Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

kalle14

Wenn ich die Analyse von Faber richtig interpretiere, glaubt er langsam, im Gegensatz zu früheren Aussagen, immer mehr, dass die Weltwirtschaft eher vor einer Deflation, und nicht etwa einer Inflation stünde.

Er glaubt wie ich selbst ebenfalls auch, dass die Überbewertung von Assets, wie Imobilien, Aktien, Bonds, Gold und Silber nicht mehr lange gemeinsam steigen können.

Er befürchtet, dass wir bereits direkt vor "etwas grossem" stehen würden, sagt dabei aber leider nicht genau "WAS". Faber erklärt gleichzeitig, dass er auch nicht weiss, wann denn genau diese von ihm erwähnte Assets Bubble schlussendlich platzen werde. Er rät allgemein zu grösster Vorsicht, was immer auch das genau heissen mag, und verschweigt uns in diesem Artikel leider, in was für Assets er denn selbst investiert.

Bis hierhin kann ich Faber verstehen, und seine Ansichten auch mittragen. Danach habe ich aber allergrösste Mühe seine weiteren Schlussfolgerungen, und Bedenken bezüglich Gold und Silber, oder anderen Comodities zu verstehen.

Abenfalls kann ich seine indirekte Empfehlung Cash zu halten (damit meint er nicht den US Dollar) nicht verstehen. Es ist überhaupt nicht das, was meiner Ansicht nach zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt empfehlenswert sein kann.

"Cash" welche Währung auch immer das sein mag istimmer nur "Fiat Money". Geld ohne, oder in Fällen wie z.Bsp. dem Euro, sehr wenig Deckung.

Für mich ist "Cash" halten gleichbedeutend mit physischem "GOLD", oder Silber halten.

Darin, "Papier Geld" Fiat Money ohne Deckung zu halten, sehe ich abgesehen von kleineren Mengen die man kurzfristig für den Lebensunterhalt braucht keinen wirklichen Sinn.

Gold und Silber ist Geld und Cash zugleich genug, und lässt sich bei Bedarf sehr schnell in Fiat Money umwandeln. Ein Krügerrand wird mit Sicherheit auf der ganzen Welt immer sofort in Papiergeld gewechselt werden können.

Umgekehrt, da bin ich mir, im Gegensatz zu Faber aber immer sicherer, dass Fiat Money (Papier Geld) eben schon sehr bald nicht mehr, oder nur gegen viel grössere Mengen Papier Geld umgetauscht werden kann, als bisher, und dass es auch keine Garantie dafür geben wird, dass zukünftig "Papier Geld" überhaubt noch in Gold, oder noch weit mehr gültig, Silber getauscht werden kann. Ab einem gewissen Zeitpunkt kann aus Verfügbarkeitsgründen die Nachfrage höchstwahrscheinlich nicht mehr befriedigt werden, selbst bei massiv gestiegenen Preisen.

Faber hat sich in der Vergangenheit als Goldfreundlich gezeigt, umsomehr verwundern mich seine heutige Suggestion, dass "Fiat Money" Cash, echtem Geld wie Gold und Silber eventuell (Faber legt sich nocht nicht ganz fest in seiner Aussage) vorzuziehen sei.

Dass bei anziehenden Zinsen in den USA die Goldpreise kurzfristig unter Druck geraten werden, davon gehe ich ebenfalls aus, da ich mir sehr leicht vorstellen kann, dass die FED diese Unsicherheit im Markt danach ausnutzen wird, über ihre "Primary Dealer Banken" und "Zentralbank Kollegen" die Gold Preise nach unten zu bringen. Dies wird aber, so wie ich die Situation einschätze höchstens wieder eine 2-3 Wochen Episode bleiben, bis die Anleger merken dass Gold und Silber das bessere und sichere "Cash" bedeuten, und das Gold wegen den fundamentalen Daten von Angebot, und Nachfrage einfach steigen muss, weil Gold und Siber meiner Meinung nach immer noch total unterbewertet sind.

