Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Saturday, September 17, 2005, 1:01:00 PM EST

Real Estate Bubble May Provide Buying Power For Gold

Author: Monty Guild
WHY GOLD DOES NOT NEED INFLATION TO GO UP, AND WHY THE DEFLATION OF THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE MAY VERY WELL PROVIDE A LOT OF BUYING POWER FOR GOLD

I do not believe that the U.S. or Europe will go into a serious recession in 2006, although higher oil prices may cause U.S. and European corporate profits to rise very slowly or even be flat in 2006. Retail sales will not collapse but they will definitely slow.

Higher oil prices will not rapidly give rise to a major recession and very high inflation like they did in the 1970's for four reasons:

1. The U.S. and Europe are not as captive to energy as they were at that time. Manufacturing is a smaller part of their economies, while knowledge industries are a much bigger part.

2. The OPEC countries are twice as populous as they were in 1975, and they must spend more of their oil profits to help their people. They do not have as much surplus capital as they once did, and their resources are gradually diminishing.

3. OPEC's political stability is also rapidly diminishing. Osama bin Laden has made it clear that his first priority is to create a theocracy in Saudi Arabia. Many other OPEC members also face problems.

4. Wages in the U.S. and Europe are being held down by low prices from China and outsourcing to India. Thus, the interest rate authorities do not have to worry as much about inflation as they did in the 1970's. Inflation will tick up but it will not go to wild levels.

Global liquidity exists in excess but instead of flowing into higher wages it is flowing into asset bubbles. When the real estate bubble deflates, another bubble will replace it. The bubbles will rotate from real estate to commodities and then into stocks until the excess liquidity that causes the bubbles is drained from the system.

Global liquidity exists in excess because many countries are simultaneously creating liquidity by various means. This liquidity has flowed into real estate because of low interest rates and perceived tax advantages. The real estate bubble has run far enough that governmental authorities in Europe and the U.S. are beginning a process of deflating the bubble with higher interest rates and by jawboning.

Where will the next bubble develop? It is too early to say but I believe global investors are becoming aware that the land grab for natural resources that is currently going on may turn into a dogfight. Resources could become the next bubble.

China, Europe, Japan and the U.S. may choose up teams and square off in a fight to acquire resources (copper, coal, oil, nickel, zinc - and most importantly, gold). These resources are necessary in order to allow their respective economies to grow for the next 50 years.

Gold is money that maintains its buying power over time. The new acquirers of assets know they must have gold in their reserves to maintain the buying power of their money. Currencies can rise and fall as governments make wise and unwise decisions. Gold maintains its buying power over the long term. If the next bubble is in commodities, which remains to be seen, gold will go much higher.

This is why those with long memories like the Chinese and Indian people acquire gold and why the Chinese government is currently accumulating gold. The academics and intellectuals in Europe and the U.S. may think it is smart to sell gold.

The practical nation builders of China and other developing countries know that it is unwise - and even dangerous - to depend upon academic theorists to make practical decisions.

Moin Troisdorf

"Wenns läuft,läufts."
Bin da auch ziemlich sicher,
nicht zufällig voll investiert.
Wird ein schöner Herbst!

Grüsse

Going up: Bright future for gold
David McKay
Posted: Sun, 18 Sep 2005

[miningmx.com] -- THEREýs genuine excitement again that the dollar price of gold is to test multi-year highs and that this time, South African stocks might actually benefit. At $450/oz last week, gold was at its highest level in 17 years.

More interesting yet, dollar weakness wasnýt the cause. Normally, the weaker dollar implies a stronger rand, so South African gold stocks see dollar gold gains offset. Thatýs why thereýs an inverse relation between the dollar gold price and the JSE gold index (see graph). But with the rand stable, revenues for gold producers were higher ý about R92,000/kg ý than seen for a while.

According to Jessica Cross, MD of Virtual Metals, a UK metals research house, gold could yet burst through $470/oz. ýWe put the high at $472, and I think weýre quite comfortable with sticking with that peak for this year,ý Cross said in an interview on Classic Business, a week-nightly radio business programme.

Were this to be the case, and the rand remained at current levels of about R6,40 to the dollar, gold stocks AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields should tempt investors, says JP Morgan. However, marginal gold plays Harmony Gold and DRDGOLD will still look expensive, the stockbroker says.

Tell that to the US gold traders. DRDGOLD has doubled in price since May and Harmony is 43% stronger over the same period. According to Ilja Graulich, investor relations manager for DRDGOLD, thereýs anecdotal evidence of switching from Harmony to DRDGOLD even though the companyýs earnings will be driven from its rand affected South African mines in the short term.

