Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

You're right Ghost, lets enjoy the show. :))

Ich freue mich wie ein kleines Kind und tanze um meinen PC.

Wahnsinn, die Amis und die Mexicans sowie ein paar Oil Raffineries in der Gegend kann ein neuer Hurrican treffen der vor der Tuer steht.
Er kann auch Texas treffen, die Amis bekommen wie gesagt sehr viele Blow Jobs die traurig aber wahr sind. Es spitzt sich nun alles zusammen viele werden jetzt nervous wie man sehen kann auf den Markt. Inflationsangst oben drauf, that's it !

XAX

Erstmal gibt es jetzt eine kleine Pause, da muessen die shorts und die longs mal Luft holen zwischendurch .

Gold Price - Drivers in the first half of 2005 and beyond?

Julian D.W. Phillips

Sep 19, 2005

Excerpts from the "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster."

That was the week that was !
But the most significant change in the last day has been one of perception. When the gold price returned towards its peak, most observers were suspicious and cautious. No-one wanted to set the pace. The consolidation was treated as a 'peaking', but the buyers, physical and funds kept nibbling at those positions that were triggered by activated stops. This carried on until yesterday, when all resistance dropped away and the sprint from $450 to $460 began. Now the performance in the € is far more spectacular than in the $ as you can see by looking back at the last issue, at the London Fix in the € which was €356 in the morning. Now we are at €376. Any doubts about de-coupling should have been dispelled by tis move. Gold is on its way, s we hope you went long at $456 or thereabouts as per our recommendation last week. It is looking at $480 as it brings $500 into its sights, before consolidating again. Having accepted the $450 area as its support the market opens the opportunity for long positions, but always with protective stops at support.

The next expected dampener on the gold price comes on the 26th of September, which marks the beginning of the next Centtral Bank Gold Agreement year. Whilst the programme will begin then Sweden's paltry 10 tonnes is unlikely to darken the brightness of gold. But it must have become more and more apparent that a switch to an income producing currency is a poor investment and one that may have more politics than finance involved in the decision. Will they accelerate their sales and cap the price at these levels or will they spread their sales over the whole year? Again their pattern of selling will reveal their attitude to the gold price. And the big question is what will Germany do? Will they postpone thei option to sell for another year or will they sell now? Either way the market will pull in its horns around that day!

Gold Price - Drivers in the first half of 2005 and beyond?
Here we give you only a part of our commentary on the GFMS figures and show how it fits into the picture that will dictate the next year's gold market.

more...
http://www.321gold.com/editori…llips/phillips091905.html

GOLD: With the Dollar gapping higher overnight and the trade a little concerned about the prospect of even higher US interest rates, we could understand a bit of profit taking. In fact, with the September 13th Commitment of Traders with Options report showing the Gold Non-Commercial position to be net long 134,310 contracts and the Non-reportable position also net long 35,558 contracts, the gold market is certainly tending toward a more significantly overbought condition. Considering that gold comes into the opening this morning another $15 a ton above the level where the COT report was measured, we suspect that the spec and fund long position in gold is closer to 200,000 contracts than to 170,000 contracts. With some Asian traders thinking that gold is poised to correct and the FOMC meeting looming, we wouldn't be surprised to see December gold settle back toward first support of $463.3. On the other hand, with OPEC apparently unwilling to raise the production ceiling and oil prices rising this morning, it would seem like gold has firmed relative to the overnight Asian action, possibly because of increased concerns for the US economy. The trade might also be getting some support from the weather, as another tropical storm threat for the US, could rekindle concern over the US Budget deficit and in the process increase the fear of US inflation. Therefore, the trend in gold remains up, but the market is a little short term overbought and vulnerable to increased volatility.

SILVER: The silver market continues to be pulled up by the gold market and with gold reaching such significant historical highs, those that feel they have missed the gold move are being forced into silver. While silver has already managed to climb above several key resistance points on the charts, a 7 month old downtrend channel resistance line would seem to allow the December contract a rise to $7.54 without even altering technical trends. Close-in resistance comes in at $7.40, with near term support targeted at $7.28. It is possible that the spillover from the German election is providing the Dollar with most of its lift today but for gold and silver to manage gains in the face of the Dollar rise, shows that the bull camp continues to control the precious metals markets. While an upcoming US Fed rate hike might discourage would be buyers of metals, we doubt that issue will be a permanent impact on prices. The bias is up as long as outside markets provide silver with positive direction. The September 13th Commitment of Traders with Options report showed the Silver Non-Commercial position net long 14,645 contracts, with the Non-reportable position net long 22,305 contracts for a combined long position of 37,000 contracts. However, December silver comes into the action this morning 37 cents above the level where the COT report was measured and that means the spec long position is understated. On the other hand, even with an upward adjustment off the recent rally, we doubt that the silver market is bought out.

Naja, gute Nacht 8),.. der Vollmond wirkt schon ein wenig.

Der Tag faengt ja gut an,bin gespannt.

...und darf ruhig so weiter laufen

..