Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Prediction from 18 July to 23 July 2005:

GOLD
Last week gold prices remain weak and they will continue to remain weak even during this week (except Tuesday). I am expecting gold prices to move down by two to three percent. Metal stock shall remain down.

On higher side gold price will touch $424.80 and down side $416.80. Gold should remain above $416.80 and if gold close below than it may touch $409.80.

Current trend DOWN OR SIDE WAY.

SILVER

During this silver prices will remain stable and Friday one can buy in a small quantity for the next three weeks.

BUY SILVER ON FRIDAY MORNING.

Trend for this week: $7.09 TO $6.82. Buy immediately if it remains above $7.09 for one day.

nana, nun mach mal den guten alten C64 nicht schlecht!

nur das Datasettenzeug hat immer mal gehakelt. Tja, damals war das Laden eines Programms mitunter eine abendfüllende Angelegenheit.

Hi Folks,

bin seit geraumer Zeit in Goldminen und Gasaktien investiert.
Werde mal in der nächsten Zukunft hier ein bischen
mitplaudern bzw schreiben.
Übrigens bin ein Niederbayer.......

Servus

@ Captain Proton
nana, nun mach mal den guten alten C64 nicht schlecht!

Es braucht die Rechenpower eines Pentium IV, 256 MB RAM und 10 GB
Festplattenspeicher, um Windows XP laufen zu lassen.

Es brauchte die Rechenpower von drei C64, um zum Mond zu fliegen.

Irgendetwas stimmt mit unserer Welt nicht...

das sehe ich allerdings auch so

fourninefine

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]

$850 gold forecast out of Australia

PERTH (Mineweb.com) -- Privately-owned Aussie-based research and financial advisory group, Fat Prophets, is tipping the price of gold will more than double over the next few years during which it expects real assets to outperform financial assets.

Set to precipitate the gold price increase to “well north of US$850” is a climate of further US dollar depreciation and soaring oil prices and concerns it may lead to a material slowdown in US and global economic growth.
As a result a softer economic growth scenario and weak US dollar may help fuel the flight to and improve the appeal of real assets such as gold.

According to Fat Prophets, the key catalyst of the predicted US dollar descent is the US debt-driven consumption spree, which has generated a whopping current account deficit and is unsustainable.

“America has witnessed a consumption boom financed by debt on an unprecedented scale,” it stated. “History tells us that no country has been able to borrow indefinitely.”

Many analysts feel the bursting of this bubble will be extremely damaging to the US dollar, which in turn may create a “significant source of instability for the world financial system”.

“All bubbles end, and we believe the latest low interest rate induced asset bubble will prove no exception,” foreshadowed Fat Prophets analyst Angus Geddes.

“For the US, when the music finally stops, the hangover will likely be considerable as the economy corrects the incumbent sizeable imbalances.
“This bodes dark tidings for the US dollar, and we anticipate that the greenback has much further to fall.” (It has lost as much as one-third of its value since 2002.)

Similar to the 1970s, commodities or real assets have risen strongly this decade and Geddes claimed it appears “the rush has begun to convert US dollars into tangible assets” and “the case for investing in gold continues to grow”.

“We believe real assets will outperform financial assets over the next few years … (and that) gold will rise well north of US$850 an ounce over the medium to longer term,” forecast the Sydney-based analyst, who is one of the co-founders and a director of Fat Prophets.

If Geddes’ outlook for the gold price comes to pass, some gold equities are expected to enjoy a favourable flow-on effect.
“Short term the price may continue to be volatile, and investors should be aware this volatility will likely be reflected in share price movements,” he cautioned.

“Nonetheless, from a longer term investment perspective, and as part of a diversified portfolio, we recommend maintaining an overweight exposure to gold and gold stocks.”
Fat Prophets also holds the view that the record oil price will eventually drag gold upwards and that it has the potential to significantly boost gold investment demand.

“Middle Eastern nations are receiving record amounts of US dollars in exchange for oil, and this is clearly having a positive impact on demand as vast quantities of 'petro-dollars' are diversified into hard assets,” it suggested.

“This last happened on a grand scale during the 1970s when a skyrocketing oil price contributed to gold hitting an all-time-high of US$850/oz.”

But, the bullion price has lagged that of oil. “Based on historic ratios between gold and oil, with oil around US$60 a barrel, gold should be valued at well north of US$500/oz,” Geddes pointed out.

“Oil and gold have historically been strongly correlated, with the relationship standing the test of time,” he added. “We believe this time around should prove no different.”

In addition, Asian nations are widely seen as having the power to become an even greater force in terms of influencing demand and price. Japan is already a major purchaser of gold (as a hedge against the risk of banks defaulting) and rapidly industrialising China (which now allows individuals to buy gold direct from banks) and India are sleeping giants.

Hommel auf gold eagle:

Copper, Oil, & Silver
by Jason Hommel
July 20, 2005

So, do you feel you missed out on investing in oil since it made the move from $10/barrel to $60/barrel? Don't worry, not all commodities move up at the same time, so this means there is the opportunity to invest in those that have lagged behind, such as silver and/or copper.