Thereýs optimism everywhere. ýWe are raising our 2005 gold price forecast from $424/oz to $433/oz,ý said Alberto Arias, an analyst for Goldman Sachs in a recent note. RBC Capital Markets also updated its gold price from $450 to $485/oz for 2006. Moreover, thereýs hope in SA that the dollar gold price has ýunlinkedý from the dollar.
Is the dollar unlinking from the gold price?
ýIs gold beginning to unlink from the dollar based on the growing recognition of the coming lower gold mine supply and rising costs, or is a pullback looming after Comex gold positions hit a new peak?ý said Steve Shepherd, JP Morganýs gold analyst.

Matthew Turner, commodity analyst at Virtual Metals, said that despite a recent sell

Demise

David Chapman!!

Zitat

Original von Aladin

Friday should be the right day to buy gold and silver for the next week as I foresee a positive week.

SILVER

THE BEST INVESTMENTS:–

BUY NEXT YEAR’S CALL OPTIONS IN GRAINS AND SILVER
.

Alles anzeigen

Das hört sich schon konstruktiv an!

Grüsse

Allmählich trauen sich auch die bekannteren
Kommentatoren an den 4stelligen Goldwert.

Merv Burak sehe ich öfter bei Kitco.
Stellt auch prima Charts rein.

Grüsse

Sieht gut aus:

An M.Guru ....(und Fans)
$,ich komme..............

Dollar Update

Roland Watson
Sep 19, 2005

In an article I wrote in March on silver, I suggested a major dollar rally was imminent. As it turned out, the dollar rally had begun at the end of 2004, but it took until the summer for the move to exceed previous rally sizes and thus confirm its status.

Now in September, we have the dollar at another interesting juncture. Since 2001, the US Dollar Index traced out an Elliott impulse wave until December of 2004. The chart below shows that major bear move as well as the 65 week moving average or long term market changes. A three and half year down move shaved nearly a third off the dollar's value compared to a basket of major currencies. That move has completed as it hit the multi-decade support at the 80 level. Naturally, such a strong support line may suggest the bear is over, but as stated before, I do not believe the dollar bear market is over by a long way.

The second article I wrote on the 4th June entitled "The Curious Case of the Dollar Rally" suggested an initial rally of the 2001-2004 bear up to 91 based on a study of other smaller rallies during the dollar plunge. Four weeks after that article, the dollar topped out at 90.77 and has been on a downturn since then. So far, this drop has hit a low of 86, but how much further can it go? The chart below shows the progress of our dollar rally.

As before, I stay with my WXYcorrection pattern with the only surprise being the length the final leg took from late April until early July. A WXY corrective pattern is a rarer form than the normal ABC zigzag or flat corrections, but is nevertheless valid. However, can one say that this 6-month correction is over and the dollar bear market is about to embark on its next and possibly most damaging leg down?

On the one hand, "yes" is a reasonable answer. After all, the rally has retraced to the predicted 91 mark, it is a complete corrective pattern in and of itself and it has run longer than smaller degree rallies. All seems done and dusted, so can we now go short the dollar and long gold and silver?

Well, I have some observations that make me wonder if we are not yet over the correction. Firstly, the 6 months elapsed still doesn't look long enough for a higher degree correction. Six months constitutes 14% of the time of the prior 42-month bear down leg. Statistical studies of Elliott wave patterns suggest that nearer 30% is a better figure. That would mean the current two-month down move is only the midpoint of our overall correction to be followed by one more rally before the big plunge.

Secondly, if the rally from December did end at 90.77 in July, we would expect to see a five-part impulse wave begin the new bear leg. The numbers (1) to (5) in the chart marks this proposed impulse wave. It looks neat enough at a superficial level, but one of the classical rules of Elliott Wave Theory stipulates that wave 4 should not infringe on the price territory of wave 2. This it has done as shown by the horizontal line joining (2) and (4) note that wave (4) has crossed over than line. I would also add that wave (3) doesn't look like a wave 3 to me either. So, it looks overall that we have finished wave A and are now somewhere in wave B before moving back up to the 91 level some months from now in a wave C.

I could be wrong, but chart interpretations are all about probabilities and the probability slightly favours a continued rally into early 2006. What would disprove this interpretation? Quite simply, we need to see a significant breach of the old low of 80.39 hit in late December (see chart). Until that point is reached, I am personally cautious but, as ever, a long-term bull on gold and silver!
Roland Watson

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