Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Nur die Ruhe bewahren...

I expected an increase in volatility in the gold price, and that is exactly what we are seeing. The gold price fell almost 2% on Wednesday, and continued declining Thursday morning as I was writing this commentary. I received numerous emails about conspiracies and manipulation in the gold market already; the gold price falls a few dollars and some people are convinced it has to be the result of manipulation. Markets do not go straight up, and the higher the price becomes, the more volatile it is going to be because emotions and expectations become more and more polarized.

I am still confident that the gold price is going much higher. In fact, due to the recent surge of monetary inflation in the US, I have increased my target price for gold to $830 an ounce.

In a previous article (http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Library/200304%20Gold.php) I showed that the gold price in US dollars is determined by the relative inflation rate of the dollar versus the inflation rate of gold. This is not only theory, but true in practice as well.

For the benefit of those who have not read the article, the inflation rate of gold is annual mine production as a percentage of the total above-ground supply of gold. The latter is essentially all the gold that has ever been mined, since most of it is still available in one form or another.

The average inflation rate of gold since 1971 has been about 1.6% per year while the average annual inflation rate of the US dollar -- as measured by the increase in M3 -- has been closer to 8%. It is no wonder, therefore, that the price of gold in US dollars is higher today than it was in 1971.

The gold price in US dollars kept pace with the projected gold price as determined by their relative inflation rates from 1971 up to about 1995. During the 1990s, the tremendous demand for US dollars from foreign investors seeking a safe haven from international currency crises lead to a surge in the US dollar exchange rate. This increase in the US dollar exchange rate depressed the gold price in US dollars, but not in most other currencies.

As the US dollar declines, as it has since 2001, the gold price in US dollars will return to its inflation-adjusted price, which by my calculations should be above $800 an ounce by now. But not all of the increase in the gold price will be due to a decline in the US dollar exchange rate because monetary inflation will continue to push the gold price higher.

So when I see the gold price decline, as it has this week, I am not worried.

The gold price increased by more than 13% since July (prior to this week's decline) without any decline in the US dollar to account for the increase. One possible explanation for the recent surge in the gold price could be the rapid acceleration of monetary inflation in US. Recall that the average increase in M3 since 1971 has been about 8% per year. During the past twelve months M3 has increase by 7.1%; however, if we annualize the increase in M3 over the past three months it comes to almost 11%, indicating an increase in the rate of inflation. Regardless of why US money supply is increasing so rapidly, the effect will be a higher US dollar gold price.

As I mentioned earlier, incorporating the recent surge in US monetary inflation increased my target for the gold price to over $800 an ounce. Therefore, until we see the gold price at those levels I believe there is upside in the market. However, I now suggest you read the first paragraph again: as the gold price increases, gold price volatility will also increase. Predicting short-term fluctuations in the gold price is a fool's game; betting on them is even worse.

Paul van Eeden

@ Edel Man

Ich stimme Deinen vorherigen Ausführungen zu, mit einer Ausnahme:

Die Immobilienblase in den USA ist m.E. schon geplatzt. Die Luft geht in einigen Teilmärkten schon raus. Die maßgebliche Indizes zeigen deutlich nach unten. Die großen private equity Fonds, die in Immobilien investieren, gehen schon aus dem markt und investieren immer stärker in Deutschland. Die Entwicklung wird sich beschleunigen. Ich bin überzeugt, daß wir im Frühjahr einen nicht mehr zu übersehenden Preisverfall erleben werden.

Die FED wird bis dahin die Zinsen noch ein Stückchen hochgeschraubt haben, die Kreditkartenunternehmen werden am 1. Januar verpflichtet, die monatliche Mindestrückzahlung von 2% auf 4% hochzunehmen. Die Kürzungen der Löhne, Pensionen, Arztkostenzuschüsse in den alten Industrien des Landes wird viele Bürger zwingen, ihre Häuser zu verkaufen. Das wird die Spirale richtig anheizen. Ich sehe auch nicht, wie die FED hier großartig manipulieren könnte. Zusammengefaßt, die Zeit läuft aus, für diejenigen, die noch nicht richtig investiert sind.

Noch eine kurze Bemerkungen zu den Kommentaren bei Preisrückgängen. Ich kann nun beim besten Willen nichts Ungewöhnliches daran erkennen, wenn es mal einen Preisrückschlag von 2% am Tag gibt. Wenn ich mich daran erinnere, wie ich ohne Sinn und Verstand 1998 - 2002 an den Aktienbörsen gezockt habe (Und mit mehr Glück als Verstand mit einem hauchdünnen Minus rausgekommen bin) . Da war es doch ganz normal, wenn DAX- Werte am Tag um 5% geschwankt sind.

