Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

So schnell kann´s gehen. Heute morgen sagen Experten vorher, daß Gold unwahrscheinlich die 420-428$ Bandbreite durchstößt und wenige Stunden später ist Gold bei 433$.

MARKET TALK: Gold Unlikely To Break $420-$428 For Now
Feb 22, 2005 - 08:26:44 HKT
Dow Jones Newswires

Spot gold last $427.45/oz, still trapped by narrow range set by EUR/USD, after thin trading on absence of U.S., Monday. $428-$432 resistance looks too strong for now ; more likely to consolidate further in current $420-$428 range, says Bullion Desk's James Moore. Still taking most cues from EUR/USD, with currency/metal traders' eyes on release of FOMC minutes Thursday morning.(JAD) (Delayed by 1 hour)-0-

Ich befürchte, Bill Murphy wird heute wieder einen Anfall kriegen.

Gold bislang nur um 7,30 Dollar hoch.

Warten auf die Goldkabale

...diese "Experten" haben alle nicht die leiseste Ahnung, was passiert, wenn die Gold-Kabale und die "lass den Markt nicht um mehr als 6 $ pro Tag steigen" - Strategie einmal mangels Manipulationsmasse nicht mehr funktioniert. Wir werden das alle in den nächsten max. 3 Jahren in der ersten Reihe beobachten können.

Chefexperte Wresniok-Rosbach kommt auch schon seit Tagen nicht mehr mit der Revision seiner Kursprognosen hinterher. Diese "offiziösen" Erklärungsversuche und technischen Wetterprognosen sind gleichermaßen unfundiert, gesteuert, unseriös, inhaltsleer, peinlich und/oder einfach nur überflüssig. Auch die Leser- und Anleger-Masse wird es irgendwann merken - zuerst wahrscheinlich über die Explosion des Silbermarktes.

Lee vergleicht den Uranium-Kurs mit dem Silberkurs und stellt einen Parallelverlauf der Kurse im Abstand von 12-18 Monate fest:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/lee022105.html

Der Uranium-Kurs ist seinerzeit auf 20 $ explodiert !

February 22 – Gold $434.20 up $7.20 – Silver $7.49 up 10 cents

It Doesn’t Get Any Better, Yet $6 Rule Still Reigns / CRB Explodes

To change your life;

-Start immediately
-Do it flamboyantly
-No exceptions...William James

GO GATA!!!

GO GOLD RUSH 21!!!

If someone were to ask me to draw up a scenario in which gold should rise $10 to $20 during the Comex trading hours, it would be a day which looks like this one. It doesn’t get any better:

*For starters the dollar was clobbered on this news:

"The central bank, which has $200 billion in reserves, will "diversify the currencies in which it invests," Reuters said yesterday, citing a Bank of Korea spokesman in a parliamentary report. Byun Jai Yung, head of the bank's planning department, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview that he can't comment.

"People are taking the Bank of Korea story a bit more seriously and there's some talk other central banks are backing away as well," said David Mozina, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney. The dollar's decline triggered some automatic orders to sell the currency, he said." – Reuters

This one significant development changed the tone of the dollar market, as well as its technical picture. By the close it fell to 82.41, down 1.11. The euro sailed 1.91 higher to 132.62. After trading at 105.66 early on, the yen rose to 104.04, a substantial move.

*If that wasn’t dramatic enough, the CRB went bananas, blowing through 23-year highs:

April CRB

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/X

The spot CRB closed at 297.49, up a whopping 6.83, and was led by:

Mach crude oil - up a dramatic $2.80 to $51.15 per barrel, and

March wheat
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CW/35

and

March soybeans, up 24 ½ cents
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SB/35

Only two weeks ago, I suggested the odds of the grains/oilseed complex coming to life had a fairly high probability and, in that case, the CRB would have a 300 handle on it in short order. Should get it some time this week. That ought to set off a bunch of bells and whistles inflation commentary, especially after last week’s stunning PPI number. Now if tomorrow’s CPI number is a doozie!

*Then, you have a weak stock market. The DOW fell 173 to 10,611; the DOG dropped 28 to 2030; and the S&P gave up 17 to 1184. This is most significant DOW down day in some time and the largest S&P drop in 7 months.

