Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The John Brimelow Report

Gold is rallying in Euros; Two important AS ideas

Thursday, January 20, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.39, PM $8.29, with world gold at $422.70 and $421.55. Very ample for legal imports.

PM silver in India, by which time world silver was down to $6.53, had an ex-duty premium of 46c. Premiums in the upper 40s in the first week of this year triggered the air freighting of metal to India, a very rare event. Silver’s downside would seem to be limited.

Reuters comments from the Far East today diverged unusually widely from the subsequent market tone

"SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) -Investor buying at lower levels helped gold defy a firming dollar on Thursday and could boost its chances of breaking free from the current $421 to $424 an ounce range, dealers said.

"I think there are physical buyers getting in at these levels...just under $423," said one dealer in Singapore.."

TOKYO, Jan 20 (Reuters) –"… prices were supported by bargain-hunting… "We saw a lot of buying when gold fell to near 1,380 yen so we are not too worried about seeing it fall sharply from the present level," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, associate director at Nihon Unicom Corp.'s research section."

TOCOM is fact only traded the equivalent of 13,924 Comex lots (-5%). The active contract closed down 2 yen, but world gold went out 40c above NY. Open interest rose 768 Comex equivalent lots. Mitsubishi implies that the public increased their long by 2.1 tonnes. Quite possibly the key element in Japan at present is quiet buying of physical at 6-month low yen prices. (NY yesterday traded 46,054 lots. Open interest rose 414 lots.)

Yesterday, elements in NY tried to utilize a rally in the Euro to boost gold: running it up $2 in the first 30 minutes, $3.60 above the previous NY close. Whatever they encountered there completely demoralized them, and Refco Research too, which sold its’ 421 Feb gold long of the past week – bought with a $432 objective - on today’s opening. It appears the 100-day moving average has a formidable guardian in NY.

Nevertheless, gold in Euro terms has being resolutely edging up all week, in sharp contrast to the soggy performance since late November. Of course the primary physical buyer currencies are either fixed to the dollar – the Gulf – or independently firm (India) so were the Euro to soften this action would be to be expected, contrary perhaps to conventional commentary.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW had no oomph at all, closing at 10,471, down 68. The DOG was hammered again, dropping 28 to 2046. A break below 2,000 would be psychologically devastating to Wall Street bulls. Efforts to keep the US stock market buoyant going into and out of Inauguration time failed.

US economic news:

10:00 Dec. LEI reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.2%
Prior reading revised to 0.3% from 0.2%.
* * * * *

NEW YORK, Jan. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board reports today that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% in December, following a 0.3% increase in November and a 0.3% decline in October.
Says Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein: "After five straight declines, the leading economic indicators turned around in November and December. The coincident index remained positive. So too has the so-called shadow index -- the ratio of coincident to lagging indicators. This reflects a positive shift in the balance of forces -- a more positive picture in the last two months than in the prior five months. Although retail sales were modest in December, investment in equipment and homebuilding remain strong segments of the economy."…

-END-

12:00 Philadelphia Fed Index reported 13.2 vs. consensus 25
Prior reading revised to 25.4 from 29.6.
* * * * *

12:01 Follow-up: Philadelphia Fed prices paid index 66.1 vs. 53.8
New orders index 9.8 vs. 20.9
* * * * *

Fed will move aggressively to guard inflation-Poole

TUPELO, Miss, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. price pressures appear well controlled, but the Federal Reserve will move aggressively to protect low inflation if necessary, Fed Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said on Thursday.

Poole noted that core inflation had come in slightly below what the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had expected for the second half of 2004.

"Recent data, then, suggest that inflation is well controlled. The FOMC has emphasized that it is prepared, if necessary, to move more aggressively to protect the relatively low rates of core inflation that now exist," Poole said in a prepared speech to a Mississippi forecasting conference.

Poole said forecasts for economic growth -- as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) -- of 4 percent to 4.5 percent in 2005 were "pretty reasonable", but he warned high productivity and increased globalization may limit job creation.