It is important to look at charts of ratios between commodities. For a good site with these charts, see sharelynx.com, (access for paid subscribers only).

In 1980, at the prior peak prices for both silver and oil, oil hit about $43/barrel, and silver hit $50/oz. In other words, an ounce of silver was worth more than a barrel of oil.

At the recent low prices of silver and oil, a few years ago, silver languished at $5/oz., and oil bottomed out at $10/barrel.

Using those high/low prices as guides, and given the price of oil today, silver should be somewhere between $30 to $60 per ounce! Either that, or oil should be worth between $7 and $14/barrel. But which is more realistic?

My point is that if you are bullish on oil, you should invest in silver instead, because in the long run, silver will surely outperform oil prices as the ratios return to historic ratios of 2:1 or 1:1. See also "Of Oil and Silver", by Yi-Chang Wang, April, 2005. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wang040405.html

Wang point out that a historic divergence between oil and silver was in 1974-76, when oil was at $14-16/barrel, and silver at $4-6, for a ratio of about 3.7. Today, the ratio is over 8! Wang makes the dramatic conclusion that 0.1% of the Oil industry is $2.3 billion, which, if it went into silver, would overwhelm the silver market, and I agree. (Remember, the Huntbrother's oil money, and Arab oil money went into silver in the 1970's.)

Furthermore, remember the advantages of silver and why silver is used as money, and why oil isn't. People who wish to invest about $5000 can either invest in about 90 barrels of oil or buy 1 bag of silver that weighs 55 pounds. Which is easier? The silver is infinitely more convenient to buy and store! The masses are never going to store oil in barrels on their front lawns. But the masses will return to buying silver and gold as paper money continues to lose value.

And what about copper? At current prices of $1.60/lb., $5000 is 3125 pounds. Again, it's not nearly as convenient as 55 pounds of silver! Furthermore, most copper is produced in a form that is inconvenient to store, such as pipes or wire! Copper's recent low price was $.70/lb.

I'm interested in copper because I have invested in several silver exploration companies that also happen to have copper with their silver, such as O.T. Mining (OTMN.PK), Mines Management (MGN), and Capstone Gold (CSG.TO). Just in the course of keeping track of my stock picks, I've watched copper prices rise over 100% in the last few years.

The copper market may be getting ready to see prices explode upwards. Now, if copper moved up 6 times like oil has, copper would be $4.20/lb.! I don't think that's unrealistic, since the oil market is probably more than ten times bigger than the copper market, and it's much easier for smaller markets to see greater volatility.

Copper, like silver and oil, is traded on the abominable futures markets where liars make promises to deliver things that they do not have. Call it "phantom" copper, these excess promises to deliver copper that does not exist. To see my full disdain for the other participants in the futures markets, see my essay, "The Moral Failures of the Paper Longs." January 2003 http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel012203.html

The most interesting data in the copper market is the copper in the warehouses at the LME and the NYMEX. You can find this data here:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html

The LME is down to only 28,000 tonnes of copper left, down from about 1 million tonnes in 2002.

The NYMEX is down to only 13,500 tonnes of copper left.

It appears to me that both of these piles of copper will be gone in about two months, say, by the end of August, 2005. By that time, or sooner or later, perhaps we will see the end of copper trading on the LME and NYMEX if those markets default!

Here are a few recent articles on copper:
FOCUS: Copper Bias Remains On Upside In Near Term -- Monday June 27
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050627/18/525x.html

Key Excerpts: "Driving the market are the lowest warehouse stocks in more than three decades, with no signs of an immediate turnaround. Last week, stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.4% to 29,762 tons, while LME stocks shrank 7% to 32,100 tons.

China's sustained demand is a key component in the supportive short-term fundamental picture, Rennie said, pointing to recent data indicating China's copper imports and consumption generally will remain strong.

In addition, the Shanghai exchange has been something of a price maker in recent sessions, largely shrugging off downside pressure from the LME and New York's Comex mid last week, he said. "

My comments: The LME and COMEX are clearly involved in price capping, by selling excessive amounts of futures contracts. They now have the lowest inventories in 30 years?! And it appears that China is calling the bluff, and taking delivery of inventory! China is not just some "speculative long" who is engaging in "manipulation". China needs copper for the things they make for us, and also for their own developing infrastructure!

The point is that China is not going to be bullied out of the copper markets by manipulative regulation changes that favor those people who are selling short "phantom" copper!

Next article:
Shanghai Copper Falls; Strike at Placer Mine in Chile Ends -- July 12 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…pjF34&refer=latin_america

Key Excerpt: Chinese copper output may rise to 2.45 million tons, from 2.035 million tons last year, Yang Changhua, an analyst with Antaike, said in an interview from Beijing. Antaike is a research unit of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

Next article:
Commodity Strategists: Copper to Fall, Canaccord Says -- July 19 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…aIG7_ykmiRDs&refer=canada

Key Excerpts:

Copper prices, which reached a 16-year high of $1.61 on June 17, will remain above $1 a pound on average through 2007, said Barnes, who was rated the top metals and mining analyst in Canada this year in a survey by research company Brendan Wood International. Copper averaged less than $1 from 1998 to 2002.

