Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Only another Hail Mary rally saved the DOW from a big hit. Down 70 with an hour to go, it shot up 50 points before settling back to 10,647, down 31. The DOG was firmer most of the day and closed up 1 at 2047.
The dollar rose .08 to 83.45, along with the British pound, up .0066 to 1.8827, and the yen which rose to 103.14. The euro fell .35 to 130.43.

08:30 Dec. Durable Goods Orders reported 0.6% vs. consensus 0.7%; ex-Transportation 2.1% vs. consensus 1.3%
Prior Durable Goods revised to 1.8% from 1.4%; prior ex-Trans. revised to (0.9%) from (1.4%).
* * * * *

08:30 Jobless claims reported 325K vs. consensus 332K
Prior week revised to 318K from 319K.
* * * * *

10:00 Dec. Help Wanted Index reported 38 vs. consensus 37
Prior reading 36.
* * * * *

Some input from Jesse on what is really going on:

Is the US Treasury conducting open market operations independent of the Federal Reserve?

Yes. No matter what rationale one may wish to apply, the Treasury is providing repo money in terms and duration and amounts to be directly influencing the money supply and financial assets on a par with the Federal Reserve. Most are completely unaware that this has begun. The reason given for starting this program was to provide a 'better return' on Treasury receipts from the surplus. Interesting that the repos are still being done at the same time that the Treasury is issuing new short term debt.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/TreasuryOMO.gif

-END-

Barclays' new gold security to launch on Friday

Thu Jan 27, 2005 11:19 AM ET NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Barclays Global Investors said on Thursday its new gold security, iShares COMEX Gold Trust, will launch on the American Stock Exchange on Friday under the ticker symbol IAU.

-END-

Another GLD to aid The Gold Cartel? Barclays has been the most visible GOLD BEAR of all among world financial houses over the past 7 years. We shall see.

Rhody on leasing:

Good morning Bill:
Backwardation in gold lease rates continues to intensify, with yields now reversed beyond the 3 month term to the 6 month. Given that these rates are "subsidized" by the monetary interests, the surge in gold lease rates must be noted, not for its intensity, but for its amplitude. Something is really roiling the financial markets. I think it's the pending G7 meeting. The PPT is making a major effort to keep gold below $430, and preferably near $422.

Because of the rise in near term gold rates, the silver rates near term are only 2 1/2 to 3 times that of gold, while the one year rates for silver are a more normal 5 to 6 times gold.

Never underestimate the power of these lease markets as a manipulative tool. During the Buffett silver price spike of 1998, the spot price of silver doubled to over $8, but lease rates were in excess backwardation to over 70% in the one month term. 70%! Since the one month term is now .32%, this represents a 220 fold increase. But spot prices merely doubled! Clearly, most of the tightness in the physical silver market was absorbed into a lease rate spike, leaving little for the average silver investor or mining company.

Don't look now, but silver prices have doubled again. Did this most recent surge in spot metal prices also generate 70% lease rates???? No. The reason for lack of a lease rate response to the most recent increase in the silver price could be two fold. One, a doubling of spot prices means nothing if the medium of exchange has been shrinking in value at almost the same rate. There has been no surge in lease rates since 2000 because the present price of silver is actually less than it was in 2000, if you adjust for inflation. Alternatively, one could say, that if lessors believe that silver is in a bull market (perception is the reality), then borrowing silver right now is a very dangerous thing to do, because one will have to buy it back to return metal to owner at a higher price, plus pay the interest (which is in metal, not paper). This could be an excruciatingly expensive thing to do, given the tightness in the physical market. So, people who would normally lease are withdrawing from the activity, which causes rates to fall. Still, leasing is a powerful tool of the establishment. Provided there are still stockpiles available to central banks, and provided they are willing to risk losing their metal, leased silver is capable of crushing any rally, particularly if combined with a futures campaign. Rhody

China gold news:

Gold output sets new record
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2005-01-27 16:49

China produced 212.35 tons of gold in 2004, setting a new annual record, according to the China Gold Association.

East China's Shandong Province remained the country's largest gold producing area with 64.5 tons of gold output in 2004. Other major gold producing areas include Henan, Fujian, Shaanxi, Liaoning and Hebei.

An official with the association said China's gold production had experienced fast growth since the mid-1990s. China produced only 90 tons of gold in 1994.

"Growth of China's gold industry faces a golden opportunity," said an official with the association. "China has a huge population of 1.3 billion and the Chinese economy grows very fast."

