Constructive March euro chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/35
Copper bears continue to get their butts handed to them. The bronze metal closed at $1.42.05, basis the March contract, and is not far from making significant new highs.
March copper
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/35
Monthly copper
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/M
The John Brimelow Report
A Bear trap for Christmas?
Monday, December 20, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.26, PM $7.56, with world gold at $441.20 and $441.65. Ample for legal imports.
TOCOM was quiet and non-committal. On volume equal to only 11,999 Comex lots (-13%) open interest slipped the equivalent of 506 Comex lots. The active contract was up 5 yen and world gold went out 35c above the NY close. Mitsubishi, somewhat ominously, reports the market was capped by overseas selling, but in any case it is clear that the Far East is not the story in gold right now. (NY on Friday traded an estimated 50,000 lots)
An attempted probe to the down side was defeated in NY on Friday by what some say was Fund buying (UBS admits to having been a "decent" buyer). Unfortunately, as noted on Friday, the subsequent strong rally was stopped cold over an hour before the close, after which gold moved sideways on comparatively heavy volume. This suggests a capping operation, possibly Official.
With the Bundesbank’s categorical refusal to sell any significant quantity of gold over the first year of the new Washington Accord, announced about 5AM NY time today, renewed sogginess in the dollar, and of course continued Indian buying, the Bears are awkwardly positioned and need help.
The CFTC data released on Friday does not provide it. While most dismiss the 4.7Mm oz decline in net spec longs (the second biggest on record) as not enough, there important differences with the largest decline, registered as of April 20 this year. By the time this came out, the following Friday, world gold was already several dollars lower, taking another two weeks to bottom. This time, the price has actually risen. This is consistent with the Indian situation: at the crest in world gold in the mid $420s in March, India was not an importer, this time, with gold in the mid $450s earlier this month, premiums have rarely been more robust.
In other words, the Bears made their move too soon and too early. They need a friend.
The Comex data due in a couple of hours will merit attention.
JB
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The DOW put on 12 to 10,661, while the DOG gave up 7 to 2127.
10:00 Nov. LEI reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.1%
Prior reading revised to (0.4%) from (0.3%).
The GATA ARMY at work:
Hi Bill,
Great Midas Commentary today (Sunday):, Bill! Germany and Mexico are HUGE news!
I spent the weekend putting together forty well referenced (complete with attachments and numerous hyperlinks) media packages and they will be sent to the media by regular mail on Monday.
Ron
From Karen in Bora Bora:
Hi Bill,
Just sent you the photo of Alain signing the last of the prints. Wow, they are really going fast! His original paintings are flying also!!!
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…4/DespertPrintSigning.jpg]
By the way, I'm working on updating the web site today (http://www.despert.com/). Remember, any GATA supporters will receive 20% off the internet price. Please make sure they tell me so I can give them the "special" price.
A couple of your supporters were not aware, and almost missed the discount.
HOLIDAY CHEERS ~ Karen
Good stuff from Kiwi Land:
Hi Bill :
I decided to play with numbers today just to see how bad things really were with the Gold shares. I selected a number of well known names listed them above with their gains (mostly substantial losses) for the year. Some of the prices I quoted are in CDN Dollars, others in US Dollars. There are not many Gold shares that are up for the year. Just a couple of mine. With Silver the story is mixed. Western Silver has a large gain but that is a company specific story. However I did notice one thing. Look at Coeur d”Alene and Hecla. Both down 30%, far worse than the competition and these are the only two silver shares in the HUI index. Is someone playing games with the Index Components?
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/StockChart1220.gif]
Here is a comment that I picked off a chat board today: “Gold and gold stock action pathetic today in view of decent drop in the buck.. I suspect gold is headed towards $420 and may even test the $400 area within a few months.” This is a typical reaction from investors closely watching the action.
I’ve read many articles about recent gold share “underperformance” and I’ve come to the conclusion that there is only one answer. Manipulation. Sure there are other influences such as tax loss selling. But this is late in the month for that. Then there are the arguments that Gold isn’t going up in other currencies. True but we faced the same problem last year and that didn’t stop the shares from going up.
Let’s look at it from the other side-the enemy side. They face the difficult problem of defending an overvalued currency with nothing but promises. Promises they’ve repeatedly broken over the decades. Gold has now gone up 75% against the US Dollar over the past 3 years and Gold shares have outperformed most other sectors. If the average investor got it into his head to put just 5% of his assets into Gold/gold shares it would be curtains for the Dollar. The solution? Make sure anyone who tries this gets burned real bad. Perception is everything. For those of us who bought the HUI under 50 or even under 150 the current situation is bearable. But for anyone who bought Gold shares this year for the first time, unless they’re good traders, it has been a very bad year. As the table above clearly shows.