Wurde hier nicht immer wieder auch gesagt, daß mit fortlaufendem Bullenmarkt die Volalität größer wird?
Bisher ist es doch im Gold- und Silbermarkt noch immer ziemlich "langweilig".

Schönes Wochenende!

Ich denke die erste Schlacht haben mit dem heutigen Tag die Gold und Silberfreaks um längen gewonnen. Standhaft und aufrecht haben wir uns verteidigt, nicht eine einzige Aktie verkauft. Voller Mut schauen wir in die Zukunft.

Habe es gestern schon gespuert, Gold und Silber schiesst heute zurueck,... mit Recht !!!

Der Bullrun ist noch lange nicht vorbei, Hindernisse gibt es immer.

Man darf nicht gleich alles hinwerfen an solchen Tagen und seinen Glauben nicht verlieren sowie Mut zeigen wenn der Bulle mal anders rennt als man glaubt.

"Ein positiv denkender Mensch weigert sich nicht,das Negative zur Kenntnis zu nehmen. Er weigert sich lediglich, sich ihm zu unterwerfen.“

Leider kann ich die Charts nicht einblenden, macht nichts !

http://www.321gold.com/editori…dini/orlandini102105.html

Gold Report

The Bull Lives!

Gold is the best kept secret in the world and you have to ask yourself why? We’ve made a move up from a low of US $251.00 an ounce in early 2001 to the recent high of US $483.10 an ounce (basis the December gold futures contract) and it didn’t even merit a footnote in the financial journals. General Motors rises 2% in a month and CNN goes gaga. This is very hard to rationalize! Fortunately the rationalization isn’t really of any great importance. The movement speaks for itself and really doesn’t need a cheerleader. In fact, the longer this Bull Market goes unnoticed, the more money its patrons are going to make. I know I’ve over simplified this a bit, but sometimes that’s a good thing. The average investor makes speculation in gold a lot harder than it has to be, but more on this later.

Back in my February 6th article about gold, I highlighted some of the reasons why I thought gold would continue to rise. I’ve now updated the list by adding a few more items to that list:

An out of control fiscal deficit.
Declining gold production,
M-3 now rising at a staggering US $1 trillion/year pace,
A complicated and growing mess in the Middle East,
Greenspan’s imminent retirement,
A huge and still growing trade deficit,
The Katrina clean-up costs, and
A non-productive U.S. economy based on debt and consumption.
There is absolutely nothing here to give you a warm and fuzzy feeling. Cold shivers running down the spine would be much closer to the truth. When I sit down and analyze the situation, I can’t help but wonder just what goes through the head of the average politician in Washington. Apparently grey matter is in short supply and pork is running amuck. George Bush has not vetoed one single spending bill in his more than five years in office. Not one! He’s signed them all. You mean to tell me that every single spending bill that Congress approves is an economic work of art? I think not! With all of the above in mind, I would like you to focus your attention on the following chart:

This is a monthly chart of gold and it’s almost as rare as a dodo bird. Most investors have never seen one and what’s worse, don’t even know that such a thing exists. I guess it fits in with our here-and-now mentality. Instant gratification, baby! Well, instant or not this graph is a textbook example of a Bull Market, and it’s a thing of beauty.

With respect to the Monthly Chart, you can see the recent peak at 483.00. Not shown is this week’s correction that’s taken us back down to today’s low of 463.20. This is just above the December 2004 and the area where we broke out from. The question of the day is are we beginning a new correction or is this just the pause that refreshes? I originally had a 489.00 price target for this leg up but have since changed my mind. Honestly, I no longer have a definite target but feel that a minimum of 512.00 is not unrealistic. Why? The chart above shows that we spent seven months consolidating around the 430.00 area and that’s a long time to consolidate for just a 12% rise. No, I have to believe that we have bigger fish to fry.

I want to talk a bit now about this particular Bull Market and the phases that have and will comprise the entire movement up. Then I want to put it into a time frame that the average investor can use as a guide. First the phases. The typical Bull Market can be divided into three phases: the first phase is characterized by the entrance of so-called “smart money”. These are large, sophisticated investors who like to get in at the bottom and sit through the entire move up. Think Rothschild! They can move tremendous amounts of money and never leave so much as a ripple in their wake, and they don’t just go in and buy everything in sight either. No, they’ll start with a relatively (to them) small position and accumulate on dips and over a period of months, sometimes years as is the current case with gold. It is my opinion that we’ve just finished the first phase of our Bull Market in gold. Think about this; these folks took four years to build a position. Meditate on the patience and discipline required to do such a thing! They wouldn’t go through such a laborious effort for a typical Bull Market that lasts twenty-four months. That alone tells you that this particular Bull is something special.