According to the association, China is the world's fourth largest gold producer and consumer.

-END-

First Associates Investments Limited came out with a positive report on Golden Star Resources ($3.79, up 7 cents). They see what I see, except my price objective is much, much higher:

Golden Star Resources.pdf (200K)

The gold shares continue to trade in limbo. The XAU lost .43 to 92.07. The only plus of the day was the HUI bounced off 200 again, closing at 203.33, up .23.
HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/01/26/1450204

Wednesday, January 26th, 2005
Seymour Hersh: "We've Been Taken Over by a Cult"

We turn now to Pulitzer prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh. Hersh first exposed the Abu Ghraib torture scandal in the New Yorker magazine in April 2004 and is author of "Chain of Command: The Road From 9/11 to Abu Ghraib."

Seymour Hersh

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRANSCRIPT

AMY GOODMAN: We turn now to Seymour Hersh, Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter, author of the book, Chain Of Command: The Road From 9-11 to Abu Ghraib. He spoke recently at the Stephen Wise Free Synagogue in New York.

SEYMOUR HERSH: About what's going on in terms of the President is that as virtuous as I feel, you know, at The New Yorker, writing an alternative history more or less of what's been going on in the last three years, George Bush feels just as virtuous in what he is doing. He is absolutely committed -- I don't know whether he thinks he's doing God's will or what his father didn't do, or whether it's some mandate from -- you know, I just don't know, but George Bush thinks this is the right thing. He is going to continue doing what he has been doing in Iraq. He's going to expand it, I think, if he can. I think that the number of body bags that come back will make no difference to him. The body bags are rolling in. It makes no difference to him, because he will see it as a price he has to pay to put America where he thinks it should be. So, he's inured in a very strange way to people like me, to the politicians, most of them who are too cowardly anyway to do much. So, the day-to-day anxiety that all of us have, and believe me, though he got 58 million votes, many of people who voted for him weren't voting for continued warfare, but I think that's what we're going to have.

It's hard to predict the future. And it's sort of silly to, but the question is: How do you go to him? How do you get at him? What can you do to maybe move him off the course that he sees as virtuous and he sees as absolutely appropriate? All of us -- you have to -- I can't begin to exaggerate how frightening the position is -- we're in right now, because most of you don't understand, because the press has not done a very good job. The Senate Intelligence Committee, the new bill that was just passed, provoked by the 9/11 committee actually, is a little bit of a kabuki dance, I guess is what I want to say, in that what it really does is it consolidates an awful lot of power in the Pentagon -- by statute now. It gives Rumsfeld the right to do an awful lot of things he has been wanting to do, and that is basically man hunting and killing them before they kill us, as Peter said. "They did it to us. We've got to do it to them." That is the attitude that -- at the very top of our government exists. And so, I'll just tell you a couple of things that drive me nuts. We can -- you know, there's not much more to go on with.

I think there's a way out of it, maybe. I can tell you one thing. Let's all forget this word "insurgency". It's one of the most misleading words of all. Insurgency assumes that we had gone to Iraq and won the war and a group of disgruntled people began to operate against us and we then had to do counter-action against them. That would be an insurgency. We are fighting the people we started the war against. We are fighting the Ba'athists plus nationalists. We are fighting the very people that started -- they only choose to fight in different time spans than we want them to, in different places. We took Baghdad easily. It wasn't because be won. We took Baghdad because they pulled back and let us take it and decided to fight a war that had been pre-planned that they're very actively fighting. The frightening thing about it is, we have no intelligence. Maybe it's -- it's -- it is frightening, we have no intelligence about what they're doing. A year-and-a-half ago, we're up against two and three-man teams. We estimated the cells operating against us were two and three people, that we could not penetrate. As of now, we still don't know what's coming next. There are 10, 15-man groups. They have terrific communications. Somebody told me, it's -- somebody in the system, an officer -- and by the way, the good part of it is, more and more people are available to somebody like me.

