Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Mittwoch:

    Zitat

    Today and tomorrow is positive day for metals and if they don't move up than big question mark for future outlook of metals. One can buy small quantity of metal stocks and metals here but keep stop loss because it looks like that overall negativity from Mercury is not favouring.


    Mittwoch und Donnerstag waren jedoch negative Tage!


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    April 29 – Gold $434.30 up $3.90 – Silver $6.87 down 1 cent


    The Easy To Spot US Financial Market Manipulation Is Astounding



    "When you possess great treasures within you and try to tell others of them, seldom are you believed"
    from the alchemist, Pavlo Coelho


    It was a wild day all around. Gold firmed up nicely overnight with the AM Fix coming in at $433.20, up $2.70 from the Comex close. As per the usual, gold was taken down into the Comex opening and right after. However, that is when the scene changed. With gold up about a buck The Gold Cartel and other bullion dealers showed up as massive buyers. Gold exploded when the predictable $6 Rule was invoked by the cabal. The high for the day had gold up $5.80.


    Whether The Gold Cartel was buying for themselves or clients is a mystery. We don’t know, just that they were ALL buying early, then stopped. Somebody big wanted a lot of gold and those orders had to be filled. Once done, the cabal could get back to business, which is just what they did.


    Once again we saw gold make its gains in the very early going and then stopped cold for the rest of the trading session. If you knew nothing else re what GATA has presented over the years, just this and the $6 Rule would be enough to prove this market has been tightly managed. No other market has traded this way throughout history – a strong statement to make, yet a valid one.


    The PM Fix was $435.70 due to strong physical market demand. Once the Fix was over, the cabal dug in with one sell order after another.


    It was a wild night for rumors and market talk slinging going into the Comex opening. The Microsoft news after the bell last night was designated a miss and the President of the US told the American public in a rare televised press conference there wasn’t anything he could do about gasoline prices in the short-term. His delivery was strong I thought, but nothing which would send our stock market higher.


    Then, when in need, the PPT found its old standby rumor, a potential bin Laden capture, to aid its stock market rescue:


    05:10 Globex futures rally overnight
    Sharp spike in the S&P globex futures between 2:30-4:30 ET attributed, at least in part, to speculation that bin Laden had been captured/killed, spurred by a posting on an Islamist web site. Reuters reports the speculation of the death was misleading. The posting on the site said there was news bin Laden had died, but elaborated that bin Laden could die at any time and Muslims should be prepared. Reuters says the author was likely trying to attract interest to the posting.
    Reference Link
    * * * * *


    There was also talk of a slight Chinese currency revaluation in the near future, which sent the yen soaring. JPM Morgan said it was a done deal and would be announced next week. The dollar fell across the board early with the yen leading the foreign currency charge.


    JPMorgan's X( Gong Predicts China Yuan Shift Next Week


    April 29 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s chief China economist Frank Gong expects China will loosen its decade-old peg to the dollar at the end of next week's national holidays. Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS AG disagree.


    Gong made the prediction after China's central bank let the yuan briefly strengthen to 8.2700 per dollar, the most since the exchange rate was fixed in 1995. China currently limits movement in the yuan to 0.3 percent either side of 8.2770.


    ``The central bank is testing the water before the holiday, when we expect China to move,'' Gong, a former economist at the Federal Reserve, said in an interview in Hong Kong today. A spokesman for the central bank said today there is no change in the country's currency policy for now.


    -END-

    Good money will be in gold because:


    1/ Gold is finally accepted as a currency by the establishment because of its relationship with the US dollar.
    2/ The French-euro situation reveals the euro’s true character as a basket of junk.
    3/ The US dollar suffers from systemic problems that will not be addressed in terms of new policy initiatives.
    4/ None of the triple deficits in the US will find anything but momentary statistical blips towards surplus as they dive deeper and deeper into red ink.
    5/ Gold has a limited supply.
    6/ The limited supply of gold can only result in gold’s price rising.
    7/ Gold has no nationality therefore it needs no constitution.
    8/ Gold has no agenda of spreading either democracy or terrorism.
    9/ Gold is universally accepted as a medium of exchange.
    10/ Because gold has maintained its buying power over the entire history of mankind, it is a storehouse of value and a measure of value.
    11/ With gold being accepted as real money, its function as the most desirable money in terms of medium of exchange, measure of value and storehouse of value, will point the establishment at gold as the best currency earlier than it did in the 12 year bull market for gold from 1968 to 1980. Gold will have met the acid test of what money is defined as.