"It seems likely that labor market conditions will continue to improve and that monthly employment gains will probably exceed by a comfortable margin the roughly 125,000 per month necessary to keep the unemployment rate constant," he said.

"It's an open question, though, whether we will return to the days when monthly employment gains of 200,000 per month or more were the norm, as they were during the last two business cycle expansions."

Job gains averaged about 186,000 a month in 2004, for total employment growth of 2.2 million, according to Labor Department figures.

-END-

But, there is no inflation:

Food Prices in New York in Biggest Leap in 14 Years

January 20, 2005
By JENNIFER STEINHAUER

Higher food prices and rising fuel costs drove the largest year-to-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for the New York region since 1990.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01…&ei=1&en=2f56ac617f9e5958

-END-

More goodies from:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Thursday Jan. 20, 2005 – Issue 3080 "Independent View of the News"

Wednesday was an ugly day for bulls – with technicals turning even uglier.

Bubblevision ‘experts’ were in a state of disbelief yesterday. They bemoaned that the stock market fell when the economic data was so wonderful.

Au contraire bubble boys & girls! The big drop in jobless claims has little to do with job growth. Data shows no wage or job growth. The drop in jobless is due to the exhaustion of unemployment benefits.

All day pundits extolled the wonderful housing start figures. Unfortunately, housing starts continue to soar (highest level in 7 years) even though mortgage applications and sales are faltering. Last year, we repeatedly warned that housing starts some months were about twice the pace of sales. Elementary math mandates a supply problem; and that’s what has unfolded. We also noted regularly that builders will continue to build as long as Easy Al remained promiscuous, no matter the inventory.

The Newtonian concept of inertia applies here. A trend will resist change until a requisite amount of force is imparted on it. Easy Al is now trying to gently tap the brakes on his speeding roadster.

Yesterday, Wall Street shills and fin media dolts heralded the absence of inflation as indicated in the CPI. As we have stated, 2004 was a seminal year in the perception of economic data. CPI and PPI were so askew with reality that an increasing number of people realized just how bogus government economic statistics have become. When we were screaming about Slick’s BLS venality, few people cared or heeded our warnings. We served as background amusement to soaring stock valuations. But after the bubble burst, the religion of bogus government economic accounting gained traction.

Ironically, if-when housing prices fall, the CPI will NOT reflect the decline even thought its depressing effect will impact the economy. About 1/3 of CPI is housing prices as reflected by imputed rent, not actual housing prices. Rents are not likely to fall as fast or as far as housing prices in a recession….

Warren Buffett, on CNBC yesterday, said that over the past year his businesses have seen "huge increases in raw material prices’; and he expects further inflation and a lower dollar.

These are the exact problems that vex Easy Al. Over a year ago, we warned that inflation and the lower dollar would force Easy Al to raise rates even though the US would be ebbing. It is now occurring.

If you’re looking for the real ‘new paradigm’, it’s exogenous forces to the US influencing commodity prices on a global basis. This means the US economy can contract while commodity prices increase. This cannot occur in many economic models. But then again, reality is a beach.

Fannie Mae cut its dividend in half in order to comply with new imposed capital requirements. The only thing keeping FNM and other financial stocks from tanking is investors are conditioned to believe that rallying bonds are good for financial stocks. They will soon learn that the forces(s) that can cause a bond rally can also cause economic & financial problems that become manifest in decimated financial assets.

Though most economists, traders and pundits are and have been negative on the bonds, Mr. Bond keeps rallying. Asian central bank buying, principally by the BoJ, kept bonds buoyant in 2004. In November, selling from perceived tax-haven countries, ergo hedge funds, hit a record $22.99B of US Treasuries according to recently released US Treasury data. The same month, Asian countries ex-Japan bought a record $15.78B of US Treasuries.