There's a lot of anxiety inside the -- you know, our professional military and our intelligence people. Many of them respect the Constitution and the Bill of Rights as much as anybody here, and individual freedom. So, they do -- there's a tremendous sense of fear. These are punitive people. One of the ways -- one of the things that you could say is, the amazing thing is we are been taken over basically by a cult, eight or nine neo-conservatives have somehow grabbed the government. Just how and why and how they did it so efficiently, will have to wait for much later historians and better documentation than we have now, but they managed to overcome the bureaucracy and the Congress, and the press, with the greatest of ease. It does say something about how fragile our Democracy is. You do have to wonder what a Democracy is when it comes down to a few men in the Pentagon and a few men in the White House having their way. What they have done is neutralize the C.I.A. because there were people there inside -- the real goal of what Goss has done was not attack the operational people, but the intelligence people. There were people -- serious senior analysts who disagree with the White House, with Cheney, basically, that's what I mean by White House, and Rumsfeld on a lot of issues, as somebody said, the goal in the last month has been to separate the apostates from the true believers. That's what's happening. The real target has been "diminish the agency." I'm writing about all of this soon, so I don't want to overdo it, but there's been a tremendous sea change in the government. A concentration of power.

On the other hand, the facts -- there are some facts. We can't win this war. We can do what he's doing. We can bomb them into the stone ages. Here's the other horrifying, sort of spectacular fact that we don't really appreciate. Since we installed our puppet government, this man, Allawi, who was a member of the Mukabarat, the secret police of Saddam, long before he became a critic, and is basically Saddam-lite. Before we installed him, since we have installed him on June 28, July, August, September, October, November, every month, one thing happened: the number of sorties, bombing raids by one plane, and the number of tonnage dropped has grown exponentially each month. We are systematically bombing that country. There are no embedded journalists at Doha, the Air Force base I think we're operating out of. No embedded journalists at the aircraft carrier, Harry Truman. That's the aircraft carrier that I think is doing many of the operational fights. There's no air defense, It's simply a turkey shoot. They come and hit what they want. We know nothing. We don't ask. We're not told. We know nothing about the extent of bombing. So if they're going to carry out an election and if they're going to succeed, bombing is going to be key to it, which means that what happened in Fallujah, essentially Iraq -- some of you remember Vietnam -- Iraq is being turn into a "free-fire zone" right in front of us. Hit everything, kill everything. I have a friend in the Air Force, a Colonel, who had the awful task of being an urban bombing planner, planning urban bombing, to make urban bombing be as unobtrusive as possible. I think it was three weeks ago today, three weeks ago Sunday after Fallujah I called him at home. I'm one of the people -- I don't call people at work. I call them at home, and he has one of those caller I.D.'s, and he picked up the phone and he said, "Welcome to Stalingrad." We know what we're doing. This is deliberate. It's being done. They're not telling us. They're not talking about it.

We have a President that -- and a Secretary of State that, when a trooper -- when a reporter or journalist asked -- actually a trooper, a soldier, asked about lack of equipment, stumbled through an answer and the President then gets up and says, "Yes, they should all have good equipment and we're going to do it," as if somehow he wasn't involved in the process. Words mean nothing -- nothing to George Bush. They are just utterances. They have no meaning. Bush can say again and again, "well, we don't do torture." We know what happened. We know about Abu Ghraib. We know, we see anecdotally. We all understand in some profound way because so much has come out in the last few weeks, the I.C.R.C. The ACLU put out more papers, this is not an isolated incident what's happened with the seven kids and the horrible photographs, Lynndie England. That's into the not the issue is. They're fall guys. Of course, they did wrong. But you know, when we send kids to fight, one of the things that we do when we send our children to war is the officers become in loco parentis. That means their job in the military is to protect these kids, not only from getting bullets and being blown up, but also there is nothing as stupid as a 20 or 22-year-old kid with a weapon in a war zone. Protect them from themselves. The spectacle of these people doing those antics night after night, for three and a half months only stopped when one of their own soldiers turned them in tells you all you need to know, how many officers knew. I can just give you a timeline that will tell you all you need to know. Abu Ghraib was reported in January of 2004 this year. In May, I and CBS earlier also wrote an awful lot about what was going on there. At that point, between January and May, our government did nothing. Although Rumsfeld later acknowledged that he was briefed by the middle of January on it and told the President. In those three-and-a-half months before it became public, was there any systematic effort to do anything other than to prosecute seven "bad seeds", enlisted kids, reservists from West Virginia and the unit they were in, by the way, Military Police. The answer is, Ha! They were basically a bunch of kids who were taught on traffic control, sent to Iraq, put in charge of a prison. They knew nothing. It doesn't excuse them from doing dumb things. But there is another framework. We're not seeing it. They've gotten away with it.