    On the 2-year chart we can see this strong support at the lows of Spring and Summer last year. We see again the increasingly oversold condition shown by the RSI and MACD indicators, and by the position of the index relative to its moving averages. Of course, given the current weakness and propensity of the PM stocks to move with the broad market (which is not an automatic or permanent state of affairs), this oversold condition can get considerably worse, which is why, although there is a good chance that we are now at or close to the lows, the index may yet decline to the 150 area. In the event that this happens, we would would then be at a major buy spot, provided that the metals do not break down from their long-term up trends in the meantime.


    Conclusion: it is unwise to get panicked out at this stage in the game. Traders who have "kept some powder dry" should soon be able to move in and pick up bargains, especially if the index does drop back to the 150 area.


    In the obviously unlikely event that this interpretation proves to be incorrect, readers are advised to avail themselves of the words of a song by Bobby McFerrin, entitled "Don't Worry - Be Happy."


    29 April, 2005
    Clive Maund


    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund042905.html

    Hallo eldo,
    also ich muss sagen, der Hamilton gefällt mir immer besser, je mehr Artikel ich von ihm lese.
    Gerbino mag ich auch.
    Der Anstieg von Gold in € hat ja schon begonnen.


    Grüße
    Tschonko

    Tschonko


    Ja,einige analysten sind gut zum lesen und die richtung stimmt.
    Momentan ist noch vieles unklar aber ende naechster woche sollte sich doch eine neue richtung zeigen. Ich habe wieder festgestellt,obwohl es sich vielleicht laecherlich anhoert,dass bei Vollmond es meistens runter geht, speziell drei Tage hinterher.

    Ich wuensche allen ein schoenes Wochenende.


    Gruss


    Eldorado

    COMEX gold settles higher on bargain hunting


    Fri Apr 29, 2005 02:35 PM ET


    NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures rebounded sharply to settle higher Friday on speculative buying after a previous slide in the metals complex uncovered keen physical interest in gold at lower prices, dealers said.
    June delivery gold (GCM5: Quote, Profile, Research) on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division rose $3.70 to $437.40 an ounce, after trading between $431.90 and $438 and erasing Thursday's decline to the lowest level since mid-month.


    "There is heavy short covering by the hedge funds. And yesterday, lower prices brought a lot of fresh physical buying into the market," said Ian MacDonald, managing director of precious metals at International Assets Holding Corp.


    But despite the bargain-hunting bounce before the weekend and upcoming holidays overseas next week, gold still was wedged in a tight trading range.


    Additionally, some dealers warned it was possible central bank selling could resume with gold prices back in the $440s.


    Major resistance looms up near $440, potentially blocking a move toward the next target at $448, said MacDonald. He pegged chart support at $428-$430.


    Estimated COMEX gold turnover hit 55,000 contracts, above Thursday's final tally at 43,100 lots. Open interest fell 296 to 298,136 contracts.


    Spot gold last changed hands at $434.30/5.00 an ounce, versus Thursday's close in New York at $430.65/1.40. Friday's afternoon fix in London was at $435.70.


    London's commodity markets will be closed on Monday for the May Day holiday. China will also shut that day for a labor day holiday, and Japan will close all next week for Golden Week.


    In a report sponsored by Mitsui Precious Metals, major gold miners looked to have put the brakes on hedging activities in the first quarter of 2005, compared with the previous two quarters.


    During the past four years, major gold miners have massively reduced their hedge books, which commit them to sell at a fixed price that may be lower than the market -- as bullion prices rose to their highest in more than 16 years close to $460.


    The report said hedging by the four largest hedgers -- Anglogold Ashanti (ANGJ.J: Quote, Profile, Research) , Barrick (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , Newcrest (NCM.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) and Placer Dome (PDG.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) -- was just 500,000 ounces, compared with levels of around 2 million ounces in recent quarters.


    Meanwhile, the dollar's fall Friday and concerns about inflation amid high energy prices and after soft U.S. first quarter economic growth supported gold in its role as an alternative investment, traders said.


    The dollar fell as speculation mounted that China was ready to revalue its pegged currency soon, which could set off a rally in Asian currencies. But the euro turned lower in the afternoon, sliding to $1.2869 from above $1.29 earlier.


    U.S. consumers turned a bit more glum about the future in April as they struggled with record gasoline prices and sluggish wage growth, reports showed on Friday.


    Separate reports showed Midwestern manufacturing ticking along at a faster-than-expected rate this month, and consumer spending -- and inflation -- higher in March.