Next comes the second phase. This is where the Merrill Lynches and J. P. Morgan’s of the world suddenly discover that something big and mysterious and wonderful is happening, and their customers should reap some of the benefits. That’s where we’re at now; we’ve just begun the second phase, and this is typically the longest and most difficult of the three levels. In the Weekly Chart shown above, you could identify the beginning of the second leg with the September breakout above 450.00. Now you are going to see that the Bull will do everything in its power to get you off of his back. Also, getting back to the time issue, I want you to think about something. If the first phase lasted four years, and the second segment is typically the longest, then we won’t see the beginnings of the third stage until sometime in 2009! That’s a generational Bull Market, i.e., once in a lifetime, and that’s why the big money took such pains to establish their position

Now we come to the third, and what should be the last stage. This is where you pull into the local neighborhood gas station and the kid who fills your tank tells you about some junior mining share that he bought and how it rose 50% in a month. It’s the blow-off stage where we go higher, faster than anyone thought possible. It will also prove to be the period where the most money will be made. I suspect this stage will last anywhere from one to three years, into 2012, and should top out at US $2,500 an ounce. This is what a generational Bull Market looks like. Now I want to throw in a caveat. There just might be a forth stage whereby we see a collapse of economic, moral, and political structures in the U.S. and a disappearance of the dollar along with it. If and when that happens, all bets are off. We came close in 1907, and again in 1929, but we were a different nation then. The average man on the street had values, family mattered, and we produced something. My fear and suspicion is that this time we reach the tipping point and over she goes. The decline and fall of the Roman Empire comes to mind. Something so terrible that a whole nation could just up and disappear in what seems like an instant! Pretty nasty stuff, isn’t it?

That’s the best reason in the world to own gold and related gold shares. Why gold shares? Feast your eyes on the preceding daily chart of Goldcorp, Inc. (GG). It is in my opinion the bluest of the blue chip gold stocks. Note how it has risen 76% since late April of 2005 while physical gold has rallied 15%. There you have it, leverage! And with ten straight monthly dividends to boot. Gold will be the only real store of value but the quality mining shares won’t be far behind. Anyway, getting back to the forth phase, what do you think the Japanese and Chinese will say when they wake up one morning and realize all the bonds they hold aren’t worth the paper they’re written on? Better yet, what do you think they’ll do? World wide social unrest could very well be the order of the day. I don’t know that we’ll see a forth phase or not, but I wouldn’t bet against it. The best case scenario will be a realignment of world economic power and an acknowledgement of the problems that we’ve been sweeping under the carpet for years. Some sort of “arrangement” will be made and it will have the appearance of business as usual, but business will then become anything but usual. More fodder for the masses I suppose. In conclusion, gold was, is, and will continue to be the best investment for this millennium for many months to come. Your job as a speculator is to hang onto your position as opposing forces will use any and all methods to pry you away from it. Declines will happen, and we could even be in the midst of one now, but in 2009 it won’t have mattered one bit if gold declined US $13.40 or the last three days or not. The only thing that will matter is of in fact you own gold. Food for thought for a hungry mind.

Enrico Orlandini

I expected an increase in volatility in the gold price, and that is exactly what we are seeing. The gold price fell almost 2% on Wednesday, and continued declining Thursday morning as I was writing this commentary. I received numerous emails about conspiracies and manipulation in the gold market already; the gold price falls a few dollars and some people are convinced it has to be the result of manipulation. Markets do not go straight up, and the higher the price becomes, the more volatile it is going to be because emotions and expectations become more and more polarized.

I am still confident that the gold price is going much higher. In fact, due to the recent surge of monetary inflation in the US, I have increased my target price for gold to $830 an ounce.

In a previous article (http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Library/200304%20Gold.php) I showed that the gold price in US dollars is determined by the relative inflation rate of the dollar versus the inflation rate of gold. This is not only theory, but true in practice as well.

For the benefit of those who have not read the article, the inflation rate of gold is annual mine production as a percentage of the total above-ground supply of gold. The latter is essentially all the gold that has ever been mined, since most of it is still available in one form or another.

The average inflation rate of gold since 1971 has been about 1.6% per year while the average annual inflation rate of the US dollar -- as measured by the increase in M3 -- has been closer to 8%. It is no wonder, therefore, that the price of gold in US dollars is higher today than it was in 1971.

