Nachdem irrtuemlich der erste Teil vom Thema geschlossen wurde erlaube ich mir den zweiten Teil zu eroeffnen.
Herzlichen Dank fuer alle Informationen und Vermutungen wie sich weiter Gold und Silber sowie der HUI und XAU verhalten werden.
Today’s New York Times Magazine carries an interesting story on gold and some of the main players in the gold market including myself. I have taken the liberty of excerpting the section about me for the Gold Community and am also including a link so you can read the story in its entirety.
Believing (and Believing and Believing) in Bullion
By Stephan Metcalf NYT
Published: June 5, 2005
James Sinclair is a 64-year-old American businessman in a tan blazer and navy blue slacks. From his manner and dress, he could be host to an Amway seminar. But when he speaks, he sounds more like a karma yogi. It's as if you're watching a movie dubbed with the wrong soundtrack. ''Silence is deep rest,'' Sinclair told me as we waited for sandwiches at a deli. ''It's the only way to restructure ourselves.'' Among the most famous gold speculators, Sinclair proclaimed in the 70's that gold, then at $150 a troy ounce, would hit $900. (It eventually peaked at $887.50; he sold his position the following day, for a profit of more than $15 million.) Then, with some analysts predicting that gold could go as high as $2,000, he declared the gold bull market dead. (Within months, he was proved right.) In 2001, with gold near its bear-market lows, Sinclair told Forbes magazine that it could hit $430. On the day I met him, gold was trading at $434. Sinclair remains a star attraction at gold conferences around the world, but in the 1980's he sold his brokerage firm and took his wife and two of his daughters to the foothills of the Berkshires, where he lives on a 40-acre equestrian compound featuring its own 9,000-gallon water system, its own electrical system and a shooting range. (''I like to cut a target every now and again,'' he told me. ''Get out my aggressions.'') Sinclair's private office sports the typical C.E.O. blandishments -- a massive mahogany desk, a wall-mounted flat-panel computer monitor -- but also a profusion of religious items. Incense always burns, and a temple gong sits in the corner, along with a prominently displayed statue of Ganesh. Behind the desk there is a full-color portrait of Bhagavan Sri Sathya Baba, whom Sinclair visits frequently in India. ''I am an enquiring soul,'' he replied, when I asked if he was Hindu. ''All the great minds have wandered the Indus Valley.''
Perhaps because he has found spiritual satisfaction elsewhere, Sinclair regards gold with dispassion. ''Gold is not to be loved or hated, accepted or refused,'' he said. ''Gold is not barbaric or angelic. It fixes nothing in itself. But it is a mirror.'' Sinclair sees the health of the dollar reflected in the price of gold, and the health of the dollar is now in foreign hands. ''We're not talking about what I want, but about what is,'' he told me, as he picked through a tuna salad. ''If we go over $529, that is not good news,'' he said, referring to the price of gold. ''Anyone cheering for a high price of gold should get on Prozac.'' Sinclair says that when the dollar acts successfully as the world's currency, gold naturally returns to its status as a mere commodity. In the parlance, it demonetizes -- it loses out to the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But a mismanaged dollar, he said, could cause gold to remonetize. Our world would look very different then. ''The first sign is the foreign banks will diversify out of dollars. Then they will cease buying dollars. And then they will sell them.'' What could happen then? ''Stagflation. . . . Expansion of U.S. federal deficit. Expenses rise and incomes drop.''
Are we talking apocalypse? ''The most likely crisis is the collapse in the common stock of the operating entity. In this case, the operating entity is the United States, and the common stock is its currency.'' We had made our way up a hill, to Sinclair's koi pond and its accompanying meditation gazebo. As if on cue, what appeared to be a military airplane flew across the sky. ''That's carrying Iraqi supplies,'' Sinclair told me. ''We have war and monetary easing at the same time,'' he said, shaking his head. ''Everything has its season. That includes gold. Do I have a bet on gold? You know I do. Will I one day unravel that bet? You know I will.''
Meinst du diesen Thred hier ?