Right now the Gold shares are very very cheap. Gold itself is very very cheap in most foreign currencies. Here in New Zealand, Gold is $100 an oz cheaper now than it was 3 years ago. And yet we see so called Gold bulls actually shorting the gold shares. Calling for Gold to drop to $400 or less. Why? Because they look at Gold share charts rather than fundamentals and their charts are screaming SELL at them. They believe the Gold shares lead the metal.
The bad guys have accomplished this in the same way they have saved the Dow and Nasdaq. Just as their strategic buying has prevented bad charts in these indices their strategic selling of Gold shares has done the opposite to the HUI and other Gold indices. Just as we see the Dow miraculously recover just before close we see the HUI do a swan dive. Bad news on individual Dow shares is bought and good news or a Gold miner is sold. We see this over and over again.
Even long time pros like Veneroso has been tricked by the Gold share action. His recent comments have no doubt scared many others into selling. I take a different view of all this. It’s simple. Just repeat this over and over again:
A tonne of Gold costs $14 Million. A tonne of Gold costs $14 Million. A tonne of Gold costs $14 Million.
And every day, EVERY DAY, the USA is asking the world to hand over $2 to $3 Billion in charity. That’s right in charity never to be repaid except possibly at a steep discount.
That’s the equivalent of 150 tonnes a day! 4500 tonnes a month! 55,000 tonnes a year! They have to convince the world to accept the paper equivalent of 55,000 tonnes of Gold a year in a currency that is falling. You have to hand it to them. So far their trickery has worked. You can fool a lot of people a lot of the time.
The bad guys want to make sure YOU stay in the Dollar. Not in Gold where you’re protected. So they engineer quick run ups in the Gold shares and then, just as a previous resistance level is broken and you would expect further buying to enter the market, just then, they sell the HUI big time. They sell a small cache of Gold “borrowed” from some poor Central Bank and the “suckers” who bought the rally are slaughtered.
If you want to be in Gold shares rather than the Dollar the time to buy is when the shares are down and out. Like now! Guess who else is buying down here?
Cheers from Auckland, Ed
ed.na@xtra.co.nz
The gold shares continue to trade aimlessly and without any bullish conviction. The XAU rose .43 to 9876, while the pitiful HUI sank 1.01 to 213.88.
Meanwhile the Café Sentiment Indicator continues to limp along near its 6 year bottom of 3. The way I see it gold and silver are going into one of their most explosive periods since the first Washington Agreement was announced with most gold investors as apathetic as I have ever seen. You would think gold was offered at $290 based on the interest in The Café and by the action of the woeful gold shares.
Keep the Faith. Exasperation will turn to Exhilaration in the weeks and months to come. There is little doubt in my mind the biggest money players in the world (Russians, Chinese, Germans, some large hedge funds) know what GATA knows. After all, they only have to put a senior staffer to review the material at The Café, http://www.GATA.org, http://www.goldmoney.com and http://www.goldensextant.com to understand the perilous situation The Gold Cartel is in because of the extent of the central bank gold loans/swaps. The bad guys are in the process of checkmating themselves. As the cabal’s King is going down for the count, the price of gold, silver and the shares are going to skyrocket!
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Sunday, December 19, 2004 · Last updated 7:01 a.m. PT
Salvation Army thankful for gold donations
By JAN DENNIS
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
PEORIA, Ill. -- Salvation Army officials don't know who has been dropping gold coins into their holiday kettles over the past 20 years, but they hope the mysterious donations continue.
More than 300 gold coins have been collected since the early 1980s, with an average value of about $200 each, said Cliff Marshall, spokesman for the charity in Chicago, where the tradition began.
Chicago bell-ringers have brought in 10 gold coins so far this year. They aren't the only ones.
In Kirksville, Mo., someone donated a gold coin that was minted 20 years before the Civil War, worth nearly $1,000. A $400 South African Krugerrand was dropped in a kettle in Bloomington, Ill., meaning 12 extra families will get a complete Christmas dinner.
But officials still don't know where the coins come from.
The mysterious tradition began in 1982, when someone slipped a gold coin into a kettle in the Chicago suburb of Crystal Lake. The donations have occurred there ever since and have spread across Illinois and about a dozen other states.
The phantom donors almost always conceal the coins, usually folding dollar bills around them. They range from small gold pieces worth about $15 to Krugerrands that can fetch $600 from collectors.
The gold coins have been worth a total of about $60,000. That's just a fraction of the $3.5 million collected by the Salvation Army last year in Chicago alone. But the mystery donors may have more than money on their mind.
Some believe the coin droppers might have been helped by the relief agency in the past. Or they might just like the thrill of seeing the donation play out in the media. One woman called last summer to say her late mother left gold coins in the kettles each year because she liked the buzz it created, Marshall said.
Rich Draeger, spokesman for Salvation Army's Peoria division, said the timing of the donations suggest they might be an inside job. He said gold coins tend to show up when giving starts to lag, indicating it might an attempt by the charity to generate extra publicity.