So here's the upside of the horrible story, if there is an upside. I can tell you the upside in a funny way, in an indirect way. It comes from a Washington Post piece this week. A young boy, a Marine, 25-year-old from somewhere in Maryland died. There was a funeral in the Post, a funeral in Washington, and the Post did a little story about it. They quoted -- his name was Hodak. His father was quoted. He had written to a letter in the local newspaper in Southern Virginia. He had said about his son, he wrote a letter just describing what it was like after his son died. He said, "Today everything seems strange. Laundry is getting done. I walked my dog. I ate breakfast. Somehow I'm still breathing and my heart is still beating. My son lies in a casket half a world away." There's going to be -- you know, when I did My Lai -- I tell this story a lot. When I did the My Lai story, more than a generation ago, it was 35 years ago, so almost two. When I did My Lai, one of the things that I discovered was that they had -- for some of you, most of you remember, but basically a group of American soldiers -- the analogy is so much like today. Then as now, our soldiers don't see enemies in a battlefield, they just walk on mines or they get shot by snipers, because It's always hidden. There's inevitable anger and rage and you dehumanize the people. We have done that with enormous success in Iraq. They're "rag-heads". They're less than human. The casualty count -- as in Sudan, equally as bad. Staggering numbers that we're killing. In any case, you know, it's -- in this case, these -- a group of soldiers in 1968 went into a village. They had been in Vietnam for three months and lost about 10% of their people, maybe 10 or 15 to accidents, killings and bombings, and they ended up -- they thought they would meet the enemy and there were 550 women, children and old men and they executed them all. It took a day. They stopped in the middle and they had lunch. One of the kids who had done a lot of shooting. The Black and Hispanic soldiers, about 40 of them, there were about 90 men in the unit -- the Blacks and Hispanics shot in the air. They wouldn't shoot into the ditch. They collected people in three ditches and just began to shoot them. The Blacks and Hispanics shot up in the air, but the mostly White, lower middle class, the kids who join the Army Reserve today and National Guard looking for extra dollars, those kind of kids did the killing. One of them was a man named Paul Medlow, who did an awful lot of shooting. The next day, there was a moment -- one of the things that everybody remembered, the kids who were there, one of the mothers at the bottom of a ditch had taken a child, a boy, about two, and got him under her stomach in such a way that he wasn't killed. When they were sitting having the K rations -- that's what they called them -- MRE's now -- the kid somehow crawled up through the [inaudible] screaming louder and he began -- and Calley, the famous Lieutenant Calley, the Lynndie England of that tragedy, told Medlow: Kill him, "Plug him," he said. And Medlow somehow, who had done an awful lot as I say, 200 bullets, couldn't do it so Calley ran up as everybody watched, with his carbine. Officers had a smaller weapon, a rifle, and shot him in the back of the head. The next morning, Medlow stepped on a mine and he had his foot blown off. He was being medevac'd out. As he was being medevac'd out, he cursed and everybody remembered, one of the chilling lines, he said, "God has punished me, and he's going to punish you, too."