Ulfur plaediert fuer die Oeffnung des Orginalen Thread der von Thai Guru aufgemacht wurde so wie ich es sehe.
Ich stimme dazu bei und habe mittlerweile diesen aufgemacht da wir sonst keine Info's haben.
Dieser hier kann von mir aus wieder geschlossen werden wenn der alte aufgemacht wird.
Schlauerweise hat man nun beide zusammengefasst
As predicted, the dollar was strong during the last week. When a good time comes for any commodity or currency, reports concerning it become positive and everybody gradually starts commenting on that subject. Five months ago, no one thought that the Euro could go down like it has, but time or the wave has made it happen. Negative news against the Euro slowly started floating and its holders and buyers soon began losing faith as well as money. Well, it doesn’t matter whether millions of people hold it or buy it; the wave is capable of breaking each and every barrier. Some of the questions in peoples’ minds today are whether the Euro will survive, how much further it will go down and if the correction over.
Let us now see what this week says:
PREDICTIONS FOR 6 JUNE TO 10 JUNE 2005
Last week, gold went up on Thursday as predicted, a positive sign on a positive day. The US Dollar has also been moving up though its impact on gold has not been too negative in the last two months. The signs are therefore encouraging though the time factor for the medium term isn’t in favour of gold. Indeed, gold’s short-term outlook for the month of June as well as its long-term are remain positive. However, the same cannot be said for the medium term (three to nine months).
For this week, gold will trade on weak side but not have much changes in prices overall by Friday. Gold will be down from Monday to Wednesday though one can buy on Thursday and Friday.
Always bear in mind that the performance of gold will not be good for 2005. It looks weak after June and half of July and I shall update you if any changes occur.
This week Gold will move in the range of $426.80 to $416.80 (spot price).
During the previous week, silver traded as though it had no relation with gold and the US Dollar. Indeed like I always remind you in the commentary, my long-term outlook for silver is very positive.
Silver will be sidelined this week or trade down till Wednesday. One can buy on Thursday or Friday.
Next week will be very important for metals and I shall do my best to guide you on how to plan for June and half of July.
This week’s low side will be $7.29 and if it breaks this level, then it could go to $7.20. On the upside, silver could move up to $7.66.
For the most part of the last three years, I have been more than 90% accurate on copper. However, the last three weeks have been inaccurate and this alerts me that there may be something else. Today I have done a detailed study on copper and it seems as though it will have a sharp decline before Wednesday’s market close. If this doesn’t happen, then I shall recommend that you cover all short positions in it on Wednesday before New York’s closing.
Both commodities will be range bound though one can start accumulating Palladium from Friday. No new buying is recommended in Platinum.
Oil went up quite strongly during the last week and I remembered that in March I had recommended buying oil from 19th May. On 18 May oil was trading around $47 and it would have been great buying at that price. I however missed that and recommended shorting it last week.
All my major predictions on oil in the last three years have been fulfilled.
This week oil will be weak therefore new selling RECOMMENDED but cover it around $51.10 and wait for my predictions next week.
Oil will trade in the range of $48.10 to $56.90 in the month of June.
I don’t see any rise in unleaded gas, heating oil and natural gas so please don’t buy them or hurry to cover your short.
In my news alert, I recommended selling bonds on Friday. They went up and then a sharp decline occurred. For the short-term, one can short the bond because they may fall up to 115, though bearing in mind that my long-term outlook for the bond is very positive. Many traders that have been trading in the bond market for many decades are still not convinced about my long-term view. Well, I always leave everything to time as it unravels all answers.
The US dollar index is moving like a Tsunami wave. It is 100% in the grip of nature. The down side risk is 1.5% while there is no limit on the upside. Why therefore not with the rising nature wave. In the whole process of the dollar’s rise, the Euro was the most wounded. I see it stabilizing around 1.1880 and trading in the range of 1.1880 to 1.23.88 before moving down towards 1.12.
For the medium-term, all currencies shall steadily lose the battle against the US Dollar.