"It seems to be a benefactor who knows that it's going to mean a lot more than a $300 or $400 coin - it's going to bring attention," Draeger said.
Daniel Borochoff, president of the American Institute of Philanthropy, a charity watchdog group, doubts the Salvation Army is planting the coins to create publicity.
"They're a heavy-duty Christian group, so that may go against their principals," he said.
Marshall, for one, hopes the mystery is never solved. "It's more fun to speculate than to know for sure," he said.
***
Bill after reading the gold coin story I decided to drop a gold coin in a Salvation Army bucket with a piece of tape on it with the letters GATA.
Tag reads To : Salvation Army From : GATA Army
Brian
Gold row exposes German tensions
By Hugh Williamson in Berlin and Patrick Jenkins in Frankfurt
Published: December 20 2004 22:16 | Last updated: December 20 2004 22:16
Simmering tensions between the German government and the country's central bank boiled over into a full-scale row last night after Hans Eichel, finance minister, criticised the Bundesbank for refusing to help ease government financial problems by selling gold reserves.
Mr Eichel told the Financial Times that the central bank's decision on Monday to sell only eight tonnes of gold in the next nine months was "very difficult to explain".
Under an accord among 15 European central banks, the Bundesbank could have sold 120 tonnes by September 2005, a sale that would have brought government revenues of about €1bn, according to Mr Eichel.
Strains between the Bundesbank and the government have worsened in recent months as the central bank has called repeatedly for Berlin to tighten spending. It has also criticised the government's proposals to ease rules governing the European Union's stability and growth pact.
Mr Eichel acknowledged that decisions over Germany's gold reserves were the responsibility of the independent Bundesbank.
"It's their responsibility, I respect that. But I get advice from Frankfurt often enough so I should at least be able to ask questions," he said.
He noted the central bank was isolated in refusing to sell large quantities of gold. "The Bundesbank will have to explain why it alone of the 15 central banks in the gold agreement is not exercising its sale option, despite the high gold price," he said.
The government is struggling to bring Germany's budget deficit next year below the 3 per cent level set by the stability pact.
Axel Weber, Bundesbank president, said the bank "did not see the necessity at this time to exercise its sales option. The reserves are part of the wealth of the people and have a high symbolic value".
In comments likely to stir further tensions, he added: "Gold sales should not be an alternative to sustained budget consolidation [by the government]".
Economists said the Bundesbank's decision was clearly a blow to Mr Eichel.
"This is another reminder that the German government's ambitions to markedly reduce the deficit to GDP ratio are unrealistic. The idea of bringing it below 3 per cent next year is just wishful thinking," said Jürgen Michels, economist at Citigroup.
Other governments have begun the sale of gold reserves following the Europe-wide agreement to accelerate the reduction of reserves, economists said.
In March, the central banks said they would raise the limit on their total annual gold sales to 500 tonnes a year over the five years to September 2009 from 400 tonnes under the previous accord which expired in September.
Faced with the budget deficit, however, Mr Eichel had pressed for Germany's 3,400 tonnes of gold to be earmarked for transfer to the government's coffers.
Germany's unsold gold option would now be taken up by other banks in the European agreement, the Bundesbank said.
Können die Journalisten der Süddeutschen Zeitung nicht rechnen?
Goldverkäufe
Regierung wirft der Bundesbank "Bockigkeit" vor
Eichel will, dass die Bundesbank Gold verkauft. Die Bundesbank denkt aber nicht daran, sie gibt lediglich acht Tonnen zur Prägung von Goldmünzen ab — obwohl sie 120 Tonnen verkaufen könnte.
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/artikel/79/45034/1/
Daraus:
„Insgesamt verfügt die Bundesbank über 3440 Tonnen Gold, die sie seit ihrem Bestehen aufgebaut hat. Der Wert ist in den Büchern der Bundesbank mit 36,5 Milliarden Euro angegeben. Beim Verkauf von 600 Tonnen könnten durch die höheren Marktpreise insgesamt mehr als fünf Milliarden Euro über einen Zeitraum mobilisiert werden.“
3440 Tonnen Gold sind ca. 111 Mill. Unzen. Bei einer Gesamtbewertung von 36,5 Mrd. Euro ist die Unze mit ca. 330 Euro bewertet. Also zu Marktpreisen. Was faselt die Süddeutsche von höheren Marktpreisen?
Weiter: 600 Tonnen sind ca. 19 Mill Unzen. Die „insgesamt mehr als fünf Milliarden Euro“ würden somit einem Unzenpreis von 259 Euro entsprechen. 
Halt, da fällt mir Eichels Interview ein „Die Bundesbank darf 120 Tonnen Gold verkaufen, das bringt ungefähr eine Milliarde Euro.“ Die Süddeutsche hat Eichels Zahlen für bare Münze genommen und von 120 Tonnen auf 600 Tonnen hochgerechnet. Schlampiger Journalismus. Sollte inzwischen bekannt sein, daß Eichels Zahlen nicht zu trauen ist.