So a year-and-a-half later, I'm doing this story. And I hear about Medlow. I called his mother up. He lived in New Goshen, Indiana. I said, "I'm coming to see you. I don't remember where I was, I think it was Washington State. I flew over there and to get there, you had to go to – I think Indianapolis and then to Terre Haute, rent a car and drive down into the Southern Indiana, this little farm. It was a scene out of Norman Rockwell's. Some of you remember the Norman Rockwell paintings. It's a chicken farm. The mother is 50, but she looks 80. Gristled, old. Way old – hard scrabble life, no man around. I said I'm here to see your son, and she said, okay. He's in there. He knows you're coming. Then she said, one of these great -- she said to me, "I gave them a good boy. And they sent me back a murderer." So you go on 35 years. I'm doing in The New Yorker, the Abu Ghraib stories. I think I did three in three weeks. If some of you know about The New Yorker, that's unbelievable. But in the middle of all of this, I get a call from a mother in the East coast, Northeast, working class, lower middle class, very religious, Catholic family. She said, I have to talk to you. I go see her. I drive somewhere, fly somewhere, and her story is simply this. She had a daughter that was in the military police unit that was at Abu Ghraib. And the whole unit had come back in March, of -- The sequence is: they get there in the fall of 2003. Their reported after doing their games in the January of 2004. In March she is sent home. Nothing is public yet. The daughter is sent home. The whole unit is sent home. She comes home a different person. She had been married. She was young. She went into the Reserves, I think it was the Army Reserves to get money, not for college or for -- you know, these -- some of these people worked as night clerks in pizza shops in West Virginia. This not -- this is not very sophisticated. She came back and she left her husband. She just had been married before. She left her husband, moved out of the house, moved out of the city, moved out to another home, another apartment in another city and began working a different job. And moved away from everybody. Then over -- as the spring went on, she would go every weekend, this daughter, and every weekend she would go to a tattoo shop and get large black tattoos put on her, over increasingly -- over her body, the back, the arms, the legs, and her mother was frantic. What's going on? Comes Abu Ghraib, and she reads the stories, and she sees it. And she says to her daughter, "Were you there?" She goes to the apartment. The daughter slams the door. The mother then goes -- the daughter had come home -- before she had gone to Iraq, the mother had given her a portable computer. One of the computers that had a DVD in it, with the idea being that when she was there, she could watch movies, you know, while she was overseas, sort of a -- I hadn't thought about it, a great idea. Turns out a lot of people do it. She had given her a portable computer, and when the kid came back she had returned it, one of the things, and the mother then said I went and looked at the computer. She knows -- she doesn't know about depression. She doesn't know about Freud. She just said, I was just -- I was just going to clean it up, she said. I had decided to use it again. She wouldn't say anything more why she went to look at it after Abu Ghraib. She opened it up, and sure enough there was a file marked "Iraq". She hit the button. Out came 100 photographs. They were photographs that became -- one of them was published. We published one, just one in The New Yorker. It was about an Arab. This is something no mother should see and daughter should see too. It was the Arab man leaning against bars, the prisoner naked, two dogs, two shepherds, remember, on each side of him. The New Yorker published it, a pretty large photograph. What we didn't publish was the sequence showed the dogs did bite the man -- pretty hard. A lot of blood. So she saw that and she called me, and away we go. There's another story.

For me, it's just another story, but out of this comes a core of -- you know, we all deal in "macro" in Washington. On the macro, we're hopeless. We're nowhere. The press is nowhere. The congress is nowhere. The military is nowhere. Every four-star General I know is saying, "Who is going to tell them we have no clothes?" Nobody is going to do it. Everybody is afraid to tell Rumsfeld anything. That's just the way it is. It's a system built on fear. It's not lack of integrity, it's more profound than that. Because there is individual integrity. It's a system that's completely been taken over -- by cultists. Anyway, what's going to happen, I think, as the casualties mount and these stories get around, and the mothers see the cost and the fathers see the cost, as the kids come home. And the wounded ones come back, and there's wards that you will never hear about. That's wards -- you know about the terrible catastrophic injuries, but you don't know about the vegetables. There's ward after ward of vegetables because the brain injuries are so enormous. As you maybe read last week, there was a new study in one of the medical journals that the number of survivors are greater with catastrophic injuries because of their better medical treatment and the better armor they have. So you get more extreme injuries to extremities. We're going to learn more and I think you're going to see, it's going to -- it's -- I'm trying to be optimistic. We're going to see a bottom swelling from inside the ranks. You're beginning to see it. What happened with the soldiers asking those questions, you may see more of that. I'm not suggesting we're going to have mutinies, but I'm going to suggest you're going to see more dissatisfaction being expressed. Maybe that will do it. Another salvation may be the economy. It's going to go very bad, folks. You know, if you have not sold your stocks and bought property in Italy, you better do it quick. And the third thing is Europe -- Europe is not going to tolerate us much longer. The rage there is enormous. I'm talking about our old-fashioned allies. We could see something there, collective action against us. Certainly, nobody -- it's going to be an awful lot of dancing on our graves as the dollar goes bad and everybody stops buying our bonds, our credit -- our -- we're spending $2 billion a day to float the debt, and one of these days, the Japanese and the Russians, everybody is going to start buying oil in Euros instead of dollars. We're going to see enormous panic here. But he could get through that. That will be another year, and the damage he's going to do between then and now is enormous. We're going to have some very bad months ahead.

-END-

It is only a matter to time now; days, weeks, months. The smoke signals are billowing, the war drums are growing louder and louder. From the Asian Times:

Central banks dump dollar for euro
By Emad Mekay

WASHINGTON - Central banks around the world are getting rid of the US dollar in favor of the euro in a bid to stem losses from the declining greenback, an international survey reveals. The survey says that more than two-thirds of central banks have increased their exposure to the euro in the past two years, mainly at the expense of the dollar. The report also finds that over half the central banks surveyed now find euro-zone money and debt markets as attractive for investors as those of the United States.