The past few months, softening global economic data impelled some investors into bonds. The January stock market swoon is also forcing bond buying. If the stock decline gathers momentum in the coming months, the bond market is likely to be the receptacle of the selling proceeds. This will further vex bond bears. But, after investors and traders flee to bonds solely because they’re not stocks, the conditions will be ripe for Mr. Bond to tumble. But by then most bond bears will be exhausted…

So far, 2005 is proceeding as we guessed with one major exception. There is little or no cash flowing into mutual funds to start the year. For the past decade or so, people and PMs learned to commit pension cash as quickly as possible in the new year to capture as much of the expected big Q1 rally as possible.

We figured that January would be bleak, at least in the first three weeks. But, other Januarys that started on the downside tended to have a good rally the final week when PMs committed the new cash. This might not occur because of the absence of new funds with cash levels already at record lows.

Furthermore, February could be a very telling and disturbing month. Forget about meager cash flowing into funds in February. The horror would be if redemptions occur. For the past two years, consumers either received or expected to receive tax refunds. With Bush safely elected and no refunds or rebates due, consumers might have to tap savings to pay for Christmas and other bills….

-END-

Speaking of Fannie Mae:

Fed Gov Poole rips Fannie in this recent speech:

http://stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2005/1_13_05.html

Perhaps they are trying to distance themselves from what is rapidly turning into a very foul-smelling mess. This week's GSE Report says that the Bush administration decided to go after Fannie because they didn't want another Enron during their 2d term, although this has the potential to be much worse.

Pool warns:

In my speech to the OFHEO conference almost two years ago, I emphasized the risk of systemic, world-wide financial crisis should either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac become insolvent.

The word "crisis" appears at least 10 times in this article, along with discussions of fat tails and Mandelbrot's work on fractal price movements.
Robert Blumen

Entwicklung von GLD-ETF:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/stein012005.html

In den letzten Tagen hat der Anteil an physischem Gold (bezogen auf den Wert der Papiere) zugenommen. Sie besitzen jetzt 142 to Gold.

New gold web site:

Dear Mr. Murphy,
As a dedicated subscriber to Le Metropole Café (eric.lemaire@sicrelemaire.fr) I have had, for a long time now, the pleasure to read your daily articles and must thank you for opening my eyes and introducing me to many aspects of the economic and monetary issues of our times.

But please let me introduce myself : I am a 41 years old French businessman with various mundane businesses with no relation to finance. My educational background is Law, Political Science and Business Administration and I have had the chance, 25 years ago to be an exchange student for a year in a delightful family in Birmingham, Ala.

I have decided to do implicate myself and contribute to spread the Gold and Silver story in Europe, where it seems it has been lost for a couple of generations. To achieve this objective, I have launched a new website whose objective will be to teach and inform its readers of the monetary and political issues of the world, and of the Gold and Silver issues.

It is a free site, simultaneously launched in three languages : English, French and Spanish. Each site is divided in three parts : Editorials, News and Technical Analysis, and news from mining companies.

I have the ambition for this site not to be the work of an educated amateur, but to be professional in its approach and its objectives. I have no political agenda, no other objective than to form and inform, and no other financial objective that eventually have the site pay for its expenses.

I shall be in Vancouver at the Resource and Investment Conference this week-end to launch this site, for meeting people, for personal interest and eventually to sell a few banners for the site.

I would be honoured to meet you and thank you in person not only for the extraordinary work and dedication you have had over the years at Le Metropole, but especially for all what you have brought to me.

In the meanwhile, if you have a second to look over it, here is my new website :

http://www.24hpm.com

Precious metal, 24 hours a day

You open the French and Spanish sites by clicking on the links. The site will open automatically in French in the French speaking countries, and in Spanish for the Spanish speaking countries.

I am test launching it this week, so I would be extremely grateful of any suggestions to improve it.

Hoping to have the chance to salute you in Vancouver.

With my best regards
Eric Lemaire

Good luck Eric and look forward to meeting you in Vancouver.

Well, it’s nothing to write home about, but the gold shares are resisting going down too much more. They could have been belted along with the general market today and they came back with a, "NO MAS."