From Monday to Wednesday of this week, the dollar index and indeed all currencies will remain very volatile. Only active traders should trade, as price movements shall be very fast on both sides.
The dollar index should touch another new high early this week and then move down till early Thursday. From Thursday, the dollar will assert its dominance once again.
The dollar index will soon trade above 90.00 after being involved in a war-like situation with other currencies.
I sold part of my dollar index holding on a high last week and will buy again on weakness during this week.
OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK:
AVOID METALS TILL THURSDAY
SELL OIL, UNLEADED GAS, NATURAL GAS AND HEATING OIL
SELL EUROPEAN AND USA STOCK MARKET
Sooner or later, the world's investors will realize that neither the US, nor the EU, nor the yuan, can offer what they promise - and people will figure out that the Chinese were right to advise their citizens to accumulate gold bullion (which by the way is a first in the history of modern government, to my knowledge).
Consequently, investors will start accumulating gold bullion themselves very soon.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
Since the US$ Index seems to lead gold prices it is instructive to quickly look in on this Index. Long and intermediate term can be quickly summarized as bullish with all indicators and P&F charts confirming. It's the short term that is most interesting. With the actions of the recent few weeks one might expect that a rest period or even a trend reversal should lie somewhere ahead. This is what the charts are indicating. The short term price momentum has moved into its overbought zone where it has not been since the highs of Aug 2003. At that time the US$ Index plunged from 99 to 85 before it had any significant reversal. I don't expect the same plunge but do expect a period of possibly sideways movement, or maybe even some minor downside before any further significant upside continues.
Why do I think there is still more upside ahead for the US$ Index? It's the weak Euro.
What does this foretell about the price of gold? It could foretell continued upside in gold to go with the normal gold/$ opposite movement criteria.
INTERMEDIATE TERM GOLD
The intermediate term P&F chart has not changed and is still technically bearish. Due to the subsequent sideways movement since the bear confirmation the P&F chart is considered neutral and requires $410 to reconfirm the bear or $450 to confirm a reversal to the bull.
All in all, I am neutral at this point but would go bullish on a close above the $430 level.
Wie tief kann Gold ueberhaupt fallen ????:
Es gibt da ganz furchtbare ""technische"" Charts und Meinungen wie von Crystalballs invisable waves of nature news... Ich denke mir aber eines dabei:
Every Western gold trader realises that breaching a level like 400 dollars an ounce is a big moment. There will be resistance from sellers on the underside, and once through and consolidated, 400 dollars an ounce will quickly act like a floor with resistance from buyers.
Sagar der Mexikanische Peso wurde bis jetzt staerker gegenueber den Dollar, ja das ist doch komisch ???
Gold price could triple by 2015 as resources dwindle
The price of gold is set to rocket, says Andisa gold analyst Dr David Davis.
His report, 'A trilogy of gold - an exploration in three parts', indicates that gold will reach $1 200 an ounce by the end of 2015.
His prediction is that in 2008 it will go to $700 an ounce, a year later it will climb to $750 an ounce and another $50 an ounce to reach $800 an ounce in 2010.
These predictions answer the question blazing through the industry currently: what will gold sell at and what will shares be worth in 10 to 15 years' time.
In arriving at the answer, Davis looks at the current gold price, historical trends in mining operations and historical supply and demand patterns in the 55-page report.
He argues that supply is falling behind demand and fewer reserves are being mined as resources diminish.
Not a new phenomenon, but previously this trend has been masked by Central bank sales and producer hedging - a dying practice.
When this ceases, says Davis, economies of the age-old supply/demand equation will take over and flame the price of the metal.
This, he argues, will mean investors having to be in the right place at the right time to make money.
Traditionally, gold has been a haven when currencies turned risky, having soared since 1971 when the gold standard was abolished.
Currently, the dollar weakness and euro strength underpin the gold price.
Volatility in the price ensues when there is political or supply uncertainty - causing speculation in the market.
“The correlation between the dollar:euro exchange rate and the gold price is statistically significant.