*On top of all of that, gold blows right through powerful resistance, leaving a substantial base to support a MUCH higher price move.

Putting all of that together, you have a recipe for gold to go up $10 to $20. That is if it were a free market. But, we don’t have one. It is rigged/managed by anti-trust operatives sanctioned by our government. We have a bunch of Orwellians running the US financial markets. As I have been ranting for weeks, these bums are going to take America down and are in the process of doing so. They, with our Fed, have facilitated one financial/economic bubble after another which will bust. When they do, as mentioned yesterday, the average American won’t know what hit them. The collapse of the Nasdaq a few years ago was only jacks for openers.

So with all of this, actively traded April gold was only allowed to rise $6.90 and pretty much flat-lined after its early surge. Spot traded $434 at 9 AM EST; from there on it gained another 20 cents over the next 4 1/2 hours with the dollar sinking badly and oil going nuts to the upside. All efforts by bullion to put in a really exciting day like other commodity markets were CRUSHED by the pathetic Gold Cartel. Silver was held in check too and sold off after its early sharp move up. The silver price managing did not go unnoticed for a change:

1815 GMT [Dow Jones] Comex March silver is below $7.50 an ounce on bullion bank selling designed to curb the metal's appeal to technical or chart-following funds, dealers said. A close above the psychologically significant $7.50 level would likely attract more chart-based buying overnight, they say, while a close below there will likely limit the metal's near term appeal. (GJM)

GATA could’ve written the DOW JONES silver comment today. It’s getting so obvious even Dow Jones can’t ignore the truth any more.

The $6 Rule is alive and well. DJ ought to write about that too. When will this obvious price management ever end? Answer: Only when the crooks are defeated and lose control of their scam. We are not there yet.

By the way, for Café newcomers, the $6 Rule is the general level where The Gold Cartel instructs its members to cap the gold price. On a day like today when gold has EVERYTHING going for it, that level can extend up to $7.40, which is the upper band for the rule.

While totally disgusted with today’s price capping, the big picture looks fantastic. The bad guys are in deep trouble and are running out of options on how to contain the price of gold. Their plea for the IMF to sell gold is a thinly veiled disguised call for help. The nonsense about helping the poor is nothing more than that, nonsense. The Gold Cartel is scraping the bottom of their barrel.

After a cool spell in December and January, the kid has been on a roll as far as the MIDAS commentary is concerned. Never thought gold would correct as much as it did in January. The markets are finally coming around the way they should, at least from my perspective. The most exciting development is the surge in commodity prices which made 23-year highs with the aide of a sagging dollar.

As mentioned of late by MIDAS, the perfect storm is brewing out there which is likely to wreak havoc with the financial markets. Rising commodity prices and a falling dollar is very inflationary and can’t help but put a crimp in corporate profits. If interest rates rise sharply, forget about it. Short rates have been rising. Long rates took off last week. Should both continue to move and do so with vigor, the US stock and real estate markets will be in deep trouble. March bonds closed down ¼ to 113 22/32 to extend their losing streak.

Our STALKER source called today with input from this London bullion dealer. Like most everyone all of a sudden, they are gold friendly and dollar bearish, looking for $450 gold, sub 80 on the dollar, and $9 to $10 on silver. Word also is the baby STALKERS have been buying gold fairly aggressively the last two days. This means the Chinese are on a gold scamper.

The gold open interest fell 32 contracts to 263,509, while the silver open interest rose 1907 contracts to 98,205.

Thanks to The Gold Cartel, there was powerful gold resistance, first at $427, then more so at $430. In one surging day, gold blew right through both of them after we got the gap opening and then run day I have been looking for. From a technical standpoint gold now has formidable support at $430. Any dips from today's close will be bought for the time being.
When gold took out $330 the price ran, when gold took out $430 last fall, the price ran; no reason for it not to do so once again.

Items:

*Tomorrow is option expiry for March copper and silver.
*The euro gold price ended the day at 328.59, up 0.67, a new high, yet way way off what it should be.
*A change of pace … gold is up $1.30 in the Access Market as I go to print. Wonder how long that will last? (!!! It is now 6:08 CST and gold is down 20 cents - right on cue - the up move after the close lasted only until Australia opened)

The John Brimelow Report

Happy New Year, at last?