At least the HUI did, closing up .15 to 204.45. The XAU dipped .41 to 93.52. Gold and silver bulls are hard to find. You got one here.

Off to Vancouver early in the morning.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

This is a dated yet easy-read piece; however, it hits home with me i.e. what has been running through my mind the past year or two:

DADDY, WHY DID WE HAVE TO ATTACK IRAQ?

A year 2003 story ...

Q: But after we invaded them, we STILL didn't find any weapons of mass destruction, did we?

A: That's because the weapons are so well hidden. Don't worry, we'll find something, probably right before the 2004 election.

Q: Why did Iraq want all those weapons of mass destruction?

A: To use them in a war, silly.

Q: I'm confused. If they had all those weapons that they planned to use in a war, then why didn't they use any of those weapons when we went to war with them?

A: Well, obviously they didn't want anyone to know they had those weapons, so they chose to die by the thousands rather than defend themselves.

Q: That doesn't make sense Daddy. Why would they choose to die if they had all those big weapons to fight us back with?

A: It's a different culture. It's not supposed to make sense.

Q: I don't know about you, but I don't think they had any of those weapons our government said they did.

A: Well, you know, it doesn't matter whether or not they had those weapons. We had another good reason to invade them anyway.

Q: And what was that?

A: Even if Iraq didn't have weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussein was a cruel dictator, which is another good reason to invade another country.

Q: Why? What does a cruel dictator do that makes it OK to invade his country?

A: Well, for one thing, he tortured his own people.

Q: Kind of like what they do in China?

A: Don't go comparing China to Iraq. China is a good economic competitor, where millions of people work for slave wages in sweatshops to make U.S. corporations richer.

Q: So if a country lets its people be exploited for American corporate gain, it's a good country, even if that country tortures people?

A: Right.

Q: Why were people in Iraq being tortured?

A: For political crimes, mostly, like criticizing the government. People who criticized the government in Iraq were sent to prison and tortured.

Q: Isn't that exactly what happens in China?

A: I told you, China is different.

Q: What's the difference between China and Iraq?

A: Well, for one thing, Iraq was ruled by the Ba'ath party, while China is Communist.

Q: Didn't you once tell me Communists were bad?

A: No, just Cuban Communists are bad.

Q: How are the Cuban Communists bad?

A: Well, for one thing, people who criticize the government in Cuba are sent to prison and tortured.

Q: Like in Iraq?

A: Exactly.

Q: And like in China, too?

A: I told you, China's a good economic competitor. Cuba, on the other hand, is not.

Q: How come Cuba isn't a good economic competitor?

A: Well, you see, back in the early 1960s, our government passed some laws that made it illegal for Americans to trade or do any business with Cuba until they stopped being Communists and started being capitalists like us.

Q: But if we got rid of those laws, opened up trade with Cuba, and started doing business with them, wouldn't that help the Cubans become capitalists?

A: Don't be a smart-ass.

Q: I didn't think I was being one.

A: Well, anyway, they also don't have freedom of religion in Cuba.

Q: Kind of like China and the Falun Gong movement?

A: I told you, stop saying bad things about China. Anyway, Saddam Hussein came to power through a military coup, so he's not really a legitimate leader anyway.

Q: What's a military coup?

A: That's when a military general takes over the government of a country by force, instead of holding free elections like we do in the United States.

Q: Didn't the ruler of Pakistan come to power by a military coup?

A: You mean General Pervez Musharraf? Uh, yeah, he did, but Pakistan is our friend.

Q: Why is Pakistan our friend if their leader is illegitimate?

A: I never said Pervez Musharraf was illegitimate.

Q: Didn't you just say a military general who comes to power by forcibly overthrowing the legitimate government of a nation is an illegitimate leader?

A: Only Saddam Hussein. Pervez Musharraf is our friend, because he helped us invade Afghanistan.

Q: Why did we invade Afghanistan?

A: Because of what they did to us on September 11th.

Q: What did Afghanistan do to us on September 11th?

