Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

While the battle rages on behind the scenes in Germany over their gold sales, the battle re the value of precious metals rages on elsewhere, like in Mexico, where valiant GATA supporter Hugo Salinas Price is leading an effort to make silver legal tender in that country.

Weeks ago I brought to your attention something significant was brewing regarding silver. The intrigue about what occurred has been extraordinary and is likely to remain that way for some time. The following email was recently sent to GATA’s Chris Powell by Hugo himself:

Dear Chris-

Thanks for your support! It is appreciated so much! There are NO national boundaries in this issue.

I cannot tell you what we are going to do, it would jeopardize our objective. As things are done, I'll be happy to let you know. When the Central Bank sends twelve honchos to a meeting, you know they have been losing sleep over this deal. Isn't that lovely?

By the way, they all looked very nervous. At least one of the men was on our side, we know that, but he kept very quiet wishing he wasn't there. What fun!

The Central Bank produced a long, long paper alleging falsities and contradicting itself. I could translate it, but it would be work. Just to show how they are at a loss to find arguments against silver monetization. Maybe I'll attempt it, along with a translation of our arguments in rebuttal of their position.

The Central Bank issued their remarks to the Ways and Means Committee in a paper without letterhead, signature, or date. Full of balderdash and ending with a study worthy of Harvard, complete with super-complicated equations to demonstrate - something which will not occur, implied by their own statements.

The paper was sent a few hours before the meeting of the Committee, when they had had years to give an opinion. Which means they were stumped and couldn't think of a cotton-pickin thing to say. But finally, they came out with their "Considerations", so now we know what they have to say, and it amounts to - nothing.

Great fun!

Have a wonderful Christmastime with your family and friends!
Hugo

A note from an Illinois GATA supporter:

Gold Stock Fire Sale or Sell Google Buy Gold

Year end tax selling has killed many of the gold stocks. These specialists on the listed shares started shorting them when the selling began. The Canadian junior market has looked like a battlefield for the new investor the past 3 years. This is a new happening and many can’t handle it. You can either be stupid (unfortunately, like many) and sell or start buying. Listen class," Buy on bad, sell on good; Buy on weakness, Sell on strength." I’ve taught the only "Gold 101 Class" to brokers in America. The year end tax selling is about over, and I expect a great recovery in ’05.

Those stocks that got beat up the most should be the ones to buy, but not in every case. Look at undervalued companies that are increasing reserves or production with good management teams. $400+ Gold and Asia are the best two things that ever happened to the mining business. We are in the middle of merger mania in the industry. Financing is readily available. World wide production and exploration is going down and demand is increasing. Friday’s PPI, talked down by CNBC, was double the expected rate. For the record the PPI is up 5% the past year, the biggest increase since 1990. Inflation, deflation, stagflation—Who cares! Gold is the only real store of value in the world today.

So here’s a few to look at: KRY $3.55, the only 18 million oz. deposit I know of that is up for grabs. If you know another one, call me. GG $13.75, pays a monthly dividend, is the lowest cost mine in the world, has positions in over a dozen juniors, a great management. DROOY $1.61, almost 1 million oz. production per year, 1/3 of production outside Africa, and the most heavily traded gold stock in the world. Apollo Gold AGT $.86, operating mines in Montana and Nevada, and Black Fox (300K oz. production/year) on line in 26 months. Savoy SVYR $.30, has all mineral rights to an entire province in Northeastern China, a first that I am aware of. Queenstake QEE $.36, first day on AMEX on Monday, December 13th, 260,000 oz./year of current production in Nevada, making Queenstake the fifth largest gold producer within the U.S. What a deal!

I follow about 200 other Companies, Trusts, and Funds. Go GATA! Rich Radez (800) 285-1700 rradez@danoyes.com

None of us can know what effect the German gold news will have in the very short-term. However, The Gold Cartel must be sweating it BIG TIME! As oft-reported in this column of late, these bums are in DEEP trouble. The tide is turning against them. They are running out of gold to prevent the price from exploding. The crooks are running out of readily available supply just at the time demand for gold is taking off around the world. Murphy’s Law is kicking in. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of self-serving devious lying rats.