“The correlation means that a one-cent change in the dollar:euro exchange rate drives the gold price by $3,6/oz,” says the report.
Davis predicts that, given the US's deficit, could see the dollar:euro go to 1,40 by year-end.
Dollar weakness will continue through 2005, possibly compounded by the Chinese yuan's move away from a dollar peg.
Add to this inflation, and the dollar will remain weak yet will continue to underpin the gold price.
Dollar weakness is set to continue for the next ten years and supply/demand factors will, as Davis says, “trigger a quantum upward change in the gold price - enough to sustain a higher gold price, but now at a new gold price $ equilibrium”.
Davis moves on to analyse gold production since 1900 which, he says indicates three regular 30-year cycles and a fourth incomplete, cycle.
This current cycle is entering a downswing, and a production upswing will only occur when global production has dropped to about 1 500 t.
“The timing of this low point in the cycle is likely to be between 2010 and 2015.”
The peak of the last cycle has already been passed, in 2001, at 2 621 t.
Davis says that mine production over the next ten years is likely to decline significantly.
This is, in part, due to dwindling reserves, and new mines coming on stream will not offset the shortfall.
Global production, says Davis, will drop after 2006 to between 2 100 t and 1 790 t by 2010.
Hopes of more gold underground dashed
Andisa calculates 29 new mines are due to come on stream.
“If all 29 new mines are commissioned, global production will decline after a possible peak in 2006.
Dwindling reserves have prompted companies to merge - merely shuffling bases of gold from one to another.
In addition, exploration has moved away from the safe Archean terrain and now the possibility of finding sizable ore-bodies is shrinking- yet again driving price up.
Davis also points out that the reserve grade is falling off, and not being replaced in time.
“The average life-of-mine is on the decline because of shrinking reserves and flat production.
“The average life-of-mine in 1998 was 10 years; in 2003, it was 9,3 years.”
Costs that have decreased on the back of the dollar are likely to swing and turn upwards.
This will trigger higher prices, he says.
Davis turns to a hypothetical gold company to determine what the future holds for gold.
Production, he says, will decline and force price up as demand outstrips supply.
This decline will be aggravated by an increase in costs, forcing marginal mines to close.
The report then turns to supply and demand over the last 16 years.
“Only once in 16 consecutive years has primary gold demand exceeded primary supply.”
On average, the yearly deficit is around 395 t.
But no trend exists between the deficit and the gold price - a trend Davis has indicated will change.
What is the future of the gold price?
Davis reiterates that the dollar will continue to underpin the gold price, but the supply/demand factor will enter the picture and push prices up.
In addition, “between 2007 and 2010, supply and demand dynamics will undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and Central Bank supply and increased demand from China and investment”.
Costs will rise, forcing prices up again.
Ein ernstzunehmender Warner. Es knirscht im Gebälk des Weltfinanzsystemes ...
Greenspan sieht Hedge-Fonds in Schwierigkeiten
US-Notenbankchef Alan Greenspan sieht harte Zeiten für die Branche der Hedge-Fonds heraufziehen. Nach Ansicht Greenspans sind die Fonds zuletzt sehr hohe Risiken eingegangen.
Der Sektor habe den Weg leichter Gewinne gewählt und könnte nun vor einer Baisse stehen, da auf der Suche nach hohen Gewinne höhere Risiken eingegangen werden müssten, sagte Greenspan laut Redetext einer Ansprache. "Nach ihrem zuletzt raschen Aufstieg könnte die Branche der Hedge-Fonds zeitweise schrumpfen. Und viele wohlhabende Fondsmanager und Anleger könnten weniger wohlhabend werden", sagte Greenspan. Die Suche nach überdurchschnittlichen Renditen könne Risiken schaffen, denen unangemessene Gewinne gegenüberstünden.
