Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Rakete4

Danke für Deine Definition

***

Hier hast Du meine Definition

Für mich ist eine Verschwörung, jede Art von geheimer Absprache, um Personen, Freiheit, Gedanken, Sachen (dazu zähle ich auch Aktien, Gold, Silber, ja selbst Schweine Bäuche, freien Handel etc.), zu schaden, oder zum Nachteil vieler, und zum Vorteil weniger zu manipulieren (Bewegen).

Und genau das trifft meiner Meinung nach beim Gold und Silber Handel zu. Ich sehe es auch nicht nur als eine Theorie an, sondern glaube belegen zu können, dass es eine Tatsache ist.

Falls Du von mir nicht nur Worte hören willst, sondern auch Fakten, Zeitzeugnisse, wie offizielle Veröffentlichungen, Presseartikel, und in Einzelfällen Beweise sehen willst, kannst Du mich gerne fordern.

Gruss

Thaiguru

Karl

Leider habe ich das Buch von Ferdinand Lips bis jetzt nur in kurzen Auszügenim Internet lesen können, und somit kann ich mir noch nicht erlauben The Gold Wars zu bewerten.

Vielleicht hast Du eine, oder mehrere konkrete Aussagen von F. Lips die Du nur für eine Theorie hälst.(Ich vermeide bewusst das diskriminierende Modewort Verschwörungstheorie) Bis ich selbst dazu komme ein Buch in Ruhe zu lesen wird`s vermutlich Sommer werden in Deutschland.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Teetrinker

Du schreibst:

Zitat

Ich habe mal ein bisschen bei Ted Butler reingeschaut. Der hat mehr als eine Schraube locker

Dieser Ted Butler hat mit sicherheit keine Schraube locker, ganz im Gegenteil. Ohne seinen unermüdlichen Einsatz für Silber, würdest Du, und wir alle vermutlich nicht in den Genuss des jetzt gerade stattfindenden Silberpreisanstieges kommen.

Mit welcher Berechtigung vergibst Du eigentlich solche Qualifikationen wie in Deinem Zitat? Wie lange hast Du Dich denn mit der Materie Silber Beschäftigt. Wieviele Leute hast Du Wachgerüttelt und auch nur irgendwas angeprangert, aufgeklärt, oder bekämpft. Ich vermute da ist nicht viel. Trotzdem würde ich nicht im Traum darauf kommen bei Dir eine lockere Schraube, oder einen Fall für die Klapsmühle zu vermuten.

Du gehst verdammt freizügig mit Worten um!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

March 11 - Gold $400.20 up 50 cents - Silver $7.14 up 1 cents

Chinese And Saudi Gold Buying Versus US Selling

Zitat

If you wish to succeed in life, make perseverance your bosom friend, experience your wise counselor, caution your elder brother, and hope your guardian genius... Joseph Addison

GO GATA!!!

A very choppy day. The story behind the scenes was most likely a battle between US sellers and Chinese/Saudi gold buyers.

There was a huge seller out there today which caught many gold traders going the wrong way most of the trading session. Early on gold traders were bagged as they bought a lower gold because the euro was on the move higher. However, a huge physical seller suddenly showed up. This supply eventual put gold down $3 on the day as the locals on the Comex panicked out of their positions and went short.

I say the US was the seller because we have seen gold act like this over and over. Just when it should be flying, gold goes the other way in the most unnatural of fashions. This morning stock markets were sharply lower all over the world, some group blew up the Madrid, Spain train station killing over 170 people, commodity prices were on the move higher and the euro was very firm. A perfect recipe for cheap gold to become more expensive.

Instead, gold was under pressure all day as a result of the enormous physical market seller. It was the same kind of selling pressure we saw during the LTCM crisis. Gold should have taken off then. However, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and the rest of the crooks sat on gold for weeks in the fall of 1998 until the crisis was under control. Eventually gold longs were so disgusted and disappointed, they began to dump their holdings.

I don’t believe this situation is comparable to that nightmare, but today’s gold price capping surely was an effort to prevent a gold price rise from revealing stresses in the financial system.

With gold down about $2.50 on the day I received a phone call from my STALKER source. Turns out, this buying group, which we believe is the Chinese, had been out of the market recently, but are now coming back in. Barely had the phone been put back on the hook, when gold took off to the upside, catching the locals on the wrong side once again.