Da Faber sich meines Wissens nach, noch nie als ein der GATA nahestehender Analyst in Erscheinung trat, könnte es auch sein, dass er von den massenhaften Indizes, Belegen und Beweisen der GATA, und Leuten wie Russel, Sinclair, Butler, Murphy, Howe, Bolser, Hathaway, Chapman, Veneroso, Embry, und vielen anderen mehr, die alle von einer Preismanipulation beim Gold, und Silber ausgehen, noch keine, oder nur wenig Kenntnis hat. Anders kann ich mir seine Preis Bedenken für Gold, und Silber nicht erklären.

Im Gegensatz Zu Faber gehe ich nach wie vor von einem zukünftigen Inflationszenario aus!

Gruss

Thaiguru

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http://www.finanznachrichten.d…04-03/artikel-3211575.asp

Montag, 29. März 2004

Update Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.

Die Analysten von Merrill Lynch bewerten in ihrer Analyse vom Montag, 29. März 2004 die Aktie von Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (Class A) nach wie vor mit dem Rating "Buy". Das Kursziel für die Aktie liegt momentan bei 55 $.

© finanzen.net

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http://in.news.yahoo.com/040329/137/2c9s5.html

Monday March 29, 3:42 PM

Year-end hits gold buying, sales to resume in April

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Gold demand in India, the world's largest importer, has fallen as the financial year nears its close but buying is likely to pick up in April with the wedding season driving sales, traders said on Monday.

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Zitat

"Right now people are busy closing their account books because of the year ending," said Rajiv Popley, a leading jewellery maker in Bombay, the country's financial capital.

India's financial year runs from April to March.

Zitat

"I expect buying to pick up in the first week of April because the marriage season is still continuing," he said.

April and May are generally the busiest months for marriages in the Hindu-majority country with a population of more than one billion.

Gold trading volumes have nearly halved to 700 kg a day in Bombay, compared with peak demand of 1,200 kg about a month ago, dealers said.

They said not many new deals had been signed during the past few days. Only old contracts were being fulfilled in the western city of Ahmedabad, a leading gold trade centre.

Zitat

"We have a daily business of around 400 kg but most of that is old contracts," Ahmedabad bullion trader Pawan Chokshi said.

Traders said volatility in currency markets, had also hit the gold trade.

Last week, the Indian rupee posted its highest weekly gain in over six years. At 8:40 GMT, the rupee was at 44.04/05 per dollar, off a peak of 44.02 but still firmer than Friday's 46-month closing peak of 44.4700/4800.

Zitat

"It is not possible to trade when the currency market is so volatile, it is difficult to set a price," a New Delhi-based importer said.

Spot gold lost around $2 an ounce in Asia on Monday, retreating from a 10-week high hit last week, but Asian dealers said global security concerns would induce fresh fund buying and lift prices.

Gold fell to $420.50/1.00 an ounce by 8:40 GMT, versus $422.25/422.75 last quoted in New York. Fund buying propelled spot gold to $422.80 an ounce on Friday -- its highest level since January 14.

Domestic prices of gold follow global trends because India imports an average 1.6 tonnes a day to meet 70 percent of its annual gold needs of more than 800 tonnes.

Gold jewellery forms an important part of Hindu marriages, as parents gift their daughters the metal for financial security.

Indian households stock about 15,000 tonnes of gold accumulated over generations. The country has about 300,000 gold jewellery outlets and around three million goldsmiths and ancillary workers.

Ulfur

Nun, wenn der Kaplan von einem Gold Preis bis ende Jahr, von 480.- bis 500.- Dollar ausgeht, können wir darauf wetten, dass der Gold Preis höher stehn wird. Ansonsten ein sehr bullisher Beitrag, besonders seine Ansicht, dass die Inder jetzt neuerdings auch bei weiter steigenden Preisen Gold kaufen, scheint mir sehr akkurat zu sein.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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Breaking news

2004-03-29 16:36 GMT:

Anglo American says Western Areas' stake under review after Gold Fields deal

LONDON (AFX) - Anglo American PLC said its 18 pct stake in another South African gold miner, Western Areas Ltd, is currently "under review" for possible disposal.

The mining giant made the comment after it announced the disposal of its 20 pct interest in Gold Fields Ltd for 1.16 bln usd in cash to Russia's MMC Norilsk Nickel.