Arbeitsmarkt 2005
Es bleibt düster
Im Jahr 2004 ist die Arbeitslosigkeit gewachsen. Und 2005? Infolge der Hartz-Reformen wird die Zahl der Arbeitslosen erst einmal zunehmen, erwarten Experten.
Für Wolfgang Clement (SPD) schien der Aufschwung noch am Jahresanfang sicher, doch die Wirklichkeit widerlegte den Optimismus des Bundeswirtschaftsministers rasch: Im Jahr 2004 hat sich die Lage am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt weiter verdüstert. Mit voraussichtlich 4,39 Millionen Erwerbslosen im Jahresdurchschnitt - rund 10.000 mehr als im Vorjahr - hat der Arbeitsmarkt im zu Ende gehenden Jahr einen neuerlichen Tiefpunkt erreicht.
Auch für 2005 erwartet die Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) keine durchgreifende Änderung. Daran wird nach Experteneinschätzung vorerst auch die Hartz-IV-Reform nichts ändern.
Das gute Exportgeschäft sorgte zwar für eine Belebung der Konjunktur. Das für 2004 erwartete Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) von rund 1,7 Prozent reichte jedoch bei weitem nicht für Impulse auf dem Arbeitsmarkt aus. Dazu sind nach Einschätzung des HypoVereinsbank-Volkswirts Andreas Rees weit mehr als zwei Prozent Wachstum erforderlich. Tatsächlich hat nach Beobachtungen der Deutschen Bundesbank vor allem die Industrie in den vergangenen Monaten Arbeitsplätze auf breiter Front abgebaut. Auch im Baugewerbe und vielen Dienstleistungs-Unternehmen gingen Vollzeit-Jobs verloren.
Zwar blieben dem Arbeitsmarkt im Jahr 2004 die extremen Ausschläge des Vorjahres erspart, als die Erwerbslosenzahlen im Februar 2003 auf mehr als 4,7 Millionen angestiegen war. Aber auch wenn man das jahreszeitlich schwankende Kurvengebirge der Arbeitsmarktstatistik um saisonale Sondereffekte glättet, verzeichneten die 180 Arbeitsämter übers Jahr eine deutlich ansteigende Arbeitslosigkeit: So lag im November 2004 die saisonbereinigte Arbeitslosenzahl mit 4,464 Millionen um 196.000 über dem Niveau vom Jahresanfang.
So blicken denn auch die Nürnberger Arbeitsmarktforscher nur verhalten optimistisch auf das Jahr 2005. Das Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) etwa rechnet in seiner so genannten Jahres-Projektion für das nächste Jahr mit durchschnittlich 4,37 Millionen Erwerbslosen; dies wären rund 15.000 weniger als in 2004. Die "Denkfabrik" der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) unterstellt dabei in ihrer mittleren von drei denkbaren Varianten ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,75 Prozent. Die IAB-Fachleute sehen vor allem in der Entwicklung des Ölpreises und dem steigenden Dollar einen erhebliches Konjunkturrisiko.
» Von der Konjunktur werden keine großen Impulse auf den Arbeitsmarkt ausgehen. «
Auch aus diesem Grund beurteilen Volkswirte deutscher Großbanken die weitere Entwicklung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt eher zurückhaltend. So rechnet der Deutsche-Bank-Volkswirt Stephan Bielmeier mit einer jahresdurchschnittlichen Arbeitslosigkeit von bis zu 4,6 Millionen; er geht dabei allerdings auch nur von einem Wirtschaftswachstum von einem Prozent für 2005 aus. "Von der Konjunktur werden keine großen Impulse auf den Arbeitsmarkt ausgehen", ist der Bankenvertreter überzeugt. Kaum optimistischer ist Bankanalyst Rees; er prognostiziert für 2005 eine durchschnittliche Arbeitslosenzahl von rund 4,5 Millionen - bei einem unterstellten Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,2 Prozent.
Schwer kalkulierbar sind für die Experten derweil die Auswirkungen der Hartz IV-Reform, die mit der Verschmelzung von Arbeitslosen- und Sozialhilfe zum Arbeitslosengeld II das Sozialsystem grundlegend neu ordnet. Inzwischen setzt sich aber bei namhaften Arbeitsmarktexperten die Einschätzung durch, dass die Neuregelung vor allem zum Jahresbeginn die Zahl der Arbeitslosen sprunghaft anstiegen lassen wird. Im Zusammenhang mit der Bereitstellung von so genannten Ein-Euro-Jobs und der verbesserten Betreuung könnte jedoch die gestiegene Zahl der Langzeitarbeitslosen bis zum Jahresende wieder abgebaut sein.
Den großen Durchbruch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt als Folge der Hartz-IV-Reform werde es aber kaum geben.