On behalf of Chris Powell, the GATA Board of Directors and me, I would like to extend thanks to all those in the GATA ARMY who have worked diligently over the years to expose the gold fraud – so that the truth may come to light. You are making a difference. Time to pour it on these gold fraudster folks. We have them on the run. Let’s keep the heat on the bullies and expose them as the cowards they really are.

GATA also thanks so many GATA supporters for your financial contributions. It allows GATA to get the job done and win the day for all of us. On that score, the GATA prints are going out the door like hotcakes. We only have around 30 left and soon you won’t be able to have one of these 300 limited edition prints. We will be sold out. As pre-determined, the price will be going up to $1,000 from $750 after Christmas. More on this later.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Eichel ist mächtig sauer

Montag 20. Dezember 2004, 18:04 Uhr

Eichel kritisiert Goldverkäufe der Bundesbank als zu gering - Weber: Keine Notwendigkeit, Verkaufsoption vollständig auszuüben

Berlin (ddp.vwd). Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) hat die Entscheidung der Bundesbank kritisiert, im laufenden Jahr bis auf eine kleine Menge kein Gold zu verkaufen. Die Bundesbank werde erklären müssen, «warum sie als einzige der 15 Zentralbanken, die am Goldabkommen beteiligt waren, und trotz des sehr hohen Goldpreises die Verkaufsoption nicht ausübt», sagte Eichel der «Financial Times Deutschland» (Dienstagausgabe).

Zuvor hatte die Bundesbank angekündigt, sie werde lediglich acht Tonnen Gold an das Bundesfinanzministerium zur Fertigung von Münzen veräußern. Eichel habe offenbar gehofft, dass ein Gold-Verkauf in größerem Umfang helfen würde, den Bundesbankgewinn für 2004 und damit die Abführung an den Bund zu erhöhen, schreibt das Blatt. Eichel benötige 2005 einen Zentralbankgewinn von zwei Milliarden Euro.

Rein rechnerisch hätte die Bundesbank im ersten Jahr des fünfjährigen Goldabkommens 120 Tonnen verkaufen können. Im Rahmen des zweiten internationalen Goldabkommens von 15 europäischen Zentralbanken hatte sich die Bundesbank die Option gesichert, in den kommenden fünf Jahren 600 ihrer insgesamt 3440 Tonnen Gold zu verkaufen. Dabei ist ein genauer Zeitplan jedoch nicht vorgegeben.

Am Goldmarkt war erwartet worden, dass die Bundesbank von ihrem Verkaufsrecht Gebrauch macht, weil der Goldpreis hoch ist und nationale Goldreserven nach der Gründung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) an Bedeutung verloren haben. Wie die Bundesbank mitteilte, wird die ihr verbleibende Verkaufsoption aus dem ersten Jahr des Goldabkommens von anderen Notenbanken des Eurosystems übernommen.

Eichel unterstellt der Bundesbank dem Zeitungsbericht zufolge indirekt mangelnde gesamtwirtschaftliche Verantwortung. «Es ist ihre Zuständigkeit, das respektiere ich», sagte der Minister mit Blick auf die Verkaufsentscheidung. Er bekomme auch oft Ratschläge aus Frankfurt am Main. Und da werde er doch Fragen stellen dürfen. «Immerhin gehe es hier um die Frage nach dem sinnvollsten Umgang mit Volksvermögen und wie man es womöglich mehren kann», sagte Eichel.

Bundesbank-Präsident Axel Weber erklärte zu der Entscheidung seines Hauses, er sehe derzeit «keine Notwendigkeit», die Verkaufsoption auf weitere Teile der Goldreserven auszuüben. «Die Goldbestände der Bundesbank sind Teil des Volksvermögens, sie haben für die Bevölkerung einen hohen Symbolwert», sagte Weber. Im übrigen könnten Goldverkäufe kein Ersatz für eine nachhaltige Konsolidierungsstrategie der Finanzpolitik sein, warnte der Währungshüter. ddp.vwd/hsi/pon

http://de.news.yahoo.com/041220/336/4cgy3.html

[quote]Original von Ulfur

Berlin (ddp.vwd). Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) hat die Entscheidung der Bundesbank kritisiert, im laufenden Jahr bis auf eine kleine Menge kein Gold zu verkaufen. Die Bundesbank werde erklären müssen, «warum sie als einzige der 15 Zentralbanken, die am Goldabkommen beteiligt waren, und trotz des sehr hohen Goldpreises die Verkaufsoption nicht ausübt», sagte Eichel der «Financial Times Deutschland» (Dienstagausgabe).