Schätzungen gehen davon aus, dass sich der Wert der von Hedge-Fonds kontrollierten Anlagewerte in den vergangenen fünf Jahren weltweit auf rund 1000 Mrd. $ verdoppelt hat. In seiner Rede verwies Greenspan vor allem auf die hohen Risiken, die Hedge-Fonds angesichts der weltweit niedrigen Langfristzinsen eingegangen seien.
Banken können Risiken ausgleichen
Für das gesamte Finanzsystem stellte der Chef der US-Notenbank fest, es könne sich dem Schaden durch eine Schwäche der Hedge-Fonds nur entziehen, wenn die Banken, die den Fonds Geld leihen, mit ihren Risiken effizient umgingen. Greenspan sagte zudem, die Hedge-Fonds hätten zu einer robusteren Wirtschaft beigetragen. Dies sei wichtig, weil die Politik nicht immer rechtzeitig Schwächephasen vermeiden könne.
reuters, 11:35 Uhr
© 2005 Financial Times Deutschland, © Illustration: AP
Nannte Buffet Hedge Fonds nicht auch Finazielle Massenvernichtungswaffen? Befürchte da kommt noch einiges auf die Finanzwelt zu...
OOPs, da platzen bald einige Blasen.
Heute hat General Motors angekuendigt das 25.000 Arbeiter entlassen werden sowie einige Fabriken dicht macht bis 2008.
Die moechte ich aber beim naechsten Jobless Report mal sehen.
Morgan Stanley sagte das Gold ueberbewertet ist mit dem starken Dollar und schwups gings heute gleich runter.
Ist schon komisch das mit wenig Worten gleich der Markt in Bewegung kommt wenn nur einer schreit.
Wie immer versucht man alles um den PPT auszuhelfen damit Gold unten bleibt damit ja keiner die Flucht ergreift.
And the beat goes on.......
Die Flucht kommt spaeter !
Meiner Erinnerung nach bezog sich das Etikett "Massenvernichtungswaffen" auf die Derivate. Aber beschwören könnt ich es auch nicht mehr ...
Laut BIZ sind nur Gold Derivative im 2. HJ. 2004 um etwa 16%, ca. 58 Milliarden $ angewachsen - und Gold ist nur ein relativ kleiner Sektor im allgemeinen Derivativ Topf von derzeit rund 380 Billionen (=Trillion) Dollars an Notional Values.
Die letzten beissen die Hunde, heisst es. Und die letzten Counterparties sind widerum die Steuerzahler. Das nennt man auch Sozialisierung des Risikos und ist nur die brutale Weiterentwicklung von securitized package deals.
Die finale Stufe heisst Monitization - siehe Treasuries der karibischen Freibeuter, oder sehe ich das falsch, AG?
kann man sehn
wenn man zehn
in eine Dose stopft wo sieben liegen ...
Noch etwas zum Bericht von De Chastelain, den frr einstellte.
Da heißt es in der Conclusio:Zitat
With gold we have the recent No votes to the European Constitution. At first glance this would seem to be disasterous for gold, given the correlation between the Euro and gold over the past few years. That is until you remember that the Euro has actually been a competitor to gold, and has been attracting investment for the same reasons as gold - i.e. getting the hell away from the US greenback.
Das würde ich auch unterschreiben.
Nur ist die frage, ob dieses geld in Gold geht.
1. Es steht im Juni noch eine Zinserhöhung an in den USA, die den $ wieder attraktiver macht (nicht für mich!!!)
2. Es kann auch in die Aktienmärkte gehen. Wobei zu bemerken ist, dass der DOW an der Kippe steht. Die weitere Richtung wird sich auch bis ca. 20 Juni zeigen. Geht er nicht mehr über die Höchstmarke, die er im März erreicht hat, dann geht´s abwärts.
Ansonsten bin ich auch z. Großteil seiner Meinung.
Ich sehe allerdings die Möglichkeit, dass die Maitiefs noch mal getestet, wenn nicht unterschritten werden, für ziemlich groß an.
Betrifft mehr den POG als die Minen.
Hier auch nochmal der Link zu Zielmann: "Why buy gold?", der sehr gut zu dem obengenannten Bericht passt.