(dpa, von Klaus Tscharnke)
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/job…tudium/artikel/103/45058/
ftd.de, Di, 21.12.2004, 11:20
Wirtschaftsinstitute blicken pessimistisch ins nächste Jahr
Die Erholung der deutschen Wirtschaft wird nach Einschätzung des Ifo-Instituts im nächsten Jahr kraftlos bleiben. Das Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut HWWA rechnet sogar mit einer Wachstumsrate unter einem Prozent.
Die Binnenwirtschaft werde die nachlassende Dynamik der Exporte nicht ausgleichen können, teilte das Münchner Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Ifo) mit. Das Wirtschaftswachstum werde im nächsten Jahr nur 1,2 Prozent betragen. In ihrem gemeinsamen Herbstgutachten waren die sechs führenden Konjunkturinstitute noch von einem Zuwachs um 1,5 Prozent ausgegangen. "Die Weltwirtschaft boomt wie seit 28 Jahren nicht mehr, doch die deutsche Wirtschaft macht nicht mit", sagte das Ifo. Damit bleibe Deutschland beim Wachstum das Schlusslicht in Europa.
"Deutschland ist entkoppelt von der Welt", sagte Ifo-Chef Hans-Werner Sinn. Von 1995 bis 2004 sei kein anderes Land in Mittel- und Westeuropa langsamer gewachsen. Damit stecke Deutschland seit einem Jahrzehnt in einer Wachstumskrise, deren Ende nicht absehbar sei. Für das abgelaufene Jahr erwartet das Ifo ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,7 (Herbstgutachten: 1,8 ) Prozent. Dabei gingen aber allein 0,5 Prozentpunkte auf zusätzliche Arbeitstage in diesem Jahr zurück.
In den vergangenen Wochen wurden die Wachstumserwartungen auf breiter Front zurückgeschraubt. Das Kieler IfW erwartet nur noch ein Wachstum im nächsten Jahr von 0,8 Prozent. Das IWH in Halle und das Essener RWI prognostizieren einen Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1,3 Prozent.
HWWA senkt Prognose auf unter ein Prozent
Das Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut HWWA senkte seine Konjunkturprognose für das kommende Jahr von 1,4 Prozent auf 0,9 Prozent. "Alles in allem besteht für das Jahr 2005 in Deutschland kein Anlass zur Euphorie", teilten die Hamburger Wissenschaftler mit. Auch am Arbeitsmarkt erwarten sie keine durchgreifende Besserung. Das Institut rechnet mit 4,43 Millionen Arbeitslosen im Jahresschnitt oder einer Quote von 10,3 Prozent. Das Haushaltsdefizit werde nur wenig sinken und mit 3,5 Prozent erneut die Obergrenze des Maastricht-Vertrages überschreiten.
HWWA-Präsident Thomas Straubhaar sah allerdings langfristige Ansätze für einen bessere Entwicklung: "Es braucht Zeit, bis die Erfolge des Jahres 2004 sich auswirken werden." Er nannte als Erfolge den "Aufbruch des Tarifkartells", die Umsetzung der Hartz-Reformen und die Sanierung der Rentensysteme.
Jobverlagerung Grund für skeptischen Ausblick
Ursache für den skeptischeren Ausblick des Ifo für 2005 ist die Annahme, dass sich der Export wegen einer nachlassenden Dynamik der Weltkonjunktur deutlich schwächer entwickeln wird als in diesem Jahr. Die Binnennachfrage bleibe im Gegenzug zu schwach, um diese Einbußen ausgleichen zu können. Der Grund dafür sei das hohe deutsche Lohnkostenniveau, was die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Arbeitnehmer angesichts der wachsenden Niedriglohnkonkurrenz in Osteuropa und Asien immer mehr beeinträchtige. Deshalb sicherten die Firmen ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit dadurch, dass sie Teile der Produktion und damit Arbeitsplätze in Niedriglohnländer verlagerten.
Die Arbeitnehmer hätten Angst vor dem Arbeitsplatzverlust und hielten sich beim Kauf langlebiger Güter zurück, teilte das Ifo mit. "Die schwache Binnennachfrage ist ein unmittelbarer Reflex der Standortprobleme des Landes." Zum Export hieß es, dieser werde im nächsten Jahr nur noch halb so stark zulegen wie 2004. Für das laufende Jahr geht das Institut von einem Exportzuwachs von gut neun Prozent aus. Die Frage, warum sich der Export nicht so stark wie früher auf die Binnenwirtschaft überträgt, erklärt das Ifo mit dem so genannten Basareffekt. Danach besteht ein wachsender Teil der Exporte aus importierten Vorleistungen und ausländischen Handelsgütern, also durchlaufenden Posten.