berechtigte frage.......warum verkauft buba nicht????

a) wissen mehr und sind klüger als eichel
b) denken an das gemeinwohl (dem volk gehört das gold)
c) es ist nicht genug da zum verkauf.........

noch mehr optionen??

Das Weihnachtsgeschenk für alle Silber-Bugs:

Mexico May Remonetize Silver, GATA Says

Business Editors

DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 20, 2004--Mexico is close to remonetizing the country's greatest natural resource, silver, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee said today.
GATA distributed an essay from its correspondent in Mexico City, Hugo Salinas Price, reporting that legislation is pending before the Ways and Means Committee of Mexico's
House of Representatives that would put an undenominated one-ounce "Libertad" silver coin in general circulation along with Mexico's current paper money. While it is vehemently opposed by Mexico's central bank,
the Bank of Mexico, the legislation has the support of 30
of Mexico's 31 state governors and 176 Mexican journalists
and was almost unanimously favored in a poll taken by
TV Azteca. GATA said.
GATA said the silver coin legislation would give Mexicans a choice of money by which they might protect themselves against the devaluation of fiat currencies; would stimulate employment in the country's mining industry, the world's largest producer of silver; and would help break the suppression of the price of both silver and gold on the U.S. commodities exchanges, which are dominated by derivatives players more or less backed by the U.S. government. Salinas Price's essay can be found at the Internet site for GATA dispatches here: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2681
Salinas Price's own proposal for remonetizing silver in Mexico can be found at his Internet site here: http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/plata/english.htm

--30--KT/na*

CONTACT: Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
Bill Murphy, 214-522-3411
LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com

Jetzt fliegt der Silberadler wahrscheinlich bald. Wenn alles klappt, wird die physische Nachfrage stark anziehen ! Die Legislative hat jedenfalls die Unterstützung von 30 der 31 Gouverneure. Insbesondere das arbeitsplatzbezogene Argument ist in der gegenwärtigen Situation auch nicht zu unterschätzen.

Zitat

Original von Leosline

berechtigte frage.......warum verkauft buba nicht????

a) wissen mehr und sind klüger als eichel
b) denken an das gemeinwohl (dem volk gehört das gold)
c) es ist nicht genug da zum verkauf.........

noch mehr optionen??

Alles anzeigen

Zunächst einmal ist die Buba nicht weisungsgebunden, die müssen also nicht das machen was die Regierung gerne hätte.

Warum die EZB nicht verkauft weiss ich nicht. Die sehen wahrscheinlich keinen Anlass dazu. Die BuBa hat ja nicht die Absicht den Haushalt auszugleichen o.ä..
Ich denke das sie schon genug zum verkaufen haben. Wenn würde es ja sowieso Sinn machen zunächst das Papiergold zu verhökern.

Wie würde sich eigendlich ein Verkauf von Gold der BuBa auf die Geldmenge auswirken?
Es werden wohl durch den verkauf $ importiert. Wenn diese nicht gehalten werden sollen, und am Markt verkauft werden, was passiert dann mit der Geldmenge im Euro Raum?

Und hier kommt die nächste gute Nachricht

Eine Zusammenfassung / Analyse von Erich Hommelberg. Aufgrund der mangelnden Exploration in den letzten Jahren sinkt die Goldminenproduktion:

http://news.goldseek.com/EricHommelberg/1103560563.php

Gold und Silber gut gehalten (20.12.2004)

Das Gold konnte am Freitag etwas zulegen und ging mit 441,25 US$ pro Feinunze nahe dem Tageshoch aus dem Handel. Der Dollar ist weiterhin der entscheidende Faktor für den kurzfristigen Kursverlauf des gelben Metalls. Die physische Nachfrage ebbte am letzten Handelstag der Woche etwas ab. Dies ist aber angesichts der nahenden Feiertage und des Jahresendes vollkommen üblich. Das Kundeninteresse fokussierte sich auf die Goldmünzen 1 Unze Krügerrand und Wiener Philharmoniker sowie Goldbarren 100 Gramm und 250 Gramm. Das Verhältnis der Kundenkäufe zu den Verkäufen betrug dabei fünf zu eins.