Titled "Management Trends 2005", the report was published by the London-based Central Banking Publications Ltd. It surveyed 65 central bank reserve managers who control reserve assets worth $1.7 trillion, between September and December 2004. The survey was sponsored by the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Since early November, the dollar has hit record lows against the euro almost every week, with a brief lull last month. The greenback is now at 10-year lows against almost all other major traded currencies - the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Swedish krona, Danish krone and Canadian dollar. A euro that cost only 84 cents in June 2002, and $1.21 last September, now costs about $1.30.

The decline is mainly powered by the US current account deficit, or the gap in trade in goods and services, investment returns and one-way financial transfers between the United States and the rest of the world. Analysts say the currency's plunge is also a sign of how negatively the world has come to view the central bank reserve managers who control reserve assets worth $1.7 trillion, between September and December 2004. The survey was sponsored by the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Since early November, the dollar has hit record lows against the euro almost every week, with a brief lull last month. The greenback is now at 10-year lows against almost all other major traded currencies - the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Swedish krona, Danish krone and Canadian dollar. A euro that cost only 84 cents in June 2002, and $1.21 last September, now costs about $1.30.

The decline is mainly powered by the US current account deficit, or the gap in trade in goods and services, investment returns and one-way financial transfers between the United States and the rest of the world. Analysts say the currency's plunge is also a sign of how negatively the world has come to view the debt-ridden fiscal policies of the George W Bush administration, which has drained much of the surplus it inherited from the Clinton coffers. The current administration has turned a $236.4 billion surplus into a $413 billion deficit.

Some economists have predicted a stampede away from the dollar and to the euro. The oft-heard suggestion, which many appear to support, is that the drop could erode the dollar's 60-year role as the world's reserve currency. The report, released on Monday, is the first concrete evidence that major central banks are indeed taking that step. "It's a smart move on their part to move not just to the euro, they can also buy the yen. They can even buy gold or move to a whole mix of assets to get away from the dollar, which is overvalued," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. "It's going to have to fall eventually. The question is when."

While central banks will continue to some extent to finance the US current account deficit through buying US securities, the United States cannot rely on this source of financing to the same extent as in the past, said the survey. "Diversification from dollar-denominated to euro-denominated assets appears to be taking place more rapidly than had been anticipated two years ago," it said.

The trend is likely to continue, with some economists arguing that the dollar needs to decline by another 15-20% in order to cut the current account deficit to a reasonable level. Most of this correction should take place against Asian currencies, which will require China to revalue its exchange rate against the dollar by about 20%, according to C Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute of International Economics (IIE) in Washington.

Because central banks have been accumulating dollars over a long period, the current decline may not look that steep. "It doesn't particularly surprise me that at least some central banks are unloading their dollar holdings," said Steve H Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington. "The expectation was that as soon as the euro currency came out, there would be some diversification in central banks' portfolios, independent of the trends in the euro value versus the dollar and things like that."

Most of this correction should take place against Asian currencies, which will require China to revalue its exchange rate against the dollar by about 20%, according to C Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute of International Economics (IIE) in Washington.

Because central banks have been accumulating dollars over a long period, the current decline may not look that steep. "It doesn't particularly surprise me that at least some central banks are unloading their dollar holdings," said Steve H Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington. "The expectation was that as soon as the euro currency came out, there would be some diversification in central banks' portfolios, independent of the trends in the euro value versus the dollar and things like that."

But the fall could quickly turn into a major plunge if panic spreads among private investors and moves on to infect central banks, some economists say. If China and Japan, two countries with the biggest dollar reserves, decide even to dump some of their dollar assets, the dollar is likely to collapse completely and go down far more than just the anticipated maximum of an extra 20%. "The timing of any drastic move by big players is very hard to predict," Weisbrot said. "China and Japan for example, either one of those, can cause a complete crash, a total collapse of the dollar just by selling a small portion of their reserves. In fact, probably they won't have to sell their reserves, all they have to do is stop accumulating or slow down their rate of accumulation and it will be a dollar crash."

(Inter Press Service)
Jan 27
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA27Dj01.html

IT'S ABOUT TIME !

Thanks for the good news,it makes my day.