Both Gold Fields and Western Areas are considered "not central to our gold strategy which focuses on AngloGold," an Anglo American spokeswoman said.

She did not give a timetable when a decision on Western Areas could be reached.

The disposal of Gold Fields will realise a gain of around 480 mln usd for Anglo American, which it will use to pay down debts and fund its capital spending in South Africa.

mbe/bam

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http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_402310.html

Bema Gold "buy"

Monday, March 29, 2004 12:44:40 PM ET

Canaccord Capital

NEW YORK, March 29 (New Ratings) - Analysts at Canaccord Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on Bema Gold Corporation (BGO). The 12-month target price is set to $4.60.

Shares of Bema Gold, a gold mining and exploration company operating gold reserves in Russia, South Africa, Chile and Canada, are currently trading at $3.81.

According to Canaccord Capital’s research note published on March 26, the company reported Q403 EPS of -$0.06 against the estimate of $0.00. Bema Gold reported a loss of $7 million for the quarter, excluding hedge losses and project write downs, the analysts say. The company’s production in the fourth quarter declined due to lower feed grades, delays and rock breaking difficulties at the Petrex mines, the analysts add.

Canaccord Capital expects Bema Gold's production at Petrex to improve in the near term. The production at the company’s Refugio mine would recommence later this year, the analysts believe. Canaccord Capital expects the company's feasibility study on the Kupol project to be released in April this year.

The EPS estimates for 2004 and 2005 are $0.01 and $0.04, respectively.

Canaccord Capital reiterates its "buy" rating on Bema Gold Corporation.

© 2004 New Ratings

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http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…inessNews&storyID=4679937

Report:

Japan Ends Currency Intervention

LONDON (Reuters) - Japan's 150-billion-pound ($273 billion) campaign to weaken the yen and strengthen the dollar has officially come to an end, the Times newspaper reported, citing sources at the Bank of Japan.

The currency intervention campaign, which has provoked criticism in Washington and deep concern in London, is thought by Japanese officials to be no longer necessary because the country's economic recovery is gathering strength, the London Times newspaper reported in its March 29 edition.

BOJ sources said that they would intervene in the markets only when there was extraordinary volatility, but made clear that the unprecedented dollar purchases of the past seven months were formally over, the paper reported.

The BOJ and Japan's Ministry of Finance will no longer buy dollars even to smooth out the sort of sudden price spikes that have prompted intervention in the past, it added.

"Even if the market shows volatility, we believe that things are not so fragile now," the BOJ sources said, in what the paper describes as an exclusive briefing.

Zitat

"We have reached the point where we are confident that the Japanese recovery no longer depends on export strength ... the interventions have served their purpose," the sources added.

The dollar was last quoted at 105.35 (JPY=: Quote, Profile, Research) at 5:30 p.m. EST.

The intervention drive to support the falling dollar against the yen began in earnest last September, and has left Japan with paper trading losses of more than 50 billion pounds, the paper said.

The end of intervention has apparently been brought about by Toshihiko Fukui, the BOJ governor, who has restored confidence in the Japanese economy since his appointment a year ago and won plaudits from international financial authorities for his deft monetary management, the paper said.

Darf's noch ein bisserl mehr sein?

$7,131,615,529,890.35

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

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Den Teufel mit dem Belzebub austreiben

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040329…al_deutsche_derivs_1.html

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March 29 - Gold $417.40 down $4.70 - Silver $7.60 down 11 cents

Goldman Sachs Crooks Bury Bullion Again/Gold Shares Firm Up

Zitat

"There is but one straight course, and that is to seek truth and pursue it steadily." --George Washington

Same ole crud from the corrupt Gold Cartel. Gold rallied $6 and change on Friday in the first 15 minutes. It was capped the rest of that session and on into this one. Clearly, the United States Government and the rest of the cabal want to quell the budding gold excitement, increasing inflation talk and movement into hard assets.

Their greatest fear must be that gold will move much higher in all currencies, thereby creating gold bull markets around the world. MIDAS has long held that gold would never explode until the anti-trust violating cabal lost control of their rigging operation, which is what CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH has been all about. Gold’s move the past two weeks, independent of dollar weakness, was a sign they have begun to lose control, the bad guy’s worst nightmare.