Unsere Aussage bezüglich der Verfügbarkeit von physischem Gold hat bei einigen Lesern für Aufsehen gesorgt. Daher hierzu weitere Details. In den vergangenen Tagen kam es aufgrund der recht hohen Nachfrage zu leichten Verzögerungen bei der Auslieferung der Barrenhersteller. Das bedeutet nicht, dass das Gold im Allgemeinen knapp ist. Lediglich die prompte Lieferung ist derzeit nicht in jedem Fall gesichert. Die Produzenten liefern eben mit zwei bis drei Tagen Verzögerung aus. In der Vergangenheit gab es auch ähnliche Situationen. In Zeiten knapper Lagerhaltung führt eine gesteigerte Nachfrage schnell zu diesen Erscheinungen. Diese Situation wird sich erfahrungsgemäß schnell klären, nachdem die Hersteller ein- oder zwei Sonderschichten eingelegt haben. Jedenfalls ist das Gold zu Herstellung der Barren ausreichend verfügbar.

Die Zahlen zu den offenen Kontrakten an der Futuresbörse Comex in New York geben uns die Erklärung für den Selloff der vorletzten Handelswoche. Wie von uns prognostiziert haben sich die spekulativ orientierten Fonds in großem Stil von Ihren Goldpositionen getrennt. Am 14.Dezember betrug die Anzahl der Kontrakte auf der Longseite 160.102 (1 Kontrakt = 100 Unzen). Dies entspricht einem Rückgang von 51.913 Kontrakten. Die Käufer waren die kommerziellen Händler deren Shortposition sich somit deutlich verringerte. Diese Tendenz sollte sich in der Vorwoche fortgesetzt haben. Insgesamt bewerten wir es sehr positiv, dass sich die extreme Positionierung der einzelnen Gruppen auf eine „normale“ Größenordnung zurückgebildet hat und sich der Goldpreis dennoch beachtlich gut halten konnte. Das lässt für den weiteren Kursverlauf des Goldes durchaus optimistische Schlussfolgerungen zu.

Wir wünschen Ihnen einen positiven Wochenbeginn

Leosline,

Noch mehr Optionen?

Könnte z..B parteipolitisches Ränkespiel sein. Ev. haben die Gegner kein rot-grünes Parteibuch.

Ich halte es aber mehr mit der Erklärung, daß der Bundesbankvorstand verantwortungsvoll im Sinne wirtschaftlicher Stabilität gehandelt hat.

Wenn auch behauptet wird, die Erlöse hätten Zinsen erwirtschaften können, wissen die Bundesbanker, daß sich der Junkie nur eine Spritze von 1 Milliarde Kubik aufziehen wollte. Bald wäre der nächste Schuß, möglichst noch stärker fällig.

- Ist nicht genügend zum Verkauf da?
Wenn nicht Gold, dann doch als Goldforderungen.
In den LMC-Berichten wurde darauf hingewiesen, daß ein Teil des Zentralbankgoldes praktisch schon aus den Tresoren verschwunden sei und nur noch als (uneinbringbare) Forderung bestünde. Wie interpretiert Murphy die Weigerung des dt. Zentralbankrates, diese bloßen Goldforderungen zu verkaufen?

Mal sehen, wie das letztendlich aussehen soll mit den Silber -Libertads.