Mittlerweilen lagern Goldbarren in einem Wert von 1,5 Mrd. Dollar in den Tressoren. Das britische und US-ETF haben zusammen 212 to angehäuft. Dies entspricht 7,5 % der Gold-Weltjahresminenproduktion:

http://business.timesonline.co…%2C8209-1460595%2C00.html

Koennen mir einige Profi's hier etwas aufklaeren ? :

Es gibt die ETF (GLG) in New York und die von WGC in London (GBS).
Ich lese oft Berichte ueber die Sicherheiten fuer den Anleger die beide so anbieten. Ich zumindest ""glaube"" , dass GBS sicherer ist. Erstmal weniger volumen vorhanden ist und daher weniger schundluder betrieben kann falls HSBC die ihr Lager in New York haben es anders handhaben und eventuell eine zweite Crimex daraus machen koennen.
Viele raten nur zum physischen Besitz,am besten im Garten vergraben da man wie damals der Staat es schnappen kann und den Handel verbietet. Thanks !

Don't trust a trust or a trustee, sagen viele.

XGX

Silbertaler
Die 1,5 Mrd. sind Pfund.

Inzwischen hat der Streettrack GLD über 2 MRD USD:

Total Gold in Trust:
Tonnes: 152.03
Ounces: 4,887,966
Value US$
2,085,403,259.08

Eldorado,
Habe mich nicht durch die Prospekte gewühlt. Da hinter den genannten ETFs von Australien, Groß Britannien und den USA jeweils das World Gold Council steckt, vermute ich keine großen Besonderheiten, sondern nur Anpassungen an die jeweiligen gesetzl. Vorschriften. Vielleicht weiß jemand mehr.

Ulfur, dem **** Haudegen

Habe mal gelesen besser Muenzen zu halten als Barren.
Bei Barren kann es laengere Zeit dauern bis die ueberprueft sind ob sie echt sind und man muss auf sein Geld warten.
Und somit ist der WGC in allen ETF's, wie Du schreibst.
Das Gold wird in einen Safe der HSBC gelagert, dass in New York ist.
Shit,ich traue den Amis nicht,die fuehren gerade einen Krieg um Oil und dann ums Gold damit sie nicht tiefer in die Scheisse kommen, bzw. rauskommen. Na,ja lassen wir das mal im Raum stehen.
GATA mag den WGC nicht leiden und fuehlen sich nicht sicher.
Die behaupten dass sie ebenso den Gold Preis manipulieren und mit JPM und deren Kumpel im Bett liegen. Leerverkaeufe und Barren mit der selben nummer im lager,sagten sie mal. Ja,wem kann man da noch trauen ? Seinen eigenen Safe vielleicht
Ist vielleicht besser, dann kann man es auch anfassen als das papier zertifikat bzw. ETF

Ps. Komm uns mal im Juniors (Canada) thread besuchen, wir brauchen da auch deine Meinung.

Thanks, Ulfur

Insiderverkäufe geben ein Signal:

http://news.goldseek.com/Mille…veAdvisors/1107097200.php

Es gibt in den letzten Wochen (seit Dezember) deutliche Verkaufssignale von Insider bei S+P500, S+P400 und S+P600. Die Insiderverkäufe stiegen im Dezember dramatisch an! Gleichzeitig war die öffentliche Meinung optimistisch. Diese extremen Unterschiede sind ein Zeichen für die Erreichung eines Tops bei den Kursen. Ebenso sind die technischen Indikatoren auf oversold.

Dies ist ein weiterer Indikator, der auf einen bevorstehenden Rückgang bei den US-Kursen hinweist.

zur Erinnerung: In einer kürzlich von McHugh veröffentlichten Analyse wies er auf die sehr starken Parallelen zwischen S+P500 und den Kursen von 1929 hin. Nach McHugh sind wir schon in der letzten Phase, wo es jetzt noch mal zu einem Anstieg der Kurse kommt, bevor dann der Absturz beginnt. Nach McHugh fängt alles in der zweiten Februarhälfte an. Der Absturz wird spätestens im März erfolgen.

Good news for us ?
What happens when Dow and S+P falls ?
Do you think gold and silver shares fall as well when they go down?
By how much in relationship ?

Oh, so many questions

konservative (!) Goldprognose von Embry: 800-1000 $ je Unze

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/409192.htm

Analyse von Fetekes Plan zur Etablierung einer Goldmünze als Parallelwährung:

http://www.321gold.com/editori…tberg/hultberg020105.html

David Morgan sieht den Silberkurs schneller als man denkt explodieren;

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverInvestor/1107198608.php