A: Well, on September 11th, nineteen men, fifteen of them Saudi Arabians, hijacked four airplanes and flew three of them into buildings, killing over 3,000 Americans.

Q: So how did Afghanistan figure into all that?

A: Afghanistan was where those bad men trained, under the oppressive rule of the Taliban.

Q: Aren't the Taliban those bad radical Islamics who chopped off people's heads and hands?

A: Yes, that's exactly who they were. Not only did they chop off people's heads and hands, but they oppressed women, too.

Q: Didn't the Bush administration give the Taliban 43 million dollars back in May of 2001?

A: Yes, but that money was a reward because they did such a good job fighting drugs.

Q: Fighting drugs?

A: Yes, the Taliban were very helpful in stopping people from growing opium poppies.

Q: How did they do such a good job?

A: Simple. If people were caught growing opium poppies, the Taliban would have their hands and heads cut off.

Q: So, when the Taliban cut off people's heads and hands for growing flowers, that was OK, but not if they cut people's heads and hands off for other reasons?

A: Yes. It's OK with us if radical Islamic fundamentalists cut off people's hands for growing flowers, but it's cruel if they cut off people's hands for stealing bread.

Q: Don't they also cut off people's hands and heads in Saudi Arabia?

A: That's different. Afghanistan was ruled by a tyrannical patriarchy that oppressed women and forced them to wear burqas whenever they were in public, with death by stoning as the penalty for women who did not comply.

Q: Don't Saudi women have to wear burqas in public, too?

A: No, Saudi women merely wear a traditional Islamic body covering.

Q: What's the difference?

A: The traditional Islamic covering worn by Saudi women is a modest yet fashionable garment that covers all of a woman's body except for her eyes and fingers. The burqa, on the other hand, is an evil tool of patriarchal oppression that covers all of a woman's body except for her eyes and fingers.

Q: It sounds like the same thing with a different name.

A: Now, don't go comparing Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are our friends.

Q: But I thought you said 15 of the 19 hijackers on September 11th were from Saudi Arabia.

A: Yes, but they trained in Afghanistan.

Q: Who trained them?

A: A very bad man named Osama bin Laden.

Q: Was he from Afghanistan?

A: Uh, no, he was from Saudi Arabia too. But he was a bad man, a very bad man.

Q: I seem to recall he was our friend once.

A: Only when we helped him and the mujahadeen repel the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan back in the 1980s.

Q: Who are the Soviets? Was that the Evil Communist Empire Ronald Reagan talked about?

A: There are no more Soviets. The Soviet Union broke up in 1990 or thereabouts, and now they have elections and capitalism like us. We call them Russians now.

Q: So the Soviets, I mean, the Russians, are now our friends?

A: Well, not really. You see, they were our friends for many years after they stopped being Soviets, but then they decided not to support our invasion of Iraq, so we're mad at them now. We're also mad at the French and the Germans because they didn't help us invade Iraq either.

Q: So the French and Germans are evil, too?

A: Not exactly evil, but just bad enough that we had to rename French fries and French toast to Freedom Fries and Freedom Toast.

Q: Do we always rename foods whenever another country doesn't do what we want them to do?

A: No, we just do that to our friends. Our enemies, we invade.

Q: But wasn't Iraq one of our friends back in the 1980s?

A: Well, yeah. For a while.

Q: Was Saddam Hussein ruler of Iraq back then?

A: Yes, but at the time he was fighting against Iran, which made him our friend, temporarily.

Q: Why did that make him our friend?

A: Because at that time, Iran was our enemy.

Q: Isn't that when he gassed the Kurds?

A: Yeah, but since he was fighting against Iran at the time, we looked the other way, to show him we were his friend.

Q: So anyone who fights against one of our enemies automatically becomes our friend?

A: Most of the time, yes.

Q: And anyone who fights against one of our friends is automatically an enemy?

A: Sometimes that's true, too. However, if American corporations can profit by selling weapons to both sides at the same time, all the better.

Q: Why?