    Economists said the data did little to change the outlook for interest rates. Federal Reserve officials gather Tuesday and are widely seen raising benchmark overnight rates by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent.


    In silver, further speculative liquidation sent prices to a fresh one-month low after the market dropped steeply on Thursday in busy May-into-July contract rollover.


    July silver (SIN5: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 0.8 cent to $6.94 an ounce -- its lowest close for active futures since late March, after moving between $6.90 and $7.06.


    Spot silver eased to $6.87/90 from the last New York close near $6.88/91. Friday's fix in London was at $6.98.


    On the NYMEX, July platinum (PLN5: Quote, Profile, Research) rose $3.60 to finish at $868.60 an ounce. Spot platinum touched $868/873.


    June palladium (PAM5: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed $1.90 to $197.90 an ounce, after settling Thursday at a one-month low of $196. Spot palladium priced at $195/199.

    If you own gold stocks and follow the gold market at all, then you are aware that the stocks declined by almost twenty percent since the middle of March, while the gold price itself has remained relatively unchanged. Why?


    One possibility is that investors anticipate a decline in the gold price. Gold stocks don't always correctly indicate coming changes in the gold price, but they are right more often than they are wrong.


    Another possibility is that gold stocks have simply declined along with all the other stocks: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down nine percent since the beginning of March.


    Yet another possibility is that gold stocks are down because investors are disillusioned by the earnings from the sector. Take Newmont, the largest gold mining company in the world, as an example: it had marginally lower first quarter earnings than last year, despite a ten percent rise in the dollar gold price. Why own gold stocks if a ten percent increase in the gold price does nothing to their earnings? Given the leverage that gold mining stocks should have to the gold price, a ten percent increase should result in a substantial increase in earnings.


    The reason why many gold mining companies are hardly making any more money now than they were a year ago is that the gold price has been rising in US dollars because the US dollar has been falling on foreign currency markets. That means if a company is mining gold outside the United States (and not in any area where the US dollar is the de facto currency), it may not have had any benefit from the rise in the US dollar gold price. The gold price in many other currencies has not risen at all.


    Having said that, let me add that I don't know of any gold mining companies with projects exclusively in the US that are worth owning. I own a few gold exploration companies working in Alaska and Nevada, but no gold producers. The problem is that the big names, like Newmont, Barrick and Placer Dome, are so geographically diversified that they cannot be called US gold mining companies. They may be listed on US stock exchanges, but because their operations are scattered all over the world, the increase in the US dollar gold price has had a marginal, if any, impact on their bottom line earnings.


    Does this mean that gold stocks will continue to under-whelm us when the US dollar gold price strengthens?


    If the market were rational the answer would be yes. Only the stock of those gold mining companies that have direct leverage to the falling US dollar (in other words, gold mines in the US) should see their share prices increase as the dollar falls.


    However, a falling dollar not only means more dollar revenue for gold production, it will ultimately also lead to higher production costs. But the operating margins of gold mining companies with direct leverage to the falling US dollar should continue to expand for two reasons. Firstly, assuming the mine is cash flow positive, the increase in cost is on a lower base than the increase in revenues. Say the production cost is $300 an ounce and the gold price is $400 an ounce. The operating margin is therefore $100 an ounce. A ten percent increase in both revenue and cost would also result in a ten percent increase in operating margin: 440 - 330 = 110. Secondly, the increase in revenue from a decline in the dollar is instantaneous while the increase in costs will come more gradually. Therefore, as long as the dollar falls faster than the rate of inflation (the most likely scenario) the operating margins of a US based gold mining company should increase much more rapidly than the example above.


    But the market is not rational. Most investors still look at the US dollar gold price as "the" gold price and when gold increases in US dollars they buy gold stocks almost indiscriminately. Once enough investors figure out that an increase in the US dollar gold price does not necessarily benefit all gold mining companies, then the gold stocks as a sector could very well under-perform the US dollar gold price.


    Is this already happening? I do not think enough investors are paying attention to the geographical location of mining operations and the impact of currency exchange rates yet. So I suspect that the lackluster performance of gold stocks at the moment has more to do with the general malaise in the market.


    We are at a precarious point in the economy and the financial markets. I have written much about where I think the dollar, the gold price and the economy is going. I don't see anything to change that view. Rather, I see current events as confirming that we are on track to see a major decline in US economic growth, further weakening of the dollar and, as a result, much higher US dollar gold prices.


    Paul van Eeden

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