The gold price in US dollars kept pace with the projected gold price as determined by their relative inflation rates from 1971 up to about 1995. During the 1990s, the tremendous demand for US dollars from foreign investors seeking a safe haven from international currency crises lead to a surge in the US dollar exchange rate. This increase in the US dollar exchange rate depressed the gold price in US dollars, but not in most other currencies.

As the US dollar declines, as it has since 2001, the gold price in US dollars will return to its inflation-adjusted price, which by my calculations should be above $800 an ounce by now. But not all of the increase in the gold price will be due to a decline in the US dollar exchange rate because monetary inflation will continue to push the gold price higher.

So when I see the gold price decline, as it has this week, I am not worried.

The gold price increased by more than 13% since July (prior to this week's decline) without any decline in the US dollar to account for the increase. One possible explanation for the recent surge in the gold price could be the rapid acceleration of monetary inflation in US. Recall that the average increase in M3 since 1971 has been about 8% per year. During the past twelve months M3 has increase by 7.1%; however, if we annualize the increase in M3 over the past three months it comes to almost 11%, indicating an increase in the rate of inflation. Regardless of why US money supply is increasing so rapidly, the effect will be a higher US dollar gold price.

As I mentioned earlier, incorporating the recent surge in US monetary inflation increased my target for the gold price to over $800 an ounce. Therefore, until we see the gold price at those levels I believe there is upside in the market. However, I now suggest you read the first paragraph again: as the gold price increases, gold price volatility will also increase. Predicting short-term fluctuations in the gold price is a fool's game; betting on them is even worse.

Paul van Eeden

Le Metropole Members,

Eric Hommelberg has served commentary at The Little
Bear Table entitled, "HUI - Not Dead Yet !"

"Sold your gold shares this week ? Afraid of the high
COT open interest numbers ? Too many analysts calling for a major top ? So therefore there must be a top ? Well,
since nobody can predict the future maybe they're right.

Sure enough the HUI - crash of this week was a scary one
and yes, the HUI could drop even a bit further from here
but the question arises if this will be a major top indeed. Should we prepare for another down-cycle here or could
this be the last short correction before taking out its
long time resistance at 250 ?"

Good one to read, especially for those who are nervous
with their retreading gold share positions.

Gold is making new highs these days. Whenever gold made a new major high before it did so by hitting hard Gold of at least 1.13 or more. Since current Gold reading is just a mere 1.07 it ain’t very likely this will mark the new major top.

Every previous major top was being reached after a minimum of 4 months after the Gold chart had flashed a major ‘BUY’ (green zones). Since the latest major ‘BUY’ signal generated by the Gold chart is only just 3 month young it ain’t likely that we’ ve hit the new major top already.

Conclusion : The Gold/Gold charts don’t rule out a further advance of gold. If Gold would reach a new major ‘HIGH’ based on previous rGold readings then we shouldn’t be surprised to see $500 by end of this year. (1.15 * 434) (1.15 is an average of previous Gold highs and 434 gold’s current 200 dma)

A new high in Gold could launch the HUI beyond its long-term resistance at 250 thereby providing it a free ride towards the 300+ area…

Member's auto-logon:
<a href="http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com/entrance.cfm"> Le Metropole Cafe</a>
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/entrance.cfm

Wie auch immer ""Have a nice weekend""

Es geht immer auf und ab, man muss da cool bleiben.

Whoa Nellie! :))

Gold Goes Limit Up ($6 Rule)

The six most important words
"I admit that I was wrong!"

The five most important words
"You did a great job."

The four most important words
"What do you think?"

The three most important words
"May I help?"

The two most important words
"Thank You!"

The most important word
"We."

The least important word
"I"

GO GATA!!!

Once again the AM Fix came in higher than the prior Comex close at $463.15, up $2.25. This continued pattern tells us the physical market remains firm, as The Gold Cartel turns the market lower to flush out the moving average black box funds. This became further evident when the PM Fix came in at $462.85. Within minutes after the PM Fix the crooks took gold down on the day on the Comex to intimidate and flush out spec longs. The cabal forces continued to operate their criminal trading operation with impunity.

That is not an over the top statement. I know someone who went down to Washington this year and met with a CFTC attorney regarding a market manipulation issue. The attorney told him flat out that even if he was correct, this Administration would do NOTHING about it.

The dollar was weak and US interest rates were falling, when all of a sudden, for NO APPARENT REASON, the dollar soared. The euro dropped from 120.50 to 119.50. The yen made new lows for the move. The wire services said they could not explain why the dollar was doing what it was. MIDAS suggested they take a crash course on the markets in Planet GATAville to understand what is going on here. The dollar move up today was nothing more than blatant central bank intervention. The Orwellians are doing all they can to prevent a stock market debacle. Next week we ought to find out what is what re the potentially most devastating Washington political scandal ever. It ought to dwarf the scandals of the Nixon and Clinton Administrations. The effect on the stock market should be profound if indictments are handed out to those close to Bush and Cheney.