A: Because war is good for the economy, which means war is good for America. Also, since God is on America's side, anyone who opposes war is a godless un-American Communist. Do you understand now why we attacked Iraq?

Q: I think so. We attacked them because God wanted us to, right?

A: Yes.

Q: But how did we know God wanted us to attack Iraq?

A: Well, you see, God personally speaks to George W. Bush and tells him what to do.

Q: So basically, what you're saying is that we attacked Iraq because George W. Bush hears voices in his head?

A. Yes! You finally understand how the world works. Now close your
eyes, make yourself comfortable, and go to sleep. Good night.

Q: Good night, Daddy.

Das war bisher dein bester copy&paste hier.

Könnte es sein dass Thai ersoffen ist?

Vorhersage eines goldenes Zeitalters für Metallpreise:

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/whats_new/405196.htm

Goldreport von Vaughn:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1106319603.php

Interessant fand ich u.a., dass die USA nur noch 82 Metallminen haben. Im Jahre 2002 waren es noch 92 Minen.

Die Goldproduktion in den USA ging von 331 to (1993) auf 226 to (2003) zurück !

Der aktuelle Kursanstieg bei Silber ist auf Fondkäufe zurückzuführen:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…e=topNews&storyID=7396029

Ein guter Artikel von Taylor über die aktuelle Situation beim US-Dollar / amerikanische Wirtschaft vs. Gold:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor012105.html

Zusammenfassung:

• Anfang / Mitte Dezember gab es seitens Japan und Italien über die Botschafter deutliche Noten, dass der Dollar wieder stärker werden muß. Ansonsten wurden Maßnahmen angedroht (Verkauf von Dollar).
  

  
  

• Bush benötigt für die Beibehaltung des Supermachtstatus weiterhin den Dollar und muß nun Maßnahmen ergreifen, um den Dollar wieder zu stärken.
  

  
  

• Dies bedeutet, dass diese Maßnahmen wohl den US-Immobilienmarkt, Aktienmarkt und die Verschuldung betreffen werden. Hat er den Mut ?
  

  
  

• In diesem Szenario wird Gold eine zunehmende Rolle als Werterhalt einnehmen.

Finanzmarktanalyse von Gofsky:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/gofsky012105.html

• bullisch für Uran, Energieaktien, Gold und Silber
  

  
  

• Aufgrund des globalen Aus-/Aufbaus von Nuklearreaktoren wird der Uranverbrauch zunehmen.
  

  
  

• Hauptkatalysator für den deutlichen Anstieg der Gold-/Silberkurse ist ein Crash beim Bond-Markt und ein Anstieg der 10jährigen Bonds (beide sollte man in der nächsten Zeit sehr genau betrachten). Ebenso ein Crash im Aktienmarkt.
  

  
  

• Die asiatischen Staaten beginnen zu erkennen, dass Amerika ein massives fiskales und monetäres Problem hat.
  

  
  

• Das Niveau der Insiderverkäufe, die Aktien verkaufen, ist sehr hoch. Im August 2000 (vor dem Platzen der Tech-Blase) lag das Niveau bei 7,7 Mrd. $. Im November 2004 lag das Niveau bei 6 Mrd. $

Auffallend ist, dass die warnenden Stimmen in der letzten Zeit immer mehr zunehmen.

Ratespiel

Wer kennt die Lösungen des Ratespiels vom Zürick Club?

ANLAGE- EMPFEHLUNG 1:
Ein kleiner Diamanten-Produzent mit Nickel- und Kupferinteressen und einem KGV von weniger als 5!

Hintergrund:
Die Vorgänger-Gesellschaft gleichen Namens erlangte legendäre Berühmtheit, als sie für gigantische 4,4 Mrd. CAD in 1996 übernommen wurde. Jetzt kam das Dream-Team wieder zusammen, um wieder eine Erfolgsstory zu schreiben. Zu diesem Zweck wurde eine Reihe von Diamanten- und Nickel-Projekten erworben, und natürlich nach weiteren Vorkommen konsequent gesucht.