© 2004 Financial Times Deutschland
Merkwürdig, trotz der tollen Reformen, des EU-Binnenmarktes, der gemeinsamen Währung und der Aufnahme neuer Mitglieder entwickelt sich Deutschland zum Looser der EU. Oder wie Stephen Roach es sieht "germany..the odd man out in a Euro-zone"
Das Gerangel um deutsche Goldreserven hat begonnen (21.12.2004)
Die Diskussion um Sinn oder Unsinn von Goldverkäufen aus den offiziellen deutschen Reserven ist voll entbrannt. Mehrere Zeitungen berichteten über einen Vorstoß des Bundesfinanzministers Hans Eichel, die Option zur Veräußerung von 600 Tonnen Gold im Gegenwert von 6,4 Mrd. Euro zu ziehen, und so die Einhaltung der europäischen Stabilitätskriterien zu ermöglichen. Diese Option wurde im Frühjahr mit Vertretern der 15 europäischen Nationalbanken ausgehandelt. Damals wurde das Washingtoner Abkommen um weitere 5 Jahre bis 2009 verlängert. Innerhalb dieses Zeitraums dürfen insgesamt 2.500 Tonnen Gold am Markt verkauft werden. Das Direktorium der Bundesbank scheint aber nichts von den Plänen des Finanzministers zu halten. Gerüchten zufolge haben sechs der acht Mitglieder einem Verkauf nicht zugestimmt. Bundespräsident Weber versucht derzeit die Wogen zu glätten und stellt dabei unmissverständlich klar, dass er die Reduzierung der Goldbestände nicht forciere.
Aus unserer Sicht ist diese Diskussion überflüssig. Angesichts der Neuverschuldung von über 65 Mrd. Euro im Vorjahr (Bund, Länder und Gemeinden) sind die Erlöse aus den Goldverkäufen ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein. Das Argument „Gold bringt keine Zinsen“ hat in diesem Zusammenhang keinerlei Bedeutung. Vielmehr sollte angesichts maroder sozialer Sicherungssysteme und horrender Staatsverschuldung das Thema „Vertrauensbildung“ oberste Priorität genießen. Goldverkäufe verbieten sich in Zeiten wie diesen!
Diese Erfahrung musste auch Großbritannien machen. Zwischen 1999 und 2002 trennte sich das englische Schatzamt von rund 500 Tonnen des gelben Metalls, um die Erlöse in zinsbringenden Papieren oder Fremdwährungen anzulegen. Bis heute kostete diese Aktion den englischen Steuerzahler mehrere 100 Millionen Pfund. Das Gold wurde damals nahe den 20-Jahres Tiefstständen verkauft und die Anlage in verzinslichen Dollarpapieren erwies sich nach dem Verfall des Greenback als falsche Strategie. Hoffentlich besinnen sich unsere Politiker angesichts dieser Erfahrungen.
Wir wünschen Ihnen einen erfolgreichen Handelstag
December 21 – Gold $441.20 down 90 cents – Silver $6.87 up 6 cents
Right On Cue
Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it...Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)
GO GATA!!!
A very quiet day in the gold pits. Not so in Iraq. Twenty four U.S. military personnel, U.S. contractors, foreign national contractors and Iraqi army were massacred in Mosul today - and 60+ were wounded, which follows the recent slaughtering of other Iraqis over the past few days. None of the goings-on over in Iraq seem to make any impact on US financial markets, however, the denial we have over here in the US re how deteriorating the situation is becoming cannot continue into the new year, not with their elections looming on the horizon. Iraq is a fiasco of epic proportions, as the US faces another Vietnam, with no graceful way out. You can read about this elsewhere and make up your own mind on what is to come. The way I see it, the continuing debacle in Iraq is bound to have a significant impact on the gold price next year and is why I put some focus on it today.
One more point to make on the situation in Iraq. Certain market considerations are of no significance until they are. Sounds like Yogi Berra I know. However, that is the way it is. One day the ramifications of the Iraq misadventure/nightmare will hit the US radar financial market screen and send our markets into some convulsion. Only a matter of time.
Gold is in the process of completing its composure period following the $20 collapse of two weeks ago and has done so by advancing around $9 off its lows, a healthy sign. While bullion may gyrate up and down a bit more, it should resume its upward advance shortly.
The gold open interest rose 517 contracts to 321,422, while the silver open interest dropped 876 contracts to 99,076.
Silver, which has lagged the gold recovery, showed a bit of oomph with Morgan Stanley on the buy side. Perhaps some of the silver traders were watching the zesty action of copper, where the shorts appear to getting squeezed. March copper closed at $1.4425, up another 2.2 cents.
For the most part the analysts and bullion banks in the mainstream gold world have got the move up in price over the past years all wrong. Who among them was bullish years ago and stated what the price would do and why? One only need go back and review their prior yearly price forecasts to appreciate the fact almost all were, and have been, clueless. Even today most are neutral to bearish. The few who are bullish are only projecting a modest price rise this year.