Was mir dabei immer in den Sinn kommt: schlechtes Geld verdrängt gutes Geld. Die Papierpesos werden dann schneller umlaufen und die Silbermünzen werden von der Bevölkerung gehortet werden - und dann?
Ich bin noch skeptisch, ob Mexiko allein so etwas durchziehen und durchhalten kann.
Aber wenn keiner anfängt, wird sich nie etwas ändern.

die Zukunft ist silbern

extrel

December 20 – Gold $442.10 up 70 cents – Silver $6.81 up 6 cents

Bundesbank Gold News Has Enormous Implications

Cautious, careful people, always casting about to preserve their reputation and social standing, never can bring about a reform. Those who are really in earnest must be willing to be anything or nothing in the world's estimation, and publicly and privately, in season and out, avow their sympathy with despised and persecuted ideas and their advocates, and bear the consequences...Susan B. Anthony

GO GATA!!!

Some things never seem to change. One of the rules of The Gold Cartel is to cap the price of gold on days when it should be the strongest and exuding the most excitement. Over the weekend and following Friday’s close, the news could not have been more bullish:

The COT numbers revealed the big specs short the euro and reducing their gold longs by 45,000+ contracts. The news about Mexico attempting to remonetize silver was circulated all over and then this morning this bombshell hits:

Bundesbank to Limit Gold Sales to 8 Tons in 1st Year of Agreement

By Laura Humble
Bloomberg News Service
Monday, December 20, 2004

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

LONDON -- Germany's Bundesbank, the world's second-biggest gold holder, will sell less than 7 percent of the amount allowed under a European accord, resisting calls to use bullion to help plug the government's budget deficit.

Eight metric tons of coins will be sold, the Bundesbank said in a statement. It was permitted to sell 120 tons of gold under an agreement that took effect in September, which caps annual sales by 15 participating banks at a total of 500 tons through
2009. The other banks will be able to use the Bundesbank's quota.

"We haven't taken a decision about 2005," Hans-Helmut Kotz, a Bundesbank board member, said today in an interview in Frankfurt. "That will happen some time next year."

German Finance Minister Hans Eichel said last week the Bundesbank should sell some gold reserves and use interest from the sale to fill the budget gap, Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported. Germany's deficit has exceeded European Union limits of 3 percent of gross domestic product for three years.

"We don't feel that we've been put under pressure by Eichel," Kotz said. Eichel expects this year's deficit in Germany, Europe's largest economy, to reach 3.75
percent of GDP.

Germany had 3,433 tons of bullion as of October, second only to the U.S. Federal Reserve's holding of 8,136 tons, according to the London-based World Gold Council. The International Monetary Fund has the third-largest hoard, followed by France and Italy.

The Bundesbank's board had been split over a sale, with President Axel Weber and Kotz in favor and the other six members opposed, the Financial Times Deutschland reported today, without citing anyone. The European Central Bank, the 12 euro-region central banks, the Swiss National Bank, and Sweden's Riksbank participate in the accord.

-END-

FRANKFURT (AFX) - Bundesbank president Axel Weber dismissed reports he tried to push for the sale of part of the central bank's gold reserves but was rejected by six of the eight Bundesbank board members. "It is wrong of the media to create the impression I wanted to sell gold and was rejected by the board," he tells the newspaper Die Welt in an interview to be published tomorrow." The gold reserves of the Bundesbank are part of our national wealth and have a great symbolic value to the population," Weber said. The Bundesbank announced today it will sell eight tonnes of gold to Germany's finance ministry but it has no plans to sell a further 112 tonnes it is allowed to offload in the first year of a five-year agreement on coordinated gold sales renewed in September. In the interview, Weber says the Bundesbank currently sees "no need to make use of the right to sell" a total of 120 tonnes of gold in the first year of the agreement. maria.sheahan@afxnews.comms/cw

***

FT.com

Germany loses shine on lower sales of gold
By Kevin Morrison
Published: December 20 2004 20:31 | Last updated: December 20 2004 20:31

The Bundesbank said on Monday it would sell 8 tonnes of gold next year, providing the German finance ministry with smaller than expected proceeds from gold sales given the size of the country's budget deficit.

The bullion market had expected the German central bank to sell about 120 tonnes in the first year of a five-year agreement among European central banks, as the Bundesbank has an option to sell up to 600 tonnes before September 2009.

Axel Weber, the Bundesbank president, denied media reports over the weekend that he had favoured selling gold but been blocked by some board members.