For the past couple of years MOST of the pundits have associated gold’s strength with that of dollar weakness. To some degree that has been true, but that is not the real gold story in my book. The key to the gold market has been surging physical market demand gradually overpowering the efforts of The Gold Cartel to suppress the price. My take is The Gold Cartel knew the gold price would have to rise and their mission was to keep it from exploding and creating too much excitement. One way to do that was to keep gold quiet in most currencies. This would keep foreign investment demand subdued.

The way to accomplish this aspect of their mission was to take advantage of the gold/dollar relationship. The first clue to grasping this way of viewing what the gold market is all about is to understand that gold broke higher first early in 2002. The dollar then began to weaken weeks later. Finally, gold soon began to trade up on dollar weakness. However, it was misleading. The Gold Cartel let traders think gold was trading with the dollar, when in reality, the cabal was using the dollar action to set up the traders. When the dollar was weak, the specs would pour in. The Gold Cartel would "rope-a-dope" backpedal, gradually suckering more and more specs in by letting the price rise gradually as the open interest expanded and the dollar weakened further. They would cap the upward price action with their $6 rule each and every time, so the upward momentum would not attract too much attention. Meanwhile, they laid in wait for a turn up in the dollar and they would pound on gold, bringing other sellers along with them, eventually trying to elect the tech black box sell signals. Yes, gold rose as the dollar was sinking, but only at the beck and call of The Gold Cartel. Behind the scenes, it as the surging physical market which was driving gold higher, as John Brimelow has so aptly noted for years now.

This time gold demand has been so strong (as evidenced by the enormous Comex volumes also articulated by John Brimelow), the cabal was headed towards the ropes. Gold was rising independently of the dollar falling. Therefore, The Gold Cartel, led by Goldman Sachs, felt compelled to change tactics and discipline gold bulls even though the euro was higher and the dollar was weaker today. The dollar closed down .30 to 88.98 and the euro gained .38 to 121.30, yet gold was smashed.

The good news is gold’s surge over the last two weeks must have the elitist Gold Cartel shook up because if gold can rise without the dollar falling, they have lost one of their control mechanisms. Surely they are on full-scale alert and are trying to figure out other ways to handle this new developing problem.

By day’s end gold gave up most all of its Friday gains and, for all practical purposes, has been slammed by the cabal/Goldman Sachs for the last two Comex trading sessions.

Even better news for our camp is The Gold Cartel is running out of options because they are slowly running out of enough physical gold to continue their scam. Gold’s recent run-up without dollar weakness is compounded by the fact they are quickly losing control of the silver market. The more silver rallies, the more investors are attracted to gold in a wonderful reinforcing process. As in any market, silver can be bashed on any given day, but all sharp slumps will be fleeting and are opportunities to jump on board the "Silver Streak."

There were 119 silver deliveries, none for me. That means I get mine tomorrow. While we did not get a squeeze in March, the price of silver went almost straight up this month. I posited a couple of months ago an actual squeeze might be put off until May. Here’s why:

*We know a major fund is expected to receive 20 million ounces of silver sometime in April. Last I heard the seller was having trouble securing the supply.

*This is only ONE buyer. There are others including China.

*The last major source of silver supply in the world is at the Comex. The cupboard is bare in Europe. When the silver supplies begin to leave the Comex in earnest, watch out above. We also need to keep an eye on the Comex spreads. If they narrow substantially, or go even go into backwardization, it will be off to the races.

The gold open interest rose 3955 contracts to 290,975. The bullion dealers were the big sellers today, led by Dr. Evil, GS. It was The Gold Cartel who stopped Friday’s stunning surge dead in its tracks with the intention of following through today. As always, the cowered mainstream gold world remains silent about what is going on here. They are pathetic.

The silver weekly is as good as it gets. It shows silver rising straight up since around $4.60 with a congestion area stop above and below $6.50. Aside from silver’s breakaway gap at $5.80, it has no other gaps to fill in the nearby area. This is an extraordinary move so far with the acceleration phases still to come. Technically it tells us there has been a dramatic structural change in the silver market. Fundamentally, it tells us the price managers have run of enough silver to continue their scam.