(To be fair, the more lofty price projections from our camp, as in my own, have not materialized thus far either. However, we know why and who has prevented this. We also realize the continued price suppression scheme means that much higher gold prices down the road).
It’s the two planet story again. The mainstream gold world analysts/pundits ALL publicly analyze gold as if the central banks still have 28,000 tonnes of the stuff. The GATA camp does our analysis with the understanding/knowledge the central banks have around 16,000 tonnes or less in their vaults. We review the market as one which has been artificially suppressed for nearly a decade. The other planet people refuse to acknowledge the existence of The Gold Cartel and their price-capping scheme. And so on.
Therefore, it was no surprise at all to read this headline in a Dow Jones piece (see Appendix for the article) on the Bundesbank decision last evening:
DJ FOCUS: "Buba 8-Ton Gold Sale Neutral To Positive For Mkt"
Our camp saw the unexpected Bundesbank development (from the mainstream gold world’s prior expectations) as extremely positive. The other planet people basically yawned at the German decision, at least that was their response for public consumption. To reinforce the mainstream gold world analysis of the Bundesbank decision, The Gold Cartel went into action yesterday to make sure the gold price barely advanced, even though the euro was up over 100 points. With the euro up substantially since Friday early afternoon, gold has a net loss of 20 cents over the past two Comex sessions.
There is no need to rehash the GATA viewpoint as this has been covered to a healthy extent in the last two Midases. However, it is important to emphasize what GATA knows, as it has provided the most accurate analysis over the past three years of what the gold price was going to do and why. We have got it right so far. The mainstream gold world planet people have got it mostly wrong to-date.
Until their planet people fess up, or acknowledge, what has really occurred over the past decade as far as central bank gold is concerned, they will continue to get their analysis wrong. We will continue to get it right as far as where the gold price is going and why. This is what should be important for Café members to recognize.
The key to the gold market, the world gold trend, what lies ahead
Gold has been held by central banks as a reserve currency for a long time. For various reasons, including the urging of The Gold Cartel, a number of the western central banks have been dumping this gold via sales and lending/swap operations.
Since there is a 1500+ tonne annual supply deficit at the moment, these central banks cannot retrieve their lent gold without driving the price up hundreds of dollars per ounce. Thus, for all practical purposes, this gold is GONE until the price goes high enough that the peasants and gold holders of the world bring their scrap gold to the market place – AFTER the price of gold soars hundreds of dollars per ounce.
The western central banks who have disgorged their reserve gold the past few years to replace them with interest bearing dollar instruments as reserves have fared quite poorly. The price of gold keeps rising, while the dollar keeps falling. Thus, they have foregone the benefit of the gold price rise and lost money in their dollar reserve investments (despite interest earnings) because of the loss in the value of the dollar.
Rarely, except in the case of Britain’s pitiful auction sale of gold at $280, do we read articles how poor a decision the divestment of gold by central banks has been of late. Course, what can we expect when the mainstream gold world won’t even deal with how extensive the gold loan/swap operations have been over the past decade.
In the meantime, more and more evidence keeps popping up how "non-western" nations are accumulating gold. Some examples:
Romanian Commercial Bank Buys Gold From Population
Starting from Monday, the Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR) will buy from the population golden teeth, golden medals, golden bars, jewels or objects made from gold of at least 14k, a public announcement of the bank says. This is the first time after the second world war when a Romanian bank buys gold from the population using its own offices.
Concretely, the service will function in a similar way with the currency exchange service. BCR will show a quote for buying 24k gold every day, besides the quotes for foreign currency. If a client will sell gold inferior to 24k, the value will be reduced accordingly.
Those who want to sell gold objects may go to the specialised wickets of the bank branches. For the beginning the only BCR branch where gold will be bought is located on Lipscani Street in Bucharest city.
Adevarul, 20 dec 2004
-END-
21.12.2004 08:38:00 GMT
Bank of China is approved to launch individual gold trading
The Bank of China (BOC) officially announced it has received full approval from the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) to launch individual gold trading. The BOC was also granted permission to start spot gold trading for individual clients, an official surnamed Miao with the press department of the BOC confirmed to Interfax. The bank is one of the four leading state-owned commercial banks in China.
In contrast to the China Merchants Bank (CMB), which has China's largest individual gold trading network, the BOC does not sell gold bars but Olympic themed gold products.
According to the announcement of the BOC, as a sponsor for Beijing 2008 Olympic Game, the BOC will sell gold products with the theme of the Olympic Games, "to promote the Olympic spirit to the Chinese people" and provide an opportunity for customers to collect and invest in gold products, which could be regarded as type of gold trading. Clients can also sell those gold products back to the BOC to make profits. However, the announcement did not explain procedures for spot gold trading.
The BOC has actually already started trial operation of individual gold trading in its Shanghai Branch at the end of 2003, using the "Huang Jin Bao" system, meaning Gold Passbook. However, "Huang Jin Bao" is a type of virtual gold trading without real gold involved, operating on a passbook system where purchases and sales of gold are recorded in a ledger but no actual gold changes hands. Each transaction must be at least 10 grams of gold.