When the dollar soared, the specs leaned on gold. However, The Gold Cartel and friends were waiting for them and took the opportunity to cover. Deutsche Bank and JPM led the buying parade along with HSBC.

The way I see it The Gold Cartel has maneuvered just the way I thought they would and pulled another Katrina when they flushed 50,000 specs out of the market, right before it rose $40 an ounce. The gold open interest fell 9204 contracts to 341,466, or about 30,000 in three days. Probably fell again today. As mentioned, the moving average funds sold, but the macro funds want to buy more. These funds are competing with The Gold Cartel on these breaks and are frustrating the cabal’s ability to cover and bring the price down like they used to.

AND, same comment from me. The Gold Cartel has run the same play 75 times in a row. The other team (the Bulls) brought in a new defensive unit (macro funds) to stop this play. These muscular funds know what The Gold Cartel is going to do because they always do the same thing. Finally, the smart specs have wised up to their constant drill and are beating the bums are their own game.

Thus, when the bums and the Bulls went to buy at the same time, gold went limit up ($6 Rule of $6.60) before The Gold Cartel put the standard break on the move higher to prevent too much excitement developing over bullion.

The gold price is all about the cash market and The Gold Cartel gradually losing control of their wretched price manipulation scheme. What will the mainstream gold pundits and Planet Wall Street attribute today’s rally too …Falling oil prices? The rising dollar? The Google move up? All horse manure.

Lordy, Lordy, look at what Dow Jones just came up with as the reason for the gold, advance:

1735 GMT [Dow Jones] - Comex gold and silver closed higher after a late day boost from a short-covering rally. Traders say news of a suspicious package outside the U.S. Capitol triggered the rally after the metals hovered near the unchanged level for most of the session. –END-

That is beyond pitiful. Is that why the DOW rallied 80 points off its low too at mid-day? The mainstream gold pundits have stooped to a new low in their explanation of the gold market.

The Gold Cartel wants to cut their exposure going into next week as the scandal of the century could surface and create havoc in Washington and for the Bush Administration.

The PPT and Gold Cartel were everywhere today and were operating on a massive scale. Treasury note yields fell all morning (despite the talk all week long re inflation and how they would fight it). The dollar took off first for no reason once European trading closed. Simultaneously, the DOW rallied sharply, as did the rest of the market, at the same time gold shot up $5 in minutes. It could not have been clearer what happened.

Why did gold move up during all of this? Because The Gold Cartel had to make their move when the moving average specs were going the other way. They ran out of time because of the macro fund competition.

Silver came back after dropping a dime, but had no oomph.
The silver open interest fell 2459 contracts to 134,034, which is still over its multi-decade high set not long ago.

Just received what I consider to be SUPER BULLISH information from the Comex floor after the close. Seems they are very impressed how orderly the move down was and with the flushing out of the longs. No big deal there, but they tell me gold rocketed late on very little volume. There was nothing for sale.

WHY: Because The Gold Cartel wanted to buy, not sell at that point. This left the market void of any serious selling until the $6 Rule kicked in and the cabal showed up to slow down the rise. The Comex floor believes it won’t take anything near a 30,000 to 40,000 rise in open interest to take gold up the $20 it just came down. This sets the stage for the market to roar towards $500 next week as the longs overwhelm The Gold Cartel and other shorts.

One other SUPER POSITIVE note:

Gold roared late in the day, not in the opening as has been the norm on the way up. We have another change in the pattern here is another indication The Gold Cartel is in trouble.

As a follow up to our Deep Throat information, you will recall this source told us the lease problems were being dealt with and negotiated with the probable outcome in 2 to 3 weeks. In that regard it is no surprise to see gold do what it did today. The Gold Cartel and friends have a tiger by the detail with no easy solution.

Ready to rocket: ?

Ich stimme mittel- und langfristig vollkommen damit überein.

Kurzfristig jedoch:

"We're not out of the woods, not yet"

You're right Germoney, a good forecaster here too.

"We're not out of the woods, not yet"

Just hang in Teddy !

Der Teddie wäre etwas für meinen Jüngsten...

und die Dame ... bin seit 18 Jahren verheiratet, gemeinsames
Motto ist: "Hungrig schauen darf man sich überall,
aber gegessen wird Zuhause"

Gruss nach SA

Germoney