Silver weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/W

Gold may be headed back to fill the gap it left last week, maybe not. Regardless, the stunning move up the past two weeks suggests gold is beginning to go through its own structural change as gold demand surges around the world. I will be surprised and disappointed if gold doesn’t make new highs for the recovery move by week’s end.

Gold weekly

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

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The John Brimelow Report

Huge seller/buyer waltz goes on

Monday, March 29, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $1.70, PM $4.73, with world gold at $420 and $420.50. Below, and dubious, for legal imports. The Reserve Bank of India allowed the currency to jump an amazing 0.91% against the $US today. This is likely to be a surprisingly supportive influence on any downswing in world gold.

Tokyo was quite indifferent to the dramatic day gold had in NY on Friday. To a large extent that was masked by the yen action, but there seemed no acknowledgment of $US dollar speculative sentiment at all. Volume was low at the equivalent of 15,300 Comex lots ( + 5 % ) the open interest fell quite steeply by the equivalent of 1,710 Comex; the active contract was up 1 yen, but world gold fell $2 from the NY close. (NY on Friday traded a huge 128,535 lots (only 14,831 switches); open interest rose 3,955 contracts.)

On Friday the Bulls made an impressive charge – impressive enough that Refco Research was tempted back in:

Zitat

"Buy 2 June Gold at the market. Risk close below $420, expect $430."

UBS remarks:

Zitat

"decent speculative buying was seen again on the floor although the rally was halted by determined selling from one US investment bank but the metal posted a positive close around $421.80/oz."

The magnitude of the buying (and therefore the selling) has shocked many observers. UBS, usually accurate in these things suggests:

"The COTR release on Friday showed a large than expected increased in the net long position, which jumped by 5.2 million ounces to 18.8 million ounces. Longs increased by 5.78 million ounces while shorts were 0.6 million ounces higher, demonstrating that a lot of new money came into gold last week, and not all of it on the long side…We estimate that the net long position is now around 20 million ounces, at a new all-time high by our calculations. (JB emphasis)"

HSBC emphasizes the rate of increase:

Zitat

"Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders data showed the total speculative long position at the close of trading last Tuesday to have been 15.5Moz, up a whopping 4.4Moz on the week. This was the largest weekly increase since August 2001"

Who are the buyers? Refco Research offers of Friday:

"the macro funds were prominent buyers, impressed by gold’s ability to hold up against adverse currency moves recently. Overnight buying set the tone for bullion strength. Good purchases were noted from the Middle and Far East"

Who are the sellers? Brave enough on Friday to sell 10 million oz of Comex gold around the $422 level seen in the first few minutes trading on Friday? On that, no one comments.

JB

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http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

"Last chance to buy cheap expensive stocks," was the call on Wall Street today. The DOW soared 116 to 10,329 and the DOG gained 33 to 1992. Hard for me to figure. Guess MB has the answer:

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Bill:

The Fed added $7.75 Billion in repos today March 29th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to rise again to $35.33 Billion. The upward move in the repo pool's 30-day moving average has had its effect and the obedient DOW has followed, up at this hour (10:30AM) 111 points to 10,330. Doubtless this rise will turn the DOW's 30-day ma a bit more towards level, though not yet completely so.

We will see the green trace of the DOW's 30-day ma turn back up to fully re-capture its former linear trend within a week and the Fed will be right back on track to keep its appointment with 11,750 on Labor Day.

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I have represented with a black line what I believe to be the target slope of the Fed managed DOW. This line is based entirely upon the guess that the Fed has chosen to display the rising DOW as a success in an otherwise dismal array of economic indicators. That this Fed strategy plainly appears to be political favoritism is Greenspan's baggage and Kerry's ammunition. However, it is difficult to imagine any real changes at the Fed even if the Democrats win in November. By that time the internal stresses caused by rising key commodities will be unbearable.

Predicting a constantly rising DOW isn't that radical given the past history
of the Weimar stock markets and the Kuwaiti camel market so eloquently
described by Frank Veneroso. BOTH these markets were similarly devoid of fundamental economic substance and BOTH simply stopped trading at their "highs". There was no crash...just a kind of quiet disintegration.