Monday, February 22 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.86, PM $ 6.08, with world gold at $427.55 and $430.65. Ample, and adequate for legal imports. Yesterday Bombay was closed: premiums from Ahmedabad, sometimes said to be Bombay’s major competitor, were adequate for legal imports.

This was despite reportedly significant rupee-suppressing intervention by the Reserve Bank. Today the dollar slump permitted the India authorities to tolerate a small rally, while effectively obtaining a further devaluation against most other currencies. They have a serious problem: foreign portfolio investments inflows this month already stand 500% above January at $1.4 Billion (2004’s total was only $8.5 Billion).

A Reuters story with the egregiously misleading headline

"Higher prices may curb strong Mideast gold demand" sheds valuable light on the failure of the sellers to break gold down this year. Emanating from the Dubai Gold Conference, it reads:

"DUBAI, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Middle East gold demand has been strong in the first seven weeks of 2005…Philip Olden, managing director for marketing and jewellery at the World Gold Council (WGC), said the month-long Dubai Shopping Festival, which ended in mid-February, had witnessed "huge sales increases" for Dubai's jewellery traders."

"B.P. Sharma, managing director of Jumooh Jewellers, a Dubai-based gold jewellery manufacturer and distributor, said retail demand had surged this year after gold prices came off the 16-1/2-year peak of $456.75 per troy ounce hit last December. "There is so much demand, I cannot make enough (jewellery). Three months ago it was nothing, but when the price went down to around $420 business increased four times," he said"

"Paul Walker, chief executive of London-based precious metals consultancy GFMS Ltd, said dealers in the Middle East and Indian physical gold market "can't get enough gold". Walker said premiums above the London-quoted price for a one kilogram bar, the typical unit in Asia, averaged between 15-30 cents per ounce in the past three years. In some Middle East markets last week, he said, the premium per ounce was about $1.20, reflecting strong demand." (JB emphasis)

These almost unprecedented remarks suggest the Bears who went into action starting in Christmas week have seriously over-reached themselves.

Japan remains indifferent. TOCOM ended a 9-day gaining streak today, with the active contract slipping 7 yen. World gold was actually up $2 from the London close, but open interest was static (at 103,948 Comex equivalent), as it was the day before. Volume was equal to 16,115 Comex lots. (NY on Friday traded 31,926 contracts, pretty heavy for the short session. Open interest slipped 32 lots to 263,509.

Two ECB captive Central Banks sold E 93 Mm of gold last week, about 8.9 tonnes, somewhat more than the recent average.

After a boring couple of days, gold exploded into life this morning in the aftermath of stories from Korea and Bahrein - cheered on by George Soros - suggesting that Central Bank diversification away from the dollar is actually underway. Highly significantly, it also gained against the Euro (the Euro gold chart is worth a glance). On this basis it is almost back to the January high.

The dollar’s slump electrified The Gartman Letter, which has abandoned all optimism about the currency:

"Sell stops in the dollar are being hit everywhere and against all of its major and minor currencies, and we fear this is the start of what might well be a rout on the downside…the market's psychology … we fear shall become worse, rather than better, over

the course of the next several weeks." Gartman has reacted:

"…we have no choice but to begin this discussion with the very strong recommendation that gold positions be added to upon receipt of this commentary, or if they cannot be added to by our clients immediately, that as soon as the markets they are able to deal in are open for business they add to their positions then. We trust we are clear on this issue."

The danger of the Bear’s position was highlighted by the UBS assessment on the CFTC data yesterday:

"Contrary to our expectations, the COTR for gold showed that the recent recovery in gold was not driven by short covering but by a modest increase in new longs…gross short positions increased to 8.48Moz, up 90k while 1.6Moz of new longs lifted the gross long position to 16.77Moz, leaving the net long position up 1.52 million ounces at a still-modest 8.3Moz. Since Last Tuesday, open interest has increased modestly and we believe that net long position is probably between 9 and 9.5Moz." (JB emphasis)

Apparently an astute trader, Gartman successfully bought the late Fall breakout, sold basically at the top in December – and although sorely tempted, did not go short. One suspects that his intimate relationship with certain Hedge Funds helps. ACCESS volume last night was a very heavy 8,302 lots.