When asked whether the BOC was cooperating with any gold producer to supply the individual market, Miao declined to disclose any information. The China Merchants Bank (CMB) works with Gaosai'er Gold & Silver Co., Ltd (Gaosai'er) to sell Gaosai'er gold bars. "Gaosai'er has no intention in collaborating with the BOC to sell gold bars right now, " an official with the PR department of Gaosai'er declared to Interfax.
However, he revealed that the BOC would introduce "Huang Jin Bao" trading format, not the Olympic gold products as its main trading form around the country, as the Shanghai Branch of the BOC had used the "Huang Jin Bao" system for almost a year.
Actually, the BOC will continue to authorize other branches to launch "Huang Jin Bao" style trading in the following months, including Beijing in January 2005, according to information from the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM).
Although the CMB has a larger network, the BOC was actually the first bank be authorized by the CBRC to conduct individual trading. "The BOC was the only bank to be granted gold trading (to companies) before 2001. After the BOC, other banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were permitted," Miao said
-END-
Hopefully the point of this MIDAS exercise is clear. To foster a scheme first engineered by former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to implement his "strong dollar policy," a number of western central bank sheeples (and sheeple allies) have disgorged their gold reserves in some manner. At the same time demand for gold is surging in other countries around the world. John Brimelow has stoutly reported on surging Indian gold demand for some time. The Argentine central bank has been a substantial buyer. There is evidence which suggests the Russian central bank may have been a sizeable buyer. Then, there is China, which is just opening the gold market to its billion+ citizens.
Rubin’s calculated scheme is on its way to a bad end, for many reasons. As far as gold is concerned, The Gold Cartel is running out of available supply, while demand for gold is on the increase around the world. Cabal allies would like the investment world to believe the German move was a one-off move. However, it is more likely it will be one of a trend setting nature.
Those in the Bundesbank which opposed the gold sale probably know what is coming as far as the price is concerned. It is also more than likely the Germans have lent out half their gold. The concern of the bank may be more how to retrieve the lent gold than to sell even more of the stash they have left.
The bottom line is The Gold Cartel is in deep trouble. The extent of the coming price rise will tell us just how much.
The John Brimelow Report
Heavy ECB sales the culprit?
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.38, PM $ 7.83, with world gold at $442.85 and $442.25. Ample for legal imports. The Indian rupee hit a two week high today and the stock market reached another all time high. There seems every reason to expect the firm Indian bid for world gold to continue.
TOCOM continues indifferent. On volume equal to only 9,763 Comex lots (down 19%) open interest slipped another 359 lots. The active contract closed down 2 yen; world gold was 40c higher than the NY close, at $442.30. (NY yesterday traded 29,950 contracts; open interest was static - +517 contacts.)
Gold yesterday exhibited a particularly jagged pattern, with steady rises and sideways drifts being reversed by sudden selling torrents, referred to by ScotiaMocatta as "selling from overseas sources" and by Standard London as a "bout of investment bank selling" . References to seasonal slowdowns are common place; this did not however prevent a dramatic surge in base metals, in which nickel jumped 8% and zinc reached a five-year high. More likely, speculators sensed the gold market is capped.
The ECB weekly balance sheet supports this. "Gold and gold receivables" for the group fell by E341, or some $454 Mm last week. The ECB chooses not to publish this data by weight: depending on when it was sold this implies 31-32 tonnes of gold. This is ten times the amount normal since Washington Accord 2 took effect at the beginning of October, and double the previous largest quantity. It is possible this was all sold when gold was over $450 the previous week on a slightly deferred delivery. (Why would a proceeds-maximising seller accelerate so much after Wednesday Dec 8th’s dramatic break?) If so, it implies 15 tonnes a day, equal to a startling 3,750 tonne annual pace. Three captive Banks were said to be involved. Of course, if the WA2 is going to be respected, this pace could not be sustained beyond four months. But it is obvious $450 gold gets attention.
A measure of the importance of the Bundesbank’s refusal to sell gold, announced yesterday is the amount of time the noted bullion dealer bear, in his capacity as the leading Bear ideologically, devotes to trying to diminish it. He correctly highlights the German Finance Minister’s calculated indiscretion that the Bundesbank
"alone of the 15 central banks in the gold agreement is not exercising its sale option…"
insinuates the French will fill the gap, and tries to argue the Bundesbank will be forced by political pressure to bend. His observation
"A bull market might have risen $10 on this "news"…Ergo: this is no longer a bull market."
might well explain the spasms of violent selling seen yesterday.
Perhaps special selling efforts have robbed gold’s friends of an attractive close to the year. Maybe they will be consoled by how much happier fathers of Indian Brides vintage 2004 are than at the beginning of the month.
JB