Wichtigste Triebfelder für den Aktienkurs ist das Qffshore-Projekt in einem afrikanischen Staat - in einem Joint-Venture (50/50) mit der Tochtergesellschaft von einem der weltweit größten Diamanten-Konglomerate. Seit Juni 2004 werden hier bereits Diamanten produziert.

In weiteren Ländern befinden sich Nickel- und Diamanten-Projekte in der Exploration.

Gewinnchance: Mindestens 100%!

ANLAGE- EMPFEHLUNG 2:
Dieser kanadische Gold-Explorer bietet Ihnen jede Unze Gold
für nur rund 15 US$ und damit spottbillig

Hintergrund: Der kanadische Gold-Explorer hat soeben die Ergebnisse seiner Durchführbarkeitsstudie für sein Goldprojekt in Kasachstan veröffentlicht.

Die Daten werte ich als positiv. Denn die Dominanz hin zur Gold- von der Kupferproduktion wird damit bestätigt. Die Investitionskosten werden von bislang angenommenen 123 Mio. US$ auf nunmehr 94 Mio. US$ reduziert. Die Kosten liegen - die Einnahmen durch die Kupferproduktion reduziert - in den ersten sechs Jahren bei 108 US$/Unze und bei 219 US$/Unze auf die gesamte Lebensdauer.

Ökonomisch förderbar sind aktuell 2,2 Mio. Unzen Gold und 216 Mio. Pfund Kupfer. Geplant ist auf dieser Basis eine Produktion von durchschnittlich 145.000 Unzen Gold.

Darüber hinaus gibt die Studie eine Goldressource von mehr als 3,8 Mio. Unzen Gold und 431 Mio. Pfund Kupfer an.

Zum aktuellen Kursniveau wird die Unze Gold mit nur etwa 15 US$/Unze spottbillig bewertet. An Liquidität sind zudem noch 12 Mio. US$ vorhanden.

Kurschance: geschätzte 200% - aber der Kurs beginnt bei Schluss dieser Ausgabe bereits davon zu springen - beeilen Sie sich daher!

und zuletzt: Wie lang dauerte der 30jährige Krieg?

ANLAGE-EMPFEHLUNG 3:
Ein kanadische Silber-Explorer mit gleich sechs Projekten im
traditionellen Silbergürtel Mexikos und guten Erfolgschancen

Hintergrund: Auf unserer jüngsten Mitgliederversammlung wurde der Chefredakteur Friedrich Lange gebeten, auch einige Silber-Explorer als Neuempfehlungen vorzustellen. Hintergrund ist, dass der Silberpreis sich im Rahmen einer Edelmetall-Hausse stärker entwickelt als der Goldpreis. Dies hat entsprechende Auswirkungen auf die Performance der entsprechenden Aktien.

Und hier ist ein kleiner Silber-Explorer, der relativ unbekannt ist und sich geographisch auf ein klassisches Silberland fokussiert hat: Mexiko.

Vorteile dieses Unternehmens sind ein erfahrenes Management- und Explorationsteam mit gleich sechs Silberzielen inmitten traditioneller Silberdistrikte Mexikos.

In der Region Juanicipio erwarb MAG Silver weiteres Explorationsgelände im Umfang von fast 100.000 ha. In den ersten Claims wurde mit Bohrungen vor wenigen Monaten begonnen. Auch in zwei weiteren Projekten wurden erste Bohrungen nach Silber eingeleitet.

Insgesamt verfügt der kanadische Explorer über drei weitere zusätzliche Explorationsgebiete in Mexiko, die traditionell Gold- und Silbervorräte enthalten.

Hier setzen Sie auf einen Silber-Explorer, der inmitten des traditionellen mexikanischen Silbergürtels gleich eine Reihe von Silberprojekten betreibt. Für den Erfolg sprechen die Lage der Projekte und das erfahrene Team.

Kurs-Chance: Als Kursziel betrachte ich vorsichtig den Höchstkurs der vergangenen 52 Wochen, was eine Kurschance von rund 150% eröffnet.