The rising DOW will lead astray millions who could otherwise save their fortunes by placing them in tangible, fungible assets. Gold, being the most fungible substance on Earth, leads the way and silver isn't far behind.

All that is required is the acceptance of the teetering frailty of US paper "markets" as evidenced by outlandish government claims of economic "growth" amid what is obviously a rising depressive, unemployment disaster.

BTW at 11AM EST, the LBMA STILL hasn't reported February's precious metals
volume.
Mike

But, there is no inflation - from The King Report:

The Chicago Tribune on Sunday ran a front page feature story that marks a public epiphany – "Prices rising despite low inflation rate – Key indicators questioned." You’ve hard the gist of the story from us for years, but the fact that that government economic statistics are increasing thought to be bogus is heartening. The reporter, Greg Burns, appearing on WGN-TV on Friday said he doesn’t care what the Fed or government officials say; people are paying a lot more for energy, food, healthcare, etc. Record gasoline prices, yearly double-digit healthcare increases and the highest food commodity prices in 20 years are facts that consumers feel each day. The blatant no-inflation lies of Fed officials, the administration, Congress and Wall Street shills are increasingly seen as self-serving mendacity.

-END-

But, there is no official inflation! How can there be when the reports are messed with:

Bill;
The latest fraud from the Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding PPI. This tells me we are definitely going to hit the wall if we aren't already in it.

"The March 18, 2004 release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January 2004 contained erroneous January index levels for four commodity index series: All commodities, farm products and processed foods and feeds, industrial commodities, and all commodities except farm products. These index series appear in Table 3 of the PPI News Release and in Tables 6 and 8 of the PPI Detailed Report. They also are available on the BLS website.

The error in calculating January index levels was made in a step that is unique to these four series. The correct January 2004 index levels are 141.0 for all commodities, 136.4 for farm products and processed foods and feeds, 141.9 for industrial commodities, and 142.6 for all commodities except farm products. The published index values for all series other than the four listed above, and for all months other than January 2004, are not affected.

The January 2004 index values for the four affected series now have been removed from the time series database and will not be available in the PPI Detailed Report. In addition, the originally released values for any percent changes involving January 2004 were incorrect for those four series. Those percent change values also will not be available. In the next three monthly releases of PPI data, percent changes from January 2004 to subsequent months will not be available for the four series.

It should be noted that all January PPI data are preliminary and will be revised after four months in accord with the usual PPI policy. When May 2004 data are released, final values for January 2004 will appear for all series levels and percent changes, including those affected by the error described here. At that time, percent change calculations also will be published for periods beginning or ending in January 2004."

Remember everyone, Pharmalat was insolvent for a few months before anyone woke up and informed us. If it wasn't so serious, I'd laugh.
best
Rob

Will they or won’t they:

LONDON, March 29 (Reuters) -- Japan's 150-billion-pound ($273 billion) campaign to weaken the yen and strengthen the dollar has officially come to an end, the Times newspaper reported, citing sources at the Bank of Japan.

The currency intervention campaign, which has provoked criticism in Washington and deep concern in London, is thought by Japanese officials to be no longer necessary because the country's economic recovery is gathering strength, the Times reported in its March 29 edition….-END-

* * *

Ministry of Finance says intervention continues

http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…e=topNews&storyID=4680183

TOKYO, March 29 (Reuters) -- Japan's Ministry of Finance said on Monday it would continue its policy of currency market intervention, shrugging off a British
newspaper report that Japan would stop its intervention campaign.

"We have been intervening all along based on the Boca Raton statement" by the Group of Seven countries "that excessive volatility and disorderly movement are
undesirable -- and we will continue to do so if necessary," a senior MOF official told Reuters.

"There seems to be a lot of talk about a policy change in March or April, but there is no change in our intervention policy," he said…

-END-

This excerpt from Richard Appel’s latest piece sells it all when it comes what is going to happen to the price of silver and why:

BEWARE OF A RULE CHANGE FOR SILVER

Dr. Richard S. Appel

…….The enormous commodity short position against silver has been at an unsustainable level for quite some time. It appeared obvious that the shorts would eventually be forced to cover their positions. Further, given the amount of silver that they owed, a massive short squeeze seemed the likely outcome. The only question has always been one of timing! Now, we appear to be at the thresh-hold of the silver shorts long-awaited day of reckoning.