My STALKER source also tells me the word in Europe is gold is likely to make a substantial move higher this summer due to rising commodity prices and a weakening dollar. Normally, the European bullion dealers gear down for slow gold trading in the summer. This year, they will be gearing up.

Gold continues to be the most undervalued commodity in the world, thanks to The Gold Cartel. Copper rebounded sharply today to close at $133.90, up $5.15. Soybeans soared 20 ½ cents to $9.44. Cotton gained 1.3 cents to 65.93 cents. Crude oil is aiming at $37 per barrel again, closing at $36.78. Silver made a new 7-year high. The CRB jumped 3.31 to 275.42.

Continually rising commodity prices, a dollar which is likely to come under severe pressure again soon, and world tensions are a recipe for gold to resume its advance in short order, especially with the Chinese and Saudis both looking for cheap gold.

The gold open interest leaped 6,254 contracts to 236,263 on yesterday’s setback. This is unusual. Not sure what to make of it except if we clear $406 in the next few days, it will turn out to be very bullish from a technical standpoint.

Over the last three weeks silver’s advance has been relentless. It has surged higher, composed itself for days, then has surged again. Every time silver is about to be clobbered Great Lakes, a floor firm which trades for large funds, shows up with buy orders. It happened again today. Today’s small up day represents a new high for the move.

There were only 10 deliveries with Deutsche Bank getting one of them.

Here is a pleasant surprise. The March silver open interest went up 47 contracts, bringing the new total up to 505. If this continues, it could be an ominous development for the silver shorts. This will bear monitoring. The total open interest rose 1760 contracts to 118,059 and is only a 1,000+ contracts of making a new high for this move.

Silver acts like it wants to explode, but has been held back by the constant gold selling pressure. I am expecting silver to head for $7.50 within the week. Still no near-term downside gaps to fill. About time we get our breakaway gap and run higher.

The John Brimelow Report

Consistent selling; Prognosis on SA

Thursday, March 11 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.12, PM $4.44, with world gold at $399.50 and $397.50. Slightly below legal import level. India does not seem in a gold-buying mood at present. With world silver at $7.05 at the Indian close, domestic silver edged below import point too.

TOCOM initially attempted to hold the gains of NY’s late rally back to $400. However, as Mitsui-London frankly reports:

Zitat

"Through the Asian day offshore selling came forward but TOCOM buying at the lows provided good support."

(Mitsui-HK describes the selling as "trade long liquidation".) Volume fell 27% to equal 31,753 Comex lots, with the active contract down 14 yen; world gold was 50c below the NY close at the end of trading. Open interest rose, by the equivalent of 1,228 Comex. (NY yesterday traded 54,885 lots.)

Yesterday, an effort by gold to rally on the Trade Data was promptly suppressed. ScotiaMocatta says:

Zitat

"…dealers began selling gold. Trade selling weighed on the price throughout the morning, forcing the metal to a low of 397.80 before physical buying provided support."

Standard London’s version is:

Zitat

"The trade deficit came out at a historic level and gold plumped to the days low of 397.90 offer as dealers gladly chased it lower. Good bidding at the lows easily lifted gold higher and it closed straddling the 400."

In general, then, there seems to be a ready seller just above $400 operating in all markets.

Those interested in the long term viability of deep mining in South Africa should read:

http://www.vdare.com/misc/rushton_african_iq.htm

especially the second half.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Word that Al Qaeda was responsible for the Madrid bombings sent a technically vulnerable stock market reeling late in the day. The DOW dropped 168 to 10,128 and the DOG sank 20 to 1944. For the first time in more than a year, the US stock market fell precipitously two days in a row. The Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) may have more than it can handle. This could also make it more difficult for them to keep gold under control.

The US stock market has been a disaster waiting to happen for a long time. Chuck has been all over this. Tomorrow should be quite the volatile day. You can be sure the PPT is making all sorts of phone calls this evening.

The dollar fell .53 to 88.49 and the euro rose 1.07 to 123.80.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The DOW finally responded to the Fed's wishes and fell exactly to its "appropriate" trend line, the one that puts it on 11,750 on Labor Day. Ofcourse the day-to-day action will somewhat mask this planned track. I keep emphasizing the value of appreciating that day-to-day action in the DOW calls into play more and more Fed response if that action is headed in the "wrong" direction. The repo pool pattern for this last phase is example number 1. Too high can be just as bad as too low.