"At the present time, the board sees no need to exercise its sales option," Mr Weber said. "Furthermore, gold sales cannot be a substitute for a sustainable budget consolidation strategy. "There will be no further sales within the framework of the first year of the gold agreement." Germany is expected to exceed the European Union budget deficit limit of 3 per cent of gross domestic product for a third year in a row next year. The German finance ministry had budgeted for a €2bn dividend from the Bundesbank next year, including proceeds from the gold sales.

The sale of 8 tonnes at the current price of about $443 a troy ounce would only yield $114m (€143m).

The German finance ministry has been keen to sell down the country's gold holdings of 3,440 tonnes, making it the world's second largest holder after the United States, while the Bundesbank has appeared as a more reluctant seller.

"It is a very small amount, and well below expectations," said Wolfgang Wrzesnick-Rossbach, product manager, precious metals and commodities, at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

Mr Wrzesnick-Rossbach said while the Bundesbank announcement had little affect on gold prices, it could have a greater impact if the central bank was to make a similar sized sale next year. "If we see a repeat next year, it would be very bullish to the price," he said.

Under the Central Bank Gold Agreement renewed in September, the 15 signatories said they would sell up to 500 tonnes a year. The proposed sales by Germany and France would account for about half of the total, while about another 300 tonnes has been pledged by other publicly committed sellers including Switzerland and the Netherlands.

This still leaves a sizeable gap between the proposed total and the amounts committed for sale to date. Italy, which is the third largest gold holder among the signatories, has so far not committed to any gold sales.

The proposed 8-tonne sale will be used for minting coins. Germany has issued a series of commemorative gold coins in recent years including events such as the launch of the euro.

Under the original five-year central bank gold sales pact, Germany sold about 11 tonnes of gold, which was entirely used for minting coins.

-END-

Predictably, the euro (which already had rallied .30 after gold closed on Friday) took off and soon was up .80 to .90 on the day. This alone should have sent gold a good deal higher. Combined with the super bullish German gold news, the price should have popped $10 to $15 per ounce. However, as we know, that is NEVER allowed, certainly not on such obviously bullish news.

Interestingly enough, the Mexico silver news had more effect than the Bundesbank gold news. Silver opened firm and kept going, until dragged back in sympathy with the bullion mugging. Later, silver succumbed to the crummy gold action and went back to fill its gap left on the opening. Locals were forced to cover late and the price recovered, albeit 10 cents off its high.

The March silver chart is a funny one:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/35

Look at that monster gap to be filled above the market. With the Germans basically declining to sell their gold and the Mexicans trying to bring silver into their monetary system, I would think both the gold and silver shorts would be very nervous at the moment.

The silver open interest fell 763 contracts to 99,952.

At least gold filled another one of those pesky gaps left below the market. Had today’s not been filled, it would have left three. As in silver, gold has a monster one to fill on the upside.

The gold open interest rose 2321 contracts to 320,905, which is around 55,000 off its recent high.

One more day to go to complete the two week correction time period after a major washout.

Deutsche Bank has been the big stopper (taking delivery) in the December gold and silver contracts.

Only gold (silver too at times) could trade as poorly as it did today under such constructive developments. Am I surprised? Nope. Disgusted? Yep. What else is new? Soon as I saw how the cabal was capping the price early, I turned off my computer. No point being aggravated all day. That was the bad news. The good news is The Gold Cartel is using Band-Aids when they are in need of a major operation to cure their ills.

The cabal forces just don’t have enough available gold to keep the price down too much longer. The German news is a major blow to their scheme for a number of reasons:

*First of all, The Gold Cartel won’t get their hands on German central bank gold supply this coming year. Done deal.

*Worse for the cabal is the German refusal to part with their gold after all the publicity from various German officials urging them to do so. This surely will affect the decisions of other central banks, many of whom react in sheep-like fashion. Without a doubt, other central bankers must be pondering why they should sell gold if the Germans own so much and are selling so little. Hard to imagine the French selling much gold after the Germans say no.

*Third, it might affect some countries that have lent out their gold and decide it is a good time to recall it.

*And fourth, it should have some affect on the big hedgers to buy back some of their forward sales on price dips. Some of the major hedgers, like Barrick and AngloGold, must know the significance of the Bundesbank decision in the greater scheme of things.