Given the fact that the above events appear to be coming to a head, the ultimate outcome will be a significant spike in the silver price. This will be needed to attract the sale of a sufficient quantity of silver from the "strong hands", in order to clear the market. I believe that this process has now been set into motion! When the smoke settles, the only question is the needed dollar price that will effect the balance of the white metal's supply and demand.

-END-

The silver price is going to soar. When it races towards $10, we should see scrap silver coming out of the woodworks from places like India, etc. This will slow down the price advance. The technicals could turn and we could get a substantial correction from that level (approx). However, the correction will not last too long because this new supply will dry up. Then, silver will take off again shooting for a new high level, like $15, where the scrap drill will start anew. This process should kick in over and over until silver reaches the $40 area in a couple of years. This is how the market will be "CLEARED." It will be supply of silver scrap which will ration the demand.

More April silver demand coming:

Central Fund Enters Underwriting Agreement
Friday March 26, 9:12 am ET

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 26, 2004--Central Fund of Canada Limited ("CFOC") of Calgary, Alberta announced today that it has entered into an agreement with CIBC World Markets Inc. under which the underwriter has agreed to buy and sell to the public, in Canada and in the United States under the multijurisdictional disclosure system, 17,000,000 Class A Shares of CFOC. CFOC has also granted the underwriter an option to purchase an additional 2,500,000 Class A Shares.

The purchase price of U.S.$5.85 per Class A Share is expected to result in proceeds of approximately U.S.$99,450,000. Substantially all the net proceeds of the offering have been committed to purchase gold and silver bullion, in keeping with the investment policies established by the board of directors of CFOC, for settlement at closing of the issue. The additional capital is expected to reduce the operating expense ratio in favour of the Shareholders of CFOC.

Closing is expected to occur on or about April 8, 2004……

Contact:

Central Fund of Canada Limited
J.C. Stefan Spicer, 905-648-7878
info@centralfund.com http://www.centralfund.com

Nothing to sneeze at:

At closing, this will bring the total CEF holdings up to 16.83 tonnes of Au and 841.5 tonnes of Ag - which may be the second largest privately identifiable physical hoard of Silver (assuming Buffets is still in physical, rather than paper form now, and also assuming he still has it given his extraordinary silence in subsequent shareholder reports.) The physical 50oz Ag to 1oz Au ratio has been maintained since the mid 1980s by CEF. With Shares o/s rising to 79.3, were not far off the US$500 mil market cap level that should put it on a lot more radar screens.

-END-

The other big story of the day is the rumor circulating about Newmont buying out pitiful Barrick Gold. There were no more arrogant people in the entire gold industry three years ago than these increasingly diminutive ex so-called giants. Now, they have been reduced to groveling to explain their day-to-day goings on. The bottom line is they have a toxic hedgebook, one which will blow up when gold streaks past $500 per ounce. GATA warned of this years ago and it appears to be coming to pass.

Barrick CEO Greg Wilkins makes no sense, nor do the rest of the Barrick executives. From The London Telegraph article in their scoop yesterday:

Barrick claims that its hedging programme made it a large profit during periods of weakness in the gold price. But it accepts that if it had to wind up its hedge book today, the company would make a loss of $1.6 billion.

"The hedge position has contributed over £2bn of cash flow to the company. It is one of the main reasons why the company balance sheet has been so strong while Newmont had to raise $1 billion from shareholders when the gold price was weak," Wilkins said. –END-

Wilkins extols the facts that Barrick’s realized $2 billion hedge book gains were a reason for Barrick’s strength. However, he can’t unwind the hedge book because Barrick would incur $1.6 billion of losses. Well, excuse me, what will Barrick’s losses be when gold soars through $500? Meanwhile, he takes a shot at Newmont whose share price has risen $24 per share more than his own, despite their needed share dilution. Barrick wouldn’t listen to GATA years ago and all those who wrote to them about lifting their hedges BEFORE gold soared. They refused to pay attention and now their shareholders are paying the price. How could Barrick’s management receive so much credit for being so smart when they were so dumb?