Weiß nicht, ob hier schon darauf hingewiesen wurde: Douglas Kanarowski hat einen neuen Silberartikel geschrieben.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/images/titles/search.gif]

ONE DOZEN SILVER INVESTOR MISTAKES
by Douglas Kanarowski
January 6, 2005

My first three essays were an attempt to help the general investment community understand the evolving silver story. [See] This essay is specifically directed at today’s silver investor.

By and large, the silver investment community is blessed with several first-class spokesmen and top-notch professional analysts. Among those more actively carrying the silver torch are: Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Ted Butler, Doug Casey, Jim Dines, Jason Hommel, David Morgan and Jim Puplava. I read virtually everything in print about silver and on occasion I think I see a few problems and note a few omissions, thus the following.

1. USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS …. IS WRONG!

Technical analysis usually plays a major part in most of my investment decisions. I rely on TA about 98% of the time. But the important question here is, “What about the remaining 2%?” In other words, “In what circumstances should technical analysis not be trusted?” Take a moment and give it some thought. Done thinking? My answer is, “in a market where both a sustained and large price distortion has taken place.” In my view, looking at a technical chart of silver’s price history is akin to looking at one of those pre-Columbus flat-maps of the world. Both contain just enough sketchy information to give them the appearance of truth. In reality, both are an illusion. They are fraudulent. Leave it to Professor Edga Macation to remind us that if the basic laws of supply and demand are not controlling the market price of the product, then the data inputs used to construct a price chart are also erroneous, resulting in an erroneous chart. Duh! In other words (stated in reverse), if we really had a free market in silver, the chart would look nothing like the silver charts that “the experts” pour over today …. plotting imaginary moving averages, identifying resistance levels and drawing fictional uptrend channels to name a few. More below.

2. PLACING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON “OUNCES IN THE GROUND.”

Certainly, knowing the number of silver ounces in the ground is an “important” piece of information in assessing a silver project. However, knowing the answers to many other key questions are also “important.” For example: What country is the deposit in? Geopolitical risk? What did the property cost? Why did the other guy sell it? At what cost? Proximity to infrastructure? How deep is it? Open pit or underground? Ore grades? Recovery percentages? By-product credits? Cost to build the mine? What royalties are in place? What is the all-in cost of production? Who are the principals running the show? Etc, etc, etc. I recently read a promotion for a mineral deposit that had some meaningful “ounces in the ground.” In reading the “fine print” I discovered that the “wonder deposit” was located 350 air miles from the nearest small town where you might be lucky to buy a screwdriver. I not only became very un-interested in the property, I also became very un-interested in the company and the people that were so loudly promoting this package. To make it simple, instead of “ounces in the ground,” I suggest, “Will the prospect likely become an economically productive mine?” Not an easy question to answer. However, if you can answer my question, you probably have done enough homework to make a fairly sound investment decision.
...

Oh,oh, das geht gegen Jason Hommel!
Weiter...

Ein etwas skeptischerer Artikel über Silber von Willis:
Silver As An Investment: My .0031 Ounces Worth
J. Kent Willis, AGAPI Financial LLC, 2005
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willis011805.html

# All,

Marc Fabers neue Meldung zu Gold im Zürich Club.

Wer auf Nummer sicher gehen will, sollte auf Gold setzen!,denn Gold hat das Potenial über 1000$ zu gehen in den nächsten Jahren!

In der ´Schweizer Finanzen & Wirtschaft vom 21.01.05 rät er seinen Anlegern Dollar zukaufen und von Gold wird abgeraten? Was ist nun gemeint?
Schätze Marc Faber, habe ihn auf Seminaren kennengelernt,bin mir aber über diese wiedersprüchliche Aussage im Zweifel.

gruß hpoth

Eine Analyse, in der die Argumente zusammengefaßt sind, ob jetzt der richtige Kaufzeitpunkt bei Gold / Silber ist:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/bloom012205.html

Für die Optimisten ist jetzt der Kaufzeitpunkt erreicht.