The Bundesbank decision has enormous ramifications. What is so exciting is THE DECISION has been made. It will have a lasting positive effect all next year on the price of gold. It also underscores the importance of comprehending what GATA knows about the true status of central bank gold supply. Most of the investment/gold world believes the central banks have 28,000 tonnes sitting in their vaults. We know they have less than 16,000. As a result, The Gold Cartel is in desperate need to find supply to fill the yearly 1500+ supply/demand deficit. With so much central gold having already disappeared in surreptitious lending/swap operations, they are running out of future options. Therefore, Germany’s decision struck a major blow to the cabal’s plans to control the price from rising rapidly in the months to come.

My bet is there will be a significant delayed reaction to the Bundesbank news, one which should surface in the days, or weeks ahead.

Greg Pickup just called, going over how gold could be down 50-70 cents on the day with all the bullish news. Course we both knew the answer. What is so annoying is the retards in the gold establishment world will say nothing about the blatant manipulation. Instead, PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. The dullard pundits will make special note how poorly gold traded in light of the German news and weak dollar. Naturally, this is just what The Gold Cartel wants and why they leaned on the price in orchestrated fashion. Mission accomplished for the day.

Constructive March euro chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/35

Copper bears continue to get their butts handed to them. The bronze metal closed at $1.42.05, basis the March contract, and is not far from making significant new highs.

March copper
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/35

Monthly copper
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/M

The John Brimelow Report

A Bear trap for Christmas?

Monday, December 20, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.26, PM $7.56, with world gold at $441.20 and $441.65. Ample for legal imports.

TOCOM was quiet and non-committal. On volume equal to only 11,999 Comex lots (-13%) open interest slipped the equivalent of 506 Comex lots. The active contract was up 5 yen and world gold went out 35c above the NY close. Mitsubishi, somewhat ominously, reports the market was capped by overseas selling, but in any case it is clear that the Far East is not the story in gold right now. (NY on Friday traded an estimated 50,000 lots)

An attempted probe to the down side was defeated in NY on Friday by what some say was Fund buying (UBS admits to having been a "decent" buyer). Unfortunately, as noted on Friday, the subsequent strong rally was stopped cold over an hour before the close, after which gold moved sideways on comparatively heavy volume. This suggests a capping operation, possibly Official.

With the Bundesbank’s categorical refusal to sell any significant quantity of gold over the first year of the new Washington Accord, announced about 5AM NY time today, renewed sogginess in the dollar, and of course continued Indian buying, the Bears are awkwardly positioned and need help.

The CFTC data released on Friday does not provide it. While most dismiss the 4.7Mm oz decline in net spec longs (the second biggest on record) as not enough, there important differences with the largest decline, registered as of April 20 this year. By the time this came out, the following Friday, world gold was already several dollars lower, taking another two weeks to bottom. This time, the price has actually risen. This is consistent with the Indian situation: at the crest in world gold in the mid $420s in March, India was not an importer, this time, with gold in the mid $450s earlier this month, premiums have rarely been more robust.

In other words, the Bears made their move too soon and too early. They need a friend.

The Comex data due in a couple of hours will merit attention.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW put on 12 to 10,661, while the DOG gave up 7 to 2127.

10:00 Nov. LEI reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.1%
Prior reading revised to (0.4%) from (0.3%).

The GATA ARMY at work:

Hi Bill,
Great Midas Commentary today (Sunday):, Bill! Germany and Mexico are HUGE news!
I spent the weekend putting together forty well referenced (complete with attachments and numerous hyperlinks) media packages and they will be sent to the media by regular mail on Monday.
Ron

From Karen in Bora Bora:

Hi Bill,
Just sent you the photo of Alain signing the last of the prints. Wow, they are really going fast! His original paintings are flying also!!!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…4/DespertPrintSigning.jpg]

By the way, I'm working on updating the web site today (http://www.despert.com/). Remember, any GATA supporters will receive 20% off the internet price. Please make sure they tell me so I can give them the "special" price.
A couple of your supporters were not aware, and almost missed the discount.
HOLIDAY CHEERS ~ Karen