Wilkins is in La-la land. He also says in the Telegraph article:

"As long as our share price is at the current valuation I would have no interest in using our shares in a deal. If they want a hostile bid they are going to have to recognise that our shareholders will want a full price," Wilkins told The Sunday
Telegraph. "And that means we are going to strongly oppose any hostile transaction."

Newmont would be nuts to go after Barrick at these ridiculously HIGH share prices. Barrick is going to blow up and Newmont will be able to buy them at a fraction of what they would have to pay today. Barrick’s "good will" is going to turn into "bad will in the not too distant future and be worth a negative to their share price.

What other Café members have to say on this issue:

bill

if true this is damage control by the cabal Before abx blows up. this means much higher gold is right around the corner and they know it. hence get barrick safe and sound NOW before it takes down a few bullion banks.
the cabal is confirming this fact by having the darling abx taken over by nem
this is proof positive gata was right all along and 500+ is here now.
congratulations
ted

Hi Bill:

Some observations on this press release:

LOL! Wilkins is out of his mind if he thinks anyone familiar with hedging and gold mining believes the manure he's shoveling. He WISHES someone would rescue that sad sack of a hedging operation masquerading as a gold miner from the inevitable folly about to descend on their most deserving heads as this gold bull rears up and kicks some serious patooti. Either he still believes gold is still in a bear market, or, more likely, he is grasping at the last straws available to the cornered rats of the Gold Cartel of Common Interest.

Why on Earth would Newmont want to acquire a dead dog meat hedger like Barrick? Makes no sense whatsoever. After they've worked overtime to reduce the hedges inherited from Normandy before gold prices go ballistic, they want to take on Barrick's ballast? This does not pass the smell test. The unhedged PM shares look ready to explode upwards, and Barrick is about to eat heaping helpings of their dust. What better subversive strategy than to bash away at the Leader of the Pack of the large cap unhedged miners with a phony acquisition ruse. Of course, if someone wanted to knock a little steam out of Newmont by baiting the arbitrageurs, this would be an entirely expected, but alas, a woefully transparent strategy.

Uh-uh, I'm not buying it, and knowledgable investors will not either. It's obviously desperation time in the La-La Land of irresponsible gold hedging. Go GATA and GO Gold!

Regards, Tom K.

Hi Bill and Chris

There is no clearer marker that the gold market is controlled by big banks (the Gold Cartel) that this news that Newmont is considering buying Dracula, excuse me Barrick Gold.

This is not good news for the shareholders of Newmont as all the unhedged gold that Newmont shareholders thought that they would sell at higher prices in the years to come will now be used to ease the exit the gold shorts out of what is now an impossible position; I am talking about Barrick's multi-million ounces hedge book. Why burden long suffering Newmont shareholders with buying a company like Barrick that logic clearly shows to be a liability rather than an asset in a rising gold market. Newmont shareholders must understand that their company's managers are going to pledge their companies capital to mine millions of ounces of gold that Barrick has already sold for under $300 an ounce. No doubt this cheap gold, sold years ago by Barrick and mined by Newmont in the years to come, if this deal goes through, will go right back in to the control of the Gold Cartel. Who thought up this deal?

Barrick is a dead man walking, the logical position for Newmont is to wait until Barrick goes bankrupt, along with their investment bankers who in fact engineered Barrick's demise with their harebrain derivatives schemes. This is what would be good for Newmont as this would send gold and silver to the moon and allow Newmont to sell their shareholders gold and silver at much higher prices. To do other wise sounds to me of malfeasance on the part of Newmont's management toward their long suffering shareholders. I am damn glad that I own no shares of any gold company that would allow their significant and irreplaceable gold resources to be utilized in such a manner that would benefit people that have done everything possible to bankrupt the industry at the expense of their shareholders.

Mark

The gold shares firmed up despite bullion’s trouncing. The XAU closed .87 higher at 103.41, while the HUI gained 1.16 to 231.79 and closed above KEY technical resistance at 231. This close should attract more buying tomorrow.

What is important most to keep in mind:

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS