SF Gold Show....

Hi Bill,
Some additional observations, impressions from the iiconf sponsored Gold Show in San Francisco this last weekend (I attended both days).

One of the presentations I caught was by a recently formed company with a mine scheduled to come online in late summer 2005. I was actually napping a little, but almost fell out of my chair when the speaker began discussing the hedge position they had established to placate the bank that was providing the financing. Not just a small hedge, they sold forward a decent fraction of their reserves. "Caveat Emptor" is the word for gold shareholders. The totals of ounces sold forward by the industry may be on the decline, but new hedging hasn't stopped all together!

On the lighter side, I brought along a beautiful proof Silver coin (0.999 pure) for some "show and tell". When I show coins to people "off the street", most all respond with a puzzled expression as if it were doggie duty or something. It was surprising how many industry people at the show responded in much the same way. I'll grant you that many exploration companies have only recently expanded enough to hire IR people, and many of those folks are new to the precious metals world.

On another occasion, there happened to be an elderly woman of Asian descent standing nearby. When I pulled out the coin, her tired looking face lit up like a search light in a blink of an eye. She immediately struck up a conversation wondering where I had bought it, price, etc. Her enthusiasm highlighted the east vs. west cultural attitudes towards the real thing vs. paper promises. With this sort of attitude literally a world away, it's easy to forget that this is one of the important dynamics behind the current move. As John Brimelow and others have pointed out, demand for the real thing from India and the east is what has put a floor under this market.

As others have reported, I don't recall meeting a single person at the show who was short term bullish, the skepticism of the current move was universal and predictable.
John P

On Treasury Secretary Snow and cartels:

Bill:
Things are hurting today in the shares and elsewhere. An attempt to confirm that the shares lead the physical? Anyway, a real pita.

Apropros your frequent recitation of cartel instances and rants about the inadequacies of journalists, I thought you would be interested in the following quote from lead editorial in WSJ of 11/23/2004 (p.A18), made in the course of seeking to rein in Treas. Sec. Snow's talk about exchange rates:

"Mr. Snow is also fond of repeating the nonsense that exchange rates should be set by "market" forces. However, a currency isn't just another commodity, like wheat or copper; it is a store of value. And unlike other commodities, its supply is determined by a central bank, in the U.S. by the Federal Reserve, which has a monopoly on dollar creation. The global currency markets are dominated by a cartel of central banks, and currency values are a function of their relative monetary policies. Isn't a Treasury Secretary supposed to know that?"

There's much in this paragraph that astounds me to see spewing from the paper that I once thought prided itself on defending free markets, but clearly has long given up the fight against this kind of central planning to enrich itself by not kicking against these particular jerks. Yes, currencies are a special kind of commodity and should act like a store of value, but how is that possible when more of them (unlike the precious metals) can be created at will? And while one must applaud the candor and clarity of the second sentence's recognition that the dollar's "supply is determined by a central bank, which has a monopoly on its creation," I wold have thought such a statement deserved condemnation upon utterance rather than being passed without further comment. And finally the recognition of a global cartel. All of which is to say that if the central banks reflect in part the aims of its member banks and political patrons, and if the currency markets are "dominated" by cartel members, should it be any surprise to conclude that if gold is a shadow currency, the gold market is similarly "dominated?" I take hope, however, from "dominance" not implying 100%, and am hopeful that the very weight of the dollar's dominance in global foreign exchange will be its undoing.

Keep up the good work.
Peter Berry

Anyone know the skinny on this:

BILL…WROTE YOU YESTERDAY WITH THE INFO THAT MY COIN DEALER SAID NO 1 OUNCE EAGLES COMING FROM MINT…FIRST TIME EVER! I SPOKE TO MINT THIS MORNING…JUST THE RUN AROUND AS TO IF THIS WAS TRUE. NOTE BELOW FROM MINT’S WEBSITE THAT EVEN PROOFS ARE ‘NOT AVALIABLE’!
PLEASE REPLY…HAVE YOU HEARD OF THIS? IS IT TRUE? IF SO, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS?
THANKS
BOBBY ELLERBEE

Hey Bill,

I didn't think there was anyone left to sell out of their pm shares, but they're knocking down the exit doors. Maybe it's us that are insane? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome from the cartel controlled market. Gold is about 7% higher than it was on April 1, 2004 (before that takedown) but I am down 15% in my portfolio from then. And, it's dropping as we speak. Today's simultaneous move lower in silver, gold, and the shares is no coincidence. The bullion started out strong, silver shares were moving up nicely, then suddenly turned down much sooner than the actual metal price did. Must be nice to have that kind of inside information, to sell after a nice bump up, knowing a takedown was coming. But, we have free markets... and I believe in the tooth fairy.
Rich

When I begin to receive emails such as this one, you know we are close to a gold share bottom:

"My friends have all sold their gold shares and bought the ETF. Why are you in denial?"

Meanwhile, the gold shares show no sign of recovery. The XAU lost 3.50 to 103.21, while the HUI gave up 9.63 to 226.89. It easily took out its chart uptrend.

One day in the near future this gold share selling madness will end. Just not there yet. Next year this will seem like a bad dream.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

From a veteran Café member and GATA supporter – particularly appropriate today for those bummed out over the gold/silver share mess:

Heather,
I like and admire the quote below for several reasons, not the least of which is another "Howard Zinn" is a famous bicycle frame builder and you know my passion for cycling. Never EVER giving up is a golden rule of sports as well. It became my mantra after 15 years of bike racing, season in, season out, never finishing better than 6th, 15th or even 30th in a 60 to 100 man field, this dog finally had his day. One first place finish 3 minutes ahead of the chase group, 7 minutes ahead of the field, I know well the benefit of never giving up. Odds against me big time with 15 times national champion and 4 time Olympian in the field and many more who could drop me convincingly in a final sprint, my time did finally come.
I'll pass this along to Bill Murphy. I think he'll enjoy it as well. Ex-pro football player and contrarian (sp?) thinker extraordinaire. It seems quite appropriate for Midas at LeMetropoleCafe.com. We'll see.
Best as always,
Peter

THE OPTIMISM OF UNCERTAINTY by Howard Zinn

In this awful world where the efforts of caring people often pale in comparison to what is done by those who have power, how do I manage to stay involved and seemingly happy? I am totally confident not that the world will get better, but that we should not give up the game before all the cards have been played. The metaphor is deliberate; life is a gamble. Not to play is to foreclose any chance of winning. To play, to act, is to create at least a possibility of changing the world.

There is a tendency to think that what we see in the present moment will continue. We forget how often we have been astonished by the sudden crumbling of institutions, by extraordinary changes in people's thoughts, by unexpected eruptions of rebellion against tyrannies, by the quick collapse of systems of power that seemed invincible.

What leaps out from the history of the past hundred years is its utter unpredictability. A revolution to overthrow the czar of Russia, in that most sluggish of semi-feudal empires, not only startled the most advanced imperial powers but took Lenin himself by surprise and sent him rushing by train to Petrograd. Who would have predicted the bizarre shifts of World War II--the Nazi-Soviet pact (those embarrassing photos of von Ribbentrop and Molotov shaking hands), and the German Army rolling through Russia, apparently invincible, causing colossal casualties, being turned back at the gates of Leningrad, on the western edge of Moscow, in the streets of Stalingrad, followed by the defeat of the German army, with Hitler huddled in his Berlin bunker, waiting to die?

And then the postwar world, taking a shape no one could have drawn in advance: The Chinese Communist revolution, the tumultuous and violent Cultural Revolution, and then another turnabout, with post-Mao China renouncing its most fervently held ideas and institutions, making overtures to the West, cuddling up to capitalist enterprise, perplexing everyone. No one foresaw the disintegration of the old Western empires happening so quickly after the war, or the odd array of societies that would be created in the newly independent nations, from the benign village socialism of Nyerere's Tanzania to the madness of Idi Amin's adjacent Uganda. Spain became an astonishment. I recall a veteran of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade telling me that he could not imagine Spanish Fascism being overthrown without another bloody war. But after Franco was gone, a parliamentary democracy came into being, open to Socialists, Communists, anarchists, everyone.

The end of World War II left two superpowers with their respective spheres of influence and control, vying for military and political power. Yet they were unable to control events, even in those parts of the world considered to be their respective spheres of influence. The failure of the Soviet Union to have its way in Afghanistan, its decision to withdraw after almost a decade of ugly intervention, was the most striking evidence that even the possession of thermonuclear weapons does not guarantee domination over a determined population.

The United States has faced the same reality. It waged a full-scale war in Indochina, conducting the most brutal bombardment of a tiny peninsula in world history, and yet was forced to withdraw. In the headlines every day we see other instances of the failure of the presumably powerful over the presumably powerless, as in Brazil, where a grassroots movement of workers and the poor elected a new president pledged to fight destructive corporate power.

Looking at this catalogue of huge surprises, it's clear that the struggle for justice should never be abandoned because of the apparent overwhelming power of those who have the guns and the money and who seem invincible in their determination to hold on to it. That apparent power has, again and again, proved vulnerable to human qualities less measurable than bombs and dollars: moral fervor, determination, unity, organization, sacrifice, wit, ingenuity, courage, patience--whether by blacks in Alabama and South Africa, peasants in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Vietnam, or workers and intellectuals in Poland, Hungary and the Soviet Union itself. No cold calculation of the balance of power need deter people who are persuaded that their cause is just I have tried hard to match my friends in their pessimism about the world (is it just my friends?), but I keep encountering people who, in spite of all the evidence of terrible things happening everywhere, give me hope. Especially young people, in whom the future rests. Wherever I go, I find such people. And beyond the handful of activists there seem to be hundreds, thousands, more who are open to unorthodox ideas. But they tend not to know of one another's existence, and so, while they persist, they do so with the desperate patience of Sisyphus endlessly pushing that boulder up the mountain. I try to tell each group that it is not alone, and that the very people who are disheartened by the absence of a national movement are themselves proof of the potential for such a movement.

Revolutionary change does not come as one cataclysmic moment (beware of such moments!) but as an endless succession of surprises, moving zigzag toward a more decent society. We don't have to engage in grand, heroic actions to participate in the process of change. Small acts, when multiplied by millions of people, can transform the world. Even when we don't "win," there is fun and fulfillment in the fact that we have been involved, with other good people, in something worthwhile. We need hope.

An optimist isn't necessarily a blithe, slightly sappy whistler in the dark of our time. To be hopeful in bad times is not just foolishly romantic. It is based on the fact that human history is a history not only of cruelty but also of compassion, sacrifice, courage, kindness. What we choose to emphasize in this complex history will determine our lives. If we see only the worst, it destroys our capacity to do something. If we remember those times and places--and there are so many--where people have behaved magnificently, this gives us the energy to act, and at least the possibility of sending this spinning top of a world in a different direction. And if we do act, in however small a way, we don't have to wait for some grand utopian future. The future is an infinite succession of presents, and to live now as we think human beings should live, in defiance of all that is bad around us, is itself a marvelous victory.
Peace.

PETER STOCK PRESS, INC.
555 Fulton Street, Suite 209
San Francisco, CA 94102

>Gold relativ stabil , nachdem Öl und Industriemetalle fallen. Korrektur bei Öl zeigt, daß Rohstoffwerte trotz sinkenden Dollars fallen können. Kupfer um 4,8% in 24 Stunden gefallen. Bislang sind solche Ausverkäufe kurzfristig gewesen, allerdings könnte der sinkende Dollar eine Abschwächung des Wirtschaftswachstums andeuten, was für die Industriemetalle negativ wäre<

Sally Malay hat´s auch ordentlich erwischt.

03/12/2004 09:21:00
Gold holds relatively steady after industrial metals and oil slide
TheBullionDesk – Gold prices are trading below Thursday’s highs, but prices have so far found support around $448.50’s. However, industrial metals took the lead from oil, which started falling on Wednesday. The correction in oil has highlighted the fact that commodity prices can fall even if the dollar is declining. The industrial metals followed oil lower yesterday and copper this morning was trading some $150/tonne below Thursday’s opening price levels. A fall of some 4.8% in 24 hours.

Previously such sell-offs in the metals have been short-lived and time will now tell whether this is the start of a larger correction ahead of year-end or whether it was just a one profit-take that has run into good underlying physical buying. However, for some time, there has been a worry that a weaker dollar may undermine global business confidence and the economic growth outlook, which would be negative for industrial metals.

Silver has fallen back swiftly from its peak yesterday at $8.16/oz - $8.18/oz, with prices now trading either side of $7.83/oz, so it would appear that Silver is suffering along with the industrial metals at the moment. Gold on the other hand is holding up relatively well so far, but then if traders are liquidating the other commodity positions and are still concerned about the dollar, then gold may well provide a safe-haven. That said, the fund position in gold is still large and some profit-taking would not be surprising. If the correction in the metals sees follow through liquidation selling, then we would expect gold to suffer the least.

William Adams
TheBullionDesk

In ca. 10 Minuten Arbeitsmarktdaten in den USA. Mal sehen, wie´s weiter geht. Konsensus waren ca. 200.000 neue Jobs im November.

US-Arbeitsmarktdaten: +112.000 (statt erwarteter 200.000)

Indische Goldnachfrage sehr stark

Gold demand surges 28% in July-Sept
INDRA BHADRA
....

The rising gold prices in July-September ’04 did not deter buyers in India, the world’s largest consumer, with net consumer demand 16% higher in tonnage terms (28% higher in rupee terms) than during the same period in ’03.

For the nine-month period of January-September ’04, gold consumption in India increased by 9.5% in tonnage terms and 20% in rupee terms, the report said.

Consumer demand of the yellow metal during the quarter totalled 151.6 tonnes, compared to 131 tonnes in the year-ago period. In rupee terms, total consumer demand for gold was Rs 901.3 crore as against Rs 702.3 crore in July-September ’03, according to WGC submission.

Asked about surge in demand despite a record high prices, Sanjeev Agarwal, managing director, (Indian sub-continent), World Gold Council, said “The upward trend in the price during July-September period does not seem to have deterred jewellery purchasers in India.”

He said the reports from domestic markets indicate that buyers are not only accustomed to prices in excess of $400 per ounce, but also that they are prepared for possible further price rises.
......
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/944427.cms

Head & Shoulders?
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.uudo.de/wiki/uploads/CrudeOil.jpg]

http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/…&ChartHoehe=270&Ts=292624

Und was macht Gold???

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.uudo.de/wiki/uploads/Gold_2004-12-03.jpg]

Wenn das die von den "Experten" viel beschworene und bevorstehende Korrektur bei Dollar und bei Gold war, dann ein dickes Dankeschön für die vielen warnenden Hinweise.
Ich denke eher, es war wohl wieder mal Zeit, dass diese "Experten" ihr Können unter Beweis stellen wollten. Nur leider (für diese Fachidioten) ging es wie immer in die Hosen.
Gold geht nahe dem 16 Jahreshoch aus dem Wochenhandel (455,9) - Silber steht bei 8 Dollar und der Dollar ist schwach wie selten.

Gut für uns kleinen Autodidakten.

ps; ich wäre dafür, das Wort "Experten" als Unwort des Jahres zu wählen.
Gäbe es die Wahl zur Un-einleitung des Jahrzehnts, dann hätte: "Nach Expertenmeinung" sehr gute Chancen vorn zu stehen.

Alles wartet auf die Korrektur, die Minenwerte sind vorsorglich schon in die Knie gegangen. Wäre lustig, wenn der Goldpreis weiter nach oben durchmarschierte.

Heute hat sich wieder einmal gezeigt, daß Bush unnachsichtig seine Politik des starken Dollars fortsetzt:

ftd.de, Fr, 3.12.2004, 20:08
Euro überspringt 1,34-Dollar-Hürde

Der Euro hat nach den schwachen Arbeitsmarktdaten aus den USA deutlich zugelegt und erstmals die Marke von 1,34 $ genommen. Händler und Analysten sind sich einig, dass der Höhenflug der jungen Währung vor allem eine Folge der Dollar-Schwäche ist.

Am Freitagabend erreichte der Euro den Rekordstand von 1,3457 $. Händler und Analysten sagten, die Investoren seien der Auffassung, dass die US-Regierung zur Finanzierung der Doppeldefizite im US-Staatshaushalt und vor allem in der Leistungsbilanz einen niedrigen Dollarkurs braucht.

Nach Informationen der "Börsen-Zeitung" wollen die USA noch einen weitaus niedrigeren Dollarkurs tolerieren. Man werde frühestens bei einem Eurokurs von 1,45 $ an Stützungskäufe denken, berichtet die Zeitung in ihrer Samstagausgabe unter Berufung auf einen hohen Mitarbeiter des US-Finanzministeriums. US-Finanzminister John Snow habe die langfristigen Gefahren der Defizite in Haushalt und Leistungsbilanz erkannt und akzeptiere, dass Wechselkursanpassungen zu den "effektivsten Instrumenten" zählten, um zumindest das Leistungsbilanzdefizit allmählich abzubauen.

Snow äußert zwar öffentlich, die USA seien an einem starken Dollar interessiert. Bei Volkswirten hat sich aber längst die Auffassung durchgesetzt, die USA nähmen in der Praxis die aktuelle Dollarschwäche wohlwollend hin.

Ein Dollar kostet derzeit etwa 74,50 Euro-Cent. Damit ist die US-Währung für Bundesbürger ungefähr so günstig wie zuletzt im Frühjahr 1996 mit rund 1,4570 DM je Dollar. Sein tiefstes Niveau zur Deutschen Mark hatte der Dollar im März 1995 mit rund 1,3450 DM erreicht, was etwa 68,80 Euro-Cent oder umgekehrt ausgedrückt rund 1,46 Dollar je Euro entspricht.

1,46 - bis dahin ist dann auch pro aurum pleite.

Hallo Ulfur,

du hast geschrieben, "Alles wartet auf die Korrektur, die Minenwerte sind vorsorglich schon in die Knie gegangen. Wäre lustig, wenn der Goldpreis weiter nach oben durchmarschierte."

Ich für meinen Teil finde das wenig lustig. Wenn die Minen dem Goldkurs vorauslaufen, werden wir beim Goldkurs noch einen hübschen Crash erleben. Das wird die Goldbesitzer vielleicht freuen, wenn sie günstig nachkaufen können, aber solche wie ich, die nur Aktien haben, haben alle Hände voll zu tun. Sicher, ich kann auch bei den Minen günstig einsteigen, aber das mit dem richtigen Zeitpunkt ist halt so eine Sache.

Was sagt Patrone, unser Minenexperte, zum derzeitigen Massaker? (zumindest ist es das für mein Depot)

cu

extrel

#extrel,

Ich habe einige Positionen mit einer Stop-Loss Marke versehen und bin fast überall ausgestoppt worden mit Gewinn halt 10% weniger als vorher ,aber immerhin noch ein guten Gewinn erzeiehlt. Halte jetzt erstmal Cash, denn Geld das arbeitet braucht auch mal eine Pause.
gruß hpoth

Mal eine Frage: Warum sollen die Minen ein vorlaufender Indikator sein?
(zumindest kurzfristig?)
Es wäre schön, wenn mir dafür jemand eine plausible Erklärung geben kann.