By adding $17 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements the Fed caused the repo pool to rise a bit to $31.75 Billion and also to keep rounding off the pool's 30-day moving average bottoming pattern (its almost tracking level).

The latest Fed force application, lasting weeks was a long and persistent move that eventually took effect. Now, we must watch them closely as they attempt to regain better a management grip on the DOW. I would expect more volatility from the DOW during the current phase correction back to the trend line ( It tracks wobbly at 10,240 at this hour).

However, there can be no doubt as to the desired trend line for the DOW as it is made to fulfill its role in the Fed's grand inflationary theater that role is one of masterful diversion.

Even as the government has delayed the inflationary PPI report, juiced up the GDP with steroid-like hedonics and coached the Wall Street journals never to report the truth, the Fed's most important player (actually a cadaver) is dressed up to prance around drawing attention away from a dreadful reality.

The DOW functions like an anesthetic while the Fed's wrong-headed policy wrecking ball crushes wealth and Mr. Greenspan tries to put up more teetering defenses.

His latest circus stunt is to join the line of officials warning that the GSE contracts (Fannie and Freddie) aren't guaranteed by the government, as they prepare to report a $25 Billion derivatives loss (doubtless caused by the unexpected (and sluggishly dealt with) spike in interest rates last Summer.

Never mind that the whole idea behind the Fed's mid nineties gold rig was to create low interest rates and to thereby deliberately construct a massive credit and housing bubble.

Mike

Chuck checks in:

As thing unfolds, we want to see gold and the shares strengthen against everything especially an accelerated decline after the first bounce. This market has priced in a perfect world, and unfortunately we live in a fallen universe, man and nature.

Chuck………

You certainly have plenty to spin on tonight. I won't intrude. I only wish to point out and remind our readers that one of the purest correlations is between gold and the US dollar. But there is another strong one-between the stock market and gold. The last full bull market in gold occurred between 1971 and 1980. All during this time, the stock market experienced a terrible bear market and then six years of stagflation. This market present threatens to be far worse, a bear market without the stagflation. In essence an historic depression and collapse of stocks, housing and eventually bonds. If gold could go up 20 times under the past conditions, the possibilities for this one could be far greater.

Chuck

From The King Report last evening:

Zitat

One must ask themselves what event could force stocks higher. The Fed is useless, they can only hurt. There will be no fiscal policy initiatives. Bush’s tax rebates and accelerated depreciation are almost spent. There has been relative peace in Iraq and GI casualties have been extremely low. Bin Laden’s capture would generate about a 45-minute rally. The cupboard appears to be bare.

–END-

Some tips for Café members:

Hi Bill,

I had been looking for a way to trade the HUI index for some time as most of the shares I had been interested in comprised the bulk of the index. I found that there is a nascent market in HUI options, with the back month as far back as September, 2004. The liquidity is not there yet. However, there does appear to be increasing evidence of market making activity, at least in terms of reasonable bid-ask spreads. Plus volume is beginning to grow. Of course, options aren't for everyone, or even most investors, but I thought the GATA community might benefit from the awareness of this relatively new trading avenue, which has not really been publicized all that well.

Regards,

Tim Tesluk
Hong Kong

Bill,

You have been on about what happens when derivative contracts go wrong for a long time. The attached link is a good (now old) case study of same in the oil industry.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/0194mrs.pdf

Interesting site they seem to have it straight about future reserves.

Regards

Keith Whitehouse

From http://www.urbansurvival.com (George Ure):

Oil Driven Decline

Although the market has had a few bumps in here that we don't care about, having exited the market long ago following our personal belief that the markets are controlled to some degree by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) and are therefore like placing bets in a rigged casino, we nevertheless find days like today interesting. The price of gasoline at the pump is a major driver, and when coupled with things like the explosions in Madrid overnight (which killed nearly 200), don't leave even the staunchest of bulls much to sink their teeth into. http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040311/markets_stocks_2.html. The markets globally are reacting in a predictable hype, shuck, and dive manner... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3500386.stm

Not to sound like a broken record here, but if you haven't yet followed our advise (given first to subscribers) to read every paper put out by Simmons & Company International, investment bankers to the energy world, then you are living under a rock as one of the sheep. On the other hand, if you really want to see from the knowledgeable investment banker's perspective just what the world is really racing on the energy front, click over to Matthew R. Simmons' more recent presentations on energy at http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches.

One you get there, I want you to do three things:

First read his Global Overview of the Oil and Gas Industry. It's a PowerPoint presentation wrapped up in a .PDF file. It's only 28 slide in length, which you can digest in 10-15 minutes. Right off the bat, on slide 4, you read things like this: "„ Despite this "energy calm", global demand reached an all time peak. – In 2003, oil demand crossed 80 million b/d. – Natural gas demand exceeded 45 million boe/d. „ Oil and gas is a $1.5 to $2.0 trillion business. „ If supply ever becomes even 1% less than demand, a crisis is triggered. „ If energy supply ever stops, the 2004 economy ends. „ Oil and gas are still the world’s most precious resource." And it gets better.

The second presentation I want you to read is even more important, but you need to read the Global Overview first. The second read is his "Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle presentation. The one term that might be unfamiliar to you is his reference to "FSU" which stands for former Soviet Union as a supply of oil. At 60 slides in length, this might require a second cup of coffee, but when you're done, you will get an oilman's understanding of three critical concepts that will put you head and shoulders above anyone you know in knowledge of what's coming. First, you will understand the concept of what Kings, Queens, Lords, and peasants are in oil lingo. Secondly, you will get an appreciation of by-passed oil and water driven recovery, which, as Simmons points out: "Once oil is by-passed, it is "left behind."
The last - but most important thing you can do, is sign up to be on Simmons' free email list to receive notification each time he puts another speech or presentation on line.

If you'll do just these three things, you will have a major head start on 99.99% of the rest of the world. If you're planning to be an urban survivor, you'll recognize the value of such a lead. You'll also gain an appreciation of why the folks behind http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and I think Matt Simmons ought to be given sainthood while still alive as the most readable source of straight information on the global oil situation available.

-END-

From my brother, a superb market technician:

Hey Bill, From a technical standpoint, gold is finally indicating it has bottomed out. A close above 410 would be very significant. Despite silver's recent rise, it still has plenty of room to move to the upside. 7.50 is a strong resistance level and after that it is clear sailing. The dollar is struggling and a close below 88.00 should resume the downtrend.

Many thanks to all of the cafe members that purchased the 100 oz silver bars with Swiss America. Besides helping the 'cause', they are already making money as well! Keep up the great job. Brother Tim

Tim Murphy
Swiss America Trading Corp
800-289-2646 x1019
trmurphy@swissamerica.com

The gold shares were sluggish all day. Then when the US stock market began to tank badly late in the day, the gold shares sold off. However, they quickly reversed to close higher. This many alleviate the fears of those who think a general stock market debacle will bury the gold shares too. The XAU gained 1.14 to 98.88 and the HUI put in a 2.51 gain to 222.98. The HUI rounded bottom pattern continues to expand. The upside technical point and figure counts must project sharply higher gold share prices once this pattern is completed.

To repeat.

With all that is really going on in the world, it is only a matter of time before gold and silver prices SOAR, regardless of the antics of The Gold Cartel. These bums have clearly lost control of silver and will also lose control of gold with such large buyers lurking out there.

There is no telling how high gold and silver prices could go this year. Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

Rakete4

Dimiti Specks Beitrag ist absolut lesenswert, und erklärt verständlich die wichtigsten Aspekte zum Gold Geschehen, und warum davon auszugehen ist, dass der Goldmarkt nicht im Interesse von vielen, sondern eher mehr zu Gunsten der Gold Bullion Banken, und Zentralbanken abläuft.

Deinen Vorschlag werde ich gerne mal aufgreifen.

Gebe Dir völlich Recht, dass eine Markt Manipulation beim Gold nicht unbegrenzt stattfinden kann, und früher, oder später scheitern muss.

Mein Ziel ist es nun mal, das "Früher" etwas zu beschleunigen.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://a.blick.ch/PB2G/PICS/HBMHF8RbW.p.gif]

http://www.blick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=67404

Der CRB Rohstoff index

Schöner und beständiger kann ein Chart fast nicht mehr aussehen!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.taprofessional.de/charts/000652LT.GIF]

Diese Erfolgsstory seit August 2003, ist leider ohne mich abgelaufen.

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