Then again:
Hi Bill,
All week long the price of Gold have been dancing around the $450 mark. The failure to break this important $450 mark and its overbought condition proves to many Gold advisors that a top must be here. What also strikes me is that so many Gold advisors are referring to April of this year. A reference to April doesn’t pass the test imo (technical picture is totally different). When you really want to make a reference then the situation of December 2002 will qualify much better. December 2002 is showing stunning parallels with today’s situation , see chart below :
(To be placed here in a bit:)
So let’s compare December 2002 with December 2004 :
December 2002 : price of Gold just broke out of a powerful Teacup formation at $325
December 2004 : price of Gold just broke out of a powerful Teacup formation at $430
December 2002 : Gold struggled for weeks in order to slash $350
December 2004 : Gold IS struggling in order to slash $450
December 2002 : So many Gold analysts were predicting a top in Gold at $350 due to its overbought condtion
December 2004 : So many Gold analysts ARE predicting a top in Gold at $450 due to its overbought condition.
Last but not least :
During the entire bull market in Gold, the most powerful rallies started when the 50 dma started its ascend at or near the 200 dma. This was the case in Jan 02, Dec 02, Sep 03 and guess what ? It just happened again in Oct 04. Can’t help but to think that a powerful blow off towards $480 is eminent. Would be fun to see the Dennis Gartman type of guys explaining their clients that they were right but the markets are wrong !
Best, Eric