Prices rose 41 percent last year as consumption in China, the world's largest buyer of the metal, climbed, leaving a supply shortage of 755,000 metric tons, according to estimates from the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group.

Global copper demand exceeded supply by 59,000 tons in the first three months this year, compared with a deficit of 452,000 tons a year earlier, according to the International Copper Study Group. The gap is narrowing as mining companies increase production.

My comments: First, who is "Brendan Wood International" who endorses Barnes's view that copper prices are headed lower? Thank the Lord for google.com. see http://www.brendanwood.com/

If you go to their web site, you can see that they are consultants to the big moneylenders, and active promoters of derivatives. To me, that appears that they have a stronger bias than I have--and my bias is as a Christian and a shareholder in the companies I mentioned above.

But more importantly, the headline in the last article does not seem to match the facts! There is still a deficit in copper of about 20,000 tons per month! That means the LME and NYMEX stocks could be completely used up in about 2 months! Further, given the rates that copper has been leaving the LME and COMEX warehouses, that figure seems about right!

A default of futures contracts in the copper market could lead people to understand the fraudulent nature and harmful effects of naked short selling in the silver and gold markets. Perhaps in a month or two, or perhaps by the end of the year, I think we will see something that will be long remembered, and could change the landscape of American markets forever.

Besides the three silver/copper explorers that I hold (OTMN.PK, MGN, CSG.TO), here are a few other silver/copper companies that I do not own, but you might consider examining:
Explorers: Western Silver (WTZ) (formerly Western Copper), CHARIOT RESOURCES (CHD.V CHDSF.PK)
Producers: Polska Miedz (KGHM), Grupo Mexico (GMBXF.PK)

On July 15th, I produced a new silver stock report, #57, at
http://www.silverstockreport.c…/silverstockreport57.html

Auf minesite .com gibt es immer folgenden Artikel:

That Was The Week That Was …. In London And Frankfurt

Hier ist der Link:

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull.php?storySeq=2891

Das Lustige an der Geschichte ist aber folgender Auszug, den man sich auf der Zunge zergehen lassen kann:
(wurde auf w.o. schön gwepusht)

Now let’s move to movers on the upside. At the most speculative end was OTC listed company Great West Gold, which is only listed on the smaller German Berlin-Bremen. This stock doubled last week with volumes of a few hundred million shares traded in Germany every day. It was all down to the lunatics on the chatboards who tend to do no research. I looked at the last official SEC filing and found out that this company has the unbelievable number of 10.3 billion (!) shares outstanding and has zero cash in the bank and liabilities of around US$900.000. Some very stupid investors didn’t understand they are buying a worthless shell company with no real assets despite some gold mining claims in Arizona and a market capitalisation still above US$14 million. Hopefully this stock will be delisted from the German exchange sooner rather than later.
Minews. I always had an idea that German investors were quite sensible. Clearly I am wrong. Anything else going on?

Grüße
Tschonko

Tschonko,
unglaublich, dass dieses gepushe auf W noch immer klappt, bei Energulf fast das gleiche....

Zitat

always had an idea that German investors were quite sensible...

Wie kam er denn darauf? [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bullfire.de/images/smilies/biggrin.gif]

http://www.handelsblatt.com/ps…ildhbi/artpage/0/cn/GoArt!200007,203855,933924/SH/0/depot/0/Minenaktien_locken_Rohstoff-Anleger_zum_Einstieg_%0D%0A.html

Goldy p.,
der link funzt nicht.
Vielleicht könntest du (eigentlich alle) bei links dazuschreiben, worum es geht. So ein bis 2 Sätze, damit es nicht in Arbeit ausartet.

Grüße
Tschonko

ich wollte euch nich mit sinnlosem geposte belästigen @ tschonko

der link geht kopiert nich keine ahnung warum das so is, es geht darum das man jetzt bei minen einsteigen soll...kanste auf goldseiten nachlesen

kann mir einer erklären warum gold und dollar heute abstürzen

Ja, hab´s selbst probiert, der geht nicht der Link.

Ich finde den Artikel von Faber interessanter:
Gute Zustandsbeschreibung + Volatilität + VIX Index

http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…/artikel.php?storyid=1449

Zu deiner Frage kann ich dir auch nichts sagen, ist mir aber egal.

Grüße
Tschonko

Hat jemand eine Erklärung für den plötzlichen Einbruch beim Silberkurs auf 6,86 $ vor ein paar Minuten ?

Ist schon reichlich komisch oder ist es ein Ausreißer ?

Gruß

Silbertaler

Nachtrag: ein war offensichtlich ein Ausreißer, der Kurs ist innerhalb weniger Minuten wieder auf 7,04 $ gesprungen.

war ein fake.
Chart steht wieder bei 7,02