A similar message come from a different perspective from Bridgewater Associates this morning:

"Risk Premiums at 40 year lows"

"…the decline in risk spreads appear to have taken on a life of their own.

The unprecedented push of money into "arbitrage" style hedge funds is likely a contributing factor. Roughly $70 billion has flowed into these hedge fund strategies in the last 12 months…It appears the Long Term Capital Management experience has faded out of the market’s memory…We are certainly nervous about all the calm that is expected…Risk spreads, in aggregate, are at their tightest in forty years."

The obvious reason why gold should rise so much on a fairly modest rise in overall spec exposure, of course, is OTC buying of physical from the consuming countries.

Perhaps now gold’s friends can begin to enjoy 2005.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market could be in big trouble and should be. Iraq is still a mess and the Bush Administration has done nothing to correct US fiscal problems. It goes on from there.

Fannie Mae continues to dive-bomb, falling another $1.10 to $57.80.

Enrico Orlandini of the Lasco Report:

The Transport Index in now down +/- 69.00 and close to the February low of 3,542.00. If we can work our way down through this in the next couple of days, we should set up nicely for a test of the December lows in the DJIA as well as in the Transport Index.

Right now we have an unusual situation: the DJIA, the US$, and the bond all down. The first two are down hard. Remember a long time ago I told you that when the crash comes, it will come across the board, i.e., in bonds, stocks, and the dollar all at the same time. No prisoners will be taken. Today is a coming attraction.

Buy gold!
EBO

More on the dollar:

Dollar Declines on Report Korea to Diversify Currency Reserves

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell by a cent against the euro and dropped versus the yen on a report that South Korea's central bank will diversify its currency reserves.

The central bank, which has $200 billion in reserves, will ``diversify the currencies in which it invests,'' Reuters said yesterday, citing a Bank of Korea spokesman in a parliamentary report. Byun Jai Yung, head of the bank's planning department, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview that he can't comment.

``Support for the dollar is quickly disappearing,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who manages $1 billion in overseas debt at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo. ``This Korean story is having quite an impact because it feeds into suspicion that others are also seeking to cut their exposure to the dollar.'' ..

-END-

But, there is no inflation:

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's largest iron ore producer, raised prices by a record 71.2 percent for Japan's two biggest steelmakers as surging demand from Chinese steel mills caused shortages of raw materials.

The annual agreements with Tokyo-based Nippon Steel Corp. and JFE Steel Corp. were the first between steelmakers and suppliers this year and came as Rio de Janeiro-based Vale and BHP Billiton Plc, which ship three-fourths of the world's iron ore, negotiate with European steelmakers. Shares of steelmakers, including Luxembourg-based Arcelor SA and Germany's ThyssenKrupp AG, fell, while Vale had its biggest gain in four months.

THE BIG STORY of the day is surging inflation … and this was written last night before today’s commodity price explosion:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Tuesday Feb. 22, 2005 – Issue 3102 "Independent View of the News"

The PPI at 0.3% was in-line, but the core surged 0.8%, four times the expected 0.2%. Core PPI at 2.7% y/y is the highest since 11/95. Gee and to think that Easy Al just stated,

"Inflation pressures have recently abated." Core price increases occurred across the board, and prodded analysts to surmise that last year’s surging commodity, energy and raw material prices are no longer bottled up in the pipeline, but are being manifest in final prices. Companies still dread adding capacity, so they’re raising prices.

Friday’s unexpectedly ugly PPI also demonstrates the foolishness of Easy Al’s "measured" response to inflation. The "measured" increases in fed funds, which still render real rates negative, will not inhibit inflation. This pressures Easy Al because he is, and has been for years, positive rear rates or contracting reserves because it would likely induce the dreaded debt deflation.

Easy Al testified that he cannot determine the ‘neutral rate’ for fed funds. Yet no one has rebuked him for this stunning confession. To know if the Fed’s policy is expansionary or contracting is his main job; the other is to bailout the system when needed. People spend years in school and in professions trying to ascertain real rates of interest. Easy Al’s inability to determine the real rate of interest is like an umpire saying he cannot determine the strike zone. It’s the essential requirement of the job. Yet The Street is mum. After decades of glorifying the self-confessed doofus, The Street must now ignore Easy Al’s obvious faults because they have invested so much of their own self-esteem and integrity in praising him.

Midwest Research notes: "DE now expects raw material inflation at $500mm or a $1.30/share headwind for F05E - this is v. prior outlook of $300mm…KMT raised prices by 5-10% on 1/1/05 across many of its Advanced Materials product lines…SHW raised prices 5-7% in February, the 3rd increase in the past 12 months, while Duron raised prices around 5%; PPG stores, Kelly Moore, Dunn Edwards have all pushed through similar price increases in the past few weeks…Sub prime home equity lender American Business Financial Services (ABFIQ) filed for bankruptcy in January following a liquidity crisis which began over a year ago when they could not place high yield debt which likely was to be used to inject add’l capital into the primary subsidiary."

The big rally in oil and gasoline is not reflected in the January PPI. BLS actually has energy prices down 1.3% for January, with crude energy prices down 4.5%! Absurd! The below charts show crude oil rallied from the low to high $40 handle; gasoline and heating oil surged while natural gas traded sideways.

This means the big increases in energy and industrial commodities – the Goldman Sachs Industrial Metals Index made a new high last week – should be reflected in the February PPI. The operative word is "should". ‘Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of the BLS?’

We are including the BLS tables on adjusted and UNADJUSTED stages of production to demonstrate just how big adjustments are. The UNADJUSTED prices of "Intermediate Goods" increased 8.7% in January. Unadjusted ‘fuels & products’ prices increased 11.4% in January!

One more thing – The BLS PPI reports states, "Effective with this release, the Producer Price Index (PPI) includes data for 58 resampled and 3 newly introduced industries classified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)." http://bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

-END-

On President Bush’s trip to Europe from a Swiss Café member:

hi bill-
don't know how much you are hearing about gwb's "fence-mending" trip to
europe. but, i would say, after watching the eoropean news last night, he isn't doing to well. some of the news shows out of DE and CH showed gwb making his speech and then juxtaposed rummy's, now notorious, remarks about the old and new europe along with shots of the protestors. you probably didn't hear king george, in his news conference with Pres. Chirac, tell the news media that "i can use a another cowboy on my ranch" meaning Mr. Chirac. this was not funny. Mr. Chirac didn't think it was funny. only gwb. or "europe must stand together w/ the u.s. and confront the danger of russia, iran and syria." he must be loony. he doesn't have a clue about european politics, let alone about tact. someone should keep this guy at home. maybe teach him about mending fences on his ranch. he is a laughing stock.
Rwh

It is Swiss input day – another one:

Bill
I am looking forward to your blockbuster Midas tomorrow, with the long awaited alert for the stretcher bearers.

My observation on the currency front is that the Swiss Franc is leading the pack in the flight to safety, now up 2 % at the time of writing, (after copying below at 1.5%) as is gold, and the CHF even moving slightly against the Euro, which is an unusual sign of currency market stress.
This is a signal , reminding us of the 70's when a similar currency panic set in, and eventually the Swiss were forced to introduce temporary measures of negative interest rates for foreign deposits for a few weeks.
Not that I am saying this will happen again, just that I observe the currency markets are under an extraordinary stress this evening.
Maybe this is another sign that Gold is about to break free of the us$ 6 / day maximum rule you have so often commented on and which was also breached today for the first time in how many years?
All JMHO
Best
Alan

Alan, as mentioned above, the $6 Rule was never more enforced than today. Gold has often closed $6.90 higher or $7.20 up. The price should have doubled those levels today without the same boorish drill by the crooks.

On the South African gold shares and the rand:

Bill,
The South African Rand is up 2.86% today as I write — by far the biggest gain of any currency that Kitco follows. I notice because the strong rand affects the performance of Gold Fields, Harmony and Randgold, which make up 1/5 of the HUI and are weighing the index down these days. I also recently read about a new "use it or lose it" regulation in the country that pressures mining companies to develop or lose their properties. Between currency and regulatory pressures, is it conceivable that the government and central bank down there are trying to force a change of ownership of South Africa's natural resources?
Just a thought but, if true, that would certainly be something for investors to consider.
Best wishes,
Peter R.